TACR: Regional: Preparing the Second Northern Greater Mekong
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report Project Number: 41444-01 December 2010 Regional: Preparing the Second Northern Greater Mekong Subregion Transport Network Improvement Project (Financed by the Japan Special Fund) Prepared by Dainichi Consultant Inc, Japan In association with Denac Associates, Canada Lao Consulting Group, Lao PDR Hanoi Design and Consulting Joint Stock Company Viet Nam For the Ministry of Public Works and Transport, Lao PDR and the Ministry of Transport, Viet Nam This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Governments concerned, and ADB and the Governments cannot be held liable for its contents. All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design. COSO/80-177 FFIINNAALL RREEPPOORRTT Dsc00088.jpg Dsc00088.jpg SSSuuuppppppllleeemmmeeennntttaaarrryyy AAAppppppeeennndddiiixxx Vol.5 Traffic Analysis and Economic Analysis DAINICHI CONSULTANT INC, Japan In association with DENAC ASSOCIATES, CANADA LAO CONSULTING GROUP, Lao PDR Preparation of Second Northern GMS Transport Network Improvement Project Supplementary Appendix Volume 5 Traffic and Economics PREPARING THE SECOND NORTHERN GMS TRANSPORT NETWORK IMPROVEMENT PROJECT ADB TA 6478 REG Supplementary Appendix Volume 5 Traffic and Economics Report July 2010 DAINICHI CONSULTANT INC, Japan in association DENAC ASSOCIATES, CANADA LAO CONSULTING GROUP, Lao PDR Hanoi Design and Consulting Joint Stock Company, Vietnam 1 i Preparation of Second Northern GMS Transport Network Improvement Project Supplementary Appendix Volume 5 Traffic and Economics ii Preparation of Second Northern GMS Transport Network Improvement Project Supplementary Appendix Volume 5 Traffic and Economics TAABLE OF CONTENTS Project Roads Map .............................................................................................................. i Rural Roads Map ................................................................................................................. ii Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................ iii PART ONE TRAFFIC STUDIES ........................................................................................ 1 A. Traffic Analysis, Vietnam .......................................................................................... 1 B. Traffic Analysis, Vietnam ........................................................................................ 26 Annexe 1– Forms and Instructions Used for Origin–Destination Surveys ..................... 52 PART TWO ECONOMIC BACKGRAUND ....................................................................... 61 1. The Potential for Economic Corridor Development ..................................................... 61 A. Location and Characteristics of Project Corridors .................................................. 61 B. Socio-Economic Situation and Economic Potential of Project Area: Northern Corridor ..................................................................................................................... 65 C. Socio-Economic Situation and Economic Potential of Project Area: Eastern Corridor ..................................................................................................................... 66 PART THREE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ........................................................................... 70 1. General Approach ....................................................................................................... 70 2. Economic Prospects .................................................................................................. 70 3. Traffic Forecasts ........................................................................................................ 70 4. Vehicle Operating Costs ............................................................................................. 71 5. The Economic Evaluation .......................................................................................... 72 6. Results ........................................................................................................................ 72 PART FOUR ROAD MAINTENANCE FINANCING ........................................................ 74 1. General Approach ....................................................................................................... 74 A. Vietnam .................................................................................................................. 74 B. Lao PDR ................................................................................................................. 74 iii Preparation of Second Northern GMS Transport Network Improvement Project Supplementary Appendix Volume 5 Traffic and Economics ABBREVIATIONS ADB – Asian Development Bank DOR – Department of Roads (Laos) DPWT – Provincial Department of Public Works and Transport (Lao PDR) EIA – Environmental Impact Assessment EIRR – Economic Internal Rate of Return GDP – Gross Domestic Product GIS – Geographical Information System HDM – Highway Development and Management program LRD – Local Roads Department NGO – Non - governmental Organization NPV – Net Present Value MPWT – Ministry of Public Works and Transport PDOT – Provincial Department of Transport PIR – Poverty Impact Ratio PMU – Project Management Unit PRC – Peoples Republic of China PRMMS – Provincial Road Maintenance Management System RAD – Road Administration Department (Laos) REA – Rapid Environmental Assessment RMS – Road Management System TA – Technical Assistance TEDI – Transport Engineering Design Institute TOR – Terms of Reference VOC – Vehicle Operating Costs iv Preparation of Second Northern GMS Transport Network Improvement Project Supplementary Appendix Volume 5 Traffic and Economics PART ONE TRAFFIC STUDIES A. Traffic Analysis, Vietnam Available Records 1. The available traffic counts on the project roads were collected from Thanh Hoa province. They cover the years 2006 to 2008. Classified counts were undertaken at five sites on the project road (217), during three days at each site. 2. At the Thanh Hoa end there were over 700 vehicles/day in 2008, plus over 1800 motor cycles and 1200 bicycles. The numbers gradually lessen and by Canh Nang (Km 93.8) the flows have more than halved. There was strong growth along all these sections, however, averaging between 13% and 24% a year over three-year period. Project Traffic Counts 3. During April 2009 the project conducted classified traffic counts at six locations. Four of these were at similar locations to those of the earlier counts (within 4 km), three of them along the same stretch of road. They can thus be used to indicate traffic growth between 2008 and 2009. In the fifth case, a site at Km 126 rather than Km 141 was selected. Finally a new site was chosen, at the Do Len junction where Road 217 departs from Road 1. This allowed a directional count to be made at the junction, to assist with junction design. 4. Small variations in traffic count location may affect the numbers of motorcycles significantly, as these are predominately used for short local trips which may or may not pass the station. In Vietnam most vehicles with four wheels or more are used for long journeys and a small shift in the traffic counting location normally has a very small effect on the count. 5. The counts were undertaken over two days (17 and 18 April 2009), 07:00 t0 19:00. At one site (Km 103.2) the count on 17 April was extended over 24 hours until 07:00 next morning. From this, factors were derived for each vehicle type to convert 12-hour counts into 24-hour counts, and these factors were applied at each survey point. The resulting estimates of the average 24-hour traffic level are summarised together with those of the earlier counts in FIGURE 1.1. FIGURE 1.2 compares 2009 with 2008 and shows the trends in annual traffic growth since 2006 (motorcycles excluded). 6. The counts indicate average annual vehicle traffic growth rates between 16% and 30% in recent years. The fastest growth has been on each side of Cam Thuy. This town is located on the Ho Chi Minh Highway which has been recently constructed and provides a direct road link to the north and south. It was completed in the Cam Thuy area in 2003. 7. In general, passenger traffic (cars and buses) has been growing consistently. Freight also shows growth at the western end of the road, where the O–D survey reveals that much of the traffic is bamboo from the mountain areas. This is increasingly used in paper manufacture. East of Canh Nang, however, the bamboo is a smaller proportion of the total traffic. Freight traffic here appears to have been static or declining between 2008 and 2009, no doubt affected by the world economic downturn. 1 Preparation of Second Northern GMS Transport Network Improvement Project Supplementary Appendix Volume 5 Traffic and Economics Figure 1.1 CLASSIFIED TRAFFIC COUNTS, 2006-09 V1. ROAD 217, JUNCTION WITH ROAD 1 (Km 0.0) Average of two days Motorised, Year b MC PC LDV LGV MGV HGV VHGV Bus Other Total ≥4 wheels 2009 2120 90 6 258 50 12 5 61 11 2613 482 V1. ROAD 217, EAST OF VINH LOC (Km 27.3) Average of three days* Motorised, Year b MC PC LDV LGV MGV HGV VHGV Bus Other Total ≥4 wheels 2006 1006 1289 72 17 38 72 49 37 15 42 2637 300 2007 1344 1442 127 30 67 72 65 52 20 21 3240 433 2008 1240 1824 203 71 164 157 58 26 59 3 3805 738 2009 (Km 25.5) 1840 70 2 259 56 12 1 71 1 2312 471 Average annual growth, % 11.0% 12.6% -0.9% -51.0% 89.6% -8.0% -37.4% -70.0% 67.9%