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District Population Projections

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District Population Projections Ministry of Planning and Investment Lao Statistics Bureau District Population Projections Supported By: United Nations Population Fund Vientiane Capital, September 2019 District Population Projections Committees 2015-2035 Steering Committee 1. Mr Samaichan Boupha, Head of the Lao Statistics Bureau, Vice Minister of Planning and Investment 2. Ms Phonesaly Souksavath, Deputy Head of the Lao Statistics Bureau Technical Committee 1. Ms Thilakha Chanthalanouvong, General Director of Social Statistics Department, Lao Statistics Bureau 2. Ms Phoungmala Lasasy, Deputy Head of Register Statistics Division, Social Statistics Department Projection Committee 1. Mr Bounpan Inthavongthong, Technical Staff, Register Statistics Division, Social Statistics Department Supported By: United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) District Population Projections 2015-2035 I Forward Population projections are extremely important for effective management and administration of population growth and related demographic issues. If population projections are as accurate as possible, the government and policy makers will be informed to formulate policies and develop plans with greater precision in order to provide necessary and effective population services such as social services and social welfare. Due to this importance and necessity the Lao Statistics Bureau, under the Ministry of Planning and Investment has conducted this population projection by using the baseline data from the fourth Population and Housing Census in 2015. Population projections demonstrate a calculation of the population’s size and characteristics in the future. It is not possible to guarantee one hundred percent accurate estimations, even if the best available methodology was utilized in the estimation. Therefore, it is necessary for Lao Statistics Bureau to improve the population projections periodically in order to obtain a more accurate picture of the population in the future, which is estimated using data from several surveys such as Lao Social Indicator Survey and other surveys. Finally, we hope that the report will serve as a useful source of information and data for policy makers at all central and local levels, and that this population projection will be used to formulate policy and development plans and periodically monitor the social economic development plan to improve facilities and welfare of all population groups including ethnic groups in the whole country. We would like to thank the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) for financial support in producing and disseminating statistical data. Head of Lao Statistics Bureau, Vice Minister of Planning and Investment District Population Projections 2015-2035 III Contents Forward ..................................................................................................................................................................... III Chapter 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Overview ................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Objectives ................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 2. Methodology and Data Requirements........................................................................................................ 3 2.1 Base Population ........................................................................................................................................................ 3 2.2 Fertility Levels ........................................................................................................................................................... 4 2.3 Assumptions ............................................................................................................................................................. 4 Chapter 3. Result of Projection .................................................................................................................................... 6 3.1 Vientiane Capital ....................................................................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Phongsaly Province ................................................................................................................................................. 22 3.3 Luangnamtha Province ............................................................................................................................................ 35 3.4 Odomxay Province .................................................................................................................................................. 44 3.5 Bokeo Province ........................................................................................................................................................ 56 3.7 Huaphanh Province ................................................................................................................................................. 84 3.8 Xayaboury Province ................................................................................................................................................. 99 3.9 Xiengkhuang Province ........................................................................................................................................... 116 3.10 Vientiane Province .............................................................................................................................................. 128 3.11 Borikhamxay Province ......................................................................................................................................... 145 3.12 Khammuane Province ......................................................................................................................................... 157 3.13 Savannakhet Province ......................................................................................................................................... 172 3.14 Saravane Province ............................................................................................................................................... 194 Chapter 4. Summary and Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 248 IV District Population Projections 2015-2035 Chapter 1. Introduction 1.1 Overview The Fourth Population and Housing Census of the Government of Lao PDR was conducted by the Lao Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Planning and Investment in March 2015 under the Decision of the Prime Minister. The objective of the census was to collect a database of population and housing data from across the country. This data is extremely important for policy formulation, planning, monitoring and evaluation of the social economic development plan at all central and local levels, as well as the 8th Five Year National Socio-Economic Development Plan (2016-2020) and the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Population information is extremely important for population management and monitoring issues that are related to the population and it is important in formulating development plans and population policy. Usually the population information is gathered from administration reporting, population registration and the Population and Housing Census. In Lao PDR population reporting by the administration is under the data collection improvement process and does not currently have the official population data and the population registration process is not yet clear. Therefore the Population and Housing Census is conducted every 10 years to collect data. The Department of Social Statistics, Lao Statistics Bureau has conducted Population Projections at National and Provincial level. These were issued by the Head of Lao Statistics Bureau, Vice Minister of Planning and Investment in the meeting organised on Lao Statistics Day, 27th June 2018. This population projection for 2015-2045 is limited to provincial level. It cannot be used for district level. This is because there is a lack of population data from administration reporting and population registration. However, district level data is required particularly by the education and sport sector, health sector and other sectors in their formulation of development plans and policy. The longer the period of population projection, the greater the level of inaccuracy. The population projections at the National and Provincial level are projected in the period from 2015- 2045, but the district population projections are projected for the period of 20 years from 2015- 2035. This is to reduce the level of inaccuracy in the population projections. 1.2 Objectives The following are the objectives of district population projections: - To provide data for formulation of development plans and policy related to population in each period; - To be a reference for management-services, service providers and social welfare of all populations; District Population Projections 2015-2035 1 - To provide data for estimating requirements for education such as: number of classrooms, teacher, text books and school materials based on the school age population; - To be a reference for investment
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