Ministry of Planning and Investment

Lao Statistics Bureau

District Population Projections

Supported By: United Nations Population Fund

Vientiane Capital, September 2019

District Population Projections Committees 2015-2035 Steering Committee 1. Mr Samaichan Boupha, Head of the Lao Statistics Bureau, Vice Minister of Planning and Investment 2. Ms Phonesaly Souksavath, Deputy Head of the Lao Statistics Bureau Technical Committee

1. Ms Thilakha Chanthalanouvong, General Director of Social Statistics Department, Lao Statistics Bureau 2. Ms Phoungmala Lasasy, Deputy Head of Register Statistics Division, Social Statistics Department Projection Committee

1. Mr Bounpan Inthavongthong, Technical Staff, Register Statistics Division, Social Statistics Department Supported By: United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)

District Population Projections 2015-2035 I

Forward Population projections are extremely important for effective management and administration of population growth and related demographic issues. If population projections are as accurate as possible, the government and policy makers will be informed to formulate policies and develop plans with greater precision in order to provide necessary and effective population services such as social services and social welfare. Due to this importance and necessity the Lao Statistics Bureau, under the Ministry of Planning and Investment has conducted this population projection by using the baseline data from the fourth Population and Housing Census in 2015.

Population projections demonstrate a calculation of the population’s size and characteristics in the future. It is not possible to guarantee one hundred percent accurate estimations, even if the best available methodology was utilized in the estimation. Therefore, it is necessary for Lao Statistics Bureau to improve the population projections periodically in order to obtain a more accurate picture of the population in the future, which is estimated using data from several surveys such as Lao Social Indicator Survey and other surveys.

Finally, we hope that the report will serve as a useful source of information and data for policy makers at all central and local levels, and that this population projection will be used to formulate policy and development plans and periodically monitor the social economic development plan to improve facilities and welfare of all population groups including ethnic groups in the whole country. We would like to thank the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) for financial support in producing and disseminating statistical data.

Head of Lao Statistics Bureau, Vice Minister of Planning and Investment

District Population Projections 2015-2035 III

Contents Forward ...... III Chapter 1. Introduction ...... 1 1.1 Overview ...... 1 1.2 Objectives ...... 1 Chapter 2. Methodology and Data Requirements...... 3 2.1 Base Population ...... 3 2.2 Fertility Levels ...... 4 2.3 Assumptions ...... 4 Chapter 3. Result of Projection ...... 6 3.1 Capital ...... 7 3.2 ...... 22 3.3 Luangnamtha Province ...... 35 3.4 Odomxay Province ...... 44 3.5 ...... 56 3.7 Huaphanh Province ...... 84 3.8 Xayaboury Province ...... 99 3.9 Xiengkhuang Province ...... 116 3.10 ...... 128 3.11 Borikhamxay Province ...... 145 3.12 Khammuane Province ...... 157 3.13 Province ...... 172 3.14 Saravane Province ...... 194 Chapter 4. Summary and Conclusion ...... 248

IV District Population Projections 2015-2035

Chapter 1. Introduction

1.1 Overview

The Fourth Population and Housing Census of the Government of Lao PDR was conducted by the Lao Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Planning and Investment in March 2015 under the Decision of the Prime Minister. The objective of the census was to collect a database of population and housing data from across the country. This data is extremely important for policy formulation, planning, monitoring and evaluation of the social economic development plan at all central and local levels, as well as the 8th Five Year National Socio-Economic Development Plan (2016-2020) and the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Population information is extremely important for population management and monitoring issues that are related to the population and it is important in formulating development plans and population policy. Usually the population information is gathered from administration reporting, population registration and the Population and Housing Census. In Lao PDR population reporting by the administration is under the data collection improvement process and does not currently have the official population data and the population registration process is not yet clear. Therefore the Population and Housing Census is conducted every 10 years to collect data.

The Department of Social Statistics, Lao Statistics Bureau has conducted Population Projections at National and Provincial level. These were issued by the Head of Lao Statistics Bureau, Vice Minister of Planning and Investment in the meeting organised on Lao Statistics Day, 27th June 2018. This population projection for 2015-2045 is limited to provincial level. It cannot be used for district level. This is because there is a lack of population data from administration reporting and population registration. However, district level data is required particularly by the education and sport sector, health sector and other sectors in their formulation of development plans and policy.

The longer the period of population projection, the greater the level of inaccuracy. The population projections at the National and Provincial level are projected in the period from 2015- 2045, but the district population projections are projected for the period of 20 years from 2015- 2035. This is to reduce the level of inaccuracy in the population projections.

1.2 Objectives

The following are the objectives of district population projections:

- To provide data for formulation of development plans and policy related to population in each period; - To be a reference for management-services, service providers and social welfare of all populations;

District Population Projections 2015-2035 1

- To provide data for estimating requirements for education such as: number of classrooms, teacher, text books and school materials based on the school age population; - To be a reference for investment projections for basic health care services; - To project the number of jobs needed to cater to the demands of the labor force in the future; - To be used in restructuring resource allocation based on the population size in each region; - To be used in business for projecting product needs and business services.

2 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Chapter 2. Methodology and Data Requirements

Population projections can be calculated using different methods. These district population projections are based on the age-cohort component. This methodology is commonly used because it is more accurate that other methods. In addition the population projections method can identify demographic indicators. This model is based on the factors that influence population size such as births, deaths and migration. The spectrum computer program is used to project the population. This program is commonly used for population projections in many countries. This method uses the population balancing equation.

(1) Pn = Po + Births - Deaths + In- migrants – Out-migrants where n is the length of the interval for which the projection is made and where the births, deaths and migration are the total number of events that occur during the interval. The equation (1) above can be written as:

(2) Pn = (Po - deaths) + (In- migrants – Out-migrants) + Births where (Po - deaths) refers to the survivors of the living population during the initial period and (In-migants – out-migrants) refers to net migrants. In the cohort projection method the equation can be applied to any age and sex cohort except that the cohort of birth does not come into play. Hence the equation that applies is:

(3) Pn (x+n,s) = Po (x,s)- deaths (x,s) + net-migrants (x,s) Where x stands for age and s stands for sex. This means that the projected population of a given age and sex cohort is equal to the initial population of death cohort when they were n years younger, less the number of deaths among them and plus the net migrants. Meanwhile the survivors among the births that occur during the interval become the youngest age and sex cohort of the total population (Pn).

2.1 Base Population

District population projections are derived by adjusting data from National and Provincial population projections. The adjusted base population of district projections are not perfect because the enumerated population in the fouth Population and Housing Census 2015 contains errors. The population was adjusted from 6,492,228 to 6,671,680 to reflect the total Lao population in the middle of 2015. The base population of Distict population projections has been adjusted to align with National and Provincial population projections. Therefore the formula is as follows:

′ , , = , × , , (1)

𝑚𝑚 𝑛𝑛 𝑥𝑥 𝑚𝑚 𝑥𝑥′ 𝑚𝑚 𝑛𝑛 𝑥𝑥 𝑃𝑃 𝑅𝑅 , 𝑃𝑃 , = (2) 𝑚𝑚, 𝑥𝑥 𝑚𝑚 𝑥𝑥 𝑃𝑃 ′ 𝑅𝑅 𝑚𝑚 𝑥𝑥 , , = Mid-year base population Provincial (m)𝑃𝑃 District (n) and age group (x)

𝑚𝑚 𝑛𝑛 𝑥𝑥 𝑃𝑃 , , = , ( ) ( ) ( ) 𝑃𝑃𝑚𝑚 𝑛𝑛 𝑥𝑥 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃District𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 Population𝑚𝑚 𝐷𝐷 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷Projections𝑛𝑛 2015-2035𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 3 𝑥𝑥

, = ( ) ( )

𝑚𝑚 𝑥𝑥 𝑅𝑅′ , =𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑚𝑚 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 𝑥𝑥 ( ) ( )

𝑚𝑚 𝑥𝑥 𝑃𝑃 , 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑚𝑚 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 𝑥𝑥 = ( ) ( ) 𝑃𝑃𝑚𝑚 𝑥𝑥 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑚𝑚 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 𝑥𝑥 2.2 Fertility Levels

The results of the fourth Population and Housing Census 2015 shows a variance in fertility rates at district level and overall for each province. Therefore, adjustments in fertility rates are as follows:

1. Use unadjusted data from the fourth Population and Housing Census 2015 to calculate the fertility rates by age group for each district 2. Use the adjusted total Provincial fertility rate to calculate the rate of child birth in the province based on the proportion of births in each age group 3. Project the number of child births from women of child bearing age in each district to calculate fertility rates by age as follows:

′ , = × , (3)

𝑝𝑝 𝑖𝑖 𝑖𝑖 𝑝𝑝 𝑖𝑖 𝐵𝐵 𝑘𝑘 ′𝐵𝐵, , = (4) 𝐵𝐵 𝑝𝑝 ,𝑖𝑖 ′ , Adjusted child births of district𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝑝𝑝 𝑖𝑖 (p)𝑊𝑊 and𝑝𝑝 𝑖𝑖 age group (i) , Unadjusted child births of district (p)and age group (i) 𝐵𝐵 𝑝𝑝 𝑖𝑖 𝑝𝑝 𝑖𝑖 𝐵𝐵 Adjusted child births of province by age group (i) = Unadjusted child births of province by age group (i) 𝑘𝑘𝑃𝑃 , age specific fertility rates district and age group number of women of district and age goup 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴, 𝐴𝐴𝑝𝑝 𝑖𝑖 − 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑝𝑝 𝑖𝑖 𝑝𝑝 𝑖𝑖 4. 𝑊𝑊Add the adjusted ASFR from each district𝑝𝑝 together 𝑖𝑖and multiply by 5 equals the Provincial TFR and the TFR in 2015 for each district. These correspond with the number of district adjusted child births.

2.3 Assumptions

The assumptions used for the district-level population projections are based on the following three assumptions that underlie the following demographic factors: births, deaths, and migrations:

 Fertility Assumptions: The districts that have high total fertility rates at the beginning of the projection are projected to experience a rapid decline in fertility rates during the first

4 District Population Projections 2015-2035

decade of the projection. Fertility rates will continue to decline at a slower pace until the fertility replacement rate is reached. In contrast, for districts with low-fertility at the beginning of the projection, the fertility rate will decline slowly. The sex ratio of newborns is defined at the same level across the country: 105 males per 100 females.  Mortality Assumptions: The general assumption is that the mortality condition will improve in all provinces during the entire projection period leading to a continuous rise in life expectancy at birth for both males and females. District population projections are based on the average life expectancy at the same level as the provincial population projection.  Migration Assumptions: The district population projections include the net migration assumptions between districts as a factor for the projection. The data is derived from the population movement in the 10 year period from 2005 to 2015. The place of birth for children under the age of 10 years is used to calculate trends in movement. This is adjusted to be in line with the net provincial migration rate.

District Population Projections 2015-2035 5

Chapter 3. Result of Projection

The base population data used in the District Population Projections is projected for the mid- year population 2015. Therefore, the results of all projections is the mid-year population. This is to ensure it is consistent with other population projections.

The district population projections are conducted after the provincial population projections. Therefore, the results of the district-level population projections are adjusted so the sum is the same as the provincial-level population projections. The following is the formula for the adjustment:

′′ = × ′ (5)

𝑖𝑖 𝑖𝑖 𝑃𝑃 𝑟𝑟 𝑃𝑃 = (6) ′ 𝑃𝑃 ′′ Adjusted𝑟𝑟 projection∑ 𝑃𝑃 𝑖𝑖 result of the district (i)

𝑃𝑃′ 𝑖𝑖 Unadjusted projection result of the district (i) 𝑃𝑃 𝑖𝑖 Provincial population projection result 𝑃𝑃 Adjusted provincial population ratio

The𝑟𝑟 results of the district population projections report show the district projections for each province to compare for years 2015, 2025 and 2035. This report also shows the fertility rate projections by district with a table detailing the results of the district population projections.

6 District Population Projections 2015-2035

3.1 Vientiane Capital 3.1.1 Population Projection by District Table 1.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

Percentage District 2015 2025 2035 Change

Vientiane Capital 844,017 1,048,170 1,233,301 46.1 Chanthabuly 70,941 83,367 94,219 32.8 Sikhottabong 124,345 152,396 177,782 43.0 Xaysetha 119,987 149,656 176,255 46.9 Sisattanak 67,282 79,754 90,728 34.8 Naxaithong 77,528 98,299 117,331 51.3 Xaythany 202,171 267,089 327,371 61.9 Hadxayfong 100,438 121,003 139,336 38.7 Sangthong 30,475 37,071 42,575 39.7 Pakngum 50,849 59,535 67,705 33.1

Vientiane Capital is the economic and administrative center of the Lao PDR with facilities incuding schools, hospitals, factories and other services. This factor promotes in-migration of the population to obtain education and find employment, which has resulted in the rapid increase in the population of Vientiane Capital. In mid-year 2015 the population in Vientiane Capital was 844,017, which will continue to increase to 1,048,170 in 2025 and to 1,233,300 in 2035, or an increase of about 46 percent compared to 2015. From the 2015 population projections has the largest population in Vientiane Capital. The district had a population of 202,171, which has increased to more than 327,371 people. This represents an increase of 125,199 people over 20 years or more that 62 percent compared to 2015. population is projected to increase from 77,528 in 2015 to 98,299 in 2025 and 117,331 in 2035, which represents an increase of 51 percent compared to 2015. As a percentage of the population, growth is lowest in which is projected to increase by 33 percent over 20 years. This is probably because Chanthabuly is the central district of Vientiane Capital which is already crowded. As a result fewer people migrate to this district than other districts in Vientiane Capital.

District Population Projections 2015-2035 7

3.1.2 Vientiane Fertility Rate

In 2015 the total fertility rate (TFR) in Vientiane Capital was lower than in all other provinces. The overall fertility rate in Vientiane Capital was 2.2, with females of reproductive age (15-49) having an average of 2 children. In 2015 Sangthong and Pakgnum District had the highest fertility rates, both at 2.8. These two districts are projected to reach the replacement fertility rate between 2025 and 2035. These two districts also have the highest total fertility rate in Vientiane Capital at 1.9. This means in 2035 women of child bearing age (15-49) in Sangthong and Pakgnum District will have an average of 2 children or less. The districts with the lowest fertility rates are Sisattanak and Chanthabuly. In 2015 these two districts had Total Fertility Rates of 1.8 and 1.9 respectively. This means the women at child bearing age (15-49) in these two districts have an average of less than 2 children. Even though these two districts have the lowest Total Fertility Rates, the rate will continue to decline. In 2035 these two districts will have the lowest Total Fertility Rate at 1.6 per women of child bearing age.

Table 1.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by district 2015-2035

Districts 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Chanthabuly 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 Sikhottabong 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 Xaysetha 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 Sisattanak 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 Naxaithong 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 Xaythany 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 Hadxayfong 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 Sangthong 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 Pakngum 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.9

8 District Population Projections 2015-2035

3.1.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 1.3 Projected Total Mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2035, Vientiane Capital Year Total Male Female

2015 844,020 418,890 425,130

2016 864,962 429,007 435,955

2017 885,908 439,115 446,793

2018 906,859 449,234 457,625

2019 927,723 459,317 468,406

2020 948,447 469,318 479,129

2021 968,990 479,199 489,791

2022 989,289 488,947 500,342

2023 1,009,272 498,519 510,753

2024 1,028,914 507,910 521,004

2025 1,048,170 517,090 531,080

2026 1,067,286 526,192 541,094

2027 1,086,217 535,203 551,014

2028 1,104,975 544,118 560,857

2029 1,123,532 552,934 570,598

2030 1,141,911 561,651 580,260

2031 1,160,223 570,335 589,888

2032 1,178,560 579,034 599,526

2033 1,196,814 587,689 609,125

2034 1,215,100 596,358 618,742

2035 1,233,300 604,985 628,315

District Population Projections 2015-2035 9

Naxaithong

tal Male Female Total Male Female Sisattanak To

Vientiane Capital Vientiane , ,

35 20 – Xaysetha 2015 2015

Sikhottabong year population by sex and district: and sex by population year -

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female .1 Projected total mid total Projected .1 Chanthabuly 1.3

Table Table

Year

10 District Population Projections 2015-2035

) Pakngum continued (

emale Male Total Female F

Vientiane Capital Vientiane

, , 35 20 – Sangthong 2015

Hadxayfong year population by sex and district: and sex by population year -

.1 Projected total mid total Projected .1 Xaythany Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

1.3

Table Year

District Population Projections 2015-2035 11

Male Female

Vientiane Capital , , 35 20 – 2015 2015

: Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total

year population by age - id Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Projected total m

1.4

Age Table Table

12 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Chanthabuly

2035,

– population by age: 2015 2015 age: by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Age Table 1.4.1 Projected total mid total Projected 1.4.1 Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 13

Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

Sikhottabong

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 1.4.2 1.4.2

Age Table

14 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Xaysetha

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 lation by age: by lation year popu year - Projected total mid total Projected

3 Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

1.4.

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 15

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Sisattanak

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

1.4.4 1.4.4

Age Table

16 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total

Naxaithong

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

1.4.5 1.4.5

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 17

Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Xaythany Xaythany

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 1.4.6 1.4.6

Table Age

18 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female

Hadxayfong

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total 1.4.7 1.4.7

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 19

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Sangthong

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: population by age year year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 1.4.8 1.4.8

Table Age

20 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total

akngum P

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected

9 Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 1.4.

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 21

3.2 Phongsaly Province 3.2.1 Population Projection by District

Table 2.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

District 2015 2025 2035 % change

Phongsaly 183,967 200,119 207,980 13.1 23,922 24,030 23,633 -1.2 May 27,366 29,754 29,030 6.1

Khoua 26,967 27,671 27,253 1.1 Samphanh 25,396 26,554 26,624 4.8 Boun Neua 23,037 27,184 31,732 37.7 Yot Ou 32,096 33,917 34,994 9.0 Boun Tay 25,181 31,009 34,716 37.9

The population in Phongsaly Province is projected to increase slowly. In mid-year 2015 the population in Phongsaly was 183,967 and in 2025 the population is projected to increase to 200,119 and 207,980 in 2035. This increase is approximately 13 percent compared to 2015. At district level, Boun Tay District has the fastest population growth. The population increased from 25,181 in 2015 to 31,009 in 2025 and it is projected to increase to 34,716 in 2035 or 38 percent compared to 2015. The population growth is almost the same as Boun Neua District. The population is projected to decline at a rate of 1.2 percent in Phongsaly District compared to 2015. The reason for the population decline in Phongsali District maybe because the Provincial Administration Offices and Departments were moved to Boun Neua District. Civil servants who work in these offices relocated to Boun Neua District resulting in an increase in the district population.

3.2.2 Fertility Rates by District

In 2015 the Total Fertility Rates of Phongsaly Province was still high at 3.8. Women of child bearing age (15-49) have an average of four children. The district with the highest total fertility rate was Samphanh District at 5.3 in 2015, with the total fertility rate expected to decline by 2035. The total fertility rate is set at 2.6. This means that by 2035, women of child bearing age (15-49) in Samphanh District will have an average of 2-3 children, which is the highest rate among the districts of Phongsaly. The District with the lowest fertility rate in 2015 was Boun Neua at 2.9 and Yot Ou at 3.2. It is projected that the fertility rate of these two districts will decline to 2.0 in 2035. The total fertility rate in will decline from 3.6 in 2015 to 2.1 in 2035, which is the replacement fertility rate.

22 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Table 2.2 Projected Total Fertlity Rates by District 2015-2035

District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Phongsali 3.9 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.2 May 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.5 2.2

Khoua 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.1 Samphanh 5.3 4.2 3.5 3.0 2.6 Boun Neua 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 Yot Ou 3.2 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 Boun Tay 3.8 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.1

District Population Projections 2015-2035 23

3.2.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 2.3Projected Total mid-year population by sex: 2015-2035, Phongsaly Province

Year Total Male Female

2015 183,968 93,300 90,668 2016 186,013 94,295 91,718 2017 187,946 95,229 92,717 2018 189,777 96,110 93,667 2019 191,507 96,940 94,567 2020 193,145 97,719 95,426 2021 194,706 98,458 96,248 2022 196,186 99,156 97,030 2023 197,580 99,811 97,769 2024 198,894 100,425 98,469 2025 200,119 100,992 99,127 2026 201,270 101,524 99,746 2027 202,331 102,013 100,318 2028 203,308 102,460 100,848 2029 204,194 102,864 101,330 2030 204,980 103,219 101,761 2031 205,718 103,548 102,170 2032 206,391 103,845 102,546 2033 206,995 104,104 102,891 2034 207,528 104,326 103,202 2035 207,981 104,510 103,471

24 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Boun Neua Boun

Male Female Total Male Female

Samphanh Total Total

Phongsaly Province , ,

35 20 – Khoua 2015 2015

May year population by sex and district: and sex by population year -

Phongsali Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Projected total mid total Projected

2.3.1 Table Year

District Population Projections 2015-2035 25

Table 2.3.1 Projected total mid-year population by sex: 2015-2035, Phongsaly Province (continued) Yot Ou Boun Tay Year Total Male Female Total Male Female 2015 32,096 16,517 15,579 25,181 12,668 12,513 2016 32,385 16,640 15,745 25,842 12,998 12,843 2017 32,651 16,750 15,902 26,484 13,321 13,163 2018 32,891 16,845 16,046 27,109 13,633 13,475 2019 33,105 16,926 16,178 27,721 13,941 13,780 2020 33,303 16,999 16,303 28,310 14,233 14,077 2021 33,470 17,053 16,416 28,888 14,521 14,367 2022 33,619 17,099 16,520 29,446 14,801 14,645 2023 33,744 17,128 16,616 29,987 15,070 14,917 2024 33,841 17,144 16,697 30,512 15,332 15,179 2025 33,917 17,149 16,767 31,009 15,579 15,430 2026 34,000 17,169 16,831 31,496 15,820 15,676 2027 34,085 17,202 16,883 31,954 16,042 15,912 2028 34,178 17,255 16,922 32,388 16,251 16,137 2029 34,272 17,320 16,952 32,792 16,445 16,347 2030 34,370 17,398 16,972 33,178 16,625 16,553 2031 34,479 17,494 16,985 33,539 16,790 16,749 2032 34,597 17,604 16,993 33,869 16,937 16,932 2033 34,726 17,732 16,994 34,182 17,072 17,110 2034 34,856 17,871 16,985 34,464 17,189 17,275 2035 34,994 18,024 16,969 34,716 17,289 17,428

26 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Phongsaly Province Phongsaly , , 35 20 – 2015 2015

: year population by age - id Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Projected total m

2.4

Year Table Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 27

Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total

Phongsaly District Phongsaly , , 35 20 – 2015 2015

year population by age: by population year - Projected total mid total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 2.4.1 2.4.1

Table Table Age

28 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

May

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

2.4.2 2.4.2

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 29

Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total

Khoua

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

2.4.3 2.4.3

Table Age

30 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Samphanh

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 2.4.4 2.4.4

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 31

Male Female Total Male Female Total Total

Boun Neua

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 2.4.5 2.4.5

Table Age

32 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Yot Ou

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 2.4.6 2.4.6

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 33

Male Female Total Male Female

Total Total

Boun Tay

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

2.4.7 2.4.7

Table Age

34 District Population Projections 2015-2035

3.3 Luangnamtha Province 3.3.1 Population Projection by District

Table 3.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

District 2015 2025 2035 %change

Luangnamtha 181,925 215,128 242,473 33.3 Namtha 55,769 65,512 73,092 31.1 Sing 40,952 48,351 55,156 34.7

Long 36,010 43,926 50,524 40.3

Viengphoukha 24,780 29,798 34,005 37.2

Na Le 24,413 27,541 29,696 21.6

The population of in mid-year 2015 was 181,925. It has been projected that the population of will increase to 215,128 by 2025 and to 242,473 by 2035 or increase by 33.3 percent compared to 2015. The district with the fastest population growth is Luang Namtha District. It increased from 55,769 in 2015 to 73,092 in 2035. It increased by 17,323 or 31.1 percent compared to 2015. The district with the largest growth in population was Long District. It increased 40.3 percent over 20 years, from 2015-2035. The lowest population growth was Na Le. Its population rose from 24,413 in 2015 to 29,696 in 2035, or an increase of 21.6 percent compared to 2015.

3.3.2 Fertility Rate Table 3.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by districts 2015-2035

District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Namtha 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.9 Sing 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.9 Long 4.2 3.5 2.8 2.5 2.2

Viengphoukha 3.8 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.1

Na Le 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.2 2.0

The total fertility rate of Luang Namtha in 2015 was 3.5. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) have an average of 3-4 children. The district with the highest fertility rate in 2015 was Long District, which is expected to decline to 2.8 in 2025 and 2.2 in 2035. Luang Namtha

District Population Projections 2015-2035 35

is the district with the lowest fertility rate at 3.1 in 2015. The rate is expected to decline to the replacement fertility rate by 2030 and will continue to decline to 1.9 in 2035.

3.3.3 District Population Projection Results Table 3.3 Projected total mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2035, Luangnamtha Province Year Total Male Female

2015 181,925 90,090 91,835 2016 185,459 91,854 93,606 2017 188,964 93,589 95,375 2018 192,389 95,288 97,101 2019 195,769 96,963 98,806 2020 199,090 98,603 100,487 2021 202,380 100,226 102,154 2022 205,636 101,829 103,807 2023 208,854 103,416 105,438 2024 212,011 104,968 107,043 2025 215,128 106,502 108,626 2026 218,169 107,997 110,172 2027 221,117 109,446 111,671 2028 223,981 110,857 113,124 2029 226,751 112,224 114,527 2030 229,426 113,541 115,885 2031 232,089 114,853 117,236 2032 234,730 116,156 118,574 2033 237,346 117,442 119,904 2034 239,922 118,713 121,209 2035 242,473 119,973 122,500

36 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female

Na Le

Province

Viengphoukha , Luangnamtha , 35 20 – 2015 2015

Long Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male

Sing year population by sex and district: and sex by population year -

Projected total mid total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total Namtha .3.1

3

Table Year

District Population Projections 2015-2035 37

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Province

Luangnamtha

, 35 20 – 2015

: population by age by population year - id Projected Projected total m Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 3.4 3.4

Table Age

38 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female

Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

Namtha

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female .1 3.4

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 39

Female

Sing

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

3.4.2 3.4.2

Table Age

40 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

Total Male Female

Long

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 3.4.3 3.4.3

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 41

Total Male Female Male Total

Viengphoukha

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female 3.4.4 3.4.4

Table Age

42 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Na Le

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

: year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 3.4.5 3.4.5

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 43

3.4 Odomxay Province 3.4.1 Population Projections by District

Table 4.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

District 2015 2025 2035 % change

Odomxay 318,244 370,436 410,505 29.0 Xay 81,616 94,254 104,590 28.1

La 17,660 19,700 20,673 17.1 Na Mo 40,395 47,702 53,929 33.5 Nga 32,484 38,862 43,385 33.6 Beng 38,569 44,393 48,342 25.3 Houne 76,995 90,109 100,653 30.7 Pak Beng 30,524 35,417 38,933 27.5

The population of Odomxay in mid-year 2015 was 318,244. It has been projected that the population of Odomxay Province will increase to 370,436 by 2025 and will continue to increase to 410,505 by 2035 or a 29 percent increase compared to 2015. The district with the fastest population growth is Houne District. It increased by 23,658 between 2015 and 2035. It has been projected that Xay District population will increase by 22,974 over the 20 year projection period. The population of these two districts is projected to increase by 30.7 percent and 28.1 percent respectively compared to 2015. has the lowest projected population increase. It is projected to increase from 17,660 in 2015 to 20,673 by 2035. The average increase in population is 3.013 or 17.1 percent compared to 2015.

3.4.2 Fertility Rate

Table 4.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by district 2015-2035

District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Xay 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 La 3.8 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.0 Na Mo 3.3 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.9 Nga 4.7 3.8 3.1 2.5 2.2 Beng 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.2 1.9 Houne 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.2 1.9 Pak Beng 3.9 3.3 2.8 2.3 2.0

44 District Population Projections 2015-2035

The total fertility rate of Odomxay Province was 3.5 in 2015. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) have an average of 3-4 children. The district with the highest fertility rate in 2015 was at 4.7. It is expected to decline rapidly. In 2035 the total fertility rate of the district will be 2.2. This will be the highest fertility rate among other districts in Odomxay Province. Xay District had the lowest total fertility rate in 2015 at 2.9 and is projected to decline to 2.9 and is projected to decline to 1.8 by 2035. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) in Xay District have an average of less than 2 children.

3.4.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 4.3Projected Total Mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2035, Odomxay Province

Year Total Male Female

2015 318,243 159,473 158,770 2016 323,765 162,226 161,539 2017 329,253 164,957 164,296 2018 334,702 167,672 167,030 2019 340,100 170,369 169,731 2020 345,425 173,027 172,398 2021 350,668 175,645 175,023 2022 355,810 178,216 177,594 2023 360,830 180,731 180,099 2024 365,713 183,180 182,533 2025 370,437 185,548 184,889 2026 375,028 187,849 187,179 2027 379,472 190,081 189,391 2028 383,756 192,232 191,524 2029 387,862 194,300 193,562 2030 391,788 196,282 195,506 2031 395,669 198,245 197,424 2032 399,493 200,180 199,313 2033 403,238 202,076 201,162 2034 406,911 203,936 202,975 2035 410,504 205,758 204,746

District Population Projections 2015-2035 45

Male Female

Beng

Nga Odomxay Province

, 35 20 – 2015

Na Mo Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total

year population by sex and district: and sex by population year La -

Projected total Projected mid

Xay Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total 4.3.1

Table Year

46 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Table 4.3.1 Projected Total Mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2035, Odomxay Province (continued)

Houne Pak Beng Year Tota Male Female Tota Male Female 2015 76,995 38,852 38,144 30,524 14,875 15,649 2016 78,345 39,549 38,796 31,036 15,133 15,903 2017 79,694 40,247 39,447 31,547 15,389 16,159 2018 81,044 40,941 40,103 32,057 15,645 16,412 2019 82,392 41,641 40,750 32,568 15,903 16,666 2020 83,734 42,336 41,398 33,072 16,155 16,918 2021 85,056 43,020 42,036 33,569 16,406 17,163 2022 86,366 43,697 42,669 34,045 16,647 17,398 2023 87,643 44,360 43,283 34,522 16,889 17,633 2024 88,893 45,008 43,885 34,979 17,120 17,858 2025 90,109 45,642 44,467 35,417 17,343 18,074 2026 91,299 46,262 45,037 35,837 17,557 18,280 2027 92,458 46,865 45,593 36,241 17,763 18,479 2028 93,582 47,450 46,131 36,628 17,961 18,667 2029 94,660 48,017 46,643 36,992 18,146 18,846 2030 95,703 48,567 47,135 37,338 18,323 19,015 2031 96,734 49,109 47,624 37,677 18,497 19,180 2032 97,746 49,644 48,102 38,006 18,666 19,340 2033 98,737 50,169 48,568 38,325 18,830 19,495 2034 99,710 50,682 49,027 38,631 18,988 19,643 2035 100,653 51,181 49,472 38,933 19,142 19,791

District Population Projections 2015-2035 47

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Odomxay Province Odomxay

, 35 20 – 2015

: year population by age by population year - id Projected Projected total m

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 4.4

Table Age

48 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

,Xay 2035

– 2015 2015

: Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female year population by age by population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female 4.4.1

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 49

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

La 2035, 2035,

– population by age: 2015 2015 age: by population year year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Table 4.4.2 Projected Table 4.4.2 Projected total mid Age

50 District Population Projections 2015-2035

tal Male Female Total Male Female To

Na Mo Na , , 35 20 – 2015 2015 year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

4.4.3 Projected total mid total Projected 4.4.3

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 51

Total Male Female Male Total

Nga , , 35 20 – 2015 2015

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female

4.4.4 Projected total mid total Projected 4.4.4

Table Age

52 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female

Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total

2035, Beng 2035,

– year population by age: 2015 age: 2015 by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Table 4.4.5 Projected Table 4.4.5 Projected total mid Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 53

al MalealFemale Total Male Female Tot

Houne , , 35 20 – 2015 2015

year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

4.4.6 Projected total mid total Projected 4.4.6

Table Age

54 District Population Projections 2015-2035

MaleFemale Total Male Female

Pak Beng , , 35 20 – 2015 2015 year population by age: by population year - Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total

Total Total 4.4.7 Projected total mid total Projected 4.4.7

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 55

3.5 Bokeo Province 3.5.1 Population Projections by District

Table 5.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

% change District 2015 2025 2035

Bokeo 185,912 219,505 247,965 33.4 Huoixai 72,282 83,739 93,674 29.6 Tonpheung 36,010 42,841 48,790 35.5 Meung 15,127 18,747 22,056 45.8 Pha oudom 42,572 50,638 57,132 34.2 Paktha 19,921 23,540 26,313 32.1

The population of Bokeo in mid-year 2015 was 185,912. According to the Provincial Population Projections the population of Bokeo Province will increase to 219,505 by 2025 and will continue to increase to 247,965 by 2035 or a 33.4 percent increase compared to 2015. The population of Houaixai District has been projected to increase over the 20 year period (2015-2035). It is projected to increase from 72,282 in 2015 to 83,739 in 2025. It will continue to increase to 93,674 in 2035. Even though Huay Xay District has the highest population growth rate it has the lowest projected population increase. It is a 29.6 percent increase compared to 2015. The District which has the highest population increase is . It increased by 45.8 compared to 2015.

3.5.2 Fertility Rate

Table 5.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by district 2015-2035

District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Huoixai 3.0 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 Tonpheung 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8 Meung 4.0 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 Pha oudom 4.0 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 Paktha 3.9 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0

The total fertility rate of Bokeo Province was 3.3 in 2015. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) have an average of 3 children. The district with the highest fertility rate in 2015 was Meung District and at 4.0 and Paktha District which is at 3.9. These three districts are projected to have a total fertility rate of 2.0 in 2035. The total fertility rates of Tonpheung and Houaixai District are 2.8 and 3.0 respectively in 2015. It is projected that the total fertility rates of these two districts will be at 1.8 and 1.9 respectively in 2035.

56 District Population Projections 2015-2035

3.5.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 5.3 Projected total mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2035, Bokeo Province Year Total Male Female

2015 185,912 92,926 92,986 2016 189,544 94,721 94,823 2017 193,122 96,486 96,636 2018 196,641 98,222 98,419 2019 200,089 99,924 100,165 2020 203,468 101,590 101,878 2021 206,789 103,221 103,568 2022 210,062 104,826 105,236 2023 213,268 106,393 106,875 2024 216,418 107,929 108,489 2025 219,503 109,428 110,075 2026 222,553 110,910 111,643 2027 225,552 112,370 113,182 2028 228,501 113,806 114,695 2029 231,394 115,217 116,177 2030 234,230 116,600 117,630 2031 237,045 117,972 119,073 2032 239,832 119,328 120,504 2033 242,582 120,664 121,918 2034 245,295 121,978 123,317 2035 247,964 123,272 124,692

District Population Projections 2015-2035 57

Female

Paktha

Bokeo Province Bokeo

, Pha oudom Pha 35 20 – 2015

Meung Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male

Tonpheung year population by sex and district: and sex by population year -

Projected total total mid Projected Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total Huoixai .3.1 5

Table Year

58 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Odomxay Province Odomxay

, 35 20 – 2015 population by age: by population year - id Projected Projected total m

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

.4 5

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 59

Female

Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

Huoixai

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

5.4.1 Projected total mid total Projected 5.4.1

Table Age

60 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female Total Male Female Total Total

Tonpheung

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 5.4.2 Projected total mid total Projected 5.4.2

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 61

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Meung

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

5.4.3 Projected total mid total Projected 5.4.3

Table Age

62 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

Pha oudom Pha

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female 5.4.4 Projected total mid total Projected 5.4.4

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 63

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Paktha

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

5.4.5 Projected total mid total Projected 5.4.5

Age Table

64 District Population Projections 2015-2035

3.6 Luangprabang Province 3.6.1 Population Projections by District

Table 6.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

District 2015 2025 2035 % change

Luangprabang 445,582 483,661 506,554 13.7 Luangprabang 92,028 103,988 114,692 24.6 Xieng ngeun 34,330 36,165 36,588 6.6 Nan 28,795 30,160 30,485 5.9 Park ou 26,890 28,818 29,504 9.7 Nambak 70,983 79,719 86,645 22.1 Ngoi 30,745 31,392 32,381 5.3 Pak xeng 22,790 23,497 23,659 3.8 Phonxay 33,934 36,795 37,542 10.6 Chomphet 31,126 33,055 33,768 8.5 Viengkham 29,467 30,367 30,074 2.1 Phoukhoune 24,390 27,320 28,219 15.7 Phonthong 20,106 22,383 22,998 14.4

District Population Projections 2015-2035 65

In 2015 Luangprabang Province had the 4th largest provincial population in Lao PDR after Savannaket, Vientiane Capital and . The trend in population growth for Luangprabang is relatively slow. In mid-2015 the population of Luangprabang Province was 445,582. It has been projected that by 2025 the population of Luangprabang will be at 483,661 and will continue to increase to 506,554 in 2035 or 40 percent compared to 2015. The result of district population projections show that Luangprabang and have the largest projected increase in population. It is projected that the population will increase by 22,664 and 15,662 respectively over 20 year projection from 2015-2035. In addition the growth rates of these two districts are still the highest at 25 percent and 22 percent respectively. Vieng Kham and Pakxeng Disticts are projected to have the lowest growth rate at 2 percent and 4 percent respectively compared to 2015.

3.6.2 Fertility Rate

The total fertility rate in Luangprabang in 2015 was 3.2. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) have an average of 3 children. The districts in Luangprabang with the highest fertility rate in 2015 were Phoukhoune and Phonthong at 4.6 and 4.3 respectively. This means that in 2015 the fertility rate of women of child bearing age (15-49) have an average of 4-5 children. The total fertility rate of these two districts will continue to decline to the replacement level at 2.1 in 2035. The districts with the lowest fertility rate were Luangprabang and Nan District with 2.5 and 2.9 respectively in 2015. These two districts are projected to have the lowest total fertility rate at 1.9, which is the same as Chomphet in 2035. Women of child bearing age (15-45) within these three districts will have an average of less than two children by 2035.

Table 6.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by district 2015-2035

District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Luangprabang 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 Xieng ngeun 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 Nan 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 Park ou 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 Nambak 3.5 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.0 Ngoi 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 Pak xeng 3.8 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.1 Phonxay 4.3 3.1 2.4 2.1 2.0 Chomphet 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 Viengkham 4.0 3.2 2.6 2.2 2.1 Phoukhoune 4.6 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.1 Phonthong 4.3 3.2 2.5 2.2 2.1

66 District Population Projections 2015-2035

3.6.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 6.3 Projected total mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2035, Luangprabang Province

Year Total Male Female

2015 445,581 224,758 220,823 2016 450,315 227,041 223,274 2017 454,861 229,221 225,640 2018 459,189 231,290 227,899 2019 463,290 233,249 230,041 2020 467,157 235,086 232,071 2021 470,849 236,836 234,013 2022 474,366 238,501 235,865 2023 477,670 240,067 237,603 2024 480,775 241,535 239,240 2025 483,660 242,890 240,770 2026 486,450 244,206 242,244 2027 489,118 245,470 243,648 2028 491,666 246,681 244,985 2029 494,078 247,834 246,244 2030 496,359 248,927 247,432 2031 498,584 249,997 248,587 2032 500,722 251,028 249,694 2033 502,765 252,014 250,751 2034 504,710 252,954 251,756 2035 506,555 253,852 252,703

District Population Projections 2015-2035 67

Park ou Park Male Female Total Male Female Luangprabang Province Luangprabang

, 35

20 – Nan 2015

ion by sex and district: and sex by ion Xieng ngeun year populatyear -

Projected total mid total Projected Luangprabang Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 6.3.1 6.3.1

Year Table

68 District Population Projections 2015-2035

) continued (

Phonxay ale Female Total Male Female Luangprabang Province Luangprabang

,

35 20 – Pak xeng Pak 2015

Ngoi population by sex and district: and sex by population year -

Projected total mid total Projected Nambak Total Male Female Total Male Female Total M Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 6.3.1 6.3.1

Table Year

District Population Projections 2015-2035 69

)

continued (

Phonthong ale Female Total Male Female

Luangprabang Province Luangprabang

, 35 20 – Phoukhoune 2015

Viengkham year population by sex and district: and sex by population year - mid

Projected total total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Female Total M Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Chomphet 6.3.1 6.3.1

Table Year

70 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total MaleFemale

Total Male Male Total

Luangprabang Province Luangprabang

, 35 20 – 2015 population by age: by population year - id Projected Projected total m

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 6.4

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 71

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Luangprabang

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 6.4.1

Table Year

72 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Xieng ngeun

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: ear y - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Female Male 6.4.2

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 73

Female

Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

Nan

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 6.4.3

Table Age

74 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female

Total Male Male Total

Park ou Park

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 6.4.4

Age

Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 75

Male Female TotalFemale Male Total Male Female

Nambak

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 6.4.5

Table Age

76 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female

Ngoi

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total

6.4.6

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 77

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Pak xeng

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

6.4.7

Table Age

78 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Phonxay

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 opulation by age: p year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

6.4.8

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 79

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Chomphet

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

6.4.9

Table Age

80 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total

Viengkham

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

6.4.10

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 81

Male Female Total Male Female TotalFemale Male

Phoukhoune

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 6.4.11

Table Age

82 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female

Phonthong

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Male Total 6.4.12

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 83

3.7 Huaphanh Province 3.7.1 Population Projections by District

Table 7.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

% change District 2015 2025 2035

Huaphanh 298,373 320,265 325,319 9.0 Xamneua 58,739 63,788 65,170 10.9 Xiengkhor 26,473 27,585 27,300 3.1 Huim 12,470 13,788 14,391 15.4 Viengxay 32,697 33,602 33,512 2.5 Huameuang 33,779 36,441 37,698 11.6 Xamtay 37,894 40,985 41,469 9.4 Sopbao 26,344 27,449 26,907 2.1 Add 27,770 28,922 28,986 4.4 Kuane 25,645 28,912 30,267 18.0 Sone 16,562 18,794 19,618 18.5

The population of is projected to increase slowly. The population of Houaphanh is projected to increase from 289,373 in 2015 to 320,265 in 2025 and to 325,319 in 2035, equivalent to a 9 percent increase compared to 2015. At the district level Xamneua has the highest population increase. It is projected to increase by 6,431 people over 20 years, from 2015- 2035. This is about an 11 percent increase compared to 2015. Kuane and Sone Districts have the highest population growth equivalent to 19 percent compared to 2015. Whereas the populations of Sopbao and grew by only 2.1 and 2.5 percent respectively compared to 2015.

3.7.2 Fertility Rate The total fertility rate in Huaphan Province in 2015 was 3.8. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) have an average of 4 children. The districts in Huaphan Province with the highest fertility rate in 2015 were Phoukhoune and Phonthong at 4.6 and 4.3 respectively. The districts with the highest total fertility rate were Xamtay, Kuane and Sone in 2015 at 4.0 percent. It is projected that the fertility rate will decline to 2.2 by 2035. Viengxay and Huameuang District had the lowest total fertility rate in 2015 at 3.3. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) from these two districts had an average of 3 children in 2015. By 2035, the total fertility rate of each district across the province will be at 2.0 to 2.3.

84 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Table 7.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by district 2015-2035

District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Xamneua 4.0 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.1 Xiengkhor 4.0 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.2 Huim 3.5 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.0 Viengxay 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 Huameuang 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 Xamtay 4.4 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.3 Sopbao 3.8 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.2 Add 3.6 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.1 Kuane 4.2 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.2 Sone 4.2 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.2

3.7.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 7.3 Projected total mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2045, Huaphanh Province

Year Total Male Female

2015 298,372 151,676 146,696 2016 301,097 152,977 148,120 2017 303,719 154,217 149,502 2018 306,247 155,408 150,839 2019 308,673 156,546 152,127 2020 310,976 157,614 153,362 2021 313,155 158,618 154,537 2022 315,197 159,556 155,641 2023 317,069 160,411 156,658 2024 318,766 161,181 157,585 2025 320,263 161,851 158,412 2026 321,580 162,436 159,144 2027 322,711 162,932 159,779 2028 323,645 163,332 160,313 2029 324,376 163,636 160,740 2030 324,907 163,842 161,065 2031 325,306 163,984 161,322 2032 325,554 164,052 161,502 2033 325,643 164,040 161,603 2034 325,565 163,946 161,619 2035 325,318 163,771 161,547

District Population Projections 2015-2035 85

Huameuang Province

Huaphanh

Female Total Male Female Total Male Female , Viengxay 35 20 – 2015

Huim

Xiengkhor year population by sex and district: and sex by population year -

Projected total mid total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Xamneua 7.3.1

Table Year

86 District Population Projections 2015-2035

) continued (

Sone Province

Huaphanh

Female Total Male Female Total Male Female , Kuane 35

20 – 2015

Add

Sopbao year population by sex and district: and sex by population year -

Projected total mid total Projected

Xamtay Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 7.3.1

Table

Year

District Population Projections 2015-2035 87

Female Total Male Female

Province

Huaphanh

, 35 20 – 2015

population by age: by population year - id Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female

Projected Projected total m

Total Male Male Total

7.4

Age Table

88 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Xamneua

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

7.4.1

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 89

Total Male Female Male Total

Total Male Female Female Male Total

Xiengkhor

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 7.4.2

Table Age

90 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Huim

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 7.4.3

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 91

Female

Viengxay

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total 7.4.4

Table Age

92 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female

Huameuang

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female

Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Male Total

7.4.5

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 93

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Xamtay

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

7.4.6

Table Age

94 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

TotalFemale Male

Sopbao

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

7.4.7

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 95

Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Add

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 7.4.8

Age Table

96 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female

Kuane

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

7.4.9

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 97

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Sone

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

7.4.10

Age Table

98 District Population Projections 2015-2035

3.8 Xayaboury Province 3.8.1 Population Projections by District Table 8.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

District 2015 2025 2035 % change

Xayaboury 393,040 449,050 492,203 25.2 Xayaboury 77,998 91,837 103,282 32.4 Khop 21,309 25,749 29,255 37.3 Hongsa 28,954 32,120 34,186 18.1 Ngeun 18,297 21,965 24,926 36.2 Xienghone 33,668 39,189 43,642 29.6 Phiang 59,486 69,189 76,699 28.9 Parklai 70,262 78,518 84,212 19.9 Kenethao 41,047 44,443 46,780 14.0 Botene 17,779 17,830 17,932 0.9 Thongmyxay 8,816 9,556 9,999 13.4 Xaysathan 15,425 18,654 21,289 38.0

The population of Xayaboury Province in mid-2015 was 393,040. It is projected to be 449,050 by 2025 and will continue to grow to 492,203 in 2035, equivalent to 25.2 percent compared to 2015. The district with the highest projected population increase was Xayaboury. It increases from 77,998 in 2015 to 103,282 in 2035. This represents an increase of more than 25,284 people or 32.4 percent compared to 2015. On the other hand, the district that has the lowest population is . The population is projected to increase by only 153 over 20 years between 2015 and 2035. This represents an increase of only 0.9 percent compared to 2015. The district with the highest population growth was Xaysathan and Khop with projected increases of 37.2 percent and 38 percent respectively compared to 2015. 3.8.2 Fertility Rate

The total fertility rate in Xayaburi in 2015 was around 2.9. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) have an average of 3 children. At district level, Khop and Ngeun had the highest fertility rates in 2015, at 3.6. The total fertility rate is projected to decline to 2.3 by 2035. Botene was the district with the lowest total fertility rate at 1.9 in 2015 and will continue to decline to 1.7 by 2035.

District Population Projections 2015-2035 99

Table 8.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by district 2015-2035

District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Xayaboury 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 Khop 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.3 Hongsa 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 Ngeun 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.3 Xienghone 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 Phiang 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 Parklai 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 Kenethao 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 Botene 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 Thongmyxay 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 Xaysathan 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0

3.8.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 8.3 Projected total mid-year population by sex: 2015-2045, Xayaboury Province Year Total Male Female

2015 393,038 200,114 192,924 2016 399,515 203,448 196,067 2017 405,802 206,675 199,127 2018 411,893 209,805 202,088 2019 417,791 212,835 204,956 2020 423,496 215,758 207,738 2021 429,002 218,576 210,426 2022 434,315 221,295 213,020 2023 439,422 223,911 215,511 2024 444,338 226,428 217,910 2025 449,052 228,840 220,212 2026 453,683 231,209 222,474 2027 458,229 233,543 224,686 2028 462,681 235,827 226,854 2029 467,047 238,077 228,970 2030 471,319 240,277 231,042 2031 475,558 242,464 233,094 2032 479,774 244,647 235,127 2033 483,950 246,806 237,144 2034 488,094 248,957 239,137 2035 492,205 251,094 241,111

100 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female Xienghone

Total Male Male Total

Xayaboury Province Xayaboury

, Ngeun 35 20 – 2015

Hongsa

Khop year population by sex and district: and sex by population year -

Projected total mid total Projected

Xayaboury Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

8.3.1

Table Year

District Population Projections 2015-2035 101

Table 8.3.1 Projected total mid-year population by sex and district: 2015-2035, Xayaboury Province (continued) Phiang Parklai Kenethao Year Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 2015 59,486 30,324 29,162 70,262 35,808 34,454 41,047 20,604 20,443 2016 60,586 30,887 29,699 71,231 36,279 34,952 41,454 20,798 20,656 2017 61,659 31,434 30,225 72,173 36,736 35,437 41,844 20,982 20,863 2018 62,707 31,970 30,737 73,087 37,178 35,910 42,219 21,158 21,061 2019 63,725 32,490 31,235 73,978 37,608 36,370 42,582 21,327 21,255 2020 64,715 32,995 31,720 74,834 38,018 36,815 42,930 21,491 21,438 2021 65,673 33,483 32,189 75,654 38,410 37,243 43,261 21,646 21,614 2022 66,602 33,956 32,647 76,432 38,782 37,650 43,578 21,793 21,785 2023 67,497 34,414 33,082 77,170 39,130 38,040 43,882 21,936 21,946 2024 68,357 34,854 33,503 77,864 39,457 38,407 44,169 22,071 22,098 2025 69,189 35,280 33,909 78,518 39,763 38,755 44,443 22,198 22,245 2026 70,001 35,695 34,306 79,158 40,059 39,098 44,707 22,319 22,388 2027 70,799 36,105 34,694 79,776 40,348 39,428 44,965 22,440 22,525 2028 71,580 36,506 35,074 80,371 40,623 39,748 45,215 22,556 22,659 2029 72,342 36,901 35,441 80,948 40,890 40,058 45,463 22,671 22,792 2030 73,090 37,287 35,803 81,506 41,150 40,357 45,701 22,784 22,917 2031 73,829 37,672 36,157 82,059 41,402 40,657 45,930 22,891 23,039 2032 74,562 38,053 36,509 82,605 41,656 40,949 46,154 22,997 23,157 2033 75,281 38,429 36,852 83,147 41,905 41,242 46,373 23,101 23,272 2034 75,994 38,803 37,191 83,683 42,153 41,529 46,576 23,200 23,375 2035 76,699 39,175 37,524 84,212 42,400 41,813 46,780 23,298 23,482

102 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Table8.3.1 Projected total mid-year population by sex and district: 2015-2035, Xayaboury Province (continued)

Botene Thongmyxay Xaysathan Year Total Male Female Total Total Male Female Total 2015 17,779 8,833 8,946 8,816 4,301 4,515 15,425 7,456 7,969 2016 17,780 8,835 8,946 8,908 4,350 4,559 15,765 7,629 8,136 2017 17,782 8,835 8,948 8,997 4,395 4,601 16,104 7,801 8,302 2018 17,789 8,838 8,952 9,080 4,438 4,642 16,440 7,974 8,466 2019 17,794 8,839 8,954 9,160 4,480 4,680 16,772 8,144 8,628 2020 17,801 8,840 8,961 9,242 4,521 4,721 17,106 8,316 8,790 2021 17,806 8,839 8,967 9,313 4,557 4,755 17,429 8,483 8,946 2022 17,813 8,839 8,975 9,377 4,590 4,786 17,748 8,647 9,101 2023 17,821 8,840 8,981 9,440 4,620 4,820 18,058 8,808 9,250 2024 17,826 8,841 8,985 9,500 4,648 4,852 18,365 8,966 9,399 2025 17,830 8,838 8,992 9,556 4,678 4,877 18,654 9,116 9,537 2026 17,835 8,836 8,998 9,612 4,705 4,906 18,947 9,271 9,677 2027 17,845 8,837 9,008 9,658 4,727 4,931 19,228 9,420 9,808 2028 17,853 8,839 9,015 9,709 4,752 4,957 19,508 9,566 9,942 2029 17,865 8,840 9,025 9,757 4,776 4,981 19,781 9,711 10,070 2030 17,877 8,841 9,036 9,803 4,798 5,006 20,045 9,853 10,192 2031 17,888 8,843 9,045 9,844 4,818 5,026 20,306 9,995 10,311 2032 17,899 8,845 9,054 9,887 4,838 5,049 20,559 10,129 10,430 2033 17,911 8,847 9,064 9,924 4,853 5,071 20,809 10,265 10,544 2034 17,923 8,847 9,076 9,965 4,876 5,089 21,054 10,400 10,653 2035 17,932 8,848 9,084 9,999 4,889 5,110 21,289 10,529 10,760

District Population Projections 2015-2035 103

Total Male Female Male Total

Total Male Female Female Male Total

Xayaboury Province Xayaboury

, 35 20 – 2015

population by age: by population year - id Projected Projected total m

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 8.4

Table Age

104 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Xayaboury

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 8.4.1

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 105

Male Female

Xayaboury

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total 8.4.2

Table Age

106 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female Total Male Female

Hongsa

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total

Projected total m total Projected

Total 8.4.3

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 107

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Ngeun

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

8.4.4

Table Age

108 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total

Xienghone

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

8.4.5

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 109

Male Female Total Male Female TotalFemale Male Phiang

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 8.4.6

Table Age

110 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female

Parklai

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total 8.4.7

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 111

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Kenethao

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

8.4.8

Table Age

112 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

Botene

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

8.4.9

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 113

Female Total Male Female

Total Male Male Total

Thongmyxay

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

8.4.10

Age Table

114 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Xaysathan

, 35 Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 20 –

2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female

8.4.11

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 115

3.9 Xiengkhuang Province 3.9.1 Population Projections by District Table 9.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

% change District 2015 2025 2035

Xiengkhuang 252,521 278,337 289,128 14.5 Pek 77,677 87,638 94,666 21.9 Kham 48,847 52,722 54,141 10.8 Nonghed 39,029 42,324 42,688 9.4 Khoune 34,402 38,114 39,189 13.9 Morkmay 15,017 17,177 17,665 17.6 Phoukoud 25,641 26,976 27,056 5.5 Phaxay 11,909 13,386 13,723 15.2

The population of Xieng Khouang Province is projected to increase relatively slowly. In 2015 Xieng Khouang had a population of 252,521. It is projected to increase to 278,337 in 2025 and 289,128 in 2035, or 14.5 percent compared to 2015. Pek has the highest projected population increase at 17,000 people over 20 years, equivalent to 22 percent compared to 2015. Whereas, the population of Phoukoud and is projected to grow more slowely with increases of 1,415 and 1,815 respectively.

3.9.2 Fertility Rate Table 9.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by district 2015-2035

District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Pek 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 Kham 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.2 2.0 Nonghed 4.2 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.1 Khoune 4.2 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.1 Morkmay 4.5 3.6 3.0 2.5 2.3 Phoukoud 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 Phaxay 4.0 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.1

The total fertility rate of Xiengkhuang Province in 2015 was around 3.6. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) have an average of 3 to 4 children. Morkmay had the highest total fertility rate in 2015 at 4.5. It is expected to decline rapidly to 2.3 by 2035. Pek and Phoukoud had the lowest fertility rates in 2015, at 3.0 and it is likely to decline. It is projected that the total fertility rate of these two districts will be 2.0 by 2035.

116 District Population Projections 2015-2035

3.9.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 9.3 Projected total mid-year population by sex and district: 2015 – 2035, Xiengkhuang Province

Year Total Male Female

2015 252,518 127,866 124,652 2016 255,689 129,358 126,331 2017 258,749 130,787 127,962 2018 261,686 132,156 129,530 2019 264,500 133,460 131,040 2020 267,179 134,687 132,492 2021 269,726 135,849 133,877 2022 272,127 136,940 135,187 2023 274,368 137,953 136,415 2024 276,441 138,883 137,558 2025 278,337 139,724 138,613 2026 280,080 140,491 139,589 2027 281,652 141,177 140,475 2028 283,050 141,777 141,273 2029 284,266 142,291 141,975 2030 285,296 142,712 142,584 2031 286,250 143,095 143,155 2032 287,113 143,430 143,683 2033 287,885 143,721 144,164 2034 288,557 143,959 144,598 2035 289,128 144,151 144,977

District Population Projections 2015-2035 117

Morkmay

Xiengkhuang Province Xiengkhuang

, emale Total Male Female Total Male Female 35 Khoune 20 – 2015

Nonghed

year population by sex and district: and sex by population year - Kham Projected total mid total Projected

Pek Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male F Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 9.3.1

Table Year

118 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Table 9.3.1 Projected total mid-year population by sex and district: 2015 – 2035, Xiengkhuang Province(continued) Phoukoud Phaxay Year Total Male Female Total Male Female 2015 25,641 13,002 12,639 11,909 5,995 5,914 2016 25,819 13,077 12,742 12,104 6,091 6,013 2017 25,992 13,149 12,843 12,291 6,181 6,110 2018 26,154 13,215 12,939 12,470 6,268 6,202 2019 26,303 13,276 13,028 12,635 6,349 6,285 2020 26,446 13,331 13,115 12,790 6,423 6,367 2021 26,576 13,381 13,195 12,934 6,491 6,443 2022 26,694 13,428 13,266 13,065 6,553 6,512 2023 26,805 13,469 13,336 13,186 6,611 6,575 2024 26,896 13,501 13,394 13,293 6,658 6,634 2025 26,976 13,529 13,448 13,386 6,702 6,684 2026 27,045 13,550 13,495 13,465 6,740 6,725 2027 27,091 13,557 13,534 13,536 6,772 6,764 2028 27,131 13,566 13,566 13,594 6,800 6,795 2029 27,153 13,565 13,588 13,641 6,821 6,820 2030 27,160 13,558 13,602 13,671 6,833 6,838 2031 27,159 13,546 13,613 13,697 6,842 6,855 2032 27,147 13,529 13,619 13,713 6,849 6,864 2033 27,127 13,506 13,621 13,728 6,856 6,872 2034 27,098 13,481 13,618 13,732 6,855 6,876 2035 27,056 13,447 13,609 13,723 6,848 6,875

District Population Projections 2015-2035 119

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Pek

, 35 20 – 2015

population by age: by population year - id Projected Projected total m

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

9.4

Table Age

120 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

Kham

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 9.4.1

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 121

Female Total Male Female

Total Male Male Total

Nonghed

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

9.4.2

Table Age

122 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Nonghed

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 9.4.3

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 123

Male Female

Khoune

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total

9.4.4

Age Table

124 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Morkmay

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 9.4.5

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 125

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Phoukoud

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

9.4.6

Age Table

126 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female Total Male Female

Total Total

Phaxay

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

9.4.7

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 127

3.10 Vientiane Province 3.10.1 Population Projections by District

Table 10.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

% change District 2015 2025 2035

Vientiane Province 431,966 490,787 546,997 26.6 Phonhong 66,641 74,959 83,663 25.5 Thoulakhom 54,911 60,864 67,205 22.4 Keo oudom 18,144 19,826 21,445 18.2 Kasy 38,076 44,588 50,944 33.8 Vangvieng 57,425 65,093 72,444 26.2 Feuang 42,593 49,597 56,416 32.5 Xanakharm 41,229 45,746 50,182 21.7 Mad 21,652 24,559 27,468 26.9 Viengkham 18,906 21,051 23,279 23.1 Hinherb 29,975 34,290 37,557 25.3 Meun 42,414 50,214 56,394 33.0

The population of Vientiane Province in mid-2015 was 431,966. The population is projected to increase to 490,787 in 2025 and to 546,997 in 2035 or increase by 26.6 percent compared to 2015. Phonhong District is projected to have the highest population increase at 17,000 people over 20 years from 2015-2035 or 26 percent compared to 2015. The districts with the highest population growth were Kasy and Meun which are expected to grow by 34 percent and 33 percent respectively compared to 2015. The lowest population growth is Keo oudom which is projected to grow by 18 percent compared to 2015. This is equivalent to an increase of 3,301 over the 20 year projection period. 3.10.2 Fertility Rate

The total fertility rate of Vientiane Province in 2015 was 2.6. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) in Vientiane Province in 2015 had an average of 2-3 children. Meun District had the highest total fertility rate in 2015 at 3.7. The total fertility rate of this district is projected to decline rapily to 2.2 by 2035. Kasy had a total fertility rate of 3.3 in 2015 and it is projected to decline to 2.1 by 2035. The districts with the lowest total fertility rates were Thoulakhom and Viengkham. In 2015 the total fertility rates of these districts were at 2.0. It has been projected the total fertility rate of these two districts will decline slowely at 1.9 by 2035. This is the same rate as Keo oudom, Xanakharm and Mad.

128 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Table 10.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by district 2015-2035 District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Phonhong 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 Thoulakhom 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 Keo oudom 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 Kasy 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 Vangvieng 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 Feuang 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 Xanakharm 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 Mad 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 Viengkham 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 Hinherb 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 Meun 3.7 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.2

3.10.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 10.3 Projected total mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2035, Vientiane Province Year Total Male Female

2015 431,966 217,069 214,897 2016 438,263 220,099 218,164 2017 444,433 223,062 221,371 2018 450,475 225,964 224,511 2019 456,379 228,802 227,577 2020 462,142 231,563 230,579 2021 467,898 234,318 233,580 2022 473,643 237,068 236,575 2023 479,375 239,818 239,557 2024 485,089 242,558 242,531 2025 490,784 245,291 245,493 2026 496,467 248,021 248,446 2027 502,133 250,747 251,386 2028 507,789 253,477 254,312 2029 513,418 256,196 257,222 2030 519,028 258,914 260,114 2031 524,645 261,639 263,006 2032 530,262 264,361 265,901 2033 535,852 267,070 268,782 2034 541,435 269,773 271,662 2035 546,995 272,473 274,522

District Population Projections 2015-2035 129

Vangvieng

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Vientiane Province Vientiane

, Kasy 35 20 – 2015

Keo oudom Keo

year population by sex and district: and by sex population year Thoulakhom -

Projected total Projected mid

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Phonhong 10.3.1

Table Year

130 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Table 10.3.1 Projected total mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2035, Vientiane Province (continued)

Feuang Xanakharm Mad Year Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 2015 42,593 21,355 21,238 41,229 20,466 20,763 21,652 10,890 10,762 2016 43,351 21,720 21,631 41,686 20,677 21,008 21,936 11,025 10,912 2017 44,091 22,074 22,016 42,145 20,891 21,254 22,219 11,158 11,061 2018 44,810 22,422 22,389 42,600 21,103 21,497 22,506 11,293 11,212 2019 45,513 22,760 22,753 43,056 21,314 21,741 22,796 11,432 11,364 2020 46,196 23,088 23,108 43,502 21,521 21,981 23,085 11,568 11,517 2021 46,878 23,414 23,464 43,958 21,733 22,226 23,376 11,708 11,668 2022 47,560 23,740 23,819 44,405 21,939 22,466 23,667 11,846 11,821 2023 48,243 24,067 24,176 44,853 22,148 22,705 23,962 11,986 11,976 2024 48,922 24,394 24,528 45,298 22,354 22,944 24,258 12,127 12,132 2025 49,597 24,720 24,877 45,746 22,562 23,184 24,559 12,271 12,288 2026 50,276 25,048 25,228 46,190 22,767 23,423 24,852 12,410 12,442 2027 50,955 25,376 25,580 46,633 22,974 23,659 25,147 12,550 12,597 2028 51,640 25,704 25,936 47,078 23,181 23,896 25,441 12,691 12,750 2029 52,319 26,035 26,284 47,520 23,385 24,134 25,731 12,830 12,901 2030 53,003 26,365 26,637 47,965 23,594 24,371 26,022 12,969 13,053 2031 53,687 26,699 26,987 48,406 23,800 24,606 26,307 13,106 13,201 2032 54,374 27,033 27,341 48,853 24,009 24,844 26,596 13,244 13,352 2033 55,057 27,366 27,691 49,294 24,216 25,078 26,891 13,384 13,507 2034 55,737 27,697 28,040 49,739 24,424 25,315 27,179 13,522 13,657 2035 56,416 28,027 28,389 50,182 24,631 25,551 27,468 13,660 13,808

District Population Projections 2015-2035 131

Table 10.3.1 Projected total mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2035, Vientiane Province (continued) Viengkham Hinherb Meun Year Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 2015 18,906 9,469 9,437 29,975 15,236 14,739 42,414 21,199 21,215 2016 19,117 9,567 9,550 30,473 15,478 14,995 43,336 21,660 21,677 2017 19,323 9,663 9,660 30,951 15,709 15,242 44,224 22,097 22,127 2018 19,533 9,762 9,771 31,415 15,933 15,482 45,073 22,520 22,554 2019 19,747 9,861 9,886 31,860 16,146 15,714 45,883 22,922 22,960 2020 19,959 9,960 10,000 32,288 16,350 15,938 46,652 23,304 23,349 2021 20,171 10,059 10,112 32,713 16,552 16,161 47,400 23,673 23,727 2022 20,391 10,160 10,230 33,126 16,747 16,379 48,133 24,037 24,096 2023 20,607 10,263 10,345 33,526 16,935 16,591 48,853 24,393 24,460 2024 20,829 10,366 10,463 33,914 17,119 16,796 49,543 24,735 24,807 2025 21,051 10,471 10,580 34,290 17,294 16,996 50,214 25,068 25,146 2026 21,272 10,574 10,698 34,664 17,469 17,195 50,877 25,399 25,479 2027 21,494 10,679 10,815 35,025 17,635 17,390 51,523 25,719 25,804 2028 21,713 10,784 10,929 35,372 17,797 17,576 52,163 26,040 26,123 2029 21,940 10,889 11,051 35,711 17,947 17,764 52,788 26,352 26,436 2030 22,159 10,995 11,165 36,035 18,098 17,937 53,394 26,655 26,739 2031 22,381 11,101 11,280 36,358 18,243 18,115 54,006 26,962 27,044 2032 22,605 11,210 11,396 36,672 18,384 18,288 54,612 27,265 27,347 2033 22,831 11,316 11,515 36,976 18,520 18,457 55,212 27,567 27,645 2034 23,056 11,422 11,634 37,270 18,647 18,623 55,806 27,865 27,941 2035 23,279 11,529 11,750 37,557 18,774 18,783 56,394 28,161 28,233

132 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total

Vientiane Province Vientiane

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

10.4

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 133

Male Female Total MaleFemale Total Male Female

Phonhong

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

10.4.1 Projected total mid total Projected 10.4.1

Age Table

134 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

Thoulakhom

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female

10.4.2 Projected total mid total Projected 10.4.2

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 135

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Keo oudom Keo

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 10.4.3 Projected total mid total Projected 10.4.3

Table Age

136 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

TotalFemale Male

Kasy

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

10.4.4 Projected total mid total Projected 10.4.4

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 137

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Vangvieng

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 10.4.5 Projected total mid total Projected 10.4.5

Table Age

138 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female

Feuang

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total 10.4.6 Projected total mid total Projected 10.4.6

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 139

Female Total Male Female

Xanakharm

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

year population by age: by population year - Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male

Total Male Male Total 10.4.7 Projected total mid total Projected 10.4.7

Age Table

140 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Mad

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 10.4.8 Projected total mid total Projected 10.4.8

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 141

Total Male Female Male Total TotalFemale Male

Viengkham

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 10.4.9 Projected total mid total Projected 10.4.9

Table Age

142 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Hinherb

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 year population by age: population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 10.4.10 Projected total mid total Projected 10.4.10

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 143

Total Male Female Male Total

Meun

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

year population by age: population year - Total Male Female

10.4.11 Projected total mid total Projected 10.4.11

Age Table

144 District Population Projections 2015-2035

3.11 Borikhamxay Province 3.11.1 Population Projections by District

Table 11.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

% change District 2015 2025 2035

Borikhamxay 285,640 340,595 386,890 35.4 Pakxane 46,396 55,100 63,031 35.9 Thaphabath 26,601 30,556 34,035 27.9 Pakkading 52,178 62,879 71,655 37.3 Bolikhanh 51,867 63,415 73,702 42.1 Khamkeuth 65,410 76,211 85,136 30.2 Viengthong 31,310 38,451 44,084 40.8 Xaychamphone 11,878 13,983 15,246 28.4

The population of Bolikhamxay is projected to grow significantly. It is projected the population will increase from 285,640 in 2015 to 340,595 in 2025 and to 386,890 in 2035. This represents a 35 percent increase compared to 2015. At the district level Bolikhanh has the highest projected population increase. The district population will increase from 51,867 in 2015 to 73,702 in 2035, or an increase of 21,835 over 20 years, from 2015-2035. The district with the smallest population increase was Xaychamphone District, which increased by only 3,368. The districts that are projected to have the highest increases in population are Bolikhanh and Viengthong. Their populations are projected to increase by 42 percent and 41 percent over the 20-year period compared to 2015. In contrast Thaphabath has a 28 percent increase compared to 2015.

3.11.2 Fertility Rate

Table 11.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by district 2015-2035

District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Pakxane 3.0 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8 Thaphabath 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 Pakkading 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 Bolikhanh 3.6 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.0 Khamkeuth 3.4 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.9 Viengthong 4.0 3.2 2.7 2.3 2.1 Xaychamphone 4.0 3.2 2.7 2.3 2.1

The total fertility rate in Bolikhamxay Province in 2015 was 3.4. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) have an average of 3-4 children. Viengthong and Xaychamphone had the highest total fertility rates in 2015 at 4.0. Their fertility rates are projected to decline to 2.1 by

District Population Projections 2015-2035 145

2035. Thaphabath had the lowest fertility rate in 2015. By 2035, the districts with the lowest fertility rates include Pakxane, Thaphabath and Pakkading, which are projected to be 1.8.

3.11.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 11.3 Projected total mid-year population by sex and district: 2015 – 2035, Borikhamxay Province (continued)

Year Total Male Female

2015 285,641 143,060 142,581 2016 291,869 146,117 145,752 2017 297,927 149,120 148,807 2018 303,794 152,070 151,724 2019 309,476 154,963 154,513 2020 314,956 157,790 157,166 2021 320,334 160,571 159,763 2022 325,605 163,308 162,297 2023 330,737 165,990 164,747 2024 335,740 168,618 167,122 2025 340,596 171,178 169,418 2026 345,424 173,690 171,734 2027 350,217 176,156 174,061 2028 354,966 178,562 176,404 2029 359,651 180,913 178,738 2030 364,283 183,198 181,085 2031 368,882 185,462 183,420 2032 373,459 187,707 185,752 2033 377,988 189,917 188,071 2034 382,463 192,098 190,365 2035 386,893 194,245 192,648

146 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female

Total Male Male Total

Khamkeuth , Borikhamxay Province Borikhamxay ,

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

Bolikhanh Pakkading year population by sex and district: and sex by population year - Thaphabath Projected total mid total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Pakxane

11.3.1

Table Year

District Population Projections 2015-2035 147

Table 11.3.1 Projected total mid-year population by sexand district: 2015 – 2035, Borikhamxay Province(continued)

Viengthong Xaychamphone Year Total Male Female Total Male Female 2015 31,310 15,845 15,465 11,878 6,135 5,743 2016 32,116 16,246 15,869 12,138 6,267 5,871 2017 32,898 16,641 16,257 12,391 6,398 5,993 2018 33,663 17,030 16,633 12,631 6,523 6,108 2019 34,409 17,412 16,997 12,854 6,642 6,212 2020 35,122 17,784 17,339 13,066 6,757 6,309 2021 35,828 18,151 17,677 13,269 6,866 6,404 2022 36,516 18,510 18,006 13,463 6,971 6,491 2023 37,182 18,860 18,322 13,648 7,072 6,575 2024 37,830 19,201 18,629 13,821 7,168 6,653 2025 38,451 19,530 18,922 13,983 7,259 6,724 2026 39,063 19,849 19,213 14,137 7,344 6,793 2027 39,667 20,160 19,507 14,288 7,428 6,860 2028 40,258 20,462 19,796 14,431 7,503 6,927 2029 40,835 20,754 20,081 14,563 7,574 6,989 2030 41,389 21,029 20,360 14,690 7,642 7,049 2031 41,945 21,304 20,641 14,812 7,705 7,107 2032 42,495 21,573 20,921 14,930 7,766 7,164 2033 43,035 21,839 21,196 15,043 7,825 7,218 2034 43,566 22,098 21,467 15,145 7,878 7,267 2035 44,084 22,353 21,731 15,246 7,931 7,315

148 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

Total Male Female

Borikhamxay Province Borikhamxay

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 11.4

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 149

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Pakxane

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

11.4.1

Age Table

150 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female

Thaphabath

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Female Male Total 11.4.2

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 151

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Pakkading

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

11.4.3

Table Age

152 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female

al Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male al

Bolikhanh

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Tot Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 11.4.4

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 153

Male Female Total Male Female Total Total

Khamkeuth

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

11.4.5

Age Table

154 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Viengthong

, 35 Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female 11.4.6

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 155

Male FemaleMale Total Male Female

Xaychamphone

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Projected total m total Projected

Total Total

11.4.7

able Age T

156 District Population Projections 2015-2035

3.12 Khammuane Province 3.12.1 Population Projections by District

Table 12.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

% change District 2015 2025 2035

Khammuane

400,492 462,374 510,695 27.5 91,330 103,586 115,083 26.0 Mahaxay 37,597 44,097 49,529 31.7 Nongbok 48,325 53,100 56,869 17.7 Hinboon 51,411 57,977 62,240 21.1 Nhommalath 33,813 40,067 44,987 33.0 Bualapha 33,403 40,047 45,100 35.0 Nakai 26,018 31,430 35,211 35.3 Xebangfay 29,104 33,508 36,679 26.0 Xaybuathong 26,941 31,812 35,400 31.4 Khounkham 22,550 26,750 29,598 31.3

The population of Khammouane is projected to increase from 400,492 in 2015 to 462,374 in 2025 and to 510,695 in 2035, equivalent to a 27.5 percent increase compared to 2015. At the district level the population of Thakhek is projected to increase by 23,754 over 20 years, from 2015-2035, or an increase of about 26 percent compared to 2015. Bualapha and Nakai are expected to increase by 35 percent compared to 2015. Nongbok is projected to increase by only 18 percent compared to 2015.

3.12.2 Fertility Rate The total fertility rate in in 2015 was 3.2. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) had an average of 3 children in 2015. The districts with the highest total fertility rates were Nakai and Bualapha at 4.3. It is projected that the fertility rate will decline to 2.2 by 2035. Thakek and Nongbok had the lowest fertility rates in 2015 at 2.3 and 2.5 respectively. The fertility rates will continue to fall to 1.8 by 2035. In 2035 districts in Khammouane Province are projected to have fertility rates between 1.8 to 2.2.

District Population Projections 2015-2035 157

Table 12.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by district 2015-2035

District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Thakhek 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 Mahaxay 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 Nongbok 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 Hinboon 3.2 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.9 Nhommalath 3.7 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 Bualapha 4.3 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.2 Nakai 4.3 3.3 2.7 2.4 2.2 Xebangfay 3.6 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.0 Xaybuathong 4.0 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.1 Khounkham 3.7 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.0

3.12.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 12.3 Projected total mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2035, Khammuane Province Year Total Male Female

2015 400,492 200,137 200,355 2016 407,494 203,792 203,702 2017 414,318 207,345 206,973 2018 420,950 210,798 210,152 2019 427,375 214,147 213,228 2020 433,570 217,372 216,198 2021 439,634 220,483 219,151 2022 445,575 223,489 222,086 2023 451,345 226,365 224,980 2024 456,961 229,117 227,844 2025 462,374 231,727 230,647 2026 467,704 234,278 233,426 2027 472,929 236,762 236,167 2028 478,022 239,169 238,853 2029 482,987 241,496 241,491 2030 487,808 243,739 244,069 2031 492,561 245,947 246,614 2032 497,227 248,115 249,112 2033 501,811 250,233 251,578 2034 506,297 252,303 253,994 2035 510,697 254,328 256,369

158 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Nhommalath Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Khammuane Province Khammuane

, 35 Hinboon 20 – 2015

Nongbok population by sex and district: and by sex population year - Mahaxay

Projected total Projected mid

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Thakhek 12.3.1

Table Year

District Population Projections 2015-2035 159

)

continued ( Khounkham Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Khammuane Province Khammuane

, Xaybuathong 35 20 – 2015

Xebangfay population by sex and district: and by sex population

year - Nakai

Projected total Projected mid

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Bualapha

12.3.1

Table Year

160 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

Total Male Female

Khammuane Province Khammuane

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

12.4

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 161

Female Total MaleFemale Total Male Female

Thakhek

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

12.4.1

Table Age

162 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female

Mahaxay

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total

12.4.2

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 163

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Nongbok

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

12.4.3

Age Table

164 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

Hinboon

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

12.4.4

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 165

Male FemaleMale Total Male Female Total Total

Nhommalath

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

12.4.5

Table Age

166 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Bualapha

, 35 Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female

12.4.6

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 167

Total Male Female Male Total

Nakai

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female

12.4.7

Age Table

168 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Xebangfay

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

12.4.8 Projected total mid total Projected 12.4.8 e

Age Tabl

District Population Projections 2015-2035 169

Total Male Female Male Total

TotalFemale Male

Xaybuathong

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

year population by age: by population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

12.4.9 Projected total mid total Projected 12.4.9

Age Table

170 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female Total MaleFemale Total Male Female Khounkham

,

35 20 – 2015 2015 year population by age: population year - Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

12.4.10 Projected total mid total Projected 12.4.10

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 171

3.13 3.13.1 Population Projections by District Table 13.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

% change District 2015 2025 2035

Savannakhet 987,906 1,148,031 1,294,367 31.0 KaysonePhomvihane 126,411 147,551 168,671 33.4 Outhoomphone 92,097 107,531 120,804 31.2 Atsaphangthong 46,670 53,799 60,457 29.5 Phine 67,475 81,346 94,693 40.3 Sepone 58,721 70,506 81,523 38.8 Nong 31,032 36,899 41,344 33.2 Thapangthong 41,738 51,463 60,119 44.0 Songkhone 101,500 114,465 125,742 23.9 Champhone 110,389 123,437 135,342 22.6 Xonbuly 61,330 70,757 80,641 31.5 Xaybuly 60,841 70,477 78,976 29.8 Vilabuly 40,385 48,516 55,259 36.8 Atsaphone 60,418 68,777 77,155 27.7 Xayphoothong 47,876 53,332 57,547 20.2 Phalanxay 41,021 49,174 56,093 36.7

The population of Savannakhet Province is projected to increase from 987,906 in 2015 to 1,148,031 in 2025 and to 1,294,365 in 2035, equivalent to a 31 percent increase compared to 2015. At the district level KaysonePhomvihane is projected to have the largest increase. KaysonePhomvihane is projected to increase by 42,261 people over 20 years from 2015 to 2035. The district with the lowest increase was Xayphoothong at 9,671. Thapangthong and Phine are projected to have the highest population growth at 44% and 40% respectively. Whereas the population of Xayphoothong and Champhone have the lowest projected population increase at only 20% and 23% respectively.

172 District Population Projections 2015-2035

3.13.2 Fertility Rate Table 13.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by district 2015-2035

District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

KaysonePhomvihane 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 Outhoomphone 2.8 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 Atsaphangthong 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 Phine 3.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 Sepone 4.4 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.2 Nong 4.5 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.2 Thapangthong 4.0 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.1 Songkhone 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 Champhone 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 Xonbuly 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 Xaybuly 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 Vilabuly 3.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 Atsaphone 2.9 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 Xayphoothong 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 Phalanxay 3.5 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9

Savannakhet had a relatively low fertility rate in 2015. The total fertility rate of Savannakhet Province was around 2.7. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) had an average of two to three children. At district level Sepon and Nong have the highest total fertility rates. From the projection these two districts will reach the replacement level slower than other districts from 2035 onwards, whereas KaysonePhomvihane, Xayphoothong had the lowest total fertility rate of 1.9 in 2015 and this will continue to decline to 1.8 by 2035. All the districts in Savannakhet except the four districts mentioned above and Champhone will reach their replacement level between 2020 and 2030.

District Population Projections 2015-2035 173

3.13.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 13.3 Projected total mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2035, Savannakhet Province Year Total Male Female

2015 987,907 493,473 494,434 2016 1,004,522 502,202 502,320 2017 1,021,092 510,811 510,281 2018 1,037,553 519,295 518,258 2019 1,053,883 527,630 526,253 2020 1,070,035 535,768 534,267 2021 1,086,027 543,821 542,206 2022 1,101,866 551,782 550,084 2023 1,117,490 559,620 557,870 2024 1,132,895 567,331 565,564 2025 1,148,031 574,882 573,149 2026 1,163,122 582,385 580,737 2027 1,178,122 589,823 588,299 2028 1,193,033 597,187 595,846 2029 1,207,821 604,471 603,350 2030 1,222,498 611,666 610,832 2031 1,237,081 618,834 618,247 2032 1,251,596 625,973 625,623 2033 1,265,991 633,038 632,953 2034 1,280,242 640,055 640,187 2035 1,294,365 647,008 647,357

174 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female

Sepone

Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

Phine Savannakhet Province Savannakhet

, 35 20 –

2015

Atsaphangthong

Outhoomphone year population by sex and district: and by sex population year -

Projected total Projected mid

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female KaysonePhomvihane

13.3.1

Table Year

District Population Projections 2015-2035 175

Female

)

continued (

Xonbuly Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

Savannakhet Province Savannakhet

, Champhone 35 20 – 2015

Songkhone

year population by sex and district: and by sex population year - Thapangthong

Projected total Projected mid

Nong Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

13.3.1

Table Year

176 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

) continued (

Phalanxay TotalFemale Male

Savannakhet Province Savannakhet

, Xayphoothong 35 20 – 2015

Atsaphone

Vilabuly year population by sex and district: and by sex population year -

Projected total Projected mid

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Xaybuly

13.3.1

Table Year

District Population Projections 2015-2035 177

Female

Savannakhet Province Savannakhet

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

Female Total Male Female TotalFemale Male Total Male population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

13.4

Age Table

178 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female Total Male Female

KaysonePhomvihane

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 on by by age: on populati year - id Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total

Projected total m total Projected

Total Total

13.4.1

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 179

Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

Outhoomphone

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

13.4.2

Age

Table

180 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female Total Male Female

Total Total

Atsaphangthong

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

13.4.3

Age

Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 181

Phine

, 35 Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 20

– 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female

13.4.4

Age Table

182 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

Sepone

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female

13.4.5

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 183

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Nong

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

13.4.6

Age

Table

184 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

Thapangthong

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

13.4.7

Age

Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 185

Male Female Total Male Female

Total Total

Songkhone

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

13.4.8

Age Table

186 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Champhone

,

35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

13.4.9

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 187

Total Male Female Male Total

Xonbuly

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: population Total Male Female Total Male Female TotalFemale Male

year - id Projected total Projected m

Total Male Female

13.4.10

Age

Table

188 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Xaybuly

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: population year - id Projected total Projected m

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 13.4.11

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 189

Male Female

Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total

Vilabuly

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: population year - id Projected total Projected m

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

13.4.12

Age

Table

190 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Atsaphone

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: population year - id Projected total Projected m

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 13.4.13

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 191

Xayphoothong

, 35 20 Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total –

2015 2015

population by age: population year - id Projected total Projected m

Total Male Female Total Male Female

13.4.14

Age

Table

192 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Phalanxay

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: population year - id Projected total Projected m

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

13.4.15

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 193

3.14 Saravane Province 3.14.1 Population Projections by District Table 14.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

% change District 2015 2025 2035

Saravane province 403,719 479,646 553,859 37.2 Saravane 102,197 120,824 138,950 36.0 Ta oi 32,452 42,403 52,244 61.0 Toomlarn 29,744 35,975 42,810 43.9 Lakhonepheng 48,323 57,212 64,916 34.3 Vapy 37,948 43,847 49,255 29.8 Khongxedone 63,520 70,908 77,196 21.5 Lao ngarm 72,738 87,373 102,541 41.0 Samuoi 16,797 21,104 25,946 54.5

The population of Saravan is projected to increase from 403,719 in 2015 to 479,646 in 2025 and to 553,859 in 2035. The projected increase is 150,140 or approximately 37.2 percent compared to the population in 2015. At district level the population of Saravan is projected to increase by 36,753 over 20 years. The population of Samuoi is projected to increase by only about 9,149 people. Samoi has a small population but has the second highest percentage growth after Ta oi. The populations of Samuoi and Ta oi are predicted to grow by 61 percent and 54.5 percent respectively over 20 years. Khongxedone district is projected to grow by only 21.5 percent.

3.14.2 Fertility Rate Table 14.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by district 2015-2035

District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Saravane 3.26 2.80 2.50 2.30 2.20 Ta oi 6.07 4.50 3.60 3.00 2.70 Toomlarn 3.89 3.20 2.75 2.50 2.30 Lakhonepheng 3.19 2.80 2.50 2.30 2.20 Vapy 3.19 2.80 2.50 2.30 2.20 Khongxedone 2.86 2.45 2.20 2.10 2.00 Lao ngarm 3.56 3.00 2.65 2.45 2.30 Samuoi 5.56 4.30 3.50 3.00 2.70

194 District Population Projections 2015-2035

The total fertility rate in Saravan in 2015 was 3.5. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) have an average of 3-4 children. The total fertility rate is declining rapidly. Khongxedone had the lowest fertility rate in 2015. The district will reach the replacement rate in 2030. Ta oi and Samuoi are projected to have the highest total fertility rate in 2015. These two districts are also projected to have the highest total fertility rate in 2035 at 2.7.

3.14.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 14.3 Projected total mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2035, Saravane province

Year Total Male Female

2015 403,719 202,479 201,240 2016 411,498 206,590 204,908 2017 419,267 210,697 208,570 2018 426,991 214,794 212,197 2019 434,651 218,865 215,786 2020 442,228 222,895 219,333 2021 449,796 226,941 222,855 2022 457,337 231,002 226,335 2023 464,837 235,062 229,775 2024 472,283 239,128 233,155 2025 479,645 243,182 236,463 2026 487,016 247,223 239,793 2027 494,403 251,246 243,157 2028 501,802 255,246 246,556 2029 509,172 259,214 249,958 2030 516,527 263,142 253,385 2031 523,939 267,119 256,820 2032 531,387 271,139 260,248 2033 538,866 275,181 263,685 2034 546,362 279,254 267,108 2035 553,859 283,350 270,509

District Population Projections 2015-2035 195

rovince Lakhonepheng ale Female Total Male Female Saravane P Saravane

, 35 20 –

2015

Toomlarn

Ta oi Ta year population by sex and district: and by sex population year -

Projected total Projected mid

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total M Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Saravane 14.3.1

Year Table

196 District Population Projections 2015-2035

) continued (

rovince Samuoi le Female Total Male Female Saravane P Saravane

, 35 20 –

2015

Lao ngarm Lao

Khongxedone year population by sex and district: and by sex population year - total mid

Projected Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Ma Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Vapy 14.3.1

Year Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 197

Female Total Male Female

Total Male Male Total

rovince P Saravane Saravane

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

14.4

Age Table

198 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Saravane

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 14.4.1

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 199

Total Male Female Male Total

Ta oi Ta

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female 14.4.2

Age Table

200 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Toomlarn

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 14.4.3

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 201

Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

Lakhonepheng

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

14.4.4

Age Table

202 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female Total MaleFemale Total Total

Vapy

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

14.4.5

Age

Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 203

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Khongxedone

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

14.4.6

Age Table

204 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

Lao ngarm Lao

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female 14.4.7

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 205

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Samuoi

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

14.4.8

Age Table

206 District Population Projections 2015-2035

3.15 Province 3.15.1 Population Projections by District Table 15.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

% change District 2015 2025 2035

Sekong 117,356 141,663 165,317 40.9 Lamarm 35,878 42,854 49,623 38.3 Kaleum 17,736 22,668 27,165 53.2 Dakcheung 24,064 28,907 33,526 39.3 Thateng 39,677 47,234 55,003 38.6

The population of is less than Xaysomboun Province. The population is projected to increase from 117,356 in 2015 to 141,663 in 2025 and will rise to 165,317 in 2035, equivalent to an increase of 40.9 percent compared to 2015. The district with the largest increase is Thateng which is projected to grow by 15,326 in the period 2015-2035, equivalent to an increase of 38.6 percent compared to 2015. is projected to grow by the highest percentage. It is projected to grow from 17,736 in 2015 to 27,165 in 2035, or an increase of about 53.2 percent compared to 2015.

3.15.2 Fertility Rate

Table 15.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by district 2015-2035

District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Lamarm 3.4 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.0 Kaleum 6.6 5.2 4.2 3.5 2.9 Dakcheung 5.8 4.5 3.7 3.1 2.5 Thateng 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.0

District Population Projections 2015-2035 207

The total fertility rate in Sekong Province was 4.2. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) have an average of 4 children. Kaleum district has the highest total fertility rate of 6.6 in 2015. Kalun districts fertility rate is projected to decline sharply to 2.9 by 2035. Thateng has the lowest projected fertility rate at 3.3 in 2015. It will continue to decline to 2.0 by 2035. This is equal to the total fertility rate for Kaleum.

3.15.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 15.3 Projected total mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2035, Sekong Province

Year Total Male Female

2015 117,353 59,025 58,328 2016 119,746 60,318 59,428 2017 122,154 61,624 60,530 2018 124,570 62,943 61,627 2019 126,988 64,271 62,717 2020 129,398 65,603 63,795 2021 131,829 66,948 64,881 2022 134,280 68,311 65,969 2023 136,737 69,682 67,055 2024 139,202 71,063 68,139 2025 141,664 72,450 69,214 2026 144,113 73,837 70,276 2027 146,527 75,217 71,310 2028 148,904 76,588 72,316 2029 151,237 77,946 73,291 2030 153,514 79,285 74,229 2031 155,832 80,614 75,218 2032 158,176 81,924 76,252 2033 160,538 83,209 77,329 2034 162,921 84,469 78,452 2035 165,316 85,700 79,616

208 District Population Projections 2015-2035

ale Total Male Female Thateng Sekong Province Sekong

, 35 20 –

2015 2015

Dakcheung ex ex district: and

Kaleum year population by s by population year -

Projected total mid total Projected

Lamarm Fem Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 15.3.1

Table Year

District Population Projections 2015-2035 209

Female

Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

Sekong Province Sekong

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 15.4

Table Age

210 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female Total Male Female

Total Total

Lamarm

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

15.4.1

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 211

Kaleum

, 35 Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female 15.4.2

Age Table

212 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

Dakcheung

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female 15.4.3

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 213

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Thateng

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 15.4.4

Age Table

214 District Population Projections 2015-2035

3.16 Champasack Province 3.16.1 Population Projections by District

Table 16.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

% change District 2015 2025 2035

Champasack 703,856 799,919 886,910 26.0 77,592 84,345 89,977 16.0 Sanasomboon 68,924 74,636 79,010 14.6 Bachiangchaleunsoo 58,475 68,746 78,551 34.3 Paksxong 83,596 102,225 120,386 44.0 Pathoomphone 63,140 72,810 81,601 29.2 Phonthong 95,768 104,734 112,097 17.1 Champasack 63,326 70,560 76,665 21.1 Sukhuma 58,535 68,645 78,105 33.4 Moonlapamok 39,682 47,397 55,137 38.9 Khong 94,821 105,820 115,380 21.7

The population of Champasack is one of Lao PDR's most populous provinces. In 2015, the population of Champasack was 703,856. The population is projected to increase to 799,919 by 2025 and 886,910 in 2035, equivalent to about 26 percent more than 2015. The population is projected to increase by 20,386 people by 2035, or an increase of about 44 percent compared to 2015. Each District in Champasack is projected to grow by more than 10,000 people over the course of 20 years from 2015-2035. Pakse and Moonlapamok District are projectd to increase by the highest percentage. They will grow by 44% and 38.9% respectively, while the other districts are expected to grow by 14.6% over 20 years compared to 2015. 3.16.2 Fertility Rate The total fertility rate in Champasak Province in 2015 was 2.6. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) have an average of 2-3 children. The district with the higest total fertility rate was Pakchai, which is projected to decline to 2.1 percent by 2035. This projection is on the same scale as Sukhuma and Moonlapamok. The district with the lowest total fertility rate is Pakse, which in 2015 was 1.8 and will continue to decline to 1.5 by 2035.

District Population Projections 2015-2035 215

Table 16.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by district 2015-2035

District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Pakse 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 Sanasomboon 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 Bachiangchaleunsoo 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 Paksxong 3.5 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.1 Pathoomphone 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 Phonthong 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 Champasack 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 Sukhuma 3.3 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 Moonlapamok 3.3 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 Khong 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9

3.16.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 16.3 Projected total mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2035, Champasack Province Year Total Male Female

2015 703,859 348,791 355,068 2016 713,872 353,668 360,204 2017 723,782 358,456 365,326 2018 733,582 363,149 370,433 2019 743,219 367,735 375,484 2020 752,688 372,178 380,510 2021 762,173 376,595 385,578 2022 771,679 380,979 390,700 2023 781,158 385,306 395,852 2024 790,574 389,570 401,004 2025 799,918 393,746 406,172 2026 809,201 397,879 411,322 2027 818,379 401,970 416,409 2028 827,410 405,990 421,420 2029 836,332 409,951 426,381 2030 845,085 413,829 431,256 2031 853,739 417,644 436,095 2032 862,260 421,384 440,876 2033 870,632 425,031 445,601 2034 878,845 428,590 450,255 2035 886,910 432,068 454,842

216 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female

Pathoomphone

Champasack Province Champasack

, Paksxong 35 20 –

2015 2015

Bachiangchaleunsoo Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total Female year population by sex and district: and sex by population year - Sanasomboon Projected total mid total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total Pakse

16.3.1

Table Year

District Population Projections 2015-2035 217

)

continued (

Khong

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Champasack Province Champasack

, Moonlapamok 35 20 – 2015 2015

Sukhuma

population by sex and district: and by sex population year - Champasack

Projected total mid total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Phonthong

16.3.1

Table Year

218 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

Total Male Female

Champasack Province Champasack

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

16.4

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 219

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Pakse

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

16.4.1

Table Age

220 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female

Sanasomboon

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total

16.4.2

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 221

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Bachiangchaleunsoo

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 16.4.3

Table Age

222 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

Total Male Female

Paksxong

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

16.4.4

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 223

Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Pathoomphone

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 16.4.5

Table Age

224 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female

Phonthong

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

Male Female Total Male Female Total MaleFemale Total population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total 16.4.6

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 225

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Champasack

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 16.4.7

Table Age

226 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female

Total Male Female Total Male Male Total Female Male Total

Sukhuma

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

16.4.8

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 227

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Moonlapamok

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

16.4.9

Age Table

228 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

Total MaleFemale

Khong

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by age: population year - id Projected total Projected m

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 16.4.10

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 229

3.17 Province

3.17.1 Population Projections by District

Table 17.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

% change District 2015 2025 2035

Attapeu 143,950 174,901 202,507 40.7 Xaysetha 34,235 40,610 46,783 36.7 Samakkhixay 37,208 44,648 51,316 37.9 Sanamxay * 35,007 42,926 49,732 42.1 Sanxay 22,795 28,475 33,238 45.8 Phouvong

14,706 18,242 21,438 45.8 * The population projections are based on the Population and Housing Census 2015. They do not include the impact from the disaster in .

The population of is projected to increase from 143,950 in 2015 to 174,901 in 2025 and to 202,507 by 2035. This is equivalent to an increase of about 40.7 percent compared to 2015. If Sanamxay District did not suffer from the dam disaster in 2018 it would have the highest population in Attapeu. This incident in 2018 changed the demographics and the accuracy of the data used in the projection. This is also the case for the provincial data. Sanxay and have a large proportion of the population, with an estimated 46% increase compared to 2015. Whereas the populations of Xaysetha and Samakkhixay Districts have the lowest population growth of 37% respectively.

3.17.2 Fertility Rate

Table 17.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by district 2015-2035

District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Attapeu 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 Xaysetha 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.1 Samakkhixay 4.5 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.5 Sanamxay 5.5 4.3 3.5 3.0 2.7 Sanxay 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.5 2.3

230 District Population Projections 2015-2035

The total fertility rate in Attapeu in 2015 was 4.0. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) have an average of 4 children. The district with the highest total fertility rate in 2015 was Sanxay, at 5.5. It is projected to decline sharply to a total fertility rate of 2.7 in 2035. Xaysettha District had the lowest fertility rate in 2015 at 2.9. This will continue to decline to a level of 2.1 in 2035.

3.17.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 17.3 Projected total mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2035 Attapeu Province

Year Total Male Female

2015 143,947 72,107 71,840 2016 147,220 73,857 73,363 2017 150,457 75,603 74,854 2018 153,656 77,349 76,307 2019 156,803 79,090 77,713 2020 159,885 80,818 79,067 2021 162,955 82,540 80,415 2022 166,002 84,255 81,747 2023 169,013 85,953 83,060 2024 171,981 87,634 84,347 2025 174,902 89,291 85,611 2026 177,792 90,930 86,862 2027 180,639 92,549 88,090 2028 183,443 94,142 89,301 2029 186,181 95,703 90,478 2030 188,865 97,232 91,633 2031 191,568 98,762 92,806 2032 194,290 100,292 93,998 2033 197,020 101,817 95,203 2034 199,758 103,338 96,420 2035 202,505 104,851 97,654

District Population Projections 2015-2035 231

Phouvong

Attapeu Province Attapeu

, 35 Sanxay 20 – 2015 2015

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

Sanamxay Sanamxay

year population by sex and district: and sex by population year - Samakkhixay

Projected total mid total Projected

Xaysetha Total Male Female Total Male Female 17.3.1

Table Year

232 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female Total Male Female

Attapeu Province Attapeu

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 age: population by year year - id Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total

Projected total m total Projected

Total Total 17.4

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 233

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Xaysetha

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

17.4.1

Table Age

234 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female

Total Male Male Total

Samakkhixay

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 17.4.2

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 235

Male Female Total Male Female Total Female Male

Sanamxay Sanamxay

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total 17.4.3 17.4.3

Table Age

236 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

Sanxay

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female 17.4.4

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 237

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Phouvong

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

17.4.5

Table Age

238 District Population Projections 2015-2035

3.18 Xaysomboun Province 3.18.1 Population Projections by District

Table 18.1 Results of District Population Projections comparing years 2015, 2025 and 2035

% change District 2015 2025 2035

Xaysomboon 93,214 122,664 152,175 63.3 Anouvong 25,879 33,715 41,992 62.3 Thathom 20,922 28,280 35,722 70.7 Longcheng 9,566 13,823 17,868 86.8 Home 11,819 15,142 18,291 54.8 Longsane 25,028 31,704 38,302 53.0

The population of Xaysomboun Province is projected to grow from 93,214 in 2015 to 122,664 in 2025 and increase to 152,175 in 2035. This is equivalent to a 63.3 percent increase compared to 2015. Anouvong has the highest projected population increase at 16,113 over 20 years, from 2015- 2035 or increase 62.3 percent compared to 2015. The district with the highest population growth rate is Longcheng with an increase of 86.8 percent over 20 years.

3.18.2 Fertility Rate

Table 18.2 Projected Total Fertility Rates by District 2015-2035

District 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Anouvong 4.2 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 Thathom 3.4 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 Longcheng 4.6 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.6 Home 6.4 4.8 4.0 3.5 3.1 Longsane 4.6 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.6

District Population Projections 2015-2035 239

Xaysomboun Province has one of the highest fertility rates in Lao PDR. It had a total fertility rate of 4.4% in 2015. This means that women of child bearing age (15-49) had an average of 4-5 children. The district of Home had the highest total fertility rate in 2015 at 6.4, which is projected to fall to 3.1 by 2035. Thathom had a total fertility rate of 3.4 in 2015, which will continue to decline to a replacement fertility rate of 2.1 by 2035. In 2035, only Thathom achieved a replacement fertility rate with others having lower fertility rates of 2.5 to 3.1.

3.18.3 Results of District Population Projections

Table 18.3 Projected total mid-year population by sex: 2015 – 2035, Xaysomboun Province

Year Total Male Female

2015 93,215 47,226 45,989 2016 96,149 48,881 47,268 2017 99,094 50,550 48,544 2018 102,041 52,228 49,813 2019 104,988 53,916 51,072 2020 107,926 55,607 52,319 2021 110,872 57,308 53,564 2022 113,821 59,016 54,805 2023 116,773 60,729 56,044 2024 119,721 62,446 57,275 2025 122,666 64,165 58,501 2026 125,603 65,883 59,720 2027 128,524 67,596 60,928 2028 131,433 69,304 62,129 2029 134,320 71,005 63,315 2030 137,182 72,696 64,486 2031 140,097 74,416 65,681 2032 143,056 76,163 66,893 2033 146,056 77,933 68,123 2034 149,094 79,726 69,368 2035 152,174 81,544 70,630

240 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Male Female

Longsane

Xaysomboun Province

, Home 35 20 – 2015 2015

Longcheng Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total

year population by sex and district: and sex by population year Thathom -

Projected total mid total Projected

Anouvong Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total

18.3.1

Year Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 241

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Xaysomboun Province Xaysomboun

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by age: year year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

18.4

Age Table

242 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Female Total Male Female

Total Male Male Total

Anouvong

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

18.4.1

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 243

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Thathom

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Total Female Male Total Female Male Total

18.4.2

Age Table

244 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total

Longcheng

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female

18.4.3

Table Age

District Population Projections 2015-2035 245

Total Male Female Total Male Female Male Total Female Male Total

Home

, 35 20 – 2015 2015

population by by age: population year - id total m total Projected Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 18.4.4

Age Table

246 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Total Male Female Male Total Total Male Female

Longsane

, 35 20 – 2015 2015 population by by age: population year - id Projected total m total Projected

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

18.4.5

Age Table

District Population Projections 2015-2035 247

Chapter 4. Summary and Conclusion

The results of population projections at the district level have been carefully compiled and analysed by the technical staff of the Lao Statistic Bureau. There were also several consultation meetings regarding the results of the population projections with the provincial, district and local statistics technical staff. This was to build common understanding of the methodology, components, content and data in the population projections to ensure it is in line with the local context.

The results of the district population projections show that the population change is different in each region. Overall it can be observed that the districts that have potential for economic development have the highest population growth. The potential for economic development will attract migrants seeking employment. However, the districts that don’t have potential for economic development, but have high total fertility rate will also experience population growth. The districts with the highest growth were mainly in Vientiane Capital and the central and southern provinces where there is more economic potential compared to the northern provinces. The results of the district-level population projections also indicate that the age structure of the population is changing. This is very important information for development planners at each level who seek to maximize development opportunities:

- The population aged 0-14 is projected to decline due to socio-economic changes that give both urban and rural populations access to family planning. Women also have greater access to education and employment opportunities. As a result women may get married later in life. Having children later and fewer children based on their economic status is part of the cause of the decline of the population aged 0-14. Therefore, planners must recognize the importance of the young population by focusing efforts to improve their health and education in order for them to grow into a quality human resource. - The proportion of the work force aged 15-64 years is projected to increase. This factor represents an opportunity to drive national economic growth. Having a skilled workforce is crucial to sustain national economic growth. It requires training of the labour force to improve both quality and quantity to meet the needs of the labor market in each period. It is necessary to plan for a growing labour force each year. - The proportion of people aged 65 and over is increasing as a result of improved access to quality health services. The growing old age population is a problem in many countries, particularly in developed countries where governments must allocate funds to social welfare for the elderly and provide housing and senior care. Even though the old age population in Lao PDR is low, it is projected to increase. The government and local authorities must plan for the future particularly for social protection, social welfare and access to improved basic health services for the elderly. - The district population projections use the best methodologies available. However, we cannot ensure one hundred percent accuracy. The birth assumptions have been adjusted to

bring the district projections in line with the provincial birth rate. The death rate uses the same assumptions as the provincial population projections. The information available in the Population and Housing Census 2015 is not sufficient to calculate the life expectancy at district level. Migration projections are based on information on migration over the past ten years from 2005-2015. This district population projection was conducted based on the national and provincial population projection principles. The results have been adjusted to be consistent with the provincial level. Therefore, the results of the district population projections are adequate for purpose and it is up to the user to maximise their benefit. - The results of the district population projections are reliable because of the statistical principles applied. It can be used in development planning, however no one can guarantee one hundred percent accuracy due to actual demographic changes as a result of social factors, the enviconment and natural disasters that cannot be predicted. For example, the dam disaster in Sanamxay District left many people dead and missing and many survivors required resettlement. This incident had an impact on the population and the accuracy of the population projection.

As we know there is a high demand for information on population in policy and planning. Therefore, when there is sufficient information available to improve population projections such as the national Population and Housing Census Data, Administrative Reporting System data and representative surveys, it is necessary for the Lao Statistics Bureau to improve the population projections to provide timely updated information to users.

District Population Projections 2015-2035 249

District Population Projection 2015-2035 First Printing English Version Author: Register Statistics Division, Social Statistics Department, Lao Statistics Bureau Paper Size: A4 Number of Pages: 118 Registration Number: 140/19062018 Purpose: Distribution

250 District Population Projections 2015-2035

Lao Statistics Bureau Ministry of Planning and Investment Tel Fax Website

District Population Projections 2015-2035 251