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Us Foreign Policy and the Crises in Libya and Syria: a Neoclassical Realist Explanation of American Intervention

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Us Foreign Policy and the Crises in Libya and Syria: a Neoclassical Realist Explanation of American Intervention US FOREIGN POLICY AND THE CRISES IN LIBYA AND SYRIA: A NEOCLASSICAL REALIST EXPLANATION OF AMERICAN INTERVENTION by Cem Boke A thesis submitted to the University of Birmingham for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Political Science and International Studies Department School of Government and Society College of Social Sciences University of Birmingham 6 October 2016 University of Birmingham Research Archive e-theses repository This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder. Table of Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................................................. iii Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................. v List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................... vi List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................ viii Chapter 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2 Neoclassical Realism Framework and Methodology ........................................................... 16 2.1 Neo-Classical Realism (NCR) ................................................................................................. 16 2.2 Methodology and Research Design ...................................................................................... 29 Chapter 3 US Historical Relationship with Libyan and Syrian Regimes ................................................ 34 3.1 US Historical Relationship with the Libyan Regime .............................................................. 34 3.1.1 Evacuation of US Bases and Increasing Soviet Influence in Libya ................................. 35 3.1.2 Nationalisation of US Oil Assets and Companies in Libya ............................................. 36 3.1.3 Qaddafi Support to anti-Colonial, separatist and Terrorist Groups .............................. 37 3.1.4 Berlin Disco Attack and US Air Strikes in Libya ............................................................. 38 3.1.5 Pan Am Flight 103 Explosion ......................................................................................... 39 3.1.6 Qaddafi`s Weapon of Mass Destruction ....................................................................... 40 3.1.7 Improving Relations ...................................................................................................... 42 3.2 US Historical Relationship with the Syrian Regime ............................................................... 44 3.2.1 The Arab-Israeli conflict and Soviet Influence in Middle East ...................................... 44 3.2.2 Stability in Lebanon ....................................................................................................... 46 3.2.3 Iran-Syria Alliance ......................................................................................................... 48 Chapter 4 Threats to US Interests vis-à-vis Libya and Syria Conflicts ................................................... 55 4.1 Threats to American Security ................................................................................................ 61 4.1.1 Libya .............................................................................................................................. 61 4.1.2 Syria ............................................................................................................................... 78 Chapter 5 Intervening Variables ......................................................................................................... 126 5.1 Elite Ideology/Obama Doctrine .......................................................................................... 126 5.2 US Economic Constraints .................................................................................................... 145 5.3 Libya/Syrian Opposition and the US Elite Perception ......................................................... 154 5.4 The Impact of the Public Opinion on US Interventions in Libya and Syria ......................... 204 Chapter 6 Comparative Analysis of Libya and Syria Cases .................................................................. 240 Chapter 7 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 265 i Appendices .......................................................................................................................................... 279 Appendix 1 Interview Questions ..................................................................................................... 279 Appendix 2 Revised Interview Questions ....................................................................................... 281 Appendix 3 Interviewee List ............................................................................................................ 282 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................ 283 ii Abstract Third-party intervention in civil wars is a phenomenon that presents a complex research puzzle in the fields of both International Relations (IR) and Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA). While intervention decisions impact the duration and result of a given conflict, they also have broader regional implications and political consequences for those that intervene. Considering the significant role of the United States (US) in international politics and its political, economic, and military clout, the dynamics behind US interventions constitute a significant research area. The central questions this thesis aims to address are `what are the dynamics behind US foreign policy choices vis-à-vis Libya and Syria’s internationalised intra- state conflicts?` and, more specifically, `What were the components that underpinned the selection of different set of elements from the intervention spectrum at different times and scales during the Libya and Syria conflicts`. To address these questions, small-N case study was used as the overarching methodology. The Libya and Syria conflicts provide valuable test cases to analyse the drivers behind the selective application of intervention in time, form, and scale by the US. The existing literature points towards the relevance of both systemic and domestic level factors. Neo-classical realism (NCR) is employed as the theoretical framework, and incorporates independent (threats to US interests vis-à-vis the Libya and Syria conflicts) and intervening variables (elite Ideology/Obama Doctrine, US economic constraints, US elite perception of the opposition in Libya and Syria, congressional dynamics and public opinion) at the system and unit levels respectively. The dependent variable - US foreign policy choices – varies across three main forms: non-intervention, non-military intervention, and military intervention. iii NCR has proven to be a comprehensive theoretical framework to understand the rationale behind the US`s suboptimal foreign policy choices. The results of the research conducted here reinforce the notion that it is problematic to explain foreign policy decisions exclusively from the perspective of a balancing against power or threats without considering the impact of intervening variables at the domestic level. The research also underpins the importance of political leaders and elites’ perceptions (regarding opposition groups as well as of domestic political restraints) through which systemic incentives and constraints are filtered and the contours of interests and threats are identified. iv Acknowledgements First and foremost I would like to thank to my supervisors Professor Stefan Wolff and Professor Mark Webber, who provided invaluable, constant support and guidance throughout the research. Without their patience, encouragement and backing it would be impossible to overcome the obstacles and complete this PhD. I am indebted to them for helping me realise my dream. Secondly the sacrifices my family has made during the last four years is beyond appreciation and expression. Without their understanding and unconditional support it would not have been possible to finish this journey. In the most difficult times their presence and reassurance was the main source of inspiration through which I sought sanctuary. Thirdly, my parents, who did their best to provide the finest educational opportunities and encouraged me to push the limits for a better future. They played an important role in my decision to pursue a PhD. I am also immensely grateful to all those who contributed to the development of the research through interviews and exchange of ideas. I would like to finally thank to Maximilian Lempriere for the professional copy-editing
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