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The Posture Triangle a New Framework for U.S CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Purchase this document TERRORISM AND Browse Reports & Bookstore HOMELAND SECURITY Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Corporation View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Research Report The Posture Triangle A New Framework for U.S. Air Force Global Presence Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Alan J. Vick C O R P O R A T I O N Research Report The Posture Triangle A New Framework for U.S. Air Force Global Presence Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Alan J. Vick RAND Project AIR FORCE Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-8167-4 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND—make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute.html R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2013 RAND Corporation This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see the RAND permissions page (www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html). RAND OFFICES SANTA MONICA, CA • WASHINGTON, DC PITTSBURGH, PA • NEW ORLEANS, LA • JACKSON, MS • BOSTON, MA DOHA, QA • CAMBRIDGE, UK • BRUSSELS, BE www.rand.org Preface Over the past several decades, the U.S. global defense posture has gone through two major realignments. The first, following the end of the Cold War, substantially reduced the number of overseas bases and returned thousands of troops to bases in the United States. The second, following the events of 9/11, expanded some overseas bases, created many new ones, and deployed close to 200,000 U.S. military personnel at the 2008 peak. Now with the war in Iraq over and operations in Afghanistan winding down, the United States is entering another global posture realignment. The combination of war fatigue among the American population, fiscal constraints, and congressional concerns that U.S. overseas infrastructure may be excessive all are producing pressures to shrink the U.S. presence abroad. On the other hand, there are limits to how much the United States can draw down if it wishes to remain a global power. Although the number of U.S. facilities and U.S. troop levels in Southwest Asia is slated to drop substantially over the next few years, the demands of ongoing counterterrorism operations in Southwest Asia and Africa as well as continuing tensions with Iran suggest an enduring, if smaller, U.S. presence in the region. At the same time, the growing U.S. focus on the Asia-Pacific region is creating new demands for a greater U.S. military presence. Finally, looking beyond these specific regional developments, there are several U.S. national security requirements that can be met only through sustained access to foreign soil. To address these and related policy issues, RAND Project AIR FORCE conducted a multiyear assessment of the historical, regional, and global aspects of U.S. force posture. Analytic and policy findings of fiscal year 2011 study results are documented in • Lynn E. Davis et al., U.S. Overseas Military Presence: What Are the Strategic Choices? (MG-1211-AF), 2012 • Stacie L. Pettyjohn, U.S. Global Defense Posture, 1783–2011 (MG-1244-AF), 2012 • Alan J. Vick and Jacob L. Heim, Assessing U.S. Air Force Basing Options in East Asia, (MG-1204-AF), January 2013, not available to the general public • Jeff Hagen, Patrick Mills, and Stephen M. Worman, Analysis of Air Operations from Basing in Northern Australia (TR-1306-AF), March 2013, not available to the general public. Building on these earlier studies, RAND Project AIR FORCE conducted a fiscal year 2012 study under the sponsorship of the Vice Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force. This study sought to answer four fundamental force posture questions raised by the U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff: 1. Why does the USAF need a global posture? 2. Where does the USAF need basing and access? 3. What types of security partnerships minimize peacetime access risk? 4. How much forward presence does the USAF require? iii This report presents a summary treatment of all four policy questions. Additional details on supporting scenario and force structure analysis can be found in Jeff Hagen and Jacob L. Heim, U.S. Air Force Global Posture: Using Scenario Analysis to Identify Future Basing and Force Requirements (RR-405-AF), forthcoming. The research described in this report was conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2012 study “Whither the Main Operating Base? Toward a New Framework for Global Posture.” RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf iv Contents Preface ........................................................................................................................................... iii Figures .......................................................................................................................................... vii Tables ............................................................................................................................................. ix Summary ......................................................................................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ xxi Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................ xxiii 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Background ......................................................................................................................................... 1 The Policy Problem ............................................................................................................................. 2 Purpose of This Document .................................................................................................................. 3 Organization ........................................................................................................................................ 3 2. Why Does the USAF Need a Global Posture? ............................................................................ 5 The Reach and Limits of U.S. Territory ............................................................................................. 5 The Posture Triangle ........................................................................................................................
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