ROUSSEFF VS. TEMER: THE BATTLE FOR MERCOSUR
By Raphael Mariani and Desirée Mota, Research Associates at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs
In a speech before the United Nations on April 22, Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff spoke against her suspension from office, which took place in the Senate last month.1 She stated that the procedure used against her was illegally carried out by the opposition. Consequently, Rousseff has appealed to Mercosur, the South American regional integration bloc, to suspend Brazil’s position in the trade organization if her ousting is finalized. As of now, she has not followed through on this appeal, but if she does, the consequences could potentially be catastrophic for acting President Michel Temer's government, Rousseff’s possible reinstatement, and the regional integration process. Rousseff’s appeal to Mercosur to suspend Brazil can be interpreted as a rash political maneuver to pressure the international community to position itself against her, and also to regain the support from Brazilian businesspeople, who have been strongly in favor of Michel Temer taking power. With her ousting, businesspeople are now anticipating a flip in Brazil’s economic trend towards more neoliberal policies. Temer, who markets himself as a “smart” economist who will do whatever it takes to get the country moving again, will see his plans suffer immensely if Brazil is removed from Mercosur. He already has announced his “Bridge to the Future” austerity plan, which aims to sharpen public spending cuts in order to boost Brazil’s competitiveness in interest to private investment. Whether or not financial markets may be overestimated when it comes to Temer’s scope to push austerity measures, the interim president quickly understood the importance of support from businesspeople. Dilma Rousseff has taken too long to understand that she needs their support to lobby against her impeachment, and appealing to the Mercosur bloc to suspend Brazil is a means to regain support from the business class.2 Moreover, leaving Mercosur could deliver a major
1 Castro, Grasielle. "Se Tiver Golpe, Dima Vai Pedir Suspensão Do Brasil No Mercosul." Brasil Post. N.p., 22 Apr. 2016. Web. 10 Jan. 2016.
Rousseff vs. Temer: The Battle for Mercosur blow to the administration of her successor. According to a recent poll from Datafolha, 58 percent of Brazilians want him impeached along with Rousseff and believe they are both responsible for the current Brazilian economic conditions.3 Suspending Brazil would jeopardize Michel Temer’s attempts to regain the trust of the Brazilian people and to maintain the support from businesspeople, his biggest ally. Leaving Mercosur could be disastrous for Rousseff as well. Rated the most disappointing leader in the world by Fortune magazine,4 a generally right-leaning publication, the former president experienced historically low favorability ratings of less than ten percent, with a majority of the country rating her presidency as “bad or terrible". According to a recent poll, 45 percent of the population believes that, assuming Rousseff returns, Brazil will be worse off when compared to the current acting President Temer while 30 percent think it will be the same.5 If her approval rating is already at
3 "O Que as últimas Pesquisas Revelam Sobre Apoio Ao Impeachment E a Temer?" BBC Brasil. N.p., 11 May 2016. Web. June 08, 2016. http://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil/2016/05/160511_temer_rejeicao_lab
A maioria da população quer que a Dilma e Temer saiam do Governo, diz Datafolha. Gazeta do Povo. April 4, 2016. Accessed June 08, 2016. http://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/vida-publica/maioria-da-populacao-quer-que-dilma-e-temer-saiam- do-governo-diz-datafolha-cq927m3huje989ar1arfbk8t0
Vox populi: Maioria quer impeachment, mas não acha que o processo não resolverá a crise. Agencia Brasil. April 14, 2016. Accessed June 08, 2016
Brazilian Public Opinion Perception - Acting President Michel Temer. Ideia Inteligência. Wilson Center 2016.
4 Fortune Editors. Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff Named Most Disappointing Leader. Fortune Magazine. April 7, 2016. Accessed June 10, 2016 http://fortune.com/2016/04/07/brazilian-president- dilma-rousseff-named-most-disappointing-leader-by-fortune-readers/ 5 Brazilian Public Opinion Perception - Acting President Michel Temer. Ideia Inteligência. Wilson Center 2016. June 10, 2016 · [email protected] · http://www.coha.org 2
Rousseff vs. Temer: The Battle for Mercosur eight percent, it is not leaving Mercosur that will reinstate her credibility as a politician in the eyes of the people. Brazil’s departure could also be catastrophic for the organization itself. Brazil is by far the most influential country in Mercosur, geographically, socially, and economically. It has in the past provided a significant portion of its gross domestic product (GDP) to the bloc, and a sudden suspension of Brazil from the organization could weaken severely the economic influence and outreach for both the bloc and the country itself. Negotiations with blocs such as the European Union could be significantly hindered as well, jeopardizing Mercosur’s international reputation. Understanding the catastrophic consequences a suspension could bring to his administration, acting President Michel Temer has been actively taking measures to impede Brazil from being suspended from Mercosur. First, Argentina’s newly formed center-right government, which particularly has close ties to Michel Temer, has condemned Rousseff’s move.6 In addition, Temer’s new administration also counts on the help of both Uruguayan and Paraguayan governments.7 8 Uruguayan Chancellor Rodolfo Nin Novoa has declared that Mercosur will not apply the democratic clause to Brazil for the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff.9 In this way, Temer’s strategy has been to isolate Venezuela, the only member that strongly supports Dilma Rousseff, without explicitly breaking diplomatic relations with the government of Nicolas Maduro.10
6http://oglobo.globo.com/brasil/punicao-para-brasil-sugerida-por-dilma-seria-rejeitada-pelo-mercosul- 19157026 . http://en.mercopress.com/2016/05/24/macri-s-argentina-and-temer-s-brazil-seal-close-political-and- working-relationship 7Oliveira, Eliane. Valente, Gabriela. Iglesias, Simone. Governo Interino Avalia que Venezuela Atrapalha Negociações do Mercosul. O Globo. June 6, 2016. Accessed June 6. http://oglobo.globo.com/economia/governo-interino-avalia-que-venezuela-atrapalha-negociacoes-do- mercosul-1-19444825
8 http://www.valor.com.br/internacional/4541627/paraguai-rechaca-apoio-uso-de-clausula-democratica-contra-o- brasil 9 Oliveira, Eliane. Valente, Gabriela. Iglesias, Simone. Governo Interino Avalia que Venezuela Atrapalha Negociações do Mercosul. O Globo. June 6, 2016. Accessed June 7. http://oglobo.globo.com/economia/governo-interino-avalia-que-venezuela-atrapalha-negociacoes-do- mercosul-1-19444825 10 Oliveira, Eliane. Valente, Gabriela. Iglesias, Simone. Governo Interino Avalia que Venezuela Atrapalha Negociações do Mercosul. O Globo. June 6, 2016. Accessed June 8. June 10, 2016 · [email protected] · http://www.coha.org 3
Rousseff vs. Temer: The Battle for Mercosur
In conclusion, both Rousseff and Temer see Mercosur as an arena to regain international and national support. Brazil leaving Mercosur on the condition of an illegal impeachment could cause a domino effect that might create an array of disastrous consequences for each of the involved players, as well as threaten any prospects for approval ratings if Rousseff returns to power and lower Temer’s fragile approval ratings. It is recommended that Rousseff seek international assistance not through Mercosur, but rather through the Organization of American States (OAS), in which member states such as Venezuela, Bolivia, and Nicaragua have already pledged their support for the former President. In the politically unstable times Brazil finds itself in, it is imperative not to make rash decisions without considering the damaging effects.
By Raphael Mariani and Desirée Mota, Research Associates at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs
http://oglobo.globo.com/economia/governo-interino-avalia-que-venezuela-atrapalha-negociacoes-do- mercosul-1-19444825 June 10, 2016 · [email protected] · http://www.coha.org 4