A Perfect Storm in the Amazon Wilderness Success and Failure in the Fight to Save an Ecosystem of Critical Importance to the Planet Chapter 2 Infrastructure Defines the Future Timothy J. Killeen THE WHITE HORSE PRESS The Old Vicarage, Winwick, Cambridgeshire, PE28 5PN, UK www.whpress.co.uk A Perfect Storm in the Amazon Wilderness Text © Timothy J. Killeen 2021. This work is published online under a CC BY 4.0 licence. You are free to: Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format. Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially. You must give appropriate credit and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. Illustrations © Timothy J. Killeen and others, as credited. Reuse of illustrations may not be permitted. See individual credit lines for more details. The research for this book was supported by a grant from the Andes and Amazon Program of the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. The author is indebted to his colleagues at the Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado for their collaboration, particularly Liliana Soria for her assistance in preparing the maps and Lisette Correa for the selection of photographs. The White Horse Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this pub- lication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN (combined volumes) 978-1-912186-22-8. doi: 10.3197/9781912186228 Volume 1. ISBN (HB) 978-1-912186-23-5 Volume 2. ISBN (HB) 978-1-912186-24-2 Cover picture © Greg Shields https://www.flickr.com/photos/greg_shields/ A Perfect Storm in the Amazon Wilderness Chapter 2: Infrastructure Defines the Future Contents Infrastructure Defines the Future . 73 Roads: Primary Vectors of Deforestation. 76 The Human-Modified Landscapes (HML) and the Brazilian highway network . 79 The Andean republics . 98 Carretera Marginal de la Selva . .. 109 The Guiana Shield and the Coastal Plain . .. 111 Hydropower: A Shift toward Reduced Impact Facilities, . .113 The Guri complex and the Caroni Cascade . 119 Tucuruí and the Tocantins Cascade . .. 121 The Madeira hydropower complex . 123 Belo Monte and the Río Xingu . .. 126 The Tapajós Basin and the prevalence of indigenous rights . 131 The Río Trombetas and the Calha Norte . 132 Bolivia seeks an energy export model . 134 Peru embraces the private energy sector . 136 Ecuador chooses hydropower with assistance from China . 140 The future of hydropower in the Pan Amazon . 142 Global Competition Drives Bulk Transport Systems. .145 Waterway options . .. 152 Railroad Development . 160 Finance: What is New and What is Not. 168 Public-Private Partnerships . 170 Investment from China . .. 178 Sustainable Infrastructure: In Search of an Oxymoron . .188 Annex 2.1. IIRSA investments. 198 Annex 2.2. Selected attributes of the Human Modified Landscapes recognised in the Pan Amazon. 199 Bibliography. .200 Notes to Chapter 2. 208 Figures, Tables and Text Boxes Figure 2.1: The Integration of the Regional Infrastructure of South America (IIRSA) initiative. .75 Figure 2.2: Human-modified landscapes are usually associated with one or more highway corridors. 78 Figure 2.3: Two parallel highways built in the 1960s (BR-153) and 1990s (Br-158/155) opened the southeast Amazon for settlement. 80 Figure 2.4: The forest remnants between the major highway corridors in eastern Pará and Maranhão. 82 Figure 2.5: The ongoing improvement of the trunk highways in Pará (BR-163, BR-230) will accelerate deforestation on landscapes that are transitioning from forest frontiers to agricultural frontiers. .. .83 Figure 2.6: The agricultural economy of the Southern Amazon is highly dependent upon a network of paved highways and improved secondary roads. 84 Figure 2.7: A temporal comparison of deforestation associated with BR-364 in Rondônia and BR-230 in Pará. .. 89 Figure 2.8: The frontier highways (BR-230 and BR-319) roughly parallel the Madeira Waterway. .. 90 Figure 2.9: The Corridor Interoceanico is the quintessential IIRSA-sponsored initiative. 92 Figure 2.10: The northeast quadrant of the Pan-Amazon is relatively roadless except for BR-174. 96 Figure 2.11: The highways of the Peruvian Amazon connect different sectors of the high Andes with disjunct landscapes in the Amazon piedmont. .102 Contents Figure 2.12: The Ecuadorian Amazon has the densest and most improved road network in the Andean Amazon. 104 Figure 2.13: Rivers also act as deforestation vectors. .107 Figure 2.14: The Carretera Marginal de la Selva. 110 Figure 2.15: The declining dependence on hydropower in Amazonian countries. 113 Figure 2.16: The distribution of existing and planned hydropower plants in the Pan Amazon. 114 Figure 2.17: Key biophysical attributes of the Amazon Watershed. .117 Figure 2.18: The proximity of existing, proposed and cancelled hydropower plants with indigenous lands and protected areas. 122 Text Box 2.1: ‘The dams are blocking the fish’ – by Michael Goulding. 126 Figure 2.19: The Belo Monte hydropower facility generated enormous civil and legal conflicts. .127 Figure 2.20: The existing, planned and potential hydropower capacity of the major Amazonian river basins. .. 139 Figure 2.21: Global averages for cost overruns on infrastructure. .143 Figure 2.22: Potential bulk transport systems under evaluation for moving grain production from Mato Grosso to export terminals. .. 148 Table 2.1: Estimated transportation options available to producers between 2010 and 2016 for grain shipped from three municipalities in Mato Grosso. .150 Contents Table 2.2: Estimated cost of transportation options for grain shipped from three municipalities in Mato Grosso based on probable future development. .151 Figure 2.23: The comparative cost of three different bulk transport system as a function of distance for farmers in central Mato Grosso, Brazil. .. 152 Table 2.3: Infrastructure projects supported by the PPI. 174 Figure 2.24: The distribution of disbursements made to infrastructure projects located in the Legal Amazon by the Brazilian Economic and Social Development Bank (BNDES). 176 Figure 2.25: Distribution of investments by Chinese entities in Amazonian countries and within their Amazonian jurisdictions. 179 Figure 2.26: Financial flows for infrastructure investments in the Pan Amazonian countries. 180 Table 2.4: Comparison of potable water and sewage provision in major cities. 191 Figure 2.27: The major components of the fibre optic network in the Pan Amazon. 194 Annex 2.1. IIRSA investments. .198 Annex 2.2. Selected attributes of the Human Modified Landscapes recognised in the Pan Amazon. 199 Chapter 2 . Infrastructure Defines the Future The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines infrastructure as the ‘underlying structure’ of a country – specifically, the physical installations needed to ensure that its economy functions for the benefit of society. Modern infra- structure is made of steel and concrete and is ubiquitous in an advanced economy; typically, it is taken for granted by the people who depend upon it for their livelihoods. People living in emerging economies and developing countries do not suffer from this underappreciation of the value of infra- structure and, typically, are strong proponents of investing in it. Conspicuous infrastructure assets include roads, bridges, railways, airports, ports, dams, power plants, energy grids, information networks, and water and sewer systems. Equally important are the physical assets that support key social services, such as schools, clinics, hospitals and recreational facilities. Most are built by the state, although some may be operated by private companies granted concessions by governments; quite a few are privately owned. Infrastructure assets are a perfect example of a long-term investment: they require a large initial investment in financial capital and pay dividends in the form of revenues and increased economic activity over decades or even centuries.* Most infrastructure assets in the Pan Amazon are the product of long- term investment strategies formulated by governments at five-to-ten-year intervals. Regardless of the periodic shifts reflecting societal consensus and electoral cycles that have occurred over the last several decades, two themes have featured prominently in all the plans, programmes and proj- ects: economic development and regional integration. * Modern examples of infrastructure assets that have operated for more than a century include the Suez and Panama canals, the rail networks of North Ameri- ca and Europe; historical examples include the roads of the Roman Empire, the irrigation systems of Mesopotamia and the flood control levees of the Yellow River in China. doi: 10.3197/9781912186228.ch02 74 Infrastructure Defines the Future © Dr Morley Read/shutterstock.com Highway E-20 adjacent to the Río Napo in Amazonian Ecuador. In Brazil, the modern era of infrastructure investment began in the 1970s with the Programa de Integração Nacional (PIN) that kicked off the construction of the highway network that has transformed the Southern Amazon. This was followed in the 1990s by the federal government diver- sifying its investment portfolio to include hydropower, waterways and railroads within priority geographies known as Eixos Nacionais de Integração e Desenvolvimento (ENID).* In the