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Online Appendix Nonpartisans as False Negatives Online Appendix (A) Question Wordings 1. Brazilian Electoral Panel Study (BEPS), 2014 Variables in the IRT models • Prefer(P0N0): What is your preferred political party? [Qual é o seu partido político de preferência?] [Treatment 1] Waves 1 and 6 responses. • Consider(P1N1): Do you consider yourself a pedetista, pemedebista, pesse- bista, petista, tucano, an identier of some other party, or do you not identify with any political party? [Você se considera pedetista, pemedebista, pesse- bista, petista, tucano, se identica com outro partido, ou não se identica com nenhum partido?] [Treatment 2] Waves 1 and 6 responses. • Way of thinking(P0N1): Is there a political party that represents your way of thinking? [If yes]: Which political party best represents your way of thinking? [Existe algum partido político que representa a maneira como você pensa? [Si sim]: Qual o partido que melhor representa a maneira como você pensa?] [Treatment 3] Waves 1 and 6 responses. • Sympathy(P0N1): Currently, do you sympathize with a political party? [If yes]: With which political party do you sympathize? [Atualmente o(a) Sr.(a) simpatiza com algum partido político? [Si sim]: Com qual partido o(a) Sr.(a). simpatiza?] Waves 1 and 6 responses. • Feeling thermometer: Now let's think about politicians and parties. What grade between 0 and 10, where 0 is the lowest grade and 10 is the highest grade, would you give to the following politicians and political parties? PT. PSDB. [Vamos pensar agora em alguns políticos e partidos. Que nota entre 0 e 10, onde 0 é a nota mais baixa e 10 é a nota mais alta, o sr./sra. dá para os seguintes políticos e partidos políticos? PT. PSDB.] Waves 1 and 6 responses. • Vote in pres. election: In October there will be elections for president. If the election were today and these were the candidates, for whom would you vote? Dilma Rousse [coded as 1 in PT model, all other options as 0], Aécio Neves [coded as 1 PSDB model, all other options as 0], Eduardo Campos, Marina Silva, Pastor Everaldo Pereira, Levy Fidelix, Randolfe Rodrigues, I would an- nul my vote, I would not vote, DK, NR. [Em outubro haverá eleições para presidente. Se a eleição fosse hoje, e se estes fossem os candidatos, em quem o(a) Sr.(a) votaria? Dilma Rousse [PT], Aécio Neves [PSDB], Eduardo Campos, Marina Silva, Pastor Everaldo Pereira, Levy Fidelix, Randolfe Ro- drigues, Anularia o voto/votaria em branco, Não iria votar, NS, NR] Waves 1 and 6 responses. 1 Nonpartisans as False Negatives Criterion variables • Rousse current 2-party vote: In answer to Vote in pres. election: (1) Dilma Rousse, (0) Aécio Neves, (.) all other responses. Waves 1 and 6 responses. • Rousse future 2-party vote: In answer to Vote in pres. election: (1) Dilma Rousse, (0) Aécio Neves, (.) all other responses. Wave 6 responses using partisanship measures from wave 1 only. • Rousse job approval: In your opinion, is the President Dilma Rousse gov- ernment (5) great, (4) good, (3) normal, (2) bad, or (1) horrible? [Na sua opinião, a presidente Dilma Rousse está fazendo um governo ótimo, bom, regular, ruim ou péssimo?] Waves 1 and 6 responses. • Rousse - Neves feeling therms: Now let's think about politicians and par- ties. What grade between 0 and 10, where 0 is the lowest grade and 10 is the highest grade, would you give to the following politicians and political par- ties? Dilma Rousse. Aécio Neves [Vamos pensar agora em alguns políticos e partidos. Que nota entre 0 e 10, onde 0 é a nota mais baixa e 10 é a nota mais alta, o sr./sra. dá para os seguintes políticos e partidos políticos? Dilma Rousse. Aécio Neves.] Variable used is Rousse score minus Neves score. Wave 1 responses. 2. Levada Centre Omnibus Survey, November 2015 Variables in the IRT models • Prefer(P1N0): What is your preferred political party? United Russia, Com- munist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF), Liberal Democrat Party of Russia (LDPR), Just Russia, or another one? [Êàêóþ ïîëèòè÷åñêóþ ïàð- òèþ Âû ïðåäïî÷èòàåòå: ¾Åäèíóþ Ðîññèþ¿, ¾ÊÏÐÔ¿, ¾ËÄÏп, ¾Ñïðà- âåäëèâóþ Ðîññèþ¿ èëè êàêóþ-ëèáî äðóãóþ ïàðòèþx?] [Treatment 1] • Prefer(P0N0): What is your preferred political party? [Êàêóþ ïîëèòè÷å- ñêóþ ïàðòèþ Âû ïðåäïî÷èòàåòå] [Treatment 2] • Belong(P1N1): Do you belong to the supporters of United Russia, Commu- nist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democrat Party of Russia, A Just Russia, another political party, or do you not belong to the supporters of any political party? [Âû ïðèíàäëåæèòå ê ñòîðîííèêàì ¾Åäèíîé Ðîññèè¿, ¾ÊÏÐÔ¿, ¾ËÄÏп, ¾Ñïðàâåäëèâîé Ðîññèè¿ èëè êàêîé-ëèáî äðóãîé ïàð- òèè, - èëè Âû íå ïðèíàäëåæèòå ê ñòîðîííèêàì íè îäíîé èç ïîëèòè÷åñêèõ ïàðòèé?] [Treatment 3] • Close(P0N1): Do you usually think of yourself as close to any particular political party? [If yes]: Which party? Please name it. Ñóùåñòâóåò ëè ïîëèòè÷åñêàÿ ïàðòèÿ, êîòîðàÿ, ïî Âàøåìó ìíåíèþ, áëèçêà Âàì? ×òî ýòî çà ïàðòèÿ? Íàçîâèòå, ïîæàëóéñòà. • Feeling thermometer: We would like to know your views on various political parties. Please rate your attitude towards them on a scale, which we call the `feeling thermometer.' Our thermometer has a scale from zero to 100 de- grees, where zero is for a party you do not like very much, 50 degrees means 2 Nonpartisans as False Negatives a party you like and dislike about equally, and 100 degrees is a party you like very much. Please tell me how you feel about the following parties? United Russia. Communist Party. Liberal Democrat Party of Russia. [Recoded to a 0 to 10 scale.] [Ìû õîòåëè áû óçíàòü Âàøå îòíîøåíèå ê ðàçëè÷íûì ïàðòèÿì. Ïîæàëóéñòà, îöåíèòå ñâîå îòíîøåíèå ê íèì ïî øêàëå, êîòîðóþ ìû íàçûâàåì Òåðìîìåòðîì ÷óâñòâ". Íàø òåðìîìåòð èìååò øêàëó îò Î äî 100 ãðàäóñîâ, ãäå Î ãðàäóñîâ îçíà÷àåò, ÷òî ïàðòèÿ Âàì î÷åíü íå íðà- âèòñÿ, 50 ãðàäóñîâ îçíà÷àåò, ÷òî ïàðòèÿ Âàì è íðàâèòñÿ, è íå íðàâèòñÿ â ðàâíîé ñòåïåíè, à 100 ãðàäóñîâ - ÷òî ïàðòèÿ Âàì î÷åíü íðàâèòñÿ. Ñêà- æèòå, ïîæàëóéñòà, êàê Âû îòíîñèòåñü ê ñëåäóþùèì ïàðòèÿì? ¾Åäèíàÿ Ðîññèÿ¿. ¾Êîììóíèñòè÷åñêàÿ ïàðòèÿ Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè¿ (ÊÏÐÔ). ¾Ïîëèòè÷åñêàÿ ïàðòèÿ ËÄÏп.] • Vote in Duma elections: If a Duma election were held this Sunday, would you vote and, if so, which party would you vote for? [ÅÑËÈ ÁÛ Â ÁËÈÆÀÉ- ØÅÅ ÂÎÑÊÐÅÑÅÍÜÅ ÏÐÎÕÎÄÈËÈ ÂÛÁÎÐÛ Â ÃÎÑÓÄÀÐÑÒÂÅÍ- ÍÓÞ ÄÓÌÓ, ÏÐÈÍßËÈ ÁÛ ÂÛ Ó×ÀÑÒÈÅ Â ÝÒÈÕ ÂÛÁÎÐÀÕ, È ÅÑËÈ ÄÀ, ÇÀ ÊÀÊÓÞ ÏÀÐÒÈÞ ÂÛ ÁÛ ÏÐÎÃÎËÎÑÎÂÀËÈ?] Criterion variables • Duma vote for UR: In answer to Vote in Duma elections: (1) United Russia, (0) all other parties, (.) all other responses. • Putin job approval: Do you approve of the activities of Vladimir Putin as president of Russia? (4) Yes, denitely. (3) Yes, somewhat. (2) No, some- what. (1) No, denitely. (.) Dicult to answer [ÎÄÎÁÐßÅÒÅ ËÈ ÂÛ ÄÅßÒÅËÜÍÎÑÒÜ ÂËÀÄÈÌÈÐÀ ÏÓÒÈÍÀ ÍÀ ÏÎÑÒÓ ÏÐÅÇÈÄÅÍ- ÒÀ ÐÎÑÑÈÈ? (4) áåçóñëîâíî, äà. (3) ñêîðåå, äà. (2) ñêîðåå, íåò. (1) áåç- óñëîâíî, íåò. (.) çàòðóäíÿþñü îòâåòèòü.] • Government approval: Do you approve of the activities of the current gov- ernment of Russia? (4) Yes, denitely. (3) Yes, somewhat. (2) No, some- what. (1) No, denitely. (.) Dicult to answer [ÎÄÎÁÐßÅÒÅ ËÈ ÂÛ ÄÅßÒÅËÜÍÎÑÒÜ ÍÛÍÅØÍÅÃÎ ÏÐÀÂÈÒÅËÜÑÒÂÀ ÐÎÑÑÈÈ? (4) áåçóñëîâíî, äà. (3) ñêîðåå, äà. (2) ñêîðåå, íåò. (1) áåçóñëîâíî, íåò. (.) çà- òðóäíÿþñü îòâåòèòü.] • Medvedev job approval: Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the activities of Dmitry Medvedev as prime minister of Russia? (1) Approve. (0) Don't approve. [ÂÛ Â ÖÅËÎÌ ÎÄÎÁÐßÅÒÅ ÈËÈ ÍÅ ÎÄÎÁÐß- ÅÒÅ ÄÅßÒÅËÜÍÎÑÒÜ ÄÌÈÒÐÈß ÌÅÄÂÅÄÅÂÀ ÍÀ ÏÎÑÒÓ ÏÐÅÄ- ÑÅÄÀÒÅËß ÏÐÀÂÈÒÅËÜÑÒÂÀ ÐÎÑÑÈÈ? (1) îäîáðÿþ. (0) íå îäîá- ðÿþ.] • Duma vote for LDPR: In answer to Vote in Duma elections: (1) LDPR, (0) all other parties, (.) all other responses. • Duma vote for CPRF : In answer to Vote in Duma elections: (1) CPRF, (0) all other parties, (.) all other responses. 3 Nonpartisans as False Negatives 3. American National Election Study (ANES), 2012. Variables in the IRT models 1 1 • Think(P N )Dem: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat (1), a Republican (0), an Independent (0), or what (0)? 1 0 • Think*(P N )Dem: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat (1), a Republican (0), an Independent, or what (0)? [If Indepen- dent] Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party (0) or to the Democratic Party (1)? 1 1 • Think(P N )Rep: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat (0), a Republican (1), an Independent (0), or what (0)? 1 0 • Think*(P N )Rep: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat (0), a Republican (1), an Independent, or what (0)? [If Indepen- dent] Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party (1) or to the Democratic Party (0)? • Close(P0N1): Do you feel yourself a little closer to one of the political parties than the others? [If yes]: Which party do you feel closest to? • Feeling thermometer: Please look at this page of the booklet. I'd like to get your feelings toward some of our political leaders and other people who are in the news these days. I'll read the name of a person and I'd like you to rate that person using something we call the feeling thermometer. Ratings between 50 degrees and 100 degrees mean that you feel favorable and warm toward the person. Ratings between 0 degrees and 50 degrees mean that you don't feel favorable toward the person and that you don't care too much for that person. You would rate the person at the 50 degree mark if you don't feel particularly warm or cold toward the person.
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