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Home , Mitt Romney, Race for the White House, Tim Pawlenty

THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE: FROM THE MESS OBAMA INHERITED TO ONE HE OWNS

Gil Troy

The 2012 US presidential campaign is shaping up to be harsh and historic, with lots of hysterics. President is entering into it in a surprisingly weakened state, while Republicans have proved surprisingly resistant to their lead candidate throughout the “invisible primary,” . Reporters will focus on the candidates’ ups and downs, but take note of the issues emerging and the ritual unfolding, as Americans adhere to their democratic traditions, even during this devastating recession.

La campagne de 2012 à la présidence des États-Unis s’annonce aussi rude qu’historique, et sans doute quelque peu hystérique. Barack Obama l’entame en position d’étonnante faiblesse, tandis que les républicains se montrent étonnamment réfractaires à Mitt Romney, principal candidat de leurs « primaires invisibles ». Les médias se régaleront des grandeurs et misères des aspirants, mais il faudra surveiller quels enjeux s’imposeront et comment se déploiera ce rituel auquel participeront les Américains — suivant la tradition démocratique du pays —, même au cœur d’une récession dévastatrice.

nd they’re off. The US presidential election is a little where elections are won, the incumbent president became vul- less than a year away, the first primary or caucus nerable, and lost. Carter’s press secretary Jody Powell would A votes will not be cast until January, yet it seems that confess after Carter’s electoral defeat in November 1980, “We we have been enduring saturation coverage of the sure as hell spent a lot of time and money fighting him Republican candidates for months. The 2012 campaign is [Kennedy] that would have been better spent against Reagan.” already shaping up as one that will be harsh and historic By contrast, was an unpopular incumbent going with lots of hysterics. The big surprises, so far, are that into the 1996 re-election campaign, and George W. Bush was President Barack Obama is entering into it in such a weak- vulnerable on the already messy war in 2004. Both were ened state and that “early favourites” like former governor spared primary opponents, and both secured second terms. of already crashed and burned as Beyond that one piece of very good news, Obama is candidates. Much can happen once the primaries and cau- swimming in a sea of trouble. After Obama’s near messian- cuses begin, but it is worth assessing what we have learned ic, redemptive, election night celebration in November so far, during the “invisible primary” year of 2011, the long 2008, few would have predicted that he would not be a buildup when successful candidates need to be developing shoo-in for a second term. Even fewer would have predicted organizations, raising money, honing their messages and that by the end of 2011, Obama’s popularity would be flag- starting to build that elusive, magical momentum. ging, confidence in his leadership would be dropping and On the Democratic side, Obama seems to have caught one even his speechmaking would be losing its magic touch. very lucky break among all the bad breaks he has endured. No In fairness, the Great Crash of 2008, which all but guaran- one is contesting his nomination within the Democratic Party. teed Obama’s election, has severely complicated his presiden- This fact alone improves his chances of re-election dramatical- cy. When Obama launched his campaign in 2007 he assumed ly. In the last 50 years, the only presidents to lose re-election his would be a prosperity presidency, redistributing goodies were first weakened by a harsh primary contest within their and rebuilding infrastructure amid a continuing boom. respective parties for the nominations. George H.W. Bush suf- Whatever criticisms he and his fellow Democrats voiced about fered from ’s attacks in 1992, George W. Bush’s economy, had he or any of his allies expect- endured the crusade in 1980 and got ed a crash, they would have shorted the market and made a for- the treatment in 1976. In each case, by being tune. Instead, Obama inherited an economic mess that, with forced to endure sustained attacks from within the party and the passage of time, has become his. Just as Americans tend to play to the partisan extreme rather than the sweet centre, forget the origins of some family feuds, no matter how nasty,

POLICY OPTIONS 61 DECEMBER 2011-JANUARY 2012 Gil Troy

they tend to forget the origins of eco- market and low morale, one of the most did not consider Bill Clinton that kind nomic busts, no matter how dramatic at disturbing things about Obama’s presi- of a leader. In 2008, he demonstrated the start, when they stay so nasty for so dency is that no one is afraid of him. potential to be a Democratic Ronald long on a succeeding president’s watch. America’s enemies in Iran, Pakistan, Reagan, updating and renewing tired The shock so many people experi- , Iraq and elsewhere do not ideologies through his eloquence, the ence when they look at their bank fear him — although he deserves credit excitement he generated and the vision statements, the surprise Obama must for stepping up drone hits against major he articulated of a multicultural The shock so many people experience when they look at their American nationalism, envi- sioning a patriotic, family bank statements, the surprise Obama must experience friendly and compassionate whenever he looks at his poll ratings, has led to another America. Ideologically, as a unexpected blow — Obama’s presidency, so far, has been a candidate, Obama corrected particularly sour time. the excess liberalism of the 1960s in three important experience whenever he looks at his terrorists and giving the green light to ways. First, he dismissed the New Left poll ratings, has led to another unex- the operation that killed Osama Bin tendency to trash core American values pected blow — Obama’s presidency, so Laden, after nearly 10 years on the lam. while demanding America reform. far, has been a particularly sour time. Obama’s subordinates do not fear him Second, he did not believe that every The “Yes we can” candidate of 2008 — as evidenced by word of a chaotic problem could be solved if you could promising “hope and change” to the White House that lacks the discipline just develop the right government pro- country has become the “No we can- that comes from having a tougher — gram. Third, he understood that politics not” president of 2011, with a country and more experienced — boss. was important, but culture counted too. increasingly bereft of hope and desper- This was a post-Great Society and post- ate to change but skeptical any good nd Obama’s opponents do not Reagan liberalism, clearly progressive, will come of it. The charming healer A fear him — epitomized in that but also clearly sobered and enlightened who first commanded attention when moment in early September when he by four decades’ worth of experience. he addressed the Democratic National publicly requested to address the Unfortunately, Obama’s first three Convention in 2004, urging Congress about his jobs bill on a years have been more Jimmy Carter than Americans not to allow themselves to Wednesday night and Speaker of the Ronald Reagan, more apologetic than be sliced and diced into a Red America House pushed him off to patriotic, more about America’s limits and a Blue America, has presided over a Thursday night. Beyond the fact that than about America’s greatness, more a very divided, cranky America. this mistake could have been avoided about economic constraints than entre- Obama himself has vacillated by good staff work before going public, preneurial horizons and more about between partisanship and bipartisan- one did not sense that Obama would American retreats and defeats than ship, between stubbornness and cen- take revenge or in any way demon- about American victories. Republicans trism. Neither mode has fully worked strate that you should not push around are desperately hoping that in for him. Trusting the partisan Congress the Leader of the Free World. November Obama will play Jimmy to run with the health care reform By November 2011, Obama’s sec- Carter to the Ronald Reagan they choose helped pass the historic bill but saddled ond chief of staff, William Daley, had — and become a one-term president like him with a program so complicated few downsized his own duties, relying Carter was. Obama, in this one way, is can understand it enough to explain more on his deputy, Pete Rouse. This hoping to follow in Bill Clinton’s foot- fully why they hate it — or love it. And admission of failure was another blow steps, remembering that in 1996, the even though his opponents are no more and further proof that those of us who first-term Democrat was unpopular, con- sure of what is in that massive plan than worried that the former academic and sidered not quite up for the job, initially his supporters are, they have a perfect community organizer had never been a written off in the endless predicting and one-word moniker for it, “Obamacare,” manager and lacked that all-important speculating that consumes too much which will make it an easy target. At the executive skill set were right. American political reporting, but ulti- same time, when Obama has been more From the start of his presidency, mately, blessed by a hapless Republican conciliatory, those same opponents Barack Obama has contended with two opponent — in Clinton’s case the aging have remained unyielding, often presidential ghosts — those of Jimmy Senator . obnoxiously so, making him look weak. Carter and Ronald Reagan. During his This then is Barack Obama’s biggest Beyond the unhappy headlines, campaign, Obama upset Bill and Hillary electoral asset so far — the sorry state of especially regarding America’s high Clinton by confessing his desire to be a the Republican Party and the very good unemployment, mushrooming debt, “transformational” president like chance that the Republicans will volatile markets, moribund housing Reagan — and it was clear that Obama advance a mediocre candidate. So far,

62 OPTIONS POLITIQUES DÉCEMBRE 2011-JANVIER 2012 The race for the White House: From the mess Obama inherited to one he owns

Policy Options photo The White House is the prize awaiting either Barack Obama or his Republican opponent at the end of the race for the American presidency in 2012. the field has been dominated by a can- into the sea rather than pay the odious of, and so far. Romney, a multi-million- didate who would not run — Sarah taxes the British colonial government aire business consultant and former Palin; a supposed front-runner who ran was imposing. Yet, thanks to Tea Party governor of , looks so badly — Tim Pawlenty; and a front-run- members’ own tendency toward presidential, with his perfectly greyed ner who many Republicans are running extremism, compounded by the dis- temples, it hurts. And in one away from — Mitt Romney. Moreover, dainful media coverage and Democratic shot taken during the debates, a full the Republicans in Congress have mockery, “Tea Party” tends to evoke the page colour photograph of Mitt shown a remarkable ability to alienate Mad Hatter’s crazy soirée in Alice in Romney and his Texas rival, Governor more voters than the Democrats do. Wonderland rather than one of the , had the two of them looking American Revolution’s iconic moments. so perfectly presidential, one wondered lthough Obama has frequently had This fall, the zeal with which if Hollywood directors would have to A to concede to them more than he reporters puffed up the “Occupy Wall stop filming whatever political movies wishes, he and his fellow Democrats Street” movement, treating it as a serious they are currently shooting, because have succeeded in tagging Republicans game-changer rather than a bizarre mar- central casting has run out of people as obstructionists, extremists, the party ginal coalition of homeless street people who look like they should be president. of no. The Tea Party, that broad-based, and aimless slackers, as unfocused as Romney’s great success so far has unfocused collection of anti-big-govern- they are unwashed, reflected the desper- been his steadfastness. “I think people ment activists, which helped the ate need to have a counter to the Tea understand that I’m a man of steadi- Republicans take back the House of Party. Typically — and luckily for Obama ness and constancy,” Romney said dur- Representatives in the 2010 election — the media has taken the “OWS” ing the 10th debate, in his home state of campaign, has been painted as a bunch movement more seriously than it should , noting he worked at the of lunatics. The activists picked the and treated the Tea Party as even loopier same company for 25 years, has been name to evoke the famous Tea and more destructive than it is. married to his high school sweetheart Party, when Sons of Liberty dressed up Going into the first round of vot- for 42 years and has stayed with the as “Indians” — long before they were ing, Mitt Romney surprised many by same church all his life. His own called Native Americans — to throw tea emerging as the last man standing, sort staffers admit he worked out the

POLICY OPTIONS 63 DECEMBER 2011-JANUARY 2012 Gil Troy

“kinks” from his 2008 run, when Carter’s presidency and suggested a link mean, we’ll wait until tomorrow and — department store dummies seemed less between Democrats in the White House and — and see which Mitt Romney stiff than he did on the campaign trail. and swine flu outbreaks. Alas, the factu- we’re really talking to tonight.” Romney demonstrated an impressive al foundation on which she builds her In a subsequent debate, when he ability to learn from his mistakes, and wacky apocalyptic libel is wrong. The knew he was being scrutinized and try- his campaign this fall has been all but last two swine flu outbreaks occurred ing to restore supporters’ confidence, flawless. In fact, the dynamic has been during Gerald Ford’s and Ronald Perry stumbled badly, pausing for nearly steady — Mitt allowing one candidate Reagan’s Republican administrations. a minute trying to remember the third after another to fail in the debate, but Bachmann’s ignorance sometimes federal agency he vowed to eliminate. In being just animated enough, just clever requires research to unravel — keeping the age of YouTube, these zingers rico- enough, to appear to win rather than reporters busy yelling “Gotcha”; Texas cheted around the blogosphere, defining simply enjoying a victory by default. Governor Rick Perry’s assaults on the the candidate in one agonizing, 53-sec- Minnesota representative Michele English language are immediately obvi- ond fumble. His instantly famous Bachmann had her moment early on as ous — keeping voters laughing. Perry sequence, promising to end the com- the Tea Party “it girl.” On August 13, started off with a $17-million war chest merce department, the 2011, she won the Ames Straw Poll and a good reputation as an effective department and, and, and...“Oops,” may hosted by the Republican Party — chief executive in one of the few states turn out to be the most devastating a precursor to one of the great scams of that is booming during this miserable debate gaffe in primary campaigning the campaign, the exaggerated atten- economic period. But the tongue-tied history. (In anticipation of the inevitable tion given to the and the Texan, who makes George W. Bush Trivial Pursuit question and Jeopardy New Hampshire primary, simply sound like Demosthenes, has simply answer, the third department Rick Perry because these two small, non- hoped to eliminate is the Energy representative states have mus- Unfortunately, Obama’s first three Department). Governor Perry cled their way to the front of the years have been more Jimmy Carter has ruefully admitted, “Debates line. It makes a mockery of than Ronald Reagan, more are not my strong suit,” but his democracy to see how the two apologetic than patriotic, more campaign endured too many major political parties, the mass humiliating moments to build media and too much of the US about America’s limits than about any momentum in the fall. kowtow to the whims of the America’s greatness, more about Beyond the verbal rubble, party czars in those two states. economic constraints than Perry was zeroing in on one of entrepreneurial horizons and more the biggest threats to a Romney achmann’s minor victory about American retreats and defeats nomination. In a clearer B has been forgotten in a cloud moment, Perry called himself of sloppiness, as her wild state- than about American victories. “an authentic conservative — ments perpetuated many of the not a conservative of conven- stereotypes about Tea Party types being come across as clumsy and not very ience,” dissing Romney, who had to be the know-nothings of today. Bachmann smart, showing that nearly 10 years of politically and ideologically nimble to celebrated New Hampshire as the “the governing in Texas does not provide survive as a Republican in what has been state where the shot heard round the you with the kind of tough, political called the People’s Republic of world [was] in Lexington and Concord.” seasoning just a few weeks on the presi- Taxachusetts. Romney is not a true blue There is a Concord, New Hampshire, but dential campaign trail offers. “I think conservative and the GOP’s core con- the relevant Concord and Lexington are Americans just don’t know sometimes stituents do not trust him. As governor, in neighbouring Massachusetts. which Mitt Romney they’re dealing Romney flip-flopped on the mostly irrel- Schmoozing Iowans, she compared her- with,” Perry said in an early debate, evant but defining issue of abortion and self to John Wayne, who she said was starting what was clearly a canned com- pushed through Massachusetts health from , Iowa; he was born in ment he then proceeded to botch: “Is it care legislation that has many similari- Winterset, but the serial killer John the Mitt Romney that was on the side of ties to Obamacare. Unfortunately, the Wayne Gacy was indeed from Waterloo. against the Second Amendment before fact that he is a presents anoth- More disturbing than her fractured he was for the Second Amendment? er obstacle, especially for Evangelical historical facts is Bachmann’s voodoo Was it — was before he was before the Protestants who see as pseudo-science, because it festers in the social programs, from the standpoint of paganism. Of course, Romney’s great ugly intersection where demagogic ani- he was for standing up for Roe v. Wade weakness in the primaries will turn into mus meets ignorant mysticism. In one before he was against Roe v. Wade? He his great strength if he makes it to the interview she noted that the last swine was for Race to the Top, he’s for general election. Romney is the most flu outbreak occurred during Jimmy Obamacare, and now he’s against it. I viable candidate Democrats will have a

64 OPTIONS POLITIQUES DÉCEMBRE 2011-JANVIER 2012 The race for the White House: From the mess Obama inherited to one he owns hard time mocking as a loon and demo- Gingrich already has had his dirty laun- demoralized society, a media culture nizing as an extremist. Romney’s fellow dry repeatedly aired, culminating in his encouraging laziness and self-indulgence Mormon, Governor Jon Huntsman, abrupt resignation as house speaker dur- at a time when creativity and self-sacri- could also be better packaged as a states- ing the Clinton impeachment imbroglio. fice were needed, a mess in Afghanistan man than a partisan, but he has been at But this supposedly reformed philander- and Iraq, an increasingly hostile Pakistan the back of the pack along with er, now on his third wife, lacks discipline. and Turkey, an aggressive Iran seeking to Representative of Texas and He lacks the discipline to rein in his com- go nuclear, an Arab Spring threatening to go Islamist, a Middle East Romney’s great weakness in the primaries will turn into his seemingly always on the great strength if he makes it to the general election. Romney brink of explosion, Europe is the most viable candidate Democrats will have a hard time decompensating economical- mocking as a loon and demonizing as an extremist. ly, America needed even more salvation than usual. former senator of ments, balancing his intelligent But while the pundits and cynics Pennsylvania. The way campaign cover- informed insights with wacky inevitably would focus on the cam- age works, each one, if he lasts long humdingers. He lacks the discipline to paign’s carnival-like grotesqueries, which enough, will probably enjoy some listen to others, resulting in the mass res- seem particularly inappropriate at this moment in the sun, when the pack of ignation of his key campaign aides last historical juncture, they would be mis- reporters decides to boost him, but all spring. And he and his wife lack the dis- taken to overlook some of the funda- four were surprisingly sidelined through- cipline to resist spending hundreds of mental strengths on display as well. The out the fall. thousands of dollars at Tiffany’s at a time fact that this continent-wide conversa- Initially, the candidate who most of great candidate scrutiny and deep, tion among more than 300 million citi- benefited from Republican partisans’ widespread American recession. Still, zens was taking place peacefully, the fact anybody-but-Mitt desperation was the Gingrich was hoping that, just as in 2008 that the political structure was continu- former Godfather Pizza king Herman John McCain’s campaign for the nomi- ing steadily during this tumultuous time, Cain. Cain’s unconventional, conver- nation crashed and burned only to have and the fact that American freedom, cre- sational, often comedic , as well as a Phoenix-like resurrection, his name ativity, adaptability do not undergo the his simple, thought-provoking 9-9-9 recognition and experience will propel same boom-and-bust cycle as the tax proposal, definitely attracted voter him forward once the voting starts. American economy, should not be over- and press interest. Many overtaxed, looked. In 1982, Americans went from recession-weary Americans, annoyed nce upon a time, Mitt Romney their worst economic crisis since the by Obama’s Big Government interven- O would have been the ideal GOP Great Depression to a peaceful, prosper- tions, like the mathematical simplicity, candidate, a business version of Dwight ous and redemptive Morning in America even poetry, of a 9 percent business Eisenhower, moneyed, Midwestern, presidential campaign just two years flat tax, a 9 percent individual flat tax mature. And amid a lingering recession, later. He may be the wrong man to quote and a 9 percent national sales tax. with the unemployment rate of nine- during this tender time in American his- Cain’s candidacy floundered, however, point-whatever-percent understood to tory, but ultimately was when the candidate of 9-9-9 seemed be a small indicator of the many more right, “prosperity is just around the cor- not to have learned that no means no. people underemployed or no longer ner.” How Americans get there, how long With claims of sexual harassment even trying, with a liberal Democrat it takes and whether they have or can mounting, the unconventional candi- with no business experience and a find a leader who will take them there date started looking like any other dwindling supply of corporate floun- sooner or later remain the great mysteries hack caught up in the mess he has dering in office, Romney appeared to be that will unravel gradually, haphazardly, made in the past, compounded by the the Republican most likely to beat even as they rush to the next presidential mess he was making with sweeping, Obama. The Romney campaign was election of November 2012. unconvincing denials in the present. betting on the Republican desire to win, Cain and Perry faltered, but Romney trumping the new, post-Ronald Reagan Contributing Writer Gil Troy is a profes- still had not made the sale, it was Newt demand for ideological purity. But the sor of history at McGill University and Gingrich’s turn to enjoy a temporary continuing campaign against Romney, visiting scholar at the Bipartisan Policy boost. Gingrich, the former house speak- not just for the other candidates, put Center in Washington, DC. He is the er, party ideologue and prolific author, that proposition in doubt. author of, among other books, Morning should have been a front-runner. Glib Every presidential campaign is not in America: How Ronald Reagan and passionate, he knows the issues, and only about the individuals seeking office Invented the 1980s. He divides his time in the 1980s demonstrated great skill as a but about a nation seeking salvation. In between Montreal, Washington and party tactician. Moreover, unlike Cain, 2012, with a depressed economy, a Jerusalem. [email protected]

POLICY OPTIONS 65 DECEMBER 2011-JANUARY 2012