U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND THE MARKETS Calculated based on data from CRSP US Stock Databases, CRSP Historical Indexes and CRSP US Treasury Database Center for Research in Security Prices, LLC (CRSP), © 2020 U.S. Presidential Elections since 1928
Nominee Electoral College Votes 1 Year After Election Election Day Election Date Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Equities Returns Bonds Returns Δ CPI Equity Returns 11/6/1928 Alfred E. Smith Herbert C. Hoover 87 444 -8.8% 0.6% 11/8/1932 Franklin D. Roosevelt Herbert C. Hoover 472 59 46.2% -0.8% 11/3/1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt Alfred M. Landon 523 8 -27.2% 4.3% 11/5/1940 Franklin D. Roosevelt Wendell L. Wilkie 449 82 -4.0% 9.3% 11/7/1944 Franklin D. Roosevelt Thomas E. Dewey 432 99 40.8% 2.1% 2.3% 11/2/1948 Harry S. Truman Thomas E. Dewey 303 189 5.9% 2.7% -2.9% 11/4/1952 Adlai Stevenson Dwight D. Eisenhower 89 442 6.5% 2.8% 1.1% 11/6/1956 Adlai Stevenson Dwight D. Eisenhower 73 457 -10.4% 2.0% 2.9% 11/8/1960 John F. Kennedy Richard M. Nixon 303 219 33.6% 3.9% 0.7% 11/3/1964 Lyndon B. Johnson Barry M. Goldwater 486 52 12.8% 2.9% 1.9% 11/5/1968 Hubert H. Humphrey Richard M. Nixon 191 301 -3.0% -0.1% 5.7% 11/7/1972 George S. McGovern Richard M. Nixon 17 520 -7.8% 4.4% 7.8% 11/2/1976 Jimmy Carter Gerald R. Ford 297 240 -3.5% 5.2% 6.4% 11/4/1980 Jimmy Carter Ronald Reagan 49 489 2.1% 7.3% 10.1% 11/6/1984 Walter F. Mondale Ronald Reagan 13 525 19.5% 19.4% 3.2% 1.0% 11/8/1988 Michael S. Dukakis George Bush 111 426 26.1% 10.8% 4.5% 0.4% 11/3/1992 William J. Clinton George Bush 370 168 15.9% 11.4% 2.8% -0.5% 11/5/1996 William J. Clinton Bob Dole 379 159 34.7% 7.2% 2.1% 0.9% 11/7/2000 Albert Gore, Jr. George W. Bush 266 271 -22.7% 15.7% 2.1% -0.1% 11/2/2004 John F. Kerry George W. Bush 251 286 12.5% -1.1% 4.3% 0.0% 11/4/2008 Barack Obama John McCain 365 173 14.4% 5.3% -0.2% 3.9% 11/6/2012 Barack Obama Mitt Romney 332 206 26.7% -0.5% 1.0% 0.8% 11/8/2016 Hillary Clinton Donald J. Trump 227 304 23.6% -0.8% 2.0% 0.4% Average 10.2% 5.3% 3.1% 0.7% Median 12.5% 3.9% 2.3% 0.4%
Source: CRSP US Stock Databases; CRSP Historical Indexes; CRSP US Treasury Database; https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/results Note: CRSP NYSE/NYSE MKT/NASDAQ/Arca Value-Weighted Market Index is used to compute equities returns; returns are computed using initial daily level for the day before an election; CRSP 5-Year Bond Returns series is used to compute bond returns; CRSP 5-Year Bond Returns is a monthly series, so levels as of the end of October are used for computation; CRSP CPI levels are used as of end of October to compute CPI changes. U.S. Stock market was closed on election days through 1980 election.
2 U.S. Presidential Elections and the Markets
Electoral 1 Year Equities Returns Bonds Returns College Return Margin of Victory Δ CPI 60% 600
50% 500
40% 400
30% 300
20% 200
10% 100
0% 0
-10% -100
-20% -200
-30% -300
Source: CRSP US Stock Databases; CRSP Historical Indexes; CRSP US Treasury Database; https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/results Note: CRSP NYSE/NYSE MKT/NASDAQ/Arca Value-Weighted Market Index is used to compute equities returns; returns are computed using initial daily level for the day before an election; CRSP 5-Year Bond Returns series is used to compute bond returns; CRSP 5-Year Bond Returns series is on a monthly frequency, so levels as of end of October are used for computation; CRSP CPI levels are used as of end of October to compute changes.
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