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Monday, Feb.26, 1996 • Volume 2, Number 22 Page 1of8 Lugar hangs on as 'The Alternative' THE Brokered convention is Hoosier's last '96 hope HPR Presidential forecast U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar will try to remain in the 1996 presidential race, hoping for a brokered conven­ HOWEY tion and a shot at becoming a compromise candidate after multiple ballots. Short of that, he'll take a long hard look at 2000.And he won't be alone in the Hoosier state, as both Dan Quayle and Evan Bayh will POLITICAL be sizing up their options for the White House. MANCHESTER,••• N.H. - Saturday••• was a perfect example• •• of why Dick Lugar has not folded his presidential campaign. Steve Forbes won the Delaware primary. In the first four REPORT major contests of the 1996 presidential race, there have been three different winners: Bob Dole in Iowa, Pat Buchanan in New The Weekly Briefing On Indiana Politics Hampshire and Louisiana, and now Forbes in Delaware. But there are major dilemmas for each of those candidates. The Howey Political Report is published 40 times a year by Buchanan will not be able to escape his "extremist"label and seems NewsLi11k,lnc. The Howey Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the political process in to be a perfect fit for Ross Perot's United We Stand party, which will Indiana. It neither endorses candidates nor advocates positions be on the ballot .in· all 50 states. Dole hits the $30 million primary of public policy. season expenditure ceiling in mid-March and it is possible he won't Brian A. Howey have the nomination wrapped up by then. Lamar Alexander has yet editor and publisher to. win a primary, isn't raising much money and has significant ethi­ - cal clouds on his liOrlzon. Howey Political Report Office: 317-685-0883 In PO Box44168 Fax: 317-692-1032 a sense, the conditions are in place for a brokered conven­ Indianapolis, IN 46244 CompuServe: 75141,51 tion.New lVrk Times columnist William Safire went so far as to sug­ gest that in a brokered convention scenario, "Lugar wins on the 10th Subscription information: $250 annually for 40 ballot:' · editions via fax or first class mail. Call 317-685-0883. After watching this GOP field twist in the New Hampshire and © 1995, The Howey Political Report. All rights reserved. Iowa winds these past tWo weeks, there seems to be a growing Photocopying, faxing or reproducing in any form, in whole or in appetite among many Republicans for an old-fashioned multiple-bal­ part, is a violation offederal law and is ~prohibited lot convention. The fear is the party's nominee coming out of the pri­ without the written consent of the editor. mary process will be fl.awed and wounded. Instead of a boring, continued on page 2 "QUOTE" OF THE WEEK INSIDE FEATURES 'We are now engaged in a struggle for the heart • Play of the Week: Carmichael's golf 'outing' page 2 and soul of the Republican Party .... " • Ticker Tap~: Levco zapped in Vandy slating page 2 • HPR Interview: Mark Lubbers on the trail pages 4-5 -U.S. Sen. Bob Dole, after his defeat by • Columnists: Kitchell, Kovener, Meltzer page7 Pat Buchanan, in Manchester, N.H. • Horse Race Is Back for Good! CD updates pageJ _______ , ,_____________________ ,_______ _ Monday,Feb.26, 1996 Page 2 of 8 TICKJ~~R Lugar needs at ~eas,t one victory in Nevil England From page! China showdown fl.a ·e:; up would! feed. into T A E coronation convention in August, the Rep J : li­ notions of Lugar as a foreign policy 1expert. IBllJl•&li"1.. cans might do better against President U L~1ton Without some rnccess in New England, PLAY OF THE WEEK: Thie ieam­ with a San Diego thriller - a hot candidate however, Lugar will be marginalized and he will paig111 staff of U.S. Rep. D11vid emerging on a consensus ticket. have little chance of bf coming The Alternative. Mcintosh sowi~d this little That is why Dick Lugar is sta·ving i:n ihe In fact, if Lugar can't gd 10 percent of the vote story: his probable fall t111>po­ race. But Lugar will need to notch a win s cme­ in his next primary, h1e'll lose cruciaJ federal nent,Marc Carmichael,, i1 1ttend­ where by March 5 to remain viable. The s 1;hts election matching funds. ed a fund-rais,er for M::I ntosh have been set for New England, where bi: is >Cme Even if Luga1 does win a small state, last August.Cairmichae told of only four candidates on the ballot in Rf'i,::i,de should no winner emie:g;e from the field, look the Muncie Star, 0 1was 1tllere Island. The campaign will also concrntral:' on for intense pressure :o be applied ein Gen. 1 representing Indiana Ci i1:1. I go Co-~necticut, Massachusetts and Verma r1t •,;hil e Powell to become The Great Altema1tive. to as many Republicani ·~md­ the rest of the field is on a cross-continent raisers as I do Demom1ti c scramble, Lugar will be the fone candidat~ in What went ww·1:ing? ;e fund-raisers."He said l111diana the Northeast.Forbes won Delaware bet:aJ ht.! Why is Lugar ri ·duced to The Alternative Gas C'o.paid his $125 e111tryfee. was the only candidate to campaign then:, strategy in the first 11la ct:? But he told the Star tl1mt he With at least one win, ailong with a Dole There are man] 1easons, which include: 0 was sure there were sume demise (watch Arizona and S:,Jth Carobm), II This is a "Lu~ar famHy"campaign - people speculating thit~ 1 Lugar believes he can establish serious mdim­ manned by many HC10 1ier loyalists who were tials for the March 19 :Midwest piim:iri,~s in would be the 1event1L1al cl1al­ titans on the Indian< 1 J,, 11 ,dscape. Rm ming a lenger." Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and \ii,'iscon~dn in hLs national race, howev :r, is differenit and much backyard, where U9 delegates will be at stake. tougher. The lone farnily member to have run a REJECTED PLAY OF THE WEEK: Another element possibly coming into national operation - Mitch Daniels as Ronald Several weeks ago, 8th (0 play is the transformation of this electfon from Reagan's political director - didn't come on Democrat Jonathan W1~!i11zap­ domestic to foreign policy. Casualties ir.. Bosnia, board for business a tlCI personal reasons. This is fel complained about a win by nationalists or Communists in th i! no knock on Mark Lubbers, the current cam­ Russian elections this June, or if the Tai,~-.:u- paign manager, but for Lugar to succeed on the Continued on page 3 continued on page 7 _______ , '-----~----------·-··_, _______ _ Page 3 of 8 Monday, Feb. 26, 1996 Encoring with early TICKER line on presidential, HORSE RA c E T A p E gov, congressional Vanderburgh County Yes, it's back. From here to the May 7 primary, Horse Race will analyze the sporting Demoaats slating for the May aspects of Indiana politics. In 1994, we were good at this, calling the three GOP Congressional primary. But on Feb.17, Wein­ seat pickups and the takeover of the Indiana House.Enjoy! zapfel won the slating endorsement with 68 percent REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT STATUS COMMENTS of the vote. Vanderburgh Lamar Alexander, Pat LEANS Dole has the most money. Lamar has ethical and · County Prosecutor Stan Levco Buchanan, Bob Dole, Steve DOLE money problems. Buchanan is a marketing phe- subsequently dropped out of Forbes, Dick Lugar,Alan nom who will end up on Perot's United We Stand the race saying, 0 lt was either Keyes, Bob Dornan ticket. If Dole and Alexander continue to stagger, a very bad defeat or an expres­ look for a brokered convention and vigorous sion on behalfofthe prednct efforts to get Colin Powell in the race. committeemen that I'm doing a good job as prosecutor° (Jim REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR Beck, Evansville Courier). Rex Early, Steve Goldsmith LEANS No fireworks yet.Any of you guys need a match? Weinzapfel now has a differ­ George Witwer GOLD- The longer Goldsmith goes unchallenged, the ent take on slating. °What a SMITH harder for Early to get within the margin of tremendous victory. I have a error. No debate scheduled yet. mandate from Democrats in Vanderburgh County. DEMOCRAT .8.Til CD Hopefully, this will be a spring­ Jonathan Weinzapfel, TOSSUP A few weeks ago, this would have been a "leans board to get me through the Rick McConnell to'' McConnell. But Weinzapfel's slating win in primary." Vanderburgh County shows he's a serious con- tender, particularly since he forced Levco out. The Goldsmith••• administration is refusing to acknowledge an · REPUBLICAN lQlll CD FQI investigation into the dty's Virginia Blankenbaker, TOSSUP Blankenbaker has put together a great campaign Department of Public Works. Marvin Scott staff, with Jim Knoop as its cherry. Key question: °We don't know anything How enthusiastic will the. Marion County GOP about it,"Goldsmith press sec­ come out for Scott? Both candidates will work retary Ed Sagabiel told Nuvo. hard. The FBI had told HPR that it can neither 0 confirm or deny" DEMOCRAT lOTH CD an investigation °particularly Mmoja Ajabu, Julia Carson, LEANS If this is resolved by skin color, Delaney wins. in this case." Nuvo reports that Ann Delaney DELANEY Carson trying to reach out to white voters. Jack F. Smith, a former internal Delaney organizational skills outweigh all the affairs investigator in the people she ticked off as state chair.Ajabu's entry administration, said he was is a bad joke.
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