<<

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Now Tied For Second Place in Republican Preference For President continues to hold big lead as front-runner while slips

ROCHESTER, N.Y. – May 15, 2007 – Fred Thompson, the former Senator from and TV and movie star, is now tied with Senator John McCain for second place as the Republicans’ first choice for President in the 2008 elections. However, they are both a long way behind former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who is preferred by fully 38 percent of those who believe they will vote in the Republican primaries or caucuses. Thompson and McCain are each preferred by 18 percent, followed by former House Speaker with 9 percent and former Governor Mitt Romney with 8 percent.

The most dramatic change to occur in the last month is that Fred Thompson has moved up from 13 percent to 18 percent. However, the largest change is that Romney’s support has slipped from 14 percent to 8 percent.

These are just some of the results of the latest Harris Poll of 2,523 U.S. adults, including 543 adults who expect to vote in a Republican primary or caucus, conducted online by Harris Interactive ® between May 3 and 10, 2007. Like all polls conducted well before an election, it should not be read as a prediction. Rather, it is a snap shot of the presidential “horse race”, at a very early stage in the race. A future column will assess the standing of the leading Democrats.

Who Would “Consider Voting” for Different Republicans? Early in the survey, all adults were shown a list that included candidates in both major political parties as well as other Republican and Democratic leaders, and asked for whom they would consider voting. Among Republicans, Rudy Giuliani (58%) leads (44%), John McCain (42%), (40%), Fred Thompson (36%), Mitt Romney (29%) and Newt Gingrich (28%). This is because none of the Republican leaders have exceptionally strong appeal among Democrats and Independents.

What About Having a Good Head of Hair? The has not had a bald or balding president since President Dwight Eisenhower, and he ran against an equally bald Adlai Stevenson. All presidents and all nominees of the two main parties since 1960, starting with Jack Kennedy and have had a good head of hair.

Given the number of politicians (and TV anchors and newscasters) who have had hair transplants or use hairpieces, it is noteworthy that this year the three leading Republican candidates, Giuliani, McCain and Thompson, are all “follicly challenged” and that Mitt Romney who enjoys a fine head of hair has slipped.

Have American attitudes to baldness changed? Or is it simply coincidence? We’ll find out soon enough.

The Harris Poll ® #39, May 15, 2007 By Humphrey Taylor, chairman of The Harris Poll ®, Harris Interactive. TABLE 1 REPUBLICAN LEADERS ADULTS “WOULD CONSIDER VOTING FOR” FOR PRESIDENT “Although the U.S. presidential election is not until November, 2008, there are a number of people who may run for president. If you were to vote and had to select from the following candidates, for which of the following people would you consider voting?” Base: All adults Feb Mar Apr May Republican Democrat Independent

% % % % % % % Rudy Giuliani 29 35 32 30 58 14 29 Colin Powell 32 30 29 29 44 19 32 John McCain 26 26 24 23 42 13 21 Fred Thompson N/A N/A 15 17 36 4 18 Condoleezza Rice 19 18 17 16 40 4 12 Mitt Romney 7 9 14 12 29 2 10 Newt Gingrich 11 11 12 10 28 2 6 4 N/A 4 5 12 1 4 3 4 3 3 8 * 3 3 3 3 3 7 * 4 Duncan Hunter 2 2 2 3 6 * 2 3 3 3 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 5 * 2 N/A N/A 2 2 3 * 2 N/A N/A 1 1 4 * 1 Note: Multiple-response question *Less than 0.5% N/A not applicable

TABLE 2 REPUBLICAN VOTERS FIRST CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT “There are many different people who are, or who may become, candidates for president in the Republican primaries starting in January, 2008. Based all that you know or have heard up to now about the people listed below, for which one person would you be most likely to vote? Base: Those who would vote in Republican primary or caucus April May

% % Rudy Giuliani 39 38 John McCain 18 18 Fred Thompson 13 18 Newt Gingrich 9 9 Mitt Romney 14 8 Tommy Thompson 1 2 Tom Tancredo 1 2 Sam Brownback 2 1 Ron Paul 1 1 Duncan Hunter 1 1 Mike Huckabee 1 1 Jim Gilmore * 1 Chuck Hagel * 1 *Less than 0.5%

The Harris Poll ® #39, May 15, 2007 By Humphrey Taylor, chairman of The Harris Poll ®, Harris Interactive. Methodology This Harris Poll ® was conducted online within the United States between May 3 and 10, 2007 among 2,523 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

J30279A (May) Q 492, 2036

About Harris Interactive Harris Interactive is the 12th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world. The company provides innovative research, insights and strategic advice to help its clients make more confident decisions which lead to measurable and enduring improvements in performance. Harris Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of the longest running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online market research methods. The company has built what it believes to be the world’s largest panel of survey respondents, the Harris Poll Online. Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiaries Novatris in and MediaTransfer AG in Germany, and through a global network of independent market research firms. More information about Harris Interactive may be obtained at www.harrisinteractive.com . To become a member of the Harris Poll Online and be invited to participate in online surveys, register at www.harrispollonline.com

Press Contact: Tracey McNerney Harris Interactive 585-214-7756

Harris Interactive Inc. 05/07

The Harris Poll ® #39, May 15, 2007 By Humphrey Taylor, chairman of The Harris Poll ®, Harris Interactive.