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02 CFP Sabato Ch2.Indd Sabato Highlights✰✰✰ 2 ✰The 2000 Republican ✰✰ ✰Presidential Primary Virginia Finally Matters in Presidential Nominating Politics Overall ☑ The 2000 Republican presidential primary was only the second held in a cen- tury in Virginia (the fi rst being 1988), and it was the fi rst where delegates were actually allocated for the national nominating convention. ☑ Thanks to the strong support of Governor Jim Gilmore and others, Texas Governor George W. Bush won by almost nine percentage points, 52.8 percent to 43.9 percent for Arizona U.S. Senator John McCain. The Virginia victory was a critical step in Bush turning back McCain’s fi erce challenge for the GOP presidential nod. ☑ In part because of Governor Gilmore’s role in the February 29, 2000 primary, President- elect Bush named Gilmore the Republican National Committee chairman aft er the November election. Republican Presidential Primary Election Results ☑ Bush built his Virginia majority in the conservative areas of the state, leaving McCain to garner wins only in moderate Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, where the retired military population appeared to back him. ☑ Though modest in overall size, the Bush majority was broadly based, including 88 of 95 counties and 29 of 39 cities. ☑ Bush was the choice of nearly seven of 10 Republicans, while McCain attracted 87 percent of the Democrats and 64 percent of the Independents voting in Virginia’s “open primary” (open to any registered voter, essentially). Luckily for Bush, the electorate was heavily GOP (63 percent), compared to 29 percent Independent and only eight percent Democratic. Voter Breakdowns ☑ McCain and Bush split male voters about equally, while women tilted heavily to Bush, 57 percent to 41 percent for McCain. 19 ☑ The GOP primary was almost entirely white (95 percent). Among the tiny group of African Americans who voted, McCain defeated Bush by 58 percent to 31 percent. ☑ Bush support was strongest with the over- 60 age group, which voted heavily; McCain did best with the lightly- voting under- 30 youth group. ☑ Among income and education classifi cations, McCain won only those who make $100,000 and up; studies have shown that those voters are most likely to have a moderate- liberal ideology within the GOP. ☑ Bush swamped McCain by 80 percent to 14 percent among the so- called “re- ligious right”, while McCain captured the non- religious right by 52 percent to 45 percent. ☑ The rural areas voted heavily for Bush, and the suburbs backed the eventual president by close to his statewide margin. McCain won only the Democratic central cities. U.S. House of Representatives—Nominations ☑ Seven of the 11 seats drew candidates from both parties, about average for modern times, but a big improvement over 1998, when there were just four contested U.S. House seats in November. ☑ Three House retirements in the 1st, 2nd, and 7th districts produced intense competition. The 1st district generated a tight multi- candidate primary, with the winner, Delegate Jo Ann Davis, gaining the GOP nomination with only 35.2 percent of the votes. The 7th district had an even closer Republican pri- mary, with Delegate Eric Cantor securing the dominant party’s nod by a mere 263 votes out of 41,541 cast. 20 Virginia Votes ✰ 1999–2002 ✰✰✰ 2 ✰The 2000 Republican ✰✰ ✰Presidential Primary Virginia Finally Matters in Presidential Nominating Politics n 2000, Virginia held only its second Republican primary in a century, the fi rst I being in 1988. However, the diff erences between the two primaries could not be greater. The 1988 primary had served a merely advisory role in the nominating pro- cess, not binding delegates to the winner. In addition, by the time the 1988 primary was held, the GOP nominee was expected to be Vice President George H.W. Bush. The 2000 GOP primary, by contrast, was held early in the year on February 29, 2000. Virginia joined other states in participating in the unprecedented frontload- ing of the nomination process. The reason for doing so was identical to that of other states—to have a voice in the process before the decision was actually made on the presidential nominee. Virginia’s gamble paid off . The state was in an advantageous po- sition on the primary schedule. The only contests that had preceded it were Iowa, New Hampshire, Delaware, and South Carolina. New Hampshire had provided Arizona Senator John McCain with tremendous momentum aft er he defeated Texas Governor George W. Bush by 19 points. As a result, the South Carolina primary that followed proved critical for Governor Bush. Bush’s solid victory there served as the fi rst real slowing of Senator McCain’s campaign, although it was not a complete knockout. Virginia closely followed South Carolina. Bush’s victory in Virginia helped to fi nish off McCain. Bush still faced some bumps in the road following Virginia, especially in Michigan where McCain won handily over Bush in an upset. Yet, the Virginia victory delivered by Governor Jim Gilmore and his well- oiled state organiza- tion eff ectively guaranteed that Bush would capture the nomination eventually. Bush would not forget Gilmore’s services, and for the fi rst year of the Bush administration, Gilmore was Bush’s pick to head the Republican National Committee. TABLE 2.01 Primary Election Results, Republican Election Results Presidential Primary in Virginia, 2000 Total Number Percent Virtually the entire GOP establishment, from the grassroots ground troops to the Candidate of Votes of Votes elected Republican governor and U.S. Senator, endorsed and campaigned for George George W. Bush 350,588 52.8 W. Bush in Virginia. Considering this, one might have expected an overwhelming John McCain 291,488 43.9 victory for the Texan in a Virginia Republican primary. Bush did win handily, but Alan L. Keyes 20,356 3.1 the margin was somewhat unimpressive: 350,588 votes (52.8 percent) for Bush to Gary Bauer 852 — Steve Forbes 809 — 291,488 (43.9 percent) for McCain. (As Table 2.01 shows, Alan Keyes received Uncommitted 2,272 0.2 20,356 votes, or 3.1 percent, with a scattering of votes for others or uncommitted.) Total 666,365 100.0 McCain was riding a wave of media attention into Virginia, and the glow from his SOURCE: Offi cial results from the State Board of Elections. landslide New Hampshire victory had not completely faded. With Virginia’s essen- NOTE: Gary Bauer and Steve Forbes dropped out of the race tially open primary, some Democrats and Independents unquestionably participated, prior to the primary date, but still appeared on the ballot. 21 and an exit poll indicated they favored McCain by a wide margin, just as they were doing all over the nation. It is fair to say that the phalanx of Old Dominion GOP leaders had to work very hard just to produce a respectable margin of victory for Bush—and they were greatly relieved that they had not presided over an upset that would have proven disastrous for their own futures. Bush and his supporters assembled a Virginia victory in the more conservative parts of Virginia, including the Piedmont, the Valley, the Southwest, and Southside (where Bush’s pro- tobacco stance helped immeasurably). Eight of the 11 congressio- nal districts fell into the Bush column, with the 4th, 5th, 7th, and 9th leading the way (see Table 2.02). McCain won three districts with healthy margins: the two purely Northern Virginia 8th and 11th (where Republicans tend to be much more moder- ate than in the rest of the state), and also in the 2nd district in Hampton Roads. A large retired and active military population in Norfolk and Virginia Beach might have aided McCain there. Interestingly, McCain chose Virginia Beach to make his fi nal campaign swing right before primary day, and he launched an attack on the Beach’s own Pat Robertson, a nationally- known televangelist. The Arizona senator also lashed out at Governor Jim Gilmore and Senator John Warner during that stop. Voter turnout varied widely in the congressional districts, from a low of 9.7 percent in the Southwest 9th to a high of 21.7 percent in the Northern Virginia 8th. Statewide, 17.3 percent of the registered population cast a ballot. As Table 2.03 TABLE 2.02 Results in Virginia, by Congressional District, 2000 Republican Primary Election of President District Total Votes Cast Percent of Registered Voting Bush McCain Keyes Uncommitted 1 73,512 19.1 51.1 45.1 3.6 0.6 2 55,118 18.8 42.9 54.0 2.9 0.6 3 28,041 10.0 51.2 45.0 3.4 0.7 4 46,692 13.4 58.9 37.5 3.3 0.6 5 46,413 13.8 65.0 32.4 2.4 0.1 6 53,043 16.4 62.2 34.0 3.3 0.2 7 87,429 20.9 62.0 35.3 2.5 0.4 8 78,756 21.7 41.3 56.0 2.4 0.2 9 31,365 9.7 64.8 32.0 2.9 0.3 10 91,568 21.1 50.2 45.8 3.8 0.2 11 74,428 21.3 43.7 53.1 3.0 0.0 Statewide 666,365 17.3 52.8 43.9 3.1 0.3 SOURCE: Offi cial results from the State Board of Elections. TABLE 2.03 Voter Participation in Primary Elections in Virginia, 1969–2000 Potential Voting Total Registered Primary for Total Votes Votes Cast as Percentage Votes Cast as Percentage Year Population Population Offi ce/Party Cast of Potential Vote of Registered Vote 1969 2,738,800 1,732,822 Governor–D only 433,613a 15.8 25 1970 2,823,000 1,792,115 U.S.
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