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Voting, Parties and Social Change in Finland

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Voting, Parties and Social Change in Finland Tilastokeskus Tutkimuksia 187 Statistikcentralen Research Papers Statistics Finland Voting, parties and social change in Finland Tuomo Martikainen - Risto Yrjönen Tilastokeskus iJfp Tutkimuksia 187 Statistikcentralen Research Papers Central Statistical Office of Finland Voting, parties and social change in Finland Tuomo Martikainen - Risto Yrjönen October 1991 Helsinki 1991 Helsinki 1991 Printed by HAKAPAINO OY Preface The citizens in a representative democracy support and structural changes in society play a fairly passive role, being required analysed at the level of individual local simply to show either their approval or their government districts. disapproval of the political administration at regular intervals. Trends which have taken Particular thanks are also due to a number place during the last couple of decades have of other persons who contributed to this indicated that even this minor role is be­ research. Lauri Tarkkonen read the section coming a privilege exercised by an ever- concerning the use and interpretation of decreasing number of people and that a logit models, while Pekka Martikainen was growing proportion of the public are turning responsible for the practical implementation their backs on politics. of the models. Liisa Kanerva and Harri Vuorenmaa from Statistics Finland pro­ The weakening of political engagement and cessed the basic material for use in the loss of interest in politics are of course investigation, and Liisa Kotilainen was problematic, as they allow the political elite responsible for lay-out and editing. The and political decisions to escape from public manuscript was translated into English by guidance and control. On the other hand, Antti Rönkkö and Malcolm Hicks. passivity and abstention constitute a factor which may play an important role in A research group consisting of Erkki Pentin­ practical politics and the balance of power mäki, Lauri Yli-Pekka, Risto Heinonen and between the parties. Risto Lättilä from Statistics Finland con­ tributed to the compilation and processing This investigation carried out by Professor of the data on voting activity, and Eeva Tuomo Martikainen and Risto Yijdnen, Heinonen was responsible for acquiring the Lic.Soc.Sc., jointly with Statistics Finland data. (formerly, the Central Statistical Office of Finland) adopts a critical approach to such The current work continues the authors’ basic questions for a representative democ­ earlier research in this field. Statistics racy, i.e. voting and the resulting changes in Finland published an earlier investigation by the balance of political power in Finland. Tuomo Martikainen in 1988, which dis­ Statistics Finland wish to extend their thanks cusses voting activity at the parliamentary to the authors for their fruitful cooperation. election of 1987 based on a material com­ prising a total of 2.2 million voters, whereas The investigation is based on material pro­ the present investigation involves practically vided by Statistics Finland, in which census all those entitled to vote in Finland. data from 1985 were combined with data on voting taken from the registers of the parlia­ mentary election of 1987. The material also Helsinki, October 1991 contains long-term research data on party Olavi E. Niitamo Risto Lättilä Statistics Finland 1^! 3 Contents Page Preface ........................................................................................................................ 3 Contents ......... 4 List of tables................................................................................................................ 5 List of figures .............................................................................................................. 7 I Introduction........................................................................................................... 9 II Social background to voting activity ...................................................................... 17 1. International comparisons................................................................................. 18 2. Historical features............................................................................................ 22 Formation stage of voting ............................................................................ 24 Period of stabilization ................................................................................. 24 Period of declining voting activity: disengagement from politics .................... 25 3. General picture of voting activity and its changes in 1979-1987 ........................ 27 4. Class and professional background to voting activity.......................................... 31 Position of the individual in the labour market............................................... 32 Occupational differences in voting ............................................................... 33 Socioeconomic position and voting............................................................. 34 Specification of ‘class factors’ ...................................................................... 36 5. Education and voting ....................................................................................... 38 6. Material welfare and voting activity ................................................................. 42 Property and voting activity.......................................................................... 47 7. Unemployment, marital status and language as background factors in voting activity.............................................................................................. 48 Unemployment and voting............................................................................ 48 Voting as a social rite................................................................................... 50 Voting activity of the linguistic minority ...................................................... 52 III Party support and social changes ............................................................................ 55 1. Pressures of change on party support ............................................................... 55 2. General features of changes in party support .................................................... 65 Regional distribution of party support............................ 70 3. Social basis of changes in party support............................................................ 75 4. Main features of changes in party support ........................................................ 81 IV Features of voting in Helsinki................................................................................. 87 V Results and conclusions.......................................................................................... 93 VI Material and methods ............................................................................................ 97 On the use of Logit models................................................................................. 97 Material ...................................... 98 Appendix...................................................................................................................... 101 References.................................................................................................................... 103 4 Statistics Finland List of tables Page II Social background to voting activity Table 1: Voting activity at parliamentary elections in some OECD countries: average percentage turnout between 1945 and 1989 ...................................................... 19 Table 2: Voting activity (%) at parliamentary elections in West Germany and Sweden and presidential elections in the United States by selected age groups ...................... 19 Table 3: Voting activity (%) in the Swedish parliamentary election of 1988 by selected background factors ........................................................................................ 20 Table 4: Voting activity (%) in Finland in 1968-1982 by age and sex ........................... 25 Table 5: Voting activity (%) by age and sex at the parliamentary elections of 1979 and 1987, together with the number of non-voters in 1987 (rounded figures) ........... 27 Table 6: Voting activity (%) of the most passive and most active age groups in each electoral district by sex...................................................................... 29 Table 7: Voting activity (%) by age and place of residence ........................................... 30 Table 8: Effect of selected background factors on voting. Voting percentages and coefficients for bivariate and multivariate logit models (odds ratios): entire material............................................................................................... 30 Table 9: Voting activity among the employed and unemployed population and students (%), by electoral districts ............................................................................... 33 Table 10: Voting activity (%) by field of activity and age ............................................... 34 Table 11: Voting activity (%) by socioeconomic status, sizes of socioeconomic groups and numbers (rounded) of non-voters..................................................................... 34 Table 12: Voting activity (%) by socioeconomic status and field of activity...................... 35 Table 13: Voting activity (%) by age and socioeconomic status: employed population ..................................................................................................... 36 Table 14: Effect
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