WARC GUIDE © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved. WARC GUIDE Lessons from previous recessions As COVID-19 triggers a And because it is driven by a deep economic downturn, pandemic, rather than an marketers around the world economic event, the impact is are faced with some tough felt in supply as well as strategic choices. demand – in short, many Why this recession is different, brands are unable to service why the standard advice to The lessons from previous any demand their marketing ‘keep advertising’ may not apply, recessions are clear – that the might stimulate. and how brands are responding most effective approach is to maintain investment, build your This WARC Guide pulls brand and reap the reward in together the best thinking How to plan past the lockdown recovery. from across the industry on into recession navigating the post-lockdown That may be the case for some period. brands this time round. But it’s The shape of recovery so far increasingly clear that for It presents marketers with many others, the advice is relevant frameworks and academic. Maintaining spend actionable ideas based on the Emerging trends brands can is not an option. The recession position of their brand – and act on as the recession unfolds is so sharp that major budget offers examples of how major cuts are inevitable for brands marketers are already putting in a host of hard-hit sectors. plans into practice. © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved. WARC GUIDE 1: The pandemic has caused 4: The most challenged 7: The shift to e-commerce a demand and supply shock sectors might come back by is likely to be permanent. – brands in many sectors no advertising like a start-up, ‘Digital transformation’, such longer have a product to with a focus on activation as online services and advertise, and cannot meet spend in the initial stages. subscriptions, will continue the ‘classic’ recessionary apace. Brands will also need advice to keep spending. 5: Brands will need to review to reckon with more powerful what worked in the lockdown online marketplaces. 2: Media spend and costs and develop a clear have fallen sharply across playbook for future 8: Pack size is a key lever all channels as many outbreaks. to consider. Brands such categories turn off adspend. as Procter & Gamble and Companies in sectors like 6: The early signs from China Hershey are reassessing FMCG, however, are not are that the recovery will be pack size as they seek to cutting back as their sales tentative, with a significant avoid pure discounting. hold firm. ‘normalization’ period. Brands require flexibility in 9: Other brands can find 3: Brands that have to ‘go terms of media outlay, and opportunities in a ‘close-to- dark’ should use other should consider how home’ strategy, or by taking levers to maintain visibility, packaging, delivery and steps to support struggling such as first-party data, service can reassure consumers or SMEs. © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved. customer experience and PR. customers. WARC GUIDE — Invest in advertising, if — Ensure creative work — Look for opportunities to you can. Media costs strikes the right tone for use your channels at key are lower, and there’s each stage of the seasonal selling points – less noise from recovery – but don’t brands in many sectors competitive brands. assume your client needs will focus spend on Firms that have to ‘go specific ads in response moments like Halloween, dark’ can pull other to the crisis. and will be working out marketing levers to how to make these remain visible. — Help brands in the most moments work at a time challenged sectors stay of social distancing. — Look beyond visible to existing communications; pack customers – there is a big — Double down on size, pricing and role for creative thinking measurement and data distribution online will all in making small budgets capabilities, as proving be important in this go further. the effectiveness of a recession. channel to advertisers is — E-commerce players are going to be even more — Fast-track digital growing in power as ad important in a recession. transformation to cater platforms. Agencies to the needs of the should understand how online consumer. CMOs to build brands in these have a real opportunity ‘walled gardens’. to lead this process. © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved. IMAGE © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved. WARC GUIDE Tony Hillier and Marilyn Baxter © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved. WARC GUIDE A significant body of research studies – drawn together over the course of almost a century – suggest that significantly reducing adspend in a recession has negative outcomes for brands. Various studies indicate that cutting too hard has long-term impact in terms of sales, market share, growth and return on investment. Companies that maintain investment recover more quickly. WARC GUIDE Less demand for advertising means lower costs to reach audiences, and less noise from competitive advertising. Thus, firms that maintain advertising get more value from their investment. Data from ECI Media Management predicts sharp falls in media costs in 2020, despite increased audiences for channels such as television. That means brands that still want to advertise are getting good deals. WARC GUIDE Cutting ad spend carries the risk of damaging a brand’s market share. Reducing a brand’s share of voice (its proportion of adspend within its category) below its share of market can undermine its position. As such, if a brand cuts its advertising budget relative to its competitors, it is at higher risk of losing market share. The level of risk has been observed to be greater in price-driven and low- interest categories. WARC GUIDE A series of classic studies at the macro level by the Strategic Planning Institute (SPI) using the PIMS database shed light on different expenditure strategies during recession. SPI concluded that those who increase spending significantly in recession may have to absorb a drop in ROI in the short run – but gain share and improve profit in the long run. WARC GUIDE Millward Brown (now Kantar) gives the example of a brand that came off-air in one region (B) but continued advertising in another (A). Within a year, market share fell 2% in region B while holding steady in region A. The next year, when advertising was resumed in both regions, market share in region B continued to lag. The ARF showed it is more challenging to regain brand equity and share lost by going dark than it is to maintain them with even modest investment. WARC GUIDE Data from Millward Brown (now Kantar) show a strong correlation between a brand’s adspend and its level of ‘bonding’ with consumers. Key bonding metrics – popularity, affinity, leadership, difference and price – can all suffer when brands go dark. ‘Going dark’ means reducing communications spending on television to zero for at least six months. © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved. WARC GUIDE Les Binet © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved. WARC GUIDE The COVID-19 recession is the first pandemic-driven downturn of the modern era. It is a healthcare crisis, leading to a severe economic slump. That also makes the shape of the recovery hard to predict, as consequences of the lockdown become apparent and there is risk of further outbreaks. Sir Martin Sorrell predicts a “reverse square root” recession – a sharp downturn, a partial bounceback then a plateau. WARC GUIDE 73% of brands expect to see Additional research shows this no sales growth this year due drop will be larger in the first to the pandemic. This is half of the year. according to an Ebiquity survey of global brands with Digital search in this survey over $15bn in media spend remains strong, with one-third and around $200bn in sales. (32%) of brands increasing investment and just one- The survey found four-fifths quarter (25%) cutting spend. (81%) of brands have cut their ad investment this year. Digital ‘other’, including programmatic online video and Unsurprisingly the media most display, sees a split – 40% will hit by widespread lockdowns decrease and another 40% will are: increase spend here. • Out of home (73% cuts) • © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved. Cinema (72% cuts) WARC GUIDE The COVID-19 outbreak will wipe more than £4bn from the total for the current year, according to the latest Advertising Association/WARC Expenditure Report. The impact is felt across all digital channels as well as traditional. These channels tend to be easy to ‘switch off’. It is also the case that companies such as Facebook and Google rely on small- and medium-sized businesses for a significant chunk of revenue. These have been particularly hard hit during the pandemic. WARC GUIDE The 2020 downturn is set to This begs the question, should be a demand and supply-side a brand maintain advertising if shock, caused first by it has little or no product lockdown and then by critical availability? Commentators value chain components such as Sir Martin Sorrell breaking down, particularly in argue this is poor practice. China, leading to disruption in product and service delivery. Gartner advises brands to be transparent about the supply This matters because a brand’s chain and product availability response may be determined to build trust with consumers, by whether it is more exposed and avoid an unsatisfactory to a drop in demand or a brand experience. problem in supply. Brandgym advises brands to explore strategies to address not just demand but supply as well. © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved. WARC GUIDE Sir Martin Sorrell © Copyright WARC 2020. All rights reserved. WARC GUIDE In a survey of 17 markets at the end of April, 83% of consumers say they have delayed a purchase because of the outbreak.