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Population and Public Policy: Essays in Honor of Paul Demeny Geoffrey McNicoll John Bongaarts Ethel P. Churchill Editors Population and Public Policy: Essays in Honor of Paul Demeny A Supplement to Vol. 38, 2012 POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW Population and Development Review seeks to advance knowledge of the relationships between population and social, economic, and environmental change and provides a forum for discussion of related issues of public policy. EDITORS Paul Demeny Geoffrey McNicoll MANAGING EDITOR Ethel P. Churchill EDITORIAL COMMITTEE Paul Demeny, Chair Ethel P. Churchill John Bongaarts Dennis Hodgson John Casterline Geoffrey McNicoll EDITORIAL STAFF Robert Heidel, Production Editor Mike Vosika, Production/Design Sura Rosenthal, Production ADVISORY BOARD Alaka Basu S. Ryan Johansson Xizhe Peng John C. Caldwell Ronald D. Lee Samuel H. Preston David Coleman Massimo Livi Bacci Vaclav Smil Richard A. Easterlin Wolfgang Lutz Dirk van de Kaa Susan Greenhalgh Akin L. Mabogunje James Vaupel Charlotte Höhn Carmen A. Miró Disclaimer The Publisher, the Population Council, and Editors cannot be held responsible for errors or any consequences arising from the use of information contained in this journal; the views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the Publisher, the Population Council, and Editors. Direct manuscripts, comments on articles, and correspondence to: Population and Development Review Population Council One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza New York, New York 10017 USA Electronic submissions are encouraged and should be sent to [email protected] Support from the United Nations Population Fund is gratefully acknowledged. This journal is printed on acid-free paper. Volumes are available on microfilm from UMI, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106. The full contents of volumes 1–36 (1975–2010) are available through participating libraries from JSTOR at www.jstor.org/journals/00987921.html Population and Development Review (ISSN 0098-7921 [print]; 1728-4457 [online]) is published quarterly on behalf of the Population Council by Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., a Wiley Company, 111 River St., Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774. POSTMASTER: Send all address changes to Population and Development Review, Journal Customer Services, John Wiley & Sons Inc., 350 Main St., Malden, MA 02148-5020. Population and Development Review is available online at Wiley Online Library. Visit http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com to search the articles and register for table of contents e-mail alerts. POPULATION AND PUBLIC POLICY: ESSAYS IN HONOR OF PAUL DEMENY population AND PUBLIC POLICY: ESSAYS IN HONOR OF PAUL DEMENY Geoffrey McNicoll John Bongaarts Ethel P. Churchill Editors POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW A Supplement to Volume 38, 2012 POPULATION COUNCIL New York ©2013 The Population Council, Inc. All rights reserved. With the exception of fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored, or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission in writing from the copyright holder. Authorization to photocopy items for internal and personal use is granted by the copyright holder for libraries and other users of the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA (www.copyright.com), provided the appropriate fee is paid directly to the CCC. This consent does not extend to other kinds of copying, such as copying for general distribution, for advertising or promotional purposes, for creating new collective works, or for resale. Institutions with a paid subscription to this journal may make photocopies for teaching purposes free of charge provided such copies are not resold. Special requests should be addressed to: [email protected]. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Population and public policy : essays in honor of Paul Demeny / Geoffrey McNicoll, John Bongaarts, Ethel P. Churchill, editors. -- First Edition. pages cm. -- (Population and development review, ISSN 0098-7921 ; 38) “Population and development review, a supplement to volume 38, 2012.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-87834-128-3 (alk. paper) 1. Population policy. 2. Demographic transition. 3. Technological innovations--Environmental aspects. I. McNicoll, Geoffrey. HB883.5.P646 2013 363.9--dc23 2012050208 ISSN 0098-7921 ISBN 978-0-87834-128-3 Printed in the United States of America. CONTENTS Preface ix INTRODUCTION Reflections on Post-Transition Demography 3 GEOFFREY MCNICOLL INTERGENERATIONAL RELATIONS Intergenerational Transfers, the Biological Life Cycle, and Human Society 23 RONALD LEE The Intergenerational Welfare State 36 NANCY FOLBRE DOUGLAS WOLF LOW FERTILITY, POPULATION AGING, AND THE BODY POLITIC Why Demographic Suicide? The Puzzles of European Fertility 55 LANT PRITCHETT MARTINA VIARENGO Low Fertility in Historical Perspective 72 MASSIMO LIVI BACCI On Demographic and Democratic Transitions 83 TIM DYSON A Demographic Perspective on Japan’s “Lost Decades” 103 REIKO AOKI POLICY AND PROGRAM: CHINA Population, Policy, and Politics: How Will History Judge China’s One-Child Policy? 115 WANG FENG YONG CAI BAOCHANG GU Patriarchal Demographics? China’s Sex Ratio Reconsidered 130 SUSAN GREENHALGH POLICY AND PROGRAM: AFRICA Fertility Transition: Is sub-Saharan Africa Different? 153 JOHN BONGAARTS JOHN CASTERLINE The Recent Fertility Transition in Rwanda 169 CHARLES F. WESTOFF Fertility and Population Policy in Algeria: Discrepancies between Planning and Outcomes 179 ZAHIA OUADAH-BEDIDI JACQUES VALLIN Working Misunderstandings: Donors, Brokers, and Villagers in Africa’s AIDS Industry 197 SUSAN COTTS WATKINS ANN SWIDLER ENVIRONMENT, TECHNOLOGY, AND WEAltH Peak Farmland and the Prospect for Land Sparing 221 JESSE H. AUSUBEL IDDO K. WERNICK PAUL E. WAGGONER National Wealth 243 PARTHA DASGUPTA The Last Eighty Years: Continuities and Change 265 VACLAV SMIL POPULATION THEORY AND MEASUREMENT Demographic Metabolism: A Predictive Theory of Socioeconomic Change 283 WOLFGANG LUTZ Cross-Sections Are History 302 RICHARD A. EASTERLIN Population Change among the Elderly: International Patterns 309 ANDREW STOKES SAMUEL H. PRESTON The French School of Demography: Contextualizing Demographic Analysis 322 VÉRONIQUE PETIT YVES CHARBIT The Twilight of the Census 334 DAVID COLEMAN SELECTED PUBLICATIONS OF PAUL DEMENY 353 AUTHORS 359 PREFACE Paul Demeny, founding editor of Population and Development Review, relinquishes his editorship with Volume 38 in 2012. This collection of essays marks the occa- sion and, in the year he turns 80, celebrates his scholarly career. PDR’s main interests lie in the relationships between population and social, economic, and environmental change, and related issues of public policy. The journal from its inception has sought to extend the conventional boundaries of population studies and to avoid disciplinary constrictions. It encompasses prob- lems of low- as much as high-fertility regimes, environmental futures, popula- tion and geopolitics, population history, and the history of population thought. And it endeavors to be accessible to a broad range of readers in the social sciences and public affairs. In accord with this last aim, PDR has always welcomed con- tributions written as essays—a time-honored and distinguished genre unduly neglected in standard-order academic articles in many journals. The 21 essays assembled here were selected from a larger number con- sidered. Each on its merits could have found its way into a regular issue of the journal (all underwent its standard process of peer review). While each is a free- standing contribution, a loose thematic link is offered by the volume’s title and subtitle: population and public policy, and the wide-ranging scholarly interests of Paul Demeny. The collection begins with three essays, by Geoffrey McNicoll, Ronald Lee, and Nancy Folbre and Douglas Wolf, on aspects of population renewal and the management of intergenerational relations. McNicoll discusses the various ingredients of generational succession and their bearing on the societal future. How the fundamental continuity problems facing every society have been dealt with over the course of human history makes an intriguing story, set out by Lee. Its culmination in the sustainability issues confronting the modern welfare state is the subject of Folbre and Wolf. The transition to low-mortality, low-fertility regimes is a staple of popula- tion research, whether as an expected and welcome part of social, economic, and even political development or, in many countries, as an object of explicit policy intervention. Low fertility and its various consequences are explored in four contributions. Lant Pritchett and Martina Viarengo consider the puzzles for theorists presented by ultra-low fertility and natural population decrease. Mas- simo Livi Bacci offers an historical perspective on the subject. Tim Dyson points to evidence of the relationship between the demographic transition and the process of democratization. And Reiko Aoki sketches the intractable problems for social policy in Japan created by that country’s low fertility and the extreme population aging it is giving rise to. The role of public policy in lowering high fertility, an often controversial matter, receives particular attention. The cases considered are those of China and ix ©2013 The Population Council, Inc. x P REFACE various African countries. In the former, government intervention has achieved unprecedented success of a kind, but attained at high human cost and with unin-
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