11:00–12:30 09:00–10:30 10:30–11:00 ENSA,0 DECEMBER 2016 WEDNESDAY, 07 12:30 COFFEE BREAK Raya Closing change research Wolfgang Lutzandalongwalktopopulationglobalenvironmental Population growth,urbanizationandfuturewildfirerisks and ShanghaiUniversity Leiwen Jiang|NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch(NCAR) Population andclimatechangerevisited Brian O’Neill|NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch(NCAR) Chair: AnneGoujon,WittgensteinCentre Session: Population,DevelopmentandEnvironment Reflections oninternationalmigrationforecasting Institute (NIDI) Frans Willekens|NetherlandsInterdisciplinaryDemographic demographic projections Cooperations betweenStatisticsAustriaandVIDinthefieldof Alexander Hanika|StatisticsAustria Probabilistic demographicprojections Nico Keilman|UniversityofOslo Chair: DalkhatEdiev,WittgensteinCentre Session: (Probabilistic)Projections Muttarak | Wittgenstein Centre (UiO) Century Studies. WU. HeisalsoProfessorialResearchFellowattheOxford MartinSchoolfor21 Director ofVIDandsince2008,FullProfessorApplied Statistics (parttime)at Program DirectoroftheWorldPopulation(POP)Program. Since2002heisalso and GlobalHumanCapital.HejoinedIIASAinOctober1985, whereheis Wolfgang LutzisFoundingDirectoroftheWittgenstein CentreforDemography relevance toaglobalaudience. well-being, wecombinescientificexcellenceinamultidisciplinary contextwith population dynamics.Inassessingtheeffectsoftheseforces onlong-termhuman demographic methodsandtheirapplicationtotheanalysisofhumancapital The WittgensteinCentreaspirestobeaworldleaderintheadvancementof guidance areensuredbyitsInternationalScientificAdvisoryBoard. scientific foundationfordecision-makingatvariouslevels.Scientificadviceand cognitive skillsandotherrelevantcharacteristics.Ourintentistoprovideasound ple andtheirchangingstructurebyage,gender,location,education,healthstatus, “Human capital”referstothehumanresourcebaseintermsofnumberpeo- successful collaborationthathasalreadygeneratedsignificantscientificadvances. capital formationandanalysisofthereturnstoeducation.Itbuildsonahighly The Centrecombinesthepartners’strengthsinfieldsofdemography,human collaboration underacommonroof. standing wassignedbythesethreepillarinstitutionsdefiningthetermsforthis Vienna UniversityofEconomicsandBusiness(WU).Inlate2010,aletterunder- Group andtheResearchInstituteonHumanCapitalDevelopmentof Demography oftheAustrianAcademySciences(VID/ÖAW), national InstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA),theViennaof The CentreisacollaborationamongtheWorldPopulationProgramofInter- WOLFGANG LUTZ OUR MISSION THE WITTGENSTEIN CENTRE WWW.WITTGENSTEINCENTRE.ORG st
WWW.OEAW.AC.AT WITTGENSTEIN VARIATIONS ON THE THEMES OF WOLFGANG LUTZ CENTRE CONFERENCE WELTHANDELSPLATZ 1, 1020VIENNA BUILDING LC, CEREMONIAL HALL 1 ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS 2016 VIENNA UNIVERSITY OF 05-07DECEMBER 2016 CAMPUS WU
VID – VIENNA INSTITUTE OF DEMOGRAPHY PROGRAMME
MONDAY, 05 DECEMBER 2016 TUESDAY, 06 DECEMBER 2016
13:00–13:30 Registration 09:00–09:30 Richard Gisser | Wittgenstein Centre 15:30–17:30 Session: Multiregional/Multistate Projections Wolfgang Lutz and Demography of Austria Chair: Sergei Scherbov, Wittgenstein Centre 13:30–14:15 Opening 09:30–11:00 Session: Fertility and Family Dynamics James Raymer | Australian National University (ANU) Anton Zeilinger | Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) Chair: Isabella Buber-Ennser, Wittgenstein Centre Multiregional projections of Australia’s indigenous population Pavel Kabat | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis with identification status change (IIASA) Tomáš Sobotka | Wittgenstein Centre Stefan Pichler | Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) How low can optimal fertility be? Estimates accounting for migration Joel Cohen | The Rockefeller University Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz | Wittgenstein Centre The use of Taylor‘s law to evaluate alternative multiregional Warren Sanderson | Wittgenstein Centre Francesco Billari | University of Oxford population projections ex ante Sergei Scherbov | Wittgenstein Centre A great divergence in fertility? Anne Goujon | Wittgenstein Centre 14:15–15:45 Session: Human Capital Maria Rita Testa and Fabian Stephany | Wittgenstein Centre What haven‘t we projected? Chair: Bilal Barakat, Wittgenstein Centre The ability to meet fertility goals: a cross-country European analysis Aris Ananta and Evi Nurvidya Arifin | University of Indonesia Jesús Crespo Cuaresma | Wittgenstein Centre Age structure transition in Asia Human capital, economic growth and Wolfgang Lutz 11:00–11:30 COFFEE BREAK
Samir KC | Wittgenstein Centre and Shanghai University Population dynamics in light of education 11:30–12:30 Session: Ageing Chair: Michael Kuhn, Wittgenstein Centre Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi | University of Tehran, National Institute of Population Research and Australian National University Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov | Wittgenstein Centre (ANU) What is your age at age 60? Population dynamics and human capital in Moslem countries Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz and Bernhard Hammer | Wittgenstein 15:45–16:15 COFFEE BREAK Centre 16:15–17:15 Marc Luy | Wittgenstein Centre National transfer accounts by education How human capital drives life expectancy: a demographic analysis 12:30–14:00 LUNCH BREAK Phil Rees | University of Leeds Richard Stone and Wolfgang Lutz, 60 years apart: key contributors to 14:00–15:00 Graziella Caselli | Sapienza University the study of education and demography Actuarial fairness and social inequality
17:15–17:45 William Butz | Former President and CEO of the Population Gustav Feichtinger | Wittgenstein Centre Reference Bureau (PRB) in Washington, DC How many old people have ever lived on earth? Are there ‚principles‘ of demography?
20:00 Evening Reception at Vienna City Hall 15:00–15:30 COFFEE BREAK PROGRAMME
MONDAY, 05 DECEMBER 2016 TUESDAY, 06 DECEMBER 2016
13:00–13:30 Registration 09:00–09:30 Richard Gisser | Wittgenstein Centre 15:30–17:30 Session: Multiregional/Multistate Projections Wolfgang Lutz and Demography of Austria Chair: Sergei Scherbov, Wittgenstein Centre 13:30–14:15 Opening 09:30–11:00 Session: Fertility and Family Dynamics James Raymer | Australian National University (ANU) Anton Zeilinger | Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) Chair: Isabella Buber-Ennser, Wittgenstein Centre Multiregional projections of Australia’s indigenous population Pavel Kabat | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis with identification status change (IIASA) Tomáš Sobotka | Wittgenstein Centre Stefan Pichler | Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) How low can optimal fertility be? Estimates accounting for migration Joel Cohen | The Rockefeller University Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz | Wittgenstein Centre The use of Taylor‘s law to evaluate alternative multiregional Warren Sanderson | Wittgenstein Centre Francesco Billari | University of Oxford population projections ex ante Sergei Scherbov | Wittgenstein Centre A great divergence in fertility? Anne Goujon | Wittgenstein Centre 14:15–15:45 Session: Human Capital Maria Rita Testa and Fabian Stephany | Wittgenstein Centre What haven‘t we projected? Chair: Bilal Barakat, Wittgenstein Centre The ability to meet fertility goals: a cross-country European analysis Aris Ananta and Evi Nurvidya Arifin | University of Indonesia Jesús Crespo Cuaresma | Wittgenstein Centre Age structure transition in Asia Human capital, economic growth and Wolfgang Lutz 11:00–11:30 COFFEE BREAK
Samir KC | Wittgenstein Centre and Shanghai University Population dynamics in light of education 11:30–12:30 Session: Ageing Chair: Michael Kuhn, Wittgenstein Centre Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi | Australian National University (ANU) and University of Tehran Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov | Wittgenstein Centre Population dynamics and human capital in Moslem countries What is your age at age 60?
15:45–16:15 COFFEE BREAK Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz and Bernhard Hammer | Wittgenstein Centre 16:15–17:15 Marc Luy | Wittgenstein Centre National transfer accounts by education How human capital drives life expectancy: a demographic analysis 12:30–14:00 LUNCH BREAK Phil Rees | University of Leeds Richard Stone and Wolfgang Lutz, 60 years apart: key contributors to 14:00–15:00 Graziella Caselli | Sapienza University the study of education and demography Actuarial fairness and social inequality
17:15–17:45 William Butz | Former President and CEO of the Population Gustav Feichtinger | Wittgenstein Centre Reference Bureau (PRB) in Washington, DC How many old people have ever lived on earth? Are there ‚principles‘ of demography?
20:00 Evening Reception at Vienna City Hall 15:00–15:30 COFFEE BREAK PROGRAMME
MONDAY, 05 DECEMBER 2016 TUESDAY, 06 DECEMBER 2016
13:00–13:30 Registration 09:00–09:30 Richard Gisser | Wittgenstein Centre 15:30–17:30 Session: Multiregional/Multistate Projections Wolfgang Lutz and Demography of Austria Chair: Sergei Scherbov, Wittgenstein Centre 13:30–14:15 Opening 09:30–11:00 Session: Fertility and Family Dynamics James Raymer | Australian National University (ANU) Anton Zeilinger | Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) Chair: Isabella Buber-Ennser, Wittgenstein Centre Multiregional projections of Australia’s indigenous population Pavel Kabat | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis with identification status change (IIASA) Tomáš Sobotka | Wittgenstein Centre Stefan Pichler | Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) How low can optimal fertility be? Estimates accounting for migration Joel Cohen | The Rockefeller University Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz | Wittgenstein Centre The use of Taylor‘s law to evaluate alternative multiregional Warren Sanderson | Wittgenstein Centre Francesco Billari | University of Oxford population projections ex ante Sergei Scherbov | Wittgenstein Centre A great divergence in fertility? Anne Goujon | Wittgenstein Centre 14:15–15:45 Session: Human Capital Maria Rita Testa and Fabian Stephany | Wittgenstein Centre What haven‘t we projected? Chair: Bilal Barakat, Wittgenstein Centre The ability to meet fertility goals: a cross-country European analysis Aris Ananta and Evi Nurvidya Arifin | University of Indonesia Jesús Crespo Cuaresma | Wittgenstein Centre Age structure transition in Asia Human capital, economic growth and Wolfgang Lutz 11:00–11:30 COFFEE BREAK
Samir KC | Wittgenstein Centre and Shanghai University Population dynamics in light of education 11:30–12:30 Session: Ageing Chair: Michael Kuhn, Wittgenstein Centre Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi | Australian National University (ANU) and University of Tehran Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov | Wittgenstein Centre Population dynamics and human capital in Moslem countries What is your age at age 60?
15:45–16:15 COFFEE BREAK Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz and Bernhard Hammer | Wittgenstein Centre 16:15–17:15 Marc Luy | Wittgenstein Centre National transfer accounts by education How human capital drives life expectancy: a demographic analysis 12:30–14:00 LUNCH BREAK Phil Rees | University of Leeds Richard Stone and Wolfgang Lutz, 60 years apart: key contributors to 14:00–15:00 Graziella Caselli | Sapienza University the study of education and demography Actuarial fairness and social inequality
17:15–17:45 William Butz | Former President and CEO of the Population Gustav Feichtinger | Wittgenstein Centre Reference Bureau (PRB) in Washington, DC How many old people have ever lived on earth? Are there ‚principles‘ of demography?
20:00 Evening Reception at Vienna City Hall 15:00–15:30 COFFEE BREAK Raya 11:00–12:30 10:30–11:00 09:00–10:30 WEDNESDAY, 07DECEMBER 2016 12:30
COFFEE BREAK Closing change research Wolfgang Lutzandalongwalktopopulationglobalenvironmental Population growth,urbanizationandfuturewildfirerisks and ShanghaiUniversity Leiwen Jiang| Population andclimatechangerevisited Brian O’Neill| Chair: AnneGoujon,WittgensteinCentre Session: Population,DevelopmentandEnvironment Reflections oninternationalmigrationforecasting Institute (NIDI) Frans Willekens| demographic projections Cooperations betweenStatisticsAustriaandVIDinthefieldof Alexander Hanika| Probabilistic demographicprojections Nico Keilman| Chair: DalkhatEdiev,WittgensteinCentre Session: (Probabilistic)Projections
Muttarak
| National CenterforAtmosphericResearch(NCAR) UniversityofOslo National CenterforAtmosphericResearch(NCAR)
Wittgenstein Centre Netherlands InterdisciplinaryDemographic StatisticsAustria
(UiO)
Century Studies. WU. HeisalsoProfessorialResearchFellowattheOxford MartinSchoolfor21 Director ofVIDandsince2008,FullProfessorApplied Statistics (parttime)at Program DirectoroftheWorldPopulation(POP)Program. Since2002heisalso and GlobalHumanCapital.HejoinedIIASAinOctober1985, whereheis Wolfgang LutzisFoundingDirectoroftheWittgenstein CentreforDemography relevance toaglobalaudience. well-being, wecombinescientificexcellenceinamultidisciplinary contextwith population dynamics.Inassessingtheeffectsoftheseforces onlong-termhuman demographic methodsandtheirapplicationtotheanalysisofhumancapital The WittgensteinCentreaspirestobeaworldleaderintheadvancementof guidance areensuredbyitsInternationalScientificAdvisoryBoard. scientific foundationfordecision-makingatvariouslevels.Scientificadviceand cognitive skillsandotherrelevantcharacteristics.Ourintentistoprovideasound ple andtheirchangingstructurebyage,gender,location,education,healthstatus, “Human capital”referstothehumanresourcebaseintermsofnumberpeo successful collaborationthathasalreadygeneratedsignificantscientificadvances. capital formationandanalysisofthereturnstoeducation.Itbuildsonahighly The Centrecombinesthepartners’strengthsinfieldsofdemography,human collaboration underacommonroof. standing wassignedbythesethreepillarinstitutionsdefiningthetermsforthis Vienna UniversityofEconomicsandBusiness(WU).Inlate2010,aletterunder Group andtheResearchInstituteonHumanCapitalDevelopmentof Demography oftheAustrianAcademySciences(VID/ÖAW), national InstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA),theViennaof The CentreisacollaborationamongtheWorldPopulationProgramofInter THE WITTGENSTEIN CENTRE WOLFGANG LUTZ OUR MISSION WWW.WITTGENSTEINCENTRE.ORG st -
- -
WWW.OEAW.AC.AT WITTGENSTEIN CONFERENCEWITTGENSTEIN 2016 VARIATIONS ON THE THEMES OF WOLFGANG LUTZ WELTHANDELSPLATZ 1, 1020VIENNA BUILDING LC, CEREMONIAL HALL 1 ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS VIENNA UNIVERSITY OF 05-07DECEMBER 2016 CAMPUS WU
VID – VIENNA INSTITUTE OF DEMOGRAPHY Raya 11:00–12:30 10:30–11:00 09:00–10:30 WEDNESDAY, 07DECEMBER 2016 12:30
COFFEE BREAK Closing change research Wolfgang Lutzandalongwalktopopulationglobalenvironmental Population growth,urbanizationandfuturewildfirerisks and ShanghaiUniversity Leiwen Jiang| Population andclimatechangerevisited Brian O’Neill| Chair: AnneGoujon,WittgensteinCentre Session: Population,DevelopmentandEnvironment Reflections oninternationalmigrationforecasting Institute (NIDI) Frans Willekens| demographic projections Cooperations betweenStatisticsAustriaandVIDinthefieldof Alexander Hanika| Probabilistic demographicprojections Nico Keilman| Chair: DalkhatEdiev,WittgensteinCentre Session: (Probabilistic)Projections
Muttarak
| National CenterforAtmosphericResearch(NCAR) UniversityofOslo National CenterforAtmosphericResearch(NCAR)
Wittgenstein Centre Netherlands InterdisciplinaryDemographic StatisticsAustria
(UiO)
Century Studies. WU. HeisalsoProfessorialResearchFellowattheOxford MartinSchoolfor21 Director ofVIDandsince2008,FullProfessorApplied Statistics (parttime)at Program DirectoroftheWorldPopulation(POP)Program. Since2002heisalso and GlobalHumanCapital.HejoinedIIASAinOctober1985, whereheis Wolfgang LutzisFoundingDirectoroftheWittgenstein CentreforDemography relevance toaglobalaudience. well-being, wecombinescientificexcellenceinamultidisciplinary contextwith population dynamics.Inassessingtheeffectsoftheseforces onlong-termhuman demographic methodsandtheirapplicationtotheanalysisofhumancapital The WittgensteinCentreaspirestobeaworldleaderintheadvancementof guidance areensuredbyitsInternationalScientificAdvisoryBoard. scientific foundationfordecision-makingatvariouslevels.Scientificadviceand cognitive skillsandotherrelevantcharacteristics.Ourintentistoprovideasound ple andtheirchangingstructurebyage,gender,location,education,healthstatus, “Human capital”referstothehumanresourcebaseintermsofnumberpeo successful collaborationthathasalreadygeneratedsignificantscientificadvances. capital formationandanalysisofthereturnstoeducation.Itbuildsonahighly The Centrecombinesthepartners’strengthsinfieldsofdemography,human collaboration underacommonroof. standing wassignedbythesethreepillarinstitutionsdefiningthetermsforthis Vienna UniversityofEconomicsandBusiness(WU).Inlate2010,aletterunder Group andtheResearchInstituteonHumanCapitalDevelopmentof Demography oftheAustrianAcademySciences(VID/ÖAW), national InstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA),theViennaof The CentreisacollaborationamongtheWorldPopulationProgramofInter THE WITTGENSTEIN CENTRE WOLFGANG LUTZ OUR MISSION WWW.WITTGENSTEINCENTRE.ORG st -
- -
WWW.OEAW.AC.AT WITTGENSTEIN CONFERENCEWITTGENSTEIN 2016 VARIATIONS ON THE THEMES OF WOLFGANG LUTZ WELTHANDELSPLATZ 1, 1020VIENNA BUILDING LC, CEREMONIAL HALL 1 ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS VIENNA UNIVERSITY OF 05-07DECEMBER 2016 CAMPUS WU
VID – VIENNA INSTITUTE OF DEMOGRAPHY