Georgia Conflict Assessment Submitted to: Cate Johnson USAID USAID/Tbilisi The US Agency for International Development Submitted by: ARD, Inc. 159 Bank Street, Ste. 300 Burlington, Vermont 05401 telephone: (802) 658-3890 fax: (802) 658-4247 e-mail:
[email protected] Work Conducted under Task Order No. 808 USAID Contract No. AEP-I-00-99-00041-00 General Democracy and Governance Analytical Support and Implementation Services Indefinite Quantity Contract CTO for the basic contract: Joshua Kaufman Center for Democracy and Governance, G/DG Bureau for Global Programs, Field Support, and Research U.S. Agency for International Development Washington, DC 20523-3100 23 January 2002 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared by Lawrence Robertson, EE/PCS (Team Leader); Ann Phillips, PPC/PDC; Bruce Kay, DCHA/DG; and William B. Farrell, ARD, Inc. The views expressed in the following assessment are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of the U.S. Government. Georgia Conflict Assessment This document does not reflect official USG policy. TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary i I. Introduction 1 A. Overview 1 B. Historical Background 2 C. Current Political Context 3 II. USAID Framework for Conflict Analysis 4 A. Conflict Definitions 4 B. Conflict Analysis Framework 5 C. Conflict Correlates and Georgia 6 D. Applying the Framework to Georgia 8 III. Analysis: Potential for Conflict and Prevention/Mitigation/Reconciliation 10 A. Root Causes: Grievances and Opportunities 10 B. Organizations and Actors 13 1. Internal Actors 13 2. External Actors 16 C. State Capacity 18 IV. Scenarios and Case Studies: Potential for Further Violence 23 Scenario 1: Violent Change in Government 24 Post-Shevardnadze Succession 24 Use of Violence as Electoral Strategy 26 Military Coup 28 Militia Violence 29 Scenario 2: Resumption of “Frozen” Separatist Conflicts 31 Abkhazia 31 South Ossetia 34 Georgia Conflict Assessment This document does not reflect official USG policy.