June 2013 Brics and Mortar CONTENTS Ccording to the Latest Update to the IMF's World Economic Aoutlook in April the Two Speed Global Economy Is Fragmenting a Little
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Aviation Strategy Issue No: 187/8 May/June 2013 BRICs and mortar CONTENTS ccording to the latest update to the IMF's World Economic AOutlook in April the two speed global economy is fragmenting a little. The august establishment suggests that there are real signs of recovery developing in the US (despite or even in spite of “sequestra - Analysis tion”), while the developing economies continue to provide the major engine of world economic growth, albeit at a slightly lower rate than World Economic Outlook updates recently. Europe continues to stagnate although the threats of a Euro 1-2 break-up may be dissipating. It suggests that we are now in a “three speed” environment. Brazil’s airlines: The update lowered the IMF's central forecasts. It expects that Azul and Avianca Brazil rise world real GDP will grow by only 3.3% in 2013, down slightly from its to challenge Gol-TAM duopoly forecast of 3.5% growth made six months ago - developing and emerg - 3-14 ing economies generating around 5% in both 2013 and 2014; the US growing by 1.9% this year but starting to accelerate to generate 3% Briefing growth in 2014; the Eurozone remaining in recession this year before returning to 1% economic growth in the next. The only area where the Singapore Airlines: group has raised its forecasts is for Japan; the impact of Abenomics Under pressure 15-20 allowing that economy to improve by around 1.5% in this and next year - figures up by 40bp from the last forecast update. The BRIC nations have taken a lot of attention in recent years as Databases 21-24 being the prime engine of global economic growth. The designator of that soubriquet, Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs, may soon be retiring and European, US and Asian there may be concerns that the growth rates in China, Brazil, India and airline traffic and financials Russia are under pressure, but as The Economist pointed out in a recent article, all these economies have been maturing - and as growth matures Regional trends growth rates decline. In particular there has been a global upheaval as India and China have moved to regain a share of the world economy Orders they last saw in the 17th Century; but after the sprint of a catch-up in the past three decades the rate of growth will naturally decline. The four main BRIC nations all saw a “tough” 2012 (in relative REAL GDP GROWTH 15 Russia India China 10 PUBLISHER 5 Aviation Economics 0 James House, 1st Floor 22/24, Corsham Street -5 Japan Brazil EU USA London N1 6DR Tel: +44 (0)20 7490 5215 -10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E Fax: +44 (0)20 7490 5218 Source: IMF email: [email protected] www.aviationeconomics.com Aviation Strategy Analysis terms), as their economies could not find DOMESTIC RPK GROWTH the markets for goods in 30% the stagnated western 25% world. Russia, as an ener - gy producer fared rea - 20% Brazil China sonably well with growth of 3.4% down from 4.3% 15% the year before and 10% China's growth only declined to 7.8% from 5% Aviation Strategy 9.3%; but India slumped is published 10 times a year by from 7.7% to a mere 4% 0% Aviation Economics growth and Brazil to 0.9% from 2.7%. They all -5% Publisher: India suffered relatively high -10% Keith McMullan inflation as energy, wage [email protected] and food price pressures -15% 2 1 3 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 t r l increased. r r t l n Contributing Editor: n c c p u p p u a a J J O A J J A O Heini Nuutinen Given that GDP is a A prime determinant of air Source: IATA Production Editor: traffic demand it is per - Julian Longin [email protected] haps remarkable that there has been a distinct the domestic industries had been overheating difference between them in aviation terms. with significant excess capacity driving down Subscriptions : China's domestic air traffic (including traffic yields at a time when fuel costs have been [email protected] between mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau really hurting. With the cuts in capacity - both Tel: +44 (0)20 7490 5215 and Taiwan) grew by 8.8% in RPK terms in voluntary and forced - the evidence suggests 2012 similar to its GDP growth and despite that yields and unit revenues are now rising Copyright: what seems to have been a small decline in strongly (GOL achieved a near 14% year on Aviation Economics yields. The wild variations in the monthly per - year increase in yields in the first quarter); but All rights reserved formance in the chart above relate to the inci - growth is restrained. dence of national holidays and the Chinese It is not just economic performance that will Aviation Economics New Year, but current growth rates appear decide the development of aviation; regulation Registered No: 2967706 (England) consistent. Russia's total air traffic in 2012 and politics play important parts. China grew by 15% year on year in passenger num - remains highly regulated - with its command Registered Office: bers (according to Aeroflot), while (according based communist economy and restrictions on James House, 1st Floor to IATA) domestic traffic in RPKs increased by personal freedoms. Russia, as a former com - 22/24 Corsham St just under 8% after similar growth rates in the mand-based communist economy retains London N1 6DR previous two years. many internally focussed restrictions. However, VAT No: 701780947 By contrast Brazilian and Indian growth it is investigating the idea of encouraging LCC ISSN 2041-4021 (Online) rates have dipped considerably; in both cases development to spur air travel demand and The opinions expressed in this publication do following several years of strong expansion. In appears to be looking to invite non-Russian air - not necessarily reflect the opinions of the edi - Brazil total domestic demand growth slipped lines to help. India also has a highly regulated tors, publisher or contributors. Every effort is made to ensure that the information con - to 7.9% in RPK terms from the double digit domestic industry but is now relaxing owner - tained in this publication is accurate, but no legal reponsibility is accepted for any errors rates of growth in previous years. Since the ship restrictions - with Tony Fernandes's Air or omissions. beginning of 2013 this has gone into negative Asia planning to move into the sub-continent to The contents of this publication, either in territory with both GOL and TAM cutting provide further disruption. Meanwhile in Brazil, whole or in part, may not be copied, stored or reproduced in any format, printed or elec - capacity dramatically - and in the first three the overheated local environment is succumb - tronic, without the written consent of the months domestic demand has fallen by 1.3%. ing to the realities of the consolidation that has publisher. In India, total domestic demand actually fell in taken place in the Mercosur. With the devel - 2012 by 2.2% in RPK terms according to IATA - oped world in stagnation is the aviation indus - in part due to the collapse of Kingfisher, but try relying too much on the developing world also in face of air fare increases. In both cases to provide the growth? May/June 2013 2 Aviation Strategy Analysis Brazil’s airlines: Azul and Avianca Brazil rise to challenge Gol-TAM duopoly he Brazilian aviation market has seen signif - entered the middle class and an additional Ticant change in the past year or so, as 16m entered the upper income classes. The C demand growth has weakened, an unprece - class included 102m people in 2010, more dented capacity discipline has taken hold and than half of Brazil’s 192m population. industry consolidation has reached new The Brazilian market was ripe for air travel heights. Faced with financial losses domestical - stimulation also because long-distance travel ly, the two leading airlines have been restruc - alternatives are limited. Brazil is geographical - turing operations and have adopted many new ly similar in size to the continental US, but it strategies. How are the four main players – has no interstate rail system and the road Gol, TAM (now part of Latam), Azul-TRIP and infrastructure is poor. Buses have traditional - Avianca Brazil – now positioned for the ly been the only low-cost option for long-dis - remainder of 2013 and for the longer term? Is tance travel, but that mode is extremely time- Azul, which filed for a global IPO in late May, on consuming. Tapping that segment with low the verge of becoming a “third force” in fares was the cornerstone of Gol’s strategy Brazilian aviation? Will Avianca Brazil bid for from the start (and a key theme later adopted Portugal’s TAP and also become a major player also by other Brazilian carriers). in Brazil? The growing middle-income segment, ris - The past year’s upheavals come in the ing incomes and increasing availability of low wake of a tumultuous decade in the Brazilian air fares led to a surge in air travel. Domestic airline industry. The 2000s witnessed the air passenger numbers in Brazil have arrival of Gol as Brazil’s first LCC to stimulate increased from 28m in 2000 to over 92m in and revolutionise air travel (2001), the demise 2012, overtaking the bus passenger volumes of old-timers such as Transbrasil, VASP and in 2009. Growth was especially strong in the Varig (the latter was acquired by Gol in 2007) 2005-2010 period, when industry domestic and TAM’s rapid emergence as Brazil’s flag car - RPKs doubled.