Networked Authoritarianism and Social Media in Azerbaijan

Spin the tale of the donkey: Networked authoritarianism and social media in Azerbaijan

Dr. Katy Pearce, University of Washington @katypearce and Dr. Sarah Kendzior Washington University, St. Louis @sarahkendzior Outline

• Theoretical orientation: Networked Authoritarianism • Background – Internet in Azerbaijan – The Donkey Bloggers • Study – Quantitative public opinion surveys 2009 & 2010 – Content analysis of Azerbaijani media 2008-2011 – Qualitative interviews of Azerbaijani activists • Results • Discussion

2 NETWORKED AUTHORITARIANISM

3 Theoretical Orientation

• Under Networked authoritarianism: “the average person with Internet or mobile access has a much greater sense of freedom - and may feel that he has the ability to speak and be heard - in ways that were not possible under classic authoritarianism. At the same time, in the networked authoritarian state, there is no guarantee of individual rights and freedoms. Those whom the rulers see as threats are jailed; truly competitive, free, and fair elections are not held; and the courts and the legal system are tools of the ruling party” (MacKinnon, 2011, p. 33).

4 5 Azerbaijan Year 2009 2010 2011 Aware of Internet 76.90% 75.70% 88.50%

Of total, Adopted 18.90% 20.20% 26.20% Internet

Of total, Use Internet Never 76.40% 77.30% 62.20% Less than 7.7 8 6.3 monthly Monthly 2.7 3.2 2.5 Weekly 4.4 5.2 5.9 Daily 4.1 3.8 6.7 M=.45 M=.46 M=.63 SD =1.04 SD=1.05 SD=1.27 6 R=0-4 R=0-4 R=0-4 Internet in Azerbaijan

• Frequent users are young, wealthy, better educated, and have high English proficiency (Pearce & Rice, forthcoming). • Not much official content filtering. • Great self-censorship and perception of monitoring.

7 Donkey Bloggers

• September 2009, two young activists uploaded a YouTube video parodying the government. • Two weeks later, they were arrested for “hooliganism” and sentenced to 30 and 24 months imprisonment. • Released in November 2010 after international pressure. • No media coverage in-country, but extensive Internet coverage. • Thus, only online Azerbaijanis knew of the case. 8 STUDY

9 Effect of Donkey Bloggers

• Azerbaijani activists believe that the donkey blogger case was an effective deterrent for activism. • Using public opinion data, we tested this. • Demographic antecedents for Internet use and support for protest are similar. – Age, educational attainment, economic wellbeing.

10 Hypotheses

• H1: Age (-) -> Internet use (frequency) • H2: Economic wellbeing -> Internet use • H3: Educational attainment -> Internet use • H4: Age (-) -> Support for protest • H5: Economic wellbeing (-) -> Support for protest • H6: Educational attainment -> Support for protest • H7: Internet use -> Support for protest

11 Methods

• Caucasus Barometer (www.crrccenters.org) • N = 1795 in 2009; N = 2001 in 2010 • Multistage cluster sampling

• Analysis: structural equation models

12 2009 model explains 20% of variance in Internet use; 1% of variance in protest attitude 2010 model explains 20% of variance in Internet use; 2% of variance in protest attitude Results

2009 -.25 2010 -.01 Inet freq

2009 .09 age 2010 ns

2009 -.05 2010 -.01 2009 .08 2010 .10

2009 -.13 2010 -.11 econ Protest att 2009 .31 2010 .23 2009 .08 2010 .03

edu 13 Results

• As hypothesized, age, educational attainment and economic wellbeing were related to Internet use in both years. • Protest attitude model explained little variance, although economic wellbeing was negatively related to protest attitude as hypothesized and educational attainment was positively related as hypothesized. • Internet use only affected protest attitudes in 2009,

before the donkey bloggers. 14

2009 Internet X Protest Attitude 2010 Internet X Protest Attitudes very much disagree disagree very much disagree disagree neutral agree neutral agree very much agree very much agree

never 23 36 9 21 10 never 20 42 11 16 10

less 15 34 9 24 19 less 21 33 15 19 12

monthly 15 26 8 26 26 monthly 15 42 5 25 12

weekly 15 35 10 24 16 weekly 18 36 9 18 18

daily 13 25 9 38 15 daily 25 45 3 16 11 15 Discussion

• Thus, there was a noteworthy change in attitudes toward protests amongst Azerbaijani Internet users. – The demographic profile did not change between the two years. – There wasn’t much growth in use between the two years. – Qualitative interviews confirm this. – There was no such change in neighboring countries. • Unlike in “Arab Spring” type situations where social media mobilized users, in Azerbaijan, Internet

demoralized them. 16

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