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The Devil's in the Caveats: a Brief Discussion of the Diffculties of Basic A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Widerquist, Karl Article The Devil’s in the Caveats: A Brief Discussion of the Difficulties of Basic Income Experiments CESifo Forum Provided in Cooperation with: Ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich Suggested Citation: Widerquist, Karl (2018) : The Devil’s in the Caveats: A Brief Discussion of the Difficulties of Basic Income Experiments, CESifo Forum, ISSN 2190-717X, ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München, München, Vol. 19, Iss. 3, pp. 30-35 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/186084 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu FOCUS Karl Widerquist able to help non-specialists understand the limits and usefulness of scientific research. The Devil’s in the Caveats: Although there is some overlap between the A Brief Discussion of the academics, journalists, policymakers, and citizens involved in policy research and policy discussions, Difficulties of Basic Income most of the individuals in these groups do not have Experiments enough shared background knowledge to understand each other well. Researchers often do not understand what citizens and policymakers expect from research, while citizens and policymakers frequently fail to grasp the inherent difficulties of policy research, or the difference between what research shows and what The devil is in the detail is a common saying about they most want to know. People who do not understand policy proposals. Perhaps we need a similar saying the limits of experiments also cannot comprehend about policy research, something like the devil the value that experiments can contribute to our is in the caveats. No simple list of caveats can bridge understanding of an issue. the enormous gap in understanding between Specialists usually include a list of caveats the specialists who conduct policy research and covering the limitations of their research, but caveats the citizens and policymakers (including both elected are incapable of doing the work researchers often officials and public servants) who are responsible rely on them to do. A dense, dull, and lengthy list of Karl Widerquist for policy in a democracy, but who often have caveats cannot provide non-specialists with a firm Georgetown University-Qatar overblown expectations about what policy research grasp of what research does and does not imply can do. about the policy at issue. As a result, even the best For example, the headline, ‘In 2017, We Will Find scientific policy research can leave non-specialists Out If a Basic Income Makes Sense’, which appeared with an oversimplified, or simply wrong impression in MIT Technology Review in December 2016 (Condliffe of its implications for policy. Better written, longer, 2016), expressed a common belief about experiments clearer caveats will not solve the problem either. The with the Universal Basic Income (UBI) – a policy to communication problem, coupled with the inherent put a floor under everyone’s income. Although the limitations of social science experimentation, call for most laughable inaccuracy of this headline was an entirely different approach to bridging the gap in there were no plans to release findings from any understanding. experiments at all in 2017 (nor were any published), My forthcoming book, A Critical Analysis of Basic the more important inaccuracy was that it reflected Income Experiments for Researchers, Policymakers, and the common, but naive belief that UBI experiments Citizens: The Devil’s in the Caveats, addresses how these are capable of determining whether UBI ‘makes sense’. sorts of problems affect Universal Basic Income (UBI) No social science experiment can do any such thing. experiments that are underway, planned, or being Social science experiments can produce valuable considered in several countries around the world at information, but they cannot answer the big questions present. This article previews and summarises the that most interest policymakers and voters, such as major findings of that book. does UBI work or should we introduce it? UBI has many complex economic, political, social, The limited contribution that social science and cultural effects that cannot be observed in any experiments can make to big policy questions like small-scale, controlled experiment. Therefore, even the these would not be a problem if everyone understood best UBI experiment makes only a small contribution the experiment’s limitations, but unfortunately, the to the body of knowledge on the policy in question article in MIT Technology Review is no anomaly. It and leaves many important questions unanswered. is a good example of the misreporting on UBI and Citizens and policymakers considering introducing related experiments that has gone on for decades UBI are understandably interested in larger issues. (Widerquist 2005) by the publications we count on They want answers to the big questions like does to get it right. MIT Technology Review was founded at UBI work as intended; is it cost-effective; should we the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1899. Its introduce it on a national level? The gap between what website promises “intelligent, lucid, and authorita- an experiment can show and the answers to these big tive […] journalism […] by a knowledgeable questions is enormous. Within one field, specialists can editorial staff, governed by a policy of accuracy and often achieve a mutual understanding of this gap with independence”.1 Although the Review’s expertise is no more than a simple list of caveats, many of which in technology rather than scientific research, it is the can go without mentioning. Across different fields kind of publication that one would expect to be most mutual understanding quickly gets more difficult, and it becomes extremely difficult between groups as diverse as the people involved in the discussion of UBI 1 MIT Technology Review, What We Do, https://www.technologyre- view.com/about/. and UBI experiments. 30 CESifo Forum 3 / 2018 September Volume 19 FOCUS The process that brought about the experiments able to map to an audience looking for something to in most countries is not likely to produce research the effect of here is our best estimate of the solution to focused on bridging that gap in understanding. the entire puzzle. Caveats do not and cannot draw the The demand for the current round of experiments necessary connection: here is how the parts we were seems to be driven more by the desire to have a UBI able to map can be used toward a larger effort to find experiment than by the desire to learn anything the solution to the entire puzzle and how close or far we specific about UBI from an experiment. An unfocused remain from it. demand for a test puts researchers in a position to Caveats tend to focus, not on the connection learn whatever an experiment can show, regardless between the two goals, but on trying to help people of whether it is closely connected to what citizens and understand the research on its own terms. In terms of policymakers most want to know. The vast majority the analogy, caveats tend to focus on the areas that of research specialists who conduct experiments are experiments were able to map: how did they map this not fools or fakers. They will look for evidence that area; what does it mean to map this area; how accurate makes a positive and useful contribution to the body is the map of this area, and so on. The relationship of knowledge about UBI. But the effort to translate between the areas mapped and the solution to the that contribution into a better public understanding whole puzzle is often covered by one big caveat so of the body of evidence about UBI is far more difficult seemingly simple that it often goes unstated: obviously than often recognised. This communications problem the areas we mapped are far from a solution to the has badly affected many past experiments and is in entire puzzle. In other words, the information gathered danger of happening again. about UBI in an experiment is far from a definitive, To understand the difficulty of the task, imagine a overall evaluation of UBI as a policy. As obvious as that puzzle strewn out over the floor of a large, dark, locked caveat might be to researchers, it is not at all obvious room. A map of the entire puzzle, assembled together, to many non-specialists. provides an answer to the big questions – does it work, Of course, non-specialists know there are some and should we implement it. An experiment shines a caveats about the reliability of the experiment, but if light through a window, lighting up some of the puzzle they overlook or misunderstand that one big caveat pieces, so that researchers can attempt to map how they will nevertheless believe that researchers they might fit together. They can easily map the pieces provide their best estimate of whether ‘Basic Income near the window, but further away their view gets Makes Sense’ (Condliffe 2016) and they will tend to dimmer, the accuracy of their map decreases, and in look for that answer in any report on the study.
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