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Hostile Social Manipulation: Present Realities and Emerging Trends Hostile Social Manipulation Present Realities and Emerging Trends Michael J. Mazarr, Abigail Casey, Alyssa Demus, Scott W. Harold, Luke J. Matthews, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, James Sladden C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2713 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0260-8 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Contents Figures .............................................................................. v Tables ..............................................................................vii Summary .......................................................................... ix Acknowledgments ............................................................. xvii Abbreviations .................................................................... xix CHAPTER ONE Introduction: Information and Democracy— A Perilous Relationship ..................................................... 1 The Growing Danger of Social Manipulation .................................. 2 Study Design, Methodology, and Scope ........................................ 5 The Broader Danger: A Corrupted Information Environment............... 8 CHAPTER TWO Understanding Social Manipulation: Definitions and Typologies .....11 Defining Key Categories .........................................................11 The Goals of Social Manipulation ..............................................18 The Range of Options: Examples of Hostile Social Manipulation ........ 20 The Past: Understanding the Context for Social Manipulation ............ 23 CHAPTER THREE Hostile Social Manipulation: Russian Activities ..........................29 Methodology ......................................................................31 History: Soviet and Russian Approaches to Social Manipulation ...........33 Doctrine: Russia’s Conceptualization of Social Manipulation ..............49 Strategies: How Russia Conducts Social Manipulation Today ............62 iii iv Hostile Social Manipulation: Present Realities and Emerging Trends Actions: What Russia Is Doing and How .................................... 77 Effectiveness of Russia’s Efforts ................................................ 92 Conclusions ...................................................................... 103 CHAPTER FOUR Hostile Social Manipulation: Chinese Activities ........................ 105 History: China’s Approach to Social Manipulation ........................ 107 Doctrine: China’s Goals for Foreign Policy and Information Operations .................................................................. 110 “Magic Weapons”: China’s Offensive Approach to Defense ............... 113 Strategies: Who Manages the Media and the Messages? ................... 121 Actions: China’s Information Operations Through Social Media ........ 131 Effectiveness of China’s Efforts ................................................ 151 Conclusions and Implications for U.S. Policy ............................... 162 CHAPTER FIVE Does Hostile Social Manipulation Work? Measures of Success in Russian Activities in Europe and the United States ................ 167 United States ..................................................................... 171 United Kingdom ................................................................ 184 France ............................................................................. 194 Germany ......................................................................... 206 The Baltic States ................................................................ 210 Poland ............................................................................ 215 Summary of Outcome Evidence .............................................. 219 CHAPTER SIX Hostile Social Manipulation: The Experience to Date— Conclusions and Implications .......................................... 225 Bibliography .................................................................... 231 Figures 2.1. The Boundaries of Social Manipulation ..........................16 4.1. Articles Referencing Russia Today in Chinese-Language Publications Since 2016 ........................................... 117 4.2. Articles Referencing Social Media in Party Construction ..... 123 4.3. Articles Referencing Social Media in United Front Science ... 124 4.4. Articles Referencing Social Media in International Communications .................................................... 125 4.5. Articles Referencing Social Media in Military Correspondent ....................................................... 129 4.6. Articles on Chinese Diaspora and Social Media in International Communications .................................... 137 4.7. Global Opinion of China ......................................... 152 4.8. Chinese Journal Articles on Foreign Public Opinion of China ................................................................ 153 4.9. International Communications Articles on Shaping Foreign Public Opinion of China ................................ 154 5.1. Favorable Ratings for Russia Among American Public, 2013–2017 .......................................................... 172 5.2. Favorability Ratings of Russia Among British Public, 2013–2017 .......................................................... 186 5.3. British Attitude Toward Relationship with European Union ............................................................... 189 5.4. Favorability Ratings of Russia Among French Republic, 2013–2017 ......................................................... 195 5.5. Political Content Shared by Twitter Users in Rounds One and Two of the 2017 French Election ........................... 199 v vi Hostile Social Manipulation: Present Realities and Emerging Trends 5.6. Political Content Shared by Twitter Users in Several Elections ............................................................ 200 5.7. Favorability Ratings for Russia Among German Public, 2013–2017 .......................................................... 207 5.8. Favorability Ratings for NATO Among German Public, 2013–2017 .......................................................... 209 5.9. Favorability Ratings of Russia Among Polish Public, 2013–2017 .......................................................... 216 5.10. Favorability Ratings for NATO Among Polish Public, 2013–2017 .......................................................... 218 5.11. Percentage of Various Publics with Favorable View of European Union .................................................. 220 5.12. Percentage of Various Publics with Favorable View of NATO .............................................................. 221 Tables 2.1. Categorizing Informational Behavior .............................12 2.2. Goals and Objectives of Social Manipulation Campaigns .....19 2.3. Techniques and Mechanisms for Social Manipulation ......... 22 4.1. Taxonomy of Chinese Influence Operations via Social Media ................................................................ 132 4.2. Select Chinese Government and Media Accounts on Western Social Media Platforms ................................. 155 5.1. Comparing Metrics of Social Manipulation Efforts and Effects in Rounds One and Two of French Election .......... 198 5.2. Recent Security Initiatives in the Baltics ........................ 213 5.3. NATO Collective Initiatives Since 2014 ........................ 223 vii Summary The role of information warfare in global strategic competition has become much more apparent in recent years. Today’s practitioners of what this report terms hostile social manipulation employ targeted social media campaigns, sophisticated forgeries, cyberbullying and harass- ment of individuals, distribution of rumors and conspiracy theories, and other tools and approaches to cause damage to the target state. This emerging practice reflects an updated and modified version of many long-established forms of influence, including propaganda, “active measures,” disinformation, and political warfare, a group of techniques sometimes referred to with the overarching term measures short of war. The subject has become a leading topic of debate in the West in the wake of reports of Russian election interference, not only in the United States but throughout Europe. These emerging tools and techniques represent a potentially sig- nificant threat to
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