1 Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
José M. Moreno (Spain), Clara Laguna-Defi or (Spain), Vicente Barros (Argentina), Eduardo Calvo (Peru), José A. Marengo (Brazil), and Úrsula Oswald Spring (Mexico).
This chapter should be cited as:
Moreno, J.M., C. Laguna-Defi or, V. Barros, E. Calvo, J.A. Marengo, and Ú. Oswald Spring, 2020: Conceptual Framework and Regional Context. In: Adaptation to Clima- te Change Risks in Ibero-American Countries — RIOCCADAPT Report [Moreno, J.M., C. Laguna-Defi or, V. Barros, E. Calvo Buendía, J.A. Marengo, and U. Oswald Spring (eds.)], McGraw Hill, Madrid, Spain (pp. 1-46, ISBN: 9788448621667). Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
CONTENTS
Executive summary...... 3 1.1. Introduction to the report...... 3 1.2. Adaptation in a conceptual framework of risk...... 5 1.3. Geographic framework...... 8 1.4. The climate of the RIOCC countries...... 9 1.4.1. Current climate...... 9 1.4.1.1. Mexico ...... 10 1.4.1.2. Central America and the Caribbean...... 10 1.4.1.3. Northern Andean Pacific (NAP)...... 11 1.4.1.4. Central Andean Pacific ...... 12 1.4.1.5. Patagonia...... 12 1.4.1.6. Amazonia ...... 12 1.4.1.7. Northeastern Brazil ...... 12 1.4.1.8. Southeast South America ...... 13 1.4.1.9. Iberian Peninsula ...... 13 1.4.2. Recent climate changes ...... 13 1.4.3. Future climate projections ...... 15 1.5. Biogeography of the region: natural systems...... 15 1.5.1. Terrestrial systems...... 15 1.5.2. Continental aquatic systems...... 19 1.5.3. Coastal and marine systems...... 21 1.6. Socioeconomic framework...... 23 1.6.1. Demography and structure of the population...... 23 1.6.2. Economy...... 25 1.6.3. Poverty, inequality, and corruption...... 26 1.6.4. Social and labor inclusion...... 28 1.6.5. Violence, conflicts, and migration ...... 28 1.6.6. Greenhouse gas emissions ...... 31 1.7. Political and institutional framework...... 31 1.7.1. Adaptation assessment in the framework of the Paris Agreement...... 31 1.7.2. National perspective for CCA assessment...... 31 1.7.3. Global perspective for climate change adaptation assessment...... 34 1.7.4. Coordination mechanisms in the region for adaptation...... 34 1.7.5. Finance monitoring...... 37 Frequently Asked Questions...... 38 Acknowledgments ...... 39 Bibliography...... 39
2 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
RIOCC countries have no national superstructures with joint Executive summary task forces to coordinate efforts in the battle against climate change. There are regional coordination structures for some Climate change implies risks to human and natural systems. of these policies (EU, UNASUR, ACTO, Andean Community, To reduce or prevent its impacts, adaptation is necessary. Mercosur, ALBA, AILAC, and others), although generally the This report describes the main hazards, vulnerabilities, risks, battle against climate change has not been the main target and impacts, as well as climate change adaptation actions of these entities. adopted by member countries of the Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de Cambio Climático (Ibero-American Network of The degree of adaptation of RIOCC countries globally is Climate Change Offices or RIOCC). This network includes all predominantly medium to low, with few exceptions. Specif- Ibero-American countries in America and the Iberian Peninsu- ically, according to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, la. The analysis has focused on the main human and natural RIOCC countries mostly rank globally from medium to high, sectors and primary climate-based risks. with three exceptions that have lower rankings. A high ranking indicates greater vulnerability to climate change and less The region includes a wide variety of climates, as well as preparation for adaptation. terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems. Its climates range from the wettest (Colombia) to the driest (Atacama National adaptation plans or programs are the main tools Desert) in the world, from tropical (Amazonia) to the coldest used by countries to implement their adaptation actions. climates (Patagonia). The region is a wealth of extreme weath- Generally almost all RIOCC countries have adaptation plans er and climate events and other disturbances and disasters or programs underway. Furthermore, all countries communi- associated with these, such as hurricanes and storms (Carib- cate with the United Nations Framework Convention on Cli- bean, Pacific, and Atlantic coastlines of Mexico and Central mate Change regarding their progress on this issue through America), floods (Argentina), droughts (Brazil, Chile, Iberian the respective national communications and more recently Peninsula), landslides (Mesoamerica, Colombia), and wild- through the biennial update reports. fires (Iberian Peninsula, Chile, Brazil). The region is home to a representation of most terrestrial, freshwater, and marine In addition to national efforts, there are currently a series ecosystems on Earth. of adaptation actions underway that have been financed by international agencies. There are different adaptation Temperature is on the rise in most countries, while precip- funds linked to national and international entities such as itation is decreasing in some countries and increasing in UNFCCC or the World Bank, among others, which channel and others. While the increase in temperature is widespread, provide adaptation funds from more developed countries to changes in precipitation are more varied and include both developing countries, as established in the Paris Agreement. increases (Argentina) and decreases (Spain, Chile). Climate The European Union and several of its member states (Spain change foresees an increase in temperature, but with varia- and Portugal, among others) also finance adaptation actions tions in magnitude in different regions. Precipitation is pro- in other countries. RIOCC countries have been carrying out jected to decrease in subtropical semiarid zones in America adaptation projects financed by these funds or entities. and Europe (Chile, Brazil, Mexico, northern Central America, and the Iberian Peninsula). There is widespread social and economic inequality 1.1. Introduction to the report between and within RIOCC countries, and the structural poverty in many cases increases vulnerability to climate The purpose of the RIOCCADAPT report is to assess climate change and leads to difficulties in adaptation. Poverty is change adaptation actions being carried out in member coun- widespread, particularly in some countries (e.g., Central tries of the Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de Cambio Climático America). However, the types of diseases have changed (Ibero-American Network of Climate Change Offices or RIOCC), from infectious-contagious diseases that are endemic to i.e., Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking countries in America, the underdeveloped countries to chronic-degenerative diseases Caribbean, and the Iberian Peninsula (Figure 1.1). associated with increased development and linked to obesi- ty. Life expectancy is higher than the global average. Gender This report has addressed diverse thematic areas that are inequality is still a major issue. RIOCC countries are a source relevant for RIOCC countries, such as natural or managed of migration within the region and abroad. systems, other key sectors and the main extreme weather and climate risks. Each of these thematic areas has been With the exception of five countries, average greenhouse broken down into more specific topics, for a total of fifteen gas emissions per person are lower than the global mean. that are included in the report (Table 1.1). Each topic has However, in some countries, emissions from land use chang- been treated in a separate chapter that provides details of es are extremely high, exceeding all other emissions several the sectoral adaptation actions that have been documented, times over. along with other aspects. The actions included are derived The political framework for cooperation and coordination from both planned and autonomous actions. Each chapter of climate change policies is poorly developed. Beyond the includes several case studies whose experiences provide ministerial sectoral Ibero-American summits and forums, useful conclusions for adaptation.
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 3 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
Andorra
Portugal Cuba Spain
Mexico Dominican Republic Venezuela Colombia Ecuador Brazil Guatemala Peru Honduras Nicaragua Bolivia Paraguay Chile Uruguay
Costa Rica Argen�na Panama
El Salvador
Figure 1.1. Member countries of the Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de Cambio Climático (RIOCC), Source: compiled by the authors based on SMHI (2008).
Table 1.1. Content of the report by chapter. The case studies provide a compendium of possible prac- tices, including some best practices to foster adaptation in Thematic area Chapter Topics addressed in each chapter RIOCC countries. To contextualize adaptation actions, the 1 Conceptual Framework and Regional Context report also includes a climate change risk and impact anal- I. General Society, Governance, Inequality, and ysis, as well as an analysis of vulnerabilities. Another goal introduction 2 Adaptation of the report has been to gather information available in 3 Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems the region on adaptation activities. Although the main texts II. Natural 4 Coastal and Marine Ecosystems have been supported with peer-reviewed bibliography, this systems report has also included any useful information available on 5 Biodiversity any level of public administration or from private entities, 6 Water Resources III. Managed and the authors have undertaken the corresponding quality 7 Agriculture Sector systems controls regarding this information. This is especially relevant 8 Fishing Resources for case studies. 9 Storms and Hurricanes In addition to the fourteen sectoral chapters, the report con- IV. Climate 10 Floods and Droughts disaster tains two more general chapters that present the context of risks 11 Slope Instability and Landslides the report and the region, as well as social aspects relating 12 Wildfires to governance and inequity, laying the foundation for the rest 13 Urban and Rural Settlements of the chapters. This chapter, “Conceptual framework and regional context”, sets forth the conceptual risk framework, V. Other key 14 Coastal Areas areas and which will be a constant thread in the rest of the chapters, 15 Tourism sectors adapted to each topic. Likewise, baseline information is 16 Human Health provided on geographic, environmental, socioeconomic, and institutional aspects in the region to establish its contextual
4 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
framework against climate change and adaptation to this. each of the selected sectors and systems. The risk materi- The second chapter, entitled “Society, governance, inequity, alization is expressed in the form of impacts (e.g., flooded and adaptation”, addresses the most relevant social aspects or destroyed houses, human morbidity and mortality due to for the region in the aforementioned context. extreme heat, etc.). The risk can materialize suddenly (e.g., landslide resulting from torrential rain), or gradually, where The remaining fourteen thematic chapters share a common the stress builds up little by little (e.g., sea level rise, icemelt script, which includes the following sections: introduction; from mountain glaciers) (Lavell et al., 2012; Oppenheimer risk components in relation to the sector or system (haz- et al., 2014). ards, exposure, vulnerability); characterization of risks and impacts, adaptation measures (planned and autonomous); Impacts may also feed back into the drivers that determine barriers, opportunities, and interactions; adaptation mea- risk. For example, a severe flood may require people to invest sures or indicators; case studies; main knowledge gaps their savings in rebuilding their homes, leaving them without and priority lines of action; conclusions; frequently asked resources and exposed if there is a new contingency. The questions; and bibliography. At the start of each chapter, an importance of socioeconomic processes and governance can executive summary provides the main messages that are not be downplayed. The less sustainable and more unequal then integrated into the corresponding summary for the pol- a society is, the greater the risks will be for the same hazard icy-makers. The report is available in Spanish and English. level, and the lower its capacity to adapt to these (Figure The summary for policy-makers is published in English, Span- 1.2). Furthermore, within a society, not everyone has the ish, and Portuguese. The report is free to the public on the same options and opportunities, and therefore we cannot RIOCC website (http://www.lariocc.es/). assume that climate and climate change risks only affect countries that are worse off (Olsson et al., 2014). Socioeco- nomic processes have a direct impact on socioeconomic risk factors (e.g., more or less poverty, which has an impact on 1.2. Adaptation in a conceptual vulnerability), but they also have an indirect one by affecting framework of risk livelihoods (e.g., poverty may increase pressure on the land, reducing the capacity of the ecosystem to face adverse sit- uations) (Figure 1.2). The idea of contextualizing the impacts of climate change and adaptation a risk framework was established in the IPCC Climate change adaptation (CCA) refers to any action, activ- in the SREX 2012 special report (Field et al., 2012) and was ity, plan, or program whose final aim is to reduce or prevent fully developed in the fifth IPCC assessment report (AR5). climate change risks and their subsequent impacts through Chapter 19 of this report develops this approach in depth risk management (Figure 1.3). We can divide the available (Oppenheimer et al., 2014). Establishing this framework has options to take on this risk into several types: 1) institutional the advantage that public administration and society as a (laws, standards, ordinances, etc.); 2) social (educational, whole is used to taking on diverse risks, which may facilitate training, behavioral measures, etc.); and 3) structural or the response to these. The fundamental premise is that cli- physical, such as the construction of infrastructures of any mate change brings about risks, which must be addressed type or technological applications (EEA 2013; Noble et al., through adaptation to prevent or reduce their impacts. There- 2014). The first two types of actions are known as “soft” fore, adaptation specifically means putting measures into adaptation and the third types of actions are known as “hard” practice that reduce, where possible, impacts derived from or “gray” adaptation. the materialization of climate change risks. Knowing these In a strict sense, adaptation is conceived as something that risks and characterizing them in terms of their importance, is planned to address a future scenario that will be different of our ability to face these, or of their imminence is a neces- than the current situation, using different scenarios as a sary first step to put into motion effective adaptation plans. basis for this without assigning probability. On the other Climate and climate change risks arise as a result of the hand, people, social groups, and communities react to what interaction of three components: hazard exposure, and vul- is happening (e.g., disasters caused by extreme weather nerability (Figure 1.2). Climate and its hazards interact with or climate), and their reactions may lead to actions that the exposure of people or property that is of our interest have an adaptive value for future events related to climate to produce risks that will depend on the vulnerability of the change. Considering how the adaptive process is handled, exposed elements (Oppenheimer et al., 2014). Whereas cli- adaptation measures can be differentiated into planned and mate hazards in large part are out of our control and our autonomous adaptation measures. Planned adaptation is sphere of intervention, the drivers that contribute to exposure the “result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an and vulnerability (physical, economic, social, environmen- awareness that conditions have changed or are about to tal) allow a greater degree of intervention (e.g., good urban change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or planning will reduce exposure, a good sanitary system may achieve a desired state” (IPCC, 2007). In contrast, auton- involve preventive measures against extreme heat in at-risk omous adaptation is a “response to experienced climate populations, etc.). The report analyzes the risk components and its effects, without planning explicitly or conscious- throughout its content and presents diverse examples for ly focused on addressing climate change” (IPCC, 2014).
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 5 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
IMPACTS
SOCIOECONOMICSOCIOECO CLIMATEIMATE VVulnerabilityulnerability PROCESSESPROCES
Natural Socioeconomic variability pathways
Hazards RISK Adaptation and mitigation Anthropogenic actions climate change
Governance ExposureExposure
Emissions Land use changes
Other hazards and stressors
Figure 1.2. Conceptual framework of risk expressed as the product of the interaction between climate and climate change hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, which in human systems mostly depend on socioeconomic processes that determine the socioeconomic pathways, adaptation and mitigation actions, and governance. Risks materialize into impacts that in turn, may affect climate or socioeconomic processes. These may affect other factors that also contribute to the risk, as far as emissions, changes in land use, and other hazards and stress factors affect climate change directly or through direct actions on the risks themselves. Source: modified from Chap.19, AR5, WG2, IPCC, 2014 (Oppenheimer et al., 2014).
However, more recently the term autonomous adaptation is the needs of more vulnerable social groups against climate also being used to refer to actions carried out by individu- change (children, women, the elderly, differently-abled peo- als, companies, or communities with no public intervention, ple, and poor people) and therefore on this type of strategy. which generally respond to private interests, but that are developed within a framework of wholly adaptive actions. In general, the preceding strategies are implemented sec- In juxtaposition to this, planned adaptation is the result of toraly. However, integrated strategies that try to address deliberate political decisions aimed at covering social needs multiple targets are increasingly more frequent, including with mostly public spending (Bee et al., 2016). The subtlety not only CCA, but also development objectives or disaster of whether the adaptation is more or less conscious, reac- risk reduction (DRR). Some examples are community-based tive or anticipatory would become secondary. adaptation (CBA), ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA, also On the other hand, a certain parallel can be drawn between known as nature-based solutions), integrated water resourc- the previous classification (autonomous adaptation versus es management (IWRM), or integrated coastal zone manage- planned adaptation) and the way it is carried out, where it ment (ICZM) (Klein et al., 2014). is not uncommon to speak of “top down” or “bottom up”. A final challenge when identifying adaptation actions, partic- Top down strategies are based on scenarios and therefore ularly in terms of their assessment, is the fact that in many would be analogous to planned adaptation. These involve cases there is no record of them as such. Adaptation actions climatic and socioeconomic projections based on scenarios to calculate impacts and formulate adaptive responses. This are often embeded within other policies. Clear examples of is the approach that is generally followed by governments. this are the Disaster Risk Management (DRM) plans and Bottom up actions, in contrast, are based on what are more programs (Trabacchi et al., 2016). In fact, the most attrac- or less immediate needs of people and communities. As con- tive adaptation actions are generally considered to be those sideration of the social dimension of climate change receives that also offer short-term development benefits, such as a greater attention, we see a growing emphasis on addressing reduction in long-term vulnerabilities (Mimura et al., 2014).
6 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
New risk Risk management Vulnerability Vulnerability Ini�al risk
Hazards Risk Hazards Risk Climate Change
Exposure Exposure
Residual risk
Adapta�on
Figure 1.3. Climate change brings about risks that are greater than those already in existence or new risks that require management to reduce, where possible, the corresponding impacts. Adaptation therefore tries to act upon all three risk components. An intervention to climate hazards may be less feasible and therefore actions applied to the other two risk components will be more important. Even with adaptation, it will be impossible to migate the risk in its totality, meaning there will be a residual risk that needs to be addressed. Source: compiled by the authors based on Chap.19, AR5, WG2, IPCC, 2014 (Oppenheimer et al., 2014).
This report leaves it to the criteria of the authors of each have been given the freedom to determine for each of the chapter to characterize the adaptation actions assessed sectors, which actions they consider as adaptation, regard- based on the different categories, although emphasis has less of whether or not they were declared as such at their been placed on planned and autonomous adaptation. The origin. The purpose behind this has been to provide the reason behind this differentiation has been to draw atten- broadest vision possible of the matter in question, not so tion to and highlight autonomous actions wherever possi- much for the purpose of conducting a thorough survey of ble, as these are carried out in settings that are less acces- what has been done, but rather for showing the range of sible to the scientific community. Likewise, the authors options used in each sector.
Box 1.1. Some key concepts related to risk and adaptation
Hazard: Potential occurrence of an physical event or trend that is human Risk: Potential consequences when something of human value (includ- or natural in origin, or a physical impact, which may result in loss of ing people) is in danger and the outcome is uncertain. Often the risk life, injuries, or other adverse affects on health, as well as damages is represented as the probability of occurrence of hazardous trends or and loss to properties, infrastructure, livelihoods, provision of services, events multiplied by the consequences if such an event occurs (R=P*C; and environmental resources. This report uses the term threat inter- where R= risk, P=probability, C=consequences or impacts). Risks result changeably with hazard. from the interaction between the threat or hazard, exposure, and vul- nerability, and they are expressed as: R=H*E*V (R=risk; H= hazard; Exposure: The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, E= exposure; V= vulnerability). functions, services and environmental resources, infrastructure, or eco- Risk Management: Plans, measures, or policies applied to reduce the nomic, social or cultural or assets in places and settings that may be likelihood or consequences of risks or to respond to their consequences. adversely affected. Adaptation: Adjustment process to the real or projected climate and Vulnerability: Propensity or predisposition to being adversely affect- its effects. In human systems, adaptation tries to moderate or prevent ed. Vulnerability comprises a variety of concepts that include sensi- damages or take advantage of beneficial opportunities. In some natu- tivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of response and adaptation ral systems, human intervention may facilitate the adjustment to the capacity. projected climate and its effects.
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 7 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
of this region is formed by a mountain chain and is one of 1.3. Geographic framework the Earth’s volcanic belts, with around 90 volcanoes, some of which are active. In South America, it extends through The territories of RIOCC countries have been grouped into the Caribbean parts of Colombia and Venezuela, north of the nine regions (Figure 1.4), which generally follow the divisions Andes. The northernmost part of the Andes presents some of from prior IPCC reports (Magrin et al., 2014; Seneviratne et the highest precipitations in the world (>12,000 mm, region al., 2012), with a few adjustments and additions. of Chocó, Colombia). Below is a brief description of each of the regions: Among other islands in the Caribbean, this includes Cuba and Mexico: Mountainous country, with 1.9 M km2, formed by part of Hispaniola (Dominican Republic), which also forms part two mountain ranges that cross it from north to south: the of the RIOCC. The Caribbean Sea is an inner sea of the Atlantic Sierra Madre Oriental and the western coastal sierras along Ocean with an area of 2.7 M km2 and 13,500 km of coast- the Pacific Ocean (Sierra Madre Occidental and Sierra Madre line, with elevated salinity (3.6%) and temperature (22-29ºC), del Sur). The great Mexican Meseta lies between the two, at where hurricanes are frequent. Coral reefs (26,000 km2), 2,000 m above sea level, crossed by the transversal neo-vol- marine beds (66,000 km2), and mangroves (11,560 km2) are canic mountain chain over 5,000 m in altitude. To the north- widespread ecosystems (Miloslavich et al., 2010). west, the Baja California Peninsula is made up of the Gulf Amazonia: This is the Amazon basin area, which includes of California or Sea of Cortés, and the Yucatan Peninsula 7.4 million km2, representing 4.9% of the global continental can be found to the southeast, bordering the Gulf of Mexico area. It covers parts of Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, (INEGI, 2008) Peru, and Venezuela, among RIOCC countries. The Amazon Central America and the Caribbean: Central America includes river basin is the largest in the world, with average precipita- the following RIOCC countries: Guatemala, Honduras, El Sal- tion of approximately 2,200 mm and an average discharge vador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and the northern of 230,000 m3 of water per second, corresponding to approx- part of Colombia and Venezuela. The North American part imately 20% of all fresh water on the global land surface
IBE
MEX CAC
AMZ
NEB NAP MEX = Mexico CAC = Central America and Caribbean SSA AMZ = Amazonia CAP NEB = Northeastern Brazil SSA = Southeastern South America NAP = North Andean Pacific CAP = Central Andean Pacific PAT = Patagonia IBE = Iberian Peninsula PAT
0 1,5 00 3,000 6,000 9,0 00 12,000 15,000 km
Figure 1.4. Topographical map of RIOCC countries and geographical division used in this report. Source: NASA. Source: compiled by the authors based on Magrin et al. (2014) and Seneviratne et al. (2012).
8 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
(ECLAC and Patrimonio Natural, 2013; ACTO, 2015; Marengo Patagonia: This area includes the American Southern Cone et al., 2013, 2018a). To the north, this also includes the Ori- territory that starts at the Araucanía Region on the Chilean noco river basin, with the third highest flow in the world and side, crossing the Andes towards southern Neuquen and Rio a surface of 0.9 M km2. Most of the territory is flat and is Negro, and continuing to the east where it discharges into flanked on the north and east by the Andes and the south by the Atlantic Ocean on the Argentine side. This also includes the Brazilian Highlands. In the middle, separating the basins the Tierra del Fuego archipelago. The Andes cross this area of both rivers is the Guiana Shield. from north to south, until disappearing into the Atlantic Ocean at Cape Horn. There is a remarkable contrast between Northeastern Brazil: this region occupies an area that is 1.54 the Chilean side, where the Andes mountain range is more M km2 or close to 11% of the area of Brazil (IBGE, 2010, abrupt, with numerous volcanoes and average altitude above 2014; Magalhaes et al., 1988). The northeastern states of 2,500 m, and the semiarid plains of Argentina. The south- Brazil are Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará, Río Grande del Norte, ern coastline is jagged with abundant fjords. The region has Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas, Sergipe, and Bahía (CGEE scant population and is rich in natural protected areas. and World Bank, 2016). The most vulnerable part of north- eastern Brazil is the semiarid part, also called Sertão, which Iberian Peninsula: Located on the southwestern border of is frequently affected by drought (CGEE and World Bank, the European continent, it has an area of 0.6 M km2 and is 2016; Marengo et al., 2018a, 2019). mostly occupied by three RIOCC countries: Spain, Portugal, and Andorra. Its main components are: the central meseta Southeast South America: This covers territories in five coun- (plateau); the inner mountains of the meseta that divide it tries: Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay. This into north and south; the mountains that border the meseta; includes a large part of the Brazilian massif, wide elevated the mountains outside the meseta; the Ebro and Guadalquivir plains crossed by sierras of medium height (barely reaching Depressions nestled between the latter and the mountains 2,500 m) to the north. To the south, it is formed by the pam- bordering the meseta, and the Tajo-Sado Atlantic; and the pa plains, occupied by the Rio de la Plata basin, which covers coastal plains (Terán and Solé Sabarís, 1954a, 1954b). an area of around 3.17 millions of km2, which makes it the The Balearic Islands in the Mediterranean Sea, as well as second largest in South America. The average flow of the the Azores and Canary Islands in the Atlantic Ocean also form basin is 23,000 m/s, and most of its watercourses can be part of the territory of Spain and Portugal. navigated in medium sized vessels and almost all in barges. This hydrographic basin discharges into Río de la Plata and from here on to the Atlantic Ocean (OAS, 2006). Northern Andean Pacific: This area extends from latitudes 1.4. The climate of the RIOCC near the equator in the northern hemisphere (0.53ºN) to countries parallel 28ºS and comprises parts or all of Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina and Chile or Ecuador, respectively. It covers tropical (from the Caribbean in the north) and subtropical (in 1.4.1. Current climate the south) climate zones. The dominant element is the Andes The RIOCC region has a wide variety of climates due to its broad mountain range, rainy in the north and dry as we travel farther surface area spread across three continents and insular territo- south, with the Atacama desert as maximum expression of ries, its orography, and the varying conditions in the adjacent dryness. In the north, the mountain range branches into three, seas. Given that most of it falls between the two tropics, its giving way to raised valleys, rivers that run through these in a climates are mostly tropical or subtropical. The main climate driv- south-north direction, and seasonal rivers towards the Pacific er in tropical regions, in addition to latitude, is the intertropical that feed into major coastal cities (Guayaquil, Lima, etc.). In convergence zone (ITCZ), a cloud belt around the planet at low its central zone, the Andes mountains widen, giving rise to a latitudes and generally in the northern hemisphere, where trade vast raised meseta (plateau) or altiplano (highlands) (3,800 m winds from the north and south converge, producing a cloud mean altitude). Life in this territory is marked by its altitude cover and abundant precipitation in a variable width band (100 (with its low and contrasting temperatures) and aridity. This to 500 km). Its seasonal latitudinal migration due to the variation region includes the volcanic Galápagos Islands. of solar radiation and associated phenomena determines that a large part of the region has a rainy season in the summer with Central Andean Pacific: This extends to both sides of the greater wind circulation from the ocean and a dry winter with less Andes in the Argentine sierra and pre-sierra zones, and its wind from the ocean. This is a monsoon-type climate. equivalents on the Chilean side, although in this part, the Andes emerge more abruptly, giving rise to narrow coastal Climates in the subtropical regions of Latin America are plains. This widens towards the south, giving rise to the most under the effect of their interaction with tropical climates populated area of Chile. The fundamental characteristic of this and anticyclone circulation on subtropical oceans. These anti- zone is the influence of the anticyclone of the South Pacific cyclones are more intense and seasonal on the west coast, in its climate, giving rise to a marked seasonality of precipita- where they produce arid climates, and are less intense and tion. These are scarce in the north and increase in abundance intermittent on the east coast where their circulation brings to the south, especially on the Chilean side, giving rise to a humidity from the tropics and oceans. The Iberian Peninsu- Mediterranean-type climate toward the border with Patagonia. la is under the influence of the Azores anticyclone and the
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 9 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
circulation of westerly winds. Seasonal migration of these 1.4.1.2. Central America and the Caribbean synoptic systems determines the Mediterranean climate that characterizes it. Below is a brief description of the climate in The main climate drivers in the Central American and Carib- each region (indicated in Figure 1.4 of the previous section). bean region are its low altitude and the ITCZ, with its sea- Figures 1.5 and 1.6 show the mean annual temperature and sonal fluctuation. The temperature of the Caribbean Sea and annual precipitation for the entire RIOCC region. Pacific Ocean near its coastline is also important. Average monthly temperatures for the nearby Caribbean and Pacific Ocean range between 26ºC in April and 28ºC in October. The 1.4.1.1. Mexico threshold temperature for tropical storm and cyclone forma- tion is 27ºC, which explains why the hurricane season in the The climate of Mexico is very diverse due to its complex Caribbean extends from August to October, while it ends a orography, latitudinal reach, and the surrounding oceans. month earlier in the Pacific near Central America. The hurri- To the northeast, the North Pacific anticyclone and the cold cane zone is latitudinally limited because these must be near California current create Mediterranean climate conditions. the ITCZ and not too close to the equator (Barry and Chorley, The south and southwest share the warm monsoon features 1992). Although hurricanes and their precipitations, intense of northern Central America and its coastline is affected by winds, and tides are sources of material disaster and loss hurricanes. In the elevated central meseta zones, tempera- of lives, the contribution they make to annual precipitation is tures are temperate and cold, depending on altitude, and important in drought mitigation (Alfaro, 2014). precipitation shows a great spatial variability. Central America is a narrow strip of continent between two Climate is predominantly dry in the central and northern part very warm ocean zones. The lower lands have the highest of the country and desert-like in Baja California, except in its temperatures on both coasts and the higher interior zones northernmost part. In arid zones, temperatures are extremely are more temperate. Another feature of the climate in the warm during the day and very cold at night. The coasts of region is that the daily temperature range is much higher the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean have a warm humid than the seasonal one. Average monthly temperatures in the climate and precipitation is mostly concentrated in the sum- region vary from 24ºC to 28ºC, except in the north, where mer months (Mosiño and García, 1974). they are somewhat lower. Annual precipitation increases from
Mean annual temperature (°C)
Figure 1.5. Mean annual temperature (ºC), average for 1970-2000. Source: compiled by the authors based on Fick and Hijmans (2017) and data from WorldClim (2016).
10 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
Annual precipita�on (mm)
Figure 1.6. Annual precipitation (mm), average for 1970-2000. Source: compiled by the authors based on Fick and Hijmans (2017) and data from WorldClim (2016).
north to south, showing a wide spatial diversity, which rang- in high zones, which aggravates the semi-desert conditions es from arid zones, with around 400 mm annually, to some in areas with low precipitation. The warmest season is before areas with over 4,000 mm. With the exception of Costa Rica and after the rainy season. Seasonal temperature variation and Panama, where proximity to the ITCZ means year-round on the coast is 2ºC and in the interior is up to 5ºC and always rain, precipitation presents two clear seasons: the dry, or lower than its daily range (Hijmans et al., 2005). less rainy, season, which starts in November or December, and the humid season, starting in May (Vargas Ulate, 2001). The northern coast of Colombia in the Pacific Ocean is influenced by the western equatorial winds, and due to the Temperatures in Cuba and the Dominican Republic are similar forced ascent on the slopes of the Andes, this gives rise to those of the sea, except in higher zones, and show mini- to one of the rainiest regions on Earth, with over 5000mm mal seasonal variation. Rainfall is conditioned by proximity annually and peaks of up to 7,000 mm (IDEAM, 2015). This to the ITCZ, with a dry season from November to April, which precipitation doesn’t have much annual variation because it generally brings cold fronts. Average annual precipitation is determined by the position of the warm equatorial Pacific varies greatly with orography, from 600 to over 2,000 mm, countercurrent, which remains constant, with little change in with spatial averages of around 1,000 to 1,500 mm (Lecha latitude throughout the year. Estela et al., 1994). Precipitation on the coast and on islands near the Caribbe- an in Colombia and Venezuela vary from 300 mm to over 1.4.1.3. Northern Andean Pacific (NAP) 2,500 mm on some nearby mountain slopes, although it generally falls between 500 mm and 1,500 mm. Spatial The climate in the coastal region is dominated by the circula- variability is due to coastal orientation with respect to trade tion of the South Pacific anticyclone, which causes a strong winds and orography. Seasonal variation is determined by subsidence that inhibits precipitation. The wind component the double passage of the ITCZ; the rainy season occurs from along the coast also contributes to this, producing the emer- May to November and the dry period, or less rainy period in gence of very cold water. Due to both effects, the coastal some areas, from January to April (Snow, 1976). The tem- region between 27ºS and 5ºS is one of the most arid zones perature is high, with an annual average above 25ºC, except on the planet (Johnson, 1976).
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 11 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
Subsidence also produces a temperature inversion, gener- 1.4.1.5. Patagonia ally below 1,000 m in altitude. The humidity in air trapped by temperature inversion and in contact with cold water is Patagonia extends southward from 38ºS, narrowing like a condensed, favoring mist, fog, mist, and stratiforme clouds, wedge between the two great oceans of the hemisphere. In giving rise to the name fog desert. Another effect of the tem- consequence, both daily and annual temperature variations perature inversion is that blocking the vertical mixing of air are not as wide as in other continental regions on similar gives rise to conditions that promote atmospheric pollution, latitudes. Although Patagonia extends meridionally for over which is particularly severe in major cities, especially when 1,500 km, the greatest thermal contrast is due to altitude these are situated in valleys. and greater or lesser proximity to the sea. The air temperature is quite uniform, with little variation in The predominant westerly winds transport humid air from latitude due to the effect of cold coastal waters and skies the ocean and front passages and extratropical cyclones are covered by fog and strata. Toward the interior of the con- frequent. When rising over the mountains, the humid air cools tinent, fog is less frequent, but the higher altitude of the and condenses, which gives rise to abundant cloud cover precordillera mountains prevents the high temperatures that and precipitation, up to over 2,000 mm annually in Chile are common at this latitude (Johnson 1976). and on a narrow strip in Argentina (Inzunza, 2018). Air mass The far north of this region is a transition zone with dry thus loses its humidity and the rest of Argentine Patagonia southern winters and wetter summers. The climate in this only receives dry air from the west. Therefore, in most of zone shows a strong spatial variability as a result of the this region, annual precipitation is less than 200 mm and in orography, marine currents, and rough coastal terrain. The some areas even less than 100 mm. Precipitation is greater cold Peruvian current converges here with the warm El Niño in the northwest and on the Tierra del Fuego island (Barros current. The convergence zone between both currents varies and Camilloni, 2016). depending on the time of year, reaching its southernmost position in late December. This and the El Niño current make conditions in this transition region among the wettest. The 1.4.1.6. Amazonia El Niño phenomenon that covers the entire tropical Pacific, Climate in the Amazon region is determined by the low lat- although it is not periodical, is produced every 3 to 8 years itude and fluctuating position of the ITCZ throughout the and affects the climate in the region, but it also affects year. In the boreal summer, the ITCZ is positioned over the climate in other Ibero-American regions (Ropelewski and southern part of the Caribbean and the northern part of Harpert, 1987). South America, which means that the northern zone of the The climate in the Andean region is highly variable in tem- Amazonia receives heavy precipitation while the rest of the perature, depending on altitude. Some valleys are temperate region is dry, under the effect of compensatory descending in the tropical zone, but in mountain and Puna regions are movements. This is reversed during the southern summer generally dry and cold, with broad temperature variations half due to continental warming. between day and night, which can reach over 25ºC. Precipitation across almost the entire region is greater than 2000 mm annually, reaching over 3,000 mm in the north- eastern region (Figueroa and Nobre, 1990; Marengo et al., 1.4.1.4. Central Andean Pacific 2018b). Average annual temperature is greater than 24ºC The climate in this region is the transition between the and in the middle of the region higher than 27ºC. It generally Patagonia and the NAP region. As the anticyclone of the has little annual variation (Fisch et al., 1998). South Pacific moves 10º in latitude, towards the south in summer and the north in winter, the region remains under its influence in the summer, making it dry. In this season, 1.4.1.7. Northeastern Brazil the atmosphere presents the conditions already described The region of northeastern Brazil is under the influence of for the NAP region. In winter, the region is frequently under the trade winds, especially in coastal areas, and of the ITCZ, the circulation of the westerly winds with passages of which is located in the north of the region between Febru- cold fronts and extratropical cyclones that produce rain- ary and May. This combines with a relief with two mesetas fall in the coastal zones and valleys and snowfall in the and a depression between them that receives little humidity, mountainous zones (Miller, 1976). Due to these seasonal and in the south of the region, anticyclone action from the characteristics, the climate in this region is considered South Atlantic, which penetrates the continent in the winter. Mediterranean. This determines a wide variability of climates which, in gen- In this region, the Andes mountains present elevated alti- eral terms, can be characterized as monsoon-like and, in tudes and numerous glaciers. In these and high zones in the interior, also as semiarid and arid, with average annual general, snow accumulates in winter and melts in spring precipitation below 650 mm at just 200 km from the coast and summer, giving rise to rivers on both sides of the moun- and with high temperatures associated with the latitude. tains. The coastal region receives humidity from the Atlantic, and
12 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
although its precipitation vary geographically, it is generally lower humidity in Amazonia, especially in the winter, reduces above 1,200 mm and in some areas above 2,000 mm. On the contribution of humidity towards the Chaco and towards the coast, under the influence of trade winds, the climate the entire western part of the region. As a consequence, sea- is maritime and during the year the temperature remains at sonal precipitation in the western region from the Pantanal average values of between 24ºC and 26ºC. In the interior the to 38ºS shows monsoon-like characteristics. On the other temperature varies between 18ºC and 22ºC in the south and hand, in the eastern part of the region, due to the availability 24ºC and 28ºC in the north. In both cases, the difference in of water vapor, it rains indiscriminately year-round, although altitude adds spatial variability (Leal de Quadro et al., 2018). with some seasonal variations that are not well defined. The Droughts are recurrent in this region (Marengo et al., 2019, region shows a basically zonal precipitation gradient and to a Brito et al., 2018). lesser degree, meridional with average annual precipitation, decreasing towards the west and south, varying from 2,000 mm in the northeast to less than 100 mm in the far south- 1.4.1.8. Southeast South America west (Barros and Camilloni, 2016).
Southeast South America presents a wide variety of climate conditions that vary based on latitude, altitude, and atmo- 1.4.1.9. Iberian Peninsula spheric circulation. The climate throughout the region is also conditioned by the Andes mountains, which represents a The orography, the surrounding seas, and atmospheric cir- barrier that prevents the exchange of air masses in low levels culation condition the climate of the Iberian Peninsula. The and consequently the sources of humid air for precipitation proximity of the anticyclone of the Azores and its extension are limited to the Amazonia and the Atlantic. into the Sahara cause the predominantly Mediterranean cli- mate in most of the Peninsula. As it migrates north in the As this is a subtropical region with frequent northern winds, summer, it establishes a dry, hot climate, and as it travels winters are moderate and summers are warm. In a region this south in the winter, it brings in the circulation of western vast, average annual temperatures vary across a wide range. winds from the Atlantic, with their cold fronts and extratropi- The warmest zone in January is the Paraguayan Chaco, with cal cyclones and associated precipitations. The exception to an average temperature above 29ºC. In July, the meridional this Mediterranean climate are the regions near the Atlantic gradients are the most important, with temperatures as low and the north, in the Cantabrian Sea, and those neighboring as 8ºC in the southern part of the region, 20ºC in the Para- the Pyrenees, which continue to receive ocean fronts, even guayan Chaco, the Pantanal and in the northernmost part of this region of Brazil (Prohaska, 1976). in summer, although to a lesser degree. During the summer, the most notable feature of the regional The limited access to humid air and the dimensions of the climate is the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). This peninsula favor a continental-type climate inland, with warm is an extension of the Amazonian convective cloud cover in summers and very cold winters that are exacerbated by its the shape of a variable-width band (from 500 to 1,000 km), altitude of near 600 m above sea level. In this region, the which extends southeast to 20ºS and spreads around 1,000 average annual temperature is 12ºC to 17ºC, but can reach km into the Atlantic (Kodama, 1992). The SACZ fluctuates high extremes around 40ºC in the summer and extremes in its intensity, and to a lesser degree in its latitude, and as low as -10ºC in the winter. Galicia, the Cantabrian coast its intense and weak phases last from less than 10 days and the Pyrenees are the coldest, but with more moderate to more than 20 and occasionally 30 days (Nogués-Paegle extremes than in the interior of the peninsula. Despite the and Mo, 1997). When the SACZ is intense, the air reaching winds bringing humidity from the surrounding seas, in many Amazonia travels straight towards it, and when it is weak, it inland zones, the abrupt orography limits its access, which travels towards the Plata basin, feeding its precipitations. gives rise to a semiarid climate and cuts it off in the case of The air that rises when the SACZ is intense is offset by the southeast peninsula arid zone. The semiarid conditions descending movements towards the south, which induces an in the Levant and attenuate further in Catalonia. The regions anticyclonic circulation as an extension of the South Atlantic of northern Portugal and the northern coast from Galicia to Anticyclone until approximately 40ºS and towards the Andes. the Pyrenees are more humid, with over 1,000 mm annually In these conditions, the region south of the SACZ is dry, and (Capel Molina, 2000). when it is in its weak phase, it is rainy. When the SACZ is in its intense phase, anticyclonic circulation carries humid air from the Atlantic towards the west, favoring precipita- 1.4.2. Recent climate changes tions in the Chaco (a vast region extending along western In almost all of Latin America and Iberia, there has been Paraguay and Argentina and eastern Bolivia) and along the an increase in temperature over the past few decades (Fig- hillsides and Precordillera mountain slopes of northern Argen- ure 1.7) (Hartmann et al., 2013). This warming is statisti- tina and southern Bolivia (Doyle and Barros, 2002). cally significant, except in the western coastal zone and in During the rest of the year, circulation from the Atlantic con- the southern part of South America. Cooling has only been tributes humidity in the eastern part of the region, while the detected to a small degree in the coastal zone in southern
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 13 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
and central Chile and in the far south of Patagonia (Falvey territory, the data is insufficient or adequate for estimat- and Garreaud, 2009). The area that has registered the most ing these trends. Even so, some positive trends have been warming is central and northern Mexico (between 0.6ºC and observed in an extensive area of southeast South America 0.9ºC in 30 years). These increases in temperature in terms and some significant trends in the province of Buenos Aires. of continental averages are attributable to human activity, On the other hand, significant reductions in precipitation have as indicated in Figure 10.7 of the IPCC AR5 Report, WGI been registered in the region of Central America and southern (Kirtman et al., 2013). Mexico, in the Iberian Peninsula, particularly in the south and Figure 1.7 also shows the annual precipitation trends east (Rodrigo and Trigo, 2007; De Luis et al., 2009) and in between 1951 and 2010. In a good part of Latin American the region with Mediterranean climate in Chile, where the
-1.25 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1 1.25 Trend (°C per decade)
-100 -50 -25 -10 -5 -2.5 0 2.5 5 10 25 50 100 Trend (mm year-1 per decade)
Figure 1.7. Surface temperature trends (ºC) for the 1981-2012 period (top map, NCDC MLOST dataset) and in annual precipitation (mm year-1 per decade) for the 1951-2010 period (map below, CRU dataset, trends calculated only for the grid with more than 70% of the record complete and more than 20% of the data available in the first and last deciles). The blank areas indicate lack of data. Positive (+) signs indicate grids where the trends are significant with a confidence level of 90%. Source: modified from Figures 2.22 and 2.29 of the WGI report of the AR5 of the IPCC (Hartmann et al., 2013).
14 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
trend has been negative for over 100 years. In southeast Patagonia, as well as some regions of Brazil, where reduc- South America, the positive trend observed was attributable tions below 5% would predominate. In central Argentina and to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations (Vera and Uruguay alone, increases between 5 and 20% are projected, Diaz, 2015). which in some zones would be significant (Figure 1.8). Over the last decades, the combined effect of the changes in In several regions, projections maintain the trends already temperature and precipitation have altered the water balance observed, which lends them greater credibility. This is the in some regions. The most ostensible case is the Iberian Pen- case with the negative precipitation trends in central and insula, where the lower precipitation and higher temperatures southern Chile. It is also true for southern Mexico and north- tend to reduce runoff in some basins (Estrela et al., 2012; ern Central America and the Iberian Peninsula, which together Vicente-Serrano et al., 2014). In these cases the need for with the warming, sets an unfavorable stage for water avail- adaptation measures is evident to address the changes that ability in the next years. On the other hand, projections show have already occurred. The opposite has occurred in a large continuity in part of Argentina and Uruguay, or at least the part of subtropical Argentina (Barros and Camilloni, 2016), maintenance of changes that have already occurred that led where the more humid climate was favorable to agriculture to more humid conditions. and enabled its expansion towards once semiarid zones (Zak Projections of indicators of peak temperatures are consistent et al., 2008). In the Mediterranean climate region of Chile, with those for average temperatures. For example, Figure 1.9 the lower precipitations were also accompanied by higher shows the change in maximum temperature on the hottest temperatures in most of the territory, except in certain coast- day of the year in the 1.5ºC scenario. In the Iberian Penin- al zones (Falvey and Garreaud, 2009). sula and throughout most of Latin America, this temperature Since 1960, unusual temperature extremes have been would rise between 1.5 and 2ºC. This same number shows recorded, whether in magnitude, frequency or both, of warm projected changes for maximum annual precipitations accu- nights and days across Latin America and in the Iberian Pen- mulated over 5 days, which would increase between 0 and insula (Vincent et al., 2005; Fernández-Montes and Rodri- 10% throughout the region with a few exceptions in Chile and go, 2012). This is also the case for intense precipitations Central America. in Latin America (Seneviratne et al., 2012). However, when The heat wave projections are particularly important in the the trends between 1910 and 2010 are calculated, the geo- context of climate change. In a scenario of moderate emis- graphic coherence of the sign of change is unclear, except sions increase, the periods of the year with what today is for Central America and the region east of the Andes in South considered a heat wave would increase towards the end of America, from 15 to 40ºS, where upward trends of intense the century (2018-2100) with respect to the preindustrial precipitation were dominant (Asadich and Krakauer, 2015). period throughout the region; between 60 and 200 days On the Iberian Peninsula, there was an increase in the days more in the region between both tropics, between 60 and with light rain between 1903 and 2003 (Gallego et al., 2011). 90 days in Mexico and the Iberian Peninsula; and from 5 to More recent observations (between 1950-2012) show that 30 days in southern South America (Sillmann et al., 2013). this trend goes hand in hand with another downward one Other important extreme weather events are droughts. The regarding high and very high rainfall events (Serrano-Notivoli number of consecutively dry days for the same time horizon et al., 2018). and scenario is projected to increase throughout the region; in general between 1 and 5 days, except in Brazil and on the 1.4.3. Future climate projections coast of Venezuela, where it would be between 15 and 25 days just like in some zones of Chile, Central America, and The recent IPCC special report on a Global Warming of Mexico (Sillmann et al., 2013). 1.5ºC indicates that between 2030 and 2052, there is a high likelihood of a 1.5ºC warming above preindustrial lev- els (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). If significant reductions 1.5. Biogeography of the region: are not adopted in GHG emissions, this number may reach 2ºC by 2050 or soon thereafter. Both scenarios would be natural systems produced in the planning horizon and therefore they are an important guide for adaptation measures and policies. 1.5.1. Terrestrial systems In the Iberian Peninsula and throughout most of Latin Ameri- ca, warming would be between 1.5 and 2ºC in the 1.5ºC sce- The wide variety of climates and substrates in the RIOCC nario and between 2 and 3ºC in the 2ºC scenario, except in region means that it represents a good part of the biomes the southern part of South America where it would be slightly in the world (Figure 1.10) and a wide diversity within these. lower. In both scenarios, reductions in average precipitation This region includes the largest tropical rain forest in the are projected, generally between 5 and 10% in the Iberian world with the highest biodiversity, such as the Amazonia, Peninsula, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean and its with up to 300 tree species per hectare (Gentry, 1988), the South American coast, and a large part of Chile and Argentine largest wetlands in the world, such as Pantanal (Silva et al.,
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 15 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
Mean temperature change Mean temperature change at 1.5°C GMST warming at 2.0°C GMST warming
Temperature (°C)
0.5 1 1.523468
Mean precipitation change Mean precipitation change at 1.5°C GMST warming at 2.0°C GMST warming
Precipitation (%)
-20 -10 -5 0 5 10 20 30 40 50 * GMST: Global mean surface temperature
Figure 1.8. Change projected in average surface temperature (ºC, up) and in average precipitation (%, down) in the global warming scenarios of surface temperature of 1.5ºC (left) and 2ºC (right) with respect to the preindustrial period (1861-1880). The x-shaded areas mark the grids where at least 18 of 26 models match on the sign of change, as a sign of its robustness. Source: modified from Figure 3.3 of the IPCC special report on 1.5ºC of warming (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018).
1998), or the most extreme deserts on the planet, such as covers 20% of the country. Vegetation varies from low Atacama, with precipitations that barely exceed 2 mm/year tree forests to parks with scattered trees, shrublands, in some zones (Marquet et al., 1998). and grasslands (Oliveira-Filho and Ratter, 2002). This Below is a brief description of the main biomes in the region biome also extends across the Venezuelan Llanos and based on the classification of Olson et al. (2001). The geo- the Guianas, as well as the coastal zone of the west of graphic distribution of the diverse biomes and their differenti- the Gulf of Mexico towards the north. Towards the south, ation in ecological zones (based on this classification) can be we can find the dry or humid hills of the Argentine chaco consulted online at https://ecoregions2017.appspot.com/ and Uruguayan grasslands. Fire plays an important role (Ecoregions, 2017). in maintaining this biome (Lehman et al., 2014). • Tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannas, and shru- • Tropical and subtropical dry broadleaf forests. In tropical blands. This is the second largest biome in size and it is and subtropical areas, sheltered from the rain we find the characterized by tall grasslands, with or without wood- biome of tropical and subtropical dry broadleaf forests, lands, or tall shrubs and short trees that extend across with a wide diversity of ecosystems that vary based on zones with high precipitation, but where the summer dry the degree of drought. Within this biome, we have the season extends for several months a year. The greatest Brazilian Caatinga, which is made up of dry shrublands representation of this biome is in Brazil’s Cerrado, which and thorny trees with small leaves that fall off during the
16 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
Peninsula on the Atlantic side, and in the Greater Antilles, Change in temperature of hottest days (TXx) particularly in Cuba, with the dry Cuban forest. at 1.5°C GMST warming • Tropical and subtropical coniferous forests. These are made up of pine trees and leafy trees and extend from the mountains of Nicaragua to the north of Mexico, occu- pying a good part of the volcanic belt, the Sierra Madre del Sur and Sierra Madre Occidental in this country. Vege- tation varies from mostly pine forests to mixed forests where oaks (genus Quercus) and madrones (Arbutus) are abundant (González-Elizondo et al., 2012). This biome is also represented in Hispaniola. • Tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests. In Ecua- dor, both towards the north and towards the south, we Temperature (°C) find the biome of tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf 0.5 1 1.523468 forests, or tropical rain forest, in zones where rain is present throughout the year or most of it. Its greatest Change in extreme precipitation (Rx5day) representation is in the Amazon river basin. Precipitation at 1.5°C GMST warming oscillates between 2,000 and 3,500 mm (Fisch et al., 1998), but in some zones it is higher than 6000 mm and can reach 9000 mm (Espinoza Villar et al., 2009). This type of vegetation also extends along the Pacific coast of Ecuador and Colombia, the Isthmus of Pana- ma, especially along the eastern side, towards Veracruz, in southern Mexico, and in the Greater Antilles (Cuba, Dominican Republic). To the south of Ecuador, beyond Amazonia, it extends across the Atlantic coast of Brazil and inland towards the Northern Paraná Basin, where the Iguazú river basin is its southernmost representati- ve in the Misiones province (Argentina). There is a wide diversity of forests within this biome, from the most pure Precipitation (%) broadleaf forests, with heights of 50 meters and multiple -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 strata, to the Araucaria forests in eastern Brazil.
Figure 1.9. Change projected in the maximum temperature on the • Flooded grasslands and savannas. Wetlands have their hottest day of the year (ºC, top map) and in the highest precipitation maximum representation in the Pantanal, which is an of the year accumulated over 5 days (%, lower map) for the global alluvial plain with periodical flooding, forming the largest warming scenario of 1.5ºC with respect to the preindustrial period wetlands in the world (Silva et al., 1998). It has a surface (1861-1880). The x-shaded areas mark the grids where at least area of 350,000 km2, mostly affecting Brazil (state of 18 of 26 models match on the sign of change, as a sign of its Mato Grosso do Sul) and parts of Bolivia and Paraguay. robustness. Source: modified from Figure 3.4 of the IPCC special This biome extends into Argentina with the Southern Cone report on 1.5ºC warming (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). Mesopotamian savannas, and its largest representation is in the Iberá Wetlands and the flooded savannas of the Paraná River. • Temperate grasslands, savannas and shrublands. Low long dry season, as well as cacti and other succulents. shrub and grass formation. One of the most typical repre- Precipitation is less than 1,000 mm, which falls over a sentations of this biome is the Humid Pampas, formed by short period of time (3 to 6 months) and with a very high tall grasses with sporadic trees (carob trees) generally in annual variability, giving rise to prolonged periods of drou- flatlands. This extends through central Argentina and is ght (Veloso et al., 2012). This biome can also be found in the most populated area in the country (Soriano, 1991). the interior of the South American continent, on the border On the northern, western, and southern borders of this with Amazonia, extending along southern Bolivia (Chiqui- region, precipitation is lower, giving rise to thorny plant tano forest), Brazil (states of Mato Groso do Sul and Ron- formations, characterized by scrubland, spiny formations donia), Peru (departments of Tumbes and Piura, on the and hard grasses. Towards the south, from the Andes Pacific coast), the coast of Ecuador and in the Colombian to the Atlantic, we can find scrublands, arid vegetation and Venezuelan Caribbean. In Central and North America, formed by thorny scrubs and hard grasses. Finally, at the this biome is on the western part of the Isthmus of Pana- southern tip of the continent, we find the Patagonian ste- ma, extending into southern Mexico, and in the Yucatan ppe, formed by low shrubs and grasses commonly found
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 17 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
Biomes Tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannas, and shrublands Tropical and subtropical dry broadleaf forests Tropical and subtropical coniferous forests Tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests Flooded grasslands and savannas Temperate grasslands, savannas and shrublands Temperate broadleaf and mixed forests Montane grasslands and shrublands Mediterranean forests, woodlands and scrubs Deserts and xeric shrublands Mangroves
0 1,500 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 km
Figure 1.10. Distribution of the main biomes in Latin America and the Iberian Peninsula. Source: compiled by the authors based on Olson et al. (2001), data from Ecoregions (2017).
in arid, cold environments, with frost occurring practically level, with types of vegetation differentiated by latitude any time of the year, as well as intense, relentless winds based on temperature and precipitation (paramo, puna, (Soriano, 1983). monte). In the tropical environment (between 11ºN and 8ºS) on the northeastern part of the South American con- • Temperate broadleaf and mixed forests. On the South tinent, in high mountain areas (generally above 2,800- American continent, in central southern Chile and parts 3,200 m in altitude), the snow line between forest and of Argentina, we can find a multistratified evergreen plant permanent snow is home to psychrophytic vegetation formation in a temperate ocean environment with abun- with a predominance of grasses, dwarf trees and giant dant precipitation, known as the Valdivian forest or jungle. rosette plants, known as paramo. This area extends This is the only presence of temperate rainforest on the across the northern Andes in Venezuela, Colombia, and continent (Armesto et al., 1991). In the northern part of Ecuador, including a small area in northern Peru and in the Iberian Peninsula we find forests of deciduous winter the Talamanca mountains (Costa Rica, Panama) (Kappe- beech and oak trees that extend from western Spain and lle, 2005; Morrone, 2001). Further south, in other high northern Portugal into France (Blanco et al., 1997). Fina- mountain areas and the Altiplano of the Central Andes, we lly, in southern Chile and Argentina, we find Magellanic can find formations of montane pastures containing tus- subpolar forests running from north to south into Tierra socks, low shrubs, trees, and herbaceous plants known del Fuego. These include diverse species of Nothofagus, as puna. It covers portions of central and southern Peru, with three unique types of vegetation: evergreen rain western Bolivia, northern Chile and northwestern Argenti- forests, deciduous forests, and in areas with heavy pre- na. There are three different types of puna: humid in the cipitation, Magellanic moorland (Armesto et al., 1991). north, sub-humid in the center and dry in the south. The • Montane grasslands and shrublands. This biome is well foothills of the Andes on the Argentine side up to 2,800 represented in mountainous areas at high elevations, m are covered with an arid formation of brush, cacti, and especially in South America, above the closed forest grasses (Morrone, 2001) which connects with the puna,
18 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
chaco, and Patagonian steppe. At the southernmost tip California, in Baja California (Yáñez-Arancibia and Lara-Do- of South America, at the upper limit of the forest (from mínguez, 2001). This report includes this biome in the 600 m upwards), there are formations of high Andean Tie- chapter on coastal and marine ecosystems, although for rra del Fuego tundra (Tuhkanen, 1992), characterized by convenience sake it has been represented on this map of plants with cushioned growth, creeping ligneous plants land systems, based on criteria from Olson et al. (2001). and communities of saxicolous cryptogams with a strong affinity with the flora in the Maritime Antarctic region (Redón and Quilhot, 1977). 1.5.2. Continental Aquatic Systems
• Mediterranean forests, woodlands, and scrubs. This biome RIOCC countries comprise a wide diversity of continental extends across the temperate zones of the western side aquatic ecosystems. According to the classification of Abell of the continents, both in the southern (central Chile) et al. (2008), based on the distribution and composition of fish and northern (northern Baja California, Mexico) hemis- species, up to 81 different ecoregions can be distinguished phere and most of the Iberian Peninsula. The climate is (24 in Mexico, 17 in Central America and the Caribbean, 52 Mediterranean, with a clearly marked seasonality, with in South America and 4 in the Iberian Peninsula). Although cool humid winters and warm dry summers. Vegetation each of these ecoregions contains patches of multiple habitat includes mostly open forests, with small-leaved short types, the classification into “major habitat types” refers to evergreen and sclerophyllous trees and low or high shru- the predominant habitat. The “major habitat types” (Figure blands, which are known by different names (chaparral in 1.11) reflect groupings of ecoregions with similar biological, California, matorral in Chile, garriga, madroñal or matorral chemical, and physical characteristics, providing a tool that in general in the Iberian Peninsula) (Di Castri and Moo- facilitates the implementation of conservation and investiga- ney, 1973). The Iberian Peninsula has an abundance of tion strategies on different scales (Abell et al., 2008). conifers (Pinus), from lowlands to high mountain areas; in the intermediate, more humid mountain regions, there Below is a brief description of the major freshwater habitat is an abundance of deciduous broadleaf forests (Blanco types and ecoregions that can be found in the region (Abell et al., 1997). Human transformation has given rise to et al., 2008; FEOW, 2015). open forest, savanna-like grassland formations known • Montane freshwaters. Ecoregions comprised of small as dehesas in Spain or montados in Portugal (Joffe et streams, rivers, lakes, or wetlands at higher elevations, al., 1999). Fire has been an evolutionary agent across regardless of latitude. These are generally high gradient, all Mediterranean-type regions, except Chile (Rundel et relatively shallow, fast-flowing streams, with montane cli- al., 2018). Human transformation of the territory makes mate conditions, and may include rapids or complexes of fire a current dominant feature in all of these (Urbieta et high-altitude wetlands and lakes. In South America, this al., 2015; Urrutia-Jalabert, 2018). includes the ecoregions of Orinoco High Andes, Orinoco • Deserts and dry shrublands. We can find this biome on Piedmont, Ucayali-Urubamba Piedmont and Cuyan-Des- the Pacific coast, from the Sechura Desert in northwest aguadero. Peru, the departments of Piura and Labayeque, to the • Tropical and subtropical upland rivers. Ecoregions that Atacama Desert (Chile), covering a stretch of 1600 km. are dominated and defined by low-latitude non-floodplain Atacama is the world’s driest non-polar desert, with an rivers, including headwater drainages and tributaries of lar- average annual precipitation barely over 2 mm (Marquet ge river systems. These rivers are characterized by mode- et al., 1998). This biome can be found in the northern rate gradients and absence of a cyclically flooded, fringing hemisphere in the Caribbean and above all in Mexico, in floodplain. In Central America this includes the Usumacinta the Sonora desert, which extends across the states of River. In South America it includes the river systems of Sonora, which is where its name comes from, Chihuahua Magdalena-Sinu, Orinoco Guiana Shield, Essequibo, Guia- and Baja California. nas, Amazonas Guiana Shield, Mamore-Madre de Dios Piedmont, Guapore-Iténez, Tapajos-Juruena, Madeira Bra- • Mangroves. This is a tree formation that develops in zilian Shield, Tocantins-Araguaia, Parnaiba, San Francisco, sheltered shores (inlets, marshes, estuaries) in interti- Lower Uruguay, Upper Uruguay and Upper Paraná. dal zones (between high and low tide), in areas near the mouth of rivers and freshwater currents, with soft soils • Tropical and subtropical floodplain rivers and wetlands. (sand, silt or clay, never rocky), in tropical and subtropical Ecoregions that are dominated by a single low-latitude areas. The dominant trees in these formations have a large river system, including the main stem river drainage high tolerance to salt. Their greatest representation can and associated sub-basins, which are either currently or be found on the Atlantic coast, extending from southern were historically characterized by a cyclically flooded, Brazil to the Caribbean, including its islands, the Yucatan fringing floodplain. These ecoregions may also contain Peninsula and the Gulf of Mexico. These are less repre- wetland complexes composed of internal deltas, mars- sented on the Pacific coast due to the particularly arid hes, and/or swamps, associated with the main river sys- conditions of the Peruvian coast. These extend from the tem. In South America, this includes Orinoco Llanos, Rio far north of Peru (3º 30’) to the west coast of the Gulf of Negro, Amazon Lowlands, Chaco and Paraguay.
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 19 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
Major habitat types Montane freshwaters Tropical and subtropical upland rivers
Tropical and subtropical floodplain rivers and wetlands
Tropical and subtropical coastal rivers Large river deltas Xeric freshwaters and endorheic basins Temperate upland rivers Temperate floodplain rivers and wetlands Temperate coastal rivers Large lakes Oceanic islands
0 1,500 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 km
Figure 1.11. Distribution of the major continental aquatic habitat types in Latin America and the Iberian Peninsula. Source: compiled by the authors based on Abell et al. (2008), data from FEOW (2015).
• Tropical and subtropical coastal rivers. Ecoregions domi- their associated fish faunas, which are distinctive from nated by several small to medium coastal basins at low those occurring upstream. In South America these include latitudes (tropics). These ecoregions are characterized by the ecoregions of the Orinoco Delta and Coastal Draina- riverine ecosystems but may also contain small lakes, ges, the Amazon stuary and Coastal Drainages. coastal lagoons, and other wetlands. Although floodplains may occur, the dominant features are numerous, small to • Xeric freshwaters and endorheic (closed) basins. Ecore- medium-sized basins that drain to the ocean, instead of gions dominated by endorheic aquatic systems or fres- one large river predominating with an extensive fringing hwaters that are found in arid, semi-arid, or dry sub-humid floodplain. This also encompasses island ecoregions with environments. These ecosystems tend to have specific these characteristics. In Mexico this includes the ecore- fauna adapted to ephemeral and intermittent flooding gions of Sinaloa, Rio Santiago, Panuco, Ameca-Manantlan, regimes or lower water levels during certain times of the Rio Balsas, Sierra Madre del Sur, Papaloapan, Coatzacoal- year. In South America, these include the ecoregions of cos, Grijalva-Usumacinta and Yucatan. In Central America Atacama, the Central Andean Pacific Slopes, Mar Chiqui- and the Caribbean, this includes the ecoregions of Chia- ta-Salinas Grandes; and in Mexico this includes the eco- pas-Fonseca, Quintana Roo-Motagua, Mosquitia, Estero regions of Baja California, Sonora, Guzman-Samalayuca, Real-Tempisque, San Juan, Chiriqui, Isthmus Caribbean, Rio Conchos, Mayran-Viesca, Rio Salado, Rio San Juan, Santa Maria, Chagres, Rio Tuira, Cuba and Hispaniola. In Llanos El Salado, Cuatro Ciénegas, and Lerma-Chapala. South America, it includes the desert ecoregions of Sechu- • Temperate upland rivers Ecoregions that are dominated ra and Rio Atrato, South America Caribbean Drainages-Trini- and defined by mid-latitude non-floodplain rivers, inclu- dad, Parnaiba, Northeastern Caatinga, Northeastern Mata ding headwater drainages and tributaries of large river Atlantica, Paraiba do Sul, Ribeira de Iguape, Southeastern systems. These rivers are characterized by moderate Mata Atlantica, Tramandai–Mampituba and Fluminense. gradients and absence of a cyclically flooded, fringing • Large river deltas. Ecoregions that are dominated and floodplain. In Mexico, this includes the Upper Rio Gran- defined by deltaic features (e.g., tidal influences) and de-Bravo border ecoregion.
20 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
• Temperate floodplain rivers and wetlands. Ecoregions that concentrations of plankton, similar to temperate zones. are dominated by a single mid-latitude large river system, By contrast, the southern region is a tropical zone, with including the main stem river drainage and associated warm crystalline waters, dominated by stone corals with sub-basins, which are either currently or were historically zooxanthellae. The intermediate region has a mixture of characterized by a cyclically flooded, fringing floodplain. oceanographic conditions between the North and South These ecoregions may also contain wetland complexes regions, which is reflected in the composition of its fauna. composed of internal deltas, marshes, and/or swamps, The fish fauna seems to respond to a more anthropo- associated with the main river system. In Mexico, this genic pressure, due to the fact that there is a decrease includes the border ecoregion of Lower Rio Grande-Bra- in the biomass of fish with high trophic levels in areas vo, and in South America, it includes the Lower Paraná with unregulated fishing. The Pacific coastal zone of the ecoregion. Baja California peninsula faces the same climate transi- tion between temperate and tropical zones, generating • Temperate coastal rivers. Ecoregions that are dominated a north-south gradient; Additionally, the influence of the by several small to medium coastal basins in mid-latitu- California Current confers a high productivity of organism des (temperate). These ecoregions are characterized by biomass, although it is not as diverse as observed within riverine ecosystems but may also contain small lakes, the Gulf of California (Ulate et al., 2018 and 2016). coastal lagoons, and other wetlands. Migratory species that spend part of their life cycles within marine environ- • Tropical East Pacific Province The tropical east Pacific pro- ments may inhabit these ecoregions. Although floodp- vince extends from the south end of the Sea of Cortez, lains may occur, the dominant features are numerous, Mexico, to the far north of Peru and includes the oceanic small to medium-sized basins that drain to the ocean, islands of Revillagigedo, Clipperton, Cocos Island, Mal- instead of one large river predominating with an extensive pelo and Galápagos. This is a region of the Pacific Ocean fringing floodplain. This also encompasses island ecore- exposed to extreme temperatures due to the seasonal gions with these characteristics. In South America, this upwelling of cold water and the warm waters carried by includes the ecoregions of Patagonia, Valdivian Lakes, El Niño. Coral reefs, mangroves, and marine beds of the Bonaerensean Drainage and the South Andean Pacific American Pacific are in this region. This part of the Pacific Slopes. On the Iberian Peninsula, this includes Southern, Ocean is characterized by its relatively low salinity and Eastern and Western Iberia and the Cantabrian Coast. low pH (Glynn et al., 2017). • Large lakes. Ecoregions that are dominated and defined • Warm Temperate Southeastern Pacific Province The mari- by large lentic (closed waterbodies) systems. Freshwater time zone of this region is unusually cold due to the ecosystems in these ecoregions may include in-flowing outcropping of nutrient-rich cold water that increases bio- and out-flowing rivers and various peripheral wetlands in logical production, reaching up to 10% of global fishing. addition to the lakes themselves. In South America, this The ecosystem is subject to interannual and multi-decade includes the Maracaibo ecoregion. fluctuations caused by remote drivers from the equato- rial Pacific. Furthermore, the sinking and decomposition • Oceanic islands. Ecoregions comprised of one or more of the primary production, together with low ventilation islands completely surrounded by water, above high tide, results in a shallow zone with minimum oxygen, which and isolated from other significant landmasses. These concentrates animals close to the surface and serves ecoregions are characterized by freshwater biotas derived as a shelter for other organisms (Chávez et al., 2008). from marine ancestors. In South America, this includes the ecoregions of Cocos Island, Galápagos Islands, Juan • Juan Fernández and Desventuradas Province. The Juan Fernández Island and Rapa Nui (Easter Island). Fernández archipelago and Desventuradas islands are located in the central zone of the anticyclone circulation in the South Pacific. The water column is made up of 1.5.3. Coastal and marine systems three water masses: Subantarctic Mode (SAMW), Equa- torial Subsurface (ESSW), and Antarctic Intermediate Marine territories adjacent to RIOCC countries can be clas- (AAIW). In the Desventuradas Islands zone, the surface sified into thirteen biogeographical provinces (Figure 1.12). water mass is subtropical and is underlain by the SAMW Each of these provinces can be subdivided into ecoregions and ESSW. In this zone, the ocean circulation consists or grouped together with others in biogeographical realms. of the Humboldt Current System, characterized by cold For more details see Spalding et al. (2007). water flowing north and a southward flow (Peru-Chile Current) (Mujica and Pavez 2008). • Warm Temperate Northeast Pacific Province The Gulf of California, considered a semi-closed sea with unique • Easter Island Province. This province includes Easter oceanographic conditions, confers a very unique dis- Island or Rapa Nui and Isla Sala y Gómez, which form tribution on its fauna, especially sessile fauna, which part of Chile. These islands are among the most isolated must adapt to the peculiar conditions of temperature in the world. They are volcanic in origin and the marine and food availability. The northernmost region, domina- floors are covered in corals that are related to the Tropical ted by octocorals, is influenced by cold waters and high East Pacific Province. The original inhabitants were Poly-
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 21 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
11 13 1 10
2 9 12
Province 1. Warm temperate NE Pacific 2. Tropical E Pacific 3 8 3. Warm temperate SE Pacific 4. Juan Fernández and Desventuradas 5. Easter Island 6. Magellanic 4 7. Warm temperate SW Atlantic 5 7 8. Tropical SW Atlantic 9. N Brazilian shelf 10. Tropical NW Atlantic 11. Warm Temperate NW Atlantic 6 12. Lusitania 13. Mediterranean Sea
0 1,500 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 km
Figure 1.12. Biogeographical marine provinces for the region. Source: compiled by the authors from the world ecoregion map (Spalding et al., 2007) with modifications (the provinces of Galápagos and tropical east Pacific were unified based on Glynn et al., 2017), data from MEOW (2007).
nesian. Sala y Gómez is a deserted, little visited island discharge (Río de la Plata, Laguna de los Patos) and (Glynn et al., 2017). important RAMSAR areas. This includes the ecoregions of southeast Brazil, Río Grande, Río de la Plata, and the • Magellanic Province The Magellanic Province comprises continental shelf of Uruguay-Buenos Aires, characterized the area between parallels 35°S and 56°S. The biologi- by a mix of subtropical (warm) and subantarctic (cold) cal diversity of the marine ecosystem in the Magellanic fauna, with a significant diversity of fish, invertebrates, Province is one of the most productive of all the world’s and colonies of marine mammals and birds. oceans. In the system comprised of the Pacific Ocean side, we identified pelagic upwelling regions (30º-42º S) • Tropical Southwestern Atlantic Province This region covers and a southern fjord region (42º–55ºS). For the benthic close to half of the Brazilian coastline, from southeastern system, this covers the area from the island of Chiloe to northeastern Brazil, from the state of Rio de Janeiro to to Cape Horn. Regarding the Atlantic Ocean, the provin- the state of Ceará. Around 130 million people (60% of ce contains the two deepest gulfs in the southwestern the Brazilian population) live along this coastline in the Atlantic, the San Matías Gulf and Golfo Nuevo. However, main metropolitan hubs in the country. Coastal vegeta- the limits of these biogeographical regions are not fixed tion consists of sandy plains with what are known as and may vary seasonally and interannually. restingas (very shallow sand banks) and an abundance of mangroves. Both formations belong to the hot point of • Warm Temperate Southwestern Atlantic Province The biodiversity of the Atlantic jungle (Scarano and Ceotto, Warm Temperate SW Atlantic Province is situated between 2015; Rezende et al., 2018). Marine ecosystems are 42.3ºS (Valdes Peninsula) and 20ºS (Cabo Frío), with rich in fish, coral, and plant species diversity, including seasonal and interannual variations at its limits, corres- rhodoliths. ponding to a transition province between a cold zone (Magellanic) and another warm one (Tropical Atlantic). • North Brazilian Shelf Province This region covers the nor- It has areas with elevated oceanic productivity (Malvi- thern portion of Brazil (states of Maranhão, Pará, and nas-Brazil confluence) and coastal zones with freshwater Amapá) and the Guaianas. The main characteristic of this
22 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
region is the abundance of mangroves and marshes that from Atlantic waters. The Alboran Sea, which has a signi- store significant amounts of carbon. The largest continual ficant influence on the surface of water from the Atlantic, mangrove formation is found between the states of Pará is a crossroads with Atlantic species, both cold (from and Maranhão, with a total of 6,500 km, representing the European coast) and warm (from the African coast) up to 4.3% of all global mangrove cover. This coastal waters, together with Mediterranean species and diverse zone includes some metropolitan regions of Brazil and endemisms exclusive to the area (Templado et al., 2012; the Guianas, but it does not reach the population levels Gomes et al., 2018). of the eastern and southern coast of Brazil (Marone et al., 2012). • Tropical Northwestern Atlantic Province This comprises 1.6. Socioeconomic framework the Atlantic coast of southern Florida and the Bahamas, the southern Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea. It Ibero-American countries make up a network of nations on has a considerable spatial and seasonal heterogenei- both sides of the Atlantic. In addition to numerous native ty with a complex geological history and geographical languages, they share the second (Spanish) and sixth (Por- diversity in the hydrological, morphological, and habitat tuguese) most commonly spoken languages in the world. regimes. The climate of the marine surface has tropi- These countries share many other historical, cultural, and cal and subtropical characteristics; the fauna is unique economic ties. They also have a common space for political to warm temperate waters. It comprises the Gulf, Loop, coordination and cooperation, the Ibero-American Summits and Caribbean currents. It is exposed to frequent storm of Heads of State and Government, with an Ibero-American fronts and hurricanes; its depth varies from 200 m to over General Secretariat (SEGIB) that acts as a permanent sup- 3,000 m. The main community types and subtypes are porting body. There are different forums within this cooper- deltaic systems, coastal lagoons, estuaries, mangrove ation framework, such as meetings with the Ibero-American forests, marine beds, coral reefs, sand banks, and a habi- Environment Ministers. These meetings led to the creation tat matrix of soft consolidated floors, caves, and cracks. of the Red Iberoamericana de Oficinas de Cambio Climático 2 Productivity is moderately high (150-300 g C/m /year) (Ibero-American Network of Climate Change Offices or RIOCC) (Miloslavich et al., 2010; GEF/UNDP, 2013). for cooperation on climate change adaptation and mitigation • Warm Temperate Northwestern Atlantic Province This pro- issues. vince extends along the northern Gulf of Mexico and the southern part of the east coast of United States. The Gulf of Mexico section is characterized by the presence 1.6.1. Demography and structure of the Mississippi River Delta. The east coast of Florida of the population and Georgia is bathed by the Gulf Stream and there is a biotic connection with the Gulf of Mexico and the Carib- RIOCC countries have a total of 678.9 million people. Half of bean. This region has barrier islands and is exposed to this population belongs to the two most populated countries hurricanes. in Ibero-America: Brazil (with 209.3 million people) and Mex- • Lusitanian Province. This province comprises the Atlantic ico (with 129.2 million people) (Table 1.2). It is precisely in coasts of the Iberian Peninsula from the Bay of Biscay the most populated countries in the region that the population to the Gulf of Cádiz, as well as the Canaries, Azores, and is particularly concentrated in urban settlements, account- Madeira archipelagos. The Cantabrian coast is characte- ing for 80-90%, in contrast with an increasingly diminishing rized by a narrow shelf formed by cliffs, with a certain rural population, even when accounting for regional differ- Mediterranean quality due to its higher temperature. The ences. The population in Ibero-America has recently changed Galician coast is colder, due to outcroppings that bring from a society heavily focused on rural activities, based on nutrients from the floor and make it highly productive. The agriculture and livestock, to a more urban one, employed in Portuguese coast has a narrow shelf and is also affected industry and the service sector. However, there are still some by seasonal outcroppings from June to October. The sou- countries with a high rural population, with numbers similar thern coast of Portugal and Spain is somewhat narrower to the global average (45.2%), particularly in Central America with loamy floors. The Canary waters are influenced by (Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua) (Table 1.2). the Saharan cold water outcropping and tropical elements Life expectancy is relatively high, although there are also are seen in the westernmost islands (Templado et al., regional differences. In countries like Spain, Portugal, and 2012; Gomes et al., 2018). Costa Rica, life expectancy exceeds 80 years, whereas in • Mediterranean Sea Province. This covers an area from the other countries it is closer to the global average of 72.2 Straight of Gibraltar to the French border and the Balearic years (Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and Paraguay) or Islands. The water temperature is warm and salinity is below this (Bolivia) (Table 1.2). The population growth rates higher than in the Atlantic. The warmest waters are in the are generally low, varying from negative numbers (Portugal southeast, dropping in temperature towards the Catalan and Andorra) or very low (Cuba and Spain) to numbers above coast and southward, in this case due to the influence the global average (1.2%), such as Guatemala (2%). There
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 23 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
Table 1.2. Demographic aspects of RIOCC countries: total population (millions of people); population growth rate (% annually); rural population (% of the total population); urban population (% of the total population); life expectancy at birth (years); and fertility rate (births per woman). Source: compiled by the authors based on World Bank data from 2017 (World Bank, 2019a) for all countries except Andorra, whose data was obtained from the Government of Andorra (2018). Total population Fertility rate Population growth Rural population Urban population Life expectancy (millions of (births per rate (% annually) (%) (%) at birth (years) people) woman) Andorra 0.07 -0.4 11.9 88.2 81.8 1.13 Argentina 44.3 1.0 8.3 91.7 76.7 2.3 Bolivia 11.1 1.5 30.9 69.1 69.5 2.8 Brazil 209.3 0.8 13.7 86.3 75.7 1.7 Chile 18.1 0.8 12.5 87.5 79.7 1.8 Colombia 49.1 0.8 19.6 80.4 74.6 1.8 Costa Rica 4.9 1.0 21.4 78.6 80.0 1.8 Cuba 11.5 0.1 23.0 77.0 79.9 1.7 Ecuador 16.6 1.5 36.3 63.7 76.6 2.5 El Salvador 6.4 0.5 28.7 71.3 73.8 2.1 Spain 46.6 0.2 19.9 80.1 83.3 1.3 Guatemala 16.9 2.0 49.3 50.7 73.7 2.9 Honduras 9.3 1.7 43.5 56.5 73.8 2.4 Mexico 129.2 1.3 20.1 79.9 77.3 2.2 Nicaragua 6.2 1.1 41.7 58.3 75.7 2.2 Panama 4.1 1.6 32.6 67.4 78.2 2.5 Paraguay 6.8 1.3 38.7 61.3 73.2 2.5 Peru 32.2 1.2 22.3 77.7 75.2 2.4 Portugal 10.3 -0.2 35.3 64.7 81.1 1.4 Dominican Republic 10.8 1.1 19.7 80.3 74.0 2.4 Uruguay 3.5 0.4 4.8 95.2 77.6 2.0 Venezuela 32.0 1.3 11.8 88.2 74.7 2.3 Global 7,529.7 1.2 45.2 54.8 72.2 2.4
are certain parallels between these population growth rates tion systems for girls and boys have reduced mother-child and fecundity rates, which on average are around 2.1, i.e., mortality. The basic scenario of diseases in Latin Amer- right at the replacement rate, although most countries (57%) ica has shifted from infectious-gastrointestinal diseases are above this and the rest are right around this value or and malnutrition-related diseases, which are a direct con- even below the replacement rate (33%) (Table 1.2) (World sequence of underdevelopment, to chronic-degenerative Bank, 2019a). diseases, where obesity is a predominant factor in morbid- ity and mortality. The Iberian Peninsula also has a higher The improvement of services in urban areas (potable water and incidence of cancer and diabetes due to an increase in sanitation), hygiene, health, education, and access to better the elderly population, but also because of a shift in diet quality food has led to an longer life expectancy among the from legumes, fruit, and vegetables to prepared food with population, first in the Iberian Peninsula and then in southeast higher levels of sugar, carbohydrates, and meat (NASEM, Latin America, with the rest of the countries following this 2019). The scenario in Mexico in this regards is grim, as it trend, but without such a marked aging of the population. has become the greatest global sugar consumer (followed This aging process has impacted public spending and social by Central America), due primarily to the consumption of security. Retirement age has increased in several countries to sugary sodas, with a subsequent increase in diabetes and offset this increase in life expectancy (ECLAC, 2018). high sanitary costs that also affect the younger population, In terms of mortality and morbidity, medical advancements, with severe repercussions in their development (Díaz-Car- fully equipped hospitals, health professionals, and vaccina- reño et al., 2016).
24 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
1.6.2. Economy lower-middle income group (Bolivia, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua), given that none of them form part of the On an economic and development level, there are differenc- low-income group. The rest are in the upper-middle income es between the different countries within the Ibero-Ameri- group (World Bank, 2019b). There are other development can community (Table 1.3). While some countries form part indexes that consider other variables beyond a strictly of organizations that group together the most developed monetary analysis. These include the human development economies in the world or emerging market economies (like index (HDI), which considers health and education indica- Spain, Portugal, Mexico, and Chile, which are OECD mem- tors in addition to per capita GDP (UNDP, 2018). Based bers; or like Brazil, member of BRICS), most belong to the on the 2017 UNDP HDI global ranking, six of the RIOCC group of developing countries. Based on the World Bank countries have a “very high” human development level, classification, only seven of the 22 RIOCC countries are half have a “high” level, and the remaining five have a classified as high-income economies (Andorra, Chile, Pan- “medium” level. According to this classification, no RIOCC ama, Portugal, Spain, and Uruguay). On the opposite end countries are included in the “low” human development of the spectrum, four of the 22 countries form part of the group (Table 1.3).
Table 1.3. Economic aspects in RIOCC countries. Source: compiled by the authors with the most recently available data from 2013-2017 from the World Bank, 2019a and ECLAC (2019b) websites and the UNDP report (2018). HDI (human GDP Per capita HDI global Extreme development Gini Index Poverty (%) (USD x 109) GDP (USD) ranking poverty (%) index) Andorra 3.0 39,147 0.900 35 ...... Argentina 637.4 14,398 0.825 47 40.6 (a) 25.7 (a) .. Bolivia 37.5 3,394 0.693 118 46.7 (b) 36.4 (c) 17.1 (c) Brazil 2,053.6 9,812 0.759 79 51.3 (b) 26.5 (a) .. Chile 277.1 15,346 0.843 44 47.7 (b) 8.6 (c) 2.3 (c) Colombia 314.5 6,409 0.747 90 51.1 (b) 26.9 (c) 7.4 (c) Costa Rica 57.3 11,677 0.794 63 48.4 (b) 20 (c) 5.7 (c) Cuba 96.9 8,433 0.777 73 ...... Ecuador 104.3 6,273 0.752 86 46 (b) 21.5 (c) 7.9 (c) El Salvador 24.8 3,889 0.674 121 40.6 (b) 29.2 (c) 6.2 (c) Spain 1,314.3 28,208 0.891 26 36.2 (b) 22.3 (h) .. Guatemala 75.6 4,471 0.65 127 55.3 (f) .. .. Honduras 23.0 2,480 0.617 133 49.6 (b) 64.3 (a) 38.4 (d) Mexico 1,150.9 8,910 0.774 74 49.1 (f) 50.6 (d) 17.5 (d) Nicaragua 13.8 2,222 0.658 124 .. 24.9 (d) 6.9 (d) Panama 62.3 15,196 0.789 66 50.8 (b) 20.7 (c) 9.8 (c) Paraguay 39.7 5,824 0.702 110 47.6 (b) 26.4 (c) 4.41 (c) Peru 211.4 6,572 0.75 89 43.4 (b) 21.7 (c) 3.8 (c) Portugal 219.3 21,291 0.847 41 35.5 (b) 19 (h) .. Dominican Republic 75.9 7,052 0.736 94 45.2 (b) 28.4 (d) 5.6 (d) Uruguay 56.2 16,246 0.804 55 40.2 (b) 7.9 (c) 0.1 (c) Venezuela .. .. 0.761 78 40.07 (g) 33.1 (e) 9.3 (e) Notes to Table. [1] Note on the source and years of data collection. GDP at current prices (in billions of United States dollars, USD) and per capita GDP at current prices (in thousands of USD), based on 2017 WB data. HDI, UNEP human development index, and global HDI ranking, based on 2017 UNDP data. Gini inequality index, poverty (%), and population living in extreme poverty (%): (a) 2017 WB data; (b) 2015 WB data; (c) 2017 ECLAC data; (d) 2016 ECLAC data; (e) 2015 ECLAC data; (f) 2014 ECLAC data; (g) 2013 ECLAC data; (h) 2016 Eurostat data. [2] Note on the HDI global ranking: very high development level for positions 1-59, high for positions 60-112, medium for positions 113-151, and low for positions 152-189. [3] Note on poverty (%): poverty data is based on national sources, with the exception of Spain and Portugal. In these cases, risk of poverty data based on national sources is used. Unavailable data is indicated by two points (..).
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 25 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
Over the past six decades, the GDP growth rate reflects of Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC, 2019), despite diverse global and regional socioeconomic crises, as well significant progress since the beginning of the 2000 decade. as the detachment of the economies of the Iberian coun- In the region, poverty is higher in rural areas than in urban tries and the rest of Ibero-America (Figure 1.13). Iberian areas. It is higher among women than men. It is correlated countries underwent profound crises in 1975, 1993, and with age (poverty is greater in the younger age brackets) and between 2008-2013 and in 2015 they were just beginning ethnicity (the poverty rate is almost double among indige- to recover from the last major crisis. As a whole, Latin Amer- nous peoples and Afro-descendants) (ECLAC, 2019). Spain ican countries underwent recessions in 1983 and 2008, the and Portugal rank 8th and 11th, respectively, in the “people latter of which they shared with the Iberian countries. Mexico at risk of poverty or social exclusion” rates for the European suffered the effects of low international oil prices and went Union (27 countries, EU-27), with values of 26.6% and 23.3% into recessions in 1986, 1994, and 1998-2013, setting of the population, respectively, in comparison to the EU-27 back 70% of its population economically over the last three average of 22.4% (Eurostat, 2019). decades (Monroy et al., 2016). Further crises were felt in Poverty data are generally based on national statistics, western Latin America in 1968 and 1999, Central America making it challenging to make comparisons between coun- in 1979 and 1988, and the Amazon basin in 1998-1999, tries. However, there are other comparable inequity indica- where the economy stagnated in 2014. The southern part of tors, such as the Gini index, which measures inequality in the continent suffered severe crises in 1985, 1996, and from income distribution. Most Gini values for RIOCC countries fall 1998-2003. These recessions increased poverty and exacer- between 40 and 50 points out of 100, which implies a high bated inequality across Latin America (Brosio et al., 2018). concentration of income in the upper deciles of the popula- Furthermore, low business productivity and dependence on tion, and consequently greater inequality. The countries with government support have limited the growth potential in the less inequality in income distribution are those in the Iberian region (ECLAC, 2018). Peninsula, followed by Uruguay, and those concentrating the highest levels of inequality are Brazil, Colombia, and Panama 1.6.3. Poverty, inequality, and corruption (Table 1.3). Although gender inequality indexes vary between countries Inequality and poverty indexes in the region are high (Table (Table 1.4), there is a heavy gender segmentation overall 1.3). Inequality continues to be a structural characteristic in education and in technical and vocational education and
Average RIOCC/Latin America Average RIOCC/Iberian Peninsula per capita growth rate (%) GD P
Year
Figure 1.13. Annual GDP growth rate: 1960-2016. The chart of Latin America represents the average for the 19 RIOCC countries in the region and the chart of the Iberian Peninsula shows the average for the three remaining RIOCC countries (Andorra, Spain, and Portugal). Source: compiled by the authors with data from: World Bank (2019a).
26 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
training in Latin America. This later becomes more visible as caregivers. The economic contribution of unpaid domestic in employment opportunities, especially in quality employ- work in the region is equivalent to between 15.2% and 24.2% ment (ECLAC, 2019). Job markets present a heavily hori- of the GDP, a number that in many countries is higher than zontal segmentation that defines the boundaries of wom- any other economic activity (ECLAC, 2019). en’s participation, concentrating them in certain sectors of the economy, such as caregivers (teaching, health, social Meetings on gender inequality held by the United Nations work, and housekeeping), representing the largest source (such as the Beijing Conference in 1985), development of of employment for women (27.7%). This is explained as an the Gender Inequality Index by the World Economic Forum extension into the job market of the role assigned to women (WEF, 2016), and McKinsey data (2015) show that policies
Table 1.4. Social aspects in RIOCC countries. Source: compiled by the authors based on the most recently available data from the World Bank (2019a) or the UNDP report (2018), and the Government of Andorra (2018). Primary Vulnerable Employment Employment Migration Gender GII Seats held Homicides Unemployment education employment in agriculture in services (net inequality global by women per 100,000 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) balance) (GII) ranking (%) inhabitants Andorra 96.5 .. .. 0.42 64.7 ...... 32.1 1.2 Argentina 92.6 8.3 21.4 0.5 76.1 24,002 0.358 81 38.9 5.9 Bolivia 72.2 3.2 31.3 27.0 50.6 -50,005 0.450 102 53.1 6.3 Brazil 77.6 12.8 27.9 10.3 68.8 30,000 0.407 94 10.7 29.5 Chile 87.1 7.0 23.9 9.6 67.6 85,285 .. 72 15.8 3.5 Colombia 76.0 8.9 47.1 16.1 64.5 -147,004 0.383 87 18.7 25.5 Costa Rica 81.3 8.1 14.0 12 69.5 16,384 0.300 64 35.1 11.9 Cuba .. 2.3 10.3 18.6 64.9 -109,998 0.301 65 48.9 5.0 Ecuador 82.6 3.8 45.6 26.9 54.5 -30,776 0.385 88 38.0 5.9 El Salvador 58.6 (a) 4.4 35.7 18.8 60.0 -202,694 0.392 91 32.1 82.8 Spain 90.5 17.2 11.9 4.1 76.4 200,000 0.080 15 39.1 0.6 Guatemala .. 2.7 34.7 29.4 49.6 -46,073 0.493 120 12.7 27.3 Honduras 59.4 4.0 36.1 28.5 50.3 -14,001 0.461 109 25.8 56.5 Mexico 79.2 3.4 27.2 13.1 61.1 -300,000 0.343 76 42.6 19.3 Nicaragua .. 4.2 39.4 29.4 53 -106,342 0.456 106 45.7 7.4 Panama .. 3.9 32.2 15.1 66.7 31,448 0.461 109 18.3 9.7 Paraguay 76.0 4.6 39.1 21.2 59.3 -82,365 0.467 113 13.8 9.2 (b) Peru 80.5 3.5 50.3 28.4 55.7 -179,540 0.368 83 27.7 7.7 Portugal 90.5 8.9 13.1 6.8 68.3 -30,001 0.088 19 34.8 0.6 Dominican 66.8 5.8 40.9 12.4 70.2 -151,333 0.451 103 26.8 15.2 Republic Uruguay 89.4 7.9 23.9 8.2 71.9 -15,000 0.270 57 20.2 7.7 Venezuela 87.7 7.4 31.9 10.2 66.5 -60,493 0.454 105 22.2 56.3 Global .. 5.1 42.6 26.5 51.1 0 0.441 .. 23.7 5.3 (b) Notes to Table 1.4: [1] Note on the source and years of data collection. Primary education complete (in % of the population over 25 years, cumulatively), according to: WB 2015, except (a), in which case WB 2016 is cited. Intentional homicides for every 100,000 inhabitants, according to WB 2016 data, except (b), in which case WB 2015 is cited. Unemployment (in % of total active population, estimate based on ILO modeling), net migration (annual balance of displaced persons to and from the country, including citizens and foreigners); share of seats held by women in national parliaments (%), according to WB 2017. Vulnerable employment (% of total employment), employment in farming sector (% of total employment), employment in service sector (% of total employment), Gender Inequality Index (GII), and global GII ranking, based on UNDP data (2018). Unavailable data is indicated by two points (..).
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 27 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
that allow for greater parity improve the global GDP by 15% Table 1.5. Ranking of RIOCC countries among the 180 countries and up to 25% in terms of total equity. The effects of equality around the world based on the Corruption Perceptions Index. policies are reflected in the increasing share of seats held Source: compiled by the authors based on Transparency by women in national parliaments (Table 1.4), although there International (2018). are still gender differences in terms of political access. The introduction of female quotas is a measure aimed at reduc- 0-39 40-79 80-119 120-180 ing inequality and enabling women to gain greater political Uruguay (23) Spain (41) Argentina (85) Bolivia (132) representation, although these active policies continue to meet with resistance. A good example of this is Mexico, Chile (27) Costa Rica (48) Panama (93) Honduras (132) which reached gender parity in September 2018 in Senate Portugal (30) Cuba (61) Colombia (99) Paraguay 132 and Congress on a national level and across all states. By displacing authoritarian partisan structures associated with Brazil (105) Mexico (138) regional patriarchal power mechanisms, often tied to orga- Guatemala nized crime, this parity went hand in hand with political vio- El Salvador (105) (144) lence, which has led to an increase in the murder of women Nicaragua in general and political women specifically, especially on a Perú (105) regional level (CNDH, 2018). (152) Another factor that limits progress throughout the Ibe- Dominican Rep. Venezuela ro-American region is corruption. According to Transparency (129) (168) International (2018), the countries with the least corruption are Uruguay, Chile, and Portugal, which is reflected in the relatively low Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). These are erty, and inequality require stronger labor policies and inclu- followed by Spain, Costa Rica, and Cuba, with medium lev- sive job market policies that are engaged with social security els of corruption. The rest of the countries present high or policies and aimed at the generation of quality employment very high levels, with Venezuela the most extreme (Table opportunities, the promotion of social dialog, and strengthen- 1.5). This factor not only affects a country’s economy and ing of union organization and collective bargaining. Despite development, it also deteriorates human rights and weak- progress in social spending (in 2016, the region reached the ens governance structures. Generalized corruption between highest average public social spending since 2000), the region public, private, and religious sectors shows that much of the still faces major financing challenges, especially in countries economic process is lost to unproductiveness. This harmful whose population has farther to go in terms of overcoming practice also reduces governability and generates conflicts poverty and inequality, which are the same countries with less between countries, within countries, and between social per capita resources (ECLAC, 2019). classes, which are frequently related to natural resources (Transparency International, 2018). In Spain and Portugal, One of the groups most affected by the current econom- ic model is youth, isolated from the level of global devel- opinion polls show that most citizens believe that corruption opment. For example, over the past decade, youth unem- is widespread and political parties and politicians are the ployment in Spain has reached unbearably high numbers most affected groups, with values 15-20% higher than the EU (45%) and job vulnerability has been characterized by part- average (Eurobarometer, 2017). time work and self-employment. This is not unique to the Iberian countries, in fact it is true for all of Ibero-America. While unemployment in youth under 25 is greater among 1.6.4. Social and labor inclusion males, female unemployment increases from 25 years and Over the last few decades, Latin American has made prog- up (Eurostat, 2018). In Latin America, especially in Mexico ress in several areas in terms of social inclusion, such as and Central America, faced with the impossibility of finding the right to education, health, and access to basic utilities work, unemployed youth and entire communities are recruit- (water, sanitation, electricity, and Internet). However, sig- ed, or forced, into organized crime and youth gangs (UNICEF, nificant inequalities persist in terms of the coverage and 2017). Involvement in illegal activities results in increased quality of these services. The job market is characterized by mortality rates. insufficient job offers and significant gaps in the quality of jobs available (see vulnerable employment and unemploy- ment rates in Table 1.4), in access to social security, and in 1.6.5. Violence, conflicts, and migration wages, which are often below legal minimum wage and less Despite being a nuclear-weapon-free zone (Tlatelolco Treaty), than the minimum required to overcome poverty and attain Latin America is the most violent region in terms of small adequate welfare levels (ECLAC, 2019). weapons and organized crime (Alvarado and Muggah, 2018). Consequently, lower levels of unemployment do not necessari- In 2003, the countries of the Organization of American States ly mean lower levels of inequality and poverty (Tables 1.3 and (OAS) signed the “Declaration on Security in the Americas” 1.4). In this context, the reduction of poverty, extreme pov- to strengthen institutions and countries against violence.
28 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
However, the implementation process has been inefficient Table 1.6. Prosecution of border disputes in Latin America and there is little room for joint action against multinational (2008-2016) taken to the Inter-American Court of Justice. and multilevel violence. Weak institutions, governments with Source: compiled by the authors based on Rojas (2018, pp.345). little legitimacy, high levels of corruption, and a deterioration of regional support and cooperation organizations (CELAC, Countries Case in dispute Year 2013) have prevented economic consolidation, cooperation, involved and an effective war on crime. Peru v. Chile Maritime dispute 2008 According to World Bank data, the highest intentional homi- Ecuador v. cide rates were in El Salvador, Honduras, and Venezuela, Fumigation herbicide area 2008 while rates were well below the other countries in the region Colombia in Spain and Portugal (Table 1.4). In 2018, of the 50 most Request for interpretation of the March violent countries in the world, 47 were in Latin America Mexico v. USA 31, 2004, verdict in the case of Avena 2008 (CCSPJP, 2019). In 2018, the ten Latin American cities with and other Mexican nationals the highest rate of homicides per 100,000 inhabitants were: Costa Rica v. Certain activities carried out by Los Cabos (Mexico), 111; Caracas (Venezuela), 111; Acapul- 2010 co (Mexico) 106; Natal (Brazil) 102; Tijuana (Mexico), 100; La Nicaragua Nicaragua on the border Paz (Mexico), 84; Fortaleza (Brazil), 83; Victoria (Mexico), 83; Nicaragua v. Construction of a highway in Costa Rica 2011 Guayana (Venezuela), 80; Belém (Brazil), 71 (CCSPJP, 2019). Costa Rica along the San Juan River This high level of violence weakens democracy. Between Obligation to negotiate access to the 1995 and 2017, 51-69% of Latin Americans were unsatisfied Bolivia v. Chile 2013 with government (Latinobarómetro, 2018). Pacific Ocean Nicaragua v. Definition of continental shelf between Latin America has judicialized many disputes over land 2013 issues, water rights, ocean access, and pollution from Colombia the two countries extractive activities (Table 1.6). There are also disputes Nicaragua v. Alleged violations of sovereign rights and 2013 along different points of the 8,000 km of borders, where Colombia maritime spaces in the Caribbean Sea 60% of water is located in transboundary water basins. The Costa Rica v. Maritime definition in the Caribbean Sea biggest conflicts arise around hydroelectric dams and river 2014 diversions, where indigenous communities and the rural or Nicaragua and the Pacific Ocean urban population has fought against the loss of land and Dispute regarding the location and the Chile v. Bolivia 2016 clean water. Another cause of conflicts involves water use use of water from Silala for irrigation in more profitable activities (mining, speculation, tourism and urban developments). Other conflicts arise from potable water concessions or treatment plants for transna- tional corporations, who took advantage of existing infrastruc- The crisis in Venezuela has driven 4.01 million people out, of ture and raised prices without improving water and sanitation which 3.2 million are in Latin America. In terms of regulariza- services, which has given rise to mass protests among the tions (1.8 million), Colombia is the country that has granted affected populace (Empinotti et al., 2014). the most (36.7%) to date (UNHCR, 2019). There are certain parallels between the net migration rate An explanation of the migratory flow towards OECD countries and the countries’ level of economic development. Based on reveals that climate change drivers (increase in temperature, World Bank data, the net migration rate in 2017 was positive extreme climate events) in many cases are becoming more for Spain, the largest receptor among the RIOCC countries, determinant than socio-political or economical drivers, especial- with 200,000 people, followed by Chile, Panama, Brazil, ly where the countries of origin depend on agriculture (Wessel- Argentina, and Costa Rica. With the exception of Venezuela, baum and Aburn, 2019). Both drivers coincide in many cases which will be discussed later, Mexico can be found on the when it comes to Ibero-America, such as the dependence on other end of the spectrum, with a negative net migration rate agriculture (especially in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, of 300,000 people. Generally, the rest of the Latin American Peru, Bolivia, and Ecuador, Table 1.4) and an increased expo- countries also has a negative net migration rate to a greater sure to climate hazards (Magrin et al., 2014). Little analysis has or lesser degree (Table 1.4). Over the last few decades, the been made of climate migration in Latin America and the areas destination of Andean immigrants was Brazil and Argentina, most affected by extreme climate events are concentrated in and Ecuadorian immigrants headed for the Iberian Peninsula. Central America, where hurricanes like Mitch (1998), Stan, and However, public policy changes in Brazil and Argentina and Wilma (2005) have forced entire communities to abandon their improved living conditions in the Andean region have reduced homes (Oswald, 2012). The Obama and particularly the Trump the migratory flow. Mexico is also a transit country for Central administration has limited the amount of refugees in the United American immigrants, where they suffer terrible abuse due States. However, according to information from the Governance to the pressure of the United States and the relative imper- Secretariat, up until June 2019, more than 700,000 transmi- meability of the border (Figure 1.14) (Oswald et al., 2013). grants from Central America crossed through Mexico and are
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 29 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
United States
Cuba
Haiti Dominican Republic Puerto Rico
Jamaica Mexico
North Atlantic Ocean Venezuela
Guyana French Surinam Guyana Colombia
North Ecuador Pacific Ocean Peru
Brazil
Bolivia Belize
Guatemala Honduras Chile Paraguay El Salvador Nicaragua South South Pacific Atlantic Costa Rica Ocean Ocean Panama Uruguay Argentina
Spain
Mexico
LEGEND Hurricanes Ecuador Human degradation of land and Peru Brazil desertification Bolivia ENSO: Niño/Niña Food reduction from climate events Regions highly exposed to Argentina extreme climate events Environmental migration Water scarcity Migration routes
Figure 1.14. Migration tied to socioeconomic and environmental processes in the Ibero-American region. Source: Oswald et al. (2013).
awaiting access to North American authorities from the Mexican Iberian countries, farming and livestock insurance and subsi- side of the border. Since 2009, Mexico has seen an acceler- dies protect the agrarian population from climate fluctuations, ation of its internal environmental migration as a result of the while the risk transfer culture is little developed in Latin America militarization of the northern border (Oswald et al., 2014). In (Castro, 2009).
30 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
1.6.6. Greenhouse gas emissions in the region with a higher GDP are still highly dependent on fossil fuel and have not yet been able to decouple economic The 22 RIOCC countries were responsible for 7.6% of green- growth from emissions growth, necessary for the sustainable house gas (GHG) emissions from burning fossil fuels and development goals that guarantee the welfare and quality of industrial processes, based on the latest homogeneous life of people (Román-Collado and Morales-Carrión, 2018). data for 2014 (ClimateWatch, 2019) (Table 1.7). Within the region, the most populated countries have the highest GHG emissions (Brazil and Mexico, with 2.7 and 1.4% of glob- 1.7. Political and institutional al emissions, respectively). However, in an analysis of per capita emissions, the greatest emission generators are Uru- framework guay, Venezuela, Argentina, Andorra, and Spain (with values of 9.5, 8.5, 7.9, 7.4, and 6.6 tons of CO2-eq per capita, respectively), placing them ahead of the two most populat- 1.7.1. Adaptation assessment in the ed countries with average emissions higher than the global framework of the Paris Agreement average of 6.1 tons of CO2-eq per capita. By contrast, six countries in Central America and Peru generated the least The Paris Agreement was adopted by 196 countries in amount of emissions per capita (Table 1.7). In any case, December 2015 in session 21 of the UNFCCC Conference the numbers in all Ibero-American countries are far from the of Parties (COP) and ratified by 185 member as of March numbers coming out of the biggest emission generators like 2019, including all RIOCC countries. It establishes the global Australia or United States, which have numbers over 20 tons goal on adaptation to climate change of “enhancing adap- of CO2-eq per capita, i.e., more than double the maximum tation capacity, strengthening resilience, and reducing vul- values of the RIOCC countries. nerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to However, for a more adjusted idea of emissions, it is import- sustainable development and ensuring an adequate adap- ant to consider in this equation emissions from land use, tation response” (UNFCCC, 2015). It also establishes the land use change, and forestry (LULUCF), a sector that is commitment of the parties to assess progress made towards especially relevant to the region. Although in some coun- adaptation and mechanisms for periodically communicating tries the LULUCF sector acts as a sink (Chile, Spain, Cuba, this progress through the established channels. The Paris Costa Rica, Uruguay, and Dominican Republic) (Table 1.7), Agreement will be fully effective in 2020 and it establishes in others the emissions balance increases due to deforesta- that for 2023 there should be a global accounting of all the tion activities for land conversion for crops or other types of goals in the agreement, including adaptation goals. uses, biomass burning, decomposition, and deficient solid The climate change adaptation assessment is therefore and liquid waste management (Fearnside, 2000). In the new a common goal among all RIOCC countries as signatories ranking of per capita emissions (including LULUCF), Chile is to the agreement. However, compliance with these com- in the lead, which by far offsets its emissions with LULUCF, mitments has its challenges, both nationally and globally. accompanied by several Central American countries, which On the one hand, the identification of adaptation actions is maintain their levels (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Dominican not always direct, due to the cross-cutting nature of some Republic, Guatemala, Nicaragua), and Cuba. After consider- actions, as these may form part of development projects, ing its LULUCF, Cuba, it joins the ranks of the countries with disaster risk reduction plans, or they may be integrated the least net emissions per capita (Table 1.7). The analysis into other broader policies, etc. The options for addressing of percentages of GHG emissions per sector (% calculated the assessment are varied, each with its own difficulties based on total emissions without counting those associated and challenges, which have been analyzed in depth in the with LULUCF) indicates that based on ClimateWatch data for Adaptation Gap Report (UNEP, 2017). Figure 1.15 presents 2014, in most RIOCC countries, agriculture is responsible for a diagram of the main methods for assessing progress in most emissions, generally followed by transport and electric- adaptation, with the advantages and disadvantages of each. ity/heating sectors (Table 1.8). In terms of mitigation, although renewable energy consump- tion varies across different RIOCC countries, it is generally 1.7.2. National perspective for CCA very high and above or very above the global average of assessment 18.2%, reaching 63% in the case of Guatemala based on 2015 data (Table 1.7). There are diverse initiatives in place The national perspective for the adaptation assessment to reduce methane emissions (Benaouda et al., 2017), which involves an analysis of national progress declared by the is of special interest, given the importance of emissions from parties to UNFCCC along diverse communications channels, the agriculture and livestock sector. As a whole, Latin Ameri- such as national communications (NC), intended nationally ca stands out for its high consumption of renewable energy determined contributions (INDC), or national adaptation plans in relation to the consumption of other sources of fossil fuel (NAP). These types of communications generally involve (oil, coal, natural gas), with a higher balance than any other narrative self-reports, where countries declare adaptation region in the world (Dong et al., 2018. However, countries actions that they are carrying out and the results of these
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 31 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
Table 1.7. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rate for land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) and consumption of renewable energy by RIOCC countries. Source: compiled by author based on the most recently available data from the Climate Watch website, 2019 and the UNDP report (2018). Per capita Per capita Consumption Emissions Emissions LULUCF emissions, emissions, of renewable balance, LULUCF without LULUCF emissions without LULUCF LULUCF incl. resources incl. (Mt CO -eq) (Mt CO -eq) (t of CO -eq per (t of CO -eq per (% of total 2 2 (Mt CO -eq) 2 2 2 capita) capita) consumption) Andorra 0.52 0.0 0.50 7.4 7.1 19.7 Argentina 348.65 94.6 443.26 7.9 10.0 10.0 Bolivia 48.47 85.7 134.18 4.4 12.1 17.5 Brazil 1051 306.2 1357.18 5.0 6.5 43.8 Chile 97.15 -104.9 -7.79 5.4 -0.4 24.9 Colombia 162.87 19.5 182.39 3.3 3.7 23.6 Costa Rica 13.9 -11.4 2.53 2.8 0.5 38.7 Cuba 46.83 -14.0 32.87 4.1 2.9 19.3 Ecuador 60.63 33.9 94.53 3.7 5.7 13.8 El Salvador 11.82 0.7 12.55 1.8 2.0 24.4 Spain 305.82 -33.2 272.67 6.6 5.9 16.3 Guatemala 30.86 7.6 38.4 1.8 2.3 63.7 Honduras 21.47 28.1 49.6 2.3 5.3 51.5 Mexico 721.65 7.5 729.1 5.6 5.6 9.2 Nicaragua 14.52 0.2 14.74 2.3 2.4 48.2 Panama 17.76 8.6 26.31 4.3 6.4 21.2 Paraguay 39.92 143.3 183.23 5.9 26.9 61.7 Peru 89.66 71.9 161.51 2.8 5.0 25.5 Portugal 61.59 1.8 63.35 6.0 6.2 27.2 Dominican Republic 33.11 -8.7 24.41 3.1 2.3 16.5 Uruguay 33.22 -10.5 22.7 9.5 6.5 58.0 Venezuela 271.14 66.4 337.54 8.5 10.5 12.8 Global (G) 45740.7 .. 3151.7 .. 48892.37 .. 6.1 .. 6.5 .. 18.2 ..
Notes to Table 1.7. [1] Note on the source and year of data collection. Total GHG emissions, without counting LULUCF (in Mt CO2-eq); GHG
emission rate with LULUCF (in Mt CO2-eq); GHG emissions, including LULUCF (in Mt CO2-eq); GHG emissions per capita without considering
LULUCF (in tons of CO2-eq per capita); GHG emissions per capita, including LULUCF (in tons of CO2-eq per capita), according to Climate Watch for 2014. Consumption of renewable energy, according the UNDP data for 2015. [2] Color legend: Emissions in gray, the darker the gray, the greater the emissions; renewable energy in green, the darker the green, the greater the consumption of renewable energy.
(UNEP, 2017). Given that it is not always possible to attri- the corresponding national communications to the UNFCCC bute results, it is generally simpler to assess actions. In any recently (as of April 30, 2019) were: water resources, agricul- case, this is more of a qualitative approach to identify each ture and livestock resources, terrestrial ecosystems, human country’s priorities for action. heath, rural and urban settlements, forestry resources, and biodiversity. Some of the sectors included in this report do For example, an analysis of national communications is not appear explicitly in national communications (as is the useful for identifying in broad terms what sectors are being case with storms, hurricanes, landslides, or fire), which does addressed in terms of adaptation by different countries not mean they are not being addresses through other specif- (Table 1.9). Some more frequently addressed issues in ic plans, for example, disaster risk management.
32 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
Table 1.8. GHG emissions per sector (% of the total without counting LULUCF). Source: compiled by the authors using total emissions data without counting LULUCF and GHG per sector from 2014 Climate Watch (Climate Watch website, 2019). N/A= not available. Manufacturing Electricity Industrial Burning other Fugitive Transport and Agriculture Waste and heating processes fuels emissions construction Andorra N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Argentina 21.0 13.3 3.0 9.3 32.2 4.6 12.5 4.0 Bolivia 9.3 15.4 3.7 4.4 47.8 4.2 9.8 5.4 Brazil 11.9 20.3 5.4 9.3 42.0 4.3 5.8 0.9 Chile 33.6 24.3 4.2 14.6 10.1 3.0 8.3 2.1 Colombia 12.0 18.3 5.1 8.2 32.9 7.5 7.3 8.7 Costa Rica 5.5 35.4 9.5 7.1 25.0 11.1 6.4 0.0 Cuba 33.2 2.7 5.2 18.8 22.4 4.9 9.7 3.1 Ecuador 16.9 26.6 6.3 8.5 21.4 3.6 13.6 3.1 El Salvador 14.0 23.9 8.4 5.9 22.2 8.9 16.6 0.0 Spain 28.4 26.8 5.0 10.8 11.9 5.3 11.3 0.5 Guatemala 11.0 20.9 7.3 17.9 27.2 4.2 11.5 0.0 Honduras 16.7 16.1 4.5 4.0 27.6 21.2 9.9 0.0 Mexico 26.3 21.0 6.0 8.0 11.7 15.5 6.5 5.0 Nicaragua 10.7 13.0 3.2 3.9 52.9 5.9 10.5 0.0 Panama 18.4 21.7 7.7 14.5 19.1 13.0 5.5 0.0 Paraguay N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Peru 18.3 21.5 7.1 9.3 25.9 10.6 6.0 1.2 Portugal 28.6 25.5 5.8 9.0 10.3 12.3 8.2 0.3 Dominican Republic 31.2 15.3 8.3 6.8 23.5 6.2 8.5 0.2 Uruguay 2.9 10.4 3.2 2.4 72.9 4.5 3.6 0.1 Venezuela 20.3 18.5 4.2 15.8 13.3 3.0 2.8 22.1 Global (G) 33.5 16.5 6.9 13.6 11.5 3.3 9.0 5.7
Analogous to this, the nationally determined contributions at energy, and 15 at forestry resources. A special case (NDC) communicated to the UNFCCC reveal that adaptation of adaptation policies involves Ibero-American megacities, plays a big role in Latin America. According to the InterAm- considering that close to 80% of the population lives in erican Development Bank (IDB), there is overlap in over half urban areas. In these areas, mitigation aspects, combined of the contributions in the following sectors considered to with adaptation, take on particular relevance (Calvo, 2010; be priority: food security and agricultural production, 90%; Magrin, 2015). The different chapters of this report analyze water availability and management of water resources, 77%; advances made along these lines for each of the sectors human heath, 71%; infrastructure, 58%; ecosystems and studied (national, sectoral plans, etc.). biodiversity, 55%; human settlements, housing, and urban The greatest concern, however, is regarding extreme weather infrastructure; and coastal zones and marine resources. The or climate events resulting from both current climate and its critical factor for implementation of adaptation actions is variability and from climate change. In keeping with this, hur- access to financial resources, which is why some of the ricanes in the Caribbean and increasingly those in the Central adaptation contributions are conditional. American Pacific, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation can Legislative progress is also subject to this type of analysis be considered the largest reasons for concern (Poushter and from a national perspective. For example, for Latin America, Manevich, 2017). Another growing aspect relates to policies Galindo et al., 2017 identified 245 global policies whose tied to wildfires, especially relevant in temperate countries primary purpose is adaptation, of which, 57 were aimed at (Iberian Peninsula and Southern Cone) and seasonal dry water resources, 54 at agriculture and livestock resources, tropical countries, although this is growing in relevance in 39 at infrastructure, 31 at health, 29 at biodiversity, 20 all tropical regions. Likewise, the rise in sea level is a pivotal
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 33 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
ASSESSMENT OF PROGRESS IN ADAPTATION
SPECIFIC METHODS COMPLEMENTARY METHODS
NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE Other assessment frameworks
UNISDR (+) Sensitive to national context (–) Not aggregate/comparable between countries Sustainable SENDAI (–) Not comparable over time Development Framework for Goals Disaster Risk (SDGs) Reduction (UN) GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
Funding Mitigation progress
(–) Loses sensitivity to national context (+) Comparable/aggregate between countries (+) Allows follow-up over time
Figure 1.15. Diagram of the main methods for assessing progress in adaptation to climate change. Source: compiled by author based on UNEP reports on adaptation assessment. Source: compiled by the authors based on UNEP 2016; 2017.
issue, except in landlocked countries (Bolivia and Paraguay). infrastructure). This type of standardized index, such as ND, Finally, droughts that primarily affect the Iberian Peninsula, has several advantages: it compares/adds values for an northeastern Brazil, the western South American coast, and international global inventory, it is a transparent process, Mexico have led to diverse adaptation practices, some based it allows progress to be measured over time, it is feasible, on ancestral knowledge, especially in the South American and it is framed coherently within the adaptation framework. Andean region. However, it has the disadvantage that it isn’t sensitive to the national context (Chen et al., 2015; Berrang-Ford et al., 2017). 1.7.3. Global perspective for climate Supplementing the two aforementioned approaches (nation- change adaptation assessment al and global), the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Framework and the Sendai Framework to reduce disaster risk The global perspective for adaptation assessment involves provide an opportunity to build synergies with the adapta- taking standardized inventory to assess progress in coun- tion goals through the use of shared indicators, joint imple- tries on adaptation issues (UNEP, 2017). This includes the mentation, or the development of capacities and policies comparative assessment system know as the Notre Dame (Berrang-Ford et al., 2017). The Paris Agreement, in fact, is Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN) (Chen et al., 2015). The explicitly aligned with both frameworks (SDGs and Sendai), system covers a wide temporal spectrum (with estimates which were established the same year (2015). Each chapter from as far back as 1995) and it has been applied to a good has attempted to include a table for each sector that cross- number of countries around the world, including all the RIOCC es every possible adaptation measure with the SDGs and countries (Table 1.10). The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Sendai framework goals and indicates possible interactions Index (ND-GAIN) is calculated based on 45 indicators grouped with mitigation. into two main types, “preparation” indicators for the CCA (the greater the preparation, the higher the index result) and CC “vulnerability” indicators (the more vulnerable, the lower the index value). In broad strokes, the adaptation prepara- 1.7.4. Coordination mechanisms in the tion indicators quantify governance and social availability, in region for adaptation economic terms, to take on climate change. Vulnerability indi- cators are based on diverse cross-cutting components (expo- Most of the current UNFCCC focal points in Ibero-America sure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity) and sectoral components are their foreign affairs ministries, generally accompanied (ecosystem services, water, food, health, settlements, and by their environmental ministers. The ministers responsible
34 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
Table 1.9. Analysis of the presence/absence of adaptation measures by sectors in the most recent national communications (NC) from RIOCC countries to UNFCCC, as of April 30, 2019. (+) indicates sections where CCA actions are expressly mentioned as projected or are being implemented (including sectoral laws, plans, and programs that include an adaptation approach). (-) indicates sectors that do not appear among the expressly projected/implemented CCA actions. Source: website (UNFCCC, 2019). Fires Health Coasts Tourism Company Landslides Biodiversity Settlements Water resources Water Land ecosystems Fishing resources Last NC published Year of publication Year Forestry resources Marine ecosystems Agriculture resources Flooding and droughts Storms and hurricanes
Andorra CN1 2017 ------Argentina CN3 2015 + + + + + + + - + + - - + + + + Bolivia CN2 2009 + + - + + + - - - + + + + - - + Brazil CN3 2016 + + + + + + + - - - - - + - - + Chile CN3 2016 + + - + + + - + - + - - + + - + Colombia CN3 2017 - + - - + + + - - + + - + + - + Costa Rica CN3 2014 - - - + + + - + - + - - + - - + Cuba CN2 2015 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Ecuador CN3 2017 + + + + + + + - - + ------El Salvador CN3 2018 + + + + + + + + - + + - + + - + Spain CN7 2017 + + + + + + + + - + - - + + - + Guatemala CN2 2016 - + - + + + + + + + - - + + - + Honduras CN2 2012 + + - - + + + - - + + - - - - + Mexico CN6 2018 + + + + + + + + + + - + + + + + Nicaragua CN3 2018 ------Panama CN3 2018 + + + + + + + + - + - - + + + + Paraguay CN3 2017 - + - - + + + - + + - - - - - + Peru CN3 2016 + + + + + + + + - - - - + - + + Portugal CN7 2017 + + - + + + + - - + - + + + + + Dominican Republic CN3 2017 ------Uruguay CN4 2016 + + - + + + + - - + - - + + + + Venezuela CN2 2018 ------
for agriculture and sanitation and the entities responsible for to all, efforts in Latin America are generally not common disaster risk management have also taken on a large part knowledge. However, Latin America has hosted the UNFC- of the adaptation in the region. However, there is a growing CC Conference of Parties on four occasions (twice in Bue- implication for sectors like housing or transport, which are nos Aires, once in Cancun, and in Lima in 2014) and in operating on longer timelines, or the health sector, which December 2019, COP 25 was organized in Chile and held in is especially affected by the mobility of vector-transmitted Madrid (Spain). Latin American countries have unanimously diseases. Despite these advances, this requires increased ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate international cooperation between the aforementioned min- Change, the Paris Agreement, and the Kyoto Protocol, and istries and sectors to streamline implementation process. most have ratified the Doha Amendment (although the miss- On a supranational level, while European Union efforts ing Latin American countries could provide close to a third of towards climate change are widespread and generally known the ratifications necessary for this to go into effect).
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 35 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
Table 1.10. Results of the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN) applied to RIOCC countries (except Andorra) for 2017. The columns show the value of the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN), the position of countries in the global ranking, and a breakdown of the main ND-GAIN index components (availability and vulnerability). In the global ranking column, green is used for positions 1-50 in the global ranking, yellow for positions 51--100 in the global ranking, and red for positions 101-150. In the column for the adaptation “preparation” variable, the darker the shade of blue on the scale, the more prepared. In the column for the adaptation “vulnerability” variable, the darker the shade of orange on the scale, the more vulnerable. Source: ND-GAIN website (2019). CCA assessment based on the Notre Dame Global Main components of the ND-GAIN index Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN) Results 2017 Position in global ranking CCA preparedness CC vulnerability Spain 62.63 24 0.56 0.31 Portugal 61.62 27 0.58 0.35 Chile 61.29 28 0.57 0.34 Uruguay 54.36 55 0.47 0.38 Costa Rica 53.52 61 0.46 0.39 Argentina 51.94 69 0.41 0.37 Panama 50.81 72 0.42 0.41 Peru 50.80 75 0.44 0.43 Mexico 50.67 76 0.40 0.38 Colombia 50.66 77 0.40 0.39 Brazil 50.35 80 0.39 0.38 Paraguay 47.55 93 0.34 0.38 Dominican Republic 47.41 94 0.38 0.43 Cuba 45.47 104 0.34 0.43 El Salvador 44.97 109 0.35 0.45 Ecuador 44.67 110 0.34 0.45 Guatemala 43.28 111 0.32 0.46 Nicaragua 42.55 115 0.30 0.45 Venezuela 42.11 121 0.19 0.35 Honduras 41.26 122 0.29 0.46 Bolivia 40.34 127 0.27 0.46
From a negotiation perspective, despite the variability of ation Treaty Organization (ACTO), the South Pacific Permanent some entities, Latin American countries have participated in Commission (SPPC), and Mercosur. These latter entities have the following groups: Regional Group of Latin America and the had particular importance in dealing with subregional phenom- Caribbean (together with English- French-, and Dutch-speak- ena such as hurricanes and tropical storms, tropical glacier ing countries in the region), the Group of 77 and China (all retreat, adaptation in tropical forests, the El Niño phenomenon, countries except Mexico, which forms part of the Environmen- and adaptation in the Río de la Plata basin. These experiences tal Integrity Group, with South Korea, Liechtenstein, Monaco, are reflected in other global and regional organizations and in and Switzerland) and alliances on negotiation issues (ALBA, their influence in national plans and adaptation programs. Anoth- AILAC, ABU, etc.). er space that has consolidated over the last few years is the format of the climate weeks (LACCW), such as the most recent The role of RIOCC provides a space for engagement between all one held in Montevideo in August 2018, designed to advance climate change offices in Ibero-America. There is also a group towards regional climate action and in support of the implemen- of subregional entities that have been uniquely important in tation of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of the adaptation efforts, notably the Central American Integration Sys- countries under the Paris Agreement, as well as climate action tem (SICA), the Andean Community (CAN), the Amazon Cooper- to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
36 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
In conclusion, the international regime for adaptation contin- and climate-specific funds. The last of these three (funds) ues to move forward, although it needs to strengthen and has the most systematic and accessible information avail- establish regional networks and centers. Of these, RIOCC able (perhaps the only one) regarding country-specific data. and EUROCLIMA may become the natural spaces for an Although climate-specific funds in 2014 represented 4% of exchange of ideas and experiences between the two large global public funds (only one thousand of the USD 25 billion), regions that its members belong to (LAC and UE) and for they represent a tool that provides the most advantageous establishing networks around issues and exchanging scien- terms for recipient countries, and this form of financing is tific literature in Spanish and Portuguese. likely to increase. Historically, in the UNFCCC the adaptation issue has played a The Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015) establishes that a flow marginal but growing role. The inflection point on adaptation of ongoing support from developed countries to developing probably came about in 2010 with the creation of the Cancun countries should be provided in the area of finance, technol- Adaptation Framework. This framework established the Adap- ogy, and knowledge, on the basis that “the largest share of tation Committee, which has been organizing Annual Adapta- historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases tion Forums since its first meeting in 2012. The first forum has originated in developed countries, that per capita emis- was held in Warsaw in 2013. The inclusion of the term loss sions in developing countries are still relatively low and that and damage in 2013 has broadened the spectrum. Article 8 the share of global emissions originating in developing coun- of the Paris Agreement mentions 8 areas of cooperation and tries will grow to meet their social and development needs” facilitation to enhance understanding, action, and support: a) (UNFCCC, 1992). Effectively, while the emissions balance early warning systems; b) emergency preparedness; c) slow reveals that Ibero-American countries proportionately con- onset events; d) events that may involve irreversible and per- tribute little to the emissions responsible for global warming manent loss and damage; e) integrated risk assessment and in comparison to other regions of the world (Climate Watch, management; f) risk insurance facilities, climate risk pooling, 2019), the region is among the most threatened globally and other insurance solutions; g) non-economic losses; and based on diverse climate risk indicators (Mora et al., 2017). h) resilience of communities, livelihoods, and ecosystems. Climate adaptation funds include: the Pilot Program for Cli- On December 2017, the discussion at UNFCCC was centered mate Resilience (PPCR); the Less Developed Countries Fund on the progress of adaptation actions and establishment of (LDCF); the Adaptation Fund (AF); the Adaptation for Small- an international adaptation registry. Water and agriculture holder Agriculture Programme (ASAP); the Special Climate have been given priority in terms of adaptation technologies. Change Fund (SCCF); the MDG Achievement Fund (MDG-F), Finally in 2017, the relevance of continuity of the Adaptation and since 2015, the Green Climate Fund (GCF) (Trabacchi Fund was established, clarifying its governance mechanisms et al., 2016; CFU, 2017). Diverse projects in many RIOCC and sources of finance. countries are currently being financed with funds such as the AF and the GCF. Other supranational entities participate in obtaining and 1.7.5. Finance monitoring channeling this financing. The World Bank actively helps countries to meet and even exceed the expectations of the The movement of financial resources has been indicated Paris Agreement, providing funding, technical assistance, as a clear sign of political commitment to addressing cli- and knowledge exchange services. It has also been the mate risks (Lesnikowski et al., 2017). Global estimates of administrator of the GCF since its outset (this is provision- public CCA finance in 2014 was 25 billion USD (Buchner al pending the appointment of the definitive administrator) et al., 2015; Trabacchi et al., 2016). This gives us an idea (World Bank, 2017; GCF, 2017). The EU and its member of the volume of financing available, and although interna- states, which also include RIOCC members, are making tional public funding represents only a small part, it is an significant economic contributions, having committed to important part. Numbers are unknown for private finance constantly broaden the mobilization of international financ- and national public finance due to the lack of systematic ing for climate as part of a collective goal of developed monitoring as these are integrated into broader policies or countries to promote mitigation and adaptation. For this form part of development projects that contribute to adap- purpose, it proposes using a variety of sources, instru- tation without explicitly mentioning it in their objectives ments, and channels (European Council, 2017a, 2017b). (Trabacchi et al., 2016). The participation of multilateral (IDB, CAF, etc.) and nation- The part of annual global public finance that corresponds to al development banks to scale climate change adaptation Latin America and the Caribbean is 12% of the total (USD funds is growing in importance. National trust funds and 3 billion of the global USD 25 billion). Data has been calcu- funds, such as the Mexico and Brazil climate funds, have lated for all countries in Latin America and the Caribbean also grown in importance, with funds from their respective (Trabacchi et al., 2016) however, not just for RIOCC countries. national budgets. Even private banking has made financial It is difficult to find country-specific information by coun- instruments available for adaptation, with their own funds try on the three possible public finance sources previously or through resources from other sources (Samaniego and mentioned, i.e., development institutes, direct contributions, Schneider, 2015).
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 37 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
risks. These actions can also serve to benefit from Frequently Asked Questions opportunities generated by climate change. In general the most widespread are planned actions carried out 1. Will warming of the climate system be constant by governments from the top down, from a centralized across RIOCC countries? administration to other state, regional or local settings. Communities or private entities can also put into prac- Global warming is mostly caused by greenhouse gas tice their own autonomous adaptation measures. Actions emissions. These gases tend to distribute uniformly may be soft (laws, ordinances, regulations, education, throughout the atmosphere, regardless of their emission training, etc.) or hard (all types of infrastructure). Climate point. Therefore, average concentrations will be similar change adaptation must be put into place with no further anywhere on the planet. However, at a certain point, delay. The climate has already changed, the mean sea temperature becomes a function of other factors. Cur- level is rising, along with the atmospheric concentration rently, the temperature is 1º to 2º higher in the northern of CO2, with its subsequent fertilizer effect on plants hemisphere that in the southern hemisphere (NH and and a reduction of pH in the ocean. There is evidence SH, respectively). This difference is mainly due to the that most extreme climate or weather events are more ocean transport of heat from low latitudes to the poles likely now than they were before, as a consequence of (e.g., the Gulf Stream), and the differences in albedo the already observed warming. The ongoing increase in (higher in the NH) and temperature (lower in Antarcti- temperature, mean sea level, etc., make these events ca) in the poles of both hemispheres. The difference in more likely. temperature between the hemispheres has increased due to the loss of ice and snow in the NH. Warming is 4. What does the adaptive capacity to climate greater on land than in the ocean, which exacerbates change depend on? this difference. As greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow unchecked in the 21st century, the temperature We understand the adaptive capacity to climate change difference between hemispheres will continue to rise, as the ability of natural or human systems to withstand due to the increase in the loss of arctic ice and subse- the potential damages of climate change, take advan- quent change in albedo, whereas in lower scenarios, the tage of their opportunities, and respond to their conse- descent of heat transfer predominates. Subsequently, quences. In ecological systems, the adaptive capacity is there is an increase in warming, which will be produced the result of the evolutionary pressure to resist certain in the higher latitudes of the NH. On a local level, differ- extremes or disturbances and recover from these once ences in continentality, topography, altitude, and other they occur. Ecological resilience is a key parameter of drivers mean that warming will not be the same in two this. Our capacity to modulate these capacities in the different points with a similar latitude. short term is generally limited. Reducing the pressure of other stressors or disturbances, especially those caused 2. How will climate change affect precipitation? by humankind, is one way to maintain the climate change response capacity and integrity. In human sys- The air’s capacity to retain water vapor increases as the tems, adaptive capacity is given by the ability to respond temperature increases. It is estimated that the amount to changes and maintain social welfare unchanged or of water vapor retained in the atmosphere has grown with the least possible damage. The assessment of consistently in parallel to the approximately 1ºC global this tends to be based on political (governance, stan- warming to date (2019). Because rainfall depends on dards/laws, institutions), economic (wealth, wealth dis- water vapor retained in the atmosphere, this means that tribution), and social (social capital, educational level, its intensity will increase and there is evidence that this beliefs) parameters. Therefore, in a highly developed is already happening. A warmer temperature also means society, with respected and educated government insti- increased evaporation, which accelerates the desiccation tutions, there will be greater adaptive capacity than in of the Earth’s surface, leading to increased warming and another that lacks these qualities. However, not all social an increase in drought frequency and intensity. Precipi- groups have the same capacities and opportunities, nor tation will increase where this is higher (higher latitudes) are they vulnerable or equally exposed. Therefore, the and will decrease where this is lower (subtropics), trends risk is not evenly spread out across a society. that are already occurring. 5. How should climate change risks be managed? 3. What is climate change adaptation and why must Risk management is based on knowledge of the charac- we put it into practice? teristics of the hazard, particularly its intensity, and the Climate change adaptation is a set of measures that vulnerability of the exposed elements. The interaction governments, communities, or private entities put into between these components determines the risk, and practice to avoid or reduce the impacts derived from when this materializes, impacts arise. The less is known climate risks resulting from climate change, risks that about the diverse risk components, the harder their man- are expected to increase overall or emerge as new agement, because we do not know what impacts we
38 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
will be facing. Given the changing nature of climate as de diciembre de 2017, http://www.bancomundial.org/es/topic/ greenhouse gas emissions rise, the risks will continue to climatechange/overview change and we won’t know exactly when, and there may Banco Mundial, 2019a: Datos de libre acceso del Banco Mundial: even be new risks. Many records of extreme weather and Indicadores. The World Bank Group, Washington, NY, USA. Sitio web climate events are being surpassed, and not by a little, consultado el 26 de abril de 2019, https://datos.bancomundial.org/ but by a lot, which means that certain events are becom- indicador ing more likely than we had anticipated based on our pre- Banco Mundial, 2019b: World Bank Country and Lending Groups. The vious climate. The future depends on the decisions that World Bank Group, Washington, NY, USA. Sitio web consultado el 26 de we make, i.e., it depends on the more or less ambitious abril de 2019, https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/ we are in the mitigation or implementation of adaptation articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups measures, which makes uncertainties multiply. This is Barros, V. e I. Camilloni, 2016: La Argentina y el Cambio Climático. De la why we need to adopt appropriate actions based on the Física a la Política. Editorial EUDEBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 265 pp. knowledge that we have at hand and we need to be Barry, R. & R. Chorney, 1992: Atmosphere, Weather and Climate. willing to revisit this regularly, as the conditions around Routledge, Chapman and Hall, Inc. New York, 392 pp. us continue to change, following an adaptive risk man- Bee, S., A. Atteridge, P. Pauw, P. Terpstra & P. Watkiss, 2016: agement process. Introduction. En: The Adaptation Finance Gap Report 2016 [Puig, D., A. Olhoff, S. Bee, B. Dickson & K. Alverson (eds.)]. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi, Kenya, pp 1-6. Acknowledgments Benaouda, M., M. González Ronquillo, L.T. Molina & O.A. Castelán Ortega, 2017: Estado de la investigación sobre emisiones de metano To Dr. Olga Viedma (UCLM) for her collaboration on the prepa- entérico y estrategias de mitigación en América Latina. Revista ration of the maps in this document. To Jorge Cortés, Jaime mexicana de ciencias agrícolas, 8(4), 965-974. Mendo, Fabio Scarano, Karina Miglioranza, Gustavo Nagy, Ali- Berrang-Ford, L., F. M. Wang, A. Lesnikowski, J. Ford & R. Biesbroek, cia Villalmizar, Sebastián Villasante, and Karol Ulate for their 2017: Towards the assessment of adaptation progress at the global collaboration on the descriptions of the coastal and marine level. En: The Adaptation Gap Report 2017 [Olhoff, A., H. Neufeldt, systems. To Carlos Lemus for his collaboration on Figure 1.13. P. Naswa & K. Dorkenoo (eds.)]. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi, Kenya, pp. 35-47 Blanco, E., M.A. Casado, M. Costa-Tenorio, R. Escribano, M. García- Antón, M. Génova, A. Gómez, F. Gómez, J.C. Moreno, C. Morla, Bibliography P. Regato & H. Sainz, 1997: Los bosques ibéricos. Una interpretación geobotánica. Ed. Planeta, Barcelona, España, 572 pp. Abell, R., M.L. Thieme, C. Revenga, M. Bryer, M. Kottelat, N. Bogutskaya, Brito, SB., A.P.M.A. Cunha, C.C. Cunningham, R.C. Alvalá, J.A. Marengo B. Coad, N. Mandrak, S.C. Balderas, W. Bussing, M.L.J. Stiassny, & M.A. Carvalho et al., 2018: Frequency, duration and severity of P. Skelton, G.R. Allen, P. Unmack, A. Naseka, R.Ng, N. Sindorf, J. drought in the Brazilian Semiarid. Int J Climatology, 38(2), 517-529. Robertson, E. Armijo, J.V. Higgins, T.J. Heibel, E. Wikramanayake, D. Olson, H.L. López, R.E. Reis, J.G. Lundberg, M.H. Sabaj Pérez Brosio, G., J.P. Jiménez e I. Ruelas, 2018: Territorial inequality, & P. Petry, 2008: Freshwater ecoregions of the world: a new map equalization transfers and asymmetric sharing of non-renewable of biogeographic units for freshwater biodiversity conservation. natural resources in Latin America. ECLAC-CEPAL, Santiago. BioScience, 58(5), 403-414. Buchner, B., C. Trabacchi, F. Mazza, D. Abramskiehn & D. Wang, ACNUR, 2019: Situación en Venezuela, UNHCR. Sitio web consultado el 2015: Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2015. Venice, Italy. 26 de abril de 2019, https://www.acnur.org/situacion-en-venezuela. Documento web consultado el 1 de septiembre de 2018, http:// html climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Global- Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-2015.pdf Alfaro, E., 2014: Principales forzantes del clima en la región Centroamericana y actividades recientes de pronóstico estacional. Calvo, E., 2010: Guía Metodológica para la Adaptación a los Impactos al Universidad de Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica. Documento web Cambio Climático en las ciudades y opción de mitigación de emisiones consultado el 1 de septiembre de 2018, https://www.gwp.org/ de Gases de Efecto Invernadero. Foro Ciudades para la Vida, Lima, globalassets/global/gwp-cam_files/ealfaro.pdf Perú. Documento web consultado el 1 de septiembre de 2018, http://hispagua.cedex.es/sites/default/files/hispagua_documento/ Armesto, J.J., C. Villagrán & M. Kalin Arroyo (eds.), 1991: Ecología de Guia.met_.adaptacion.frente.cambio.cli_.pdf los Bosques Nativos de Chile. Editorial Universitaria, Santiago, Chile, Capel Molina, J.J., 2000: El Clima de la Península Ibérica. Editorial Ariel, 469 pp. colección Ariel Geografía, Barcelona, España, 281 pp. Asadich, B. & N. Krakauer, 2015: Global trends in extreme precipitation Castro, F.S., 2009: Transferencia Alternativa de Riesgos en el Seguro de climate models versus observations. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci, 19, 877- Vida: Titulización de Riesgos. Instituto de Ciencias del Seguro, Mapfre, 891. Madrid, España. Documento web consultado el 1 de septiembre Alvarado, N. & R. Muggah, 2018: Crimen y violencia: Un obstáculo para de 2018, https://www.mapfre.com/ccm/content/documentos/ el desarrollo de las ciudades de América Latina y el Caribe. Banco fundacion/cs-seguro/libros/transferencia-alternativa-de-riesgos-en- Interamericano de Desarrollo, Washington DC, USA, 40 pp. el-seguro-de-vida-titulizacion-de-riesgos-141.pdf Banco Mundial, 2017: Entendiendo la Pobreza; Temas; Cambio CCSPJP, 2019: Las 50 ciudades más violentas del mundo 2018. Consejo Climático. Portal del Banco Mundial: Sitio web consultado el 20 Ciudadano para la Seguridad Pública y Justicia Penal (CCSPJP),
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 39 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
Ciudad de México. Sitio web consultado el 27 de marzo de 2019, web consultado el 20 de diciembre de 2017, http://www.consilium. http://www.seguridadjusticiaypaz.org.mx/seguridad/1567-estudio- europa.eu/es/press/press-releases/2017/10/17/climate-finance- las-50-ciudades-mas-violentas-del-mundo-2018 eu/ CELAC, 2013: Desarrollo productivo e industrialización en América Latina De Luis, M., J.C. González-Hidalgo, L.A. Longares & P. Stepánek, 2009: y el Caribe. CELAC y SELA, Caracas, Venezuela, 55 pp. Documento Seasonal precipitation trends in the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula web consultado el 1 de septiembre de 2018, http://www.sela. in second half of 20th century. Int. J. Climatol, 29(9), 1312-1323. org/media/265376/t023600005362-0-desarrollo_productivo_e_ Di Castri, F. & H.A. Mooney (eds.), 1973: Mediterranean Type industrializacion_en_alc-rev1.pdf Ecosystems: Origin and Structure. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, CEPAL, 2018: Medición de la pobreza por ingresos: actualización 408 pp. metodológica y resultados, Metodologías de la CEPAL, n.° 2, (LC/ Díaz-Carreño, M.Á., M. Sánchez-León & A. Díaz-Bustamante, 2016: PUB.2018/22-P). Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Inseguridad alimentaria en los estados de México: un estudio de sus Caribe (CEPAL), Santiago, Chile, 232 pp. principales determinantes. Sociedad y Territorio, 11(51), 459-483. CEPAL, 2019a: Panorama Social de América Latina, 2018. LC/ Dong, K., G. Hochman, Y. Zhang, R. Sun, H. Li & H. Liao, 2018: CO PUB.2019/3-P, Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe 2 emissions, economic and population growth, and renewable energy: (CEPAL), Santiago, Chile, 225 pp. Empirical evidence across regions. Energy Economics, 75, 180-192. CEPAL, 2019b: CEPALSTAT, Bases de Datos y Publicaciones Estadísticas. Doyle M.E & V.R. Barros, 2002: Midsummer low-level circulation and Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), precipitation in subtropical South America and related sea surface Santiago, Chile. Sitio web consultado el 26 de abril de 2019, https:// temperature anomalies in the South Atlantic, 2002. Journal of Climate, estadisticas.cepal.org/cepalstat/Portada.html 15(23): 3394-3410. CEPAL y Patrimonio Natural, 2013: Amazonia posible y sostenible. CEPAL Ecoregions, 2017: Interactive map, Resolve ©, http://ecoregions2017. y Patrimonio Natural, Bogotá, Colombia, 256 pp. Documento web appspot.com/ consultado el 1 de septiembre de 2018, https://www.cepal.org/ sites/default/files/news/files/amazonia_posible_y_sostenible.pdf EEA, 2013. Adaptation in Europe. Addressing risks and opportunities from climate change in the context of socio-economic developments. CFU, 2017: Climate Funds Update: The funds. Overseas Development EEA Report 3/2013. Copenhague, Denmark, DOI: 10.2800/50924 Institute, London and Heinrich Böll Stiftung, Germany. Sitio web consultado el 20 de diciembre de 2017, https://climatefundsupdate. Empinotti, V., L. De Stefano, P. Jacobi, Ú. Oswald-Spring, P. Arrojo- org/the-funds/ Agudo, M. Solanes, G. Donoso & P. Phumpiu-Chang, 2014: The role of stakeholders in water management. En: Water for Food CGEE & BM, 2016: Secas no Brasil: política e gestão proativas. Centro de and Wellbeing in Latin America and the Caribbean Social and Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos (CGEE) y Banco Mundial (BM), Brasília, Environmental Implications for a Globalized Economy [Willaarts, Brasil, 292 pp. Documento web consultado el 1 de septiembre de B.A., A. Garrido & M.R. Llamas (eds.)]. Routledge, Oxon y Nueva 2018, https://www.cgee.org.br/documents/10182/734063/seca_ York, pp. 317-342. brasil-web.pdf Espinoza Villar, J.C., J. Ronchail, J.L. Guyot, G. Cochonneau, F. Naziano, Chávez, F.P., A. Bertrand, R. Guevara-Carrasco, P. Soler & J. Csirke, W. Lavado, E. De Oliveira, R. Pombosag & P. Vauchel, 2009: Spatio- 2008: The northern Humboldt Current System: brief history, present temporal rainfall variability in the Amazon basin countries (Brazil, status and a view towards the future (editorial). Prog. Oceanogr. 79, Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, and Ecuador). Int. J. Climatol., 29(11), 1574- 95-105. 1594. Chen, C., I. Noble, J. Hellmann, J. Coffee, M. Murillo & N. Chawla, Estrela, T., M.A. Pérez-Martín & E. Vargas, 2012: Impacts of climate 2015: University of Notre Dame global adaptation index, country change on water resources in Spain. Hydrological Sciences Journal, index technical report. ND-GAIN, South Bend, IN, USA. Documento 57(6), 1154-1167. web consultado el 1 de septiembre de 2018, https://gain.nd.edu/ assets/254377/nd_gain_technical_document_2015.pdf Eurobarometer, 2017: Special Eurobarometer 470: Corruption. Eurobarometer, EU Data Portal, Brussels. Sitio web consultado el 26 Climate Watch, 2019: Historical GHG Emissions. World Resources de abril de 2019, http://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/ Institute, Washington DC. Sitio web consultado el 26 de abril de S2176_88_2_470_ENG 2019, https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions Eurostat, 2018: Your Key to European Statistics, Eurostat. European CNDH, 2018: Violencia política contra las mujeres en razón de género. Commission, Luxembourg. Sitio web consultado el 1 de octubre de FEPADE, INE, CEAV, INMUJER, México. Sitio web consultado 15 2018, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat de enero de 2018, http://www.cndh.org.mx/sites/all/doc/ OtrosDocumentos/Doc_2018_056.pdf Eurostat, 2019: People at risk of poverty or social exclusion. Eurostat, Luxembourg. Sitio web consultado el 26 de abril de 2019, https:// Consejo Europeo, 2017a: Conclusiones del Consejo sobre la financiación ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/People_at_ de la lucha contra el cambio climático. Portal del Consejo Europeo, risk_of_poverty_or_social_exclusion#Number_of_people_at_risk_of_ nota de prensa, 10 de octubre de 2017. Consejo Europeo, Unión poverty_or_social_exclusion Europea. Sitio web consultado el 20 de diciembre de 2017, http:// www.consilium.europa.eu/es/press/press-releases/2017/10/10/ Falvey, M. & R.D. Garreaud, 2009: Regional cooling in a warming world: conclusions-climate-change/ Recent temperature trends in the southeast Pacific and along the west coast of subtropical South America (1979-2006). Journal of Consejo Europeo, 2017b: Financiación de la lucha contra el cambio Geophysical Research, 114, D04102, DOI: 10.1029/2008JD010519 climático: en 2016 las contribuciones de la UE y los Estados miembros alcanzaron los 20-200 millones de euros. Portal del Consejo Europeo, Fearnside, Ph.M., 2000: Global warming and tropical land-use change: nota de prensa, 17/10/2017, Consejo Europeo, Unión Europea. Sitio greenhouse gas emissions from biomass burning, decomposition
40 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
and soils in forest conversion, shifting cultivation and secondary continental shelf; insights into current conservation and management vegetation. Climatic Change, n.º 46, pp. 115-158. tools. Ecological Indicators, 93, 533-546. FEOW, 2015: Freshwater Ecoregions of the World (FEOW), última González-Elizondo, M.S., M. González-Elizondo, J.A. Tena-Flores, L. actualización 2 de octubre 2015, WWF/TNC. Sitio web consultado el Ruacho-González e I.L. López-Enríquez, 2012: Vegetación de la Sierra 26 de abril de 2019, http://www.feow.org/ Madre Occidental, México: una síntesis. Act. Bot. Mex., 100, 351-403. Fernández-Montes, S. & F.S. Rodrigo, 2012: Trends in seasonal indices Hartmann, D.L., A.M.G. Klein Tank, M. Rusticucci, L.V. Alexander, of daily temperature extremes in the Iberian Peninsula, 1929-2005. S. Brönnimann, Y. Charabi, F.J. Dentener, E.J. Dlugokencky, D.R. International Journal of Climatology, 32(15), 2320-2332. Easterling, A. Kaplan, B.J. Soden, P.W. Thorne, M. Wild & P.M. Zhai, 2013: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface. En: Climate Change Fick, S.E. & R.J. Hijmans, 2017: WorldClim 2: new 1-km spatial 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International journal the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate of climatology, 37(12), 4302-4315. Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Figueroa, S.N. & C.A. Nobre, 1990: Precipitation distribution over central Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex & P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge and western tropical South America. Climanalise, 5(6), 36-45. University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom y New York, NY, USA. Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Hijmans, R., S. Cameron, J. Parra, P. Jones & A. Jarvis, 2005: Very high Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor & P.M. resolution interpolated climate surface for global land areas. Int. J. Midgley (eds.), 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Climatol., 25(15), 1965-1978. Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Cambridge University Hoegh-Guldberg, O., D. Jacob, M. Taylor, M. Bindi, S. Brown, I. Camilloni, Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp. A. Diedhiou, R. Djalante, K.L. Ebi, F. Engelbrecht, J. Guiot, Y. Hijioka, Fisch, G., J.A. Marengo & C.A. Nobre, 1998: Uma revisão geral sobre o S. Mehrotra, A. Payne, S.I. Seneviratne, A. Thomas, R. Warren & G. clima da Amazônia. Acta Amazonica, 28(2), 101-126. Zhou, 2018: Impacts of 1.5 ºC Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems. En: Global Warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on Galindo, L.M., J. Samaniego, A. Beltrán, J. Ferrer Carbonell & J.E. the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels Alatorre, 2017: Portafolio de políticas públicas de adaptación al cambio and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context climático y mitigación de sus efectos con beneficios adicionales o «sin of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, arrepentimiento» en América Latina. Estudios del Cambio Climático en sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson- América Latina, Euroclima-CEPAL, LC/TS.2017/127, Santiago, Chile. Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, Documento web consultado el 1 de septiembre de 2018, https:// A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/42725 Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Gallego, M.C., R.M. Trigo, J.M. Vaquero, M. Brunet, J.A. García, J. Sigró & Tignor & T. Waterfield (eds.)]. En prensa. M.A. Valente 2011: Trends in frequency indices of daily precipitation IBGE, 2010: Atlas do Censo Demogrâfico 2010. Instituto Brasileiro de over the Iberian Peninsula during the last century. J. Geophys. Res., Geografia e Estatística, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. Sitio web consultado el 116, D02109, DOI: 10.1029/2010JD014255 1 de septiembre de 2018, http://www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/ GCF, 2017: Green Climate Fund Portal, Republic of Korea. Sitio web populacao/censo2010/default_atlas.shtm consultado el 20 de diciembre de 2017, http://www.greenclimate. IBGE, 2014: Pesquisa Nacional de Amostra de Domicílios, Segurança fund/home Alimentar. Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, Rio de GEF/PNUD, 2013: Programa de Acciones Estratégicas (PAE) para el Janeiro, Brasil. Sitio web consultado el 1 de septiembre de 2018, «Manejo Sostenible de los Recursos Marinos Vivos compartidos del https://biblioteca.ibge.gov.br/visualizacao/livros/liv91984.pdf Gran Ecosistema Marino del Caribe y Regiones Adyacentes». Proyecto IDEAM, 2015: Atlas Climatológico de Colombia. Instituto de Hidrología, CLME, GEF ID 1032/ PNUD PIMS ID 2193 (2009-2013), http://www. Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM), Bogotá D.C., Colombia. clmeproject.org Sitio web consultado el 1 de septiembre de 2018, atlas.ideam.gov. Gentry, A.H., 1988: Tree species richness of upper Amazonian forests, co/visorAtlasClimatologico.html Proc. Natl. Acad. of Sci., 85(1), 156-159. INEGI, 2008: Referencias geográficas y extensión territorial de México. Glynn, P.W., J.J. Alvarado, S. Banks, J. Cortés, J.S. Feingold, C. Jiménez, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, Aguascalientes, México. J.E. Maragos, P. Martínez, J.L. Maté, D.A. Moanga, S. Navarrete, Documento web consultado el 1 de septiembre de 2018, http:// H. Reyes-Bonilla, B. Riegl, F. Rivera, B. Vargas-Ángel, E.A. Wieters www.inegi.org.mx/inegi/spc/doc/internet/1-geografiademexico/ & F.A. Zapata, 2017: Eastern Pacific coral reef provinces, coral man_refgeog_extterr_vs_enero_30_2088.pdf community structure and composition: An overview. En: Coral Reefs Inzunza, J., 2018: Meteorología descriptiva, Capítulo 15, «Los climas of the Eastern Pacific: Persistence and Loss in a Dynamic Environment. de Chile». Documento web consultado el 1 de septiembre de 2018, [Glynn, P.W., D. Manzello e I. Enochs (eds.)], pp. 107-116. Coral Reefs http://nimbus.com.uy/weather/Cursos/Curso_2006/Textos%20 of the World 8. Springer Science+Business Media, Dordrecht. complementarios/Meteorologia%20descriptiva_Inzunza/cap15_ Gobierno de Andorra, 2018: Andorra en xifres, 2018. Govern d’Andorra, Inzunza_Climas%20de%20Chile.pdf Ministeri de Finances, Departament d’Estadística, Andorra. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Documento web consultado en enero de 2020, https://www. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the estadistica.ad/serveiestudis/publicacions/Publicacions/Andorra%20 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, en%20Xifres%20taules.pdf J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden & C.E. Hanson, (eds.)]., Cambridge Gomes, I., S. Pérez-Jorge, L. Peteiro, J. Andrade, J. Bueno-Pardo, V. University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp. Quintino, A.M. Rodrigues, M. Azevedo, A. Vanreusel, H. Queiroga IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Agard, J., E.L.F. Schipper, J. Birkmann, & K. Deneudt, 2018: Marine biological value along the Portuguese M. Campos, C. Dubeux, Y. Nojiri, L. Olsson, B. Osman-Elasha, M.
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 41 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
Pelling, M.J. Prather, M.G. Rivera-Ferre, O.C. Ruppel, A. Sallenger, K.R. Leal de Quadro, M., L. Ribas Machado, S. Calbete, N. Marinho Batista Smith, A.L. St. Clair, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea & T.E. Bilir (eds.)]. & G. Sampaio de Oliveira, 2018: Climatologia de precipitacao e En: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. temperatura, climanalise.cptec.inpe.br/~rclimanl/boletim/cliesp10a/ Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth chuesp.html Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Lehmann, C.E.R., T.M. Anderson, M. Sankaran, S.I. Higgins, S. [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, Archibald, W.A. Hoffmann, N.P. Hanan, R.J. Williams, R.J. Fensham, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, J. Felfili, L.B. Hutley, J. Ratnam, J. San Jose, R., Franklin D. Montes, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea & L.L. White J. Russell-Smith, C.M. Ryan, G. Durigan, P. Hiernaux, R. Haidar, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom y D.M.J.S. Bowman & W.J. Bond, 2014: Savanna vegetation-fire- New York, NY, USA, pp. 1757-1776. climate relationships differ among continents. Science, 343(6170), Joffre, R., S. Rambal & J.P. Ratte, 1999: The dehesa system of southern 548-552. Spain and Portugal as a natural ecosystem mimic. Agroforestry Lesnikowski, A., J. Ford, L. Berrang-Ford & R. Biesbroek, 2017: Systems, 45(1-3), 57-79. Assessing adaptation progress at the global level: conceptual and Johnson, A., 1976: The Climate of Peru, Bolivia and Ecuador, Climates methodological issues. En: The Adaptation Gap Report 2017 [Olhoff of Central and South America, vol. 12, 147-188. World Survey of A., H. Neufeldt, P. Naswa & K. Dorkenoo (eds.)]. United Nations Climatology. Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Amsterdam. Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi, Kenya, pp. 15-21 Kappelle, M., 2005: Hacia una breve descripción del concepto «páramo». Magalhaes A. et al., 1988: The effects of climate variations on agriculture En: Páramos de Costa Rica [Kappelle, M. & S.P. Horn (eds.)]. Editorial in Northeast Brazil. En: The Impact of Climate Variations on Agriculture, INBio, Heredia, Costa Rica, 29-36. vol. 2. Assessments in semiarid regions [Parry M, T. Carter, N Konijn (eds)]. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Amsterdam, pp 277-304. Kirtman, B., S.B. Power, J.A. Adedoyin, G.J. Boer, R. Bojariu, I. Camilloni, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A.M. Fiore, M. Kimoto, G.A. Meehl, M. Magrin, G.O., J.A.Marengo, J.-P. Boulanger, M.S. Buckeridge, E. Prather, A. Sarr, C. Schär, R. Sutton, G.J. Van Oldenborgh, G. Vecchi Castellanos & S. Vicuña (eds.), 2014: Central and South America, & H.J. Wang, 2013: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and En: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Predictability. En: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex & T.E. Bilir & L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 1499-1566. P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom y New York, NY, USA. Magrin, G., 2015: Adaptación al cambio climático en América Latina y el Caribe. Documentos de proyecto, CEPAL, Naciones Unidas, Santiago, Klein, R.J.T., G.F. Midgley, B.L. Preston, M. Alam, F.G.H. Berkhout, K. Chile, 88 pp. Documento web consultado el 1 de septiembre de 2018, Dow & M.R. Shaw, 2014: Adaptation opportunities, constraints, and https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/39842/1/ limits. En: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. S1501318_es.pdf Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Marengo, J.A., L.S. Borma, D.A. Rodriguez, P. Pinho, W.R. Soares & L.A. Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, Alves, 2013: Recent Extremes of Drought and Flooding in Amazonia: M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, Vulnerabilities and Human Adaptation, American Journal of Climate R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, Change, 2, 87-96. P.R. Mastrandrea & L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Marengo, J.A., L.M. Alves, R. Alvala, A.P. Cunha, S. Brito & O.L. Moraes, Cambridge, United Kingdom y New York, NY, USA, pp. 899-943. 2018a: Climatic characteristics of the 2010-2016 drought in the Kodama, Y.M., 1992: Large-scale common features of subtropical semiarid Northeast Brazil region. Anais da Academia Brasileira de precipitation zones (the Baiu frontal zone, the SPCZ, and the ZCAS) Ciências, 90(2), 1973-1985. Part I: Characteristics of subtropical frontal zones. J. Meteor. Soc. Marengo, J.A., C.A. Souza, K. Thonicke, C. Burton, K. Halladay, R. Betts, Japan, 70(4), 813-835. & W.R. Soares 2018b: Changes in climate and land use over the Lavell, A., M. Oppenheimer, C. Diop, J. Hess, R. Lempert, J. Li, R. Amazon Region: current and future variability and trends. Frontiers in Muir-Wood & S. Myeong, 2012: Climate change: new dimensions in Earth Science, 6, 228, DOI: 10.3389/feart.2018.00228 disaster risk, exposure, vulnerability, and resilience. En: Managing Marengo, J.A., A.P. Cunha, W.R. Soares, R.R. Torres, L.M. Alves, S.S. the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change de Barros Brito, L.A. Cuartas, K. Leal, G. Ribeiro Neto, R.C.S. Alvalá Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, & A. R. Magalhaes, 2019: Increase Risk of Drought in the Semiarid K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Lands of Northeast Brazil Due to Regional Warming above 4 C. En: Tignor & P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups Climate Change Risks in Brazil [C. A. Nobbre, J.A. Marengo & W.R. I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Soares [eds.], Springer, Cham., pp. 181-200 Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK y New York, NY, USA, Marone, E., G.F. Dutra, A.P.L. Prates, M.L.G. Soares & M.A. Gonçalves, pp. 25-64. 2012: Costeiro e Marinho. En: Biomas Brasileiros: Retratos de um Latinobarómetro, 2018: Informe Latinobarómetro 2018, Corporación País Plural [Scarano, F.R., I.L. Santos, A.C.I. Martins, J.M.C. Silva, Latinobarómetro, Santiago de Chile, 82 pp. Documento web A.L. Guimarães & R.A. Mittermeier (eds.)]. Casa da Palavra, Rio de consultado el 27 de marzo de 2019, http://www.latinobarometro. Janeiro, pp. 236-271. org/lat.jsp Marquet, P.A., F. Bozinovic, G.A. Bradshaw, C. Cornelius, H. González, Lecha Estela, L., L. Paz & B. Lapinel, 1994: El Clima de Cuba. Editorial J.R. Gutiérrez, E.R. Hajek, J.A. Lagos, F. López-Cortés, L. Núñez, E.F. Academia, La Habana, Cuba, 186 pp. Roselló, C. Santoro, H. Samaniego, V.G. Standen, J.C. Torres-Mura &
42 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
F.M. Jaksic, 1998: Los ecosistemas del desierto de Atacama y área En: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. andina adyacente en el norte de Chile. Revista Chilena de Historia Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group Natural, 71, 593-617. II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, McKinsey Global Institute, 2015: The Power of Parity: How Advancing M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, Women’s Equality Can Add $12 Trillion to Global Growth. McKinsey & R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, Company©. Documento web consultado el 1 de septiembre de 2018, P.R. Mastrandrea & L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Featured%20 Cambridge, United Kingdom y New York, NY, USA, pp. 833-868. Insights/Employment%20and%20Growth/How%20advancing%20 womens%20equality%20can%20add%2012%20trillion%20to%20 Nogués-Paegle, J. & K.C. Mo, 1997: Alternating wet and dry conditions global%20growth/MGI%20Power%20of%20parity_Full%20report_ over South America during summer. Monthly Weather Review, 125(2), September%202015.ashx 279-291. MEOW, 2007: Marine Ecoregions of the World: A Bioregionalization of OAS, 2006: Ecosistemas Presentes en la Cuenca del Plata. Organization Coastal and Shelf Areas. World Wildlife Fund (WWF), Washington DC, of American States, Washington, USA. Sitio web consultado el 1 de USA. Sitio web consultado el 26 de abril de 2019, https://www. septiembre de 2018, www.oas.org/dsd/plata/ecosistemasf.htm worldwildlife.org/publications/marine-ecoregions-of-the-world-a- Oliveira-Filho, A.T. & J.A. Ratter, 2002: Vegetation physiognomies and bioregionalization-of-coastal-and-shelf-areas Woody Flora of the Cerrado Biome. En: The Cerrados of Brazil - Ecology Miller, A. 1976: The Climate of Chile, Climates of Central and South and Natural History of a Neotropical Savanna [Oliveira P.S. & R.J. America, vol. 12, 113-146. World Survey of Climatology. Elsevier Marquis (eds.)]. Columbia University Press, New York, NY, USA, pp. Scientific Publishing Company, Amsterdam. 91-120. Miloslavich, P., J.M. Díaz, E. Klein, J.J. Alvarado, C. Díaz et al., 2010: Olson, D.M., E. Dinerstein, E.D. Wikramanayake, N.D. Burgess, Marine biodiversity in the Caribbean: Regional estimates and distribution G.V.N. Powell, C.E. Underwood, J.A. D’Amico, I. Itoua, H.E. Strand, patterns. Plos One, 5(8): e11916, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. J.C. Morrison, C.J. Loucks, T.F. Allnutt, T.H. Ricketts, Y. Kura, J.F. pone.0011916 Lamoreux, W.W. Wettengel, P. Hedao & K.R. Kassem, 2001: Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: A new map of life on Earth. Bioscience, Mimura, N., R.S. Pulwarty, D.M. Duc, I. Elshinnawy, M.H. Redsteer, H.-Q. 51(11), 933-938. Huang, J.N. Nkem & R.A. Sanchez Rodriguez, 2014: Adaptation planning and implementation. En: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Olsson, L., M. Opondo, P. Tschakert, A. Agrawal, S.H. Eriksen, S. Ma, L.N. Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Perch & S.A. Zakieldeen, 2014: Livelihoods and poverty. En: Climate Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea & L.L. [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, y New York, NY, USA, pp. 869-898. E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea & L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom y Monroy-Gómez-Franco, L.Á., 2016: Los mexicanos en la distribución del New York, NY, USA, pp. 793-832. ingreso. Nexos, 16 de mayo. Oppenheimer, M., M. Campos, R.Warren, J. Birkmann, G. Luber, Mora, C., B. Dousset, I.R. Caldwell, F.E. Powell, R.C. Geronimo, C.R. B. O’Neill & K. Takahashi, 2014: Emergent risks and key Bielecki, C.W.W. Counsell, B.S. Dietrich, E.T. Johnston, L.V. Louis, vulnerabilities. En: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, M.P. Lucas, M.M. McKenzie, A.G. Shea, H. Tseng, T. W. Giambelluca, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution L.R. Leon, E. Hawkins & C. Trauernich, 2017: Global risk of deadly of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the heat. Nature Climate Change, vol. 7, pp 501-506. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Morrone, J.J., 2001: A formal definition of the Paramo-Punan Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. biogeographic subregion and its provinces, based mainly on animal Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. taxa. Rev. Mus. Argentina Cienc. Nat., 3(1), 1-12. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea & L.L. White Mosiño, P. & E. García, 1974: The climate of Mexico. En: World Survey (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom of Climatology, vol. 11, Climates of North America [Bryson, R.A. & y New York, NY, USA, pp. 1039-1099. F.K. Hare (eds.)]. Elsevier Publishing Company, Amsterdam, London Oswald Spring, Ú., 2012: Vulnerabilidad social en eventos hidrometeoro- y New York, pp 345-404. lógicos extremos: una comparación entre los huracanes Stan y Wilma Mujica, A. & C. Pavez, 2008: Eufáusidos de la zona central de Chile, en México, Revista Internacional de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades, archipiélago Juan Fernández e islas Desventuradas. Lat. Am. J. Aquat. Sociotam, 22(2), 125-145. Res., 36(2): 283-300. Oswald Spring, Ú., H.G. Brauch, G. Edwards & J.T. Roberts, 2013: The NASEM, 2019: Integrating Health Care and Social Services for People impact of climate change on human security in Latin America and with Serious Illness: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington DC, The the Caribbean. En: Handbook on Climate Change and Human Securi- National Academies Press, https://doi.org/10.17226/25350 ty [M.R. Redclift & M. Grasso (eds.)]. Edward Elgar Publishing, pp. 227- 253. ND-GAIN, 2019: ND-GAIN Country Index. Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative, Notre Dame, USA. Sitio web consultado el 26 de abril de Oswald Spring, Ú., S.E. Serrano-Oswald, A. Estrada-Álvarez, F. Flo- 2019, https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/ res-Palacios, M. Rios-Everardo, H. G. Brauch, T.E. Ruiz-Pantoja, C. Lemus-Ramirez, A. Estrada-Villanueva & M.T.M. Cruz-Rivera, 2014: Noble, I.R., S. Huq, Y.A. Anokhin, J. Carmin, D. Goudou, F.P. Lansigan, B. Vulnerabilidad Social y Género entre Migrantes Ambientales. CRIM- Osman-Elasha & A. Villamizar, 2014: Adaptation needs and options. DGAPA-UNAM, Cuernavaca, México, 556 pp.
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 43 Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
OTCA, 2015: Organización del Tratado de Cooperación Amazónica, University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom y New York, NY, USA, Brasilia, Brasil. Sitio web consultado el 1 de septiembre de 2018: pp. 109-230. www.otca-oficial.info Serrano-Notivoli, R., S. Beguería, M.A. Saz, M. de Luis, 2018: Recent PNUD, 2018: Índices e indicadores de desarrollo humano. Actualización trends reveal decreasing intensity of daily precipitation in Spain. estadística de 2018. Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el International Journal of Climatology, 38, 4211-4224, DOI: 10.1002/ Desarrollo, Nueva York, USA, 123 pp. joc.5562 Poushter, J. & D. Manevich, 2017: Globally, People Point to ISIS Silva, J.S.V., M.M. Abdon, A. Boock & M.P. Silva, 1998: Delimitation of and Climate Change as Leading Security Threats. Pew Research the Brazilian Pantanal and its sub-regions. Braz. J. Agric. Res., 33, Center, Washington DC, USA, 31 pp. Documento web consultado 1703-1713. el 1 de septiembre de 2018, http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/ Soriano, A., 1983: Deserts and semideserts of Patagonia. En: fichero/OtrasPublicaciones/Internacional/2017/Pew-Research- Ecosystems of the world: temperate deserts and semideserts First Center_2017.07.13_Global-Threats_Full-Report.pdf edition, vol. 5. [N.E. West (ed.)]. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 423-460. Prohaska, F., 1976: The climate of Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, Soriano, A., 1991: Rio De Plata grasslands. En: Ecosystems of the world: vol. 12, Climates of Central and South America. En: World Survey natural grasslands, 1.ª edición, vol. 8A [R.T. Coupland (ed.)]. Elsevier, of Climatology. Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Amsterdam, Amsterdam, pp. 367-408. 13-122. SMHI, 2008: Conferencia de los directores de los Servicios Rojas, F., 2018: La seguridad y la paz en América Latina: nuevos Meteorológicos e Hidrológicos Iberoamericanos. Sitio web consultado desafíos, nuevos derroteros. En: Riesgos socioambientales, paz y el 1 de septiembre de 2018, http://www.meteo-iberoamericana.com/ seguridad en América Latina [Oswald Spring, Ú & S.E. Serrano Oswald, objetivos.htm (coords.)]. CRIM-UNAM, Cuernavaca, México, pp. 325-359. Snow, J., 1976: The Climate of Northern South America. Climates Redón, J. & W. Quilhot, 1977: Los líquenes de Isla Navarino. I. Estudio of Central and South America, vol. 12, 113-146. World Survey of sistemático y ecológico preliminar. Serie Científica Instituto Antártico Climatology. Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Amsterdam. Chileno, 5, 65-70. Spalding, M.D., H.E. Fox, G.R. Allen, N. Davidson, Z.A. Ferdaña, M. Rezende, C.L., F.R. Scarano, E.D. Assad, C.A. Joly, J.P. Metzger, B.B.N. Finlayson, B.S. Halpern, M.A. Jorge, A. Lombana, S.A. Lourie, K.D. Strassburg, M. Tabarelli, G.A. Fonseca & R.A. Mittermeier, 2018: From Martin, E. McManus, J. Molnar, C.A. Recchia & J. Robertson, 2007: hotspot to hopespot: An opportunity for the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Marine ecoregions of the world: a bioregionalization of coastal and Perspect. Ecol. Conserv., 16, 208-214. shelf areas. BioScience, 57(7), 573-583. Rodrigo, F.S. & R.M. Trigo, 2007: Trends in daily rainfall in the Iberian Templado, J., E. Ballesteros, I. Galparsoro, A. Borja, A. Serrano, L. Peninsula from 1951 to 2002. Int. J. Climatol., 27(4), 513-529. Martín & A. Brito, 2012: Inventario Español de Hábitats y Especies Román-Collado, R. & A. V. Morales-Carrión, 2018: Towards a sustainable Marinos: Guía Interpretativa- Inventario Español de Hábitats Marinos. growth in Latin America: A multiregional spatial decomposition Ministerio de Agricultura, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente, Madrid. Documento web consultado el 26 de abril de 219, https://www. analysis of the driving forces behind CO2 emissions changes. Energy Policy, 115, 273-280. miteco.gob.es/es/costas/temas/proteccion-medio-marino/GUIA%20 INTERP_HABITATS_WEB_tcm30-157264.pdf Ropelewski, C. & M. Harpert, 1987: Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Terán, M. de & L. Solé Sabarís, 1954a: Geografía de España y Portugal, Mon. Wea. Rev., 115(8), 1600-1626. tomo I. Montaner y Simón S.A., Barcelona, España, 494 pp. Rundel, P. W., M.T.K. Arroyo, R.M. Cowling, J.E. Keeley, 2018: Fire and Terán, M. de & L. Solé Sabarís, 1954b: Geografía de España y Portugal, tomo II. Montaner y Simón S.A., Barcelona, España, 316 pp. Plant Diversification in Mediterranean-Climate Regions. Frontiers in Plant Science, vol. 9, 851 pp. Trabacchi, C., G. Campillo, S. Ockenden, I. Gallo, P. Kurukulasuriya, J. Manda, A. Mackay, M. Mirabile & C. Watson, 2016. En: The Samaniego, J. & H. Schneider, 2015: Financiamiento para el cambio Adaptation Finance Gap Report 2016 [Puig, D., A. Olhoff, S. Bee, B. climático en América Latina y el Caribe en 2015. Comisión Económica Dickson & K. Alverson (eds.)]. United Nations Environment Programme para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), Santiago, Chile, 74 pp. (UNEP), Nairobi, Kenya, pp. 21-29. Scarano, F.R. & P. Ceotto, 2015: Brazilian Atlantic forest: impact, Transparency International, 2018: Corruption Perceptions Index 2017. vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. Biodivers. Conserv., Transparency International, Berlin, Germany. Sitio web consultado el 24(11), 2319-2331. 26 de abril de 2019, https://www.transparency.org/cpi2018 Sillmann, J., V.V. Kharin, F.W. Zwiers, X. Zhang & D. Bronaugh, 2013: Tuhkanen, S., 1992: The climate of Tierra del Fuego from a vegetation Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part geographical point of view and its ecoclimatic counterparts elsewhere. 2. Future climate projections. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 2473-2493. Acta Bot. Fenn, 145, 1-65. Seneviratne, S.I., N. Nicholls, D. Easterling, C.M. Goodess, S. Kanae, J. Ulate, K., C. Sánchez, A. Sánchez-Rodríguez, D. Alonso, O. Aburto- Kossin, Y. Luo, J. Marengo, K. McInnes, M. Rahimi, M. Reichstein, A. Oropeza & L. Huato-Soberanis, 2016: Latitudinal regionalization of Sorteberg, C. Vera & X. Zhang, 2012: Changes in climate extremes epibenthic macroinvertebrate communities on rocky reefs in the Gulf and their impacts on the natural physical environment. En: Managing of California. Marine Biology Research, 12(4), 389-401, https://doi. the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change org/10.1080/17451000.2016.1143105 Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Ulate, K., T. Alcoverro, R. Arthur, O. Aburto-Oropeza, C. Sánchez & L. Tignor & P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I Huato-Soberanis, 2018: Conventional MPAs are not as effective as and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge community co-managed areas in conserving top-down control in the
44 RIOCCADAPT REPORT Chapter 1 – Conceptual Framework and Regional Context
Gulf of California. Biological Conservation, 228 (septiembre), 100-109, Veloso, A.L., E.V.S.B. Sampaio & F.G.C. Pareyn, 2002: Ecorregiões: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.09.033 Propostas Para o Bioma Caatinga. Associação Plantas do Nordeste, UNEP, 2016: The Adaptation Finance Gap Report 2016 [Puig, D., A. Instituto de Conservação Ambiental and The Nature Conservancy do Olhoff, S. Bee, B. Dickson & K. Alverson (eds.)]. United Nations Brasil, Recife, Brasil, 72 pp. Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi, Kenya, 50 pp. Vera, C.S. & L. Díaz, 2015: Anthropogenic influence on summer UNEP, 2017: The Adaptation Gap Report 2017 [Olhoff A., H. Neufeldt, P. precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models. Int. J. Naswa & K. Dorkenoo (eds.)]. United Nations Environment Programme Climatol., 35(10), 3172-3177. (UNEP), Nairobi, Kenya, 62 pp. Vincent, L.A., T.C. Peterson, V. Barros, M.B. Marino, M. Rusticucci, UNICEF, 2017: Informe Anual México, CDMX, UNICEF. G. Carrasco, E. Ramirez, L.M. Alves, T. Ambrizzi, M.A. Berlato, A.M. Grimm, J.A. Marengo, L. Molion, D.F. Moncunill, E. Rebello, Y.M.T. UNFCCC, 1992: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. United Nations, New York. Documento web consultado el 25 de abril de Anunciação, J. Quintana, J.L. Santos, J. Baez, G. Coronel, J. Garcia, 2019, https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf I. Trebejo, M. Bidegain, M.R. Haylock & D. Karoly, 2005: Observed trends in indices of daily temperature extremes in South America UNFCCC, 2015: Adoption of the Paris Agreement. Informe n.º FCCC/ 1960-2000. J. Climate, 18, 5011-5023. CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1. Sitio web consultado el 1 de septiembre de 2018, http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf Vicente-Serrano, S.M., J.I. Lopez-Moreno, S. Beguería, J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, A. Sanchez-Lorenzo, J.M. García-Ruiz, C. Azorin-Molina, E. Morán- UNFCCC, 2019: United Nations Climate Change Portal: Home. UNFCCC, Tejeda, J. Revuelto, R. Trigo, F. Coelho & F. Espejo, 2014: Evidence United Nations. Sitio web consultado el 25 de abril de 2019, https:// of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern unfccc.int/ Europe. Environmental Research Letters, 9(4), 044001. Urbieta, I.R., G. Zavala, J. Bedia, J. M. Gutiérrez, J. San Miguel-Ayanz, WEF, 2016: Global Gender Gap Report. World Economic Forum, Cologny/ A. Camia, J.E. Keeley & J.M. Moreno, 2015: Fire activity as a function of fire-weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate Geneva, Switzerland. Documento web consultado el 1 de septiembre across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA. de 2018, http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GGGR_2017.pdf Environ. Res. Lett., 10(11), DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/ Wesselbaum, D. & A. Aburn, 2019: Gone with the wind: International 114013 migration. Global and Planetary Change, 178, 96-109. Urrutia-Jalabert, R., M.E. González, A. González-Reyes, A. Lara & R. WorldClim, 2016: WorldClim Version2. WorldClim Global Climate Data. Garreaud, 2018: Climate variability and forest fires in central and Sitio web consultado el 10 de mayo de 2019, http://worldclim.org/ south central Chile. Ecosphere, 9(4), e02171. 10.1002/ecs2.2171 version2 USGS, 2010: USGS EROS Archive - Digital Elevation - Global Multi- resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010), USA. Sitio Yáñez-Arancibia, A. & A.L. Lara-Domínguez, 1999: Los manglares de web consultado el 26 de abril de 2019, https://www.usgs.gov/ América Latina en la encrucijada. En: Ecosistemas de Manglar en centers/eros/science/usgs-eros-archive-digital-elevation-global- América Tropical. Instituto de Ecología A.C., México, UICN/ORMA, multi-resolution-terrain-elevation?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt- Costa Rica, NOAA/NMFS Silver Spring MD, USA, 9-16. science_center_objects Zak, M., M. Cabido, D. Cáceres & S. Díaz, 2008: What drives accelerated Vargas Ulate, G., 2001: Las lluvias en América Central: Una climatología land cover change in central Argentina? Synergistic consequences geográfica. Anuario de Estudios Centroamericanos, Universidad de of climatic, socioeconomic, and technological factors. Environmental Costa Rica, 27(2), 07-19. Management, 42, 181-189.
RIOCCADAPT REPORT 45