AIR TRAVEL – GREENER BY DESIGN

ANNUAL REPORT 2019-2020

Greener DESIGNby NASA

Greener by Design

Executive Committee

Prof Peter Bearman Jonathon Counsell Roger Gardner Dr John Green Ian Jopson Dr Ray Kingcombe Geoff Maynard Kevin Morris Prof Ian Poll Dr Marc Stettler Robert Whitfield Dr Richard Wilson Roger Wiltshire

Front cover: Harbour Air DHC-2 Beaver fitted with Magnix all-electric motor. Harbour Air.

2 Royal Aeronautical Society GREENER BY DESIGN ANNUAL REPORT 2019-2020

Contents

Introduction 4 Conference Report 6 Carbon Pricing through effective Market-Based Measures 16 Atmospheric Science 22 Technology 28 Operations Report 35

Top: Magnix all-electric nine (plus two crew) Cessna 208B Grand Caravan on test. Magnix.

Greener by Design Annual Report 2019-2020 3 Introduction

Introduction

Unprecedented and dramatic climatic events have income and air travel. The effects could be more far hit the headlines in the last year. Whether It has been reaching if a vaccine to protect us against the virus frequent severe storms, forest fires, sandstorms, is elusive. Several years are likely to elapse before air severe drought or extensive flooding, it has brought travel returns to 2019 levels. home to almost everyone, sadly in many cases quite literally, the reality of climate change. We ignore it Ironically the lockdown has also cut air pollution

at our and our children’s peril. It should come as no by 50%, and CO2 emissions perhaps by as much surprise to anyone who lives in a democracy that as 20%. So while the virus with its personal tragic interest in, and scrutiny of, environmental issues has consequences for many is still occupying the continued to grow rapidly – almost matching China’s headlines, the lockdown shows what could be done

growth in CO2 emissions, now at 28% of the world about cutting CO2 emissions if the motivation was total! strong enough. Many environmental groups around the world are putting pressure on Governments to be This pressure led the UK Government last summer brave and take more radical action. While the Covid to tighten the requirements in the Climate Change pandemic has been a terrible tragedy for many, the Act 2008. Instead of the previous target of an 80% world needs to resolve to tackle Climate Change

reduction in domestic CO2 emissions between 1990 with the same urgency and determination to avoid a and 2050, the new target is net zero by 2050. climate catastrophe of wide-ranging consequences Although this legislation excludes international in the latter part of this century. aviation and shipping, the Government stated in Parliament that they plan to include these later and BA was the first airline that committed to do what it

asked the Climate Change Committee (CCC) to takes to achieve net zero CO2 emissions on all their provide advice on how this could be done. flights by 2050, a lead now followed by many others. However, Covid-19 will have a major impact on these In September 2019 the CCC responded by doubting plans. The 20th anniversary GBD conference will the greater use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel or the therefore be a virtual conference on the subject – introduction of all electric aircraft before 2050. Recovery strategy with climate gain – scheduled for Instead they advocated strong demand management 3 and 4 November in London. We hope you will be to halve anticipated growth by 2050. These are, able to join us and also for a special ‘real’ conference

in GBD’s view, pessimistic assumptions which on the non-CO2 effects of Aviation on Global disregard the industry’s past record on innovation Warming in May 2021. and ignore research currently being undertaken.

However, in March 2020 all this was overtaken by the Covid-19 pandemic. Suddenly life for all of us changed dramatically with the lockdown. Air traffic plunged by over 90% and hopes for the annual holiday abroad this year evaporated. Social distancing, working from home and virtual meetings have become the new norm. How much of this will change our attitudes and habits permanently Geoff Maynard remains to be seen, but it is bound to have a Chair significant short-term effect on the economy, our Greener by Design

4 Royal Aeronautical Society The CTi fan system on the Advanced Low Pressure System engine demonstrator. Rolls-Royce.

Greener by Design Report 2018-2019 5 Conference Report

Singapore Airlines’ A350-900 Flight SQ31 being fuelled for the first Green Package flight from San Francisco to Singapore on 1 May 2017, powered by a combination of sustainable biofuel produced from used cooking oils and conventional jet fuel. Airbus.

Greener by Design Conference Report

INTRODUCTION He stressed that the three sectors overlap, and that they all require innovative leaders. The Society’s role The 2019 Greener by Design Conference ‘Aviation was to foster, encourage and support the industry and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge’ was held to attract and retain high quality individuals who at No.4 Hamilton Place on 7 November 2019. The could contribute to the sustainability of the aviation conference was opened by Geoff Maynard, Chair of sector. Greener by Design, who welcomed all the delegates to discuss this challenging topic. WHERE ARE WE? The opening address was given by Sir Brian Burridge, Chief Executive Officer of the Royal The first session was opened by Professor Piers Aeronautical Society, who spoke on Creating Forster, member, UK Committee on Climate Change Sustainable Sectors. He identified three key (CCC) and Director, Priestley International Centre sectors: (1) the Future of Flight, including Urban Air for Climate, University of Leeds, who reviewed the Mobility, Defence, Space Capability and Aircraft climate science in the light of recent IPCC reports Design; (2) Climate Change & Sustainability, and the UK net zero target, aviation’s share of

including Environmental issues, Sustainable Aviation carbon dioxide emissions, non-CO2 climate effects Fuels, Carbon Offsetting and Regulation; and (3) of aviation and pathways compatible with net- Tomorrow’s Aerospace Professional, including zero. He noted that the world had significantly Diversity and Inclusion, Social mobility, and transformed over the past ten years and was Recruitment and Retention of personnel. now focused on meeting a target limiting global

6 Royal Aeronautical Society temperatures to no more than 1½°C, over pre- industrial levels.

As far as aviation was concerned, over this period there had been an increase in passenger kilometres, but the CO2 emissions had kept remarkably constant up to the present, however this trend was now starting to increase again. As a result, meeting the UK’s net-zero target requires new technologies to be developed and implemented, including carbon capture and storage (CCS).

The economic viability of future options required closer analysis ie at £200/tonne CO2 CCS, was it more sensible to focus on this rather than concentrating on sustainable aviation fuel Lord Adair Turner proposes the Mission Possible during (SAF)? SAF did, however, offer some potential for the conference. Ben Robins, FutureProofCreative. mitigation, but there was still a need to reduce ice formation from its use. He also noted that it wasn’t possible to offset everything. together to ensure its successful implementation, With respect to the IPCC, and aviation’s effect which would put $40bn into climate mitigation on the atmosphere including non-CO2 emissions, removing 2.5bn tonnes of CO2 over its lifetime. Piers noted that they were just about to submit an update to the Radiative Forcing values, but in The industry foresaw the future being driven by reality they don’t expect things to change much: CO2 SAF, and he noted that the first flight using this emissions were up by about 20%, while the effects was in 2005 – to date 200,000 commercial flights of both NOX and SOX were reduced. Soot impacts had been completed using SAF, with five airports were higher, and contrails and cirrus clouds were already supplying it from 11 production facilities expected to have a much larger effect. worldwide, currently representing 0.01% of total aviation fuel production. The industry target is for Radiative Forcing (RF) was still seen as a good 2% of all jet fuel being supplied as SAF by 2025, way of comparing the warming impacts from the but this needs further investment – he noted that different emission species, but more intensive the UK Government was leading in producing the analyses of climate simulations have led to the framework for SAF production. development of Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) which is seen as a much better measure. The industry ‘Waypoint 2050’ project for getting to

a target of 50% net CO2 on a 2005 baseline had

In conclusion, the view of aviation’s CO2 and non- been announced at the Paris air show, and it was

CO2 impacts on the global atmosphere, have not hoped that the ICAO Assembly would also mandate really changed that much at all. it. The question was is 50% enough when some States were targeting net zero by 2050? It was Michael Gill, Executive Director, Air Transport clear that some airlines and geographical areas can Action Group, gave an industry update noting that and should move quicker, but he didn’t believe it was currently, and in up to 30 years’ time (2050), the feasible everywhere. industry had a fuel efficiency target of increasing at 1.5% per year. To date, the performance currently The option of ‘Green taxes’ had been raised again stands at 2.3%, significantly higher (almost double) in the EU, which seemed an easy solution, but their than the rest of the economy. effectiveness was suspect and the solution explored in EU would not be acceptable in other parts of the The industry was also on-track to deliver the Carbon world, especially in the Southeast and Southern Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International countries. On balance, there is a need for vision to Aviation (CORSIA), for which the industry was overcome some of these huge challenges. supportive. While agreeing that it’s not perfect but, on balance, it is a good starting point with CORSIA Tim Johnson, Director, Aviation Environment being viewed as a gap-filler and not a be-all and end- Federation, was the last session speaker and all. He noted that all stakeholders needed to work started by noting that the CCC’s planning

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noting that some were already asking corporate buyers to pay extra to enable them to use SAF. Governments should mandate its use with a 20% uptake as a start.

ICSA also want to address the demand management challenge set by the IPCC for all greenhouse

gasses (not just CO2), and this needs to be reflected in policy. ICAO needs to supply the necessary leadership to ensure that this is managed properly, with discussions around net vs absolute emissions, and global vs regional, if states don’t act. CCS will be an essential part of the management of emissions as technology is not enough to meet the carbon neutral requirement. Currently the cost is around $140–$670 per tonne but will reduce with efficiencies of scale. Tim saw demand management not necessarily as an objective, but carbon pricing was – active demand management would be a A model of the Airbus Bird of Prey concept was on fallback option. prominent display during the conference. Ben Robins, FutureProofCreative. Finally, although public scrutiny of aviation was at an all-time high, the opposite is true of information assumption for aviation and shipping was that they to make informed choices – carbon labelling of should be net-zero, and their aviation strategy products may be a useful way of addressing this would be published in 2020. There is an obvious issue. discrepancy between the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) goal of carbon neutral growth Following the presentations, a question was asked from 2020, and the CCCs of reducing aviation’s about the impact of sustainable fuels on radiative emissions to 2005 levels. He thought that industry forcing from contrails. It was noted that the particles is unlikely to be able to achieve net-zero by 2050, that contrails coalesce on were formed by aromatics

which means thinking about all CO2 emissions now in the fuel, but although aromatic fuels were and how to reduce and mitigate them. currently going through certification, there was so much dirt already in the atmosphere, contrails would

For aviation, he believed that reducing CO2 beyond always be formed. current strategy by limiting passenger demand and looking at airport strategy was necessary. An In a response to a question of what the industry ICAO long-term goal, with associated pathway to be thought about Greta Thunberg’s recent suggestion agreed at the next ICAO Assembly was important to to stop flying, it was noted that IATA airlines had inform the discussion. been carrying out work on reducing emissions from 2009 and it was not in response to Greta. However, The International Coalition for Sustainable Aviation her position has helped the industry to push harder (ICSA) wants ICAO member states to try to come and make people stop and think about their share

together with a common vision. Absolute levels of of carbon emissions. It was suggested that CO2

CO2 from aviation must be no higher than those performance labelling of aircraft was not far away of 2020, rather than the net criterion of CORSIA. and that this would help people understand their In the future, ICSA want a 50% reduction from impacts better. aviation as an absolute target, as a minimum. They believe that there is plenty of scope to increase fuel Finally, the ability of ICAO standards to meet the net- efficiency even further – not just by incorporating zero target was questioned and would the industry new technology but also by retiring older aircraft be prepared to go further. Everyone noted some earlier. frustration with ICAO. However, they recognised that ICAO did have a difficult job to manage all 193 They feel that there is a future in SAF, but this needs member states and that they had a good track record to develop more rapidly – in 2018 6m tonnes of SAF of setting technical standards and do recognise the powered aviation for just 10min. There are many imperfections. Industry was already driving ahead ways that airlines could promote a greater uptake with their own strategy – it was noted that the recent

8 Royal Aeronautical Society Following the Covid-19 pandemic many airlines have brought forward the retirement of older aircraft such as the Boeing 747-400. Ken Fielding.

CCC letter to the Secretary of State for Transport Under these conditions the value of ETRW is about wanted the UK to map out a path to net-zero 0.6. Hence the conclusion by Professor Poll that, complementary to ICAO, and then use ICAO as a today, if all aircraft were able to operate at their vehicle to encourage other states to do the same. most efficient, and comparing this with how they actually operate, his analysis indicates only half of the fuel would be needed. The speaker described TECHNOLOGY AND OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY this as 100% wastage. In order of importance he listed the sources of wastage as due to: operating Professor Ian Poll, Cranfield University, commenced below maximum load factor, lack of matching of an the second session with a presentation entitled ‘What aircraft to routes with its design range, air traffic is the potential for improving operational efficiency?’ management en-route, departure routes and climb by showing a prediction that by 2050 aviation alone profile, descent profile and arrival routes and ground will increase the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by manoeuvring. His challenge to the industry is to between 1% and 2%. He went on to consider how remove all wastage. fuel usage could be reduced by aircraft operating at their maximum efficiency. He questioned whether The contribution from Oliver Family of Airbus, advances in aircraft technology could provide a Head of Overall Aircraft Design – E-Fan X, provided complete solution for the reduction required in the an interesting report on the progress to date on relatively short time span between now and 2050. the development of the electric-powered aircraft Also, taking into account an annual growth rate project E-Fan X being undertaken by Airbus and in aviation of 4.7%, he stated that large off-set Rolls-Royce. He began by setting out the case for programmes alone would not provide the solution and electrification and demonstrated that using coal to hence alternative approaches required consideration. generate electricity is in decline and that there is an The effect of various sources of inefficiency were exponential growth in renewables accompanied by assessed by presenting ‘energy to revenue work’ a reduction in cost per MW-hr. In the nine years up ratios (ETRW), defined as the ratio of energy released to 2018 in North America the cost per MW-hr from by the fuel to the product of weight payload and solar energy fell from $359 to $43 and in the seven distance flown. It was stated that a typical value for years up to 2017 the cost of storage per KW-hr ETRW, averaged across a carrier’s fleet, is currently using lithium-ion batteries fell from $1,000 to $209. about 1.2. Considering an individual aircraft, its value The motivation for the partnership between Airbus of ETRW is dependent on many factors including and Rolls-Royce is to develop the first low-emissions range and load factors. However, an aircraft achieves airliner with learning gained from building and flying its lowest values, meaning increased operational E-Fan X, a hybrid-electric demonstrator. The aircraft efficiency, when working close to the point where is based on a BAE 146 with engine number three the weight of the aircraft before any fuel is added replaced by an electric propulsion unit. A gas turbine (the zero fuel weight) and the take off weight are engine is located near the tail section and is coupled both at their certified maximum permitted values. to a generator linked to a battery storage system.

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In addition, there is important experience to be gained in high voltage power distribution, in hybrid- electric system control and thermal management. While individual components have high efficiencies the amount of heat generated is estimated to be about 140 kW, estimated by the speaker to be the equivalent of cooling 1,400 BAE 146 passengers. In addition to these challenges the speaker indicated that the greatest test was integrating all the new systems into the aircraft. The E-Fan X design phase is well underway including wind-tunnel testing, battery testing and 3kV power distribution testing. Detailed design is expected to be completed by mid- 2020 and the aircraft will be converted to its hybrid configuration in 2021 and flight testing will take place in 2022. The Rolls-Royce composite carbon/titanium (CTi) fan blade for the Advance and UltraFan engines was flown on Rols-Royce’s Boeing 747 flying testbed in 2014. Rolls-Royce. The next speaker, Adam Morton, Head of Environmental Technology at Rolls-Royce, explained that he joined the company about a year ago change are beginning to become apparent. However, from the energy sector where he was involved in he has the expectation that COP 26 will help to decarbonisation and observed that aviation still focus minds. Since aircraft being flown today and had a long way to go to achieve net zero emissions. aircraft at the design stage today are still expected In his presentation, Addressing Carbon – Breaking to be with us in 2050 the speaker sees sustainable Down the Silos, he first described the reduction aviation fuels (SAF) and offsetting as the ways out

in CO2 emissions that can be expected with new of an ‘existential’ crisis. Aircraft can fly now with a improved gas turbine engines such as the Ultrafan 50% blend and it is hoped this can be increased where, compared with present Trent engines, a further and that aviation will be a priority when it 25% improvement in efficiency can be expected by comes to allotting feedstock. In order to encourage 2025. However, in accord with other speakers, he the use of SAFs the speaker turned to Air Passenger agreed that to meet the 2050 net zero emissions Duty (APD) and landing charges. Since APD is target advances were needed on a number of fronts. highly unlikely to go away it could be increased One of Rolls-Royce’s aims is to encourage the for passengers on non-SAF flights and reduced development of sustainable aviation fuels that do for SAF flights. A similar thinking was applied to not have an adverse effect on engine maintenance landing charges. Returning to offsetting the speaker intervals. The presenter called for greater focus on briefly described contributing to nature-based and

this area by established and new fuels companies technology-based schemes for CO2 removal. When in order to maximise future availability while at the it comes to voluntary schemes they have not been same time removing unacceptable land-use impacts. successful as only 1% of passengers are willing Other important developments being carried out by to participate. To increase participation more trust Rolls-Royce are in electrification and hybridisation needs to be built up so people have a clearer view such as displayed in the collaboration they have of what happens to their money. The speaker was

with Airbus in the E-Fan X demonstrator project. confident that Heathrow will arrive at net zero CO2 Here there are opportunities for advances in power by 2050 with offsetting and given that there is system configuration and the development of low- greater emphasis placed on SAF production. emission gas turbine engines for electrical power generation. The final presentation in this session, ‘Improving Airspace Efficiency’ was given by Dr Jarlath Molloy, Matt Gorman, Director of Sustainability, Heathrow Environmental Affairs Manager, NATS. Air traffic Airport, explained that the title of his presentation, control is identified as one of a number of aspects An Update from Heathrow Airport, was devised to of aviation where there is scope for reducing allow him to have scope to talk more broadly about emissions and in his presentation, Dr Molloy set out the net zero emissions challenge from a Heathrow advances being made at NATS. In 2019 a survey perspective. The message was that presently not was undertaken by NATS of the UK public’s views on enough is being done to reach net zero emissions by air travel and it indicated that 60% think reducing

2050 and the problem needs to be addressed with CO2 emissions should be the industry priority. greater urgency as the adverse effects of climate Other interesting statistics include: 38% willing

10 Royal Aeronautical Society to pay an environmental charge, 31% consider the environmental impact when flying and only 22% think the public should be discouraged from flying. Ten years ago NATS set a target to reduce

CO2 emissions by 10% and since then they have achieved a 7% reduction in average emissions per flight. Since 2006 the number of flights, flight distances and CO2 emissions have increased but the average value of CO2 per km within UK regions has decreased. As a measure of airspace efficiency NATS uses 3Di, a metric devised in 2012. Each The French Government is investing in zero-carbon flight has a preferred profile but the actual radar aviation, including a potentially hydrogen-powered track shows flights deviate from their ideal profiles successor to the A320 for the mid-2030s. Enable H2. due to a number of reasons. This inefficiency is converted into a score between 0 and 100+ by an appropriate summing of the deviations. The present world total, are forecast to rise by 83% in the score is 29, to the outsider it has limited meaning same period. Some transfer to rail, higher prices but over time it provides NATS with a metric to to depress demand, and operational efficiencies assess how well they are doing. The speaker are needed. Electric aircraft for shorter routes pointed out that some reasons for deviations with biofuels or synfuels for longer routes are are beyond NATS’ control. In their estimates of also required. HGVs and shipping are likely to use airspace efficiency, it is shown that the most battery electric for shorter distances, and for longer important components are climb and descent which distances HGVs could use fuel cell electric vehicles together account for about 70% of the inefficiency and for shipping biofuels, synfuels, ammonia or embedded in their scoring system. Since 2015 the hydrogen. Aviation should have priority for biofuel 3Di score has improved by 3.7% and NATS has set use, but there is insufficient to meet all demand up a challenging target of 10% improvement by so other options must be explored. Significant 2024. improvements in battery technology – a six to eight times improvement in energy density – would allow commercial transatlantic flights. Although costs will KEYNOTE PRESENTATION BY LORD TURNER rise, in some cases significantly eg shipping, the effect on most consumer end prices will be small The afternoon session began with a keynote (around 1%), except for houses (3%) and air fares address from Lord Adair Turner, Chair of the Energy (c15%). The actual cost will depend on how much Transitions Committee, entitled ‘Achieving net zero improvement can be achieved in energy efficiency. emissions in aviation’. He started by reminding the audience that the International Air Transport Lord Turner concluded by pointing out the Association (IATA) has committed to only a 50% opportunities for aviation: the cost of biofuels/ reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 by a mixture synfuels will fall with scale and learning effects, but of efficiencies in technology, operations and the industry cannot piggyback on road transport infrastructure, together with growth in biofuels and biofuel developments and needs to overcome the economic measures. However, the commitment ‘chicken and egg’ issues surrounding supply and to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees demand. The industry needs to (1) commit to the Net requires Net Zero CO2 emissions by around 2050. Zero target; (2) introduce a seriously priced offset Globally this will be very difficult to achieve, but it system that becomes compulsory; and (3) introduce is technically and economically achievable from the fuel standards that by 2050 require 100% zero energy and industrial systems without relying on carbon fuel. offsets from land use. The good news is that costs are well down on original estimates: by 80% in the case of wind energy. LOW CARBON FUELS – NEW FUELS, NEW MARKETS There are three routes to net zero: reduced demand (eg recycling of plastics); greater efficiencies; An overview of the Low Carbon Fuel scene within or switching to electric, biomass or hydrogen, aviation was provided by Lizzie Gorman of E4Tech, and carbon capture. Aviation demand (pax/km) together with three presentations from different is forecast to rise by 240% between 2014 and stakeholder positions, namely the building of the UK

2050, while CO2 emissions, currently 2.9% of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply Chain, the role of

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the fuel supplier and the impact of sustainability on of production technologies which are not currently fuel development. commercialised together with the establishment of supply chains for large volumes of sustainable Lizzie Gorman presented the current status of feedstocks. In addition, a long-term and stable SAF production and then went on to review both policy will be required to bridge the price gap the future prospects of SAF production and between SAF and kerosene – and access to finance the challenges to scaling up that production. will be required to build large-scale plants. She listed the variety of technologies that had been certified over the past decade, with Hydro- Keith Bushell, UK Stakeholder Manager – processed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) currently Environmental Affairs, Airbus and Dr Michelle the most commercial. Today there is dedicated Carter, Head of Transport, Knowledge Transfer hydro-processing and co-processing capacity of Network outlined what was involved in helping 5Mtonnes/year globally, and further substantial develop the UK sustainable aviation fuel supply capacity is likely to be added in the next few years. chain. Keith explained that Sustainable Aviation’s However, most of this is used to produce renewable (SA) 2016 Carbon Roadmap forecast that by 2050

fuel for the road transport sector. Current and there would be a 24% reduction in aviation’s CO2 planned global SAF production capacity (excluding emissions as a result of using SAF. At that time, HEFA) is headed by Alcohol to Jet, Gasification SA asked the Government for a Public Private +FT, Pyrolysis + Upgrading and Direct Sugars to Partnership to help deliver this new fuel industry Hydrocarbons. But such (non HEFA) capacity totals in the UK, leading to the establishment of a SAF little over one Mtonnes/year, and contrasts with the Special Interest Group. This two-year project was 300 Mtonnes/year of global kerosene use. led by Michelle, who explained how the SIG was formed and operated. She explained how the project Currently there is a price gap between SAF and helped break down silos, bringing clarity to where kerosene and Lizzie considered that policy is the disparate research was being carried out, and by beginning to be implemented that will bridge that whom, and identifying the different implementation gap, citing CORSIA globally. Several regions allow teams. This led to introductions and a big step renewable fuel supplied to the aviation sector forward towards the creation of a Sustainable to contribute towards renewable fuel blending Aviation Fuels industry in the UK. mandates – and an obligation to supply renewable fuel into the aviation sector will be introduced by Keith explained that this work was feeding into Norway and is being considered by other European a new SA Carbon Roadmap due to be published Member States. shortly. This was expected to project a 30% carbon reduction from SAF use, involving 14 new plants. He In the short term most SAF will be supplied from also spelt out SA’s key ask, namely that the British HEFA. A relatively small modification is required Government should establish a dedicated Office for in order to increase the amount of jet fuel a hydro- Sustainable Aviation Fuels (OSAF) to complement the processing facility produces to supply the aviation successful Office for Low emissions Vehicles (OLEV) sector, but as this would be at the expense of road transport fuel production, price incentives will need to be in place for this to happen. In addition, some On 23 June 2020 ZeroAvia conducted the first test flight dedicated (aviation targeted) HEFA production of a Piper M-class six-seater converted to electric power facilities are now operating/under construction. from Cranfield Airport. ZeroAvia. Bottom up modelling of biofuel plant build rates suggests that SAF production could reach between 15 and 31 Mtonnes/year by 2035. Longer term, E4Tech sees HEFA production capacity as likely to be limited by the availability of feedstock and that therefore other routes from different forms of biomass or renewable electricity will be required. Projections indicate global SAF production capacity could get to between 63 and 131 Mtonnes/year in 2050 – between 22% and 45% of global kerosene use in 2050 according to the IEA 2DS scenario.

She concluded that to achieve SAF production at this scale will require a scale-up and development

12 Royal Aeronautical Society Team Scramasaxe – a participant in Air Race E, which will become the world’s first all-electric aircraft race when it launches an inaugural series of international races. Airbus/Hervé de Brus.

Bryan Stonehouse MRAeS, Global Aviation Biofuels The RSB is also active beyond certification, helping & Carbon Manager, Shell Aviation described the to set up supply chains, develop regional indicators, role of the fuel supplier in helping the industry to fly providing technical advice to policy makers and more but emit less. He agreed that SAF has a major developing new tools. The RSB is also engaged in role to play in enabling aviation to meet the net zero work to assess the biomass potential of different carbon challenge. He sees fuel suppliers having a regions of the world, a key issue given the fact that key role in this, and saw Shell as having a role to play the availability of sustainable feedstock is likely to in all seven elements of the value chain, namely in be a key limiting factor for decades to come. The the Supply Chain and Logistics, and Product Quality RSB is also closely involved with CORSIA and Elena and Assurance and as a Technology Developer, Fuel showed how RSB Certification and CORSIA Criteria Producer, Investor, Off-taker and Fuel user. interrelate.

He considered that industry must look at options A wide range of questions started with “what’s in it to go faster and stressed that a net zero scenario for Airbus”: ensuring safety was the reply, together is quite different from simply curtailing emissions with helping to address climate change. An enquiry from growth. Co-ordinated industry action and as to whether the CO2 emissions to fuel ratio could partnership is needed for success – and greater be reduced was rejected: a higher proportion of efforts will be needed in the policy space and with hydrogen in the fuel can appear to help, but that consumers to help drive sectoral change. hydrogen has to be made from something, resulting

in further CO2 emissions. Finally, Elena Schmidt, Standards Director, Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB) There was considered to be significant potential for presented the opportunities and constraints for using pipeline infrastructure to move SAF around alternative aviation fuels from a sustainability the country, potentially suggesting SAF plants being perspective – putting the Sustainable in SAF. While collocated with existing refineries. the Greenhouse Gas Emissions associated with a fuel are of paramount importance, key also are On the subject of what needs to be done in the Water Use, Labour Rights, Food Security, Rural policy space, Bryan spoke of the variety and scale Development, Waste and Traceability – and Indirect of measures being introduced around the world. For Impacts. The RSB has developed 12 principles that instance, Norway is bringing in a mandate this year set out the standard and is closely involved with the and Sweden next year (rising to 20% by 2030) and certification process for new fuels. the Netherlands are looking at a mandate rising to

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14% by 2030. Some regions are setting their own low carbon fuel standards and the different views of competing users has led to a lively dialogue this year which is impacting policy decisions. He identified the UK, California and Canada as Governments which have been considering interesting policy ideas but expressed concern about some of the policies emerging which could lead to thoroughly sub- optimal solutions such as tankering.

Elena confirmed that food production is a key issue and that the RSB criteria require that feedstock production does not have a harmful impact on food production and markets locally. She also confirmed that the project run by Masdar to develop SAF from halophytes, a pathway some see to have great potential, is on-going. Direct Air Capture (DAC) is Single-aisle Turboelectric Aircraft with Aft Boundary-Layer another potential source but is currently a long way Propulsion concept. NASA. off being competitive.

THE ROAD TO 2050 – WHICH ROUTE TO TAKE? national action. The CCC had recommended this for the UK and the new Government’s response is The final session opened with a presentation awaited. from Chris Lyle, Chief Executive of Air Transport Economics. His career has included a long period at The sector is facing a difficult task with a number ICAO and he was able to give an independent but of areas to be prioritised including synthetic fuels. highly informed view of the progress of ICAO’s global However, further, much sharper, market-based approach to aviation and climate change. measures should be expected including taxation and demand management. In summary, he believed ICAO responded to the Kyoto Protocol by developing that the industry’s position would have to move from a basket of measures aimed at achieving carbon- seeking a licence to grow to justifying sustainability. neutral growth (CNG) of international aviation from 2020 including the landmark market-based The next speaker was Eva Weightman, Director measure CORSIA. Although progress has been Aviation at the International Emissions Trading made, the pace is slow and the existing basket of Association (IETA). IETA is a non-profit group with a measures will not achieve CNG from 2020. ICAO’s vision of a fair and international global carbon price lack of legal authority was an inherent weakness and produced by markets of high environmental integrity. CORSIA is both fragile and vulnerable. Three major Her presentation focused on the role of carbon countries (China, India and the Russian Federation) markets in the context of the Paris agreement of opposed the latest proposals on the last day of the 2015 and the developing contribution of CORSIA. recent ICAO Assembly. Although many lessons had been learnt in recent The good news, however, is that the private sector years about the creation and use of carbon markets, industry is very frustrated with many airlines and they do work. Article 6 of the Paris agreement had industry bodies pushing for much greater ambition. stressed the need for international co-operation Chris believes that Governments (individually or and many countries would be working collectively collectively) should now develop more climatically to achieve their NDCs. But NDCs varied from effective strategies, balancing the three pillars of country to country and different countries had very sustainability and building on the experience of different carbon abatement costs. International CORSIA. Work should start now and be implemented co-operation through, for example, carbon markets in parallel with CORSIA. helps countries find the most cost-efficient way to meet their targets. Opportunities for carbon removal International aviation emissions should be brought are also not equal across the world and international into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) collaboration provides the opportunity for large- under the Paris Agreement umbrella, annulling scale projects with their resultant economies of the CORSIA exclusivity and encouraging stronger scale.

14 Royal Aeronautical Society Eva presented the results of work completed British Airways with the University of Maryland using the same integrated model used by the IPCC. It demonstrated that collaboration would cut the cost of implementation by half, saving some $250bn by 2030, and further significant benefits would result if the approach is extended to changes in land use. Aviation, through CORSIA, will be part of the international carbon markets. As buyers they will be competing with other sectors and governments and the use of these markets will help all sectors achieve their targets most efficiently.

The final speaker in the session was Jonathon Counsell, Group Head of Sustainability at International Airlines Group (IAG). He gave an industry perspective and explained how IAG had decided to set a target of Net Zero CO2 emissions by 2050. He explained how the IPCC’s special report had demonstrated the importance of avoiding another half a degree of warming. Without stronger action aviation emissions could become a quarter of all emissions by 2050. Over the past 12 months sustainability had moved to the top of the industry’s agenda.

The new IAG targets were to achieve a 10% CLOSING REMARKS reduction in CO2 per passenger kilometre by 2025, a 20% reduction by 2030 and net zero CO2 by In his closing remarks, Geoff Maynard, Chair 2050. Jonathon hoped others in the industry would GbD, pointed out that conference has identified follow the IAG lead. IAG believe the net zero target a clear route forward for the industry to meet the is achievable through progress in a number of areas Net Zero Emissions Challenge by 2050. There and the use of a global market-based measure. are still opportunities for further operational and CORSIA is a compromise needed to get agreement technology improvements to reduce fuel burn. There from 193 ICAO states but a more ambitious scheme are also very promising prospects for developing was needed. small- and medium-sized electric aircraft within the next ten years. For longer routes, there are IAG is investing $400m in the development of good opportunities to develop sustainable aviation sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and, in partnership fuels. The CORSIA scheme will ensure that most with Velocys and Shell, is developing a UK waste- aviation growth from 2020 will be offset (and all to-fuel plant due to open in 2024. SAF plants could from 2027, including that from the expansion of produce 8% of UK aviation fuel needs by 2035 Heathrow). Offsetting is now readily available, and and 30% by 2050. IAG is also incentivising its the estimated carbon footprint from this conference, managers to reduce carbon emissions. including delegates travel has been offset through The nature of the carbon offset market would be Ecosphere. very different as we approach 2050 and IAG is also exploring the technology of atmospheric carbon In the longer-term carbon capture and storage capture. provides an opportunity to offset remaining aviation emissions, and using the CCC estimates, removing

Tim Johnson joined the three speakers in a final and storing a tonne of CO2 from the atmosphere panel session. Questions covered obstacles to will cost around £200 per tonne of CO2 equivalent. taxation of aviation fuel, the future of UK domestic Passing this cost on to the customer, and assuming aviation and there was also a plea not to ignore some improvement in efficiency, would result in aircraft noise when addressing climate change. costs rising by £1 for every 42 miles travelled per Finally Piers Forster encouraged the industry to passenger. While not cheap, it is not prohibitively think internationally and help push other countries expensive either and provides a route to aviation to greater ambition on emissions reduction. meeting the Net Zero Challenge by 2050.

Greener by Design Annual Report 2019-2020 15 Carbon Pricing through effective Market-Based Measures NASA/SSAIEdward Winstead

Carbon Pricing through effective Market-Based Measures

INTRODUCTION as well as moderating aviation demand because it increases airline costs. Carbon pricing is generally accepted as the most effective instrument for addressing climate change, International aviation, where airlines from different by giving organisations the economic incentive to countries fly and compete on the same routes,

reduce their CO2 emissions. The key mechanisms require measures that treat airlines equally and for delivering carbon pricing are known as Market- prevent carbon emissions simply moving between Based Measures (MBMs), as opposed to say taxes. airlines flying the same routes. Policy measures like MBMs are primarily focused on an environmental unilateral taxes simply heightens the risk of carbon outcome rather than a fiscal outcome produced from leakage and potential net increases in carbon a tax. emissions, with funds tending to go into national government accounts, rather than directly into The principle of carbon pricing is that carbon is given carbon reduction projects. a value, and airlines pay for emissions via carbon savings from projects on the ground such as efficiency The MBM known as CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting improvements, renewable and nature-based solutions and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation), including reforestation and avoided deforestation. agreed globally in 2016, is a mechanism designed to reduce emissions across international aviation Using MBMs, carbon reductions are made in other without introducing any competitive distortion sectors when they cannot be made within aviation. or carbon leakage. At the same time, there is a However, carbon pricing also provides an incentive recognition of the European political desire to to accelerate in-sector carbon saving measures continue with a more stringent policy for intra-

16 Royal Aeronautical Society European flights, and a strong belief that the current will need carbon pricing across all sectors, with European Emissions Trading Scheme model should appropriate policy frameworks. This will require transition into a policy that is aligned with the governments to continue developing the structures CORSIA framework. and policies for effective carbon markets worldwide. A key area for governments to address in the near term is conclusion of the Article 6 element of the CONTEXT FOR EFFECTIVE MBMs UNFCCC Paris Agreement which sets the important rules for the international carbon market. In this The aviation industry is investing in ever more context, the approach to aviation emissions will fuel-efficient aircraft, fuel saving operational need to evolve, strengthen and support global measures and sustainable aviation fuels as well carbon market developments. as breakthrough technologies for the future such as hybrid electric aircraft. The evidence to deliver continued improvements from these ‘in-sector’ DETERMINING THE UK NET ZERO EMISSIONS TO areas is demonstrated in the 2020 Sustainable 2050 Aviation Carbon Road-Map. However, to achieve ambitious carbon targets effective market-based The UK aviation industry is prioritising the removal policy measures and associated carbon pricing are of carbon emission through ‘in sector’ actions, essential. When designed appropriately these policy and forecast maintaining a decoupling in growth measures not only achieve carbon targets, but they in aviation activity from emissions growth, but also strengthen the incentive to deliver in-sector by 2050 the industry is still forecast to generate

improvements as well. around 25 million tonnes of CO2. Given the need to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, market- Effective market-based policy measures are based policy measures agreed internationally will be fundamental to government, business and society to necessary to define the trajectory of net emissions enable cost and environmentally effective emission reductions, strengthen carbon pricing and provide reductions across the global economy. These policy the framework to obligate the aviation industry to measures are especially important to aviation invest in carbon offset and removal solutions for because additional in-sector reductions at the margin these residual emissions. are more costly than in many other sectors. To the extent in-sector aviation savings are insufficient to The assumed trajectory to achieve net zero by 2050 meet carbon targets, such measures require airlines is shown in graph 1. The period to 2035 is based to pay for emissions reductions in other parts of the on how the EU ETS and CORSIA will apply to UK economy to make up the difference. aviation. The reason for the slight drop in the offset CARBON PRICING THROUGHemissions from 2033 is due to the slight change With the start of the global CORSIA agreement in in the basis for the calculation of offsets within the 2021, the aviation sector is taking significant steps CORSIA mechanism. Beyond 2035 it is assumed toEFFECTIVE harness the power of market MARKET forces to tackle ‐BASEDthere is a gradual MEASURES transition to achieve net zero climate change. A low or zero carbon economy emissions by 2050.

UK aviation forecast requirement for carbon offset and removal Graph(including 1. UK aviation effect forecast on demand requirement of for MBM carbon costs) offset and removal (including effect on demand of MBM costs).

45 CO emissions after 2 ‘in sector’ mitigation 40 CO emissions after carbon 2 35 ) offset and removal investment 2

30

(MtCO

25

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By investing in out of sector carbon reductions 15 Emissions net UK aviation emissions can be reduced to 2 10 zero by 2050

CO

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0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Greener by Design Annual Report 2019-2020 17

Number of tonnes of carbon assumed to be purchased by UK aviation to Carbon Pricing through effectiveachieve Market-Based net zero emissions Measures by 2050

30

25

20

15

10 Carbon emissions Carbon (MtCO2)

5

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2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Graph 2. Number of tonnes of carbon assumed to be purchased by UK aviation to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

Based on these assumptions the quantity of carbon face equal treatment. Market distortion will occur

emissions the UK aviation industry requires to where the cost per tonne of CO2 of a policy measure address will change from year to year as shown in is different between different airlines, leading graph 2. to carbon leakage and potential increase in net emissions. In air transport markets this can affect simple point-to-point markets as well as indirect REQUIREMENTS FOR EFFECTIVE MBMs transfer markets.

The aviation industry, Sustainable Aviation, The global CORSIA and EU Emissions Trading governments and climate science have all System (ETS) policy measures both achieve these consistently advocated that carbon pricing and requirements to a large degree. On the other hand, effective carbon MBMs are an essential element unilateral ‘eco’ taxes targeted only at air transport in reducing emissions in the aviation sector. This and introduced in individual countries don’t achieve means mandatory regulation that harnesses the either requirement and are therefore a failure power of markets to seek emission reductions environmentally, economically and competitively. where they can be made most cost-effectively and applied equitably in air transport markets to avoid CORSIA is a breakthrough global climate agreement competitive distortion and carbon leakage. to accelerate carbon reductions from aviation and achieve the goal of carbon neutral growth from To achieve the first requirement – environmentally- 2020. From 2021, airlines will be required to pay to

and cost-effective emissions reduction – the policy reduce CO2 emissions through qualifying emission measure must allow access to a range of abatement reduction projects around the world to meet the options in multiple sectors and countries. This requirements of CORSIA. By introducing carbon market-based approach means that the cost of pricing at a global level, CORSIA achieves the first emissions reductions is established by projects aviation industry target of carbon neutral growth that are most able to generate them. It also means from 2020 and provides a strong foundation to that airlines and their customers pay no more move towards subsequent targets and measures out than necessary for meaningfully achieving carbon to 2050. targets. However, over time, as global structures to support carbon pricing mature, the cost of carbon To achieve capped growth in emissions at the global can be expected to increase. level and maintain equity, operators and countries with mature markets will achieve declining net The second requirement – equity – is achieved emissions through CORSIA. This is true for the UK by carefully designing the scope and rules of the and can be seen in graph 1 by a declining trajectory policy measure with the objective that all airlines in net emissions over time as a result of CORSIA.

18 Royal Aeronautical Society Boeing

CORSIA EMISSION REDUCTION UNITS The criteria are based on principles commonly applied under existing carbon trading mechanisms Under CORSIA, international aircraft operators will and well-accepted carbon offset certification collectively be required to purchase independently standards, for example: verified emission units for over 2.5bn tonnes of n A key requirement is that the greenhouse gas

CO2 between 2021 and 2035 representing global reduction or removal projects must be ‘additional’ funding of over £25bn in low carbon projects (at to business-as-usual activity. The units must also an indicative price of £10 per tonne). This means represent a permanent reduction of emissions airlines will fund thousands of new carbon reduction that cannot be reversed. Similarly, the activity projects and programmes worldwide that deliver should not result in unintended increases in lower carbon emissions. emissions elsewhere n To quantify the greenhouse gas reduction

There are many ways to achieve CO2 reductions benefits from a project, a baseline is determined that produce emission reduction units, many of to represent what would have happened if the which bring other social, environmental or economic project had not been implemented. Emissions benefits relevant to sustainable development. reductions are quantified using accurate Such offsets can be sourced from various types of measurements, valid protocols, and are audited project activities, including, for example, wind and n Emissions Units Programs must demonstrate solar energy, clean cook stoves, methane capture, that they have procedures in place to track units forestry and other emissions-reducing projects. and prevent avoidance of ‘double counting’, ie ensuring that emissions reductions are only Particularly exciting is the potential for airlines counted once, across different climate policies to help move ground energy supplies to better and carbon mitigation schemes carbon free renewable sources such as wind and n Emissions units programs also need to solar power as well as protecting valuable eco- have safeguards in place to address wider systems by purchasing high quality nature-based environmental and social risks offsets generated by deforestation prevention or n Strict accounting ensures the carbon reduction reforestation. is achieved, purchased by one airline and ‘cancelled’ meaning that those reductions are not To ensure the environmental integrity of CORSIA, claimed anywhere else under any other carbon the ICAO Council will adopt a list of emissions units MBM that can be used for compliance. The Council’s n UK airlines are clear of the need for high decision will be informed by a recommendation quality carbon offsets to ensure every tonne from a Technical Advisory Body and guided by of emissions reduction paid for genuinely environmental criteria to guarantee that emissions delivers meaningful carbon reductions without units deliver real and meaningful CO2 reductions. unintended consequences or adverse effects.

Greener by Design Annual Report 2019-2020 19 Carbon Pricing through effective Market-Based Measures

It is recognised that the design of CORSIA was a During 2020, UK and EU policymakers will consider compromise to gain agreement of all the UN member the next steps for European policy, taking account states, the main elements of compromise being: of the latest developments with CORSIA. The 1. It covers only the growth in emissions as opposed aviation industry recognises the European political to all emissions desire to continue with more stringent policy for 2. It applies from 2021 to 2035, and a revised intra-European flights and believe the classical scheme will be needed post 2035 ETS model should transition into a policy that is 3. It is a carbon offset scheme aligned with the CORSIA framework. It is possible to 4. It begins with a voluntary phase from 2021 to simultaneously align intra-European climate policy 2026 prior to the mandatory phase in 2027 with the CORSIA framework while ensuring that intra-European aviation contributes to European However, it is a significant achievement that a global climate targets.

agreement to address CO2 emissions has been implemented and there is additionally a three yearly in-built mechanism to review the effectiveness of ADDITIONAL POSITIVE IMPACTS OF MBMs the scheme, with the first review taking place in 2024. Critical to the effectiveness of CORSIA will The benefit of good MBMs goes beyond the cost- be the quality and integrity of the carbon offsets. effective emissions reductions that are achieved. Post 2035, availability of offsets will reduce as more By putting a price on carbon emissions, airlines are

countries move towards net zero, and alternative CO2 likely to reflect these costs in air fares, and there is removal solutions such as Direct Air Carbon Capture an associated moderation in demand for air travel. and Storage (DACCS) powered by green electricity will be needed to offset aviation emissions. Carbon pricing also provides increased incentive in all other emissions mitigation areas. It increases the focus of airlines on fuel optimising fleet and INTRA-EUROPEAN POLICY FOR AVIATION operations, it enhances the financial case for deployment of sustainable fuels and it positively On average since 2012 when aviation was included influences manufacturers to innovate to improve fuel in the EU ETS, net emissions on intra-European efficiency in future generations of aircraft. flights have been reduced by 40%. This is because a finite amount of emissions are allowed for different emitting sectors in the EU ETS and operators ASSUMPTIONS FOR EFFECTIVE MBMs must either reduce their emissions or pay to have emissions reduced elsewhere in the system. The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) is assumed Since 2012 airlines have funded over 130 million to apply until 2020. From 2021 CORSIA takes

tonnes of CO2 reduction through the EU Emissions effect. From 2021 there is assumed to be UK Trading System at a cost of over 1.3bn Euros. By and EU climate policy for intra-European flights comparison, it is estimated CORSIA will mitigate that complements and aligns with the global

2.5bn tonnes of CO2, through ~$25bn (@ $10/tonne) CORSIA instrument but reflects the need for higher of new funds contributed by airlines during the emissions reduction stringency in that region. The 2021-35 CORSIA period. European policy is assumed to have a declining cap of 2.2% per annum and be in place until 2035. It

United Airlines is assumed that there is no double regulation of emissions, and therefore that emissions reduced through CORSIA are not addressed by the complementary European policy that would apply to intra-European flights.

CORSIA is modelled using best available data and assumptions until 2035 to reflect the design as defined in the ICAO Assembly Resolution of 2016, including a shift from the sector growth method of determining operator obligations to the own-growth method. This causes the net emissions reduction associated with CORSIA to be non-linear up to 2035.

20 Royal Aeronautical Society At present the priority is to ensure the successful implementation of CORSIA, but it is expected that global climate policy will evolve for the period after 2035 (when CORSIA ends) to 2050 to ensure

carbon reduction targets are achieved, incorporating Pingstone Adrian scientific guidance and political considerations of the time. Acceleration of work on long-term targets was agreed at the 2019 ICAO Assembly with the potential for adoption of updated goals as early as 2022. The industry and the UK government fully support this approach.

DEVELOPMENT OF EMISSION REDUCTION OPTIONS

As carbon markets and government policy measures mature, the nature of carbon reduction initiatives is also likely to evolve. Lessons from previous frameworks where some types of emissions reduction units were found to be inappropriate must be learnt. Market forces and policy direction will influence the type and range of options that will become available in the future for generating through ICAO on setting a clear, long term CO2 emission reduction units. Options that could develop target for aviation compatible with the IPCC 1.5 as significant areas in future include: degree report and 2015 Paris Climate Summit n Natural carbon sinks such as improving soil and ambition, by no later than 2022. COP26, now

peatland CO2 absorption and reforestation delayed until 2021 in Glasgow, presents an ideal n Carbon removal technologies such as direct opportunity for the UK to show climate change removal of carbon from air and sequestration leadership on the global stage by progressing the international framework for aviation emissions There is a lot of potential for negative emissions or to support delivery of the 2050 long-term

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies, CO2 target of Net Zero Emissions. To support but the required investment will be significant, and development of the wider carbon markets, the potential to accelerate current technologies UK government should continue to focus on a to meet commercial market demand has yet to be successful outcome of UNFCCC negotiations fully assessed. If they are successfully developed, on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement (ie setting some as yet unproven Greenhouse Gas Removal the international rules for an effective carbon techniques, such as Bioenergy with Carbon Capture market). and Storage (BECCS) and direct air capture and 2. The UK government should support a transition carbon storage (DACCS), could be introduced earlier from the current ETS model into a policy that is to help meet carbon targets cost-effectively. While aligned with the CORSIA framework. these concepts develop, there has been a focus 3. The UK government should explore the upon Natural Climate Solutions including forestry, opportunity for UK and other airlines to be allowed peat land, wetland restoration as well as agricultural to spend some of their CORSIA funds on UK solutions. This is based on their readiness for projects as a matter of priority. This will allow implementation and scalability, and the overriding UK businesses to support new carbon reduction fact that protection and regeneration of the world’s projects and technologies across the UK, bringing nature-based assets is key to addressing the climate benefits to communities and the economy and emergency. ensuring local governance and quality standards are maintained. This should include both nature and There are three key areas in which the Government technology-based carbon reduction and removal should work with industry to progress the following solutions. issues: 1. The UK Government should support concerted, This is partly based on an extract taken from global action to reduce aviation emissions. The Sustainable Aviation’s Roadmap published in Government should do all it can to drive work February 2020.

Greener by Design Annual Report 2019-2020 21 Atmospheric Science Simon Eugster

Atmospheric Science

NON-CO2 EFFECTS In contrast, the non-CO2 impacts of aviation are substantial and are peculiar to aviation. Because We begin, as in last year’s report, with the they are believed currently to account for more observation that, of the main contributors to than half of the radiative forcing from aviation, climate change from aviation, it is the non- they deserve our serious attention. The European

CO2 effects that we believe should now be the Commission has been required by the European primary target for research. It remains the case Parliament to report to it on the impact of aviation

that, because of its long lifetime, CO2 is the non-CO2 effects on climate change and to report main long-term threat to the Earth’s climate on possible measures to address the issue.

and, for aviation, reducing CO2 emissions must Consequently, the Commission has mandated the be the most important long-term objective. This European Safety Agency (EASA) to conduct a study, requires advances in aircraft and engine design, in which we understand is led by Lee of Manchester operations, in sustainable alternative fuels but not Metropolitan University and was due to report to the

in understanding the role of CO2 in climate change. Commission by 1 January 2020. The Commission The scientific understanding of the latter is high expects to present the analysis in the second and the rate at which aviation contributes to the quarter of 2020.

increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is accurately known, at least for civil aviation which As regards recommendations for mitigation, we is the predominant contributor. True, there may must await the report of the Commission and any be some uncertainty in accurately quantifying subsequent decision by the European Parliament in

the processes by which CO2 is removed from the the autumn. In last year’s Annual Report we quoted

atmosphere, and hence in projecting future CO2 from Lee, who observed in his 2018 report to DfT

concentrations. That is not a question specific to on the non-CO2 effects of aviation: “However, the

aviation, however. It is relevant to future policy to clear message is that mitigation of non-CO2 impacts

reduce the net emission of CO2 by aviation but it is tends to raise complex questions regarding both

not currently a significant question for aviation. scientific uncertainty and trade-off (with CO2)

22 Royal Aeronautical Society consequences, whereas reducing CO2 emissions Radiative Lee (i) Add- (ii) Rev- (iii) #1 (iv) #2 has clear and long-term benefits and does not suffer forcing of et al itional ised Meth- Ozone from the same levels of scientific uncertainty.” On aviation NOX 2009 Proc- meth- ane contri- the other hand, the most recent publication on the emissions in esses ane life- bution issue by the Commission states “Going forward, the 2005 (PMO, RF time Commission has identified the reduction of non- method SWV) formula 2 CO2 aviation emissions and their interdependencies in mW/m with CO (and noise) as one of the priority areas 2 Ozone 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 41.2 in the next EU Research & Innovation framework Methane –12.5 –12.5 –15.4 –10.0 –10.0 programme (Horizon Europe). PMO –5.0 –5.0 –3.3 –3.3 SWV –1.9 –1.9 –1.2 –1.2 While the complex questions regarding scientific Total NO RF 13.8 6.9 4.0 11.8 26.7 uncertainty cited by Lee remain only slightly X reduced, we believe recent work discussed below Table 1. Evolution of estimated contribution of NOX has shown that some substantial measures to emission to aviation radiative forcing. reduce climate impacts can be adopted without any significant increase in CO2 emissions. assumption in methane response calculations of steady state rather than transient development, which leads to the negative effect of methane on

REVISED VIEW OF NOX CONTRIBUTION RF being overestimated. The second is that most studies determine ozone changes by switching

While nitrous oxide (N2O) is one of the five main off or reducing aviation NOX emissions, instead greenhouse gases, it is not produced by aircraft. of calculating aviation contributions to the ozone.

The other two oxides of nitrogen, NO and NO2, Table 1, taken from Grewe et al, shows the evolution collectively termed NOX, which are produced by the with time of the estimated climate impact of NOX as combination of atmosphere oxygen and nitrogen in studies have progressed. the high temperatures in a gas turbine combustor, are not greenhouse gases but in the upper Relative to the original estimate of Lee et al in 2009, atmosphere their emission leads to an increase in the changes in successive columns reflect: the concentration of ozone and a reduction in the (ia) recognition that a reduction in background concentration of methane, both greenhouse gases. methane reduces the ozone formed from methane as a precursor to ozone, termed ‘primary mode ozone’ In a classic 2009 review by Lee et al of Radiative (PMO) and also (ib) that a reduction of methane 2 Forcing in 2005, RF by CO2 was put at 28.0mW/m entering the stratosphere, where it decomposes 2 and that by NOX at 13.8mW/m , which was the net into carbon dioxide and water vapour, reduces the of 26.3 positive from ozone formation and –12.5 stratospheric water vapour (SWV) concentration from methane removal. Over the following decade and, since water vapour is a greenhouse gas, the estimate of the negative contribution of methane reduces radiative forcing; (ii) an updating of removal increased in magnitude, having the effect the formula for calculating RF for methane of reducing the estimated net RF from aviation NOX concentration changes to include short-wave emissions in 2005 to 4.0mW/m2. Consequently, radiation effects, which increases the negative RF last year’s Annual Report included a chart by for methane; (iii) correction for the methodological

Kärcher of DLR showing net RF in 2011 from NOX error in calculating methane lifetimes and (iv) 2 at 5mW/m , leaving CO2 and contrail-cirrus clearly correcting the error in calculating the contribution of as the two dominant contributors from aviation to NOX emissions to the ozone concentration. climate change. Thus, compared with an estimated contribution 2 In December 2019, however, Grewe et al of to RF of 28.0mW/m from CO2 in 2005, the (1) DLR published a paper which challenged this contribution from NOX in that year fell from 13.8mW/ assessment. The authors argued that, along with m2 estimated in 2009 to a low of 4.0mW/m2 by the recent studies which had led to the progressive 2018 but is now put by Grewe et al at 26.7mW/m2, reduction in the estimated impact of NOX, there almost equal to the contribution of CO2. are two methodological flaws underlying the current analyses. These are simplifications which This paper, if its conclusions are accepted, is of have resulted in the contribution of aviation NOX major importance to the assessment of the non-CO2 emissions to climate change being underestimated effects of aviation and of measures to mitigate the by a factor of six to seven. The first is the effects. It might be considered a ‘game changer’.

Greener by Design Annual Report 2019-2020 23 sustained, could be introduced relatively quickly, and affect the entire world fleet, in a way that new technology to reduce fuel burn could not. In February 2019 the US Company Aireon launched its satcom datalink relay network to the Iridium 66-satellite constellation, to enable ATM surveillance of ADS-B equipped aircraft ‘anywhere on earth’. This has increased the incentive to take this project forward as quickly as practicable.

Last year’s Annual Report presented results of studies of contrail statistics by Gierens of DLR, stimulated by the Group’s activity. These added weight to his earlier assertion that most of the contrail RF came from a very small percentage of flights. In his work he developed the concept of ‘Big Hits’, which occur on the infrequent days when meteorological conditions at cruise altitudes are particularly propitious for persistent contrail formation. This work was complemented by a new analysis by Poll of the effect on fuel burn of flight diversions to avoid forming contrails. From these two studies it was argued in last year’s report that taking ATM action to make a small change in the cruise altitude of a minority of flights on Big Hit days could substantially reduce RF from persistent contrails with a very small increase in fuel burn. An increase of 0.025% was suggested for the airlines’ annual fuel burn.

These broad conclusions have been reinforced by a study by Teoh and Stettler at Imperial College, London, in collaboration with Schumann of DLR, the results of which were published(2) in February 2020. The paper estimates the impact of aviation contrails on climate forcing for flight track data in Japanese airspace, using the DLR CoCiP (Contrail-Cirrus Prediction) code. The paper marks a step beyond earlier studies using CoCiP by using a fractal aggregates (FA) model developed by the authors to predict the black carbon particle number emission index as a function of engine setting. In previous CoCiP calculations the index had been taken as constant at 1015 particles per kg of fuel burned.

The study uses the CARATS high resolution aircraft activity data set for Japanese airspace for six one-week periods of activity recorded bi-monthly between May 2012 and March 2013, a total of 61 million waypoints. For each flight CoCiP was used to predict the total energy forcing (EF) of the contrail/contrail-cirrus it generated – that is the integration over the life of the contrail, over its length and its evolving width, of its radiative forcing. The units of RF are W/m2, the units of EF are Joules. It is important to note that energy forcing of contrails/contrail-cirrus can be both positive (warming) and negative (cooling). The overall warming from contrail-cirrus is the difference between the warming from trapping outgoing longwave radiation from the Earth and the cooling from reflecting incoming short-wave radiation from the Sun – both large quantities. The substantial reductions reported by Teoh et al are the result of deflecting traffic only after the late afternoon, so that the major effect is to eliminate the contrail-cirrus that during the night would have trapped the outgoing infra-red radiation. Atmospheric Science

Figure 1 shows the aggregated results, plotting the cumulative energy forcing of all the flights in the study as a percentage of the total forcing against the number of flights as a percentage of the total.

REDUCING THE CLIMATE IMPACT OF CONTRAILS AND CONTRAIL-CIRRUS (AIC)

It is the contribution to climate change of contrails and contrail-cirrus, collectively termed aircraft- induced cloudiness (AIC), that in 2016 the ad hoc Contrail Avoidance Group was convened by Greener by Design to address. The aim of the Group is to achieve a convincing demonstration of the potential for reducing AIC by ‘smart flying’ under ATM control.

The two main drivers for this effort are, first, the fact

that, even with an increased contribution from NOX, Figure 1. Cumulative energy forcing as a proportion of AIC is believed to account for approximately half Figureflights (5)1. Cumulative energy forcing as a proportion of flights the Radiative Forcing from aviation. Secondly, that using air traffic management (ATM) to avoid the ice supersaturated regions (ISSRs) in which persistent aggregates (FA) model developed by the authors to contrails form, and in which the cirrus cloud into predict the black carbon particle number emission which they develop is sustained, could be introduced index as a function of engine setting. In previous relatively quickly, and affect the entire world fleet, in CoCiP calculations the index had been taken as a way that new technology to reduce fuel burn could constant at 1015 particles per kg of fuel burned. not. In February 2019 the US Company Aireon launched its satcom datalink relay network to the The study uses the CARATS high resolution aircraft Iridium 66-satellite constellation, to enable ATM activity data set for Japanese airspace for six surveillance of ADS-B equipped aircraft ‘anywhere one-week periods of activity recorded bi-monthly on Earth’. This has increased the incentive to take between May 2012 and March 2013, a total of 61 this project forward as quickly as practicable. million waypoints. For each flight CoCiP was used to predict the total energy forcing (EF) of the contrail/ Last year’s Annual Report presented results of contrail-cirrus it generated – that is the integration studies of contrail statistics by Gierens of DLR, over the life of the contrail, over its length and its stimulated by the Group’s activity. These added evolving width, of its radiative forcing. The units weight to his earlier assertion that most of the of RF are W/m2, the units of EF are Joules. It is contrail RF came from a very small percentage important to note that energy forcing of contrails/ of flights. In his work he developed the concept contrail-cirrus can be both positive (warming) and of ‘Big Hits’, which occur on the infrequent days negative (cooling). The overall warming from contrail- when meteorological conditions at cruise altitudes cirrus is the difference between the warming from are particularly propitious for persistent contrail trapping outgoing longwave radiation from the Earth formation. This work was complemented by a new and the cooling from reflecting incoming short-wave analysis by Poll of the effect on fuel burn of flight radiation from the Sun – both large quantities. The diversions to avoid forming contrails. From these substantial reductions reported by Teoh et al are two studies it was argued in last year’s report that the result of deflecting traffic only after the late taking ATM action to make a small change in the afternoon, so that the major effect is to eliminate cruise altitude of a minority of flights on Big Hit the contrail-cirrus that during the night would have days could substantially reduce RF from persistent trapped the outgoing infra-red radiation. contrails with a very small increase in fuel burn. An increase of 0.025% was suggested for the airlines’ Figure 1 shows the aggregated results, plotting the annual fuel burn. cumulative energy forcing of all the flights in the study as a percentage of the total forcing against These broad conclusions have been reinforced by the number of flights as a percentage of the total. a study by Teoh and Stettler at Imperial College, London, in collaboration with Schumann of DLR, This figure strongly reinforces the conclusions the results of which were published(2) in February from the earlier DLR studies. Some 80% of the 2020. The paper estimates the impact of aviation total energy forcing by AIC was caused by 2% of contrails on climate forcing for flight track data in the flights. For this 2% of flights, which were from Japanese airspace, using the DLR CoCiP (Contrail- the late afternoon onwards. the study evaluated Cirrus Prediction) code. The paper marks a step the effects on contrail forcing of increasing or beyond earlier studies using CoCiP by using a fractal decreasing the cruise altitude by 2,000ft in the ice

24 Royal Aeronautical Society

This figure strongly reinforces the conclusions from the earlier DLR studies. Some 80% of the total energy forcing by AIC was caused by 2% of the flights. For this 2% of flights, which were from the late afternoon onwards. the study evaluated the effects on contrail forcing of increasing or decreasing the cruise altitude by 2,000ft in the ice supersaturated (contrail forming) region. as shown schematically in Fig 1.

The results of this part of the study are shown in Fig 2. The study calculated the reduction in energy forcing for every diverted flight. For each flight It also calculated the change in fuel burn (CO2 emission) caused by the change in altitude, using the BADA3 database. The energy forcing by the change in CO2 emission was determined from the absolute global warming potential (AGWP) with a 100-year time horizon (TH) to align with the Kyoto Protocol. The study includes a table showing the predicted EF for the baseline and diverted flights for contrails alone and for the CO2 EF with a 100-year time TH and also for 20-year and 1,000-year THs. Figure 2a shows the reduction in EF from contrails alone and Fig 2b the reductions from contrails plus CO2 with a 100- year TH. The coloured lines show the averages for each of the six weeks in the study and the black lines shows the overall average. A Monte Carlo simulation was done, taking account of uncertainties in the met conditions and the estimated black carbon emissions, and the shaded areas represents the 95% confidence limits of the estimate.,

Figure 2. ReductionsFigure in contrail 2 Reductions and total in EF contrail by selective and total changes EF byin cruiseselective altitude changes(5). in cruise altitude

In summary, for the total number of flights in this study, the black line lines show that diversion of 1.7% of the flights was predicted to reduce the Energy forcing from CO2 and AIC together of 35.6% supersaturatedand reduce (contrail AIC alone forming) by 59.3%. region. The as estimatedshown fuelThe burn study penalty went foron theto consider, diverted flightsin the longerwas term, schematically0.27%, whichin Fig 1.translates into a fuel burn penalty (andthe increasedwidespread CO adoption2 emission) of cleanerof 0.014% burning for the double fleet. annular combustor (DAC) engines, which produce The results of this part of the study are shown in fewer and shorter-lived contrails than the equivalent Fig 2. TheThe studystudy calculatedwent on to theconsider, reduction in the in longerenergy term, singlethe widespread annular combustor adoption of(SAC) cleaner engines. burning Eventual forcingdouble for every annular diverted combustor flight. For (DAC) each engines, flight which producreplacemente fewer of and the shorter-lived 70% of the contrailscurrent fleet than which the It also calculatedequivalent singlethe change annular in fuelcombustor burn (CO (SAC)2 enginesare. Eventual SAC engines replacement with DAC of enginesthe 70% is of predicted the to emission)current caused fleet by which the change are SAC in enginesaltitude, with using DAC enginesreduce is totalpredicted contrail to reduce EF by 68.8%.total contrail Combined EF by with the BADA368.8%. database. Combined The with energy the diversion forcing by strategy, the net theEF fromdiversion contrails strategy, and CO net2 withEF from a 100-year contrails TH and is changepredicted in CO2 emission to be reduced was determined by 65% and from that the from contrailsCO2 with alone a 100-yearby 91.8%. TH is predicted to be reduced absolute global warming potential (AGWP) with a by 65% and that from contrails alone by 91.8%. 100-yearThere time are horizon two caveats (TH) to with align respect with the to thisKyoto study. One is that, particularly in the light of the Protocol.reassessment The study includes cited above a table of NO showingX RF, which the is sensitiveThere are to cruise two caveats altitude, with future respect studies to ofthis flight predicteddiversion EF for should the baseline take NO andX into diverted account. flights Secondly, for study. as the One authors is that, accept, particularly the BADA3 in the data light set of is the (3) contrailsnot alone suited and to thisfor thestudy. CO The2 EF analysiswith a 100-year by Poll and Schumannreassessment recently cited abovesubmitted of NO forX publicationRF, which is time THwould and alsobe a for better 20-year alternative and 1,000-year for future work. THs. Nevertsensitiveheless, asto cruisePoll agrees, altitude, the future use of studies BADA3 of does flight

Figure 2(a) shows the reduction in EF from contrails diversion should take NOX into account. Secondly, alone and Fig 2(b) the reductions from contrails plus as the authors accept, the BADA3 data set is

CO2 with a 100-year TH. The coloured lines show not suited to this study. The analysis by Poll and the averages for each of the six weeks in the study Schumann(3) recently submitted for publication and the black lines shows the overall average. A would be a better alternative for future work. Monte Carlo simulation was done, taking account Nevertheless, as Poll agrees, the use of BADA3 of uncertainties in the met conditions and the does not change the broad conclusion. A small estimated black carbon emissions, and the shaded change in cruise altitude for a small number of areas represents the 95% confidence limits of the flights on Big Hit days could reduce contrail EF and estimate. total EF substantially with negligible increase in fuel burn for the airlines. In summary, for the total number of flights in this study, the black line lines show that diversion of 1.7% of the flights was predicted to reduce the GEOENGINEERING – SOLAR RADIATION

Energy forcing from CO2 and AIC together of 35.6% MANAGEMENT and reduce AIC alone by 59.3%. The estimated fuel burn penalty for the diverted flights was 0.27%, The term geoengineering has not previously which translates into a fuel burn penalty (and appeared in a Greener by Design Annual Report but increased CO2 emission) of 0.014% for the fleet. it cannot be avoided indefinitely. It is coming down

Greener by Design Annual Report 2019-2020 25 not change the broad conclusion. A small change in cruise altitude for a small number of flights on Big Hit days could reduce contrail EF and total EF substantially with negligible increase in fuel burn for the airlines.

Geoengineering – solar radiation management

The term geoengineering has not previously appeared in a Greener by Design Annual Report but it cannot be avoided indefinitely. It is coming down the track and it will confront the environmental science community with challenging questions.

The term has been applied to two main types of activity, the development of methods to reduce the concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and the development of methods to reduce the warming of the earth by solar radiation. The subject has been controversial and in the past discussion of it has in some places been a scientific taboo. Now, however, the two activities tend to be viewed differently. Reduction in greenhouse gas concentrations, termed carbon removal, carbon capture and storage or carbon sequestration, is something that scholars largely agree we need to do in an effort to avoid dangerous levels of warming. There is now a tendency not to describe it as geoengineering.

To quoteAtmospheric MacMartin et al(3) however, Science writing about efforts to mitigate the emission of greenhouse gases, “there is increasing awareness of the substantial gap between the amount of mitigation needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic climate change and current mitigation commitments.” This leads to the conclusion that it will be necessary in due course to resort to solar geoengineering, sometimes termed solar radiation management, to avoid catastrophic climate change through global warming.

temperature. It will take a considerable time for

large scale CO2 removal technology to emerge but Fig 3 envisages this being developed successfully and deployed progressively from about mid-way through the period shown.

Solar geoengineering is envisaged as the means by which a rise in global temperature above a safe maximum, the ‘overshoot’ shaded blue in Fig 3. is avoided. A range of alternative methods of reducing the rate global of solar energy capture have been investigated theoretically, the most frequently discussed option being the addition of aerosols to the stratosphere to

FigureFigure 3. Schematic 3 Schematic illustration illustration of the deployment of the deploymentof solar geoengineering of solar reflect some sunlight back to space. Not enough geoengineering. Figure 3 illustrates schematically how global temperature (climate impacts) may be envisaged is currently known to support informed decisions evolving with time, By the time the black curve has become horizontal, aggressive cuts in regarding deployment of such approaches but emissions have reduced the net CO2 emission rate to zero but by this time the global CO2 concentration will be associated with an unacceptably high global temperature. It will take a preliminary climate modelling suggests that solar geoengineering in addition to mitigation is likely to the track and it will confront the environmental reduce many climate risks. science community with challenging questions. MacMartin et al(4), from whom Fig 3 has been The term has been applied to two main types of borrowed, discuss the governance issues that have activity, the development of methods to reduce to be addressed in considering the deployment of the concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse solar geoengineering. It is a complex, many faceted gases and the development of methods to reduce and challenging problem for both scientists and the warming of the Earth by solar radiation. The policy makers. Nevertheless, if Fig 3 represents the subject has been controversial and in the past future, the challenge will undoubtedly have to be discussion of it has in some places been a scientific faced. taboo. Now, however, the two activities tend to be viewed differently. Reduction in greenhouse gas It is a topic of some interest to the aviation concentrations, termed carbon removal, carbon community, partly because it might be applied in

capture and storage or carbon sequestration, is the upper atmosphere where the non-CO2 effects something that scholars largely agree we need to of aviation are manifest (though other possibilities do in an effort to avoid dangerous levels of warming. have also been suggested). Also, because aircraft – There is now a tendency not to describe it as perhaps even civil transport aircraft – might be used geoengineering. to distribute the light-reflecting aerosols. Finally, because it has been suggested that the technique of To quote MacMartin et al(4) however, writing about avoiding ISSRs so as not to form warming night-time efforts to mitigate the emission of greenhouse contrail-cirrus could be extended to deliberately gases, “there is increasing awareness of the fly through ISSRs at the right time of day to form substantial gap between the amount of mitigation cooling contrail cirrus. This last suggestion runs needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic climate the risk of strong opposition on the grounds that it change and current mitigation commitments.” This would be geoengineering. The GBD contrail group leads to the conclusion that it will be necessary has therefore created a governance sub group to in due course to resort to solar geoengineering, ensure that future plans are in line with current best sometimes termed solar radiation management, to practice. avoid catastrophic climate change through global warming. REFERENCES Figure 3 illustrates schematically how global temperature (climate impacts) may be envisaged 1. Volker Grewe, Sigrun Matthes and Katrin

evolving with time, By the time the black curve has Dahlmann, The contribution of aviation NOX become horizontal, aggressive cuts in emissions emissions to climate change: are we ignoring

have reduced the net CO2 emission rate to zero methodological flaws? Environmental Research

but by this time the global CO2 concentration will Letters, Institute of Physics (IOP) Publishing, be associated with an unacceptably high global https://elib.dlrl.de/131988/

26 Royal Aeronautical Society Airbus

2. Roger Teoh, Ulrich Schumann, Arnab Majumdar and Marc E J Stettler, Mitigating the Climate Forcing of Aircraft Contrails by Small- Scale Diversions and Technology Adoption. Environmental Science and Technology, https:// dx.doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b05608. 3. D I A Poll and U Schumann, An estimation method for the fuel burn and other performance characteristics of civil transport aircraft in cruise. Part 1 Fundamental quantities and governing relations for a general atmosphere. Published by The Aeronautical Journal online, and will be available in print later this year. 4. Douglas G MacMartin, Peter J Irvine, Ben Kravitz and Joshua B Horton, Technical characteristics of a solar geoengineering deployment and implications for governance. Climate Policy, September 2019, Vol 19, No 10, pp 1325- 1339. 5. Reproduced with permission from Environ Sci Technol. 2020, 54 ,5, 2942 -2950 .Copyright 2020 American Chemical Society.

Greener by Design Annual Report 2019-2020 27 Technology NASA

Technology

The 2019-2020 period has seen continued and on the existing aircraft fleet, much of which will still increasing calls for reduced, and ultimately net-zero be in service during the next 20-30 years. A new emissions from aviation with various governments aircraft introduced in 2035 will represent a small and airlines setting specific timescales for these proportion of the world fleet in 2040, and while aggressive targets to be achieved. In February more significant in 2050 is unlikely to dominate the 2020, the UK Court of Appeal ruled that the Airport market. National Policy Statement was unlawful, because the Government had failed to consider the Paris At the time of writing (June 2020), the impact of the Climate Change Agreement, and consequently the Covid-19 crisis on the airline industry looks massive designation of Heathrow’s third runway as a scheme although the ultimate effects will be defined by the of national importance was voided. This is a sharp recovery profile of air passenger traffic. The short- reminder of the need for continued advances in medium term impact on technology is also unclear aviation technology if the industry is to continue but will clearly be linked to the levels of funding growing. available to finance it.

Aircraft technology improvements have a key role A lack of cash across the industry (airlines and to play in delivering this improvement alongside aircraft supply chain) linked to the availability of operational efficiency and Sustainable Aviation large numbers of reasonably low-cost, relatively Fuels (SAFs). new parked aircraft will challenge new aircraft sales for some time. It may also limit the funds available

SAFs are a critical technology for reducing the CO2 for near term, new technology programmes. Many emissions in the near to mid-term provided they governments have also been forced to borrow are a ‘drop-in’ replacement, ie they can be easily extensively during the crisis and may be less inclined blended with mineral derived aviation fuel and used to fund technology research in the short-term

28 Royal Aeronautical Society Left: NASA and Boeing are collaborating on a lightweight, Opportunities for future development programmes ultra-thin Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW) concept, of new >100-seat Airbus and Boeing passenger designed to be more aerodynamic and fuel-efficient than aircraft looks more limited following a recent wave current designs, as part of the Subsonic Ultra Green of new aircraft programmes and this is likely to Aircraft Research (SUGAR) programme. reinforced by the expected short-mid-term scarcity of cash following the Covid-19 crisis. although getting economies restarted will pull in the opposite direction. The much-reported 220-270 seat Boeing NMA programme, targeting a mid-2020’s EIS with an On the positive side, if older, less efficient aircraft all-new aircraft, is likely to be challenged by the are parked for a considerable time (or permanently) combined effects of the current industry crisis then the average efficiency of the remaining aircraft and the ongoing 737 MAX MCAS (Manoeuvring fleet rises. Characteristics Augmentation System) problems.

Boeing had been targeting a mid-2020 return to EVOLUTIONARY AIRCRAFT DEVELOPMENTS service for the 737 MAX although the challenge of getting the necessary crew training complete The most notable first flight of 2019-2020 was the and aircraft prepared to fly again is likely to delay 777-9 aircraft, offering an estimated ~15-20% fuel widespread usage until later in the year. This is burn (CO2) savings per seat relative to the smaller happening at a time of great uncertainty so how this 777-300ER. Entry into service (EIS) is expected will develop is unclear and is highly dependent on to be in 2021. Along with general technology how the industry recovers, ie when passengers will improvements, the most obvious innovation is feel safe to fly again. the aircraft’s folding wingtips to allow the aircraft to operate efficiently in cruise with no additional There have already been several 737 MAX constraints relative to the 787, A350 and older cancellations and deferments linked to the Covid-19 747-400 aircraft. crisis and there are likely to be further 737 and A320 family cancellations as airlines look to adjust With the ending of A380-800 production and capacity if the traffic levels are much reduced. For probably very limited future 747-8 passenger the first time in many years, there will be excess aircraft sales, the 777-9 is likely to be the largest production capacity on both production lines passenger aircraft for some time, competing with allowing customers greater choice. the A350-1000. The latter is also undergoing a development programme to permit higher density, It should be noted that the hiatus to 737 MAX economy seating to further improve its operating deliveries and operation is an environmental costs per seat – another example of the general negative as older less efficient aircraft have been densification of aircraft passenger cabins that is retained longer to maintain operating schedules. also reducing the CO2 emissions per passenger.

The Embraer 175 E2 made its first flight in December 2019 although, at the time of writing, it The Boeing 777X made its first flight on 25 January 2020. is yet to secure any orders, largely due to US pilot scope clauses limiting numbers of aircraft of this Maximum Take-Off Weight. Boeing

The development programmes for the 88-seat Mitsubishi SpaceJet plus the 160-170 seat Comac 919 and Irkut MC-21 aircraft all continue flight testing with Entry Into Service (EIS) planned for 2021-2022. The latter two are aimed at challenging the dominant position of the established A320 and the 737 aircraft while the Spacejet is targeting the Embraer 190 market. All three new aircraft programmes will initially be using variants of the engines being used for the competing aircraft and therefore will be targeting similar performance standards rather than substantial improvements.

Greener by Design Annual Report 2019-2020 29 Technology

The Sino-Russian CRAIC CR929 aircraft is targeting the 787, A330neo market although this does not appear to be offering a step change

improvement in terms of CO2 emissions.

Embraer are studying the feasibility of a 70-80- seat regional turboprop aircraft to compete with the ATR72 and DHC-8 Q400. The new Xian MA700 70-seat turboprop development continues with a first flight expected soon.

FUTURE AIRCRAFT TYPES

The multitude of recent large aircraft programmes makes it more difficult to see what will trigger the next round of major aircraft programmes that will

deliver further improvements in CO2 emissions.

Wide-body re-engining programmes with the Hybrid Electric Regional Aircraft (HERA). Concept Rolls-Royce Ultrafan and equivalent competing passenger airliner designed by Realise and the Electric architectures are possible in the early 2030’s. Aviation Group (EAG). Realise. Single-aisle aircraft may present the most likely opportunity for new large aircraft programmes given the older, underlying airframe systems of the A320 787-9 fin and stabiliser (it was removed from the and even older 737. The Boeing NMA initiative is 787-10). Some smaller turboprop aircraft can also clearly linked to any future 737 replacement studies. achieve limited laminar flow on the wing surfaces.

Much of the more easily achievable technologies More extensive application of laminar flow have already been incorporated into transport technology to the wings as well as empennage aircraft. Increasing environmental pressure is likely and engine nacelles could deliver 5-10% fuel burn to intensify the drive to adopt some of the more benefits – a major challenge is how to maintain challenging technologies that have not yet been the surface quality in an everyday operational widely included. A number of these technologies environment. and associated research programmes are described below for each of the various major disciplines, although a new technology will often require a multi- STRUCTURES disciplinary development programme to deliver an aircraft level benefit. The EU Clean Sky programme current structural focus is on regional aircraft, business jets and advanced rotorcraft with several major programme AERODYNAMICS milestones planned before the end of 2020. i) June 2020: Integrated Technologies Extensive laminar flow remains one of the last Demonstrator FTB2 – Regional Aircraft IADP. remaining routes to substantial aerodynamic step This includes an advanced composite wing changes on conventional aircraft. It has been the box and trailing edge surfaces linked to load focus of numerous research programmes since the alleviation and wing morphing systems. Ultimate 1940s. In late 2019, the completion of the Clean aircraft level benefits are expected to be lower Sky funded ‘Laminar Nacelle Virtual Demonstrator wing weight at acceptable cost. – airframe Integrated Technology Demonstrator ii) December 2020: Business Jet Composite (ITD)’ was reported – this targeted a 0.5-1% fuel Wing Root Box – Airframe ITD. A 10% weight burn improvement for business jets. The Clean Sky reduction is targeted relative to a conventional programme also funded the 2017 Airbus/EU Clean metallic structure in addition to substantially

Sky BLADE laminar flow wing flight tests. reducing CO2 emissions during its assembly.

To date, laminar flow applications on large transport Polymer based composite materials account for aircraft have been limited to engine nacelles and the ~50% of the airframe structure by weight (~80%

30 Royal Aeronautical Society by component volume) on modern wide-body aircraft, eg Airbus A350 and Boeing 787. Where composite materials are not suitable or cost- effective, aluminium-lithium and titanium alloys are used for much of the remaining structure as both offer significant weight savings relative to the conventional aluminium alloys and stainless steel that they replace.

Aluminium-lithium alloys usage has also increased for recently developed single aisle and business jet fuselage structures, eg Airbus A220, Bombardier Global 7500/8000 and MS-21 aircraft. The Comac 919 and recent Gulfstream models also make use of aluminium-lithium although it is not clear for which components. Airbus at Filton, UK, with the support of Airbus Airbus ‘AlbatrossOne’ and NASA ‘Ptera’ research ProtoSpace, have developed AlbatrossOne, a small-scale, remote-controlled aircraft demonstrator that has programmes have both explored the potential for 'semi-aeroelastic' hinged wing-tips. Airbus. movable outer wing panels that are free to rotate up and down around a streamwise hinge during flight. This is intended to reduce the loads associated propulsion technology with some notable first flight with turbulence and ultimately reduce wing weight milestones achieved. through lower wing root bending loads. The Harbour Air/Magnix project to re-engine a DHC- 2 Beaver float plane achieved a widely publicised SYSTEMS first flight in December 2019 – claimed as the first flight of an electrically powered commercial As well as direct aircraft level weight benefits, passenger aircraft. Impressively, this flight was advanced systems are an important enabler for achieved in less than nine months after the project aerodynamic, structural and propulsive efficiency. was announced to the public – a rugged 1950’s designed utility airframe mated with a state-of- The EU Clean Sky programme includes the-art electric aerospace motor. The aircraft is demonstrator programmes for its regional aircraft illustrated on the front cover of this report. work package. The ‘Iron Bird Demonstrator – Regional IADP’ programmes, targeting June 2021 Little information relating to the battery attributes completion, is studying advanced Regional Aircraft has been made public although the foiur-minute Systems with a focus on electric actuation to reduce flight duration with a single occupant suggests that overall systems mass and their energy demand from battery capacity remains a limiting feature, at least the propulsion system. for now. Clearly, more work is required to certificate the aircraft and develop the charging infrastructure There is also a systems element in the previously to operate this aircraft on Harbour Air’s passenger discussed regional aircraft advanced structures network, but the potential is clear. programme – wing morphing and load alleviation to reduce airframe structural mass. In August 2019, the Norwegian airline, Wideroe, and Rolls-Royce announced a joint research programme to explore options for zero-emissions regional PROPULSION aircraft – the airline has a 2030 EIS target relative to the Norwegian government’s 2040 date for The potential for improved fuel burn from the Rolls- electric only regional flight. Royce Ultrafan programme, and similar programmes from the competing engine manufacturers, is The Eviation Alice nine-seat commuter aircraft discussed previously. development programme continues. The aircraft was on static display at the 2019 Paris air show. Electric Propulsion – The aviation technology Unfortunately, a ground fire was reported on the test headlines through 2019 and into early 2020 aircraft in January 2020 with no subsequent comment continue to be largely dominated by electric on its impact on the aircraft’s development timescales.

Greener by Design Annual Report 2019-2020 31 Technology

Artist’s concept image of NASA’s first all-electric X-plane, the X-57 Maxwell, in its final configuration. NASA.

This event may also hint at some of the challenges of The NASA X-57 Maxwell development continues integrating high-power electrical systems. with a first flight planned for late 2020 with a new wing equipped with electric distributed propulsion. Project ‘Fresson’ was launched in October 2019 with partial UK government funding (through the The fundamental challenge with all current electric Aerospace Technology Institute) to design and propulsion concepts is energy storage mass and develop an electric propulsion system for a Britten- the implications on the aircraft design weights, ie Norman Islander for inter-island operation in the increased landing weights, and the system volume Orkney Islands – this requires a 60-minute flight requirements. This is valid whether the electrical endurance with a 30-minute reserve. energy is sourced from batteries or hydrogen-driven fuel cell generators, although the level of challenge Various other industry led flight demonstrator may differ. programmes were continuing although the impact of the Covid-19 crisis is starting to be seen. The Current technology battery and ‘hydrogen plus tank’ Airbus/Rolls-Royce ‘E-FanX’ electrical propulsion (to drive a fuel cell) energy densities are much lower demonstrator programme using a BAE 146 aircraft than kerosene, even including the reduced losses was cancelled in late April 2020 at the height of the associated with converting electrical energy to crisis with both partners looking to conserve cash. propulsive power and electric motor power/weight Rolls-Royce is reported to intend to continue some advantages. ground testing using the test vehicle. Battery and hydrogen system volumes will also be Since last year, little new information has been greater than that required for kerosene, driving released on the United Technology/Collins Project further changes to the aircraft, ie typically drag 804. This plans to introduce a parallel hybrid-electric and weight, as larger aircraft will be required if the DHC-8-100 or -200 aircraft. Electrical and gas payload is to be maintained. turbine power delivered separately to the propeller drive with the electrical power intended to augment Hence, electrical or even hybrid-electric powered the gas turbine in take-off and climb to permit such aircraft are currently limited to short range operation that the gas turbine can be optimised for cruise. in which the battery or fuel cell must still be capable

32 Royal Aeronautical Society Right: The Airbus MAVERIC (Model Aircraft for Validation and Experimentation of Robust Innovative Controls) 'blended wing body' scale model technological demonstrator has been flying since June 2019. Airbus.

of generating the peak power requirement for take- off or a missed approach.

Distributed Propulsion: This is often associated with electric propulsion as electrical power distribution is less complex than that for liquid fuel or with a mechanical transmission. The NASA X-57 Maxwell is an example of this, although the delays in this programme hint at some of the challenges of electrical power distribution.

Boundary Layer Ingestion (BLI): Both NASA and EU Clean Sky funded HYPER-F programmes have studied or are studying BLI propulsion concepts. Again, electrical power is viewed a key enabler. NASA reported ‘as much as 8.6%’ fuel burn improvement’ due to BLI. The benefit is clearly dependent on the mass associated with the BLI components, the CG effects of more mass in the aft fuselage and the BLI system propulsive efficiency.

CONFIGURATION likely to be intended to calibrate design methods of the parent companies and better understand aircraft The conventional ‘tube and wing’ airframe performance and handling qualities close to the configuration powered by turbofan engines is edge of the flight envelope. often cited as being close to various theoretical limits that constrain further substantial efficiency improvements beyond the current state-of-the-art. ADVANCED ROTORCRAFT This suggests that radical airframe and propulsion configurational changes may be necessary to The Leonardo AW609, a first civil tilt-rotor aircraft, continue progress towards substantially lower is expected to achieve certification later in 2020. aviation CO2 emissions. The EU Clean Sky funded Airbus RACER compound helicopter is currently being assembled with a flight

The potential CO2 benefits of less conventional test programme starting before the end of 2020. aircraft configurations such as Blended/Hybrid Wing Cruise speeds >200kt are targeted, significantly Body (B/HWB) or trussed braced high aspect ratio faster than conventional rotorcraft. wings are well documented, although so are the risks and challenges. These risks are an important In the US, advanced rotorcraft development is led by consideration as the development of a major new the Bell V280 ‘Valor’ tiltrotor and the Sikorsky SB-1 aircraft type is sometimes described as ‘betting the ‘Defiant’ Compound Helicopter. Both aircraft are company’, ie the programme and company success now in flight-test, the latter making its first flight in or failure are tightly bound together. 2019.

However, the growing imperative to deliver the commitments of reduced aviation CO2 emissions SUPERSONICS may be enough to drive this step change. Airbus released information in February 2020 on its Supersonic passenger aircraft development MAVERIC subscale flying wing demonstrator: it continues in the US with aircraft build approaching appears similar to the previous NASA/Boeing X-48 completion for X-59 ‘Quiet SuperSonic Transport’ subscale flight demonstrator. Both programmes are QueSST demonstrator with a first flight planned for

Greener by Design Annual Report 2019-2020 33 Technology

Drag reductions of approximately 10% have been claimed for the following aircraft across various tests although this will be eroded at a network level as the leading aircraft is getting no benefit (or penalty) and some aircraft may exchange operation at a more favourable flight level to gain the formation flying benefits.

This proximity between the aircraft is well within the current minimum specified lateral separations and clearly requires formation keeping technology to ensure the aircraft safely maintain their position at the optimum location for fuel reduction. This must be automated and function safely in all cruise flight conditions.

The Boom XB-1 supersonic aircraft demonstrator is due to roll out on 7 October 2020. Boom. ACARE 2020 CO2 SCORECARD

To finish, it is worth a look at what has been achieved 2021/22. Boom technology are also getting their over the past 20 years. ACARE’s Vision 2020

XB-1 ‘Baby Boom’ 1/3 scale demonstrator ready for document set a target for a 50% reduction in CO2 its first flight planned for 2020. per passenger kilometre for 2020 ‘new aircraft’ – the document was released in January 2001. Although Environmental standards for modern SSTs have still the baseline for this improvement is not explicitly not been agreed with apparent differences between defined, if the 2020 fleet and operation is compared European and US authorities (existing standards for to that of 2000, then the industry has probably Concorde are considered outdated by EASA). The either met or got very close to the target.

EASA website reports an expectation of higher CO2

and non-CO2 effects relative to subsonic aircraft Aircraft and engine technology have probably and is subject of the EU Horizon 2020 RUMBLE contributed 30-40% fuel burn improvements – an (RegUlation and norM for low sonic Boom Levels) A350 and 777-9 fuel burn per seat is ~30% lower research programme. than a 747-400, even better if compared with the substantial 747 classic and DC-10 fleets still operating in 2000. The story is similar for single- OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENTS REQUIRING aisle aircraft comparing the A320 (CEO and NEO) TECHNOLOGY CHANGES and 737 (NG and MAX) families against the large fleets of 737 classics and DC-9 and MD-80 aircraft Both Airbus and Boeing have been studying the fuel operating in 2000. burn benefits of flying aircraft in relatively close proximity (1.5-2.0nm), much like geese flying in a ‘V’ Further significant benefits have been achieved formation. The trailing aircraft (or bird) are positioned though cabin densification (more seats installed in on the outboard side of the wing tip vortex that has existing cabins), increased aircraft average size and an upward vertical velocity component. To maintain operational improvements such as Reduced Vertical altitude, and the relative position to the lead aircraft, Separation Minima and Continuous Descents and the wing lift must be reduced thus reducing the Approach (to minimise hold time before landing and following aircraft’s induced drag. fuel burn on approach).

34 Royal Aeronautical Society Delta Air Lines aircraft parked on a taxiway at Kansas City International Airport due to Covid-19. elisfkc2.

Operations Report

COVID-19 AND THE DEMAND FOR AIR TRAVEL have lost their jobs and older people who rely on company dividends. Many will have had their first Covid-19 is presenting the aerospace industry with experience of ‘zoom’ and other internet meeting a unique set of challenges. Passenger traffic has apps – and become very (or reasonably!) proficient. plunged by 95% and freight by 40%. Business This could well translate into less travel. Equally customers are being forced into alternative methods many businesses will also need to conserve cash of working, and holidaymakers are getting used to and will have had many months to hone their skills staying at home. We are all conscious of the need to on working remotely and changing their working keep 2m apart. Some of the new norms may stick, practices to reduce – or eliminate – the need to with inevitably significant longer-term impacts. travel. Many employees have been working from How long is difficult to judge, but many airlines are home – and do not want to return to the regular assuming for at least two to three years, and maybe commute to the office. Companies have been longer. Airports and aircraft manufacturers are also adapting how they do business, and this includes the facing the effects of reduced demand, and everyone aerospace industry. It is now possible to buy your has the challenge of reorganising the workplace chosen aircraft from Airbus, with all the pre delivery to provide for social distancing. And the biggest checks, payment, registration and inspections American manufacturer was already struggling to done remotely. All that is needed is one trip by the get its grounded 737 MAX back in traffic after two aircrew to pick the plane up. Result: fewer trips by fatal accidents in the last two years. everybody.

All this assumes that a post Covid-19 world will Even if potential business and leisure travellers look the same as before. But will this be true? There have the money, it is clear many travel restrictions are several indications that things will be different, are going to remain in force for some time to come, especially in the travel and holiday markets, which with the added uncertainty of them being lifted, will lead to depressed passenger demand for the changed or re-imposed at virtually no notice. Some foreseeable future. countries (including the UK) are imposing a 14-day quarantine period for arriving air passengers, from A wide swath of society will have less money 15 June. This is a serious disincentive to a holiday than they used to – including youngsters who or business trip abroad, although consistent with

Greener by Design Annual Report 2019-2020 35 Operations Report

Government advice to avoid all non-essential travel. Others are insisting on checking the temperature of would be departing passengers, travel being refused if your temperature is elevated. This introduces further uncertainty into travel plans, as you might be stopped from travelling even if you are suffering from something else. An additional complication is that insurance for Covid-19 related events is now unavailable, so all travel and accommodation costs are very much at the traveller’s risk. And this presupposes that the place you are going to has reopened its hotels, bars and restaurants, theme parks and swimming pools, art galleries and other tourist attractions. If not, or if they may be closed again with no notice, how many tourists will risk coming?

Since mid-March we have all been educated in the need for self-distancing, keeping 2m away from Civil Protection volunteers carrying out health checks in anyone other than members of our household. This February 2020 at Guglielmo Marconi Airport, Bologna, has been a critical action to keep infection rates Italy. Dipartimento Protezione Civile. low. We have all become used to it – a new social norm. However, in any busy space, like an airport it is quite difficult to achieve and totally impractical issues about how you can keep everyone inoculated. and uneconomic on a flight, as several of the low- And younger people will need to be included too, cost carriers have been quick to point out. Hours as some are likely to be asymptomatic carriers. spent on an aircraft sitting really close to someone Potential travellers would need certificates to prove we don’t know will seem much more uncomfortable, their inoculated status, and these could become as and potentially high risk, than it used to seem. While essential as a passport. Under this scenario apart younger passengers may not be deterred, older from the cost of inoculations and certificates, and passengers may well be, not least because of the the lack of insurance cover, the world could return to much higher mortality rate from the virus in older its pre-Covid-19 state, albeit slowly. age groups. This fear of flying may be enhanced if the passenger worries about the state of healthcare in the foreign country they are travelling to, or the COVID-19 AND THE ENVIRONMENT prevalence of the disease, or the potential costs of being hospitalised there. Older people are a very Covid-19 has had a major impact on the important sector for the airline and tourist industries, environment. On the positive side, the ensuing many making frequent trips abroad, often to holiday shutdown of industry, reduced road and air traffic homes or to see family, together with a significant has resulted in a sharp decline in the emissions of

number of longer trips – of the ‘trips of a lifetime’ CO2, NOX and particulates. There has been a very variety. The higher risks for this group will remain, noticeable improvement in air quality in towns and and this group could be very slow to return, and some an almost total absence of contrails in the sky. The never will. Another reason for many years elapsing effect has been world-wide and will almost certainly

before we shall see traffic back to pre-Covid-19 levels. lead to a reduction in the total amount of CO2 in 2020 emitted into the atmosphere compared with Despite the shortage of cash, the changing travel 2019. The European Union is likely to meet its and shopping restrictions, and the fear of being close target for 20% of energy to come from renewable to an infected person at the airport or on a plane, sources, partly because Covid-19 has reduced the main fact determining the shape of the post dramatically energy use, and partly because the UK Covid world will be the availability of a vaccine, and/ has left the EU (and the UK only achieved 11.8% or a drug to treat the disease. Both will have major in 2018) so its departure will raise the EU average. impacts in tackling the disease, assuming that the The UK target was 15%, and again because of vaccine gave immunity for a reasonable length of the shutdown, it may be achieved. Worldwide, time. This is far from certain: it is likely to be less the impact will not be so pronounced, partly than a year judging by immunity given by other because China accounts for over 27% of world

coronavirus antibodies. This will raise major logistical CO2 emissions (and they restarted more or less full

36 Royal Aeronautical Society production in early May), and partly because their third lightest element after hydrogen and helium).

CO2 emissions are rising year on year. So there is a real challenge in making the order of magnitude improvement in energy density, which However, the drastic reduction in flights has given is critical to having a 100-seater aircraft with a the environmental lobby fresh vigour to ensure 1,000 mile range, which would enable a significant emissions from aircraft do not return to previous percentage of flights to be electric. levels. Pressure is being placed on governments to make financial help to the industry dependant Ironically the Covid-19 crisis could take some on reducing emissions in the future. Air France has pressure off aviation. If air traffic remains 60% accepted 4bn Euro in state funds, and 3bn in Euro below previous levels, aviation will contribute less loans, on condition that it will withdraw flights on than 1% of global CO2 (it was 2.7%). No problem domestic routes where the rail journey time is less can be solved by focusing on less than 1% of the than 2.5 hours. It is not clear how the journey times problem, so the focus will rightly switch to cars, are to be calculated, which will allow some wriggle lorries, electricity production and gas central room later on when deciding which routes not to heating. Real progress must be made worldwide restart. There is also some rather vague wording in all these sectors if global warming is to be on becoming a world leading airline with the best halted. Furthermore, assuming the development environmental performance. At the time of writing it of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) continues, it is remains unclear if similar strings may be attached to quite reasonable to assume this could provide 30% state aid (if any) for UK carriers. to 50%+ of aviation’s (much reduced) fuel demand, and with some electric aircraft the balance could well

The first major casualty of the crisis was the met by direct removal and storage of CO2 from the cancellation of the COP26 meeting to be held in atmosphere. The additional demand to power the Glasgow in October. A key part of this was agreeing plants from a green electric supply would be quite on the rules for determining what are to be eligible manageable, given the much smaller requirement. So offsets for the CORSIA scheme, Although critical net zero CO2 emissions could be readily achievable if to the scheme, given the reduction in traffic now the sector was significantly smaller. anticipated this year it is unlikely any offsets will be needed in 2020/21, as CO2 emissions are likely to However, overall while in the short-term emissions be well below last year’s baseline total. COP26 has may be down, longer-term prospects for mitigating now been rescheduled for November 2021, so the and avoiding climate change seem to have taken a detail of the new offset rules will not be known until step backwards as controls and targets are relaxed, the conference concludes. exacerbated by the reduction in funding for research from both industry and governments. Climate The second major casualty has been the call around change is, however, still with us, will accelerate and the world to relax emission standards to reduce the has a greater potential for changing all our lives economic effects of the crisis. China has already more adversely than Covid-19. A sobering thought relaxed the rules on building new coal fired power for today’s youth. stations. In the USA, Republicans are putting pressure on the administration to relax some of the Obama rules protecting the environment, a move HEATHROW DEVELOPMENTS strongly opposed by the Democrats. In June 2019 the House of Commons voted 415- The third major casualty has been aerospace 119 in favour of designating the third runway at companies’ research programmes. Faced with a Heathrow as a scheme of National Significance, major loss of income companies are drastically so expediting its progress through the planning cutting research budgets. As mentioned in the process. However, wending their way through Technology report, Airbus and Rolls are cancelling the courts were a number of appeals brought by their joint project E-fanX, which was planned to environmental groups to overturn this decision. In lead to a hybrid electric aeroplane. Some concern February all the grounds for appeal were rejected has been expressed about electric aircraft, citing – except one. This related to the procedure the difficulties in making them as safe as kerosene- Government had used to produce the Airports powered aircraft, partly because of the battery fire National Policy Statement (ANPS). The procedure for risk. Further work on batteries has exposed how doing this is laid out in the Planning Act 2008, and difficult it is to significantly improve on the power/ the Court of Appeal ruled that the procedure had weight ratio achieved by a Lithium-ion battery, partly not been followed correctly, because Section 5(8) because Lithium is the lightest metal there is (it is requires the government to “include an explanation

Greener by Design Annual Report 2019-2020 37 Operations Report

DECARBONISING TRANSPORT CONSULTATION

In June 2019 the UK Government passed the Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019, a law that requires the UK to achieve ‘net zero’ domestic greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The UK was the first major global economy to do so, and 22 others have now followed suit including France, Spain, Germany, Portugal, New Zealand, Norway (by 2030), Sweden (by 2035) and Austria (by 2040). The key question is ‘how can this be achieved?’

In March this year the Government published a document outlining the challenges in decarbonising transport. They are formidable. All other (non- transport) sectors have reduced their emissions An artist's impression of Heathrow Airport with the third substantially since 1990, whereas transport runway. Heathrow. emissions have remained about the same. This has resulted in transport becoming by default the largest

of how the policy set out in the statement takes CO2 producing sector (126MtCO2e – 28% of net

account of Government policy relating to the total UK CO2 emissions) in 2018. Most of these mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change.” (domestic) transport emissions are from cars and The court concluded that the designation of the taxis (55%), but with HGVs and vans contributing ANPS was unlawful by reason of its failure to take a further 33%. Domestic shipping, buses, trains into account the Government’s commitment to the and aviation contribute the balance. However, these Paris Agreement on climate change, concluded in figures do not include international aviation or

December 2015 and ratified by the United Kingdom shipping, responsible for a further 37 and 8MtCO2e in November of the following year. The Government’s respectively (UK share based on fuel sales in the UK). view was that the Paris Agreement 2015 was an While the shipping figure is unchanged from 1990, International agreement with no standing in English the aviation figure has more than doubled (from law, as it is unincorporated into UK legislation. The 16MtCO2e in 1990). Court of Appeal, however, took a different view, ruling that as the UK government had signed the The paper goes on to outline what is happening in Agreement, it was part of UK aviation policy, and each sector, the strategy to achieve ‘net zero’, and therefore fell within Section 5(8) and should have the incentives the government is offering to reach been considered. The Court therefore found the the net zero objective. These include grants for plug Government had not fully complied with the Planning in electric cars, funding for ultra-low emissions buses Act and therefore the decision to designate APNS and grants for powering trains directly from solar was unlawful. This rendered the ANPS in its current energy. form unable to have legal effect although the Secretary of State may review it in line with relevant The section on Aviation is disappointingly brief. It statutory regulations. reiterates the Department for Transport central projection (pre Covid-19) that aviation demand Despite the Government deciding against appealing, (including domestic) will rise by 73% between 2018 Heathrow Airport Ltd decided to do so, and their and 2050. However, improvements in efficiency application to appeal was granted by the Supreme driven in part by larger planes and in part by limited Court on 6 May. No date has been set for the hearing use of SAF result in emissions remaining broadly but, despite Covid-19, HAL’s Chief Executive flat. Clearly this is not satisfactory against a net zero remains optimistic that extra capacity will be needed objective and Government stresses the steps it is at Heathrow in due course. One reason for this could taking to persuade the International Civil Aviation be more frequent domestic flights, perhaps provided Organization (ICAO) to adopt a more stringent by smaller electric aircraft. However, with the steep approach, consistent with the Paris Agreement, at decline in air traffic due to Covid-19, Heathrow its next assembly meeting in 2022. The Government Airport’s Chief Executive, John Holland Kaye, at also indicates that if progress is too slow or a Transport Select committee hearing the same ineffective, it would consider including the UK share day, said he thought the third runway would not be of International aviation in the UK domestic target. needed for around 10 -15 years. This would be a very significant step, not least

38 Royal Aeronautical Society because it could disadvantage UK aviation, and of Technology in Zurich to develop a renewable jet merely displace demand to other countries. fuel from water, sunlight and CO2 extracted from the atmosphere, to make a synthetic gas, which can be It also is premature, as later this year the Government used to produce jet fuel. is scheduled to produce a consultation paper on aviation and the net zero target, including advice It is also important to note that many airlines, from the Committee for Climate Change. As detailed including BA, have already set themselves a target in the earlier sections of this Annual Report, the of meeting a net zero target by 2050. There is no Government has not fully considered the other disagreement about the net zero target. There is no ways of reaching net zero. SAF production could be disagreement on the methods that are available to expanded, electric aircraft could be used on shorter achieve net zero. The only area of disagreement is flights, or the ability of market-based measures among experts about how successful the various (including CORSIA) to impact demand seem all to approaches will be, many of which are still in their have been ignored. There is also no mention of the infancy and need considerable further development. possibility of offsetting the CO2 produced by direct There should therefore be widespread support removal from the atmosphere, a technology that for investigating these various solutions, while although still experimental, is expanding rapidly. recognising that a combination of measures is likely There are also many other possibilities being to be the optimum solution. In the 20 years since investigated: for example the Lufthansa Group has GBD was founded its message is as valid as ever – the recently teamed up with the Swiss Federal Institute way forward for aviation is Greener by Design.

The Greener by Design Group

Greener by Design was formed in 1999 by the Royal Aeronautical Society and bodies representing airports, UK airlines and the aerospace industry, bringing together experts from every part of the aviation industry with Government bodies and research institutions. The initiative is supported by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and other bodies in the aviation sector but it is non-aligned, researching and advising independently of any interest.

Greener by Design

Researches, assesses and advises Government and industry on operational, technological, economic and regulatory options for limiting aviation’s environmental impact. Promotes best practice across the aviation and aerospace sectors. Promotes a balanced understanding of aviation’s true environmental impact and its environmental programmes, in liaison with other groups with similar objectives. Issues an annual report and holds an annual conference and workshops on sustainable aviation.

The next annual Greener by Design Conference, ‘RAeS Climate Change Conference 2020 – Recovery strategy with climate gain’, will be held virtually on 3 and 4 November 2020. There will also be

a real conference in May 2021 on the non-CO2 effects of Aviation on Climate Change.

Greener by Design Annual Report 2019-2020 39 Global Market-Based Measures

Greener DESIGNby

Air Travel – Greener by Design draws on the expertise of industry and academia. Any views expressed in this report are those of Greener by Design and do not necessarily represent the view of the Royal Aeronautical Society as a whole.

For further information or comments on this paper Air Travel – Greener by Design ROYAL AERONAUTICAL SOCIETY No.4 Hamilton Place London W1J 7BQ, UK +44 (0)20 7670 4300 aerosociety.com/GreenerbyDesign

40 Royal Aeronautical Society