AIR TRAVEL – GREENER BY DESIGN ANNUAL REPORT 2019-2020 Greener DESIGNby NASA Greener by Design Executive Committee Prof Peter Bearman Jonathon Counsell Roger Gardner Dr John Green Ian Jopson Dr Ray Kingcombe Geoff Maynard Kevin Morris Prof Ian Poll Dr Marc Stettler Robert Whitfield Dr Richard Wilson Roger Wiltshire Front cover: Harbour Air DHC-2 Beaver fitted with Magnix all-electric motor. Harbour Air. 2 Royal Aeronautical Society GREENER BY DESIGN ANNUAL REPORT 2019-2020 Contents Introduction 4 Conference Report 6 Carbon Pricing through effective Market-Based Measures 16 Atmospheric Science 22 Technology 28 Operations Report 35 Top: Magnix all-electric nine (plus two crew) Cessna 208B Grand Caravan on test. Magnix. Greener by Design Annual Report 2019-2020 3 Introduction Introduction Unprecedented and dramatic climatic events have income and air travel. The effects could be more far hit the headlines in the last year. Whether It has been reaching if a vaccine to protect us against the virus frequent severe storms, forest fires, sandstorms, is elusive. Several years are likely to elapse before air severe drought or extensive flooding, it has brought travel returns to 2019 levels. home to almost everyone, sadly in many cases quite literally, the reality of climate change. We ignore it Ironically the lockdown has also cut air pollution at our and our children’s peril. It should come as no by 50%, and CO2 emissions perhaps by as much surprise to anyone who lives in a democracy that as 20%. So while the virus with its personal tragic interest in, and scrutiny of, environmental issues has consequences for many is still occupying the continued to grow rapidly – almost matching China’s headlines, the lockdown shows what could be done growth in CO2 emissions, now at 28% of the world about cutting CO2 emissions if the motivation was total! strong enough. Many environmental groups around the world are putting pressure on Governments to be This pressure led the UK Government last summer brave and take more radical action. While the Covid to tighten the requirements in the Climate Change pandemic has been a terrible tragedy for many, the Act 2008. Instead of the previous target of an 80% world needs to resolve to tackle Climate Change reduction in domestic CO2 emissions between 1990 with the same urgency and determination to avoid a and 2050, the new target is net zero by 2050. climate catastrophe of wide-ranging consequences Although this legislation excludes international in the latter part of this century. aviation and shipping, the Government stated in Parliament that they plan to include these later and BA was the first airline that committed to do what it asked the Climate Change Committee (CCC) to takes to achieve net zero CO2 emissions on all their provide advice on how this could be done. flights by 2050, a lead now followed by many others. However, Covid-19 will have a major impact on these In September 2019 the CCC responded by doubting plans. The 20th anniversary GBD conference will the greater use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel or the therefore be a virtual conference on the subject – introduction of all electric aircraft before 2050. Recovery strategy with climate gain – scheduled for Instead they advocated strong demand management 3 and 4 November in London. We hope you will be to halve anticipated growth by 2050. These are, able to join us and also for a special ‘real’ conference in GBD’s view, pessimistic assumptions which on the non-CO2 effects of Aviation on Global disregard the industry’s past record on innovation Warming in May 2021. and ignore research currently being undertaken. However, in March 2020 all this was overtaken by the Covid-19 pandemic. Suddenly life for all of us changed dramatically with the lockdown. Air traffic plunged by over 90% and hopes for the annual holiday abroad this year evaporated. Social distancing, working from home and virtual meetings have become the new norm. How much of this will change our attitudes and habits permanently Geoff Maynard remains to be seen, but it is bound to have a Chair significant short-term effect on the economy, our Greener by Design 4 Royal Aeronautical Society The CTi fan system on the Advanced Low Pressure System engine demonstrator. Rolls-Royce. Greener by Design Report 2018-2019 5 Conference Report Singapore Airlines’ A350-900 Flight SQ31 being fuelled for the first Green Package flight from San Francisco to Singapore on 1 May 2017, powered by a combination of sustainable biofuel produced from used cooking oils and conventional jet fuel. Airbus. Greener by Design Conference Report INTRODUCTION He stressed that the three sectors overlap, and that they all require innovative leaders. The Society’s role The 2019 Greener by Design Conference ‘Aviation was to foster, encourage and support the industry and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge’ was held to attract and retain high quality individuals who at No.4 Hamilton Place on 7 November 2019. The could contribute to the sustainability of the aviation conference was opened by Geoff Maynard, Chair of sector. Greener by Design, who welcomed all the delegates to discuss this challenging topic. WHERE ARE WE? The opening address was given by Sir Brian Burridge, Chief Executive Officer of the Royal The first session was opened by Professor Piers Aeronautical Society, who spoke on Creating Forster, member, UK Committee on Climate Change Sustainable Sectors. He identified three key (CCC) and Director, Priestley International Centre sectors: (1) the Future of Flight, including Urban Air for Climate, University of Leeds, who reviewed the Mobility, Defence, Space Capability and Aircraft climate science in the light of recent IPCC reports Design; (2) Climate Change & Sustainability, and the UK net zero target, aviation’s share of including Environmental issues, Sustainable Aviation carbon dioxide emissions, non-CO2 climate effects Fuels, Carbon Offsetting and Regulation; and (3) of aviation and pathways compatible with net- Tomorrow’s Aerospace Professional, including zero. He noted that the world had significantly Diversity and Inclusion, Social mobility, and transformed over the past ten years and was Recruitment and Retention of personnel. now focused on meeting a target limiting global 6 Royal Aeronautical Society temperatures to no more than 1½°C, over pre- industrial levels. As far as aviation was concerned, over this period there had been an increase in passenger kilometres, but the CO2 emissions had kept remarkably constant up to the present, however this trend was now starting to increase again. As a result, meeting the UK’s net-zero target requires new technologies to be developed and implemented, including carbon capture and storage (CCS). The economic viability of future options required closer analysis ie at £200/tonne CO2 CCS, was it more sensible to focus on this rather than concentrating on sustainable aviation fuel Lord Adair Turner proposes the Mission Possible during (SAF)? SAF did, however, offer some potential for the conference. Ben Robins, FutureProofCreative. mitigation, but there was still a need to reduce ice formation from its use. He also noted that it wasn’t possible to offset everything. together to ensure its successful implementation, With respect to the IPCC, and aviation’s effect which would put $40bn into climate mitigation on the atmosphere including non-CO2 emissions, removing 2.5bn tonnes of CO2 over its lifetime. Piers noted that they were just about to submit an update to the Radiative Forcing values, but in The industry foresaw the future being driven by reality they don’t expect things to change much: CO2 SAF, and he noted that the first flight using this emissions were up by about 20%, while the effects was in 2005 – to date 200,000 commercial flights of both NOX and SOX were reduced. Soot impacts had been completed using SAF, with five airports were higher, and contrails and cirrus clouds were already supplying it from 11 production facilities expected to have a much larger effect. worldwide, currently representing 0.01% of total aviation fuel production. The industry target is for Radiative Forcing (RF) was still seen as a good 2% of all jet fuel being supplied as SAF by 2025, way of comparing the warming impacts from the but this needs further investment – he noted that different emission species, but more intensive the UK Government was leading in producing the analyses of climate simulations have led to the framework for SAF production. development of Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) which is seen as a much better measure. The industry ‘Waypoint 2050’ project for getting to a target of 50% net CO2 on a 2005 baseline had In conclusion, the view of aviation’s CO2 and non- been announced at the Paris air show, and it was CO2 impacts on the global atmosphere, have not hoped that the ICAO Assembly would also mandate really changed that much at all. it. The question was is 50% enough when some States were targeting net zero by 2050? It was Michael Gill, Executive Director, Air Transport clear that some airlines and geographical areas can Action Group, gave an industry update noting that and should move quicker, but he didn’t believe it was currently, and in up to 30 years’ time (2050), the feasible everywhere. industry had a fuel efficiency target of increasing at 1.5% per year. To date, the performance currently The option of ‘Green taxes’ had been raised again stands at 2.3%, significantly higher (almost double) in the EU, which seemed an easy solution, but their than the rest of the economy. effectiveness was suspect and the solution explored in EU would not be acceptable in other parts of the The industry was also on-track to deliver the Carbon world, especially in the Southeast and Southern Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International countries.