The Coming Wave of Bell’s Electric U.S. Air Force’s Bombardier Aircraft Retirements Anti-Torque System Budget Gamble Back to Business

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DEPARTMENTS FEATURES 36 | Cooperative Benefit 6 | Feedback 15 | The Launchpad 16 | Head-to-Head Wake-surfing to save fuel, Airbus’ 8 | Who’s Where 56 | Classified Boeing steers its NMA design to blended wing body and U.S. and 10 | First Take 57 | Contact Us counter nearer-term competition European air mobility changes 12 | Up Front 57 | Aerospace from the Airbus A321XLR 13 | Going Concerns Calendar 46 | Tough Choices 17 | USAF faces spending dilemma, 14 | Leading Edge Uncertain Future Bombardier sales of its A220 stake Congress pushes back on the and rail-car unit leave it “the only budget request, and NASA budget pure-play in the bizjet end-market” spotlights exploration over science

COMMERCIAL AVIATION 29 | Defense industry wants to maintain 19 | Boeing 737 MAX inventory momentum for European FCAS clearing may continue into 2022 30 | New technologies allow students 20 | Revised 737 MAX simulator to achieve more per flight hour training is taking shape ROTORCRAFT 22 | CAAC backs airline mergers as 32 | Bell achieves a first with flight of COVID-19 epidemic response electric anti-torque system demo 23 | Boeing and Airbus need more SPACE widebody orders from China 33 | Blue Origin opens engine factory at 24 | Air transport aircraft Marshall Space Flight Center retirements are on the rise 34 | With successful launch, OneWeb’s UNMANNED AVIATION spacecraft network grows to 40 26 | Collins Aerospace nears completion 35 | Starliner gives Boeing a hard of drone data link project lesson in how not to verify software DEFENSE EDITORIAL 28 | PHASA-35 first flight is an initial 58 | Bombardier and the perils of step to year-round endurance government interference

33

Blue Origin is building a test site Based on earlier cooperative-trajectory flight tests involving an A380, Airbus is taking for BE-4 and BE-3U engines at a lead in advancing wake-surfing for energy from a research project to an operational Marshall Space Flight Center to capability that commercial airlines can use to reduce fuel consumption. Technology supplement its current site in West Executive Editor Graham Warwick’s report begins on page 36. Airbus photo.

Texas (pictured). Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST

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AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 3 Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 Bureau Chiefs Auckland Adrian [email protected] Beijing GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe Bradley Perrett [email protected] dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Cape Canaveral Irene Klotz [email protected] IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Chicago Lee Ann Shay [email protected] Market Briefi ngs. Frankfurt Jens Flottau [email protected] These sector-specifi c intelligence Houston Mark Carreau [email protected] briefi ngs empower busy Kuala Lumpur executives to stay-ahead of the Marhalim Abas [email protected] London market, identify opportunities and Tony Osborne [email protected] drive revenue. Los Angeles Guy Norris [email protected] Lyon Thierry Dubois [email protected] LEARN MORE: Moscow Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] aviationweek.com/marketbriefi ngs New Delhi Jay Menon [email protected] Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected]

President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Lisa Caputo UNPARALLELED PERFORMANCE. Art Director Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie UNMATCHED SUSTAINMENT. Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria By setting new standards in power, reliability, and fuel efficiency, the revolutionary PW800 will Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq change the game for long range strike. And its robust commercial sustainment infrastructure MILITARY ENGINES Data & Analytics will allow the Air Force to keep the B-52 dependable through 2050 and beyond. Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production LEARN MORE AT PW.UTC.COM/B52 Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 Bureau Chiefs Auckland Adrian [email protected] Beijing GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe Bradley Perrett [email protected] dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Cape Canaveral Irene Klotz [email protected] IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Chicago Lee Ann Shay [email protected] Market Briefi ngs. Frankfurt Jens Flottau [email protected] These sector-specifi c intelligence Houston Mark Carreau [email protected] briefi ngs empower busy Kuala Lumpur executives to stay-ahead of the Marhalim Abas [email protected] London market, identify opportunities and Tony Osborne [email protected] drive revenue. Los Angeles Guy Norris [email protected] Lyon Thierry Dubois [email protected] LEARN MORE: Moscow Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] aviationweek.com/marketbriefi ngs New Delhi Jay Menon [email protected] Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected]

President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACK RUPA HARIA/AVIATION WEEK

‘THE FASTEST WITH THE MOST-EST’ Reading “Hyper HAWCs” (Feb. 10-23, p. 18), I reflected that throughout human history, there has been one way to determine which humans have won wars, obtained the highest standards of living and had the most personal, economic and political freedoms. The prize always goes to those who can BEHIND THE SCENES most rapidly bring the most advanced capabilities to the desired points of Though attendance at the Singapore Airshow was reduced due to global fears about conflict. In other words: Who gets the COVID-19 outbreak, Aviation Week’s team was there to cover the show and there “the fastest with the most-est.” conducted a Commercial Aviation & Defense Market Trends Briefing. Speaking at the Those who failed to understand this briefing were (from left):Paul Burton, Aviation Week’s Asia-Pacific managing director; simple fact lost their freedoms, their Defense Editor Steve Trimble; Craig Caffrey, senior aerospace industry analyst; Jens property, their prosperity and worse. Flottau, executive editor for Commercial Aviation; Chen Chuanren, Southeast Asia Anyone who thinks this has changed and China correspondent for Air Transport World; and Senior Editor Guy Norris. is living in a fantasy world. If we fall behind in hypersonics, readers of Avia- tion Week know what happens next. be long gone, as would the repeated fail- CO2-footprint of a train trip (including ures in governance and fiscal discipline. all detours) versus a flight with a great Steve Willie, Olympia, Washington circle distance of 1,000 km is two- Martin Abbott, Scottsdale, Arizona thirds smaller. For comparison: CATAPULT COMMUNICATION CGN-BCN one way, by train = 26.2 kg The article “U.S. Navy Carrier Finally CORRECTING LITTLE MISTAKES CO2, by air = 106.1 kg CO2. This still Hosts Aircraft” (Feb. 10-23, p. 24) First, thanks for putting out a really excludes the additional climate effects brings to mind an earlier AW&ST great magazine every couple of of other GHG emissions, especially for article (June 17-30, 2019, p. 111) about weeks—I enjoy all of it, even though emissions in high altitudes (nitrogen the French Navy retrofit of its carrier my aviation career was strictly mili- oxides, ozone, water, soot, sulphur). with an electromechanical catapult tary (U.S. Marine Corps back-seater in See ecopassenger.org/ system that permitted more launch the F-4 Phantom). weight variations than the current That said, I wanted to point out a And MICHAELM notes: steam (I assume) system. Perhaps the minor error in the letter “Who Does Unfortunately the US has fallen U.S. Navy should consider communi- Better?” in the Feb. 10-23 “Feedback” behind the rest of the world in a cation with its French counterpart. section. The conversion of 10,000 balanced transport system. We do liters to 26,400 gal. is off by a factor of need both air and ground. We live in Peter Roth, Pleasant Hill, California 10—it should be 2,640. an age where people move around Someone once said, “The devil is in a lot for business and pleasure. The BACKFIRE AT BOMBARDIER the details.” Someone wiser than that disadvantage the US has over most of Your article “Exit Signs at Bombardier” said, “Flying is a constant process of the world: We do not have sufficient (Jan. 27-Feb. 9, p. 8) scratches the sur- correcting little mistakes before they ground transportation and the rail face of the fundamental problem with become big mistakes!” Amen to that! system we have is still use outmoded a so-called public company having the diesel trains as opposed to electrified government as its banker. Bombar- Julian “Jay” Stienon, San Marcos, high speed trains. dier embarked on high-risk aerospace California The tragedy; we do not understand projects because it knew it could and believe that we have a major transfer that risk to the Canadian tax- Editor’s note: The reader is correct. shortfall. payer with C$4 billion of government handouts over the years. The govern- ONLINE, in response to “Why You Should CORRECTION: ments involved purportedly did so to Not Be Ashamed To Fly” (Feb. 10-23, p. 74), An item in “First Take” in the Feb. 10-23 promote an important industry and ULF.WEBER writes: issue (p. 8) should have stated that create jobs. It backfired. Dear George, sorry to say but I don’t Myrtle Beach International Airport is Woefully inadequate execution of the agree with your facts and figures. A in South Carolina. projects by Bombardier has resulted comparable train trip in Europe emits in fire sales of its aerospace businesses only one third (and not 30% less as This item has been corrected online and and thousands of Canadian jobs lost. you stated) CO2 of a flight, i.e. the in our digital archive. Customary corporate and fiscal disci- pline went AWOL. And yet the political- ly connected Beaudoin family still has Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, voting control! If the rules of modern 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: corporate governance applied, the [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity; control by the Beaudoin family would a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACK RUPA HARIA/AVIATION WEEK

‘THE FASTEST WITH THE MOST-EST’ Reading “Hyper HAWCs” (Feb. 10-23, p. 18), I reflected that throughout human history, there has been one way to determine which humans have won wars, obtained the highest standards of living and had the most personal, economic and political freedoms. The prize always goes to those who can BEHIND THE SCENES most rapidly bring the most advanced capabilities to the desired points of Though attendance at the Singapore Airshow was reduced due to global fears about conflict. In other words: Who gets the COVID-19 outbreak, Aviation Week’s team was there to cover the show and there “the fastest with the most-est.” conducted a Commercial Aviation & Defense Market Trends Briefing. Speaking at the Those who failed to understand this briefing were (from left):Paul Burton, Aviation Week’s Asia-Pacific managing director; simple fact lost their freedoms, their Defense Editor Steve Trimble; Craig Caffrey, senior aerospace industry analyst; Jens HELPING AIRLINES STAY AHEAD property, their prosperity and worse. Flottau, executive editor for Commercial Aviation; Chen Chuanren, Southeast Asia Anyone who thinks this has changed and China correspondent for Air Transport World; and Senior Editor Guy Norris. FOR 10 YEARS AND COUNTING is living in a fantasy world. If we fall behind in hypersonics, readers of Avia- tion Week know what happens next. be long gone, as would the repeated fail- CO2-footprint of a train trip (including ures in governance and fiscal discipline. all detours) versus a flight with a great Steve Willie, Olympia, Washington circle distance of 1,000 km is two- Martin Abbott, Scottsdale, Arizona thirds smaller. For comparison: CATAPULT COMMUNICATION CGN-BCN one way, by train = 26.2 kg The article “U.S. Navy Carrier Finally CORRECTING LITTLE MISTAKES CO2, by air = 106.1 kg CO2. This still Hosts Aircraft” (Feb. 10-23, p. 24) First, thanks for putting out a really excludes the additional climate effects brings to mind an earlier AW&ST great magazine every couple of of other GHG emissions, especially for article (June 17-30, 2019, p. 111) about weeks—I enjoy all of it, even though emissions in high altitudes (nitrogen the French Navy retrofit of its carrier my aviation career was strictly mili- oxides, ozone, water, soot, sulphur). with an electromechanical catapult tary (U.S. Marine Corps back-seater in See ecopassenger.org/ system that permitted more launch the F-4 Phantom). weight variations than the current That said, I wanted to point out a And MICHAELM notes: steam (I assume) system. Perhaps the minor error in the letter “Who Does Unfortunately the US has fallen U.S. Navy should consider communi- Better?” in the Feb. 10-23 “Feedback” behind the rest of the world in a cation with its French counterpart. section. The conversion of 10,000 balanced transport system. We do liters to 26,400 gal. is off by a factor of need both air and ground. We live in Peter Roth, Pleasant Hill, California 10—it should be 2,640. an age where people move around Someone once said, “The devil is in a lot for business and pleasure. The BACKFIRE AT BOMBARDIER the details.” Someone wiser than that disadvantage the US has over most of Your article “Exit Signs at Bombardier” said, “Flying is a constant process of the world: We do not have sufficient (Jan. 27-Feb. 9, p. 8) scratches the sur- correcting little mistakes before they ground transportation and the rail face of the fundamental problem with become big mistakes!” Amen to that! system we have is still use outmoded a so-called public company having the diesel trains as opposed to electrified government as its banker. Bombar- Julian “Jay” Stienon, San Marcos, high speed trains. dier embarked on high-risk aerospace California The tragedy; we do not understand projects because it knew it could and believe that we have a major transfer that risk to the Canadian tax- Editor’s note: The reader is correct. shortfall. payer with C$4 billion of government handouts over the years. The govern- ONLINE, in response to “Why You Should CORRECTION: ments involved purportedly did so to Not Be Ashamed To Fly” (Feb. 10-23, p. 74), An item in “First Take” in the Feb. 10-23 promote an important industry and ULF.WEBER writes: issue (p. 8) should have stated that create jobs. It backfired. Dear George, sorry to say but I don’t Myrtle Beach International Airport is Congratulations to Air Lease Corporation for supporting the world’s fl eet for the last decade. As a leading aircraft Woefully inadequate execution of the agree with your facts and figures. A in South Carolina. leasing company, ALC’s fl eet is comprised of more than 370 aircraft on lease with a globally diversifi ed customer base projects by Bombardier has resulted comparable train trip in Europe emits in fire sales of its aerospace businesses only one third (and not 30% less as This item has been corrected online and of 108 airlines in 59 countries. We applaud ALC’s commitment to providing cutting-edge commercial air solutions, and and thousands of Canadian jobs lost. you stated) CO2 of a flight, i.e. the in our digital archive. look forward to many more years of partnership together. Customary corporate and fiscal disci- pline went AWOL. And yet the political- ly connected Beaudoin family still has Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, voting control! If the rules of modern 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: corporate governance applied, the Letters may be edited for length and clarity; [email protected] boeing.com/commercial control by the Beaudoin family would a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST WHO’S WHERE

Carroll Lane has Zuccaro, who has 37 years of experience at the FAA and been named pres- retired. Defense Department. ident of Pratt & Opener has hired Lance R. Collins has been selected Whitney’s commer- Ben Diachun as as the inaugural vice president and cial engines unit. He CEO. Diachun executive director of the new Virginia was leader of inves- worked at Scaled Tech Innovation Campus in Alexan- tor relations at Pratt Composites for 16 dria, Virginia. He was the Joseph parent United Technologies Corp. years on key engineering design and Silbert Dean of Engineering at (UTC). He succeeds Christopher flight-test direction and stepped into Cornell University. Calio, who became president of Pratt leadership roles. He was part of the Mitre Corp. has hired Craig Acker- & Whitney Jan. 1. team awarded the Robert J. Collier man as vice president of operations Collins Aerospace has promoted Trophy in 2004 for the development and business transformation. He was Stephen Timm to president from of SpaceShipOne. a principal and head of robotic pro- head of the commercial avionics The Association for Unmanned cess automation at Chazey Partners. business. He succeeds Kelly Ortberg, Vehicle Systems International has hired Milestone Aviation has promoted who is now special advisor to UTC Richard King as senior vice presi- Pat Sheedy to CEO from head of Chairman/CEO Greg Hayes, as the dent of regulatory and international engine-lease underwriting, portfolio company merges with Raytheon. David affairs. He was director of Aviation management and cargo risk manage- Nieuwsma succeeds Timm as avionics Information Software, where he ment for the GECAS president; he had led the interiors brought to market an app providing helicopter-leasing unit. Kevin Myers now heads opera- single-source access subsidiary. tions and quality; he had been avionics to all 1.5 million FAA Patrick Hannigan vice president of op- safety rules. has been promoted erations and quality. Daniel Song has to CEO of CDB Christophe been appointed Aviation. Hannigan, Bruneau has been Korean Air managing who had been presi- named vice presi- vice president/direc- dent and chief commercial officer, suc- dent of the military tor of the Americas, ceeds Peter Chang, who has retired. engines division at which encompasses Canada, Mexico CDB is a wholly owned Irish subsidi- Safran Aircraft En- and South America. Song was man- ary of China Development Bank gines. Bruneau was CEO of EPI GmbH aging vice president of passenger net- Financial Leasing. and of the AES2 GmbH joint venture works and sales. Aerojet Rocketdyne has hired Andreas of Safran Electronics & Defense and FlightSafety Textron Aviation Train- Wagner as chief human resources MTU Aero Engines, which is devel- ing, a FlightSafety division established officer. Wagner was vice president of oping the powerplant for Europe’s in April 2019, has named Rich High as human resources for TE Connectivity. Future Combat Air System. CEO. He succeeds Brian Moore, who Tony Wood, Meggitt CEO and Alsalam Aerospace Industries has has been promoted to FlightSafety former president of Rolls-Royce named Karl E. Jeppesen acting presi- International senior vice president Aerospace, has been named president dent and CEO of the maintenance, re- of operations. Moore succeeds Dann of ADS, the UK aerospace and de- pair and overhaul company. Jeppesen Runik, who has left the company. fense trade organization. He succeeds had been supply chain vice president CAE has appointed Todd Probert Colin Smith. at Boeing Defense, Space and Security. group president of defense and securi- Trust Automation, a supplier of au- The National Air Transportation ty. He succeeds Gene Colabatistto, who tomation technology for industrial and Association has promoted Tim Obitts has retired. Probert led Raytheon’s defense applications, has hired Teddy to president/CEO from chief operating command, control, Ross as chief operations officer. officer. He succeeds space and intelli- Gary Dempsey, who gence business. HONORS AND ELECTIONS has stepped down. Objectstream has The National Air and Space Museum Sheryl Bunton has hired Vaughn Turner achievement trophy has been re- been promoted to as senior vice presi- named The Michael Collins Trophy, in Gulfstream Aerospace dent of aerospace en- honor of Apollo 11’s command module Corp. senior vice gineering. The com- pilot. Its 2020 recipients are Charles president and chief pany supplies information technology Elachi, for lifetime achievement, and information officer (CIO) from CIO. and avionics equipment for aviation the Hubble Space Telescope Team, for Before Gulfstream, Bunton was world- and cybersecurity clients. Vaughn has current achievement. c wide CIO for AGCO Corp. and before that was CIO at Southwire Co. To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files (no The Vertical Flight Society has ap- PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on pointed James A. Viola president and companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence CEO of Helicopter Association Inter- Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone national. Viola succeeds Matthew S. U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST WHO’S WHERE

Carroll Lane has Zuccaro, who has 37 years of experience at the FAA and been named pres- retired. Defense Department. ident of Pratt & Opener has hired Lance R. Collins has been selected Whitney’s commer- Ben Diachun as as the inaugural vice president and cial engines unit. He CEO. Diachun executive director of the new Virginia was leader of inves- worked at Scaled Tech Innovation Campus in Alexan- tor relations at Pratt Composites for 16 dria, Virginia. He was the Joseph parent United Technologies Corp. years on key engineering design and Silbert Dean of Engineering at (UTC). He succeeds Christopher flight-test direction and stepped into Cornell University. Calio, who became president of Pratt leadership roles. He was part of the Mitre Corp. has hired Craig Acker- & Whitney Jan. 1. team awarded the Robert J. Collier man as vice president of operations Collins Aerospace has promoted Trophy in 2004 for the development and business transformation. He was Stephen Timm to president from of SpaceShipOne. a principal and head of robotic pro- head of the commercial avionics The Association for Unmanned cess automation at Chazey Partners. business. He succeeds Kelly Ortberg, Vehicle Systems International has hired Milestone Aviation has promoted who is now special advisor to UTC Richard King as senior vice presi- Pat Sheedy to CEO from head of Chairman/CEO Greg Hayes, as the dent of regulatory and international engine-lease underwriting, portfolio company merges with Raytheon. David affairs. He was director of Aviation management and cargo risk manage- Nieuwsma succeeds Timm as avionics Information Software, where he ment for the GECAS president; he had led the interiors brought to market an app providing helicopter-leasing unit. Kevin Myers now heads opera- single-source access subsidiary. tions and quality; he had been avionics to all 1.5 million FAA Patrick Hannigan vice president of op- safety rules. has been promoted erations and quality. Daniel Song has to CEO of CDB Know. Predict. Connect. Christophe been appointed Aviation. Hannigan, Bruneau has been Korean Air managing who had been presi- named vice presi- vice president/direc- dent and chief commercial officer, suc- With more than 50 tradeshows, conferences and executive dent of the military tor of the Americas, ceeds Peter Chang, who has retired. summits produced annually, our world-renowned global engines division at which encompasses Canada, Mexico CDB is a wholly owned Irish subsidi- Safran Aircraft En- and South America. Song was man- ary of China Development Bank events and conferences CONNECT you with the highest gines. Bruneau was CEO of EPI GmbH aging vice president of passenger net- Financial Leasing. caliber audience in all market communities across the globe. 2 and of the AES GmbH joint venture works and sales. Aerojet Rocketdyne has hired Andreas ● of Safran Electronics & Defense and FlightSafety Textron Aviation Train- Wagner as chief human resources Largest series of MRO Events and Conferences MTU Aero Engines, which is devel- ing, a FlightSafety division established officer. Wagner was vice president of across the globe oping the powerplant for Europe’s in April 2019, has named Rich High as human resources for TE Connectivity. ● Future Combat Air System. CEO. He succeeds Brian Moore, who Tony Wood, Meggitt CEO and World’s leading aviation route development Alsalam Aerospace Industries has has been promoted to FlightSafety former president of Rolls-Royce events and forums named Karl E. Jeppesen acting presi- International senior vice president Aerospace, has been named president ● dent and CEO of the maintenance, re- of operations. Moore succeeds Dann of ADS, the UK aerospace and de- Leading producer of C-level aviation and pair and overhaul company. Jeppesen Runik, who has left the company. fense trade organization. He succeeds corporate travel summits had been supply chain vice president CAE has appointed Todd Probert Colin Smith. ● at Boeing Defense, Space and Security. group president of defense and securi- Trust Automation, a supplier of au- Leader in global executive, aerospace supplier The National Air Transportation ty. He succeeds Gene Colabatistto, who tomation technology for industrial and conferences Association has promoted Tim Obitts has retired. Probert led Raytheon’s defense applications, has hired Teddy to president/CEO from chief operating command, control, Ross as chief operations officer. officer. He succeeds space and intelli- Gary Dempsey, who gence business. HONORS AND ELECTIONS Stay Connected: has stepped down. Objectstream has The National Air and Space Museum Sheryl Bunton has hired Vaughn Turner achievement trophy has been re- been promoted to as senior vice presi- named The Michael Collins Trophy, in Gulfstream Aerospace dent of aerospace en- honor of Apollo 11’s command module Corp. senior vice gineering. The com- pilot. Its 2020 recipients are Charles president and chief pany supplies information technology Elachi, for lifetime achievement, and information officer (CIO) from CIO. and avionics equipment for aviation the Hubble Space Telescope Team, for Before Gulfstream, Bunton was world- and cybersecurity clients. Vaughn has current achievement. c wide CIO for AGCO Corp. and before that was CIO at Southwire Co. To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files (no The Vertical Flight Society has ap- PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on pointed James A. Viola president and companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence Learn more by visiting: CEO of Helicopter Association Inter- Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone national. Viola succeeds Matthew S. U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S. events.aviationweek.com

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FIRST

China is testing an intercontinen- The U.S. government may not renew TAKE tal-range hypersonic glide vehicle sim- General Electric’s export license to sup- For the latest, go to ilar to Russia’s deployed Avangard sys- ply CFM Leap-1C engines to Comac—a AVIATIONWEEK.COM tem, the U.S. Air Force said in written move that could further delay the Chi- testimony submitted to Congress. nese company’s C919 narrowbody pro- gram. DEFENSE France and Germany have awarded From March 19, the U.S. will raise already long-awaited contracts totaling €155 approved World Trade Organization million ($167 million) for the initial tariffs on imported European commer- demonstrator phase of the Future Com- cial aircraft to 15% from 10% as punish- bat Air System program, funding 18 ment for illegal subsidies. months of work led by primes Dassault and Airbus as well as their partners, Sa- PAKISTAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE Airbus is to cut A330 production by fran, MTU Aero Engines, MBDA and Pakistan announced on Feb. 18 it had about 20% in 2020—to 40 a year—and Thales (page 29). conducted a flight test of its indigenous- stabilize the A350 at 9 or 10 aircraft a ly developed 600-km (370-mi.)-range month, in an acknowledgment of weak The U.S. Air Force’s latest five-year bud- Ra’ad II air-launched cruise missile demand for widebody aircraft. get plan retires significant numbers of from a Dassault Mirage IIIE fighter. RQ-4s, B-1s, KC-10s and nonstealthy Boeing is inspecting all 737 MAXs in fighters and eliminates funding for B-2 COMMERCIAL AVIATION storage and adding factory-floor pre- modernization (page 48). Bombardier has sold its remaining stake cautions after discovering debris in in the A220 program to Airbus for $591 the fuel tanks of multiple MAXs during Lockheed Martin’s development of the million, completing its exit from com- routine maintenance on stored aircraft. Hypersonic Conventional Strike Weap- mercial aviation. Airbus now holds 75% on for the U.S. Air Force is to be ter - and the government of Quebec main- Italy’s second-largest airline, Air Italy, minated after delayed completion of a tains the other 25% (page 17). ceased operations Feb. 11 after majority critical design review in spring 2020. VIEW FROM WASHINGTON Pratt & Whitney is protesting a U.S. Air Force plan to award a sole-source contract to GE Aviation for F110 engines to power Sixth-Gen Sticker Shock a future fleet of Boeing F-15EX fighters. The U.S. Air Force’s acquisition chief is bracing for congressional Pratt produces the competing F100. backlash over a revamp of the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program that could drive up the average procurement unit cost (APUC) of a sixth-generation fighter. But the Air Force remains committed to an acquisition strategy for an F-22 replacement that accepts higher upfront costs so as to save money during the sustainment phase, Will Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force, said Feb. 18. “The APUC is what?” Roper expects Congress to ask. “And we’re

BOEING AUSTRALIA going to have to have a really good analysis to show that by operat- ing this way the total cost of ownership is better.” A Boeing-led Australian team has com- pleted the first major assembly for the The Air Force had planned to structure NGAD as a conventional Airpower Teaming System loyal-wing- procurement, in which a contractor typically loses money during man unmanned aircraft it is developing the design phase, breaks even during development and reaps prof- with the Royal Australian Air Force. its over an exclusive, multidecade sustainment period. Singapore is to collaborate with Airbus But Roper, appointed in 2017, said in early 2019 the strategy had on the development of automated aerial changed. The details are murky, but he has compared the new refueling capabilities for the A330 Multi- Role Tanker Transport, with its air force acquisition strategy to the iPhone business model—where Apple providing an aircraft for testing. makes its profit by charging a premium at the point of sale. The upfront cost is higher, but this incentivizes external software BAE Systems flew the first full-scale prototype PHASA-35 solar-powered developers to create applications for the iPhone at little or no cost high-altitude pseudo-satellite unmanned to Apple. In a similar way, Roper wants defense prime contractors aircraft system for the first time on Feb. to transition away from a sustainment model for profits. 10 at Woomera in Australia (page 28).

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FIRST China is testing an intercontinen- The U.S. government may not renew shareholder Alisarda decided it could Spirit AeroSystems to cooperate on de- Mixed Results for GA TAKE tal-range hypersonic glide vehicle sim- General Electric’s export license to sup- no longer carry the company’s increas- veloping an eVTOL aircraft. For the latest, go to ilar to Russia’s deployed Avangard sys- ply CFM Leap-1C engines to Comac—a ingly heavy losses. Piston Airplanes 16.4 AVIATIONWEEK.COM tem, the U.S. Air Force said in written move that could further delay the Chi- SPACE testimony submitted to Congress. nese company’s C919 narrowbody pro- President Donald Trump is requesting Turboprops 11.3 gram. $25.2 billion for NASA in fiscal 2021, and DEFENSE planning to spend $71 billion through Business Jets 15.1 France and Germany have awarded From March 19, the U.S. will raise already 2025, to fast-track a mission to land as- Piston Rotorcraft 36.3 long-awaited contracts totaling €155 approved World Trade Organization tronauts on the Moon in 2024 (page 54). million ($167 million) for the initial tariffs on imported European commer- Turbine Rotorcraft * 8.3 demonstrator phase of the Future Com- cial aircraft to 15% from 10% as punish- SpaceX has signed an agreement with *Leonardo* Leonardo Helicopters Helicopters fourth-quarter fourth-quarter deliveries not yet bat Air System program, funding 18 ment for illegal subsidies. AIRBUS Space Adventures, a Virginia-based available;deliveries 2018 not data yet adjusted available; to allow 2018 comparison. data months of work led by primes Dassault space travel company, to market a Crew adjusted to allow comparison. and Airbus as well as their partners, Sa- PAKISTAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE Airbus is to cut A330 production by Airbus is flight-testing a subscale, Dragon orbital spaceflight for four pri- fran, MTU Aero Engines, MBDA and Pakistan announced on Feb. 18 it had about 20% in 2020—to 40 a year—and 10.5-ft.-wingspan technology demon- vately paying passengers (page 15). Thales (page 29). conducted a flight test of its indigenous- stabilize the A350 at 9 or 10 aircraft a strator for a fuel-efficient blended wing/ Business jet deliveries in 2019 were ly developed 600-km (370-mi.)-range month, in an acknowledgment of weak body aircraft at an undisclosed location A SpaceX Falcon 9 lifted off on Feb. 17 at their highest since 2009, at 809 The U.S. Air Force’s latest five-year bud- Ra’ad II air-launched cruise missile demand for widebody aircraft. in central France (page 39). with a fifth batch of the company’s Star- aircraft, and the piston-aircraft market get plan retires significant numbers of from a Dassault Mirage IIIE fighter. link broadband satellites, boosting the experienced double-digit growth to RQ-4s, B-1s, KC-10s and nonstealthy Boeing is inspecting all 737 MAXs in Delta Air Lines plans to spend $1 billion growing constellation to 300 spacecraft a 10-year high, of 1,324 aircraft, but fighters and eliminates funding for B-2 COMMERCIAL AVIATION storage and adding factory-floor pre- over the next decade to reduce or elim- (page 34). turboprop and helicopter deliveries modernization (page 48). Bombardier has sold its remaining stake cautions after discovering debris in inate carbon emissions throughout its decreased year-over-year. in the A220 program to Airbus for $591 the fuel tanks of multiple MAXs during business, including improving fuel effi- NASA has awarded Rocket Lab a $10 Source: General Aviation Manufacturers Association Lockheed Martin’s development of the million, completing its exit from com- routine maintenance on stored aircraft. ciency and increasing its use of sustain- million contract to launch the 55-lb. Hypersonic Conventional Strike Weap- mercial aviation. Airbus now holds 75% able fuels. Capstone cislunar positioning cubesat on for the U.S. Air Force is to be ter - and the government of Quebec main- Italy’s second-largest airline, Air Italy, to the Moon on an Electron rocket from crewed orbital demonstration flight. minated after delayed completion of a tains the other 25% (page 17). ceased operations Feb. 11 after majority A new U.S. low-cost airline launched by NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility, Virginia, critical design review in spring 2020. former United Airlines executive An- in early 2021. Astroscale will launch a satellite in 2022 drew Levy has raised $125 million and to collect images of a rocket upper stage VIEW FROM WASHINGTON Pratt & Whitney is protesting a U.S. Air plans to start service by the end of the NASA and Boeing are reviewing all the under the first phase of a Japan Aero- Force plan to award a sole-source contract year with 189-seat Boeing 737-800s. CST-100 Starliner flight software—1 space Exploration Agency program to to GE Aviation for F110 engines to power Sixth-Gen Sticker Shock million lines of code—following errors demonstrate commercial space debris a future fleet of Boeing F-15EX fighters. The U.S. Air Force’s acquisition chief is bracing for congressional David Neeleman’s new U.S.-based airline found after the capsule’s troubled un- removal. c Pratt produces the competing F100. backlash over a revamp of the Next-Generation Air Dominance has been christened Breeze Airways and aims to be operating by the end of 2020 (NGAD) program that could drive up the average procurement using leased Embraer E195s. Deliveries 30 YEARS AGO IN AVIATION WEEK of Airbus A220s will begin in 2021. unit cost (APUC) of a sixth-generation fighter. Aviation Week & Space Technology Man- But the Air Force remains committed to an acquisition strategy scored a major GENERAL AVIATION aging Editor David M. North for an F-22 replacement that accepts higher upfront costs so as to Gulfstream’s largest and longest-range scoop in early 1990, becoming the first West- save money during the sustainment phase, Will Roper, assistant business jet, the G700, made its first ern pilot to fly the Soviet Union’s advanced secretary of the Air Force, said Feb. 18. flight Feb. 14 from Savannah/Hilton Mikoyan MiG-29 fighter. His eight-page pilot Head International Airport in Georgia. report from Kubinka Air Base outside Mos- “The APUC is what?” Roper expects Congress to ask. “And we’re Certification is planned for 2022. cow was featured on our cover of Feb. 26,

BOEING AUSTRALIA going to have to have a really good analysis to show that by operat- 1990. Originally told he would fly in the front ing this way the total cost of ownership is better.” cockpit, concerns about nasty weather rele- A Boeing-led Australian team has com- pleted the first major assembly for the The Air Force had planned to structure NGAD as a conventional gated North to the backseat behind Mikoy- Airpower Teaming System loyal-wing- procurement, in which a contractor typically loses money during an’s chief test pilot, Valery Menitsky. North man unmanned aircraft it is developing the design phase, breaks even during development and reaps prof- spoke no Russian and Menitsky’s English was with the Royal Australian Air Force. limited, prompting an unusually detailed pre- its over an exclusive, multidecade sustainment period. GULFSTREAM flight briefing with a translator. Comparing Singapore is to collaborate with Airbus But Roper, appointed in 2017, said in early 2019 the strategy had the aircraft’s analog cockpit to a late-1950s on the development of automated aerial changed. The details are murky, but he has compared the new Bell is to work with Japan Airlines and refueling capabilities for the A330 Multi- Sumitomo Corp. to explore on-demand F-4 Phantom II, North reported that the low- Role Tanker Transport, with its air force acquisition strategy to the iPhone business model—where Apple air mobility services in Japan using speed performance of the MiG-29 with its providing an aircraft for testing. makes its profit by charging a premium at the point of sale. Bell’s electric vertical-takeoff-and-land- wire-and-pulley and servo-hydraulic flight pilot, the MiG-29 was a lethal threat against The upfront cost is higher, but this incentivizes external software ing (eVTOL) APT cargo drone and Nex- control system “was comparable to that of comparable Western fighters. North later BAE Systems flew the first full-scale us air taxi. the F/A-18 with its fly-by-wire control sys- served as editor-in-chief of Aviation Week developers to create applications for the iPhone at little or no cost prototype PHASA-35 solar-powered tem.” His takeaway: In the hands of a skilled from 1995-2003. high-altitude pseudo-satellite unmanned to Apple. In a similar way, Roper wants defense prime contractors Urban air mobility startup Airspace aircraft system for the first time on Feb. to transition away from a sustainment model for profits. Exploration Technologies has signed Read every issue of Aviation Week back to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com 10 at Woomera in Australia (page 28). a memorandum of understanding with

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 11 COMMENTARY UP FRONT BYRON CALLAN

SOME OF THE MAIN TALKING somehow eliminated the risk of recession from a rapid points on the fiscal 2021 defense budget increase in interest rates, another energy shock, a pan- request and the plan that accompanies demic or a severe economic crisis in other parts of the it through 2025 are that it aligns resources with the world? Very likely not. National Defense Strategy and that this year’s budget Another questionable factor is the new budget and theme is about all-domain operations. The Pentagon plan’s interest-rate assumptions, as there was a big called out priorities to sustain readiness and prepare change from prior projections. The OMB and Congres- for future challenges with investment in hypersonics, sional Budget Office (CBO) do not disclose how they autonomous systems and artificial intelligence. Given a expect the composition of federal debt by debt maturity flat top line, the Defense Department had to make tough to change over forecast periods. They usually provide choices by making program cuts that have been well-doc- projections only on three-month Treasury bill interest umented and are well-covered by this publication. rates and on the 10-year Treasury note. The U.S. Trea- sury shows that as of Jan. 31, of the $17.2 trillion in feder- al debt held by the public, 14% was in Treasury bills with an average interest rate of 1.7%, and 58% was in notes Shaky Foundations with maturities of 2-10 years at an average rate of 2.1%. Questions underpin the Net interest outlays are a mix of the interest the fiscal 2021 defense budget federal government pays to public holders of that debt and the interest it pays to itself on debt held in federal trust funds. One way to think about the debt burden and the interest expense associated with it is to take the net interest outlay projections and divide them by the total debt the OMB or CBO estimates. One of the changes the OMB made in its budget pro- jections was to lower interest rate estimates. In recent years, these projections were too high compared to prevailing market levels, as the OMB and CBO both projected rates would return to “normal” levels. In the OMB’s mid-session review from this past summer, the implied interest rate (net interest outlays divided by to- tal debt) was 2.3% in 2019 and rose to 3.0% by 2022 and 3.3% by 2025. In the latest budget and plan, the implied rate is flat—at 2.1% in 2020, creeping up to 2.3% by 2025. This is another questionable factor that could weigh LIBRARY OF CONGRESS LIBRARY on the foundation of the defense spending plans. If The outlines of structural changes in how the Penta- rates do move to higher levels, then outlays will com- gon is preparing for the future are indeed visible in the pete with other forms of federal spending. If rates fall budget request and plan, but it is unrealistic to expect further than projected, it may be due to a far weaker this budget to have completely framed out all that will economy, which in turn weighs on federal deficits. be done. Increases in research, development, test and A final questionable factor is the deficit projections evaluation (RDT&E) spending both in absolute terms themselves. The Trump administration again plans re- and compared to last year’s plan for 2021-24 under- ductions in non-defense discretionary spending, which score shifts that are underway. It may take at least 2-3 Congress has not supported in the last three budget more years to see how some of these RDT&E efforts requests. The share of non-defense discretionary out- translate into new programs and will inform how the lays as a percent of total outlays drops to 12% in 2024 U.S. will fight in future conflicts. from 15% in 2019. Much as defense contractor management, analysts For defense contractor management, planners, an- and planners will focus on the details in the defense alysts and investors, foundations on which the budget budget, it is important also to factor in some of the as- plans are based imply that the structural and program- sumptions that underpin the budget—the foundation matic changes in the 2021 budget could be accelerated upon which it rests. Here there are questions worth if deficits and interest rates are higher than the plan considering. presumes. Like a high-rise building built to code in an The first is the real GDP forecast for 2021-29. The earthquake zone, the Pentagon’s structural and spend- Office of Management and Budget (OMB) forecast ing changes may make defense better able to withstand depends on stable 3% annual real growth every year, future macroeconomic tremors and shifts. c which is well above consensus estimates. The U.S. is now in its longest economic expansion ever. Can this Contributing columnist Byron Callan is a director at Capital be extended into 2021 or beyond? Possibly. Has the U.S. Alpha Partners.

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY COMMENTARY UP FRONT GOING CONCERNS BYRON CALLAN MICHAEL BRUNO

SOME OF THE MAIN TALKING somehow eliminated the risk of recession from a rapid THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS ated almost $5.7 billion in potential fi scal 2021 reduc- points on the fiscal 2021 defense budget increase in interest rates, another energy shock, a pan- requesting “fl at” defense spending for tions, $200 million in working-capital fund ež ciencies, request and the plan that accompanies demic or a severe economic crisis in other parts of the fiscal 2021 of about $740 billion, with and another $2.1 billion in activities and functions it through 2025 are that it aligns resources with the world? Very likely not. combined procurement, research, devel- realigned to the armed services. Elaine McCusker, National Defense Strategy and that this year’s budget Another questionable factor is the new budget and opment, testing and experimentation (RDT&E) total- deputy undersecretary of defense and comptroller, theme is about all-domain operations. The Pentagon plan’s interest-rate assumptions, as there was a big ing about $244 billion—$4 billion below the current says savings were derived from proposed cutbacks called out priorities to sustain readiness and prepare change from prior projections. The OMB and Congres- fi scal 2020 fi gure. at defense medical facilities, as well as from disman- for future challenges with investment in hypersonics, sional Budget Office (CBO) do not disclose how they Industry, however, has few worries. For starters, tling nonstatutory commissions or boards of advisors, autonomous systems and artificial intelligence. Given a expect the composition of federal debt by debt maturity no one in Washington really takes this budget request among other changes. flat top line, the Defense Department had to make tough to change over forecast periods. They usually provide seriously. While law- To the administra- choices by making program cuts that have been well-doc- projections only on three-month Treasury bill interest makers always declare tion’s credit, the budget umented and are well-covered by this publication. rates and on the 10-year Treasury note. The U.S. Trea- the president’s request A Defense Budget request calls for an in- sury shows that as of Jan. 31, of the $17.2 trillion in feder- dead on arrival on the crease in several R&D al debt held by the public, 14% was in Treasury bills with Hill, this year there was e› orts at the expense of an average interest rate of 1.7%, and 58% was in notes more than the usual dis- To Forget procurement volumes. Shaky Foundations with maturities of 2-10 years at an average rate of 2.1%. missal by a rival branch But these are “paid for” Questions underpin the Net interest outlays are a mix of the interest the of government. by cutting production fiscal 2021 defense budget federal government pays to public holders of that debt For one thing, the ad- requests for established and the interest it pays to itself on debt held in federal ministration’s blueprint programs such as air- trust funds. One way to think about the debt burden relies on an above-aver- craft and missiles, and if and the interest expense associated with it is to take age amount of gimmick- anything, Congress has a the net interest outlay projections and divide them by ry known as “Washing- solid history of adding to the total debt the OMB or CBO estimates. ton Monumenting,” the procurement of long-run- One of the changes the OMB made in its budget pro- inside-the-Beltway term ning manufacturing pro- jections was to lower interest rate estimates. In recent for suggested cuts to pro- grams. Also, proposals years, these projections were too high compared to grams that Congress will such as closing medical prevailing market levels, as the OMB and CBO both never go along with, such facilities do not sit well projected rates would return to “normal” levels. In the as closing the Washington in communities with sig- OMB’s mid-session review from this past summer, the Monument—or in this Blueprint relies on nifi cant populations of implied interest rate (net interest outlays divided by to- case, fl atlining Lockheed veterans. tal debt) was 2.3% in 2019 and rose to 3.0% by 2022 and Martin F-35 procurement an above-average To be sure, there will 3.3% by 2025. In the latest budget and plan, the implied or cutting the spending amount of be changes to defense rate is flat—at 2.1% in 2020, creeping up to 2.3% by 2025. on naval warship-building gimmickry programs, but as ana- This is another questionable factor that could weigh by roughly 20%, as Pres- lysts at JP Morgan note, LIBRARY OF CONGRESS LIBRARY on the foundation of the defense spending plans. If ident Donald Trump has it does not mean con- The outlines of structural changes in how the Penta- rates do move to higher levels, then outlays will com- proposed. SENIOR AIRAN ALEANER COOS AIR FORCE tractors will be a› ected. gon is preparing for the future are indeed visible in the pete with other forms of federal spending. If rates fall “Though weapons spending is collectively down in “It could be hard to map the impact of these cuts to budget request and plan, but it is unrealistic to expect further than projected, it may be due to a far weaker fi scal 2021 versus fi scal 2020—and versus the level in the particular contractors though, and some companies this budget to have completely framed out all that will economy, which in turn weighs on federal deficits. fi scal 2020 presidential request, and a touch lighter than are also deploying capital to mergers and acquisitions be done. Increases in research, development, test and A final questionable factor is the deficit projections we were expecting—we see plus-ups to the weapons ac- that can mitigate the impact of budget-slowing,” the evaluation (RDT&E) spending both in absolute terms themselves. The Trump administration again plans re- counts likely,” analysts at UBS say. As the budget winds analysts say. and compared to last year’s plan for 2021-24 under- ductions in non-defense discretionary spending, which its way through Congress this year, they predict $4-5 Over the past decade the defense industry lobbied score shifts that are underway. It may take at least 2-3 Congress has not supported in the last three budget billion will be added to RDT&E, likely from o› -budget for and received time to make changes to business more years to see how some of these RDT&E efforts requests. The share of non-defense discretionary out- war-spending accounts, much like the process followed portfolios so companies could select which parts of translate into new programs and will inform how the lays as a percent of total outlays drops to 12% in 2024 for this fi scal year. the new National Defense Strategy they wanted to U.S. will fight in future conflicts. from 15% in 2019. “We see no chance of the proposed budget passing pursue. In turn, most of the weapons-producing land- Much as defense contractor management, analysts For defense contractor management, planners, an- in its current form,” Credit Suisse analysts say. scape already comes down to duopolies or small num- and planners will focus on the details in the defense alysts and investors, foundations on which the budget Second, even Defense Secretary Mark Esper all but bers of providers such as the main warship builders, budget, it is important also to factor in some of the as- plans are based imply that the structural and program- said this budget request was a one-time election-year General Dynamics and Huntington Ingalls, or the pri- sumptions that underpin the budget—the foundation matic changes in the 2021 budget could be accelerated gambit. To be sure, what he volunteered in a speech mary fi ghter suppliers, Lockheed Martin and Boeing. upon which it rests. Here there are questions worth if deficits and interest rates are higher than the plan just days before the ož cial budget release was that Each of the primes believes it has largely shaped its considering. presumes. Like a high-rise building built to code in an the Pentagon’s plan requires 3-5% in annual growth business to rely on programs with entrenched, long- The first is the real GDP forecast for 2021-29. The earthquake zone, the Pentagon’s structural and spend- above infl ation just to keep up with its own blueprint. term acquisitions where competition is nonexistent Office of Management and Budget (OMB) forecast ing changes may make defense better able to withstand Esper said he hopes Washington will return to that or barriers to entry are so high they are insulated. depends on stable 3% annual real growth every year, future macroeconomic tremors and shifts. c practice. “As tends to be the case, we expect every major U.S. which is well above consensus estimates. The U.S. is Last fall, Esper initiated a department-wide review defense company to say that its programs have done now in its longest economic expansion ever. Can this Contributing columnist Byron Callan is a director at Capital of potential savings in the so-called Fourth Estate of well in the request, and have good support in Con- be extended into 2021 or beyond? Possibly. Has the U.S. Alpha Partners. the Pentagon, the nonmilitary agencies, which gener- gress,” analysts at Vertical Research Partners say. c

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 1 COMMENTARY LEADING EDGE GRAHAM WARWICK

AS AN AGENCY CHARTERED WITH engagement range,” says DARPA, suggesting it could both preventing and creating surprises, allow aircraft to provide air cover for ground forc- DARPA is guaranteed to raise an eye - es while staying outside the reach of air defenses. brow with its annual budget requests. “LongShot will explore new engagement concepts for Past ideas floated by the Pentagon’s advanced research multi-modal, multi-kill systems that can engage more projects agency have ranged from flying submarines to than one target,” says DARPA. satellites that assemble themselves on orbit. The Gunslinger project will demonstrate a tacti- And, being DARPA, the more outlandish the pro- cal-range weapon that combines the maneuverability gram, the cooler its name. of a missile with the ability of a gun to selectively engage Two that stand out in the agency’s $3.57 billion fiscal different target types. DARPA is looking for a weapon 2021 budget request: LongShot, a long-range weapon concept with the aerodynamic, propulsion and payload that launches from its host aircraft carrying air-to- capacity to enable a wide operational envelope so it can air missiles to engage be launched to transit, loi- multiple targets at close ter and engage ground or range; and Gunslinger, a The Next Warthog? air targets. gun-armed tactical mis- While the programs sile for close air support, Gun-armed, close-support missiles among sound similar in con- counterinsurgency and DARPA’s new projects cept to loyal wingman air-to-air combat. unmanned aircraft that DARPA’s objective is would team with manned to look beyond what the platforms to extend their military services think sensor and weapons they want to what they reach and increase sur- might need in 10-15 years’ vivability, both LongShot time. Technologies it de- and Gunslinger have the velops are intended to flavor of more-automated transition to the services, missile systems. DARPA but they often drop from describes Gunslinger as sight only to reappear having “algorithms that years later in a different support maneuvering and guise. DARPA’s 2004-05 target recognition to en- Grand Challenge has yet U.S. AIR FORCE able expedited command to result in fleets of driverless military vehicles, but the decision-making for selecting and engaging targets.” competition was the genesis of the entire self-driving Other new projects in DARPA’s 2021 plans include car industry. Portable Optical Integrated Network Transceiv- The agency does not hesitate to end projects early ers (POINT) and Resilient Networked Distributed if it wants to move on. And it happily revisits ideas Multi-Transceiver Communications (RNDMC—think that did not work last time around unencumbered by hip hop group Run-DMC). Both relate to means of en- any stigma of past failure. All of this means there is no abling forces to communicate in electromagnetically guarantee that a DARPA idea will become reality. contested environments. But if the new programs planned for 2021 have a POINT will leverage recent developments in optical theme, it is how to operate in a highly contested en- phased-array transmitters to develop small photonic vironment—how to provide the air cover, ground sup- transceivers with no moving parts, dramatically re- port and connectivity U.S. forces have come to rely on ducing their size, weight and power so they can fit on in the face of integrated air defenses. mobile platforms and microsatellites and provide ro- LongShot appears to be a follow-on to the Flying bust free-space optical links at up to 1 Gbps. Missile Rail concept revealed by DARPA in 2017. This RNDMC aims to provide beyond-line-of-sight tacti- was a device carrying a pair of AIM-120 air-to-air mis- cal communications in highly contested environments siles that could remain under the wing of an F-16 or by developing low-cost expendable, synchronized re- F/A-18 or fly away from the host aircraft, acting as a peaters that can be hosted on ground platforms, hand- booster to extend the range of the missiles. launched UAVs, high-altitude platforms and low-cost Carried externally on fighters or internally in bomb- satellites in low Earth orbit. ers, LongShot will use a slower-speed, longer-range With its recent focus on hypersonic strike weapons air vehicle for transit to the engagement zone, where nearing fruition, DARPA’s 2021 budget request shows it will launch multiple air-to-air missiles closer to its it is not easing off on its singular quest to anticipate targets, reducing their reaction time and increasing the U.S. military’s possible future needs—however end-game maneuverability and kill probability. surprising a missile equivalent to the gun-toting A-10 “Multi-mode propulsion will significantly increase Warthog might sound. c

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY COMMENTARY LEADING EDGE THE LAUNCHPAD GRAHAM WARWICK IRENE KLOTZ

AS AN AGENCY CHARTERED WITH engagement range,” says DARPA, suggesting it could IN AN UNCHARACTERISTIC MOVE, private spacefl ight services. both preventing and creating surprises, allow aircraft to provide air cover for ground forc- SpaceX has signed a partnering agree- “SpaceX is not the small startup it once was,” says DARPA is guaranteed to raise an eye - es while staying outside the reach of air defenses. ment with an experienced space travel Eric Stallmer, president of the Commercial Space- brow with its annual budget requests. “LongShot will explore new engagement concepts for company to sell a Crew Dragon orbital fl ight Federation, a Washington-based industry advo- Past ideas floated by the Pentagon’s advanced research multi-modal, multi-kill systems that can engage more fl ight for four fare-paying passengers. cacy organization. “I think they want to be competi- projects agency have ranged from flying submarines to than one target,” says DARPA. Under the arrangement, announced on Feb. 18, tive—especially in the space tourism market—so I’m satellites that assemble themselves on orbit. The Gunslinger project will demonstrate a tacti- Vienna, Virginia-based Space Adventures will market not surprised they would go out with a trusted name And, being DARPA, the more outlandish the pro- cal-range weapon that combines the maneuverability a high-altitude, free-fl ying orbital voyage lasting 3-5 like Space Adventures, which has a proven track re- gram, the cooler its name. of a missile with the ability of a gun to selectively engage days aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule. cord in providing spacefl ight services.” Two that stand out in the agency’s $3.57 billion fiscal different target types. DARPA is looking for a weapon Terms of the contract and fl ight costs were not dis- In a statement, SpaceX President and Chief Operat- 2021 budget request: LongShot, a long-range weapon concept with the aerodynamic, propulsion and payload closed, but the price per seat is expected to be about ing O– cer Gwynne Shotwell adds, “This historic mis- that launches from its host aircraft carrying air-to- capacity to enable a wide operational envelope so it can $50 million. sion will forge a path to making spacefl ight possible air missiles to engage be launched to transit, loi- Following launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, for all people who dream of it. We are pleased to work multiple targets at close ter and engage ground or the capsule would orbit at an altitude of 621-746 mi. with the Space Adventures team.” range; and Gunslinger, a The Next Warthog? air targets. (1,000-1,200 km)—roughly 2-3 times higher than the Privately owned Space Adventures also has an gun-armed tactical mis- While the programs International Space Station (ISS), which circles about agreement with Boeing to market seats aboard up- sile for close air support, Gun-armed, close-support missiles among sound similar in con- 262 mi. above Earth. coming CST-100 Starliner missions to the ISS. Star- counterinsurgency and DARPA’s new projects cept to loyal wingman ASA air-to-air combat. unmanned aircraft that DARPA’s objective is would team with manned to look beyond what the platforms to extend their military services think sensor and weapons Beyond they want to what they reach and increase sur- might need in 10-15 years’ vivability, both LongShot NASA time. Technologies it de- and Gunslinger have the velops are intended to flavor of more-automated SpaceX tests waters transition to the services, missile systems. DARPA for space tourism mission but they often drop from describes Gunslinger as sight only to reappear having “algorithms that years later in a different support maneuvering and guise. DARPA’s 2004-05 target recognition to en- Grand Challenge has yet U.S. AIR FORCE able expedited command OO CREI to result in fleets of driverless military vehicles, but the decision-making for selecting and engaging targets.” competition was the genesis of the entire self-driving Other new projects in DARPA’s 2021 plans include car industry. Portable Optical Integrated Network Transceiv- The agency does not hesitate to end projects early ers (POINT) and Resilient Networked Distributed if it wants to move on. And it happily revisits ideas Multi-Transceiver Communications (RNDMC—think that did not work last time around unencumbered by hip hop group Run-DMC). Both relate to means of en- any stigma of past failure. All of this means there is no abling forces to communicate in electromagnetically guarantee that a DARPA idea will become reality. contested environments. “We’d like to break the altitude record for a private liner has a fi fth seat available that could be sold to a But if the new programs planned for 2021 have a POINT will leverage recent developments in optical citizen orbital fl ight, which shouldn’t be too di– cult,” paying passenger, who would accompany four station theme, it is how to operate in a highly contested en- phased-array transmitters to develop small photonic Space Adventures Chairman Eric Anderson tells Avi- crewmembers on NASA-purchased rides to and from vironment—how to provide the air cover, ground sup- transceivers with no moving parts, dramatically re- ation Week. “This would be the highest-altitude orbit- the orbital outpost. port and connectivity U.S. forces have come to rely on ducing their size, weight and power so they can fit on al fl ight since Gemini 11, which I think is really cool.” NASA has contracts totaling as much as $7 billion in the face of integrated air defenses. mobile platforms and microsatellites and provide ro- The mission could take place in late 2021 or early for SpaceX and Boeing to design, build, test and op- LongShot appears to be a follow-on to the Flying bust free-space optical links at up to 1 Gbps. 2022, he adds. erate commercial space-taxi services to the ISS. The Missile Rail concept revealed by DARPA in 2017. This RNDMC aims to provide beyond-line-of-sight tacti- The partnering agreement is a shift for SpaceX, contracts, awarded in 2014 under NASA’s Commer- was a device carrying a pair of AIM-120 air-to-air mis- cal communications in highly contested environments which handles most of its spacecraft manufacturing, cial Crew Program, cover up to six operational mis- siles that could remain under the wing of an F-16 or by developing low-cost expendable, synchronized re- testing and fl ight service business in-house, includ- sions, each of which would carry four astronauts to F/A-18 or fly away from the host aircraft, acting as a peaters that can be hosted on ground platforms, hand- ing even the design and production of spacesuits. and from the ISS. booster to extend the range of the missiles. launched UAVs, high-altitude platforms and low-cost SpaceX in 2018 announced it had sold a chartered SpaceX is preparing for its fi nal Crew Dragon fl ight Carried externally on fighters or internally in bomb- satellites in low Earth orbit. fl ight around the Moon aboard its planned Starship test this spring, a mission that will be the company’s ers, LongShot will use a slower-speed, longer-range With its recent focus on hypersonic strike weapons deep-space transportation system to Japanese bil- fi rst with people aboard and the fi rst human orbital air vehicle for transit to the engagement zone, where nearing fruition, DARPA’s 2021 budget request shows lionaire Yusaku Maezawa. spacefl ight aboard a U.S. vehicle since the fi nal space it will launch multiple air-to-air missiles closer to its it is not easing off on its singular quest to anticipate The agreement with Space Adventures, which pre- shuttle mission in 2011. targets, reducing their reaction time and increasing the U.S. military’s possible future needs—however viously brokered eight privately fi nanced missions to Boeing’s Starliner program is under review follow- end-game maneuverability and kill probability. surprising a missile equivalent to the gun-toting A-10 the ISS aboard Russian Soyuz spacecraft, could give ing software problems discovered during an uncrewed “Multi-mode propulsion will significantly increase Warthog might sound. c SpaceX a running start in the emerging market for fl ight test in December. c

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 1 COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Bombardier narrows focus p. 17 MAX’s long restart path p. 19 New MAX simulator training p. 20 Chinese airlines and COVID-19 p. 22 Hope for more Chinese widebody orders p. 23 Aircraft retirements on the rise p. 24 HEAD-TO-HEAD

Boeing’s revised NMA strategy appears to have xed the A321XLR rmly in its sights.

> BOEING’S REVISED NMA DESIGN > THE FOCUS HAS NARROWED WOULD BUILD ON PREVIOUS TO COUNTERING THE NMA TECHNOLOGY LONGRANGE A321

Guy Norris and Jens Flottau Singapore

hen Boeing announced its surprise decision to start if it still makes sense to have exactly this concept.” afresh with design studies for the new midmarket He says Boeing has “learned a airplane (NMA), the obvious question was: Where lot” from the NMA study—including will the company refocus its e† orts? both market expectations on operat- W ing costs and pricing, as well as how to develop a new production system Now, just a few weeks into 2020, the 757. However, Mounir’s comments targeted at making twin-aisle designs the answer may be emerging. Instead suggest the prime focus may be shift- for single-aisle manufacturing costs. of launching a new NMA family to ing to settle primarily on the 200- “That’s going to allow me to do things take on the broader 757/767 replace- 240-seat, 4,700-nm-range category I haven’t been able to in the past,” says ment market, Boeing is leaning to- of the new Airbus. Launched in 2019, Mounir. “So now if I take that input ward a design optimized to compete the A321XLR will be delivered start- and look at the production system ma- more directly with the long-range ing in 2023 and has already received turity, what can I come up with? Is it Airbus A321XLR. 450 orders, including contracts from the same NMA I could do before, or is O† ering the fi rst new clues to where both American Airlines and United there something else I could do? product development e† orts may refo- Airlines. “The beauty of it is we haven’t cus in the wake of the company’s deci- Provisionally targeted at service launched anything, so you can al- sion to go back to the drawing board entry in 2025, the NMA grew out of ways refine the concept and figure on the NMA, Boeing Commercial Sales 757-replacement studies and over out what the right aircraft is for the and Marketing Senior Vice President the past fi ve years was expanded to marketplace,” says Mounir. “The Ihssane Mounir says: “We are learning include a successor to the 767. The product development team will re- what the [A321]XLR is doing or not. So program was focused on two main ver- direct their e† orts to look at a fresh that also gives you a good idea of what sions, the 225-seat NMA-6X and 275- concept and internalize all we have the market may want.” seat NMA-7X, with the larger of the learned through the exercises we Since Boeing CEO David Calhoun pair expected to be developed fi rst. have had with customers, but I can revealed in January that the “NMA “With NMA, we never crossed the tell you we are not fl ogging anything project is going to be a new clean line with customers in terms of ‘this that we are discussing with custom- sheet of paper,” there has been spec- is perfect for me,’” Mounir says. “It is ers right now.” ulation the e† ort may be redirected to frankly something we looked at two The move, if confi rmed, also raises cover a new airliner family that could years ago, and when you look at the questions about Boeing’s longer-term cover the present 737 MAX as well as market today, you have to re-address replacement strategy for the 737 MAX

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Bombardier narrows focus p. 17 MAX’s long restart path p. 19 New MAX simulator training p. 20 Chinese airlines and COVID-19 p. 22 Hope for more Chinese widebody orders p. 23 Aircraft retirements on the rise p. 24 AIRBUS and how this might be influenced by Schreyoegg believes that the time- mid-2020s target date of the original the development of a new aircraft frame may still be “too tight” for Rolls- NMA project, engine manufacturers sized to compete more directly with Royce to reenter the competition with will also have more time for technol- the A321XLR. As Boeing convention- its first large geared engine design. ogy development. “We can use more HEAD-TO-HEAD ally develops families of aircraft, a But MTU, which is partnered with advanced materials for higher tem- downward shift in size for any new 757 Pratt & Whitney on the geared fan peratures,” Schreyoegg says. “Every successor aircraft would likely entail (GTF), believes the shift in timeline [additional] year is helpful.” c development of a smaller stablemate “opens up an opportunity for a GTF that would encroach on the upper end architecture,” says Schreyoegg. “It is of the current 737 range. the right architecture,” he says. Check 6 Aviation Week Editors discuss Another key question is whether With the aircraft now likely to events at the Singapore Airshow: the revised approach will stay with the arrive several years later than the AviationWeek.com/podcast twin-aisle configuration at the heart of the NMA concept. If it does, the de- cision to recalibrate around the size of the A321XLR may enable Boeing to Bombardier Flies Into Uncertain revive earlier concepts for codevelop- Boeing’s revised NMA strategy appears to ment of a smaller single-aisle deriv- Future as Business Aviation Specialist have xed the A321XLR rmly in its sights. ative sharing common avionics, sys- tems and other features—much as the ASSET SALES WILL LEAVE IT AS A BUSINESS AVIATION PROVIDER manufacturer did 40 years ago with > the 757/767 programs. > AIRBUS CONSOLIDATES ITS CONTROL OVER THE A220, Mounir also scotches specula- WITH FURTHER GROWTH PREDICTED > BOEING’S REVISED NMA DESIGN > THE FOCUS HAS NARROWED tion that Boeing could dust off its WOULD BUILD ON PREVIOUS TO COUNTERING THE long-abandoned 787-3 derivative as a Michael Bruno Washington, Jens Flottau Frankfurt NMA TECHNOLOGY LONGRANGE A321 potential replacement for the larger and Molly McMillin Wichita NMA market sector. “The key to the NMA is the production system—and o generations of aerospace work- analysts. “Currently, we think the eq- the production system around 787 ers and pilots, Bombardier was uity market perceives bizjets as facing Guy Norris and Jens Flottau Singapore produces true long-haul capability Talways known as a scrappy busi- structural challenges and as unappeal- with a certain rate and a certain yield. ness aviation OEM, even though the ing from a growth perspective.” hen Boeing announced its surprise decision to start if it still makes sense to have exactly You have got to be able to match yield Canadian industrial stalwart did more Bombardier had been in talks with this concept.” to pricing, and so if a 787-3 is produced annual business in train-related manu- Cessna-maker Textron Aviation over afresh with design studies for the new midmarket He says Boeing has “learned a within the same system, I just don’t facturing and its origin dates back 83 the sale of Bombardier Aviation’s busi- airplane (NMA), the obvious question was: Where lot” from the NMA study—including see how you could do that . . . from a years as the first snowmobile-maker. ness jet division. But those are widely will the company refocus its e† orts? both market expectations on operat- yield standpoint.” But assuming several recently an- expected to be shelved if the Alstom W ing costs and pricing, as well as how Although Boeing has yet to brief nounced deals close, Bombardier will deal goes through, several analysts to develop a new production system key suppliers such as engine-makers only be known as a business jet (bizjet) say. At the same time, Bombardier Now, just a few weeks into 2020, the 757. However, Mounir’s comments targeted at making twin-aisle designs about the new design direction, some provider—and yet its future may be no leaders are embracing their coming the answer may be emerging. Instead suggest the prime focus may be shift- for single-aisle manufacturing costs. manufacturers already agree the pivot less uncertain. specialty as a business jet-maker and of launching a new NMA family to ing to settle primarily on the 200- “That’s going to allow me to do things toward an A321-size alternate makes On Feb. 17, Bombardier announced aftermarket provider, contending the take on the broader 757/767 replace- 240-seat, 4,700-nm-range category I haven’t been able to in the past,” says sense. MTU Aero Engines Chief Pro- an agreement to sell its rail-car-based embattled company now will be on ment market, Boeing is leaning to- of the new Airbus. Launched in 2019, Mounir. “So now if I take that input gram Officer Michael Schreyoegg says Bombardier Transportation to Alstom solid financial footing and a leading ward a design optimized to compete the A321XLR will be delivered start- and look at the production system ma- he “would not be surprised if Boeing of France in a deal that is expected to player in the business aviation sector. more directly with the long-range ing in 2023 and has already received turity, what can I come up with? Is it came up with something similar to close in the first half of 2021 and net “Going forward, we will focus all Airbus A321XLR. 450 orders, including contracts from the same NMA I could do before, or is the Airbus A321XLR; they have to do Bombardier $4.2-4.5 billion. Four days our capital, energy and resources on O† ering the fi rst new clues to where both American Airlines and United there something else I could do? something in that space.” The NMA earlier, Bombardier announced it had accelerating growth and driving mar- product development e† orts may refo- Airlines. “The beauty of it is we haven’t could therefore turn out to be “smaller sold its remaining stake in the Airbus gin expansion in our market-leading cus in the wake of the company’s deci- Provisionally targeted at service launched anything, so you can al- than originally planned,” he says. A220, the former Bombardier C Se- $7 billion business-aircraft franchise,” sion to go back to the drawing board entry in 2025, the NMA grew out of ways refine the concept and figure The revised new aircraft concept ries, for $550 million. Besides cash at Bombardier CEO and President Alain on the NMA, Boeing Commercial Sales 757-replacement studies and over out what the right aircraft is for the also opens up interesting options for closing, in both cases Bombardier gets Bellemare says. and Marketing Senior Vice President the past fi ve years was expanded to marketplace,” says Mounir. “The the engine manufacturers, including relieved of future or external obliga- “We’re just coming out of a massive Ihssane Mounir says: “We are learning include a successor to the 767. The product development team will re- potentially reopening the door to tions that have been haunting it, such investment cycle, and we feel today what the [A321]XLR is doing or not. So program was focused on two main ver- direct their e† orts to look at a fresh Rolls-Royce, which dropped out of as $700 million in no-longer-required that we have the best product portfolio that also gives you a good idea of what sions, the 225-seat NMA-6X and 275- concept and internalize all we have the NMA race a year ago after citing payments to Airbus or retirement of in the industry,” the Bombardier CEO the market may want.” seat NMA-7X, with the larger of the learned through the exercises we concerns about its ability to meet Boe- the Caisse de depot et placement du continues. “Our Global family is strong, Since Boeing CEO David Calhoun pair expected to be developed fi rst. have had with customers, but I can ing’s original development schedule Quebec (CDPQ) convertible instru- actually No. 1, and our Challenger 350 revealed in January that the “NMA “With NMA, we never crossed the tell you we are not fl ogging anything with a version of the new UltraFan ment for $2.1-2.3 billion. and 650 are still best-selling in their project is going to be a new clean line with customers in terms of ‘this that we are discussing with custom- engine. “We are open-minded and “Following this transaction, Bom- class. So when we look at this right sheet of paper,” there has been spec- is perfect for me,’” Mounir says. “It is ers right now.” will stay open-minded when we know bardier will be the only major pure now, we feel very good about where ulation the e† ort may be redirected to frankly something we looked at two The move, if confi rmed, also raises what Boeing plans to do,” Rolls-Royce play in the bizjet end-market, and we we are. We have a very large installed cover a new airliner family that could years ago, and when you look at the questions about Boeing’s longer-term President Chris Cholerton said at the are curious to see how the financial base, and we’ve spent a lot of money cover the present 737 MAX as well as market today, you have to re-address replacement strategy for the 737 MAX Singapore Airshow. markets receive this,” say JP Morgan expanding our customer support net-

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 17 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

work, and we will continue to grow our constructive on the biz jet market due Equally important, Airbus is free to aftermarket business moving forward.” to soft demand, Bombardier is well-po- consider investing further in the A220. Analysts on a teleconference with sitioned across the subsegments, par- Among others, Airbus is in talks with Bombardier managers congratulated ticularly so in the most profitable large Breeze Airways CEO David Neeleman them for reaching the train deal with cabin segment where it only competes about a substantial increase in range Alstom and CDPQ. Still, the Bom- with Gulfstream,” Credit Suisse ana- for the aircraft, to more than 4,000 nm, bardier Transportation and A220 lysts agree. “Over time, we would ex- which would make U.S. transcontinen- sales leave Bombardier focused on an pect excess bizjet capacity to be ab- tal and transatlantic missions possi- industry that many observers have sorbed, which should enable demand ble. What is more, airlines such as Air almost wished aloud it were not in, to improve for new jets, which should France-KLM have been lobbying Airbus considering the sector’s mixed perfor- be supportive of Bombardier Aviation to build an A220-500, a stretched ver- mance in recent years and the widely over the long term.” sion of the -300 that would compete held belief that the industry is due for The Alstom deal is slated to close with the Boeing 737-8 and its own consolidation with too many OEMs in the first half of 2021, assuming it A320neo. It would offer, analysts be- still competing. gains regulatory approval—no fait lieve, substantially lower unit costs.

“The market hasn’t been growing BOMBARDIER and is hampered by having 40 models of business jets competing for those The Global 7500 will be the leading finite sales,” says Brian Foley, a con- growth driver at Bombardier as a sultant with Brian Foley Associates. standalone business aviation OEM. Indeed, while many consultants and analysts saw Textron as the only logical buyer of Bombardier Aviation, Wall Street was not enthusiastic about Textron doubling down on the indus- try. A few observers have speculated that even as a standalone business avi- ation company, Bombardier may even- tually merge, but only after its publicly traded share price falls or more costs are taken out. Bellemare says changes will occur at Bombardier Aviation in preparation for business jets being the sole focus, with “opportunities to optimize cost and flexibility.” But overall, Bombar- accompli in Europe, as antitrust con- Airbus Chief Commercial Officer dier as a business aviation company cerns doomed an earlier train tie-up of Christian Scherer says such an aircraft should be a cash generator moving Alstom and Siemens. But Bombardier was “not a question of if, but when.” forward. It will count the largest such executives and financial analysts see The A220 is hugely important for backlog in the industry at $14.4 billion the Bombardier-Alstom deal faring Airbus because it enables the OEM to at the end of 2019, $1 billion more than better, as their products are more position an A320neo-family replace- rival Gulfstream of General Dynamics. complementary and there are growing ment upmarket, beginning at 180-200 Bombardier’s product portfolio in- concerns about having enough indus- seats, while still being able to offer an cludes the lauded Global 7500 among trial heft to compete with China. By up-to-date product at the lower end of others, which Bombardier managers comparison, the A220 sale to Airbus the narrowbody market. think could get produced at a rate of closed immediately after Canadian As part of the deal, Quebec will mid-30s per year and already has a and Quebec officials secured their stick to its shareholding in Airbus backlog “well into” 2023. government interests. Canada for three years longer than ini- Bombardier could provide more in- For its part, Airbus now not only tially planned and remain a part-own- sight when it reports financial results has access to a massive strategic as- er until at least 2026. Its shares are for the first quarter on May 7. Mean- set in the single-aisle business, but it then “redeemable by Airbus,” giving while, analysts agree it has a fighting also no longer is held back by Bombar- it the option for full control. Details chance due to lower corporate debt, dier’s financial constraints. Airbus has and conditions of that arrangement increasing cash flow and Bellemare’s collected 658 orders for the A220-100 are confidential. better reputation in managing busi- and -300 and is in the process of ramp- Also, Bombardier is selling its A220 ness aviation versus trains. “As the ing up production. In addition to the and A330 work-package production to sector’s premier bizjet with its four original final assembly facility in Mira- Airbus subsidiary Stelia Aerospace, fuselage sections, Bombardier’s Global bel, Quebec, Airbus also is in the pro- which includes the A220 cockpit and 7500 backlog likely is well-priced; and cess of setting up another A220 line in rear fuselage. c its cash profitability should improve Mobile, Alabama, to deliver the first nicely as it moves down the learning aircraft to Delta Air Lines later this Check 6 Aviation Week editors discuss curve,” say Cowen analysts. year. Mobile is to produce four aircraft what’s next for Bombardier in the crowded “While we are not currently highly per month when it is in full swing. bizav market: AviationWeek.com/podcast

18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION work, and we will continue to grow our constructive on the biz jet market due Equally important, Airbus is free to MAX Inventory Clearing involved in every delivery of every MAX airplane, [which] aftermarket business moving forward.” to soft demand, Bombardier is well-po- consider investing further in the A220. we’ve assumed will continue.” Analysts on a teleconference with sitioned across the subsegments, par- Among others, Airbus is in talks with May Continue Into 2022 Clearing out Boeing’s stored inventory will take about 18 Bombardier managers congratulated ticularly so in the most profitable large Breeze Airways CEO David Neeleman months, the CFO further said. them for reaching the train deal with cabin segment where it only competes about a substantial increase in range Michaels said that with all of that factored in, it means the Alstom and CDPQ. Still, the Bom- with Gulfstream,” Credit Suisse ana- for the aircraft, to more than 4,000 nm, > SIMULATOR TRAINING WILL ADD 2-5 MONTHS MAX ramp-up will be gradual, with deliveries likely starting bardier Transportation and A220 lysts agree. “Over time, we would ex- which would make U.S. transcontinen- > SPEED BUMPS INCLUDE FAA INVOLVEMENT AND in the fourth quarter, which begins in October. Jefferies ana- sales leave Bombardier focused on an pect excess bizjet capacity to be ab- tal and transatlantic missions possi- RESYNCHING SUPPLY CHAIN lysts predicted monthly production starts at an average rate industry that many observers have sorbed, which should enable demand ble. What is more, airlines such as Air of 21 in the third quarter, beginning in July, with 21 aircraft almost wished aloud it were not in, to improve for new jets, which should France-KLM have been lobbying Airbus Michael Bruno Washington also being pushed out of inventory every month, for a total considering the sector’s mixed perfor- be supportive of Bombardier Aviation to build an A220-500, a stretched ver- of 42 deliveries per month in 2020. mance in recent years and the widely over the long term.” sion of the -300 that would compete ith the aerospace manufacturing sector expecting Moody’s Investors Service projects cumulative deliveries held belief that the industry is due for The Alstom deal is slated to close with the Boeing 737-8 and its own Boeing to restart 737 MAX production as early as in the 36 months through December 2022 in two scenari- consolidation with too many OEMs in the first half of 2021, assuming it A320neo. It would offer, analysts be- WMarch or April, suppliers, aftermarket providers os—production starting April 30 or June 30, 2020—at about still competing. gains regulatory approval—no fait lieve, substantially lower unit costs. and countless other auxiliary businesses are trying to figure 1,675 aircraft for either situation (see charts). This compares

“The market hasn’t been growing BOMBARDIER out how fast the backed-up pipeline of narrowbodies will get with a projected 2,050 narrowbodies for the same period if and is hampered by having 40 models into service—and when things will return to precrisis normal. the grounding had not occurred and Boeing produced at its of business jets competing for those The Global 7500 will be the leading The answer, increasingly, is: Don’t hold your breath. then-planned monthly rate of 57 from mid-2019. finite sales,” says Brian Foley, a con- growth driver at Bombardier as a Kevin Michaels, managing director of AeroDynamic Ad- Still, besides simulator training and FAA involvement sultant with Brian Foley Associates. standalone business aviation OEM. visory, told a subdued Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance in every grounded or parked airplane initially, other speed Indeed, while many consultants conference early in February that it will take 18-24 months to bumps in returning to normal—i.e., a Boeing monthly pro- and analysts saw Textron as the only push out the roughly 400 undelivered MAXs stockpiled by duction rate of 57 737s and deliveries of around 47, according logical buyer of Bombardier Aviation, Boeing, in addition to flying the 387 grounded MAXs parked by to the Aviation Week Intelligence Network Fleet Discovery Wall Street was not enthusiastic about customers, along with the almost 100 fuselages aerostructures database—are becoming apparent. Textron doubling down on the indus- supplier Spirit AeroSystems has put on blocks in Wichita. For instance, Vertical Research Partners notes that air- try. A few observers have speculated With Boeing’s January reversal in endorsing that MAX line customers worldwide must have their training plans that even as a standalone business avi- pilots should undergo simulator training, the requirement— for the MAX individually approved by their respective na- ation company, Bombardier may even- tually merge, but only after its publicly Boeing MAX Production Scenarios Boeing MAX Delivery Scenarios traded share price falls or more costs No grounding 13-month grounding (April 30) 15-month grounding (June 30) No grounding 13-month grounding (April 30) 15-month grounding (June 30) are taken out. 700 800 Bellemare says changes will occur 700 at Bombardier Aviation in preparation 600 600 for business jets being the sole focus, 500 with “opportunities to optimize cost 500 400 and flexibility.” But overall, Bombar- accompli in Europe, as antitrust con- Airbus Chief Commercial Officer 400 cerns doomed an earlier train tie-up of Christian Scherer says such an aircraft 300 dier as a business aviation company 300 should be a cash generator moving Alstom and Siemens. But Bombardier was “not a question of if, but when.” 200 forward. It will count the largest such executives and financial analysts see The A220 is hugely important for 200 backlog in the industry at $14.4 billion the Bombardier-Alstom deal faring Airbus because it enables the OEM to 100 100 Annual Deliveries (number of aircraft) at the end of 2019, $1 billion more than better, as their products are more position an A320neo-family replace- Annual Production (number of aircraft) 0 0 rival Gulfstream of General Dynamics. complementary and there are growing ment upmarket, beginning at 180-200 2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 Bombardier’s product portfolio in- concerns about having enough indus- seats, while still being able to offer an Source: Moody’s Investors Service cludes the lauded Global 7500 among trial heft to compete with China. By up-to-date product at the lower end of if mandated by the FAA or other aviation regulators—will tional regulators, with the FAA looking after U.S. carriers. others, which Bombardier managers comparison, the A220 sale to Airbus the narrowbody market. add 2-5 months alone to the pushout timeline. There are Mid-February reports that Boeing was inspecting all its think could get produced at a rate of closed immediately after Canadian As part of the deal, Quebec will only 36 known MAX simulators operating worldwide, al- stored MAXs after discovering foreign object debris in the mid-30s per year and already has a and Quebec officials secured their stick to its shareholding in Airbus though major provider CAE continues to build so-called fuel tanks of some also add to concerns. backlog “well into” 2023. government interests. Canada for three years longer than ini- white tail sims for sale. Regardless, whenever it presses forward, the OEM will Bombardier could provide more in- For its part, Airbus now not only tially planned and remain a part-own- Once suppliers restart production, it could take up to six face discordant suppliers. “For Boeing, increasing produc- sight when it reports financial results has access to a massive strategic as- er until at least 2026. Its shares are months until the first MAX delivery of a new-built aircraft, tion back up will require planning ahead and resynchroniz- for the first quarter on May 7. Mean- set in the single-aisle business, but it then “redeemable by Airbus,” giving Michaels told the Seattle-area conference. Boeing CEO and ing the global supply chain,” say AlixPartners A&D Manag- while, analysts agree it has a fighting also no longer is held back by Bombar- it the option for full control. Details President David Calhoun and Chief Financial Officer (CFO) ing Directors Eric Bernardini and David Wireman. chance due to lower corporate debt, dier’s financial constraints. Airbus has and conditions of that arrangement Greg Smith have cautioned stakeholders that they will build Forging and castings work will need to start “several” increasing cash flow and Bellemare’s collected 658 orders for the A220-100 are confidential. up production “slowly” as Boeing’s empty production sys- months before assembly, they wrote in a February report, better reputation in managing busi- and -300 and is in the process of ramp- Also, Bombardier is selling its A220 tem resets from its first position, and Smith kept up that and raw materials such as titanium that are used in the for- ness aviation versus trains. “As the ing up production. In addition to the and A330 work-package production to tone at a recent financial event. mer process have a lead time of about a year. “This means sector’s premier bizjet with its four original final assembly facility in Mira- Airbus subsidiary Stelia Aerospace, “When you look at those three lines, they’re empty,” that decisions made now by Tier 3 and 4 suppliers will affect fuselage sections, Bombardier’s Global bel, Quebec, Airbus also is in the pro- which includes the A220 cockpit and Smith told a Cowen investor conference Feb. 12. “The nee- Boeing’s 2021 production rate,” they wrote. Airbus also could 7500 backlog likely is well-priced; and cess of setting up another A220 line in rear fuselage. c dle we’re threading is we’ve got airplanes that are out on keep increasing its own A320-related production, potentially its cash profitability should improve Mobile, Alabama, to deliver the first the ramp. We’ve got to get those delivered. We’ve got our adding to supply chain pressures. nicely as it moves down the learning aircraft to Delta Air Lines later this Check 6 Aviation Week editors discuss factory, our supply chain and then ultimately customers’ Others agree. “The global supply chain for aerospace curve,” say Cowen analysts. year. Mobile is to produce four aircraft what’s next for Bombardier in the crowded ability to take the airplanes. And then, of course, we’ve got takes time to move,” Albany International CFO Stephen “While we are not currently highly per month when it is in full swing. bizav market: AviationWeek.com/podcast the added element in that delivery now [of] the FAA being Nolan told analysts in February. c

18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 19 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Boeing MAX Simulator Training Investigation Bureau says the ET302 flight crew countered uncommanded Is Taking Shape nose-down stabilizer inputs with limit- ed manual electric-trim inputs, which > BOEING IS DEVELOPING RECOMMENDED SIMULATOR SESSIONS move the stabilizer more slowly than the MCAS does. > PILOTS ARE PUSHING FOR SCENARIOS SIMILAR TO THE TWO The pilots toggled the stabilizer trim FATAL MAX ACCIDENTS cutout switches to “off.” With the sta- bilizer still pushing the nose down, the Sean Broderick Washington and Miami captain countered by pulling back on his control column to deflect the eleva- ow that simulator sessions are the aircraft approaches a stall. tors up. He told the first officer to try a near-certain prerequisite The training also will put pilots using the manual trim wheel to rotate Nfor getting pilots back into through MCAS-related failure scenar- the stabilizer nose-up. The first officer 737 MAXs, Boeing and operators are ios, including situations similar to the replied that it “is not working.” The working through two related challeng- two accident flights, Lion Air Flight crew then cut the trim-motor switches es: what the new training will cover, 610 (JT610) and Ethiopian Airlines back on, which reactivated the MCAS. and how operators will work it into Flight 302 (ET302). In each case, the While the report does not provide their return-to-service planning. MCAS—triggered by a single source more details on the manual-trim issue, Boeing is finalizing the proposed of faulty AOA data shortly after take- one theory is that aerodynamic forces minimum simulator curriculum, but the off that told the FCC the aircraft’s on the stabilizer from the combination training is expected to consist of at least nose was too high—commanded re- of the aircraft’s speed, nose-up control four modules, three people who have peated nose-down inputs. The crews column inputs and nose-down stabiliz- reviewed drafts tell Aviation Week. The did not respond as Boeing expected er position prevented the first officer draft modules shared with pilots focus pilots would: detecting a runaway sta- from moving the control surface. Boe- on four topics: operation of the MAX’s bilizer, using yoke-mounted electric ing’s changes to the MCAS prevent Maneuvering Characteristics Augmen- trim inputs to counter the MCAS and repeated nose-down inputs, making tation System (MCAS) flight control toggling the stabilizer trim-motor cut- severe out-of-trim scenarios less like- law, MCAS-related emergency proce- out switches if the problem persisted. ly. But pilots briefed on the simulator dures, flight-deck ramifications of the The modified software compares session plans have urged Boeing to in- MAX’s linked flight control computers readings from both MAX AOA sen- clude a variety of manual-trim scenar- (FCC), and scenarios that require man- sors. A disagreement of 5.5 deg. or ios, including ones that incorporate ual horizontal stabilizer trim inputs. more nullifies MCAS activation, one of higher airspeeds that crews will face The MCAS’ intended operation is several safeguards Boeing has added. if nose-down inputs result in a dive. the most straightforward session. MAX pilots also will be shown other “In the new [MCAS] software, the The flight control law was added to changes linked to Boeing’s revised nose can be pulled back up, but there will the MAX to ensure the newest 737 flight control system logic that incor- still be some” nose-down movement, one handled like its predecessor in certain porate inputs from both FCCs. Some 737 pilot says. “Now I’m left with elec- rare, flaps-up, high-angle-of-attack involve new ways that indicator lights tric trim, which is not as responsive as (AOA) manual flight profiles. Designed are triggered, factoring in the revised MCAS, so getting the nose up will take to operate in the background, the system’s added redundancy. a little time. If we hit the cutout switches MCAS was not included in the MAX One simulator module will require and move to the trim wheel, what does flight crew operations manual (FCOM) pilots to use manual trim in different that feel like? We want to know.” or training. The system’s contribution scenarios such as after toggling the The manual-trim module is the only to two MAX fatal-accident sequenc- trim cutout switches in response to a one of the four that could apply to 737 es led regulators to ground the fleet runaway stabilizer. Investigations trig- Next Generation (NG) pilots as well, and call for changes before grounded gered by the accidents spotlighted chal- since the scenarios are not linked to MAXs can fly again. Boeing is incorpo- lenges linked to manual trim operations the MCAS. It is unclear if any of it will rating the MCAS changes in a broader such as when forces on the stabilizer be integrated into 737NG training. MAX flight control computer software make the center pedestal-mounted MAX pilots will see another change update and training revamp. trim wheel difficult to turn. in the new FCC software. In a move to The MCAS’ new logic allows only The 737 FCOM provided little de- incorporate more human-factors prin- one nose-down stabilizer input cycle tail on such scenarios, though they ciples into flight decks, the flight direc- per elevated AOA event instead of re- are covered more extensively in the tor—a guidance aid that prompts pi- peated inputs, as the original version flight crew training manual designed lots to climb, descend, or turn to follow did. It also allows pilots to counter for instructors, a document most line the path programmed into the flight automatic nose-down movement by pilots never see. The revised FCOM is management system—will drop off pri- pulling back on the yoke. Pilots will expected to include more information. mary flight displays during upsets. The experience the system’s operation as The sessions are expected to include change temporarily removes noncriti- part of the new simulator sessions. struggling with an out-of-trim aircraft, cal information from the pilots’ field of In addition, Boeing has modified the which can put significant forces on the view. “If I’m in a stall, my designated MAX FCC logic so that the autopilot horizontal stabilizer. A preliminary re- target altitude is pretty low on my list cuts out at a predetermined point as port from Ethiopia’s Aircraft Accident of concerns,” one MAX pilot says.

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Boeing MAX Simulator Training Investigation Bureau says the ET302 The simulator sessions are expect- who request time in Boeing simulators. would set Southwest up for an early flight crew countered uncommanded ed to take 90-120 min. Complementa- If simulator training requests exceed October MAX return. Southwest has Is Taking Shape nose-down stabilizer inputs with limit- ry computer-based training will cover Boeing’s training capacity, Boeing will three MAX simulators and expects to ed manual electric-trim inputs, which the four simulator scenarios, providing consider many factors when priori- bring three more online by summer, > BOEING IS DEVELOPING RECOMMENDED SIMULATOR SESSIONS move the stabilizer more slowly than videos and other lessons that support tizing requests, including regulatory followed by three additional ones in the MCAS does. what pilots will experience firsthand. approval of training, timing of MAX the second half of the year. “That will > PILOTS ARE PUSHING FOR SCENARIOS SIMILAR TO THE TWO The pilots toggled the stabilizer trim In early January, Boeing announced aircraft deliveries and the customer’s give us at least six MAX simulators FATAL MAX ACCIDENTS cutout switches to “off.” With the sta- that it would recommend simulator overall access to simulator training.” available for training by the time the bilizer still pushing the nose down, the sessions as part of all MAX pilot train- Training cannot start until the cur- aircraft is released to fly, and that will Sean Broderick Washington and Miami captain countered by pulling back on ing. The move reversed a position that riculum is approved. The FAA declines significantly reduce our training time his control column to deflect the eleva- was a key selling point for its newest to publicly discuss time frames for from where we started,” says Chief ow that simulator sessions are the aircraft approaches a stall. tors up. He told the first officer to try narrowbody: the ability for qualified signing off on training and the MAX Operating Officer Mike Van de Ven. a near-certain prerequisite The training also will put pilots using the manual trim wheel to rotate 737 pilots to transition to the MAX software modifications, but Boeing is Southwest operated 34 of the 387 Nfor getting pilots back into through MCAS-related failure scenar- the stabilizer nose-up. The first officer without costly and time-consuming anticipating that approval will come by MAXs grounded and has another 27 737 MAXs, Boeing and operators are ios, including situations similar to the replied that it “is not working.” The simulator work. While the FAA and midyear. Airlines have assumed they among the 400 MAXs Boeing is stor- working through two related challeng- two accident flights, Lion Air Flight crew then cut the trim-motor switches other regulators will have the final say will need 1-2 months to incorporate the ing for customers. “Those combined 61 es: what the new training will cover, 610 (JT610) and Ethiopian Airlines back on, which reactivated the MCAS. aircraft are our most reliable source of and how operators will work it into Flight 302 (ET302). In each case, the While the report does not provide lift once the aircraft is cleared to fly,” their return-to-service planning. MCAS—triggered by a single source more details on the manual-trim issue, Van de Ven says. “We believe that we Boeing is finalizing the proposed of faulty AOA data shortly after take- one theory is that aerodynamic forces can manage around 5-10 aircraft a week minimum simulator curriculum, but the off that told the FCC the aircraft’s on the stabilizer from the combination from this collective pool to be reintro- training is expected to consist of at least nose was too high—commanded re- of the aircraft’s speed, nose-up control COLLINS AEROSPACE duced to the operation. So it will take at four modules, three people who have peated nose-down inputs. The crews column inputs and nose-down stabiliz- least a couple of months for those air- reviewed drafts tell Aviation Week. The did not respond as Boeing expected er position prevented the first officer craft to return to service. And our crew- draft modules shared with pilots focus pilots would: detecting a runaway sta- from moving the control surface. Boe- ing is in place today to operate them.” on four topics: operation of the MAX’s bilizer, using yoke-mounted electric ing’s changes to the MCAS prevent YOKE-MOUNTED TRIM SWITCHES American Airlines has 37 grounded Maneuvering Characteristics Augmen- trim inputs to counter the MCAS and repeated nose-down inputs, making MAXs—24 in its fleet and 13 more in tation System (MCAS) flight control toggling the stabilizer trim-motor cut- severe out-of-trim scenarios less like- MANUAL TRIM WHEEL Boeing’s inventory. It has one simu- law, MCAS-related emergency proce- out switches if the problem persisted. ly. But pilots briefed on the simulator STAB-TRIM CUTOUT SWITCHES lator, with a second on order. Presi- dures, flight-deck ramifications of the The modified software compares session plans have urged Boeing to in- dent Robert Isom says the carrier is MAX’s linked flight control computers readings from both MAX AOA sen- clude a variety of manual-trim scenar- “sketching out a number of different (FCC), and scenarios that require man- sors. A disagreement of 5.5 deg. or ios, including ones that incorporate scenarios” to ensure it has the resourc- ual horizontal stabilizer trim inputs. more nullifies MCAS activation, one of higher airspeeds that crews will face es to get the MAXs back up “as soon The MCAS’ intended operation is several safeguards Boeing has added. if nose-down inputs result in a dive. as possible” following FAA approval. the most straightforward session. MAX pilots also will be shown other “In the new [MCAS] software, the United Airlines has one fixed-base The flight control law was added to changes linked to Boeing’s revised nose can be pulled back up, but there will The 737 runaway-stabilizer (stab) checklist emphasizes using yoke-mounted MAX simulator and is adding three the MAX to ensure the newest 737 flight control system logic that incor- still be some” nose-down movement, one main electric trim switches and control columns to adjust pitch. If necessary, full-flight devices by midyear. “We ac- handled like its predecessor in certain porate inputs from both FCCs. Some 737 pilot says. “Now I’m left with elec- stab-trim cutout switches can disconnect the trim motor, and pilots can move tually feel really comfortable in terms rare, flaps-up, high-angle-of-attack involve new ways that indicator lights tric trim, which is not as responsive as the stab by hand using the manual trim wheel. These scenarios are expected of where we are relative to simulator (AOA) manual flight profiles. Designed are triggered, factoring in the revised MCAS, so getting the nose up will take to be part of new simulator sessions being developed for the MAX. capability,” Chief Operations Officer to operate in the background, the system’s added redundancy. a little time. If we hit the cutout switches Greg Hart says. The Chicago-based MCAS was not included in the MAX One simulator module will require and move to the trim wheel, what does on minimum training requirements, MAX upgrades, train pilots and begin carrier had 14 737-9s when the fleet flight crew operations manual (FCOM) pilots to use manual trim in different that feel like? We want to know.” Boeing’s revised position is expected adding MAXs to flight schedules. Add- was grounded and was slated to take or training. The system’s contribution scenarios such as after toggling the The manual-trim module is the only to become part of the de facto stan- ing simulator sessions adds time. delivery of 16 more by the end of 2019 to two MAX fatal-accident sequenc- trim cutout switches in response to a one of the four that could apply to 737 dard, even if regulators take the unex- Southwest Airlines on Feb. 13 pushed and 28 in 2020. Like all other MAX es led regulators to ground the fleet runaway stabilizer. Investigations trig- Next Generation (NG) pilots as well, pected step of not accepting it. its MAX-free schedules out to Aug. 10, customers, its 2020 plans remain up in and call for changes before grounded gered by the accidents spotlighted chal- since the scenarios are not linked to Putting pilots through simulator from early June, and other carriers will the air because of the grounding and a MAXs can fly again. Boeing is incorpo- lenges linked to manual trim operations the MCAS. It is unclear if any of it will sessions adds complexity to airlines’ follow. Given Boeing’s current projec- delivery schedule that must align with rating the MCAS changes in a broader such as when forces on the stabilizer be integrated into 737NG training. return-to-service plans. There are 36 tions and the likelihood of simulator Boeing’s measured production restart. MAX flight control computer software make the center pedestal-mounted MAX pilots will see another change MAX simulators available globally, training, getting MAXs into revenue “At this point, we’re assessing the update and training revamp. trim wheel difficult to turn. in the new FCC software. In a move to with more coming online. Boeing has service before the fourth quarter could impact of the [planned] schedule,” The MCAS’ new logic allows only The 737 FCOM provided little de- incorporate more human-factors prin- eight and is “in the process of acquir- be challenging. “The timing remains un- says United Chief Commercial Officer one nose-down stabilizer input cycle tail on such scenarios, though they ciples into flight decks, the flight direc- ing two more” by midyear, the compa- certain, and we’re working through all Andrew Nocella. “But we do not an- per elevated AOA event instead of re- are covered more extensively in the tor—a guidance aid that prompts pi- ny says. It will work with customers of that right now,” Southwest CEO Gary ticipate flying the MAX this summer.” peated inputs, as the original version flight crew training manual designed lots to climb, descend, or turn to follow that need simulator access, coordinat- Kelly says. “Assuming for a second that Boeing is not saying how quickly did. It also allows pilots to counter for instructors, a document most line the path programmed into the flight ing with providers that have capacity. the simulator training [is] 2 hr., it will production will ramp back up once it automatic nose-down movement by pilots never see. The revised FCOM is management system—will drop off pri- “We are working with several take us at least a couple of additional restarts. The company plans to focus pulling back on the yoke. Pilots will expected to include more information. mary flight displays during upsets. The training providers as we thoroughly months from where we were to get all on getting built, undelivered MAXs experience the system’s operation as The sessions are expected to include change temporarily removes noncriti- prepare to meet anticipated simula- of our pilots through that training.” out to customers as production slowly part of the new simulator sessions. struggling with an out-of-trim aircraft, cal information from the pilots’ field of tor training demand,” Boeing says. Put together, Southwest’s ramp- ramps up. Consultancy AeroDynamic In addition, Boeing has modified the which can put significant forces on the view. “If I’m in a stall, my designated “Recognizing that full-flight simulators up from FAA approval to revenue Advisory projects a restart rate of 12-18 MAX FCC logic so that the autopilot horizontal stabilizer. A preliminary re- target altitude is pretty low on my list have a finite capacity, Boeing will do flights could take four months. That per month, with 52 aircraft per month cuts out at a predetermined point as port from Ethiopia’s Aircraft Accident of concerns,” one MAX pilot says. everything it can to support customers means an early June FAA approval not occurring until well into 2022. c

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CAAC Backs Airline Mergers epidemic—for example, by delivering urgent supplies—are exempt from as Epidemic Response charges such as landing fees. “The CAAC will continue to seek > TRAFFIC GETS MODEST BOOST AS SOME CHINESE RETURN TO WORK fiscal policies from other government departments to support aviation en- > CARRIERS ARE MAINTAINING LINKS WITH GLOBAL HUBS terprises in relation to controlling the epidemic,” the agency says, giving no Bradley Perrett Sydney details. Carriers are not publicly com- plaining about losses or asking for gov- ergers and capacity reduc- help enterprises get through this crisis.” ernment help; doing so during a nation- tions among Chinese airlines At the end of 2018, China had 51 al crisis would be politically incorrect. Mmay result from the COVID-19 passenger airlines, according to an of- One factor helping the industry virus epidemic, as the Civil Aviation ficial count issued in May 2019. No new must be a drift back to work by peo- Administration of China (CAAC) says ones have been licensed since then. ple who were in their hometowns cel- it supports reorganization of the in- There are so many not because, as ebrating the Lunar New Year when the dustry as part of its response to the elsewhere, they include a profusion of epidemic became an acknowledged crisis. The agency said on Feb. 12 it little regional airlines—in fact, China emergency in the last 10 days of Jan- is also asking departments to provide has just one—but mainly because so uary. However, the boost in traffic is additional relief for the industry in many cities and provinces have spon- modest compared with the usual surge paying charges and taxes. sored the establishment of local main- of travelers at the end of the holiday. Passenger traffic for mainland Chi- line carriers. These operate standard For example, Shanghai’s two air- nese airlines since Lunar New Year’s six-abreast narrowbody airliners. ports, Pudong and Hongqiao, handled 130,000 and 70,000 passengers, respec- tively, on the peak day at the end of the 2019 Lunar New Year holiday. This year, Feb. 9 should have been the peak, yet Pudong and Hongqiao handled only 48,000 and 27,000 passengers, respec- Chinese carriers, including China Eastern Airlines, have been rushing supplies and medical staff to areas hit by the epidemic. tively. Still, the two airports’ Feb. 9 total passenger volume was up 45% on the average traffic flows measured

STATE-OWNED ASSETS SUPERVISION AND ADMINISTRATION COMMISSION AND ADMINISTRATION ASSETS SUPERVISION STATE-OWNED over the three previous days, indicat- ing some back-to-work traffic. As foreign airlines have suspended Day (Jan. 25) has been 70% lower than The CAAC has long been dissatis- flights in response to a lack of demand, the corresponding holiday period in fied with the multiplicity of airlines, China has told its airlines to keep in- 2019, the CAAC says, adding that the which undermines profitability with ternational links open—at least min- average load factor has been lower high competition and could jeopardize imally. They are flying even when no than 45%. Nonetheless, this under- safety by spreading the limited num- seats have been sold, according to a states the immediate situation. The ber of experienced managers among well-placed industry source. mainland Chinese carriers planned too many company teams. The agency The country still has 710 internation- on Feb. 13 to operate only 29% of their has more or less refused to license new al air routes that are open—operated scheduled flights, according to local mainline passenger carriers for the by 77 Chinese and foreign airlines— consultancy VariFlight. A few days past four years. Losses amid the epi- the CAAC says, giving no comparative earlier, activity appeared to have sta- demic must be bleeding industry capi- pre-epidemic figures. Tellingly, the bilized at about a third of the schedule. tal, another matter that the CAAC re- agency adds that there are only 2,610 On various days in the first week of gards as critical to maintaining safety. international flights a week, mean- February, four carriers did not fly at For immediate relief, the CAAC has ing the average route is being served all: Air Travel, Fuzhou Airlines, Geng- suspended a charge of a few dollars about once every two days. And 29% of his Khan Airlines and Grand China Air. per passenger that airlines pay into an international flights are by freighters. All are now back in the air, however. aviation infrastructure fund. Commer- The agency stresses that China is Listing the steps it is taking, the cial aviation is also among the indus- still connected to major international CAAC says: “We are supporting reor- tries that have been given a little tax hubs, such as Frankfurt, London, Los ganization by combination, with opti- relief as a result of the virus outbreak. Angeles, New York, Paris and Tokyo. c mization of capacity, according to the And flights run specifically as part of needs of aviation enterprises. We will the government’s efforts to combat the —Research by Ryan Wang

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CAAC Backs Airline Mergers epidemic—for example, by delivering Boeing and Airbus Need More A350s have been ordered directly urgent supplies—are exempt from and not been delivered. However, its as Epidemic Response charges such as landing fees. Widebody Orders From China China presence is entirely based on “The CAAC will continue to seek one model, as carriers in the country > TRAFFIC GETS MODEST BOOST AS SOME CHINESE RETURN TO WORK fiscal policies from other government > 787 PRODUCTION IS CUT BACK TO BUY MORE TIME have not placed orders for the other departments to support aviation en- long-haul model in the Airbus portfo- > CARRIERS ARE MAINTAINING LINKS WITH GLOBAL HUBS terprises in relation to controlling the > COVID-19 OUTBREAK COULD DELAY FLEET EXPANSION lio, the A330neo. Airbus was forced to epidemic,” the agency says, giving no cut A330 production to 40 aircraft in Bradley Perrett Sydney details. Carriers are not publicly com- Jens Flottau and Guy Norris Singapore 2020 because of the slow demand. It plaining about losses or asking for gov- delivered 53 last year. ergers and capacity reduc- help enterprises get through this crisis.” ernment help; doing so during a nation- n paper, the Singapore Airshow CHINESE AIRLINES Once air travel recovers At the end of 2018, China had 51 al crisis would be politically incorrect. after the COVID-19 crisis tions among Chinese airlines could not have come at a better New Widebody may result from the COVID-19 passenger airlines, according to an of- One factor helping the industry time. Trade tensions between subsides, demand will be de- M O Direct Orders and Deliveries virus epidemic, as the Civil Aviation ficial count issued in May 2019. No new must be a drift back to work by peo- the U.S. and China appear to be eas- fined not only by replacement Administration of China (CAAC) says ones have been licensed since then. ple who were in their hometowns cel- ing, opening the door for much-need- Boeing 787 Airbus A350 needs, but also by growth am- it supports reorganization of the in- There are so many not because, as ebrating the Lunar New Year when the ed widebody orders to sustain pro - Orders Deliveries Orders Deliveries bitions. dustry as part of its response to the elsewhere, they include a profusion of epidemic became an acknowledged duction rates of key programs. Trade Overall in the Asia-Pacific Air China 15 14 30 10 crisis. The agency said on Feb. 12 it little regional airlines—in fact, China emergency in the last 10 days of Jan- shows are an ideal platform for final region, Airbus says it has a is also asking departments to provide has just one—but mainly because so uary. However, the boost in traffic is negotiations (and announcements) of China Eastern 19 19 20 7 57% market share in widebod- additional relief for the industry in many cities and provinces have spon- modest compared with the usual surge big aircraft orders. China Southern 10 10 20 6 ies, as measured by its cur- paying charges and taxes. sored the establishment of local main- of travelers at the end of the holiday. But the reality was very different. rent backlog: 288 long-haul Passenger traffic for mainland Chi- line carriers. These operate standard For example, Shanghai’s two air- The 2020 Singapore Airshow will Hainan Airlines 34 34 — — aircraft are to be delivered to nese airlines since Lunar New Year’s six-abreast narrowbody airliners. ports, Pudong and Hongqiao, handled be remembered as the slowest of its Sichuan Airlines — — 10 — the region, compared to 218 130,000 and 70,000 passengers, respec- kind in recent memory, a result of the Xiamen Airlines 12 12 — — from Boeing. “The A350 has tively, on the peak day at the end of COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak that completely changed the mo- the 2019 Lunar New Year holiday. This kept many from traveling to Singa- Ruili Airlines 6 — — — mentum,” says Francois Cau- year, Feb. 9 should have been the peak, pore, let alone finalizing deals. Airlines Okay Airways 5 — — — dron, senior vice president of yet Pudong and Hongqiao handled only across Asia are busy dealing with the marketing. Totals: 101 89 80 23 48,000 and 27,000 passengers, respec- collapse in demand and protecting Mounir sees the 787-10 in near-term cash flow. Note: Mainland Chinese airlines have placed no direct orders for particular as being “at the Chinese carriers, including China Chinese carriers are operating the Boeing 777X or the A330neo. Sources: Airbus and Boeing beginning of something spe- Eastern Airlines, have been rushing around one-third of their usual ca - cial.” He continued: “People supplies and medical staff to areas pacity, and many airlines in surround- lead-time play [from the time the or- see it as a 777-200ER replacement. hit by the epidemic. ing countries with exposure to China der is placed], so when China reopens, Now they are talking to us about im- are almost equally affected. Major it is still two years to go.” proving the capabilities of it a bit.” tively. Still, the two airports’ Feb. 9 fleet investment decisions will have In other words: There is no time He declined to disclose what these total passenger volume was up 45% to wait until the situation stabilizes. to lose. improvements would entail. on the average traffic flows measured Nonetheless, Boeing is hopeful it The numbers show that if Chinese Boeing’s head of commercial sales

STATE-OWNED ASSETS SUPERVISION AND ADMINISTRATION COMMISSION AND ADMINISTRATION ASSETS SUPERVISION STATE-OWNED over the three previous days, indicat- will be back in business with Chi- airlines want to grow their widebody is very bullish about 777X prospects. ing some back-to-work traffic. nese airlines soon, as trade tensions fleets, they will have to order addi- “The market space is enormous,” he As foreign airlines have suspended are abating. The impact on aviation tional aircraft from OEMs, unless said, pointing to the installed 777 base Day (Jan. 25) has been 70% lower than The CAAC has long been dissatis- flights in response to a lack of demand, of COVID-19 is “a temporary shock,” they are prepared to take on more of 1,481 aircraft globally. He predicts a the corresponding holiday period in fied with the multiplicity of airlines, China has told its airlines to keep in- Senior Vice President for Commercial leased capacity. The latter is typical- “huge peak” in replacement demand 2019, the CAAC says, adding that the which undermines profitability with ternational links open—at least min- Sales and Marketing Ihssane Mounir ly not so easy, as lessors try to avoid in 2023 and 2024, which is when some average load factor has been lower high competition and could jeopardize imally. They are flying even when no said at the show. speculative orders for widebodies, of the early 777-300ER deliveries than 45%. Nonetheless, this under- safety by spreading the limited num- seats have been sold, according to a “There is a lot of pent-up demand given the high risk involved. come up for replacement. Boeing de- states the immediate situation. The ber of experienced managers among well-placed industry source. in the widebody market,” Mounir said. For Boeing, there are very few out- livered the first -300ER in 2004. mainland Chinese carriers planned too many company teams. The agency The country still has 710 internation- As a result of the trade tensions with standing orders for 787s in China. Mounir said he is “frustrated by on Feb. 13 to operate only 29% of their has more or less refused to license new al air routes that are open—operated the U.S., carriers from Asia’s biggest Combined orders total 101 aircraft people saying that we have not sold scheduled flights, according to local mainline passenger carriers for the by 77 Chinese and foreign airlines— market “have hit the pause button, from seven airlines: Air China, China enough 777Xs.” In April 2003, a year consultancy VariFlight. A few days past four years. Losses amid the epi- the CAAC says, giving no comparative but the fundamentals are still there,” Eastern and China Southern Airlines, before the -300ER entered service earlier, activity appeared to have sta- demic must be bleeding industry capi- pre-epidemic figures. Tellingly, the he noted. Hainan Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, with Air France, Boeing had 87 orders bilized at about a third of the schedule. tal, another matter that the CAAC re- agency adds that there are only 2,610 Boeing recently announced it will Ruili Airlines and Okay Airways (see for the type, according to its own da- On various days in the first week of gards as critical to maintaining safety. international flights a week, mean- cut 787 production down further to table). Eighty-nine have already been tabase. There are currently 309 firm February, four carriers did not fly at For immediate relief, the CAAC has ing the average route is being served 10 aircraft per month from 12, and delivered. Ruili and Okay have yet to orders for the 777X. all: Air Travel, Fuzhou Airlines, Geng- suspended a charge of a few dollars about once every two days. And 29% of some analysts have voiced concern receive their first 787s, having or - Mounir also noted that the A380 his Khan Airlines and Grand China Air. per passenger that airlines pay into an international flights are by freighters. that the manufacturer may have to dered six and five, respectively. is no longer available, and further All are now back in the air, however. aviation infrastructure fund. Commer- The agency stresses that China is go below 10 if China does not reenter There are no Chinese airline orders sales of the 747-8 passenger version Listing the steps it is taking, the cial aviation is also among the indus- still connected to major international the market soon. for the 777X, either. Hong Kong-based are unlikely. Therefore, he contended CAAC says: “We are supporting reor- tries that have been given a little tax hubs, such as Frankfurt, London, Los Mounir, however, sees Boeing stay- Cathay Pacific bought 21 of the air- that the 777-9 has little competition in ganization by combination, with opti- relief as a result of the virus outbreak. Angeles, New York, Paris and Tokyo. c ing at 10 “for a couple of years and craft in 2013. the market for very large aircraft. The mization of capacity, according to the And flights run specifically as part of then going back up again.” He pointed Airbus has some aircraft on its A350-1000 has around 50 fewer seats, needs of aviation enterprises. We will the government’s efforts to combat the —Research by Ryan Wang out that “widebodies are a two-year backlog for China—a total of 57 depending on configuration. c

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 23 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Air Transport Aircraft Retirements Are on the Rise

> GLOBAL FLEET RETIREMENTS PICKED UP IN 2019, DESPITE THE 737 MAX GROUNDING > ANNUAL RETIREMENTS ARE PROJECTED TO KEEP CLIMBING EVEN AS DEMAND REMAINS STRONG

Sean Broderick Miami and Washington

ircraft retirements have been ronment remains favorable, signs of lagging for several years due in a slowdown could push more aircraft Apart to strong demand for lift, out of fleets. Global air traffic growth cheap fuel prices and a spate of issues slowed to 4.2% in 2019, the latest In- with new models designed to replace ternational Air Transport Association older ones, but now they appear to be (IATA) figures show. Although hardly on the rise, even as some contributing panic-inducing, that figure is a signifi- factors—such as the Boeing 737 MAX cant dip from 2018’s 7.3% increase and grounding—remain unresolved. is the first full year since 2009 that has Figures from consultancy Oliver seen traffic fall below the longer-term Wyman indicate that the number of 5.5% annual growth trend. Air cargo aircraft removed from the global fleet fared even worse, falling 3.3% last rose in 2019. While the numbers are year—the sector’s first year-over-year not ironclad—recent years’ retire- decline since 2012. ment figures are difficult to gauge Demand is not expected to be ham- since aircraft that are parked could pered by rising fuel costs. Global fuel return to service under certain con- prices in early February were down ditions—they suggest a long-expected about 15% from a year ago, IATA says. shift is underway. They remain stable and reasonable earmarked as replacements for older, After three consecutive years of by historical standards and are not less efficient narrowbodies. retirements below its forecast totals, projected to create airline-cost head- Operators have responded by ex- and a net figure that fell to about 500 winds anytime soon. tending leases and, in limited cases, annually, Oliver Wyman says prelimi- Given a generally positive macroen- spending money on aircraft they had nary data shows net removals jumped vironment, an uptick in retirements planned to retire. Airbus continues in 2019, surpassing 700 aircraft. That seems counterintuitive, particularly to experience delays on its A321neo is equivalent to about 2.5% of the considering fleet-related issues plagu- production line, forcing operators global fleet of 27,500 Western-built ing operators. The 737 MAX ground- such as JetBlue Airways to reshuffle commercial aircraft that the compa- ing, which started in March 2019 and short-term fleet plans. Nagging issues ny tracks. is still in effect, has removed 800 nar- with Rolls-Royce Trent 1000s have “In 2019, we would have expected rowbodies from fleets—many of them left some Boeing 787 operators with- retirements to slow down,” Oliver Wyman Vice President Tom Cooper Airbus and Boeing Commercial Deliveries, 3,919 said at Aviation Week’s Aero-Engines 257 Americas conference. “Somewhat 1997-2001 counterintuitively, the number of re- tirements in 2019 increased. We’ve Airbus Boeing been digging hard into that.” Cooper said the company’s latest A surge in deliveries from 1997 to 2001 has set multiyear fleet forecast, due out in the the airline industry up for a jump in retirements coming weeks, will show a “significant increase in what we’re forecasting in in the first half of this decade. 1341 retirements.” Aviation Week Intelligence Network Fleet Discovery database figures also 793 914 suggest a surge is imminent. Last year 620 803 852 557 564 492 527 ended a five-year stretch during which 375 294 311 325 total removals averaged 594 per year. 12 229 The next five years will see annual retirement figures average 1,122, Avi- ation Week’s latest forecast shows. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Totals While air transport’s macroenvi- Sources: Boeing and Airbus

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Air Transport Aircraft Retirements ers—lower maintenance costs. Market dynamics have created Are on the Rise shortages on several popular plat- forms, particularly among narrowbody > GLOBAL FLEET RETIREMENTS PICKED UP IN 2019, DESPITE THE aircraft. The MAX grounding has kept 737 MAX GROUNDING some comparable older-generation models in service, leading to a scarcity > ANNUAL RETIREMENTS ARE PROJECTED TO KEEP CLIMBING EVEN of used parts for CFM International’s AS DEMAND REMAINS STRONG venerable CFM56 model and the IAE V2500 at a time when they are needed Sean Broderick Miami and Washington most. Even before the MAX-induced demand pressures, annual shop visits ircraft retirements have been ronment remains favorable, signs of for both models were on the rise. They lagging for several years due in a slowdown could push more aircraft are not expected to peak until some- Apart to strong demand for lift, out of fleets. Global air traffic growth time in the middle of this decade. cheap fuel prices and a spate of issues slowed to 4.2% in 2019, the latest In- The situation has driven up prices with new models designed to replace ternational Air Transport Association for used engines and forced suppliers older ones, but now they appear to be (IATA) figures show. Although hardly to change their sourcing strategies. on the rise, even as some contributing panic-inducing, that figure is a signifi- GE Aviation, which consumes more factors—such as the Boeing 737 MAX cant dip from 2018’s 7.3% increase and USM than any other company, has grounding—remain unresolved. is the first full year since 2009 that has been eyeing younger assets to ensure Figures from consultancy Oliver seen traffic fall below the longer-term it has adequate supply to feed its net- Wyman indicate that the number of 5.5% annual growth trend. Air cargo work of overhaul shops. aircraft removed from the global fleet fared even worse, falling 3.3% last “We are doing a lot more legwork rose in 2019. While the numbers are year—the sector’s first year-over-year up front, looking further forward [to not ironclad—recent years’ retire- decline since 2012. gain an] understanding of retirement ment figures are difficult to gauge Demand is not expected to be ham- Aircraft retirements are projected to climb in the next several years, schedules before engines ever come since aircraft that are parked could pered by rising fuel costs. Global fuel and some figures suggest the trend started in 2019. into the market,” says Rudy Bryce, return to service under certain con- prices in early February were down GE Aviation’s general manager of ditions—they suggest a long-expected about 15% from a year ago, IATA says. JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET material and TrueChoice transition. shift is underway. They remain stable and reasonable earmarked as replacements for older, out their full allotment of widebodies, (see graph). That delivery spike means “We’re looking to structure deals that After three consecutive years of by historical standards and are not less efficient narrowbodies. giving added life to some older mod- the balance of the 4,000 Airbus and would provide an exit strategy with a retirements below its forecast totals, projected to create airline-cost head- Operators have responded by ex- els—such as Virgin Atlantic’s Airbus Boeing airframes that entered ser- very flexible timeline. That’s one of the and a net figure that fell to about 500 winds anytime soon. tending leases and, in limited cases, A340-600s—tapped for replacement. vice then will be due to leave the fleet things that all of us are looking for in annually, Oliver Wyman says prelimi- Given a generally positive macroen- spending money on aircraft they had These issues have combined to through 2026. the market—to go further back in time nary data shows net removals jumped vironment, an uptick in retirements planned to retire. Airbus continues keep some aircraft around longer Meanwhile, 737 MAX operators with the objective of acquiring the ma- in 2019, surpassing 700 aircraft. That seems counterintuitive, particularly to experience delays on its A321neo than airlines had planned. But for the hope to reintroduce their grounded terial at the right price.” is equivalent to about 2.5% of the considering fleet-related issues plagu- production line, forcing operators most part, operators are sticking by narrowbodies sometime in 2020, as- Demand for narrowbody lift com- global fleet of 27,500 Western-built ing operators. The 737 MAX ground- such as JetBlue Airways to reshuffle their big-picture fleet strategies. For suming regulators sign off on manda- bined with the MAX’s grounding have commercial aircraft that the compa- ing, which started in March 2019 and short-term fleet plans. Nagging issues instance, American Airlines parked tory changes stemming from probes further pressured CFM56 parts sup- ny tracks. is still in effect, has removed 800 nar- with Rolls-Royce Trent 1000s have its last 26 MD-80s last fall, even as into two fatal accidents. Although the ply in particular. Overhaul demand “In 2019, we would have expected rowbodies from fleets—many of them left some Boeing 787 operators with- its 24 MAXs sat in limbo. Extending MAX’s return to service (RTS) could continues to rise, suggesting that a retirements to slow down,” Oliver the MD-80’s service life with engine expedite a few retirements, the con- steady stream of USM will be con- Wyman Vice President Tom Cooper Airbus and Boeing Commercial Deliveries, 3,919 overhauls and other maintenance was sensus is that airlines will continue sumed. But the release of some 800 said at Aviation Week’s Aero-Engines 257 deemed too costly, and pilots were to stick to their fleet plans and make grounded MAXs into the fleet over a Americas conference. “Somewhat 1997-2001 needed for other aircraft. adjustments in their networks. year or two could help jump-start the counterintuitively, the number of re- Allowing useful lives to drive retire- “As a result, we believe the MAX flow of serviceable parts. tirements in 2019 increased. We’ve Airbus Boeing ment dates and assuming operators impact on airline capacity will be a The spike in capacity from the MAX been digging hard into that.” can get about 25 years out of an aver- factor for several years, and even with will exacerbate the natural retirement Cooper said the company’s latest A surge in deliveries from 1997 to 2001 has set age airframe, simple math shows that [an] RTS in mid-2020, we do not see a cycle that is getting ready to boom. multiyear fleet forecast, due out in the the industry is due for an increase in surge in retirements or sudden remov- Assuming a CFM56 needs a shop vis- the airline industry up for a jump in retirements coming weeks, will show a “significant removals. An early-1990s delivery al of existing narrowbody aircraft un- it every eight years or so, the 24-year increase in what we’re forecasting in in the first half of this decade. 1341 rush saw Airbus, Boeing and Mc- less there is a marked drop in demand mark becomes a de facto retirement retirements.” Donnell-Douglas (which merged with for lift from the airlines,” Canaccord date for many of the engines, as a third Aviation Week Intelligence Network Boeing in 1997) deliver 2,045 aircraft, Genuity analyst Ken Herbert says. full overhaul is deemed too expensive. Fleet Discovery database figures also 793 914 almost 682 per year, in 1991-93. De - While the retirement uptick is busi- Deliveries of 737NGs started in 1997 suggest a surge is imminent. Last year 620 803 852 mand then fell off, as did deliveries, to- ness as usual for fleet planners, it has and averaged about 230 per year from 557 564 492 527 ended a five-year stretch during which 375 taling 1,224, or 408 per year, in 1994-96. significant ramifications for the after- 1998 to 2002. Deliveries of Airbus 294 311 325 A320ceos proceeded at a similar clip. total removals averaged 594 per year. 12 229 But airline fortunes changed again, market. Older aircraft leaving the fleet The next five years will see annual and combined annual deliveries from reduce operators’ maintenance needs Starting in 2022, the aircraft and en- retirement figures average 1,122, Avi- the two dominant manufacturers but also provide used serviceable ma- gines still in service from that period ation Week’s latest forecast shows. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Totals jumped during the next five years, terial (USM) feedstock, which helps will begin to hit their prime retire - While air transport’s macroenvi- Sources: Boeing and Airbus averaging 783 per year through 2001 operators—and maintenance provid- ment windows. c

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 25 UNMANNED AVIATION

Collins Aerospace end on Sept. 30. The sixth and seventh generations of the waveform have provided validation data to support devel- Nears Completion of opment of the DO-362A MOPS. The project originally started as a three-year effort, then Drone Data Link Project was extended twice, to total nine years, says Moore. The first three generations of the waveform were analyzed by an earlier RTCA standards committee, SC-203, “which was COLLINS PLANS FIRST COMMERCIAL C2 RADIO > not headed to a MOPS or a TSO,” says Moore. “It was just a CONTROL LINK WORKS WITH VARIOUS DRONES sandbox learning exercise of the art of the possible.” > RTCA disbanded SC-203 in 2013 and replaced it with SC-228, which is more narrowly focused on developing per- Bill Carey Washington formance standards for C2 and detect-and-avoid systems on ollins Aerospace is nearing completion of a nine-year large drones transiting through lower altitudes to Class A project with NASA to develop a command-and-con- airspace above 18,000 ft. Ctrol (C2) data link waveform that has informed the Collins built a series of prototype radios to house the wave- C2 certification basis for unmanned aircraft to safely fly in form, which NASA tested at numerous sites with differing ter- controlled airspace. rain around the U.S. where the agency has RF authorizations. Over seven generations and flight-test campaigns since The NASA Glenn Research Center Lockheed S-3B Viking 2011, the avionics manufacturer and NASA have developed twin-engine jet has served as the workhorse of flight-testing

the command nonpayload communica- COLLINS AEROSPACE tions (CNPC) data-transmission wave- form supporting DO-362, the RTCA specification for unmanned aircraft C2 data link minimum operational perfor- mance standards (MOPS). Published in September 2016, DO- 362 is specified by the FAA in Techni- cal Standard Order (TSO)-C213, which provides guidance for manufacturers applying to the agency for TSO autho- rization, or design approval, to build CNPC radios operating in the C band (5040-5050 MHz). Since release of the TSO in 2018, the FAA has sought revisions to the under- lying requirements to address concerns Prototype CNPC-1000 (left) and over radio frequency (RF) interference CNPC-5000 data link radios. and spectral efficiency. RTCA’s Special Committee-228 for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) is working on updated DO-362A MOPS, campaigns, complemented by a single-engine Beechcraft which it expects to complete in June. The revised standard T-34C turboprop and Collins-supplied Beechcraft A36 likely will be referenced in a new TSO-C213A. Bonanza single-engine piston aircraft operated by the Uni- Once the TSO is updated—and upon release by the Fed- versity of Iowa. eral Communications Commission (FCC) of spectrum man- Collins started building the radio hardware that it now agement rules for UAS—Collins Aerospace is positioned calls the CNPC family during development of the fourth gen- to be the first manufacturer to build a commercial C-band eration of the waveform, Moore says. Jim Williams, then the CNPC data link radio for UAS, a product the company has first director of the FAA’s UAS Integration Office, asked the branded the CNPC-5000. company to build a DO-362-compliant, small form factor ra- On Nov. 25, the FCC released a public notice seeking com- dio that he could demonstrate on a 44-lb. Insitu ScanEagle. ment on issues related to UAS operations in the L band In 2014, the parties tested the ScanEagle fitted with a (960-1164 MHz) and the C band from 5030-5091 MHz spec- CNPC-1000 radio operating in the L band at Naval Support trum that was recommended for allocation for UAS by the Facility Dahlgren, Virginia. World Radiocommunication Conferences in 2007 and 2012. Collins initially focused on testing the C2 waveform with- Comments were due Dec. 26. in the L band, which the NASA project also authorized with Collins executives acknowledge that it may be a couple of the C band. The waveform can be adapted across frequency years before the necessary authorizations become available. bands; it uses time-division multiple access as the method “It’s still a little bit dynamic, but I think it’s fair to say to transmit data over an RF channel on uplink and frequen- we’re committed to seeing this through and bringing appro- cy-division multiple access on downlink. priate products to market after we’ve spent such a good time Three years into the waveform development effort, the laying the groundwork for it,” says John R. Moore, associate Defense Department raised concerns over the data link director of autonomy and mission engineering solutions. interfering with military TACAN (tactical air navigation) What is more certain is that Collins’ jointly funded project and civilian DME (distance-measuring equipment) radio with NASA to develop the CNPC data link waveform will navigation systems, which both operate in the L band.

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST UNMANNED AVIATION

Collins Aerospace end on Sept. 30. The sixth and seventh generations of the The project then shifted to emphasize the C band spectrum “We are able to use those early prototypes, running the waveform have provided validation data to support devel- that was originally allocated for the never-fielded Microwave waveform, and [to operate] it over a ground network of Nears Completion of opment of the DO-362A MOPS. Landing System. Adapting the waveform to operate in the towers. We’ve been doing 200-nm BVLOS flights since 2016 The project originally started as a three-year effort, then C band was a more difficult problem, says Moore. in New Mexico with BNSF,” McElroy adds. Drone Data Link Project was extended twice, to total nine years, says Moore. The “CNPC requires many closely spaced, narrowband chan- As demonstrated on the ScanEagle, the C2 radio can be first three generations of the waveform were analyzed by nels. We’re trying to build tiny channels and pack them real- adapted to small drones—the CNPC-1000 operating in the an earlier RTCA standards committee, SC-203, “which was COLLINS PLANS FIRST COMMERCIAL C2 RADIO ly close together at higher frequencies, so it is a technically L band weighs 203 grams (7.2 oz.), about the weight of an > not headed to a MOPS or a TSO,” says Moore. “It was just a harder job to do,” he explains. iPhone, says Moore. The bigger issue is how much power a CONTROL LINK WORKS WITH VARIOUS DRONES sandbox learning exercise of the art of the possible.” “When the L-band allocation was restricted to us, it would small UAS has available to operate the data link. The CNPC- > RTCA disbanded SC-203 in 2013 and replaced it with have been easier to move to a lower frequency, but there was 1000 consumes 8 watts of power to transmit at 1 watt. SC-228, which is more narrowly focused on developing per- no appropriate safety spectrum available that was identified “The key thing I would like to point out is in all of these Bill Carey Washington formance standards for C2 and detect-and-avoid systems on for the purpose,” says Moore. “So for the past three years, configurations we share a common modem card and a com- ollins Aerospace is nearing completion of a nine-year large drones transiting through lower altitudes to Class A the focus has been exclusively on C band to solve the tech- mon waveform that was the vision all along,” says Moore. project with NASA to develop a command-and-con- airspace above 18,000 ft. nical challenges in these higher frequencies.” “You have to have slightly different packaging for the pow- Ctrol (C2) data link waveform that has informed the Collins built a series of prototype radios to house the wave- Collins was able to use L-band prototype radios operat- er levels, and you have to have a different radio frequency C2 certification basis for unmanned aircraft to safely fly in form, which NASA tested at numerous sites with differing ter- ing close to the upper UHF frequencies dedicated to the card that has all those adjustments for which spectrum controlled airspace. rain around the U.S. where the agency has RF authorizations. rail industry to provide freight carrier BNSF Railway with you’re broadcasting in,” explains Moore. “But we’re able to Over seven generations and flight-test campaigns since The NASA Glenn Research Center Lockheed S-3B Viking a C2 data link to fly the 110-lb. Latitude Hybrid Quadro - isolate those changes just to that RF card, so that the core 2011, the avionics manufacturer and NASA have developed twin-engine jet has served as the workhorse of flight-testing tor-60 for rail inspections (AW&ST Oct. 14-27, 2019, p. 56). of the radio—the waveform and the modem, the heavy pro-

the command nonpayload communica- COLLINS AEROSPACE The FAA chose BNSF as a “Pathfinder” partner in 2015 to cessing—is actually common across all of these.” tions (CNPC) data-transmission wave- demonstrate drone operations beyond visual line of sight Plans call for fitting the General Atomics MQ-9B Sky- form supporting DO-362, the RTCA (BVLOS) of the pilot. Guardian with a prototype CNPC-5000 radio to demon- specification for unmanned aircraft C2 “When that [L-band] safety spectrum wasn’t going to strate flights of a large drone in controlled airspace under data link minimum operational perfor- become available in the near term, we were able to use the NASA’s UAS in the National Airspace System Project. With mance standards (MOPS). same radios. They were able to reach the UHF frequen- a maximum takeoff weight of 12,500 lb., the SkyGuardian Published in September 2016, DO- cies with little modification,” says Kevin McElroy, Collins will be the largest among unmanned aircraft of various sizes 362 is specified by the FAA in Techni- Aerospace associate director of marketing and strategy for flown during the Systems Integration and Operationaliza- cal Standard Order (TSO)-C213, which mission and advanced solutions. tion testing this summer. c provides guidance for manufacturers applying to the agency for TSO autho- rization, or design approval, to build CNPC radios operating in the C band (5040-5050 MHz). Since release of the TSO in 2018, the FAA has sought revisions to the under- lying requirements to address concerns Prototype CNPC-1000 (left) and over radio frequency (RF) interference CNPC-5000 data link radios. and spectral efficiency. RTCA’s Special Committee-228 for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) is working on updated DO-362A MOPS, campaigns, complemented by a single-engine Beechcraft Fleet Discovery Military which it expects to complete in June. The revised standard T-34C turboprop and Collins-supplied Beechcraft A36 likely will be referenced in a new TSO-C213A. Bonanza single-engine piston aircraft operated by the Uni- Once the TSO is updated—and upon release by the Fed- versity of Iowa. eral Communications Commission (FCC) of spectrum man- Collins started building the radio hardware that it now Discover Opportunity with Unparalleled agement rules for UAS—Collins Aerospace is positioned calls the CNPC family during development of the fourth gen- to be the first manufacturer to build a commercial C-band eration of the waveform, Moore says. Jim Williams, then the Tracking of Global Military Fleets CNPC data link radio for UAS, a product the company has first director of the FAA’s UAS Integration Office, asked the branded the CNPC-5000. company to build a DO-362-compliant, small form factor ra- Aviation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery Military Edition simplifi es On Nov. 25, the FCC released a public notice seeking com- dio that he could demonstrate on a 44-lb. Insitu ScanEagle. tracking global military aircraft and engines — piloted and unpiloted, fi xed wing ment on issues related to UAS operations in the L band In 2014, the parties tested the ScanEagle fitted with a and rotary — so you can discover new opportunities to grow your business. (960-1164 MHz) and the C band from 5030-5091 MHz spec- CNPC-1000 radio operating in the L band at Naval Support ● Featuring over 70,000 aircraft and 110,000 engines trum that was recommended for allocation for UAS by the Facility Dahlgren, Virginia. in service with World Radiocommunication Conferences in 2007 and 2012. Collins initially focused on testing the C2 waveform with- more than 400 military operators. Comments were due Dec. 26. in the L band, which the NASA project also authorized with ● Searchable and fi lterable by aircraft, engine, category, mission, lift type, Collins executives acknowledge that it may be a couple of the C band. The waveform can be adapted across frequency weight class and more. years before the necessary authorizations become available. bands; it uses time-division multiple access as the method See for yourself how Fleet Discovery Military can help you track aircraft and “It’s still a little bit dynamic, but I think it’s fair to say to transmit data over an RF channel on uplink and frequen- engines so you never miss a business opportunity. we’re committed to seeing this through and bringing appro- cy-division multiple access on downlink. priate products to market after we’ve spent such a good time Three years into the waveform development effort, the laying the groundwork for it,” says John R. Moore, associate Defense Department raised concerns over the data link To learn more, go to aviationweek.com/FDMilitary director of autonomy and mission engineering solutions. interfering with military TACAN (tactical air navigation) Or call: Anne McMahon +1 646 291 6353 | Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 What is more certain is that Collins’ jointly funded project and civilian DME (distance-measuring equipment) radio with NASA to develop the CNPC data link waveform will navigation systems, which both operate in the L band.

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 27 DEFENSE > Industry pressure on FCAS p. 29 New flight-training tech p. 30 First Step to Year-Round Endurance

> PHASA-35 FLOWN MANUALLY AND AUTONOMOUSLY AT WOOMERA CARRIED REPRESENTATIVE ELECTRO-OPTICAL CAMERA PAYLOAD Tony Osborne London >

BAE SYSTEMS

AE Systems and Prismatic are Once in the air, PHASA-35 (Persistent A dawn launch allowed the BAE/ targeting stratospheric test High-Altitude Solar Aircraft) operated Prismatic team to take advantage Bflights for later this year after under full autonomous control, includ- of benign wind conditions. The air- the first flight success with their PHA- ing a precise landing in the face of craft was recovered safely later in SA-35 high-altitude pseudo-satellite “significant side winds,” according to the day, despite strong crosswinds. (HAPS). details released by Prismatic. Pilots That first hop, on Feb. 10 at the also undertook manual control from yearlong endurance Prismatic has Woomera Test Range, Australia, the ground control station. promised for the platform (AW&ST marks the first major milestone for the The flight was sponsored by the July 16-29, 2018, p. 31). Prismatic-developed solar-powered UK’s Defense Science and Technology PHASA-35 carried a representative aircraft since BAE’s takeover of the Laboratory and the Australian De- payload, an electro-optical camera, Farnborough, England-based company fense Science and Technology Group and systems to manage it thermally last fall. It is also another sign of prog- and flown under Australian military and electrically. Doherty also notes ress for the fledgling HAPS industry, airworthiness requirements. that the ecosystem of the aircraft particularly after two weather-related Prismatic and BAE Systems built allows for payload and control data accidents involving the pioneering two prototype PHASA-35 aircraft to use separate communications sys- Airbus Zephyr during trials in West- over 20 months during 2018-19, but tems. “The payload can be controlled ern Australia. some of the risk associated with fly- and monitored directly by a particu- No details have been released about ing was reduced through the use of lar nation or operator. . . . That means flight endurance, altitude and perfor- a quarter-scale model, PHASE-8, a that any security considerations mance on the initial trip, but the flight 28.7-ft. wingspan Reynolds number around data can be segregated away was used to validate predicted data as demonstrator that could recreate aero- from the vehicle itself,” he says. well as the flight control system, aero- dynamic characteristics of PHASA-35 BAE got involved with Prismatic dynamic and propulsion system perfor- operating at high altitude, but while in May 2018 through a collaboration mance, says Greig Doherty, BAE’s chief operating considerably lower. Two agreement and announced it would engineer for solar-powered high-en- of the PHASE-8 platforms have also purchase the company last September. durance, long-endurance programs. been supplied to the U.S. military. Drew Steel, the marketing lead for “With that flight under our belts . . . Like the Zephyr and other HAPS the PHASA-35 platform, says the de- we have now got the ability to go for a platforms, PHASA-35 has been de- velopment of PHASA-35 has piqued second higher-altitude, longer-endur- signed to operate in the benign condi- customer interest, potentially as a com- ance flight we are trying to do later tions of the stratosphere at altitudes ponent of a layered intelligence, surveil- on this year,” he says. Doherty says of up to 60,000 ft. for up to a year at a lance and reconnaissance capability. the data collected was “scalable” and time, soaring on its 35-m (114-ft.) wing- BAE’s involvement has brought expe- could now be extrapolated “to either span while carrying a payload of up to rience in flight control laws, controlla- long-duration operations or high-alti- 20 kg (44 lb.). bility, data packaging and sensor man- tude operations.” PHASA-35 uses solar cells that agement, notes Steel, lessons learned A dawn launch allowed the aircraft cover the upper surface of the wing from more than a decade developing to get airborne in gentle wind condi- and the horizontal stabilizer to provide UAV capabilities that ultimately re- tions, with clearance for the flight to power to the electric motors and on- sulted in the Taranis unmanned combat proceed after “careful meteorological board systems and sensors. The solar air vehicle. With “fair winds,” Steel sug- planning,” says Doherty. The team panels also regenerate the lithium-ion gests, BAE and Prismatic believe they launched weather balloons and radio- battery cells to provide power at night. could offer a customer an initial HAPS sondes that were used to gather tacti- The long cycle life associated with capability within 12 months of the com- cal weather data prior to the flight. lithium-ion paves the way for the pletion of the flight-test program.c

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE > Industry pressure on FCAS p. 29 New flight-training tech p. 30

Defense Industry Wants To Maintain reviewed. He contends Indra lacks First Step to experience in the development of Momentum for European FCAS combat aircraft and the systems that will support the FCAS. Year-Round Endurance > PHASE 1B, TO BEGIN IN 2022, WILL INDUCT SPANISH INDUSTRY Airbus had been widely expected to lead the program in Spain, given > AIR CHIEFS PLAN TO SIGN FCAS CONVERGENCE AGREEMENT its experience building the A400M AT BERLIN ILA AIR SHOW IN MAY in Seville and performing local as- sembly of the Eurofighter. “This is Tony Osborne Toulouse something we have shared with the Spanish government, and we have of- erman parliamentary approv- The program will also work on tech- fered our hands to reverse the situa- als to fund the demonstrators nology for the remote carriers, the tion and make sure the best support for the European Future Com- reusable unmanned aircraft systems is given from Spain to the FCAS and PHASA-35 FLOWN MANUALLY AND AUTONOMOUSLY AT WOOMERA G > bat Air System (FCAS) have been that will operate alongside the fight- that Spain is getting the best from the > CARRIED REPRESENTATIVE ELECTRO-OPTICAL CAMERA PAYLOAD hailed as a major milestone, yet there er as a loyal wingman or to provide FCAS,” Faury adds. Tony Osborne London appear to be plenty more dramas to electronic warfare or surveillance Spain does not seem to be listening.

BAE SYSTEMS come. capability. Airbus will be the lead on On Feb. 18, Madrid announced Span- Industry had been increasingly development of the remote carriers, ish industry partners that will begin AE Systems and Prismatic are Once in the air, PHASA-35 (Persistent A dawn launch allowed the BAE/ impatient over Berlin’s political fum- with MBDA as a main partner. working on the program in support of targeting stratospheric test High-Altitude Solar Aircraft) operated Prismatic team to take advantage bling of support for the initial Phase Airbus, with Thales, will work on joint concept studies with France and Bflights for later this year after under full autonomous control, includ- of benign wind conditions. The air- 1A demonstration, worth €155 mil- development of the combat cloud net- Germany, perhaps as early as May. the first flight success with their PHA- ing a precise landing in the face of craft was recovered safely later in lion ($170 million), funded equally work that will connect the NGF with According to the Spanish defense SA-35 high-altitude pseudo-satellite “significant side winds,” according to the day, despite strong crosswinds. by Paris and Berlin. Contracts had other platforms, including the remote ministry, Airbus’ Spanish business (HAPS). details released by Prismatic. Pilots been expected at last year’s Paris carriers as well as other fighters, will support development of the fight- That first hop, on Feb. 10 at the also undertook manual control from yearlong endurance Prismatic has Air Show; even a January deadline tankers and intelligence-gathering er and low-observable technologies. Woomera Test Range, Australia, the ground control station. promised for the platform (AW&ST agreed between French and German assets, likely using advanced within- ITP Aero will support the engine de- marks the first major milestone for the The flight was sponsored by the July 16-29, 2018, p. 31). leaders came and went. and beyond-line-of-sight communica- velopment, with work on sensors and Prismatic-developed solar-powered UK’s Defense Science and Technology PHASA-35 carried a representative That deadline followed warnings tion methods. systems to be performed by Indra. A aircraft since BAE’s takeover of the Laboratory and the Australian De- payload, an electro-optical camera, from industry. And at the end of Meanwhile, the fighter demon- partnership of three companies— Farnborough, England-based company fense Science and Technology Group and systems to manage it thermally January, the air chiefs of the French, strator will use an engine featuring GMV, Sener Aeroespacial and Tec- last fall. It is also another sign of prog- and flown under Australian military and electrically. Doherty also notes German and Spanish air forces technologies planned for the future nobit-Grupo Oesia—will work on the ress for the fledgling HAPS industry, airworthiness requirements. that the ecosystem of the aircraft wrote jointly in the French newspa- NGF powerplant. Work on this remote carriers. particularly after two weather-related Prismatic and BAE Systems built allows for payload and control data per Le Figaro, stressing the impor- demonstrator engine-—likely based “This industrial alliance has al- accidents involving the pioneering two prototype PHASA-35 aircraft to use separate communications sys- tance of the project and warning on the Safran M88 from the Dassault ready been notified to Germany and Airbus Zephyr during trials in West- over 20 months during 2018-19, but tems. “The payload can be controlled that it must progress or risk losing Rafale—will be led by Safran, with France . . . so that negotiations can ern Australia. some of the risk associated with fly- and monitored directly by a particu- momentum. The partner countries MTU as main partner. begin to meet the planned objectives No details have been released about ing was reduced through the use of lar nation or operator. . . . That means want to bring FCAS into front-line Airbus says a simulation environ- and achieve the full integration of flight endurance, altitude and perfor- a quarter-scale model, PHASE-8, a that any security considerations use in 2040. ment will be jointly developed by the Spain into the NGWS [Next-Genera- mance on the initial trip, but the flight 28.7-ft. wingspan Reynolds number around data can be segregated away “All this while we must intensify company as well, to “ensure consis- tion Weapons System] project before was used to validate predicted data as demonstrator that could recreate aero- from the vehicle itself,” he says. our multinational collaboration ef- tency between demonstrators.” the summer of this year,” Spanish well as the flight control system, aero- dynamic characteristics of PHASA-35 BAE got involved with Prismatic forts, in order to encourage the devel- Phase 1B is where the challenges defense officials say. dynamic and propulsion system perfor- operating at high altitude, but while in May 2018 through a collaboration opment of a common strategic vision, could begin to mount, as it requires Industry is looking for a smooth mance, says Greig Doherty, BAE’s chief operating considerably lower. Two agreement and announced it would contributing directly to the defense of considerably more investment than transition from Phase 1A to 1B in or- engineer for solar-powered high-en- of the PHASE-8 platforms have also purchase the company last September. Europe,” the air chiefs wrote. 1A, likely well in excess of €1 billion der to meet a target of flying a fighter durance, long-endurance programs. been supplied to the U.S. military. Drew Steel, the marketing lead for The nod from the Bundestag ($1.1 billion), begging the question: If demonstrator in 2026. “With that flight under our belts . . . Like the Zephyr and other HAPS the PHASA-35 platform, says the de- emerged just hours prior to the German politics can hobble progress “We shouldn’t underestimate the we have now got the ability to go for a platforms, PHASA-35 has been de- velopment of PHASA-35 has piqued release of Airbus’ 2019 results on over investments worth less than huge progress which has been made second higher-altitude, longer-endur- signed to operate in the benign condi- customer interest, potentially as a com- Feb. 13. The funding pays for the first €100 million, what would the delays for a program of that magnitude and ance flight we are trying to do later tions of the stratosphere at altitudes ponent of a layered intelligence, surveil- 18 months of work—Phase 1A—to de- be if the investments required are 3-4 complexity,” Faury tells Aviation Week. on this year,” he says. Doherty says of up to 60,000 ft. for up to a year at a lance and reconnaissance capability. velop the demonstrators and mature times as much? “I am positive and optimistic [based] the data collected was “scalable” and time, soaring on its 35-m (114-ft.) wing- BAE’s involvement has brought expe- new technologies by prime contrac- Phase 1B also will involve induction on the work which has been done over could now be extrapolated “to either span while carrying a payload of up to rience in flight control laws, controlla- tors Dassault and Airbus as well as of Spanish industry into the demon- the last two years. We will play the role long-duration operations or high-alti- 20 kg (44 lb.). bility, data packaging and sensor man- their partners, MTU Aero Engines, strator program, including Madrid’s we think we have to play at each and tude operations.” PHASA-35 uses solar cells that agement, notes Steel, lessons learned MBDA, Safran and Thales. chosen industry lead, Indra, whose every milestone of the program.” A dawn launch allowed the aircraft cover the upper surface of the wing from more than a decade developing There will be four strands to the role has been protested by Airbus Phase 1B is expected to get under- to get airborne in gentle wind condi- and the horizontal stabilizer to provide UAV capabilities that ultimately re- demonstration program, the most since the decision was announced way in 2022. Prior to that, the three tions, with clearance for the flight to power to the electric motors and on- sulted in the Taranis unmanned combat significant being the flight-testing last September. air chiefs have agreed to try to bring proceed after “careful meteorological board systems and sensors. The solar air vehicle. With “fair winds,” Steel sug- of the fighter aircraft technology “We think it’s a mistake to select greater convergence between their planning,” says Doherty. The team panels also regenerate the lithium-ion gests, BAE and Prismatic believe they demonstrator representative of the Indra as the Spanish coordinator for operational needs and are hoping to launched weather balloons and radio- battery cells to provide power at night. could offer a customer an initial HAPS Next-Generation Fighter (NGF) the FCAS,” says Airbus CEO Guil - sign a document “specifying this com- sondes that were used to gather tacti- The long cycle life associated with capability within 12 months of the com- design, with Dassault acting as prime laume Faury, adding that the com- mon vision” at the ILA Air Show in cal weather data prior to the flight. lithium-ion paves the way for the pletion of the flight-test program.c and Airbus as a main partner. pany lobbied for the decision to be Berlin in May. c

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 29 DEFENSE

fly around 80 hr. in the Beechcraft T-6 have become task-saturated. PTN-trained pilots are using Texan II. Some 15 officer students and “The students will never do “PTN will continue for a few more off-the-shelf gaming com- five enlisted students, along with 13 in- something for the first time in flight; iterations,” says Riley. But he notes puters with virtual reality structors, took part in the first PTN that as PTN-developed technologies headsets that can be pur- training course that ran from Febru- they are going to are subsumed into the wider training chased at a fraction of the ary to August 2018. Of the 20 students, fly multiple iterations system, the program will continue cost of full-flight simulators. two washed out, and one destined for to look at other new technologies to F-16 training opted to come back for before they enhance the training system. “The 1,000 flight hours or zero some T-38 training before going back are actually flying technologies could apply to any skill time—you get the same ex- to the F-16. The second course, in Jan- set that is complex to learn,” he says. perience,” says Riley. uary-August 2019, featured students in the plane.” “With the students under the VR “Through PTN, the stu- and instructors from the U.S. Air headset, they can do an entire walk dent-centered learning is Force, Air National Guard, Navy and Riley says. “The flight model didn’t fly around an airplane in life-size and focusing on not only how RAF, while the 2020 iteration brings in like the real airplane, and the system scale; if they want to see the electrical you learn as a student but the first Marine Corps student. would crash if you opened one window system, you can remove the outside also what your background The U.S. Army, also inspired by too many.” skin of the aircraft,” he explains. is, what your capabilities PTN, revealed plans last year to in- In the latest version, many of the Riley says he is encouraged by in- are, and then harnessing troduce VR simulators at its training software bugs have been ironed out, dustry’s interest in the PTN program, that,” he adds. “The whole facility at Fort Rucker, Alabama. flight models have been improved, and with some big vendors now working point of this is to figure out In the latest iteration of PTN, the moves are underway to increase the on developing “ITDs of their own,” he the learning style of each program is using T-6Bs loaned from level of data analytics. notes. “I know what we’re doing is the individual and tailor it to the U.S. Navy with advanced cockpits Agreements with the Air Force right way . . . but it is probably going their need.” that PTN modified with an avionics Research Laboratory and NASA are to be something totally different five Supporting the new system designed specifically for the paving the way for the use of algo - years from today,” he adds. approach is the use of so- curriculum. rithms to monitor student biomet- The third phase of PTN began in called immersive training “In the initial stages, the systems rics, potentially allowing instructors January and is expected to run until DAN HAWKINS/U.S. AIR FORCE devices (ITD), essentially were exploratory and very buggy,” to understand when the students July-August of 2020. c high-specification but com- mercially available gaming computers New Technologies Enable Students equipped with high-definition virtual reality (VR) goggles. To Achieve More per Flight Hour The PTN students have access to 30 of the devices and can use them > THIRD ITERATION OF USAF PILOT TRAINING NEXT IS UNDERWAY throughout the course, unlike with the Take part in the Aerospace Innovation Forum! high-fidelity and costly simulators nor- > U.S. AIR FORCE, AIR NATIONAL GUARD, NAVY AND MARINE CORPS mally associated with military training. AND ROYAL AIR FORCE PILOTS ARE ENROLLED “The high-fidelity full-flight simu- lators provide high-quality training, April 20 – 21, 2020 | Montréal, Québec Tony Osborne Los Angeles and London but they are also high-demand, Palais des congrès de Montréal low-density,” says Riley. “With the n experimental U.S. Air Force the scripting of pilot academics and ITDs, you are providing high-demand, pilot training scheme is look- the introduction of new synthetic high-density, and so now, at any point Aing beyond conventional flight training technology, explains Lt. Col. if a student is struggling with a con- Take part in one of the largest get-togethers of the global simulators and classroom academics Ryan Riley, commander of Detach- cept, they can jump into an ITD.” in a bid to produce better pilots. ment 24, the PTN experimental train- Using the ITDs, the trainees can aerospace industry in North America! Air Education and Training Com- ing unit at Joint Base San Anto - practice maneuvers and procedures mand’s Pilot Training Next (PTN) pro- nio-Randolph in Texas. many times before they step into real Bfifififififihfifihfififififioffififififififiusfifiy-fifififififigfifivfififififififiofififioffifihfifiwofififi’sfifiofififififiosfififififi gram, now in its third iteration, has the “Most military training, whether it aircraft. potential to transform military flight is at a technical school for aircraft “The students will never do some- fififififififis,fiffififiufififigfikfiyfiofififisfififikfifisfifififififiofiffifififififisfiofifisfififififigfifififihfififis,fififififiufififigfi training. While it is primarily aimed at maintenance, firefighting or becoming thing for the first time in flight; they AfifiosfififififiDfigfififififiShfiffi,fiEfifififififififififiAfififiTfififisfiofifi,fiNfiwfiSfifififififififififififiyfifiofifi. producing a better pilot, more readily a pilot . . . does not [provide] access to are going to fly multiple iterations be- equipped for new-generation aircraft, much of the academic content; it is fore they are actually flying in the • it could also be used to train them doled out through a script or time - plane,” says Lt. Col. Robert Knapp, fi 1,200fifififififififififififis REGISTER NOW at more cheaply and quickly than ever. line,” Riley says. Detachment 24’s operations officer. •fi 100fifififififififififiofifififisfififikfifis https://www.aeromontreal.ca/aerospace- Two phases of PTN have already But PTN provides the students The students get the same amount of innovation-forum-2020.html successfully delivered pilot graduates with early access to training content flight time, he notes. “We are just re- •fi 1,400fiB2Bfififififififigs to training units for fighters, bombers prior to the beginning of a course, al- distributing the focus of the learn- and air mobility aircraft, and what was lowing them to learn at their own pace ing,” he adds. a largely Air Force-driven program with a learning management system “The students are better prepared Offifififififififififififififififififififi has now widened to include pilots from that prepares them for tests. and get a lot more out of every flight the Air National Guard, Navy, Marine “We produce over 1,000 pilots every hour. . . . [It is] much more valuable Corps and UK Royal Air Force (RAF). year in the U.S. Air Force, and regard- than the traditional system,” Riley says. At its heart are major changes to less of their background—if you have The PTN courses have the students

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 31 DEFENSE

fly around 80 hr. in the Beechcraft T-6 have become task-saturated. PTN-trained pilots are using Texan II. Some 15 officer students and “The students will never do “PTN will continue for a few more off-the-shelf gaming com- five enlisted students, along with 13 in- something for the first time in flight; iterations,” says Riley. But he notes puters with virtual reality structors, took part in the first PTN that as PTN-developed technologies headsets that can be pur- training course that ran from Febru- they are going to are subsumed into the wider training chased at a fraction of the ary to August 2018. Of the 20 students, fly multiple iterations system, the program will continue cost of full-flight simulators. two washed out, and one destined for to look at other new technologies to F-16 training opted to come back for before they enhance the training system. “The 1,000 flight hours or zero some T-38 training before going back are actually flying technologies could apply to any skill time—you get the same ex- to the F-16. The second course, in Jan- set that is complex to learn,” he says. perience,” says Riley. uary-August 2019, featured students in the plane.” “With the students under the VR “Through PTN, the stu- and instructors from the U.S. Air headset, they can do an entire walk dent-centered learning is Force, Air National Guard, Navy and Riley says. “The flight model didn’t fly around an airplane in life-size and focusing on not only how RAF, while the 2020 iteration brings in like the real airplane, and the system scale; if they want to see the electrical you learn as a student but the first Marine Corps student. would crash if you opened one window system, you can remove the outside also what your background The U.S. Army, also inspired by too many.” skin of the aircraft,” he explains. is, what your capabilities PTN, revealed plans last year to in- In the latest version, many of the Riley says he is encouraged by in- are, and then harnessing troduce VR simulators at its training software bugs have been ironed out, dustry’s interest in the PTN program, that,” he adds. “The whole facility at Fort Rucker, Alabama. flight models have been improved, and with some big vendors now working point of this is to figure out In the latest iteration of PTN, the moves are underway to increase the on developing “ITDs of their own,” he the learning style of each program is using T-6Bs loaned from level of data analytics. notes. “I know what we’re doing is the individual and tailor it to the U.S. Navy with advanced cockpits Agreements with the Air Force right way . . . but it is probably going their need.” that PTN modified with an avionics Research Laboratory and NASA are to be something totally different five Supporting the new system designed specifically for the paving the way for the use of algo - years from today,” he adds. approach is the use of so- curriculum. rithms to monitor student biomet- The third phase of PTN began in called immersive training “In the initial stages, the systems rics, potentially allowing instructors January and is expected to run until DAN HAWKINS/U.S. AIR FORCE devices (ITD), essentially were exploratory and very buggy,” to understand when the students July-August of 2020. c high-specification but com- mercially available gaming computers New Technologies Enable Students equipped with high-definition virtual reality (VR) goggles. To Achieve More per Flight Hour The PTN students have access to 30 of the devices and can use them > THIRD ITERATION OF USAF PILOT TRAINING NEXT IS UNDERWAY throughout the course, unlike with the Take part in the Aerospace Innovation Forum! high-fidelity and costly simulators nor- > U.S. AIR FORCE, AIR NATIONAL GUARD, NAVY AND MARINE CORPS mally associated with military training. AND ROYAL AIR FORCE PILOTS ARE ENROLLED “The high-fidelity full-flight simu- lators provide high-quality training, April 20 – 21, 2020 | Montréal, Québec Tony Osborne Los Angeles and London but they are also high-demand, Palais des congrès de Montréal low-density,” says Riley. “With the n experimental U.S. Air Force the scripting of pilot academics and ITDs, you are providing high-demand, pilot training scheme is look- the introduction of new synthetic high-density, and so now, at any point Aing beyond conventional flight training technology, explains Lt. Col. if a student is struggling with a con- Take part in one of the largest get-togethers of the global simulators and classroom academics Ryan Riley, commander of Detach- cept, they can jump into an ITD.” in a bid to produce better pilots. ment 24, the PTN experimental train- Using the ITDs, the trainees can aerospace industry in North America! Air Education and Training Com- ing unit at Joint Base San Anto - practice maneuvers and procedures mand’s Pilot Training Next (PTN) pro- nio-Randolph in Texas. many times before they step into real Bfifififififihfifihfififififioffififififififiusfifiy-fifififififigfifivfififififififiofififioffifihfifiwofififi’sfifiofififififiosfififififi gram, now in its third iteration, has the “Most military training, whether it aircraft. potential to transform military flight is at a technical school for aircraft “The students will never do some- fififififififis,fiffififiufififigfikfiyfiofififisfififikfifisfifififififiofiffifififififisfiofifisfififififigfifififihfififis,fififififiufififigfi training. While it is primarily aimed at maintenance, firefighting or becoming thing for the first time in flight; they AfifiosfififififiDfigfififififiShfiffi,fiEfifififififififififiAfififiTfififisfiofifi,fiNfiwfiSfifififififififififififiyfifiofifi. producing a better pilot, more readily a pilot . . . does not [provide] access to are going to fly multiple iterations be- equipped for new-generation aircraft, much of the academic content; it is fore they are actually flying in the • it could also be used to train them doled out through a script or time - plane,” says Lt. Col. Robert Knapp, fi 1,200fifififififififififififis REGISTER NOW at more cheaply and quickly than ever. line,” Riley says. Detachment 24’s operations officer. •fi 100fifififififififififiofifififisfififikfifis https://www.aeromontreal.ca/aerospace- Two phases of PTN have already But PTN provides the students The students get the same amount of innovation-forum-2020.html successfully delivered pilot graduates with early access to training content flight time, he notes. “We are just re- •fi 1,400fiB2Bfififififififigs to training units for fighters, bombers prior to the beginning of a course, al- distributing the focus of the learn- and air mobility aircraft, and what was lowing them to learn at their own pace ing,” he adds. a largely Air Force-driven program with a learning management system “The students are better prepared Offifififififififififififififififififififi has now widened to include pilots from that prepares them for tests. and get a lot more out of every flight the Air National Guard, Navy, Marine “We produce over 1,000 pilots every hour. . . . [It is] much more valuable Corps and UK Royal Air Force (RAF). year in the U.S. Air Force, and regard- than the traditional system,” Riley says. At its heart are major changes to less of their background—if you have The PTN courses have the students

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 31 ROTORCRAFT

Bell Achieves Electric cally actuated anti-torque controls, the pedals now provide commands Anti-Torque Flight First to a fly-by-wire system that controls the output of the four fans. The air- > EDAT DEMONSTRATOR IS MODIFIED BELL 429 LIGHT TWIN cooled fan motors are powered by a liquid-cooled generator running off > GENERATOR AND MOTORS SUPPLIED BY SAFRAN the aircraft’s two Pratt & Whitney Canada PW207 turbines. Wires con- Tony Osborne London necting the generator with the motors run down the tail boom, where the tail ell has been quietly flight-testing erating costs. But in the last few years, rotor shaft once sat. an electric anti-torque system in noise has become an ever-increasing The motors and generators are Ba technology demonstration that concern, and that has put pressure on provided by Safran, which has also could be a building block for its work our engineering team,” says Sinusas. worked on the company’s Nexus on electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing Most helicopter noise is caused by eVTOL platform. (eVTOL) mobility systems. the interaction between the main ro- The fixed-pitch, variable-speed fans The company’s Electrically Distrib- tor and the tail rotor, so using ducted are capable of operating in both for- uted Anti-Torque (EDAT) testbed is a anti-torque systems can reduce the ward and reverse directions, depend- highly modified Model 429 twin-engine noise levels. ing on the pilot’s pedal inputs. light helicopter that uses four fixed- Such ducted systems are not new; Having four fans also boosts redun- pitch electrically driven fans mounted after all, Airbus’ fenestron dates back dancy. Although not yet tested in flight, in the vertical stabilizer, replacing the to the 1960s. But the use of an electric ground tests have indicated that the conventional tail rotor. system means that when the helicop- pilots would still have some level of an- ti-torque performance even if three of A fly-by-wire system controls the anti-torque the four fans were inoperable. Tail ro- system, fed by input from the pilot’s pedals. tor failure on a conventional helicopter can be dangerous, if not catastrophic. Another factor is responsiveness, says Sinusas. “A single large fan or two medium fans are going to experience rotational inertia, so it is going to be less responsive,” he notes, prompting engi- neers to adopt the quad configuration. Prior to flight-testing, the company established a systems integration lab- oratory to test EDAT before installa- tion, but the team has found it easy to make adjustments to the system once installed on the aircraft. “We have already had several opti- BELL HELICOPTER mizations and changes, just based on Although the rotorcraft industry has ter is not requiring the maximum an- feedback from pilots, and it is much been exploring the potential of electric ti-torque thrust, the rotational speed quicker to do than with a mechanical anti-torque systems, Bell’s EDAT is the of the fans can be reduced, lowering tip system,” says Sinusas. first to make it to flight, with testing speeds and noise levels. The company Several OEMs have studied the beginning in full public gaze—but would not reveal specific noise levels potential of electric anti-torque sys- seemingly unnoticed—last May. with the EDAT, but recorded data tems. Leonardo Helicopters tested a The EDAT only came to light when a “shows that it is significantly quieter modified AW139 tail rotor as part of a video appeared on social media of the than a conventional 429,” Sinusas says. research program funded through the testbed hovering near Bell’s Mirabel, In terms of safety, conventional tail European Union Clean Sky 1 initiative, Quebec, facility, showing the distinc- rotors have always been a hazard, and an electric fan-based anti-torque tive quad-fan configuration. particularly while the aircraft is on system featured in Bell’s FC-X con- The largely self-funded research, the ground with engines running. The cept rotorcraft was unveiled in 2017 which also received financial support EDAT’s anti-torque system, however, (AW&ST March 26-April 8, 2018, p. 29). in the form of grants provided by the can be shut down while the main rotor The next steps will see flight-enve- Ottawa government in 2018, is pri- is still turning. And there may be op- lope expansion of the EDAT as well marily in response to customer calls erating-cost benefits as well: Eliminat- as further optimization, particularly for greater safety and reduced noise ing complex tail rotor gearboxes and in terms of weight. levels, says Eric Sinusas, EDAT pro- shafts removes the need for inspecting “We do see it as a steppingstone gram manager and program director and maintaining them. to the fully electric aircraft,” says for light aircraft. But fitment of the EDAT has re - Sinusas. “We feel like it should make “Customers have been asking us to quired significant modifications from the certification paths for these tech- do more about safety and the direct op- nose to tail. Rather than mechani- nologies easier.” c

32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST ROTORCRAFT SPACE > OneWeb’s growing network p. 34 Starliner’s hard lesson for Boeing p. 35

Bell Achieves Electric cally actuated anti-torque controls, not only Blue Origin—its rocket engine supplier—but also the pedals now provide commands SpaceX and Northrop Grumman. Anti-Torque Flight First to a fly-by-wire system that controls Powering Up Whatever the outcome, Blue Origin is confident its $200 the output of the four fans. The air- million-plus investment in the new rocket factory is war- > EDAT DEMONSTRATOR IS MODIFIED BELL 429 LIGHT TWIN cooled fan motors are powered by a BLUE ORIGIN OPENS ALABAMA ENGINE FACTORY ranted. “As we’ve said since the beginning of New Glenn, liquid-cooled generator running off > our business case closes with commercial customers,” CEO > GENERATOR AND MOTORS SUPPLIED BY SAFRAN the aircraft’s two Pratt & Whitney > SATURN V TEST STAND BEING REFURBISHED Bob Smith tells Aviation Week. “While we are dedicated to Canada PW207 turbines. Wires con- being a national security space provider, and we’re going to ULA TO RECEIVE TWO BE-4s IN MAY Tony Osborne London necting the generator with the motors > do everything . . . to be part of that, it’s not going to change run down the tail boom, where the tail what we do in terms of our development of New Glenn.” ell has been quietly flight-testing erating costs. But in the last few years, rotor shaft once sat. Irene Klotz Huntsville, Alabama With BE-4 engines part of two Air Force launch service an electric anti-torque system in noise has become an ever-increasing The motors and generators are proposals, Smith adds: “We are highly confident we are Ba technology demonstration that concern, and that has put pressure on provided by Safran, which has also lue Origin founder Jeff Bezos likes to talk about a going to be one of the national security providers for these could be a building block for its work our engineering team,” says Sinusas. worked on the company’s Nexus future where millions of people are living and work- engines.” on electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing Most helicopter noise is caused by eVTOL platform. Bing in space. But in present day terms, that comes New Glenn will fly with seven BE-4s, providing 3.85 mil- (eVTOL) mobility systems. the interaction between the main ro- The fixed-pitch, variable-speed fans down to big-ticket construction projects, building and test- lion lb. of thrust at liftoff. Blue plans to recover and refly The company’s Electrically Distrib- tor and the tail rotor, so using ducted are capable of operating in both for- ing rockets and executing a solid business plan that charts New Glenn’s first stage and is designing the BE-4 for 25 uted Anti-Torque (EDAT) testbed is a anti-torque systems can reduce the ward and reverse directions, depend- a path to profitability. reflights with minimal refurbishment between launches. highly modified Model 429 twin-engine noise levels. ing on the pilot’s pedal inputs. To that end, Kent, Washington-based Blue Origin un- Development of the BE-4 began quietly in 2011. Original- light helicopter that uses four fixed- Such ducted systems are not new; Having four fans also boosts redun- veiled its latest asset: a 350,000-ft.2 (32,500-m2) factory ly intended solely for Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket pro- pitch electrically driven fans mounted after all, Airbus’ fenestron dates back dancy. Although not yet tested in flight, and office complex in Huntsville, Alabama. The facility is gram, ULA joined the effort in 2014 as it looked to replace in the vertical stabilizer, replacing the to the 1960s. But the use of an electric ground tests have indicated that the close to NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center—where Blue the Russian-made RD-180 engines on its workhorse Atlas V conventional tail rotor. system means that when the helicop- pilots would still have some level of an- will conduct engine testing—and to United Launch Alliance rockets—a response to trade sanctions following Russia’s ti-torque performance even if three of invasion of Ukraine’s Crime- A fly-by-wire system controls the anti-torque the four fans were inoperable. Tail ro- an Peninsula. Unlike previous system, fed by input from the pilot’s pedals. tor failure on a conventional helicopter Blue Origin is building an engine test site large engines, the BE-4 uses can be dangerous, if not catastrophic. for BE-4 and BE-3U engines at Marshall liquefied natural gas as fuel Another factor is responsiveness, rather than kerosene, to cut Space Flight Center to supplement says Sinusas. “A single large fan or two costs and improve reusability. medium fans are going to experience its current site in West Texas (pictured). Using an oxygen-rich staged rotational inertia, so it is going to be less combustion cycle, the BE-4 is responsive,” he notes, prompting engi- capable of producing 550,000 neers to adopt the quad configuration. lb. of thrust with deep throttle Prior to flight-testing, the company capability for landings. established a systems integration lab- Speaking to reporters after oratory to test EDAT before installa- a ribbon-cutting ceremony to tion, but the team has found it easy to mark the factory’s opening, make adjustments to the system once Blue Origin officials said they installed on the aircraft. expect to complete BE-4 de - “We have already had several opti- velopment work in Kent in the BELL HELICOPTER mizations and changes, just based on next 3-4 months then move into Although the rotorcraft industry has ter is not requiring the maximum an- feedback from pilots, and it is much engine prequalification over been exploring the potential of electric ti-torque thrust, the rotational speed quicker to do than with a mechanical the summer. The first of three anti-torque systems, Bell’s EDAT is the of the fans can be reduced, lowering tip system,” says Sinusas. final development engines is first to make it to flight, with testing speeds and noise levels. The company Several OEMs have studied the about to begin testing. beginning in full public gaze—but would not reveal specific noise levels potential of electric anti-torque sys- BLUE ORIGIN By the time prequalification seemingly unnoticed—last May. with the EDAT, but recorded data tems. Leonardo Helicopters tested a (ULA), which is buying Blue’s BE-4 engines for its new Vul- begins, the overall design of the engine will be complete, and The EDAT only came to light when a “shows that it is significantly quieter modified AW139 tail rotor as part of a can rocket. Blue Origin also will outfit its own New Glenn work will move on to fine-tune valves, set spring loads and video appeared on social media of the than a conventional 429,” Sinusas says. research program funded through the rockets with BE-4 engines. make other adjustments. Particular attention will be paid to testbed hovering near Bell’s Mirabel, In terms of safety, conventional tail European Union Clean Sky 1 initiative, The factory, which opened on Feb. 17, stands empty for bearings and materials in high-temperature areas to ensure Quebec, facility, showing the distinc- rotors have always been a hazard, and an electric fan-based anti-torque now, but over the next several weeks equipment for pro - the engines will be able to meet reusability requirements. tive quad-fan configuration. particularly while the aircraft is on system featured in Bell’s FC-X con- duction and assembly of the BE-4 and BE-3U engines— A pair of what Blue calls “flight readiness” engines, pro- The largely self-funded research, the ground with engines running. The cept rotorcraft was unveiled in 2017 which will be used to power New Glenn’s upper stage—is duced in Kent, are due to be delivered to ULA in May for inte- which also received financial support EDAT’s anti-torque system, however, (AW&ST March 26-April 8, 2018, p. 29). due to arrive. By 2022-23, Blue Origin plans to be manu- gration tests with the Vulcan rocket. Production engines will in the form of grants provided by the can be shut down while the main rotor The next steps will see flight-enve- facturing 42 engines per year at Huntsville—half BE-4s arrive later in the year. The Huntsville factory meanwhile will Ottawa government in 2018, is pri- is still turning. And there may be op- lope expansion of the EDAT as well and half BE-3Us. focus on producing a “site certification” engine this summer. marily in response to customer calls erating-cost benefits as well: Eliminat- as further optimization, particularly Most of the BE-4 production in Huntsville will be for Blue Origin still has several large construction projects for greater safety and reduced noise ing complex tail rotor gearboxes and in terms of weight. ULA’s Vulcan, which is not initially designed to be reusable. on its plate as well. The company is refurbishing the Mar- levels, says Eric Sinusas, EDAT pro- shafts removes the need for inspecting “We do see it as a steppingstone Vulcan uses two BE-4s to power its first stage. shall Space Flight Center’s historic 4670 Saturn V test gram manager and program director and maintaining them. to the fully electric aircraft,” says ULA’s business case rests heavily on winning one of two stand so it can be used for static test firings of the BE-4 for light aircraft. But fitment of the EDAT has re - Sinusas. “We feel like it should make pending U.S. Air Force contracts to launch national secu- and BE-3U. The company also is building a launch site at “Customers have been asking us to quired significant modifications from the certification paths for these tech- rity spacecraft. The competition pits ULA, which currently Cape Canaveral AFS in Florida to prepare for New Glenn’s do more about safety and the direct op- nose to tail. Rather than mechani- nologies easier.” c handles the bulk of the military’s launch business, against inaugural flight in 2021. c

32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 33 SPACE

With Successful Launch, OneWeb Network Grows To 40 > NEXT LAUNCH SCHEDULED FOR MID-MARCH > RIVAL SPACEX STILL WORKING ON SPECTRUM RIGHTS BEYOND U.S.

Irene Klotz Washington

ith 300 Starlink satellites in orbit, it may appear that SpaceX is well ahead of the Wcompetition in a quest to build high-speed, low-latency global internet networks, but to OneWeb founder Greg Wyler it all comes down to spectrum. “The number of satellites isn’t important. It’s all about spectrum rights,” Wyler says. “How many cell phone companies go and build towers before they ac- tually have the right to use them? You must have the frequencies first; otherwise, how do you design and develop the systems?” On that front, OneWeb is in the pole position, with clearance from the U.S. Federal Communications Commission and the International Telecommunica- tion Union (which allocates global radio spectrum and satellite orbits) to operate in Ka (20-30 GHz) and Ku (11-14 GHz) frequency bands to provide global internet connectivity. The company has completed or is in the process of building half of its planned 42 ground stations world- wide and is working to secure landing rights to bring data down on a country-by-county basis. OneWeb also now has 40 spacecraft in orbit and another 34 satel- lites headed to the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakh-

stan for launch in mid-March. ONEWEB/ARIANESPACE With monthly launches slated aboard Russian Soyuz rockets flying from Baikonur, Russia’s Vos - A batch of 34 OneWeb satellites inside a Ruag-built dispenser, tochny Cosmodrome and Arianespace’s Kourou, was lowered on top of a Soyuz Fregat upper stage prior to launch. French Guiana, launch sites, OneWeb plans to begin customer demonstrations by the end of 2020, followed by OneWeb Satellites, a joint venture of OneWeb and Airbus full commercial service for maritime, aviation, government Defense and Space, built the satellites, the first from a new and industry users worldwide in 2021. factory in Florida located near NASA’s Kennedy Space Last March, Arianespace and OneWeb added flights Center. for the qualification launch of the Ariane 62 booster, tar- OneWeb’s Satellite Operations Centers, located in Vir- geted to fly at the end of 2020, and two additional Ariane ginia and London, began contacting the spacecraft as they 6 rockets—either in the 62 version, which can accommo- were released into initial orbits 280 mi. above Earth and date 36 satellites, or the 64 version, which can handle 78 began firing their plasma thrusters to maneuver to their spacecraft—starting in 2023. Each OneWeb satellite weighs operational orbits. about 325 lb. OneWeb and SpaceX are the first of several companies Operating from near-polar orbits approximately 745 mi. planning to offer high-speed, low-latency internet services (1,200 km) above Earth, OneWeb needs about one-quarter via satellite. SpaceX already has delivered 300 Starlink as many satellites as SpaceX’s lower-altitude Starlinks to satellites into orbit but does not as yet have authorization achieve global coverage, according to Wyler. to operate beyond the U.S. On Feb. 7, a Soyuz 2-1b rocket, outfitted with a Fregat In January, SpaceX was added to the Australian Com- upper stage, lifted off from Baikonur at 2:42 a.m. local time munications and Media Authority’s Foreign Space Objects to add 34 OneWeb satellites to an initial six spacecraft Determination list, a preliminary step for applying for launched a year ago. OneWeb did not fly prototypes. ground station licenses in Australia to communicate with The new spacecraft were released, two at a time, in the Starlink satellites. BBQ-roll maneuvers from their payload dispenser starting SpaceX declined to comment on the status of its requests 71 min. after launch and continuing for more than 2.5 hr. to operate in countries beyond the U.S. c

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE

With Successful Launch, Starliner Gives Boeing a Hard Lesson transportation system. SpaceX is on track for a crewed flight test of its OneWeb Network in How Not To Verify Software Dragon capsule this spring. “We need as a nation—and we have Grows To 40 > 1 MILLION LINES OF CODE TO BE REVERIFIED an obligation—to have multiple pro- viders that can get us access to low > NEXT LAUNCH SCHEDULED FOR MID-MARCH > NASA LAUNCHES SAFETY ASSESSMENT OF BOEING Earth orbit,” NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine told reporters on Feb. RIVAL SPACEX STILL WORKING ON SPECTRUM > Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral 7. “That’s part of what the Commer- RIGHTS BEYOND U.S. cial Crew program is all about. We are oeing’s CST-100 Starliner, a re- rected, “it would have led to errone- working very hard to understand what Irene Klotz Washington usable capsule designed to ferry ous thruster fi ring and uncontrolled the [Starliner] anomalies are, remedy Bastronauts and fare-paying pas- motion during service module separa- those and move forward.” ith 300 Starlink satellites in orbit, it may sengers into low Earth orbit, may look tion from deorbit, with the potential NASA and Boeing agree it is too appear that SpaceX is well ahead of the like previous generations of spacecraft, for catastrophic spacecraft failure,” early to say if a second uncrewed Wcompetition in a quest to build high-speed, but appearances can be deceiving. says ASAP member Paul Hill, a for- Starliner test fl ight will be required low-latency global internet networks, but to OneWeb “We are no longer building hard- mer NASA fl ight director. prior to fl ying astronauts, a mission founder Greg Wyler it all comes down to spectrum. ware in which we install a modicum The independent review team as- that had been targeted for this year. “The number of satellites isn’t important. It’s all of enabling software,” says Patricia sessing the Starliner’s Orbital Flight Nor would Boeing comment about about spectrum rights,” Wyler says. “How many cell Sanders, who chairs the long-stand- Test (OFT) is not expected to com- how long it would take to reverify phone companies go and build towers before they ac- ing NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory plete its work until the end of Febru- the Starliner’s entire fl ight software, tually have the right to use them? You must have the Panel (ASAP) . “We are actually build- ary, but NASA and Boeing said on about 1 million lines of code. frequencies first; otherwise, how do you design and ing software systems, which we wrap Feb. 7 that the panel had found multi- “On the OFT mission, we suc- develop the systems?” up in enabling hardware, yet we have On that front, OneWeb is in the pole position, with not matured to where we are uni- The Starliner was hoisted clearance from the U.S. Federal Communications formly applying rigorous systems Commission and the International Telecommunica- engineering principles to the design atop a United Launch Alliance tion Union (which allocates global radio spectrum and of that software.” Atlas V in preparation for satellite orbits) to operate in Ka (20-30 GHz) and Ku Case in point: The Starliner, which its orbital  ight test. (11-14 GHz) frequency bands to provide global internet returned from an abbreviated fl ight connectivity. test rife with potential software prob- The company has completed or is in the process of lems. One error manifested shortly building half of its planned 42 ground stations world- after launch when the capsule missed wide and is working to secure landing rights to bring an orbit insertion burn to reach the data down on a country-by-county basis. OneWeb also International Space Station (ISS) be- now has 40 spacecraft in orbit and another 34 satel- cause its timer was set 11 hr. ahead of lites headed to the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakh- the actual mission elapsed time. stan for launch in mid-March. ONEWEB/ARIANESPACE The problem was compounded by With monthly launches slated aboard Russian some type of interference—still under Soyuz rockets flying from Baikonur, Russia’s Vos - A batch of 34 OneWeb satellites inside a Ruag-built dispenser, investigation—that prevented fl ight tochny Cosmodrome and Arianespace’s Kourou, was lowered on top of a Soyuz Fregat upper stage prior to launch. controllers from communicating COR SON/NASA French Guiana, launch sites, OneWeb plans to begin with the Starliner via NASA’s Track- customer demonstrations by the end of 2020, followed by OneWeb Satellites, a joint venture of OneWeb and Airbus ing and Data Relay Satellites. By the full commercial service for maritime, aviation, government Defense and Space, built the satellites, the first from a new time communications were restored, and industry users worldwide in 2021. factory in Florida located near NASA’s Kennedy Space the Starliner had expended so much Last March, Arianespace and OneWeb added flights Center. fuel firing steering thrusters that for the qualification launch of the Ariane 62 booster, tar- OneWeb’s Satellite Operations Centers, located in Vir- managers decided to pass on the ISS ple areas where the software verifi ca- cessfully exercised about 66% of the geted to fly at the end of 2020, and two additional Ariane ginia and London, began contacting the spacecraft as they docking and salvage what they could tion process failed. scripts that we have, but we’re not 6 rockets—either in the 62 version, which can accommo- were released into initial orbits 280 mi. above Earth and of the flight demonstration, includ- “The process broke down in many taking that at face value,” says John date 36 satellites, or the 64 version, which can handle 78 began firing their plasma thrusters to maneuver to their ing a successful deorbit, reentry and areas,” says NASA’s spacefl ight chief Mulholland, Boeing Starliner pro- spacecraft—starting in 2023. Each OneWeb satellite weighs operational orbits. parachute landing in New Mexico. Douglas Loverro. “We don’t know how gram manager. “We are going to have about 325 lb. OneWeb and SpaceX are the first of several companies But the Starliner’s troubles were many software errors we have. We don’t our team go back and fully verify the Operating from near-polar orbits approximately 745 mi. planning to offer high-speed, low-latency internet services more serious than had been suspected. know if we have just two or we have correct implementation of all the soft- (1,200 km) above Earth, OneWeb needs about one-quarter via satellite. SpaceX already has delivered 300 Starlink During its Feb. 6 meeting, the safety many hundred.” The fault is not entire- ware, in partnership with NASA.” as many satellites as SpaceX’s lower-altitude Starlinks to satellites into orbit but does not as yet have authorization panel disclosed a second software error ly Boeing’s, Loverro adds. “Our NASA For now, NASA is counting on achieve global coverage, according to Wyler. to operate beyond the U.S. that was discovered as Boeing engi- oversight was insu˜ cient—that’s ob- SpaceX to continue the program’s mo- On Feb. 7, a Soyuz 2-1b rocket, outfitted with a Fregat In January, SpaceX was added to the Australian Com- neers pored over lines of code prior to vious . . . and good learning for us.” mentum—particularly with ISS sta˜ ng upper stage, lifted off from Baikonur at 2:42 a.m. local time munications and Media Authority’s Foreign Space Objects the Starliner’s deorbit on Dec. 22. The NASA also launched an organiza- ramping down as NASA’s contract for to add 34 OneWeb satellites to an initial six spacecraft Determination list, a preliminary step for applying for error misconfi gured a thruster, which tional safety assessment into Boeing crew ferry fl ights aboard Russian Soyuz launched a year ago. OneWeb did not fly prototypes. ground station licenses in Australia to communicate with could have caused the service module in an attempt to root out potential capsules comes to an end. Currently, the The new spacecraft were released, two at a time, in the Starlink satellites. to bump into the crew capsule follow- systemic issues. The agency last year last U.S.-purchased seat is reserved for BBQ-roll maneuvers from their payload dispenser starting SpaceX declined to comment on the status of its requests ing separation after the deorbit burn. conducted a similar review of SpaceX, veteran NASA astronaut Chris Cassidy, 71 min. after launch and continuing for more than 2.5 hr. to operate in countries beyond the U.S. c If the anomaly had not been cor- which is developing a second crew who is scheduled to launch in April. c

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 3 AIR MOBILITY > Airbus BWB demo p. 39 USAF commercial refueling p. 42 A400M costs p. 44 Makeover of USAF mobility fleet p. 45 COOPERATIVE BENEFIT

> SIGNIFICANT PROMISE BUT SUBSTANTIAL CHALLENGES FOR WAKE SURFING > AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS, PLANNING TOOLS AND OPERATING PROCEDURES ARE KEY

Graham Warwick Orlando, Florida nique. Instead, to maintain steady, level fl ight within the updraft from the wake When Airbus in November announced it would vortex, the aircraft must pitch nose- demonstrate energy-saving automated formation down so it is descending relative to the upward moving air. The lift vector, nor- fl ight in 2020 using two A350s, and Boeing subse- mally vertical, is tilted slightly forward. quently revealed it had fl ight-tested the concept in This counters some of the drag, requir- 2018 with two 777s, it was a signal that a long-known ing less thrust to maintain horizontal ONE IN A SERIES fl ight. This reduces fuel consumption. technique could soon be ready for prime time. The second is traditional formation fl ying. Military aircraft fl y in close for- Air-wake surfi ng for e‚ ciency has The fuel savings are not small. We mation, a few wingspans apart. Com- a long pedigree of consistent research have the capability. But the regula- mercial aircraft would fl y in extended results that show an aircraft can save tions say don’t do it. So the next step formation, up to 1 nm apart, on what fuel by fl ying within the updraft cre- is getting the regulations changed.” the industry prefers to call “cooperative ated by the wingtip vortices shed by With the benefits firmly estab- trajectories.” This greater distance—10 another—reclaiming energy left in lished, Boeing’s test in 2018 with its or more wingspans for commercial air- the atmosphere by the lead aircraft’s 777F ecoDemonstrator fl ying behind craft—reduces the fuel-saving benefi t lift-induced drag. another FedEx 777F and Airbus’ but eases the workload on the pilots . Since researchers at Germany’s Fello’fl y demonstration this year are While the physics of wake surfi ng are Technical University of Braunschweig developing systems and procedures on a fi rm footing, there are many tech- proved the concept in fl ight in 1984, airlines can use to safely and robustly nical and operational questions still to achieving a 15% power reduction by take advantage of wake surfi ng. be answered. In a formation, only the manually fl ying two Dornier Do 28s “We have done enough tests to be trail aircraft sees a fuel saving. “Who wingtip behind wingtip, multiple confi dent we can do this with commer- gets preference? Is that an airline prob- demonstrations with diŽ erent aircraft cial aircraft,” says Sipe. “We think we lem or an ATC problem?” asks Sipe. types have shown fuel savings from will do it fi rst with cargo aircraft, and Nelson Brown, a test engineer who wake surfi ng ranging from 8-18%. we are working with Airbus on the reg- worked on NASA Armstrong Flight So why are operators, commercial ulatory aspects,” he told the American Research Center’s Automated Coop- or military, not already using the tech- Institute of Aeronautics and Astronau- erative Trajectories (ACT) fl ight-test nique to improve e‚ ciency? And why tics SciTech conference in January. project in 2017, cites the example of ex- is it being looked at now? One reason Attention is shifting to the next isting airline agreements to exchange is the availability of the avionics re- steps: developing the safety case and pilot jump-seat rides and suggests a quired to enable automated wake surf- taking it to the regulators to get the “benefit today, pay back tomorrow” ing, particularly automatic dependent rules changed; agreeing on the pro- marketplace could emerge. surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B). cedures between aircraft, operators There is also the question of how “Why now? ADS-B is now mandato- and air tra‚ c control (ATC) that will big the fuel savings will be in actual ry in the U.S., so we have the avionics enable wake surfi ng; and developing operations. Tests of a prototype au- to make this possible,” says Al Sipe, the business case for implementation. tomated wake-surfing system con- chief engineer for aviation e‚ ciency There are two things wake surfi ng is ducted by DARPA, the U.S. Air Force at Boeing. “Why are we not doing it? not. The fi rst is a drag reduction tech- Research Laboratory and Boeing in

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AIR MOBILITY > Airbus BWB demo p. 39 USAF commercial refueling p. 42 A400M costs p. 44 Makeover of USAF mobility fleet p. 45

fl ight,” Tristan Flanzer, Boeing fl ight have been approved. Unless they are controls engineer, told the conference. ex-military, commercial pilots will not “The aircraft are not in formation all have experienced fl ying in extended COOPERATIVE the time, so accounting for other phases formation, so training is important. of fl ight, such as departure and landing, The premission phase begins the savings may be reduced to 3%,” he months in advance, with strategic says. There is then the matter of what planning to adjust fl ight schedules and fraction of an airline’s fleet will be in maximize the opportunities for coop- BENEFIT a formation at any time. “If half of all erative fl ying. Once aircraft pairs and fl ights are paired oˆ , the system level schedule times have been identifi ed, saving is 1.5%. So the real benefi t is an detailed fl ight plans are produced for SIGNIFICANT PROMISE BUT order of magnitude lower,” says Flanzer. each aircraft. Prior to departure of the > Earlier Airbus wake-sur ng tests This is still a signifi cant saving, but fi rst aircraft, the crews of both will SUBSTANTIAL CHALLENGES with an A350 behind an A380 wake surfi ng for eŽ ciency is not just conduct a prefl ight briefi ng of lead/ FOR WAKE SURFING delivered a 12% fuel saving. a technical challenge. “There needs trail responsibilities and rendezvous to be a clear value proposition for the information. Both crews will monitor AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS, PLANNING airlines, a well-defi ned conops [con- the continued viability of cooperative > cept of operations] to understand the operations up to departure. TOOLS AND OPERATING technical and operational needs, a The aircraft may be leaving from

PROCEDURES ARE KEY AIRBS provably safe system architecture and diˆ erent airports, at diˆ erent times, a plan to certify the system,” he says. so their departures must be closely co- Boeing is proposing a conops with ordinated. “Any delay is most eŽ cient- Graham Warwick Orlando, Florida nique. Instead, to maintain steady, level 2012-13 using a pair of C-17 airlifters four distinct phases: premission, de- ly absorbed while the second aircraft fl ight within the updraft from the wake achieved a 10% fuel saving over more parture and single fl ight, cooperative is still on the ground,” says Flanzer. When Airbus in November announced it would vortex, the aircraft must pitch nose- than 90 min. in extended formation . trajectory operations, and split and Current winds aloft strongly infl uence demonstrate energy-saving automated formation down so it is descending relative to the But 10% is a best case and will not post-flight. It assumes: aircraft are achievable formation benefi ts, and air- upward moving air. The lift vector, nor- be achieved all of the time. “If we can equipped with upgraded autopilot and lines will have to be fl exible on departure fl ight in 2020 using two A350s, and Boeing subse- mally vertical, is tilted slightly forward. argue that the trail aircraft in a for- autothrottle, ADS-B “In” and flight times to get a wind-optimal routing for quently revealed it had fl ight-tested the concept in This counters some of the drag, requir- mation can see an 8% reduction in fuel deck alerting updates; pilots have a formation that avoids incurring a 2018 with two 777s, it was a signal that a long-known ing less thrust to maintain horizontal burn consistently; the pair will save been trained in manual recovery from large detour that costs fuel, Tobias ONE IN A SERIES fl ight. This reduces fuel consumption. approximately 4% during this phase of wake-induced upsets; and operations Mark, a researcher at German aero- technique could soon be ready for prime time. The second is traditional formation fl ying. Military aircraft fl y in close for- Air-wake surfi ng for e‚ ciency has The fuel savings are not small. We mation, a few wingspans apart. Com- Concept of Operations for Cooperative Trajectories a long pedigree of consistent research have the capability. But the regula- mercial aircraft would fl y in extended results that show an aircraft can save tions say don’t do it. So the next step formation, up to 1 nm apart, on what AT AN OOATIV fuel by fl ying within the updraft cre- is getting the regulations changed.” the industry prefers to call “cooperative IN IT TATOI OATION IT ated by the wingtip vortices shed by With the benefits firmly estab- trajectories.” This greater distance—10 JOIN/FLIGHT another—reclaiming energy left in lished, Boeing’s test in 2018 with its or more wingspans for commercial air- LNAV/VNAV MERGE OF TWO (FOT) SAVE SPLIT LNAV/VNAV the atmosphere by the lead aircraft’s 777F ecoDemonstrator fl ying behind craft—reduces the fuel-saving benefi t OWN NAVIGATION ATRK/XTRK CAPTURE VTRK CAPTURE WAKE CAPTURE CAPTURE FOT REF OWN NAVIGATION lift-induced drag. another FedEx 777F and Airbus’ but eases the workload on the pilots . Arrive at Initial Point ATRK = Capture 4,000 ft. ATRK = 4,000 ft. (behind) ATRK = 4,000 ft. (behind) ATRK = 4,000 ft. (behind) Depart FoT for ATC Since researchers at Germany’s Fello’fl y demonstration this year are While the physics of wake surfi ng are under ATC guidance, (behind) XTRK = 500 ft. (left/right) XTRK = Capture 200 ft. XTRK = Capture 500 ft. Separation Technical University of Braunschweig developing systems and procedures on a fi rm footing, there are many tech- 2,000 ft. vertical XTRK = Capture 500 ft. VTRK = Capture Lead (left/right) (left/right) proved the concept in fl ight in 1984, airlines can use to safely and robustly nical and operational questions still to separation (left/right) Altitude VTRK = Capture Wake VTRK = Capture Lead achieving a 15% power reduction by take advantage of wake surfi ng. be answered. In a formation, only the VTRK = Hold Altitude Altitude Altitude manually fl ying two Dornier Do 28s “We have done enough tests to be trail aircraft sees a fuel saving. “Who wingtip behind wingtip, multiple confi dent we can do this with commer- gets preference? Is that an airline prob- demonstrations with diŽ erent aircraft cial aircraft,” says Sipe. “We think we lem or an ATC problem?” asks Sipe. types have shown fuel savings from will do it fi rst with cargo aircraft, and Nelson Brown, a test engineer who wake surfi ng ranging from 8-18%. we are working with Airbus on the reg- worked on NASA Armstrong Flight So why are operators, commercial ulatory aspects,” he told the American Research Center’s Automated Coop- or military, not already using the tech- Institute of Aeronautics and Astronau- erative Trajectories (ACT) fl ight-test nique to improve e‚ ciency? And why tics SciTech conference in January. project in 2017, cites the example of ex- is it being looked at now? One reason Attention is shifting to the next isting airline agreements to exchange ALTITUDE PROFILES is the availability of the avionics re- steps: developing the safety case and pilot jump-seat rides and suggests a quired to enable automated wake surf- taking it to the regulators to get the “benefit today, pay back tomorrow” ing, particularly automatic dependent rules changed; agreeing on the pro- marketplace could emerge. NAV Lateral navigation surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B). cedures between aircraft, operators There is also the question of how VNAV Vertical navigation “Why now? ADS-B is now mandato- and air tra‚ c control (ATC) that will big the fuel savings will be in actual AT Along-track ry in the U.S., so we have the avionics enable wake surfi ng; and developing operations. Tests of a prototype au- T Cross-track to make this possible,” says Al Sipe, the business case for implementation. tomated wake-surfing system con- VT Vertical track chief engineer for aviation e‚ ciency There are two things wake surfi ng is ducted by DARPA, the U.S. Air Force AV Surfing Aircraft Vortices for Energy at Boeing. “Why are we not doing it? not. The fi rst is a drag reduction tech- Research Laboratory and Boeing in Source: oein

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 3 AIR MOBILITY

space center DLR, told the conference. maneuver. To avoid crossing the wake, for the actual wake-surfing phase, he Once both aircraft are airborne, their a prevention and recovery function can says, adding: “For other aspects of onboard flight-management systems or command the trail aircraft away from the join, it does provide enough accu- ground-based interval management is the wake to avoid upsets and loads. racy.” There are also ways to improve used to adjust speed and coordinate On reaching a preplanned point or augment ADS-B. arrival at the rendezvous point under on the route, the pair will split, the Accuracy of the wake prediction ATC-assured separation with 2,000 ft. lead aircraft notifying ATC, which could be increased by adding wind vertical spacing between the aircraft. reestablishes standard separation data to the information broadcast by The cooperative trajectory opera- between them. “[Cooperative trajecto- the lead aircraft, and a proposal to add tions phase has four subphases. The ry] operations will only be conducted these messages to the next standard first is merge, the transition from during the cruise phases of flight, so of ADS-B, Version 3, is on the table, ATC-assured horizontal separation of ATC-supportable separation must be says Sipe. Mode S Enhanced Surveil- 5-50 nm to station-keeping managed achieved at the latest by 150-200 nm lance (EHS) already has this informa- by the crew of the trail aircraft. Using from destination,” says Flanzer. tion, but the aircraft’s transponder data transmitted by the lead aircraft, The takeaways from this conops, he must be interrogated for the data, and the trail aircraft stabilizes approxi- says, include the need for tools for both normally only ground radars do this. mately 1 nm behind it and 500 ft. to strategic and detail mission planning, For Boeing’s 777F ecoDemonstrator the left or right of the predicted posi- the importance of ADS-B and of lever- flight test, Aviation Communication & tion of the lead aircraft’s wake vortices. aging existing interval management Surveillance Systems modified its traf- The two aircraft then fic collision alert system join, the crews informing (TCAS) to perform air- ATC they have assumed re- Surfing Aircraft Wakes borne interrogation of the sponsibility for separation for Energy lead aircraft for EHS data. and the lead aircraft taking The system sent ADS-B leadership of the flight. ATC and EHS data to a flight- then deals with the pair as a test laptop that hosted the flight of two operating within 051 wake prediction algorithm a 2,000-ft. block of altitude. on the trail aircraft. The lap- Now in stabilized forma- top then sent a command tion, the trail pilot engag- to the autopilot’s localizer es cooperative-trajectory control law, which was mode to begin wake capture used to keep the aircraft and tracking. Lead-aircraft on station relative to the data and own-ship informa- wake. “ADS-B plus TCAS tion is used to predict wake may work,” says Flanzer. position. With autopilot For maximum aerody- Source: DLR and autothrottle engaged, namic benefit, wake position the wake capture function moves the tools during the transition, and the re- must be known to within a few percent trail aircraft into the ideal position— quirement for new autopilot submodes. of wingspan, around 10 ft. for large com- about 200 ft. from the vortex—based The concept is based on predicting, mercial aircraft. This is beyond the 30-m on ride quality and fuel saving. rather than measuring, the wake posi- (100-ft.) accuracy normally assumed for The C-17 flights and NASA’s ACT tion. When the trail aircraft is follow- unaugmented GPS. If both aircraft are tests involving a pair of Gulfstream ing behind by 20 wingspans, or about viewing the same satellites, they can nav- GIIIs reported only “light chop” when 4,000 ft, the vortices shed by the lead igate relative to each other with much surfing the wake, but it is a trade be- can drift significantly. The rate at greater accuracy, but this would require tween ride quality and fuel saving. The which the wake sinks depends on the new ADS-B messages, and “we can’t crew can “turn the knob,” Brown says, lead’s type, weight and speed, while count on the aircraft in a formation al- surfing the wake more closely for fuel the rate at which it drifts depends ways seeing the same satellites,” he says. saving when passengers are awake, on winds aloft. Predicting position “We are going to need some way to sense but moving further away at night to requires data from the lead aircraft. position inside the wake,” says Sipe. improve ride quality while they sleep. “Absent a sensor to detect the wake, Despite the challenges that still There will also be some threshold of we have to use an aircraft-to-aircraft lie ahead, wake surfing for efficiency atmospheric turbulence beyond which data link,” says Flanzer. “ADS-B is ap- continues to show promise, for both wake surfing is not possible, he says. pealing because of its prevalence, but commercial and military operations. Once joined, the trail aircraft flies does it provide enough information and Maj. Will Guthrie, a U.S. Air Force Re- automatically, a situational-awareness resolution to predict the wake? And serve tanker pilot who is also a FedEx display showing the crew its position how do we provide enough integrity to pilot, says the cargo airline has several relative to both the lead aircraft and maintain safe separation?” The consen- aircraft flying in the same direction, its predicted wake. If the lead aircraft sus is that ADS-B alone is not adequate. to Los Angeles and San Francisco, needs to change speed, altitude or For the level of reliable wake predic- London and Paris, just minutes apart heading, the intent is transmitted to tion necessary for routine commercial every day. “There is no reason not to the trail aircraft, which may have to cooperative-trajectory operations, link up so the trailing aircraft can take move away from the wake during the ADS-B data alone is likely insufficient the benefit,” he told the conference.c

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AIR MOBILITY space center DLR, told the conference. maneuver. To avoid crossing the wake, for the actual wake-surfing phase, he Once both aircraft are airborne, their a prevention and recovery function can says, adding: “For other aspects of Maveric Move onboard flight-management systems or command the trail aircraft away from the join, it does provide enough accu- ground-based interval management is the wake to avoid upsets and loads. racy.” There are also ways to improve used to adjust speed and coordinate On reaching a preplanned point or augment ADS-B. > AIRBUS TARGETS BWB DEMO > CONCEPT OFFERS UP TO 20% arrival at the rendezvous point under on the route, the pair will split, the Accuracy of the wake prediction AT SINGLE-AISLE SECTOR BETTER EFFICIENCY THAN ATC-assured separation with 2,000 ft. lead aircraft notifying ATC, which could be increased by adding wind CURRENT SINGLE-AISLES vertical spacing between the aircraft. reestablishes standard separation data to the information broadcast by The cooperative trajectory opera- between them. “[Cooperative trajecto- the lead aircraft, and a proposal to add tions phase has four subphases. The ry] operations will only be conducted these messages to the next standard first is merge, the transition from during the cruise phases of flight, so of ADS-B, Version 3, is on the table, ATC-assured horizontal separation of ATC-supportable separation must be says Sipe. Mode S Enhanced Surveil- 5-50 nm to station-keeping managed achieved at the latest by 150-200 nm lance (EHS) already has this informa- Guy Norris Los Angeles by the crew of the trail aircraft. Using from destination,” says Flanzer. tion, but the aircraft’s transponder With a pronounced nose section data transmitted by the lead aircraft, The takeaways from this conops, he must be interrogated for the data, and and high-aspect-ratio wings, the the trail aircraft stabilizes approxi- says, include the need for tools for both normally only ground radars do this. lended wing body (BWB) confi g- mately 1 nm behind it and 500 ft. to strategic and detail mission planning, For Boeing’s 777F ecoDemonstrator urations potentially offer signifi- Maveric’s cross-section is optimized the left or right of the predicted posi- the importance of ADS-B and of lever- flight test, Aviation Communication & Bcant fuel savings over conventional for a larger pressurized-cabin volume. tion of the lead aircraft’s wake vortices. aging existing interval management Surveillance Systems modified its traf- tube-and-wing airliners, but practical devel- The two aircraft then fic collision alert system opment has proved so challenging that after join, the crews informing (TCAS) to perform air- three decades of study the industry has yet to ed and could lead to a larger-scale demon- ATC they have assumed re- Surfing Aircraft Wakes borne interrogation of the progress beyond subscale demonstrators. strator, says Dumont. sponsibility for separation for Energy lead aircraft for EHS data. Despite the hurdles, Airbus believes the technol- Designed specifi cally to evaluate fl ight con- and the lead aircraft taking The system sent ADS-B ogy is now available to enable the BWB’s success, trol systems adapted for delta-wing designs, fl ight leadership of the flight. ATC and EHS data to a flight- and at the Singapore Airshow on Feb. 10 it revealed tests with the model will be followed by a second then deals with the pair as a test laptop that hosted the that it has been secretly fl ight-testing an experimental round of studies to evaluate wider aspects of the con- flight of two operating within 051 wake prediction algorithm version of the fl ying-wing confi guration since mid-2019. fi guration including safety, manufacturability, airport a 2,000-ft. block of altitude. on the trail aircraft. The lap- Disclosure of the Maveric (Model Aircraft for Validation compatibility, maintenance and support. “Let’s be clear: Now in stabilized forma- top then sent a command and Experimentation of Robust Innovative Controls) tech- We are studying this as an option,” says Dumont. “We have tion, the trail pilot engag- to the autopilot’s localizer nology demonstrator comes amid growing signs that only already learned a lot, and tests have helped us understand es cooperative-trajectory control law, which was disruptive new airliner confi gurations will be capable of the fl ight behavior of this kind of confi guration in a real mode to begin wake capture used to keep the aircraft meeting the ambitious emission-reduction targets of the fl ight condition. So far, we have a green light, which is why and tracking. Lead-aircraft on station relative to the future. Over the next 30 years, Airbus aims to cut emis- we are unveiling it, and we are continuing with a more data and own-ship informa- wake. “ADS-B plus TCAS sions of nitrogen oxides by 90%, CO2 by 75% and noise by extensive study.” tion is used to predict wake may work,” says Flanzer. 65% compared to current aircraft. The BWB fl ying-wing confi guration, originally conceived position. With autopilot For maximum aerody- To get there, Airbus is exploring several radical con- by McDonnell Douglas in the late 1980s, o¦ ers potential Source: DLR and autothrottle engaged, namic benefit, wake position cepts, the latest of which is the BWB. Others under study operating e§ ciency improvements because lift can be gen- the wake capture function moves the tools during the transition, and the re- must be known to within a few percent include the AlbatrossOne flexible-wing demonstrator erated across the fuselage as well as the wings. Additional trail aircraft into the ideal position— quirement for new autopilot submodes. of wingspan, around 10 ft. for large com- and the Nautilius boundary-layer ingestion initiative with benefi ts include reduced form drag, an e§ cient span-load- about 200 ft. from the vortex—based The concept is based on predicting, mercial aircraft. This is beyond the 30-m ONERA, the French aerospace research agency. Near- ed structure and greater space above the wing for high- on ride quality and fuel saving. rather than measuring, the wake posi- (100-ft.) accuracy normally assumed for er-term advances Airbus aims to introduce on its current er-bypass engines. BWBs are also attractive because they The C-17 flights and NASA’s ACT tion. When the trail aircraft is follow- unaugmented GPS. If both aircraft are products include laminar fl ow control, which has been can more easily support nonconventional hybrid-electric tests involving a pair of Gulfstream ing behind by 20 wingspans, or about viewing the same satellites, they can nav- recently tested on an A340 demonstrator as well as on an and, perhaps ultimately, all-electric propulsion systems. GIIIs reported only “light chop” when 4,000 ft, the vortices shed by the lead igate relative to each other with much A350 testbed. Airbus is also working with Rolls-Royce to- As part of this pursuit, Airbus says the Maveric also surfing the wake, but it is a trade be- can drift significantly. The rate at greater accuracy, but this would require ward fl ight tests of the E-Fan X hybrid electric propulsion forms part of a broader group of advanced technology tween ride quality and fuel saving. The which the wake sinks depends on the new ADS-B messages, and “we can’t demonstrator in 2021. studies that will help guide future product development. crew can “turn the knob,” Brown says, lead’s type, weight and speed, while count on the aircraft in a formation al- “The environmental pressure we are under and the fact Some of these projects, including the EcoPulse distributed surfing the wake more closely for fuel the rate at which it drifts depends ways seeing the same satellites,” he says. [that] we need to disrupt [the state of the art] to reach propulsion demonstrator unveiled last year, will infl uence saving when passengers are awake, on winds aloft. Predicting position “We are going to need some way to sense emissions objectives in 2050 forces us to drive down av- decisions on which technology may be tested in a larg- but moving further away at night to requires data from the lead aircraft. position inside the wake,” says Sipe. enues we wouldn’t have gone down earlier,” says Jean- er-scale demonstrator. “To take this concept further, we improve ride quality while they sleep. “Absent a sensor to detect the wake, Despite the challenges that still Brice Dumont, executive vice president of engineering for will need to fl y a ‘Scale 1’ or larger demonstrator, but be- There will also be some threshold of we have to use an aircraft-to-aircraft lie ahead, wake surfing for efficiency Airbus. Although acknowledging that the BWB concept fore that we must answer questions about airport interface atmospheric turbulence beyond which data link,” says Flanzer. “ADS-B is ap- continues to show promise, for both is not new, he adds that recent advances could make it issues and the propulsion system,” says Dumont. wake surfing is not possible, he says. pealing because of its prevalence, but commercial and military operations. more feasible today. “What makes us wish to revive the “What’s the best fi t for the BWB?” he asks. “Right now, Once joined, the trail aircraft flies does it provide enough information and Maj. Will Guthrie, a U.S. Air Force Re- BWB now?” he asks. “Some technologies have improved; we have two podded engines, but is it the right formula? automatically, a situational-awareness resolution to predict the wake? And serve tanker pilot who is also a FedEx we can make the aircraft lighter, and the fl ight controls and In parallel we are testing the EcoPulse with Daher and display showing the crew its position how do we provide enough integrity to pilot, says the cargo airline has several computing capabilities are one level higher. The equation Safran in France, which is teaching us quickly about fl ight relative to both the lead aircraft and maintain safe separation?” The consen- aircraft flying in the same direction, was not resolvable, and now we believe it is.” controls and power controls for distributed propulsion. its predicted wake. If the lead aircraft sus is that ADS-B alone is not adequate. to Los Angeles and San Francisco, The Maveric demonstrator is 6.5 ft. long with a 10.5-ft. So we are converging this into a potential product. I’d say needs to change speed, altitude or For the level of reliable wake predic- London and Paris, just minutes apart wingspan. Powered by twin podded model-aircraft turbo- the next step would be fl ying this at a larger scale, but at heading, the intent is transmitted to tion necessary for routine commercial every day. “There is no reason not to jets, mounted above the aft deck of the 24.2-ft. 2-area wing, exactly what scale and when I don’t know.” the trail aircraft, which may have to cooperative-trajectory operations, link up so the trailing aircraft can take the aircraft fi rst fl ew in June 2019 at an undisclosed loca- Under the EcoPulse project Daher, Airbus and Safran move away from the wake during the ADS-B data alone is likely insufficient the benefit,” he told the conference.c tion in central France. The aircraft is still being fl ight-test- are modifying a TBM 900 turboprop as a distributed-pro-

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 3 AIR MOBILITY

pulsion demonstrator for flight Supporting basic tail  ns, tests by mid-2022. Although the nacelles are positioned the aircraft will retain its neither for boundary-layer standard nose-mount- ingestion nor noise shielding, ed engine and propeller, the TBM will be modifi ed and are believed to be with three small propellers a preliminary concept. on each wing. Each will be driven by a 45-kW AIRCRA AR WANER/AIAIONIAESCO BACRON INIAN/E IAES Safran ENGINeUS electric motor, fed by batteries or an auxiliary power unit. Airbus is contributing battery tech- closely with the launch of nology and aerodynamic modeling. the Airbus Maveric study. Unlike the first McDonnell Douglas/Boeing BWB Boeing’s BWB studies, some of studies, which focused on larger-capacity airliners and which were conducted with NASA from freighter versions, the Maveric is aimed at the smaller sin- 2006 to 2013 under the X-48 project, focused mostly gle-aisle market. Airbus believes an A320-size BWB could on fl ight characteristics but also included many potential be around 20% more eŠ cient than the current generation passenger and cargo configuration evaluations. These and appears to target the regional and narrowbody airliner mostly favored freight over passenger roles because of sector that NASA envisaged with its proposed Ultra-Ef- perceived concerns over emergency egress and situational ficient Subsonic Technology (UEST) subsonic X-plane awareness issues associated with the predominantly win- demonstrator program in 2016-17. dowless cabin. But BWB designer Dzyne says cabin layouts Conceived as potential follow-ons to the X-59 Quiet Su- will allow better access to exits than current single-aisle personic Technology low-boom demonstrator, the provi- aircraft as well as options for extra windows such as sky- sional UEST lineup included three blended designs from lights. Airbus believes future single-deck cabin concepts Boeing, Dzyne Technologies and Lockheed Martin—the could include exit designs and display screen technology latter of which proposed a hybrid wing body. Although to make BWBs more acceptable to the traveling public. NASA’s subsonic project was subsequently redirected “We need to come up with disruptive options and enter from BWBs to focus more on hybrid-electric technology service at the earliest possible date to bring benefi ts by concepts, the timing of the original UEST eœ ort coincides 2050. The clock is ticking,” says Dumont. c

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AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AIR MOBILITY MILITARY AVIATION pulsion demonstrator for flight Supporting basic tail  ns, LOGISTICS & MAINTENANCE tests by mid-2022. Although the nacelles are positioned SYMPOSIUM (MALMS) the aircraft will retain its neither for boundary-layer standard nose-mount- ingestion nor noise shielding, April 28-29, 2020 • Dallas, TX ed engine and propeller, the TBM will be modifi ed and are believed to be with three small propellers a preliminary concept. on each wing. Each will be driven by a 45-kW AIRCRA AR WANER/AIAIONIAESCO BACRON INIAN/E IAES Safran ENGINeUS electric motor, fed by batteries or an Network with Military and auxiliary power unit. Airbus is contributing battery tech- closely with the launch of nology and aerodynamic modeling. the Airbus Maveric study. Unlike the first McDonnell Douglas/Boeing BWB Boeing’s BWB studies, some of Industry Sustainment Leaders studies, which focused on larger-capacity airliners and which were conducted with NASA from freighter versions, the Maveric is aimed at the smaller sin- 2006 to 2013 under the X-48 project, focused mostly gle-aisle market. Airbus believes an A320-size BWB could on fl ight characteristics but also included many potential be around 20% more eŠ cient than the current generation passenger and cargo configuration evaluations. These and appears to target the regional and narrowbody airliner mostly favored freight over passenger roles because of Join the conversation on sector that NASA envisaged with its proposed Ultra-Ef- perceived concerns over emergency egress and situational improving military sustainment ficient Subsonic Technology (UEST) subsonic X-plane awareness issues associated with the predominantly win- with the people that are driving demonstrator program in 2016-17. dowless cabin. But BWB designer Dzyne says cabin layouts Conceived as potential follow-ons to the X-59 Quiet Su- will allow better access to exits than current single-aisle process changes and personic Technology low-boom demonstrator, the provi- aircraft as well as options for extra windows such as sky- readiness operations. sional UEST lineup included three blended designs from lights. Airbus believes future single-deck cabin concepts Boeing, Dzyne Technologies and Lockheed Martin—the could include exit designs and display screen technology latter of which proposed a hybrid wing body. Although to make BWBs more acceptable to the traveling public. NASA’s subsonic project was subsequently redirected “We need to come up with disruptive options and enter from BWBs to focus more on hybrid-electric technology service at the earliest possible date to bring benefi ts by concepts, the timing of the original UEST eœ ort coincides 2050. The clock is ticking,” says Dumont. c

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AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AIR MOBILITY REFUELING REVISITED > U.S. AIR FORCE ANTICIPATES COMMERCIAL REFUELING AWARD IN 2020 > THE SERVICE IS NOT CONVINCED OF KC-46 DESIGN FIX PROPOSAL Lee Hudson Washington

he U.S. Air Force, forced to fi nally confront a gap in the is giving Thomas confi dence the Air Force is making progress toward its nation’s aerial refueling needs, plans to pay industry for goal of establishing initial capabilities. Tcommercial services as it does with intertheater airlift. “We’ve identifi ed a set of require- ments,” Thomas says. “Depending on Over the past year, Air Mobility of time pilots and crew are deployed how they choose to provide the ser- Command (AMC) has worked with compared to being at home, Army vice and where they operate from, U.S. Transportation Command Gen. Stephen Lyons, Transcom com- there’s a lot of different variables (Transcom) on fl eshing out the idea mander, said at the Atlantic Council. that could probably be in the realm of using vendors for commercial “We have to fi gure out a way to miti- of 6,000-10,000 hr. per year.” tanking in a noncombat environment, gate the delayed fi elding of the [Boeing] The military is still working out a Lt. Gen. Jon Thomas, deputy AMC KC-46,” he said. slew of variables with industry on the chief, tells Aviation Week. Soliciting industry for commercial pay structure. For example, he notes, “There is an opportunity for a thin- tanking capability is not a new con- should the Air Force pay per flying slice capability that could relieve cept inside the Pentagon—the Navy hour, or pay a fee that is based on a com- some stress on the force to do things has aerial refueling contracts with a bination of fuel delivery and distance? like refueling for test and evaluation commercial vendor. But Thomas is Thomas anticipates the military will or refueling for training events that quick to point out a key difference: hold a third industry day because the are in support of others,” he says. The Army, Marine Corps and Navy iterative process is helpful for the Air “But our Air Mobility Command tank all use the drogue aerial refueling Force to understand what is in the realm crews don’t get a whole lot of training method that requires more pilot ma- of possibility. The plan is to award a con- benefi t out of [moving] foreign mili- neuvering. The Air Force uses a boom tract by the end of 2020, he says. tary sales aircraft.” that can pump up to 880 gal. per “Based on the dynamics and The rationale is that any little bit minute while the drogue system can complexity of the whole thing, will help morale. The U.S. military’s pump 220-290 gal. at the same rate. aerial refueling community “is the most In December, the military hosted its stressed and probably the one that’s second commercial tanking services in- pushing the red line or exceeding the dustry day, and the knowledge gained red line” when it comes to the amount

The U.S. Air Force continues to buy KC-46 aircraft that require substantial  xes.

MARK WAGNER/AVIATION-IMAGES.COM

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AIR MOBILITY > Airbus’ costly A400M assumptions p. 44 USAF’s $3 billion makeover p. 45

10s to industry and then buying them must also determine if the KC-Z will back as commercial service aircraft. be unmanned or optionally manned. “At this point, we’re not contemplat- The tanking shortfall is intensifi ed ing any transfer of USAF aircraft to by ongoing KC-46A Pegasus program REFUELING REVISITED some other entity in order for them to delays. “It’s really hard for us to con- come back to us and provide air refu- sider the KC-46 part of our operation- > U.S. AIR FORCE ANTICIPATES COMMERCIAL REFUELING AWARD IN 2020 we think that’s a reasonable stretch eling services,” Thomas says. “That’s al capacity,” Thomas says. goal,” Thomas says. just not the way we would want to In January, Air Force Chief of Staž > THE SERVICE IS NOT CONVINCED OF KC-46 DESIGN FIX PROPOSAL AMC issued a request for informa- approach it, because if we have those Gen. David Goldfein sent a letter to tion in 2018 for a commercial refueling tankers available then we want to be Boeing asking the company to focus Lee Hudson Washington service that can handle 7,000 hr. an- able to fl y them ourselves.” on the KC-46 program even as it is nually. Airbus and Lockheed Martin Recently retired KC-10 aircraft would fi xing the 737 MAX. he U.S. Air Force, forced to fi nally confront a gap in the is giving Thomas confi dence the Air joined forces to respond as the service reside at the Aircraft Maintenance “The Air Force continues to accept Force is making progress toward its determines the way ahead. and Regeneration Center in Tucson, deliveries of a tanker incapable of nation’s aerial refueling needs, plans to pay industry for goal of establishing initial capabilities. In 2019, Omega Air Refueling took Arizona, commonly referred to as “the performing its primary operational Tcommercial services as it does with intertheater airlift. “We’ve identifi ed a set of require- delivery of the fi rst two former Royal boneyard.” The military could decide to mission,” Goldfein wrote. ments,” Thomas says. “Depending on Netherlands Air Force KDC-10 aircraft take the tankers out of storage if the air- The KC-46A program still faces Over the past year, Air Mobility of time pilots and crew are deployed how they choose to provide the ser- that they could potentially use to pro- craft are needed in a major contingency. unresolved Category 1 defi ciencies re- Command (AMC) has worked with compared to being at home, Army vice and where they operate from, vide tanking services to the U.S. Air Although there is still work to do volving around the remote vision sys- U.S. Transportation Command Gen. Stephen Lyons, Transcom com- there’s a lot of different variables Force. The KDC-10 joins the company as on the Boeing KC-46, the Air Force is tem (RVS) and the boom telescope ac- (Transcom) on fl eshing out the idea mander, said at the Atlantic Council. that could probably be in the realm its fi rst boom-equipped tanker. Omega already thinking about a “bridge tank- tuator. A Category 1 defi ciency means of using vendors for commercial “We have to fi gure out a way to miti- of 6,000-10,000 hr. per year.” currently owns and operates a small er” known as the KC-Y, which is en- the government has identifi ed risk that tanking in a noncombat environment, gate the delayed fi elding of the [Boeing] The military is still working out a fl eet of tanker aircraft, with four dif- visioned as a nondevelopmental com- jeopardizes lives or critical assets. The Lt. Gen. Jon Thomas, deputy AMC KC-46,” he said. slew of variables with industry on the ferent confi gurations approved to sup- mercial derivative air refueling tanker. problem with the RVS is what the Air chief, tells Aviation Week. Soliciting industry for commercial pay structure. For example, he notes, port Navy and Marine Corps aircraft. This is what the service intends to Force calls a “rubber sheet” ež ect that “There is an opportunity for a thin- tanking capability is not a new con- should the Air Force pay per flying One possibility to ensure enough buy after the last KC-46 is delivered distorts the image on the visual display slice capability that could relieve cept inside the Pentagon—the Navy hour, or pay a fee that is based on a com- refueling capacity is delaying retire- in 2028 and before it purchases a new used by the boom operator during re- some stress on the force to do things has aerial refueling contracts with a bination of fuel delivery and distance? ment of the Boeing KC-135. The Air clean-sheet design tanker known as fueling operations. The actuator on like refueling for test and evaluation commercial vendor. But Thomas is Thomas anticipates the military will Force plans to divest the KC-Z, Thomas says. the refueling boom needs to be more or refueling for training events that quick to point out a key difference: hold a third industry day because the the KC-10 fleet while “We are trying to accelerate KC-Z sensitive to smaller receiver aircraft, are in support of others,” he says. The Army, Marine Corps and Navy iterative process is helpful for the Air retaining some of its as much as possible” because there are such as A-10s and F-16s. Boeing has “But our Air Mobility Command tank all use the drogue aerial refueling Force to understand what is in the realm KC-135 aircraft into the larger modernization bills the Pentagon agreed to pay for the RVS design fi x crews don’t get a whole lot of training method that requires more pilot ma- of possibility. The plan is to award a con- 2050s. Citing concerns has to pay in the late 2020s, he says. while the Air Force will pay for the de- benefi t out of [moving] foreign mili- neuvering. The Air Force uses a boom tract by the end of 2020, he says. about the gap, Con- The Air Force is working on the sign change to the actuator. tary sales aircraft.” that can pump up to 880 gal. per “Based on the dynamics and gress in its fi scal 2020 initial capabilities document for the Thomas is not sold on the fact that The rationale is that any little bit minute while the drogue system can complexity of the whole thing, defense policy bill says KC-Z, and once it is wrapped up, an Boeing’s design proposal for the RVS will help morale. The U.S. military’s pump 220-290 gal. at the same rate. it will block the military analysis of alternatives will begin. will meet the program’s performance aerial refueling community “is the most In December, the military hosted its from retiring primary Much of the work centers on deciding parameters. This is based on evidence stressed and probably the one that’s second commercial tanking services in- inventory KC-10 air- what type of tanker the Air Force will the service has seen to date, he adds. pushing the red line or exceeding the dustry day, and the knowledge gained craft in that fi scal year. need beyond 2030 to support the joint The company contends that getting red line” when it comes to the amount Thomas dispelled force. This includes defi ning the range, the KC-46A program back on track is the rumor of the mili- payload and communications suite a top priority. “We’re committed to see The U.S. Air Force continues to buy KC-46 aircraft that tary selling retired KC- needed, Thomas says. The service that through and see it through the require substantial  xes. right way,” Boeing CEO David Calhoun says. “It’s going to fi nish beautifully.” c

AR WANER/AIAIONIAESCO

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 3 AIR MOBILITY

Airbus Pays High Price for through the end of March. Faury said the outlook for sales was “increasingly challeng- A400M Export Assumptions ing,” and that the company would “reassess the future ex- Tony Osborne Toulouse ports” for the aircraft. A Saudi order could open up the regional market for the THE REBASELINING OF CONTRACTS FOR THE A400M A400 at a time when airlifter orders are in the doldrums. airlifter signed last summer should have lifted what former “You’d think [transport aircraft would] do well, given high Airbus CEO Tom Enders called a “Damocles sword” from defense spending and the need for strategic mobility,” says over the company. Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis for the Teal Group. However, the sizable €1.2 billion ($1.3 billion) charge re- He says the military airlift market saw a 19% drop in deliv- vealed by the company when it announced its 2019 financial eries during 2018-19. statements suggests that the A400M-inflicted financial pain is “The A400M went from one per month to eight per year,” far from over. CEO Guillaume Faury told analysts the airlifter Aboulafia says. “It doesn’t look like there is going to be much program could continue to weigh on the company’s bottom that saves that program from oblivion.” line, to the tune of €2 billion, into the mid-2020s. Airbus had made significant progress over the past year with The latest charge relates to costs associated with export the A400M, achieving simultaneous deployment of paratroop- assumptions. By now, the OEM had hoped that it would have ers from both paratroop doors and completing dry contacts as secured an additional export order for the aircraft—beyond part of the company’s plan to certify the aircraft for helicopter the four-aircraft order from Malaysia. aerial refueling by 2021. The contract rebaselining adjusted air- An order from Saudi Arabia would have been in the offing, craft delivery, tactical capability and retrofit profiles and rewrote but Germany’s “repeatedly extended” ban on exports of de- maintenance contracts in a bid to lift part of the financial bur- fense equipment to Riyadh means a deal remains out of reach. den of the program off the OEM. Nonetheless, the A400M has The German export ban to Riyadh has also triggered a now cost the company over €5 billion in the last four years. The second charge of €212 million related to the delivery of a company recorded charges of €436 million in 2018, €1.3 bil- border security system. Berlin’s embargo has been extended lion in 2017 and €2.2 billion in 2016. c

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44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AIR MOBILITY EYEBROWAIR MOBILITY

Airbus Pays High Price for through the end of March. Faury said the outlook for sales was “increasingly challeng- AWU.S. Hed Air ForceHere TwoPlans Lines $3 Billionof Copy Two At least 179 KC-46As and 300 A400M Export Assumptions ing,” and that the company would “reassess the future ex- LinesMobility Two Fleet Lines Makeover KC-135R/Ts will need upgrades Tony Osborne Toulouse ports” for the aircraft. to perform existing and new roles planned after 2028. A Saudi order could open up the regional market for the > USAFDECK PLANSCOPY HERE BUDGET ONE SHIFT LINE OF UP TO $3 BILLION FOR LOGISTICS THE REBASELINING OF CONTRACTS FOR THE A400M A400 at a time when airlifter orders are in the doldrums. airlifter signed last summer should have lifted what former “You’d think [transport aircraft would] do well, given high > AIRDECK MOBILITY COPY HERE COMMAND TWO LINES PROBES DECK INDUSTRY COPY HERE FOR TWO LINES COPY Airbus CEO Tom Enders called a “Damocles sword” from defense spending and the need for strategic mobility,” says HERE TWO LINES COMMUNICATIONS UPGRADES over the company. Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis for the Teal Group. Name Name City However, the sizable €1.2 billion ($1.3 billion) charge re- He says the military airlift market saw a 19% drop in deliv- vealed by the company when it announced its 2019 financial eries during 2018-19. ropCap Interstate Black 9.5 on statements suggests that the A400M-inflicted financial pain is “The A400M went from one per month to eight per year,” 10/5 far from over. CEO Guillaume Faury told analysts the airlifter Aboulafia says. “It doesn’t look like there is going to be much D

program could continue to weigh on the company’s bottom that saves that program from oblivion.” CRISOPER OA/S AIR ORCE line, to the tune of €2 billion, into the mid-2020s. Airbus had made significant progress over the past year with on 50 KC-135s, which provides access to Link 16 and the Mobile User Objec- The latest charge relates to costs associated with export the A400M, achieving simultaneous deployment of paratroop- tive System satellite constellation. But assumptions. By now, the OEM had hoped that it would have ers from both paratroop doors and completing dry contacts as AMC has larger plans for improving sit- secured an additional export order for the aircraft—beyond part of the company’s plan to certify the aircraft for helicopter Steve Trimble Washington defensive space assets and developing uational awareness in mobility cockpits. the four-aircraft order from Malaysia. aerial refueling by 2021. The contract rebaselining adjusted air- the logistics-under-attack initiative. On Feb. 3, AMC released a request An order from Saudi Arabia would have been in the offing, craft delivery, tactical capability and retrofit profiles and rewrote mobility fleet and logistics “We are no longer thinking it’s a for information, seeking responses from but Germany’s “repeatedly extended” ban on exports of de- maintenance contracts in a bid to lift part of the financial bur- system that the U.S. Air Force good assumption that we will have un- potential suppliers for a wing-mounted fense equipment to Riyadh means a deal remains out of reach. den of the program off the OEM. Nonetheless, the A400M has Aregards as vulnerable and un- fettered access to logistics,” Air Force beyond-line-of-sight communications derutilized is about to receive a poten- Chief of StaŒ Gen. David Goldfein said pod for KC-135s and KC-46s. At that The German export ban to Riyadh has also triggered a now cost the company over €5 billion in the last four years. The tial $3 billion makeover. at a Center for a New American Secu- point, the air-refueling fl eet would have second charge of €212 million related to the delivery of a company recorded charges of €436 million in 2018, €1.3 bil- To address the underutilization, rity event. “We’ve been able to move access to much of the same information border security system. Berlin’s embargo has been extended lion in 2017 and €2.2 billion in 2016. c the Air Force will modify a fl eet de- personnel equipment at a time and now provided to command-and-control signed for two missions—airlift and place of our choosing. That’s a bad aircraft such as the Boeing E-3C fl eet. air refueling—to perform a third assumption for the future.” “Once you’ve got that situation- function as a new communications Fighters and bombers are designed al awareness, then what do you do hub in a decentralized, networked with the assumption that they will be with it?” Thomas asks. “That’s when command-and-control system. targeted and attacked. Over the past you have the systems that are either As the air mobility fleet acquires decade, the Air Force Research Labo- countermeasures or self-defense sys- a more critical role, its value as a tar- ratory has experimented with stealthy tems. But it all starts with situational Second Annual Urban Air Mobility Conference get for potential peer adversaries ris- designs for the mobility fl eet, includ- awareness.” es. In response, the Air Force plans to ing the Speed Agile concept. A surviv- In addition to traditional radio-fre- Shaping the Future of Transportation upgrade onboard sensors and defens- able concept for an advanced airborne quency countermeasures such as chaŒ , es, with options ranging from tradi- refueler remains in the study phase the mobility fleet may in the future for Smart Cities and Regional Connectivity tional countermeasures and decoys to within Air Mobility Command (AMC) have other options for countering ra- an emerging class of hit-to-kill inter- but likely will not emerge until Boeing dar-guided threats. The Air Force Re- Manufacturers, regulators, technology innovators, municipal leaders and the ceptors. delivers the last KC-46A in 2028. search Laboratory has begun Phase 2 infrastructure & investment community will come together to discuss on-demand The Air Force will look for new and By then, the Air Force expects to of a program to develop the Miniature aviation for smart cities and to create a new future for air transportation. creative ways to lighten the load—lit- have 179 KC-46As, 300 KC-135R/Ts Self-Defense Munition (MSDM), an April 27-28, 2020 Speakers include: erally—on the air mobility fleet, as and hundreds of C-130H/Js. Current air-launched interceptor for targeting Dallas, TX long-range missiles and cyberattacks KC-135s and C-130s are equipped advanced air-to-air missiles. are expected to further strain the only with infrared countermeasures The Air Force is also working on ground-based hubs of a global logis- for short-range, heat-seeking mis- other concepts to reduce the mobil- tics system, including forward-based siles. The KC-46As are delivered ity fleet’s vulnerability, such as for- repair and supply depots. with infrared countermeasures and ward-basing 3D printers that can The elements of the recently radar-warning receivers installed but produce spare parts locally. launched “logistics under attack” ini- no radio-frequency countermeasures. “Does the future actually look like 3D Pamela Cohn Gene Reindel Robin Riedel David Silver From the people who tiative reflect a new understanding The fl eet’s communications capability printers, right, and stacks of material, know Aviation best. Vice President, Vice President, Partner, Vice President Global Strategy & HMMH Mckinsey & for Civil Aviation, within the Pentagon of how potential is likewise unimpressive. The KC-46A as opposed to the large logistics chains Aviation Week. Join us. Operations, Company Aerospace warfi ghting scenarios with peer adver- is the fi rst mobility aircraft to enter that we built?” Goldfein asked. “How uam.aviationweek.com Hyundai Urban Industries saries in the future will be diŒ erent. service with Link 16, while the KC-135s do you think about that and leverage Air Mobility Association The Air Force submitted a fi scal 2021 have only UHF/VHF-band ARC-210 technology? How do we articulate to budget plan that proposes to transfer radios. “We have got to do better than the Congress, the American people, SPECIAL FEATURE: Dallas – Fort Worth Case Study billions of dollars over the next five that for our aircrew,” says Lt. Gen. Jon the importance of fl owing portions of Aviation Week is Join local leaders in the emerging UAM market for an inside look at how years to four initiatives: enabling joint Thomas, AMC’s deputy commander . our materiel forward and then actually proud to welcome our Diamond Sponsor. North Texas is leading the way as one of the fi rst test sites for UAM operations all-domain command and control, ac- In 2018, the Air Force launched starting to park it in diŒ erent places?” c in the United States. celerating the Northrop Grumman B-21 a program to install the Real-Time program, investing in new oŒ ensive and Information in the Cockpit system —With Lee Hudson in Washington

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 4 U.S. FISCAL 2021 BUDGET> USAF spending dilemma p. 48 Light-attack revival p. 50 Next-gen missile defense p. 52 NASA budget favors exploration p. 52 Aeronautics funds electric propulsion p. 53 TOUGH CHOICES > NUCLEAR MODERNIZATION REMAINS A TOP PRIORITY

> ARMY TRUNCATES CHINOOK BLOCK 2 UPGRADE PROGRAM

BOEIN Lee Hudson Washington

he Trump administration is request- The CH-47 Block 2 is an upgrade that aims to increase the ing a fl at budget for national security heavy helicopter’s carrying capacity enough so that it can of $740.5 billion in fi scal 2021 to keep haul a Joint Light Tactical Vehicle. military equipment relevant to count- something that we should do to something that we must do,” T U.S. Strategic Command chief Navy Adm. Charles Richard er threats from China and Russia. The task of says in written testimony submitted to the Senate Armed evaluating the request falls to Congress, which Services Committee. “Continuing to maintain the Nation’s is already pushing back on some of the specifi cs. strategic deterrent needed to meet the challenges of the global security environment and to realize Presidential and “Without growth for infl ation,” says Deputy Defense Sec- Departmental guidance defi ned by the National Defense retary David Norquist, “we had to make additional tough Strategy (NDS), National Military Strategy (NMS), and Nu- choices and major cuts in some areas in order to free up money to continue to invest in the high-end fi ght.” Pentagon oŠ cials stress there are several winners in this unding Reuest or ey Deense rograms year’s budget plans: Nuclear weapons modernization, for S millions example, would get almost $29 billion. Hypersonic weapons iscal would land $3.2 billion. Missile defense would receive $20.3 2021 2022 2023 202 2025 ear billion, space-related programs $18 billion—including $15.4 billion toward the new Space Force, and air dominance-relat- 35A 5293 46 404 4796 441 ed programs would get about $57 billion. Pentagon oŠ cials dwelled less on the losers—such as the Air Force’s plan to 35B 1359 212 2547 2710 2779 retire aircraft and the Army’s plan to upgrade Boeing CH-47 35C 2462 2500 2975 295 3137 Chinooks—both unable to free up funding for modernized platforms. In the past, lawmakers have added back funding C 250 2249 2401 2962 23 to keep older aircraft active. Will they do so again? ABS 302 449 590 10 32

NUCLEAR MODERNIZATION reest Source: Deee Dere Nuclear modernization is a priority for the Pentagon be- cause there is not much margin in the schedule between clear Posture Review (NPR) requires continued Congressio- the end-life of legacy systems and when the new equipment nal support, budget stability, and on-time appropriations.” is slated to enter service. This includes the Ground-Based There is already vocal opposition from a member of the Strategic Deterrent, Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider, Long- Senate Appropriations Committee against the Trump ad- Range Stando£ Weapon, missile warning technology and ministration pursuing development of hypersonic and nucle- the Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine. China and ar weapons. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) says hypersonic Russia are both modernizing their nuclear arsenals, while missiles are an entirely new class of weapon the U.S. does the U.S. lags , administration oŠ cials contend. not need in its inventory. “We must proceed with modernization. Sustainment and “This unnecessary spending is likely to spark a new arms modernization of our nuclear forces has transitioned from race with Russia and China. Simply put, these are not the

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST U.S. FISCAL 2021 BUDGET > USAF spending dilemma p. 48 Light-attack revival p. 50 Next-gen missile defense p. 52 NASA budget favors exploration p. 5452 Aeronautics funds electric propulsion p. 5553

priorities on which we should spend taxpayer dollars—par- CHINOOK BLOCK 2 ticularly at the expense of critical domestic programs—and For the second year in a row, the Army is trying the same I will do everything I can to block them,” Feinstein says. budget gambit—truncating the CH-47F Block 2 upgrade “Now the president is proposing a budget that dangerous- program. The fiscal 2021 budget request again attempts to ly increases spending on new nuclear weapons and leaves defer Block 2 upgrades for conventional-forces Chinooks TOUGH funding for nuclear nonproliferation programs flat. The but includes money to upgrade special operations forces United States should be working to rid the world of nucle- MH-47Gs. ar weapons, not creating new types and a larger stockpile.” The Army proposed deferring Chinook upgrades for five years in the fiscal 2020 budget request. However, Congress AIRCRAFT RETIREMENTS bypassed that by injecting $28 million for advanced pro - The Pentagon will get pushback from Capitol Hill about curement for the CH-47 Block 2. Three of the four defense CHOICES proposing the retirement of 29 legacy tankers in the fiscal oversight committees rejected the Army’s initial plan and 2021 budget even as the successor Boeing KC-46A Pegasus during conference agreed to fund the program. > NUCLEAR MODERNIZATION is not considered operationally viable. The service contended that deferring the program for REMAINS A TOP PRIORITY The Air Force is recommending the retirement of 13 KC- five years was necessary so that it could instead reinvest 135s and 16 KC-10s. The tanker shortfall is not a new prob- in Future Vertical Lift and other modernization priorities. lem for the service. Citing concerns about the gap, Congress However, Chinook Block 1 cannot lift the heavier equipment > ARMY TRUNCATES CHINOOK in its fiscal 2020 defense policy bill blocked the military from the Army has in its inventory, such as the Joint Light Tactical BLOCK 2 UPGRADE PROGRAM retiring primary inventory KC-10 aircraft in that fiscal year. Vehicle that is replacing the Humvee. The Chinook Block 2 “We do have a requirement out there to keep 479 tankers, effort includes lighter, one-piece fuel cells, a redesigned elec- and we will continue to do that,” Navy Vice Adm. Ron Boxall, trical system, strengthened airframe, uprated transmission BOEING Lee Hudson Washington resources and assessment director for the Joint Staff said and advanced composite rotor blades. Additional funding for during the budget rollout. Chinook Block 2 would boost Boeing’s CH-47 assembly line. Boxall said the Pentagon will watch the KC-46 program Last fall, the State Department approved a potential sale he Trump administration is request- The CH-47 Block 2 is an upgrade that aims to increase the closely and adjust the tanker fleet as necessary to maintain of 10 CH-47F Block 1 aircraft to the United Arab Emirates. ing a fl at budget for national security heavy helicopter’s carrying capacity enough so that it can This follows approval in July Funding Request for Nuclear Research of the sale of up to 16 CH-47 of $740.5 billion in fi scal 2021 to keep haul a Joint Light Tactical Vehicle. Block 1s with extended-range (U.S. $ millions) military equipment relevant to count- something that we should do to something that we must do,” fuel tanks to the UK. T U.S. Strategic Command chief Navy Adm. Charles Richard er threats from China and Russia. The task of Fiscal Year 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 says in written testimony submitted to the Senate Armed SPACE FORCE evaluating the request falls to Congress, which Services Committee. “Continuing to maintain the Nation’s Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent $1,524 $2,536 $3,034 $3,072 $3,031 There will be “pretty intense is already pushing back on some of the specifi cs. strategic deterrent needed to meet the challenges of the oversight” of the Space Force global security environment and to realize Presidential and Long-Range Standoff Weapon $474 $359 $395 $410 $359 by Congress, according to the “Without growth for infl ation,” says Deputy Defense Sec- Departmental guidance defi ned by the National Defense Source: Defense Department top Republican on the House retary David Norquist, “we had to make additional tough Strategy (NDS), National Military Strategy (NMS), and Nu- Armed Services Committee. choices and major cuts in some areas in order to free up the 479-tanker requirement. The Air Force framed the KC- The fiscal 2021 budget request is the first delivered to Capi- money to continue to invest in the high-end fi ght.” 10 and KC-135 retirements as a tough choice but worth the tol Hill from the Pentagon since establishment of the Space Pentagon oŠ cials stress there are several winners in this Funding Request for e Defense rograms risk. “We can’t continue to fund everything that we have in Force as the sixth armed service. The nascent branch re- year’s budget plans: Nuclear weapons modernization, for (U.S. $ millions) our force today,” because the service must pay for equip- quested $15.4 billion, consisting mostly of $10.3 billion for example, would get almost $29 billion. Hypersonic weapons Fiscal ment the military will need in 2030, says Maj. Gen. John a research and development program, $2.4 billion for pro- would land $3.2 billion. Missile defense would receive $20.3 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Pletcher, deputy assistant secretary for budget. curement and $2.5 billion for operations and maintenance. Year billion, space-related programs $18 billion—including $15.4 The fiscal 2021 budget request does not include funding billion toward the new Space Force, and air dominance-relat- F-35 $5,293 $4,6 $4,04 $4,796 $4,41 ADVANCED BATTLE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM for personnel. ed programs would get about $57 billion. Pentagon oŠ cials For the first time, the Air Force is proposing a large invest- “I think all of us expected it to be a crawl, walk, run sort dwelled less on the losers—such as the Air Force’s plan to F-35B 1,359 2,12 2,547 2,710 2,779 ment in the Advanced Battle Management System (ABMS) of situation,” says committee Ranking Member Mac Thorn- retire aircraft and the Army’s plan to upgrade Boeing CH-47 that is designed to replace the Northrop Grumman E-8C berry (R-Texas). “They want to transfer about 100 people F-35 2,462 2,500 2,975 2,95 3,137 Chinooks—both unable to free up funding for modernized and Boeing E-3 fleet. The funding profile outlined in the new over [from the Army], so I think we need to look at that.” platforms. In the past, lawmakers have added back funding -4 2,50 2,249 2,401 2,962 2,3 budget request is $3.26 billion over the next five years, includ- Thornberry acknowledged there is “bureaucratic ran- to keep older aircraft active. Will they do so again? ing $302 million in fiscal 2021. The service is using a crawl, kling” in terms of the Space Development Agency (SDA) BS 302 449 590 1,0 32 walk, run approach in developing the new technology. The and how it fits into the Pentagon. When a shakeup occurs NUCLEAR MODERNIZATION *RDT&E request Source: Defense Department Air Force plans to install a ground-based communications inside a large organization such as the Defense Department, Nuclear modernization is a priority for the Pentagon be- gateway on the Kratos XQ-58 Valkyrie and on the KC-46. “people start grabbing pieces,” he says. “And so that’s obvi- cause there is not much margin in the schedule between clear Posture Review (NPR) requires continued Congressio- Once it is possible to deploy an airborne communications ously still a work in progress.” the end-life of legacy systems and when the new equipment nal support, budget stability, and on-time appropriations.” network, the service will introduce a cloud-like processing sys- The Pentagon is requesting $288 million for the SDA: is slated to enter service. This includes the Ground-Based There is already vocal opposition from a member of the tem outfitted with applications that take on the role usually per- $216 million for advanced component development and Strategic Deterrent, Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider, Long- Senate Appropriations Committee against the Trump ad- formed by airborne battle managers. The Air Force has briefed prototypes and $72.4 million for advanced technology de- Range Stando£ Weapon, missile warning technology and ministration pursuing development of hypersonic and nucle- congressional defense committee staffs on the ABMS concept, velopment. Additionally, the Pentagon is requesting $103 the Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine. China and ar weapons. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) says hypersonic but some are skeptical. A Capitol Hill staffer familiar with the million to continue funding the Space Rapid Capabilities Russia are both modernizing their nuclear arsenals, while missiles are an entirely new class of weapon the U.S. does program doubts the other services will support the Air Force’s Office under the Space Force. the U.S. lags , administration oŠ cials contend. not need in its inventory. vision. The ABMS model also appears unlikely to be embraced “The most important thing is we made a good start on “We must proceed with modernization. Sustainment and “This unnecessary spending is likely to spark a new arms by industry because the construct requires companies to cede spending more time and attention on space,” Thornberry modernization of our nuclear forces has transitioned from race with Russia and China. Simply put, these are not the intellectual property rights, the staffer tells Aviation Week. says. c

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 47 U.S. FISCAL 2021 BUDGET U.S. AIR FORCE/BOBBY CUMMINGS

An Era of Hard Decisions Begins as U.S. Defense Spending Stagnates

> A $705 BILLION BUDGET REQUEST OVERALL > MORE FUNDING FOR NEXT-GENERATION FIGHTER AND ENGINE

Steve Trimble Washington Bucking a trend, the Air Force can- The U-2S (represented above by a and Singapore celed the Hypersonic Conventional TU-2S in background, landing) Strike Weapon (HCSW) to focus on appears poised to survive its erstwhile anaging a flat or slightly de- a more advanced boost-glide mis- clining budget is easier when sile as interest grows in hypersonic successor, the signals-intelligence Mthe topline is over $700 billion, air-breathing cruise missiles. The and communications relay versions of but some programs feel the pinch more requested fleet reductions also fol- the RQ-4 unmanned aircraft system. than others. low the Air Force’s decisions during The U.S. Air Force’s requested $169 the last budget cycle to retire the as a typo, but one that strangely ap- billion share of a proposed $705 billion Northrop Grumman E-8C Joint Stars peared twice in the same document. defense budget for fiscal 2021 reflects in fiscal 2025 and remove funding for Although inconsistent with the Air the dilemma facing fiscal planners. the final planned member in the Lock- Force’s message that it needs to grow Although continuing to insist the Air heed Martin Space-Based Infrared to 486 combat squadrons to meet op- Force needs scores of additional com- Satellite (SBIRS) constellation in the erational requirements, the proposed bat squadrons, service officials are fiscal 2019 budget. fleet reductions since last year have proposing to accelerate retirements of “We had to make additional tough a consistent purpose. The overall dozens of aircraft across fighter, mobil- choices and major cuts in some areas defense budget has stagnated since ity and ISR (intelligence, surveillance in order to free up money to continue peaking at $716 billion in fiscal 2019, and reconnaissance) fleets. The savings to invest in the high-end fight,” Deputy falling to an enacted level of $704 bil- would be used to fund development of Defense Secretary David Norquist said. lion this fiscal year and edging up to a capabilities that mainly would be real- The proposed cuts in fiscal 2021 proposed $705 billion for fiscal 2021. ized only after passing through several could have been worse. With no top-line growth, the Air Force risk-prone years with an inconsistent An early January backlash by com- is financing an ambitious moderniza- military acquisition system. batant commanders forced Air Force tion strategy by leveraging savings Specifically, the Air Force propos- Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein to from early fleet retirements and ter- es through fiscal 2025 early retire - walk back even deeper fleet reduc- minating certain upgrades. ment of 44 A-10 attack aircraft, built tions, originally worth $30-35 billion “Our adversaries have designed by Fairchild Republic; 17 B-1 bomb- in operating savings over the next five their forces to exploit our vulnerabil- ers, built by Rockwell; 24 Northrop years. The Air Force has declined to ities, and unless we evolve, they will Grumman RQ-4 Block 20 and 30 specify which fleets were spared, but someday face a force they have readily unmanned aircraft systems (UAS); budget documents released to Con- trained and equipped themselves to 10 contractor-operated MQ-9 UAS, gress suggest the Lockheed U-2 was defeat,” said Maj. Gen. John Pletcher, built by General Atomics; and 16 Mc- involved. The Air Force dismissed a the Air Force’s budget director, speak- Donnell Douglas KC-10 and 13 Boeing reference to a fiscal 2025 retirement ing to reporters on Feb. 10. “We cannot KC-135 refuelers. date for the high-altitude ISR aircraft allow that to happen.”

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U.S. AIR FORCE/BOBBY CUMMINGS But the Air Force’s approach car- scale development of a replacement ating philosophy. The Marine Corps, ries near-term risks. Fewer aircraft for the Lockheed Martin F-22 as early for example, adopted a new strategy would be available now so more ad- as fiscal 2023. But the fiscal 2021 bud- in July 2019 that calls for tighter inte- vanced capabilities can be developed get offers a brighter outlook in the gration with the Navy. The fiscal 2021 for later. The Air Force applied a simi- long-term for NGAD, with spending budget request stops short of formal- An Era of Hard Decisions Begins lar strategy when a budget-sequestra- exceeding $2 billion annually for the ly adjusting the program of record for tion policy was imposed in fiscal 2012, first time, starting in fiscal 2025. the short-takeoff-and-vertical-landing as U.S. Defense Spending Stagnates leading to the retirements of hundreds The F-16 fleet also is due for a ma- F-35B, but proposes to cut the planned of A-10s and Lockheed Martin F-16s jor—and long-awaited—upgrade in the procurement by half, to 10. > A $705 BILLION BUDGET REQUEST OVERALL with no immediate replacements. fiscal 2021 budget. The Air National But the biggest new Air Force com- “We are seeing the fleet literally fall Guard has upgraded 72 F-16s with mitment is devoted to the Advanced > MORE FUNDING FOR NEXT-GENERATION FIGHTER AND ENGINE off a cliff,” said a source familiar with Northrop Grumman APG-82 active Battle Management System (ABMS), the Air Force’s budget plans. “The re- electronically scanned array radars with $3.26 billion requested over the placements are not ramping up fast since fiscal 2017. The Air Force now next five years, including a $302 mil- enough or soon enough.” plans to expand the upgrade to 330 lion down payment in fiscal 2021. In the view of some commanders, more fighters, including upgraded mis- In the near-term, the goals of ABMS Goldfein’s original proposal for ex- sion computers and displays that were are modest. An initial “on-ramp” event tracting $30-35 billion in savings as- not available for the first 72 aircraft. staged in December allowed the F-35 sumed too much risk in the near-term. A subset of the F-16 fleet then will and F-22 to exchange data through a The 2018 National Defense Strategy join the core of an advanced fleet of ground-based communications gate- commits the Air Force’s leadership to nonstealthy fighters, including the way that reconciled the waveforms of prepare now for a war with China by Boeing F-15EX, that will be tasked incompatible low-probability-of-inter- the end of the decade. But the com- with defending air bases and the cept data links used by both aircraft. manders in the field are calling for more—not fewer—resources now, to deal with current threats. “The combatant commanders are focused on the next year to two to Steve Trimble Washington Bucking a trend, the Air Force can- The U-2S (represented above by a three years, and the service chief is and Singapore celed the Hypersonic Conventional TU-2S in background, landing) looking at 10 to 15 years,” said Gen. Strike Weapon (HCSW) to focus on appears poised to survive its erstwhile Charles Brown, commander of Pacific anaging a flat or slightly de- a more advanced boost-glide mis- Air Forces, describing the tension be- clining budget is easier when sile as interest grows in hypersonic successor, the signals-intelligence tween officers in his position and the Mthe topline is over $700 billion, air-breathing cruise missiles. The and communications relay versions of service chiefs in the Pentagon. but some programs feel the pinch more requested fleet reductions also fol- the RQ-4 unmanned aircraft system. Although some capabilities are be- than others. low the Air Force’s decisions during ing subtracted, the Air Force’s budget The U.S. Air Force’s requested $169 the last budget cycle to retire the as a typo, but one that strangely ap- request restores funding for some billion share of a proposed $705 billion Northrop Grumman E-8C Joint Stars peared twice in the same document. long-sought modernization programs. The initial focus of the Advanced Battle Management defense budget for fiscal 2021 reflects in fiscal 2025 and remove funding for Although inconsistent with the Air A Next Generation Adaptive Engine System provides an airborne communications bridge the dilemma facing fiscal planners. the final planned member in the Lock- Force’s message that it needs to grow (NGAP) program appears for the first for the F-35 (left) and F-22 (right), but it eventually will Although continuing to insist the Air heed Martin Space-Based Infrared to 486 combat squadrons to meet op- time in the fiscal 2021 budget docu- Force needs scores of additional com- Satellite (SBIRS) constellation in the erational requirements, the proposed ments. As of last year’s budget cycle, expand to replace command suites on E-8C and E-3 bat squadrons, service officials are fiscal 2019 budget. fleet reductions since last year have the Air Force planned to wrap up by fleets with automated systems. proposing to accelerate retirements of “We had to make additional tough a consistent purpose. The overall 2021 the Adaptive Engine Technology dozens of aircraft across fighter, mobil- choices and major cuts in some areas defense budget has stagnated since Demonstrator (AETD) program, which U.S. AIR FORCE/JEREMY T. LOCK ity and ISR (intelligence, surveillance in order to free up money to continue peaking at $716 billion in fiscal 2019, aims to demonstrate a 45,000-lb.- homeland from attack by combat air- During the next two on-ramp events, and reconnaissance) fleets. The savings to invest in the high-end fight,” Deputy falling to an enacted level of $704 bil- thrust turbofan with three-stream craft and cruise missiles. the Air Force plans to install the com- would be used to fund development of Defense Secretary David Norquist said. lion this fiscal year and edging up to a airflow technology for the Lockheed Overall, requested funding for tac- munications gateway on the Kratos capabilities that mainly would be real- The proposed cuts in fiscal 2021 proposed $705 billion for fiscal 2021. F-35. The lack of a funded transition tical aviation procurement remains XQ-58 Valkyrie, a potential new air- ized only after passing through several could have been worse. With no top-line growth, the Air Force path for adaptive engine technology high in the fiscal 2021 budget submis- borne communications medium for the risk-prone years with an inconsistent An early January backlash by com- is financing an ambitious moderniza- prompted frustrated lawmakers to sion. The Pentagon is seeking to buy Air Force’s different stealth fighters. A military acquisition system. batant commanders forced Air Force tion strategy by leveraging savings slash the AETD budget by $200 million 118 fighters, including five to be pro- similar role also would be demonstrat- Specifically, the Air Force propos- Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein to from early fleet retirements and ter- and chastise the Air Force. With over cured under the Special Operations ed by the Boeing KC-46 tanker. es through fiscal 2025 early retire - walk back even deeper fleet reduc- minating certain upgrades. $400 million committed through fiscal Command’s new Armed Overwatch Ultimately, the Air Force wants to ment of 44 A-10 attack aircraft, built tions, originally worth $30-35 billion “Our adversaries have designed 2024, the NGAP program appears to program. Requested funding for the expand beyond gateways. Once the by Fairchild Republic; 17 B-1 bomb- in operating savings over the next five their forces to exploit our vulnerabil- fund development of a follow-on de- F-35 appears to decline from the fis- service can deploy a seamless and ers, built by Rockwell; 24 Northrop years. The Air Force has declined to ities, and unless we evolve, they will sign, which perhaps could be tailored cal 2020 enacted level, to 79 for next resilient airborne communications Grumman RQ-4 Block 20 and 30 specify which fleets were spared, but someday face a force they have readily to a future twin-engine fighter. year from 98 this year. Still Congress network, the ABMS program plans unmanned aircraft systems (UAS); budget documents released to Con- trained and equipped themselves to Moreover, the Air Force last year tends to insert funding for increased to introduce a cloud-like processing 10 contractor-operated MQ-9 UAS, gress suggest the Lockheed U-2 was defeat,” said Maj. Gen. John Pletcher, reduced the five-year budget for the F-35 purchases each year, including an system, with applications that auto- built by General Atomics; and 16 Mc- involved. The Air Force dismissed a the Air Force’s budget director, speak- Next Generation Air Dominance additional 18 in fiscal 2020. matically perform the role played by Donnell Douglas KC-10 and 13 Boeing reference to a fiscal 2025 retirement ing to reporters on Feb. 10. “We cannot (NGAD) program by half, or $6.6 bil- But service-specific line items for airborne battle managers on the E-8C KC-135 refuelers. date for the high-altitude ISR aircraft allow that to happen.” lion, nixing prospects to launch full- the F-35 reflect new changes in oper- and Boeing E-3 fleets today.c

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Once-Abandoned Light-Attack March 4-5 in Tampa, Florida. To ac- quire the fleet as quickly as possible, Acquisition Revived, Again SOCOM has decided to structure the acquisition on an Other Transaction > SOCOM RELEASES $898 MILLION BUDGET FOR ARMED OVERWATCH Authority contract, which allows gov- ernment buyers to start production > ARMED CROPDUSTERS, TURBOPROP TRAINERS, LIGHT JETS IN MIX quickly after demonstrating a relevant prototype. SOCOM has told industry Steve Trimble Washington and Singapore officials to prepare to begin prototype demonstrations as soon as this summer. .S. Special Operations Command force squadrons. In response, lawmak- SOCOM is considering an acqui- (SOCOM) has revived hopes for ers took the rare step of handing direct sition strategy that splits the pro - Uacquiring a light-attack aircraft appropriation authority for light at- curement into two types of aircraft, fleet only a year after the Air Force tack to SOCOM, which normally relies says Seamus Flatley, vice president abandoned a previous attempt. on the conventional service branches of business development for Iomax, a The Defense Department’s fiscal to acquire aircraft on its behalf. company that offers an armed version 2021 budget request includes $106 Congress approved the new author- of the Thrush 610 cropduster. million for SOCOM to acquire the ity in December, but SOCOM wasted The Armed Overwatch mission first five of potentially 76 light-attack aircraft that could be divided into two fleet types to perform a newly defined Armed Overwatch mission, according to budget documents and industry sources. Overall, SOCOM plans to spend $898 million over the next five years on the Armed Overwatch pro- gram, the documents show. In terms of technical complexity, a light-attack aircraft ranks near the bottom of the list for modern air com- bat platforms, requiring only a propel- ler system for propulsion, off-the-shelf sensors and relatively simple muni- tions. Despite this inherent simplicity, acquiring a light-attack capability has eluded multiple attempts by the Air Force since Air Combat Command de- fined the OA-X requirement in 2008. Previous attempts to procure a light-attack aircraft have yielded only U.S.-fund- The Air Force first sought to ac- ed acquisitions for other countries, such as the Afghan Air Force A-29 (shown), quire a wing of light-attack aircraft but under the Armed Overwatch program it appears a lightly armed observation as counterinsurgency operations in Iraq and Afghanistan were peaking in aircraft finally will be delivered to support U.S. special forces. 2009. But service officials ultimately no time in starting a new acquisition could be split between a category of EYDIE SAKURA/U.S. AIR FORCE canceled the Light Attack and Armed program. Whereas the Air Force de- aircraft similar to an armed Thrush Reconnaissance acquisition program a voted three years to a preacquisition or Air Tractor and a type similar to year later, settling for acquiring a fleet experimental phase, SOCOM stood up an A-29 or Textron Aviation AT-6 of Sierra Nevada/Embraer A-29 Super the Armed Overwatch program within Wolverine. Industry officials also Tucanos initially on behalf of the Af- a month of the fiscal 2020 appropri- plan to offer armed versions of light ghan Air Force. U.S. operations in Iraq ation approval. Within a few weeks, jets including the Textron Scorpion and Afghanistan since have decreased, the SOCOM program office released and Aero L-39. Czech Republic-based but the need for a relatively inexpen- a plan that calls for acquiring the first Aero has teamed with Utah-based sive aircraft that can provide air sup- five aircraft within a year. Boresight to offer a U.S.-assembled, port in low-threat environments, such SOCOM’s streamlined acquisition observation-attack variant of the L-39, as Africa, never went away. bureaucracy allows the service to the U.S. partner confirmed during the A second Air Force attempt to ac- move faster than the conventional Singapore Airshow. quire a light-attack fleet began in 2017, armed services. The Armed Over- Flatley says Air Force Special Op- but progress has been slow. Congres- watch program also does not face com- erations Command told him it is inter- sional frustration finally peaked after petition for funding within SOCOM for ested only in the Iomax aircraft, nick- a January 2019 announcement by the more advanced and expensive require- named Archangel, for Mission Set 2. Air Force, which suspended a planned ments, as would a light-attack pro - An Iomax competitor, Air Tractor’s AT- acquisition program for up to 350 gram within the Air Force system. 802U Longsword team, has confirmed light-attack aircraft to be split between SOCOM has scheduled an Industry it plans to respond to SOCOM’s call for special-operations and conventional air Days event for Armed Overwatch on bidders to attend the Tampa event. c

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST U.S. FISCAL 2021 BUDGET Registration Once-Abandoned Light-Attack March 4-5 in Tampa, Florida. To ac- NOW OPEN! quire the fleet as quickly as possible, Acquisition Revived, Again SOCOM has decided to structure the acquisition on an Other Transaction > SOCOM RELEASES $898 MILLION BUDGET FOR ARMED OVERWATCH Authority contract, which allows gov- ernment buyers to start production > ARMED CROPDUSTERS, TURBOPROP TRAINERS, LIGHT JETS IN MIX quickly after demonstrating a relevant prototype. SOCOM has told industry Steve Trimble Washington and Singapore officials to prepare to begin prototype demonstrations as soon as this summer. .S. Special Operations Command force squadrons. In response, lawmak- SOCOM is considering an acqui- (SOCOM) has revived hopes for ers took the rare step of handing direct sition strategy that splits the pro - Uacquiring a light-attack aircraft appropriation authority for light at- curement into two types of aircraft, fleet only a year after the Air Force tack to SOCOM, which normally relies says Seamus Flatley, vice president abandoned a previous attempt. on the conventional service branches of business development for Iomax, a The Defense Department’s fiscal to acquire aircraft on its behalf. company that offers an armed version 2021 budget request includes $106 Congress approved the new author- of the Thrush 610 cropduster. million for SOCOM to acquire the ity in December, but SOCOM wasted The Armed Overwatch mission first five of potentially 76 light-attack MARCH 9, 2020 aircraft that could be divided into two fleet types to perform a newly defined Beverly Wilshire (A Four Seasons Hotel) Armed Overwatch mission, according Beverly Hills, CA to budget documents and industry sources. Overall, SOCOM plans to spend $898 million over the next five years on the Armed Overwatch pro- gram, the documents show. In terms of technical complexity, a light-attack aircraft ranks near the bottom of the list for modern air com- bat platforms, requiring only a propel- ler system for propulsion, off-the-shelf sensors and relatively simple muni- tions. Despite this inherent simplicity, acquiring a light-attack capability has eluded multiple attempts by the Air Force since Air Combat Command de- fined the OA-X requirement in 2008. Previous attempts to procure a light-attack aircraft have yielded only U.S.-fund- The Air Force first sought to ac- ed acquisitions for other countries, such as the Afghan Air Force A-29 (shown), quire a wing of light-attack aircraft but under the Armed Overwatch program it appears a lightly armed observation as counterinsurgency operations in Iraq and Afghanistan were peaking in aircraft finally will be delivered to support U.S. special forces. 2009. But service officials ultimately no time in starting a new acquisition could be split between a category of EYDIE SAKURA/U.S. AIR FORCE MARCH 9-11, 2020 canceled the Light Attack and Armed program. Whereas the Air Force de- aircraft similar to an armed Thrush Reconnaissance acquisition program a voted three years to a preacquisition or Air Tractor and a type similar to Beverly Wilshire (A Four Seasons Hotel) year later, settling for acquiring a fleet experimental phase, SOCOM stood up an A-29 or Textron Aviation AT-6 Beverly Hills, CA of Sierra Nevada/Embraer A-29 Super the Armed Overwatch program within Wolverine. Industry officials also Tucanos initially on behalf of the Af- a month of the fiscal 2020 appropri- plan to offer armed versions of light ghan Air Force. U.S. operations in Iraq ation approval. Within a few weeks, jets including the Textron Scorpion and Afghanistan since have decreased, the SOCOM program office released and Aero L-39. Czech Republic-based but the need for a relatively inexpen- a plan that calls for acquiring the first Aero has teamed with Utah-based Join Us at these Upcoming A&D Events Conference Delegate Profile: sive aircraft that can provide air sup- five aircraft within a year. Boresight to offer a U.S.-assembled, port in low-threat environments, such SOCOM’s streamlined acquisition observation-attack variant of the L-39, Delegates at both the Aerospace Raw Materials & Manufacturers Supply Chain 2% 10% Conference Commercial Aviation Industry Suppliers Conference 26% Other as Africa, never went away. bureaucracy allows the service to the U.S. partner confirmed during the and will hear C-Level Executives A second Air Force attempt to ac- move faster than the conventional Singapore Airshow. from industry experts and manufacturers on the state of the industry, material and Managers 14% quire a light-attack fleet began in 2017, armed services. The Armed Over- Flatley says Air Force Special Op- technology advancements, and achievements. If you are interested in having a but progress has been slow. Congres- watch program also does not face com- erations Command told him it is inter- Presidents better understanding of aircraft programs and their production cycles, market sional frustration finally peaked after petition for funding within SOCOM for ested only in the Iomax aircraft, nick- a January 2019 announcement by the more advanced and expensive require- named Archangel, for Mission Set 2. forecasts and delivery updates, these are the Conferences you won’t want to miss. Air Force, which suspended a planned ments, as would a light-attack pro - An Iomax competitor, Air Tractor’s AT- acquisition program for up to 350 gram within the Air Force system. 802U Longsword team, has confirmed For more information, please visit: SpeedNews.com/conferences light-attack aircraft to be split between SOCOM has scheduled an Industry it plans to respond to SOCOM’s call for 20% 28% bidders to attend the Tampa event. c VPS special-operations and conventional air Days event for Armed Overwatch on Directors

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST U.S. FISCAL 2021 BUDGET

MDA Embarks on a New Generation of Missile Defense

> NO FUNDING REQUESTED FOR 20 PREVIOUSLY PLANNED GBIs > AGENCY IS STUDYING USE OF THAAD AND AEGIS SYSTEMS FOR HOMELAND DEFENSE

Jen DiMascio Washington he Pentagon is in the midst of a to include more sophisticated ballistic massive upgrade of its Ground- missiles and hypersonic weaponry. Tbased Midcourse Defense The MDA is poised to issue a classi- (GMD) system, designed to protect fied request for proposals to sponsor the U.S. against an attack by an ICBM. two contractors through a preliminary The new Next-Generation In- design review (PDR) of a new inter- terceptor (NGI) would modernize ceptor and kill vehicle—the part of the GMD, arming it with an all-up round interceptor that defeats an incoming that can counter more sophisticated missile while in space. MDA Director ICBMs. In pursuing the new program, Vice Adm. Jon Hill says the agency the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) plans to award contracts by the end Ground-based Interceptors will end the planned purchase of 20 of 2020, with the intention of starting are emplaced in silos at current-generation GMD Ground- testing in the mid-2020s and putting Fort Greeley, Alaska. Based Interceptors (GBI), after al- NGIs in silos by 2027, 2028 or beyond. ready having canceled a key aspect “Right now we’re funded through of that system, the Redesigned Kill PDR, and you know there’s plenty of Vehicle (RKV). While it works on NGI, arguments out there that you [have] got By August 2019, Mike Griffin, the Pen- the MDA also intends to supplement to go all the way to the [critical design tagon’s top research and engineering its defense of the U.S. against ICBMs review (CDR)]. We’ll have that conver- official, stopped work on the RKV after with shorter-range interceptors that sation when the time is right,” says Hill. the MDA had spent more than $1 bil- provide regional defense. The release of the budget solidifies lion to develop it, as it was not proving The change in course will not be a plan that has been slowly percolating to be reliable. These RKVs were to ride cheap. GMD itself has cost more than in the background. Last March, Boe- atop the next 20 GBIs, a project over- $68 billion over its lifetime. In its fiscal ing was put on notice after the RKV—a seen and integrated by Boeing, which 2021 budget request, the MDA is asking projectile launched by the GBI booster Congress had approved in 2018 after for $664 million in fiscal 2021 for NGI that is tasked with locating and defeat- a spate of North Korean missile tests. In concert with ending the RKV, entaon det Reest or Congress rerouted that funding to the ISSILE DEENSEDEEA RORAS NGI, and the MDA conducted a review $14 of options for the interceptor. Coming out of that assessment, budget offi- 12 12.0 cials say they will not buy the 20 new 11.6 11.6 GBIs as the military embarks on NGI 10 9.9 10.1 development. New NGIs are so far be- 9.1 9.0 9.2 ing planned to be placed in silos that 8 8.5 8.8 8.5 8.2 were to be inhabited by GBIs, accord- 6 ing to Hill. “The current intention is for the Next-Generation Interceptors

U.S. $ billions $ U.S. 4 to be able to work with both current and future sensor systems,” says MDA 2 spokesman Mark Wright. From a security standpoint, existing 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201 2019 2020 2021 GBIs will still protect the U.S. from for- Fiscal Year eign missile threats, says Hill, but he adds that over time their reliability will Source: Defense Department begin to fall off. While the NGI program and another $4.3 billion through fiscal ing the incoming ICBM in space—did works its way through development, the 2025. It is an amount that will grow not meet the needs of its CDR. The MDA plans to supplement GMD with over time and that some worry could Government Accountability Office not- a layered network of theater-range pull funding from other urgent priori- ed problems with the program meeting systems—the Terminal High-Altitude ties, as the type and number of missile its cost and schedule goals “with no Area Defense System (THAAD) and the threats from other countries evolves signs of arresting these trends.” Aegis Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) Block

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MDA Embarks on a New Generation DEFENSE DEPARTMENT get request was flat for fiscal 2021, a trend likely to continue. In the years of Missile Defense ahead, the military will have big bills for its nuclear modernization budget > NO FUNDING REQUESTED FOR 20 PREVIOUSLY PLANNED GBIs and to recapitalize its conventional forces, which will hit about the time > AGENCY IS STUDYING USE OF THAAD AND AEGIS SYSTEMS budgets for NGI would need to swell FOR HOMELAND DEFENSE to support procurement of the system. Meanwhile, in the near-to-midterm, Jen DiMascio Washington the U.S. is likely to be dealing with a limited North Korean threat. Over he Pentagon is in the midst of a to include more sophisticated ballistic time, the threats will grow in number massive upgrade of its Ground- missiles and hypersonic weaponry. and sophistication. Given challenges Tbased Midcourse Defense The MDA is poised to issue a classi- with the budget—not to mention (GMD) system, designed to protect fied request for proposals to sponsor technical challenges with developing the U.S. against an attack by an ICBM. two contractors through a preliminary a successful kill vehicle—Rose won- The new Next-Generation In- design review (PDR) of a new inter- ders if that money could be applied terceptor (NGI) would modernize ceptor and kill vehicle—the part of the elsewhere. GMD, arming it with an all-up round interceptor that defeats an incoming Kingston Reif, director of disar- that can counter more sophisticated missile while in space. MDA Director mament and threat reduction poli- ICBMs. In pursuing the new program, Vice Adm. Jon Hill says the agency cy at the Arms Control Association, the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) plans to award contracts by the end Ground-based Interceptors is skeptical the MDA can deliver an will end the planned purchase of 20 of 2020, with the intention of starting are emplaced in silos at NGI on its current timeline. “Congress current-generation GMD Ground- testing in the mid-2020s and putting Fort Greeley, Alaska. must be extremely wary of allowing Based Interceptors (GBI), after al- NGIs in silos by 2027, 2028 or beyond. the Pentagon to repeat the mistakes ready having canceled a key aspect “Right now we’re funded through that have plagued the GMD system in of that system, the Redesigned Kill PDR, and you know there’s plenty of the past,” he says. “In particular, the Vehicle (RKV). While it works on NGI, arguments out there that you [have] got By August 2019, Mike Griffin, the Pen- 2A—to fill any gaps in defending the U.S. state. That involves developing hard- development, procurement and field- the MDA also intends to supplement to go all the way to the [critical design tagon’s top research and engineering from North Korean missile attacks. ware and software and conducting ing of the NGI should not be sched- its defense of the U.S. against ICBMs review (CDR)]. We’ll have that conver- official, stopped work on the RKV after “What this budget really does for us demonstrations leading to a flight test ule-driven but based on the maturi- with shorter-range interceptors that sation when the time is right,” says Hill. the MDA had spent more than $1 bil- is it starts to say, ‘Let’s take advantage in fiscal 2023. ty of the technology and successful provide regional defense. The release of the budget solidifies lion to develop it, as it was not proving of these regional systems that have One other potential gap in the mis- testing under operationally realistic The change in course will not be a plan that has been slowly percolating to be reliable. These RKVs were to ride been so successful and are very flexi- sile defense architecture is in Pacif- conditions. Accelerating development cheap. GMD itself has cost more than in the background. Last March, Boe- atop the next 20 GBIs, a project over- ble and deployable,’” Hill says. ic-based radars that would have cued programs risks saddling them with $68 billion over its lifetime. In its fiscal ing was put on notice after the RKV—a seen and integrated by Boeing, which In 2020, the MDA will test the SM-3 GBIs to protect against an attack on cost overruns, schedule delays, test 2021 budget request, the MDA is asking projectile launched by the GBI booster Congress had approved in 2018 after Block 2A missile against an ICBM. Hawaii. failures and program cancellations— for $664 million in fiscal 2021 for NGI that is tasked with locating and defeat- a spate of North Korean missile tests. “When we prove that we can take The “Pacific radar is no longer in as has been the case with the GMD In concert with ending the RKV, out an ICBM with an Aegis ship or an our budget,” Hill says. Today, for - program and other missile defense entaon det Reest or Congress rerouted that funding to the Aegis Ashore site with an SM-3 Block ward-deployed AN/TPY-2 radars programs to date.” ISSILE DEENSEDEEA RORAS NGI, and the MDA conducted a review 2A, then you want to ramp up the evo- and a deployable (sea-based X-band) The expansion of U.S. homeland $14 of options for the interceptor. Coming lution of the threat on the target side, radar work with the GMD system in missile defense may be viewed as a out of that assessment, budget offi- right? We’ll want to go against more that region. Plus, Aegis ships can be provocation by Russia and China “and 12 12.0 cials say they will not buy the 20 new complex threats,” Hill says. repositioned, he adds. “We realize we likely prompt them to consider steps 11.6 11.6 GBIs as the military embarks on NGI That will require upgrading the com- need to take another look at that ar- to further enhance the survivability of 10 9.9 10.1 development. New NGIs are so far be- bat system used by Aegis ships so it chitecture,” he says, which will focus their nuclear arsenals in ways that will 9.1 9.0 9.2 ing planned to be placed in silos that can process data from new sensors and on the Pacific region. undermine the security of the United 8 8.5 8.8 8.5 8.2 were to be inhabited by GBIs, accord- engage with a missile. Adding the abil- Missile defense experts are not un- States and its allies,” Reif says. “The 6 ing to Hill. “The current intention is ity to launch SM-3 Block 2A missiles supportive of the effort to build a new costs and risks of expanding the U.S. for the Next-Generation Interceptors on ships or from Aegis Ashore sites NGI. But they do question whether homeland defense footprint in this

U.S. $ billions $ U.S. 4 to be able to work with both current will give combatant commanders the the cost will leach funding for other way greatly outweigh the benefits.” and future sensor systems,” says MDA additional flexibility they have sought, important priorities. But like all proposals, it will be up to 2 spokesman Mark Wright. he adds. A future commander could Frank Rose, a senior fellow at the lawmakers to decide and is likely to be From a security standpoint, existing then choose to launch a GBI, THAAD, Brookings Institution, points out that a point of interest in the year ahead. 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201 2019 2020 2021 GBIs will still protect the U.S. from for- SM-3 or, when it is ready, NGI. GBIs are built using 1990s technolo- “This is the single biggest muscle Fiscal Year eign missile threats, says Hill, but he Such an interim solution using re- gy and as a development prototype movement in the 2021 budget propos- adds that over time their reliability will gional systems is still far from a reality. tasked for an operational mission. al, and Congress will be scrutinizing Source: Defense Department begin to fall off. While the NGI program The Pentagon is requesting $139 That means that requirements such as carefully whether the administration and another $4.3 billion through fiscal ing the incoming ICBM in space—did works its way through development, the million in its fiscal 2021 budget to “ini- reliability, survivability and suitability has a compelling vision and realistic 2025. It is an amount that will grow not meet the needs of its CDR. The MDA plans to supplement GMD with tiate the development and demonstra- were afterthoughts. funding stream for the short, medium over time and that some worry could Government Accountability Office not- a layered network of theater-range tion of a new interceptor prototype to Despite the sound logic involved in and long term,” says Tom Karako, di- pull funding from other urgent priori- ed problems with the program meeting systems—the Terminal High-Altitude support contiguous U.S. defense as moving toward a new interceptor, “I rector of the missile defense project ties, as the type and number of missile its cost and schedule goals “with no Area Defense System (THAAD) and the part of the tiered homeland defense see a couple of challenges,” he says. at the Center for Strategic and Inter- threats from other countries evolves signs of arresting these trends.” Aegis Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) Block effort,” the MDA’s budget materials That includes that the Pentagon’s bud- national Studies. c

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 53 U.S. FISCAL 2021 BUDGET STARRY-EYED

> MOON AND MARS EXPLORATION ARE TOP NASA BUDGET PRIORITIES > THE PLAN DELAYS THE SLS UPGRADE

Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral

im Bridenstine, the ever-buoyant head of NASA, was almost giddy when he unveiled President JDonald Trump’s budget request for the fi scal year beginning Oct. 1, which would hike the agency’s share of federal spending to more than $25.2 billion—about 12% more than its current allocation. “This is one of [the] strongest budgets in NASA histo- ry. . . . It is up to us to deliver,” Bridenstine said during a televised address from NASA’s Stennis Space Center The core stage for the in Mississippi, where the core stage for the agency’s fi rst  rst Space Launch System Space Launch System (SLS) rocket is being prepared for Moon rocket was lowered a static engine fi ring later this year. The SLS is a key but expensive part of NASA’s plan into a test stand at Stennis to expand human presence beyond low Earth orbit, an Space Center in Mississippi initiative intended to lead to astronaut missions to Mars for a static test  ring in the 2030s, following a series of expeditions to the lunar later this year. surface and establishment of a small outpost in lunar orbit under the Artemis program. Although NASA has been largely spared from divisive and derisive partisan politics, it may be a hard sell—partic- ularly during an election year—for Congress to buy in to a Trump-backed expedited Moon program that skeptics view

NASA Budget Spotlights turn and Mars Ice Mapper missions. The sample-return initiative, a cooperative eŸ ort with the European Space Exploration, Not Science Agency that is planned for a 2026 launch, would follow the Mars 2020 rover scheduled to launch this summer. The MISSION TO MAP MARS ICE PROPOSED rover is expected to reach Jezero Crater, an ancient lake > and river delta on Mars, in February 2021 to seek out evi- > BUDGET PLAN SHRINKS SCIENCE SPENDING 12% dence of past habitable environments as well as to gather and cache samples of rocks and soil for return to Earth. Mark Carreau Houston The sample-return mission would feature a lander and robot-arm-equipped rover to collect the Mars 2020 rover big boost in spending for human exploration at NASA samples, the fi rst-ever rocket to launch from the Martian comes at a cost to the agency’s science programs, surface and a Mars orbiter to stow the samples for a return Awhich would take a 12% cut under the budget proposed to Earth, perhaps by 2031. by President Donald Trump for the fi scal year beginning Oct. 1. The 2021 NASA science budget proposal seeks $232.6 mil- The spending plan, unveiled Feb. 10, includes a third at- lion to advance work on the Sample-Return and Ice Mapper tempt at canceling the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope missions, with spending to rise to $775 million by fi scal 2025. ( Wfi rst), a companion to the James Webb Space Telescope Other features of the 2021 NASA science budget proposal for the exploration of dark energy and the search for chem- include continued development of the Europa Clipper, a mis- ical biosignatures in the atmospheres of planets beyond the sion to conduct a succession of close fl ybys of the ocean-bear- Solar System. Congress has consistently restored funding for ing moon of Jupiter to further assess its potential for life. Wfi rst, as well as for the Stratospheric Observatory for Infra- Congress wants NASA to launch the Clipper on the Space red Astronomy that the White House again seeks to cancel. Launch System, which would shave 3.5 years oŸ its journey Trump’s budget request of $25.2 billion for NASA—a 12% but cost an extra $1.5 billion over commercial alternatives. hike over current levels—includes $6.3 billion for science, an Overall NASA science spending would increase but $832.4 million, or 11.6%, reduction from current spending. would not return to the 2020 level through fiscal 2025, The plan includes funding to begin the Mars Sample-Re- budget documents show. c

5 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST U.S. FISCAL 2021 BUDGET

as timed to coincide with his possible second term in o™ ce. than $34 billion—but also earmarks more than $3.3 billion STARRY-EYED For example, in December, NASA received just $600 mil- to begin developing human-class landing systems, the long lion of a requested $1 billion to start work on human-class pole in the Trump administration’s call to return astro- lunar landers. Then in January, the space and aeronautics nauts to the Moon in 2024. > MOON AND MARS EXPLORATION subcommittee of the House Committee on Science, Space Ultimately, the agency says it will need to spend $21.3 ARE TOP NASA BUDGET PRIORITIES and Technology passed a bipartisan bill that moves the billion on human-class landers over the next fi ve years, not 2024 lunar landing deadline to 2028, which was NASA’s including an undetermined amount from industry partners > THE PLAN DELAYS THE SLS UPGRADE original plan before Vice President Mike Pence last year that have yet to be selected. Three companies confi rmed told the agency to cut four years oŸ the program. they submitted proposals in November in response to a Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral Instead, the House version of the NASA Authorization NASA Broad Agency Announcement to develop and demon- Act of 2020 calls for the space agency to develop tech- strate a Human Landing System (HLS). The contenders im Bridenstine, the ever-buoyant head of NASA, nologies and systems to put astronauts into orbit around are: Boeing; Blue Origin, which is partnering with Northrop was almost giddy when he unveiled President Mars by 2033. It also repudiates NASA’s plan to develop Grumman, Lockheed Martin and Draper Laboratory; and JDonald Trump’s budget request for the fi scal year the human lunar lander under partnering agreements and Dynetics—which on Jan. 31 became a wholly owned sub- beginning Oct. 1, which would hike the agency’s share of commercial fl ight service contracts. sidiary of Leidos—partnering with Sierra Nevada Corp. federal spending to more than $25.2 billion—about 12% “This bill is not about rejecting the Artemis program or A fourth proposal is believed to have been submitted more than its current allocation. delaying humans on the Moon until 2028,” subcommittee by SpaceX, but the company declined to comment. Two “This is one of [the] strongest budgets in NASA histo- Chairwoman Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Okla.) said at the Jan. or more awards are expected in late March or early April, ry. . . . It is up to us to deliver,” Bridenstine said during 29 hearing. Rather, it aims to take “the fi scally responsible NASA noted on its procurement website on Feb. 10. a televised address from NASA’s Stennis Space Center The core stage for the approach of focusing the Moon eŸ orts on the goal of being Under fi scal 2021-25 budget plans, the HLS would con- in Mississippi, where the core stage for the agency’s fi rst  rst Space Launch System the fi rst nation to set foot on Mars,” she said. “NASA can sume nearly two-thirds of the $35 billion NASA says it needs Space Launch System (SLS) rocket is being prepared for still work to safely get there sooner.” to stage a 2024 human mission to the Moon, the fi rst crewed Moon rocket was lowered a static engine fi ring later this year. Bridenstine, a former U.S. Representative from Okla- lunar landing since the end of the Apollo program in 1972. The SLS is a key but expensive part of NASA’s plan into a test stand at Stennis homa, and his team remain undaunted. The proposal, however, delays funding for a more pow- to expand human presence beyond low Earth orbit, an Space Center in Mississippi “Jim [Bridenstine] has created this [one-NASA] ap- erful, four-engine upper stage for the SLS Block 1B con- initiative intended to lead to astronaut missions to Mars for a static test  ring proach,” says Deputy Administrator Jim Morhard. “It’s fi guration, intended to replace the single-engine Interim in the 2030s, following a series of expeditions to the lunar later this year. a proven strategy that has gotten bipartisan support so Cryogenic Propulsion Stage on the SLS Block 1. With one surface and establishment of a small outpost in lunar orbit far. . . . All parties should have full confi dence that we’re fl ight planned per year, NASA now pegs the cost of sus- under the Artemis program. continuing to move forward to the Moon.” taining the SLS-Orion program at $2 billion annually, ac- Although NASA has been largely spared from divisive The fi scal 2021 budget request released Feb. 10 not only cording to Brian Dewhurst, resource management o™ cer

and derisive partisan politics, it may be a hard sell—partic- NASASS continues $4 billion annually for the long-delayed SLS, the for NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations division. ularly during an election year—for Congress to buy in to a Orion deep-space crew capsule and related ground-support The launch date for the fi rst SLS-Orion mission, an un- Trump-backed expedited Moon program that skeptics view systems—programs that already have consumed more crewed trial run around the Moon, is under review. c

NASA Budget Spotlights turn and Mars Ice Mapper missions. The sample-return Aeronautics Budget Advances Electrified initiative, a cooperative eŸ ort with the European Space ESAER Exploration, Not Science Agency that is planned for a 2026 launch, would follow the Aircraft Propulsion Focus Mars 2020 rover scheduled to launch this summer. The > MISSION TO MAP MARS ICE PROPOSED rover is expected to reach Jezero Crater, an ancient lake > ELECTRIFIED POWERTRAIN FLIGHT and river delta on Mars, in February 2021 to seek out evi- DEMONSTRATION PLANNED > BUDGET PLAN SHRINKS SCIENCE SPENDING 12% dence of past habitable environments as well as to gather and cache samples of rocks and soil for return to Earth. > INCREASED EMPHASIS ON URBAN AIR MOBILITY NASA plans to develop electri ed propulsion Mark Carreau Houston The sample-return mission would feature a lander and for a future ultrae cient narrowbody airliner. robot-arm-equipped rover to collect the Mars 2020 rover Graham Warwick Washington big boost in spending for human exploration at NASA samples, the fi rst-ever rocket to launch from the Martian the X-57 Maxwell distributed electric propulsion demonstra- comes at a cost to the agency’s science programs, surface and a Mars orbiter to stow the samples for a return ASA plans to launch an electric propulsion X-plane tor in its fi nal, Mod 4, form with a new optimized wing with Awhich would take a 12% cut under the budget proposed to Earth, perhaps by 2031. program in fi scal 2021 as a follow-on to the X-59A wingtip cruise propulsors and leading-edge high-lift propel- by President Donald Trump for the fi scal year beginning Oct. 1. The 2021 NASA science budget proposal seeks $232.6 mil- NQueSTT low-boom supersonic fl ight demonstrator, lers. The X-57 is scheduled to make its fi rst fl ight this year. The spending plan, unveiled Feb. 10, includes a third at- lion to advance work on the Sample-Return and Ice Mapper which is now scheduled to fl y by January 2022. Also in 2021, the Advanced Air Mobility project is to tempt at canceling the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope missions, with spending to rise to $775 million by fi scal 2025. Funding to begin the Electrified Powertrain Flight move from the Airspace Operations and Safety Program to ( Wfi rst), a companion to the James Webb Space Telescope Other features of the 2021 NASA science budget proposal Demonstration (EPFD) project is included in the $819 mil- the Integrated Aviation Systems Program, so as to manage for the exploration of dark energy and the search for chem- include continued development of the Europa Clipper, a mis- lion sought for aeronautics research in 2021, an increase of large complex fl ight demonstrations beginning with NASA’s ical biosignatures in the atmospheres of planets beyond the sion to conduct a succession of close fl ybys of the ocean-bear- 4.5% over the funding enacted for 2020. Urban Air Mobility Grand Challenge. Solar System. Congress has consistently restored funding for ing moon of Jupiter to further assess its potential for life. But the 2021 request moves $117 million in funding for In preparation for the EPFD project, the Advanced Air Wfi rst, as well as for the Stratospheric Observatory for Infra- Congress wants NASA to launch the Clipper on the Space ground-test capabilities such as wind tunnels back under Vehicles Program plans in 2021 to conduct ground-testing of red Astronomy that the White House again seeks to cancel. Launch System, which would shave 3.5 years oŸ its journey the Aeronautics Mission Research Directorate. Excluding a fl ight-weight megawatt-class electric inverter under simu- Trump’s budget request of $25.2 billion for NASA—a 12% but cost an extra $1.5 billion over commercial alternatives. this accounting change, funding requested for NASA’s other lated 30,000-ft.-altitude conditions in the NASA Electric Air- hike over current levels—includes $6.3 billion for science, an Overall NASA science spending would increase but aeronautics programs is reduced to $702 million. craft Testbed. It will also complete the critical design review $832.4 million, or 11.6%, reduction from current spending. would not return to the 2020 level through fiscal 2025, Funding sought for 2021 would complete preparations to on a project to demonstrate large-scale power extraction The plan includes funding to begin the Mars Sample-Re- budget documents show. c fl y the Lockheed Martin Skunk Works-built X-59 and to fl y from the high- and low-pressure spools of a turbofan. c

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56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 57 EDITORIAL

Full Circle

f ever there were an illustration of government sup- gram costs escalated to more than $6 billion, too much port distorting markets, it would be Bombardier and for a company of Bombardier’s size. Flawed execution Iits C Series, now the Airbus A220. With its decision to and competitive plays delayed orders and deliveries. The exit commercial aircraft, sell its rail transportation unit Quebec government stepped up in 2016 with a $1.3 billion and focus solely on business aviation, the Canadian com- equity investment in the program, but in 2018 Bombardier pany has come full circle. handed over control of the C Series to Airbus. Bombardier entered aviation in 1986 when the Montre- The C Series triggered a fi ve-year turnaround e¢ ort al-based snowmobile manufacturer acquired loss-making that has seen Bombardier sell o¢ most of the aviation Canadair from the Ottawa government for C$120 million businesses acquired and built up with that government (about $90 million at the time). With it came the Challeng- support, including de Havilland Canada, Shorts, the CRJ er business jet, on which government-owned Canadair and now all of the A220 program, raising more than $3.4 had spent C$1.5 billion. billion in cash and o¤ oading more than $1.1 billion in debt Over the next six years, Bombardier acquired North- and other liabilities to shore up its fi nances. ern Ireland-based Short Brothers and de Havilland The C Series also triggered a wholesale reshaping Canada for less than $90 mil- of the airliner manufacturing lion combined, and it received industry, causing Airbus and more than $1.6 billion in support LEAVE INDUSTRY TO CARRY Boeing to launch the A320neo from the Ottawa, Ontario and and 737 MAX families and lead- UK governments. It also bought ing long-time rival Embraer into bankrupt Learjet for $75 million, THE RISK OF DEVELOPING a planned commercial-aircraft cementing its reputation as a joint venture with Boeing. shrewd dealmaker. NEW PRODUCTS. There are upsides to this up- What the governments saw heaval. Airlines are receiving a in return, in the place of failing new generation of fuel-efficient businesses, was an aerospace powerhouse that had airliners more quickly than they would have otherwise. turned its $255 million in knock-down purchases into Montreal’s aerospace cluster has gained Airbus as an- $10 billion in annual revenues by 2009 and a workforce other OEM. The A220 is proving itself a good aircraft. that, at its peak of 32,250 in 2001, encompassed more And the likelihood of those government loans being than half the Canadian industry. paid off has increased. Not surprisingly, the governments were willing to con- But with the decision to sell o¢ its rail unit, Bombardier tinue providing support in the form of both launch aid is returning to its aviation roots as a business aircraft and export credit. And it was a successful partnership: manufacturer with a workforce barely larger than it was Bombardier in 2019 said it had repaid $790 million in in the early 1990s. It is hard to see where the company royalties on $596 million of reimbursable loans received could have taken a di¢ erent route, but it has been a roll- between 1986 and 2009. With 1,950 aircraft sold, the $180 er-coaster ride, and the governments involved must take million received in support for the CRJ program had some of the responsibility for enabling the decision that alone repaid $315 million, it said. took Bombardier to its heights and brought it back down. But government confi dence in Bombardier proved less When governments subsidize product development, well placed when it came to the C Series, its fi rst large they play with market forces. They do so at the entire in- commercial aircraft. Developing the 110-150-seater, in dustry’s peril, tilting the competitive landscape with un- parallel with the Global 7500 business jet, required much predictable results. It would be better for governments larger loans—a total of $816 million in 2009 and 2017, to leave industry to carry the risk of developing new plus about $150 million from the UK. products and instead focus their support on developing The C Series would not have been launched without the enabling technologies. The payo¢ could be greater. that government support, and it was not enough. Pro- The need certainly is. c AR ANADA

58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST EDITORIAL DISCOVER ANALYZE PLAN Full Circle FORECAST f ever there were an illustration of government sup- gram costs escalated to more than $6 billion, too much port distorting markets, it would be Bombardier and for a company of Bombardier’s size. Flawed execution Iits C Series, now the Airbus A220. With its decision to and competitive plays delayed orders and deliveries. The exit commercial aircraft, sell its rail transportation unit Quebec government stepped up in 2016 with a $1.3 billion and focus solely on business aviation, the Canadian com- equity investment in the program, but in 2018 Bombardier pany has come full circle. handed over control of the C Series to Airbus. Bombardier entered aviation in 1986 when the Montre- The C Series triggered a fi ve-year turnaround e¢ ort al-based snowmobile manufacturer acquired loss-making that has seen Bombardier sell o¢ most of the aviation Canadair from the Ottawa government for C$120 million businesses acquired and built up with that government (about $90 million at the time). With it came the Challeng- support, including de Havilland Canada, Shorts, the CRJ er business jet, on which government-owned Canadair and now all of the A220 program, raising more than $3.4 had spent C$1.5 billion. billion in cash and o¤ oading more than $1.1 billion in debt Over the next six years, Bombardier acquired North- and other liabilities to shore up its fi nances. ern Ireland-based Short Brothers and de Havilland The C Series also triggered a wholesale reshaping Canada for less than $90 mil- of the airliner manufacturing lion combined, and it received industry, causing Airbus and more than $1.6 billion in support LEAVE INDUSTRY TO CARRY Boeing to launch the A320neo from the Ottawa, Ontario and and 737 MAX families and lead- UK governments. It also bought ing long-time rival Embraer into bankrupt Learjet for $75 million, THE RISK OF DEVELOPING a planned commercial-aircraft cementing its reputation as a joint venture with Boeing. shrewd dealmaker. NEW PRODUCTS. There are upsides to this up- Predictive Intelligence What the governments saw heaval. Airlines are receiving a in return, in the place of failing new generation of fuel-efficient businesses, was an aerospace powerhouse that had airliners more quickly than they would have otherwise. turned its $255 million in knock-down purchases into Montreal’s aerospace cluster has gained Airbus as an- to Drive Results $10 billion in annual revenues by 2009 and a workforce other OEM. The A220 is proving itself a good aircraft. that, at its peak of 32,250 in 2001, encompassed more And the likelihood of those government loans being than half the Canadian industry. paid off has increased. Not surprisingly, the governments were willing to con- But with the decision to sell o¢ its rail unit, Bombardier tinue providing support in the form of both launch aid is returning to its aviation roots as a business aircraft and export credit. And it was a successful partnership: manufacturer with a workforce barely larger than it was Bombardier in 2019 said it had repaid $790 million in in the early 1990s. It is hard to see where the company With Aviation Week Network’s 2020 Fleet & MRO Forecast, royalties on $596 million of reimbursable loans received could have taken a di¢ erent route, but it has been a roll- between 1986 and 2009. With 1,950 aircraft sold, the $180 er-coaster ride, and the governments involved must take gain a 10-year outlook to minimize risk and maximize revenue. million received in support for the CRJ program had some of the responsibility for enabling the decision that alone repaid $315 million, it said. took Bombardier to its heights and brought it back down. • Fleets, trends, and projections But government confi dence in Bombardier proved less When governments subsidize product development, well placed when it came to the C Series, its fi rst large they play with market forces. They do so at the entire in- • Predictive view of market share commercial aircraft. Developing the 110-150-seater, in dustry’s peril, tilting the competitive landscape with un- parallel with the Global 7500 business jet, required much predictable results. It would be better for governments • MRO future demand larger loans—a total of $816 million in 2009 and 2017, to leave industry to carry the risk of developing new plus about $150 million from the UK. products and instead focus their support on developing The C Series would not have been launched without the enabling technologies. The payo¢ could be greater. Take your business to the next level. that government support, and it was not enough. Pro- The need certainly is. c

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58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/FEBRUARY 24-MARCH 8, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST Dr. Mohammad Nasser Al Ahbabi The Honorable Barbara M. Barrett James Bridenstine Leanne Caret Director General Secretary Administrator Executive Vice President United Arab Emirates Space Agency United States Air Force NASA The Boeing Company (UAESA) President and Chief Executive Offi cer, Defense, Space and Security

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