THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA NATIONAL FIVE YEAR DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2021/22 - 2025/26 “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development”
MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND PLANNING June 2021
THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA
NATIONAL FIVE-YEAR DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2021/22–2025/26
Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development
MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND PLANNING JUNE 2021
“My call to Tanzanians, let us collaborate, unite and be one in building our Nation. Personally, I believe, with love, solidarity and mutual respect, and with the help of GOD, we will be able to get to where we all aspire to be.”
Mama Samia Suluhu Hassan, President of the United Republic of Tanzania addressing the 12th Parliament of the United Republic of Tanzania, 22 April 2021.
“Let me assure you that we will implement all strategic projects and develop new projects and fortunately we have included all strategic projects in the Five-Year National Development Plan 2021/22 - 2025/26 which we will start implementing in July this year. Therefore, I am confident that all projects will be implemented as planned in the sense of efficiency while focusing on the efficient use of financial resources”.
Mama Samia Suluhu Hassan, President of the United Republic of Tanzania, Labour Day Celebrations, 01 May 2021
KEYNOTE
As our country achieves the status of a middle-income economy, the impetus is placed on continuing
It is with a great privilege and honour that I introduce to build a Competitive and the Third National Five Year Development Plan (FYDP Industrial Economy for Human III; 2021/22 – 2025/26). The Plan is a continuation of Government’s efforts in achieving the goals we Development to achieve the set in the National Development Vision 2025 of our objectives of the vision with the enduring exertion to further improve the standard of following qualities: improving the living for all Tanzanians. living conditions of Tanzanians; My fellow Tanzanians, we should understand that later the existence of peace, security this year (9th December 2021) our country will celebrate sixty (60) years of our independence as a nation, and and unity; good governance fifty-nine (59) years as a Republic. Since we gained and the rule of law; the existence our independence, we have continued to translate our political emancipation into socioeconomic of an educated and learning freedom for human development. We believe that society; and building a strong and freedom and development are closely related and competitive economy. interdependent. That is, without freedom one cannot have development, and without development it is obvious that one’s freedom will be lost.
The Sixth Phase Government under my leadership, recognizes the inseparability of freedom and development, which has guided our history and national development efforts. Indeed, in order to effectively translate the political independence into the development of all Tanzanians, we realised that protecting our freedom is our sole responsibility, and we can best protect it through self-reliance. Furthermore, self-reliance comes from our own home-grown efforts and capabilities, while at the same time we proactively learn success stories from abroad, to achieve the development we define and seek. By recognising that inclusive development is an essential prerequisite for sustainable National prosperity, we have prepared strategies that spur broad-based development, while aiming at ensuring the development resulting from our efforts that benefit all Tanzanians.
The National Development Vision 2025 has been implemented through various Programs and The Long-Term Perspective Plan 2011/12 - 2025/26 whose implementation was divided into three phases of the Five-Year National Development Plans. The First Five Year National Development Plan 2011/12 - 2015/16 had a theme of unleashing growth potentials by de-bottlenecking binding constraints to growth. The Second Five Year National Development Plan 2016/17 - 2020/21 focused on nurturing industrialisation for economic
v transformation and human development. The Third and final Five-Year National Development Plan 2021/22 - 2025/26 have a theme of realising competitiveness and industrialization for human development that aims to increase efficiency and productivity in manufacturing using the resources available in abundance within the country.
It should be noted that, this Plan is the final Plan in the implementation of the Tanzania Development Vision 2025 as the National overall development framework. As our country has achieved the status of a middle-income economy which is an incentive that is placed on continuing to build a Competitive and Industrial Economy for Human Development to achieve the goals of the Vision with the following attributes: improving the living conditions of Tanzanians; the existence of peace, security and unity; good governance and the rule of law; the existence of well - educated and learning society; and building a strong and competitive economy.
Our country’s economy has continued to be strong and resilient that is supported by prudent micro and macro-economic policies, where the FYDP II implementation evaluation has shown that economic growth averaging about 6.9 percent throughout the period while inflation rate averaged at less than 5 percent during the period between 2016/17 2020/21. The Nation maintained adequate levels of foreign exchange reserves as well as sustainable national debt and a stable financial system, despite having a global pandemic of COVID-19 that affected economies of various countries in the world.
Notwithstanding the successes we have achieved due to the existence of effective policies that aimed at strengthening the economy, our country still continues to witness poverty. In addition, income and expenditure disparities continue to exist in our communities, being as one of the major risks in achieving the intended goals of the National Development Vision. Among the reasons for the slowdown of attaining the intended targets include: climate change including floods that affected basic infrastructure; outbreak of diseases including COVID-19 that affected trade and investment; low productivity and limited growth of primary sectors; limited private sector participation in various development activities; and changes in world oil prices that affected the operation of various economic activities.
The Third Plan focuses on addressing them and establishing a sustainable framework that will enable to achieve the goals of the National Development Vision. Areas of inspiration in the Plan include: Increasing the country’s capacity for production; building a competitive economy that will stimulate the country’s participation in trade and investment; and stimulate human development.
In achieving the priority areas of the Plan, the Government intends to take solid steps in: improving key productive infrastructures including roads, railways, water and air transport as well as reliable access to energy; continue to strengthen the business and investment enabling environment through effective policies to facilitate free private sector competition; and to improve and strengthen education and training systems, including reforming the education curriculum in line with labour market demand as well as integrating research and development with productive economic activities. Efforts to improve the business and investment enabling environment will focus on shortening procedures and easing regulations for starting and operating businesses; simplifying investment procedures by establishing one stop service centres to reduce bureaucracy and corruption; reducing barriers for investors including work permits for specialized professionals;
vi “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” vii
and devise friendly approaches of revenue collection and expenditure control in accordance with laws and regulations. In addition, the Government, recognizing the In achieving the priority significance of international trade and foreign investment, areas of the Plan, the will continue to strengthen and promote relations with other nations, regional communities and international Government intends institutions as well as deepening the implementation of to take solid steps in: economic diplomacy policy. improving key productive The Third Plan has set ambitious goals that are the infrastructures including foundation of the nation’s long-term success. To achieve this, the contribution of every citizen and development roads, railways, water and partners is needed. In addition, Government institutions air transport as well as must work together to carry out their responsibilities reliable access to energy;. efficiently and effectively. Similarly, the Government will provide cooperation to the Private Sector which has been given special importance in implementing this Plan. Moreover, I guarantee and reaffirm that the Government is strongly committed to ensuring that the discipline and vigour, shall be considered and emphasized throughout its implementation.
Fellow Tanzanians, I conclude my message by emphasizing that the history of our Nation, reminds us of many examples of great potential when we come together to implement our Plans. Therefore, everyone should increase efforts, accountability and patriotism in fulfilling his/her responsibilities so that the goals of the National Development Vision 2025 can be achieved. The work continues.
GOD BLESS AFRICA, GOD BLESS TANZANIA!
H.E Samia Suluhu Hassan THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA June 2021 viii “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” PREFACE
The preparation of the Third Plan has involved various stakeholders including the Government, the Private Sector, Civil Society, Non-Governmental Organizations, Development Partners and the community at large.
The Third National Development Plan is the last in the implementation of the 15-year Long Term Perspective Plan which was specifically designed to implement the National Development Vision 2025 which aims to bring the Nation into a middle-income economy driven by industrialisation and human development. The decade of management of the previous two five-year development plans has laid a solid foundation for the implementation of the National Vision and witnessed our country entering a middle-income economy five years before time. The achievement has been geared by economic growth during the period of an average of 6.9 percent while the average per capita income (GNI) reaching 2,577,967 shillings (equivalent to US $ 1,080) in 2019, a level that is above the limit of US $ 1,036 set aside as a base for the country to join the group of countries with low-middle income status. On July 1, 2020, the World Bank declared Tanzania a country that qualified to achieve a middle-income economy. The government has continued to pursue the goal of building a society with a better life, peace, stability, and solidarity; good governance; an educated and learning society; and a competitive economy capable of inclusive and sustainable growth as identified in the National Development Vision 2025. Further, in sustaining this achievement there is a need to increase investment in human and other resources with a view to stimulating economic growth.
During the implementation of the First and Second Plans, the Government continued to implement various strategies aimed at accelerating the implementation of the National Development Vision which include: emphasis on increasing production capacity through industrial revolution; investment in key economic infrastructure; strengthening Government expenditure discipline and access to social services.
ix The First National Five-Year Development Plan 2011/12 - 2015/16 was implemented in tandem with the National Strategy for Growth and Poverty Reduction (MKUKUTA II). The Plan aimed to unleash growth opportunities for economic development whereas during the implementation of its Plan in line with MKUKUTA II as a nation we were able to rehabilitate the 2,707 km of Central Railway line; construction and rehabilitation of 2,775 km of paved roads; upgrading the Dar es Salaam port by increasing cargo handling capacity from 9.9 million tons in 2011/12 to 14.6 million tons in 2014/15; increase electricity generation from 900 MW in 2010 to 1,246.24 MW in 2015; increase the rate of food self-sufficient ratio from 104 percent in 2011/12 to 125 percent in 2014/15; and strengthening provision of education, water, health and nutrition services at all levels for urban and rural populations. Overall, the implementation of the first plan achieved approximately 60 percent of the planned targets.
Implementation of the Second National Five-Year Development Plan 2016/17 - 2020/21 geared by the slogan “Hapa Kazi Tu” has increased efficiency in achieving the objectives of the Second Five Year National Development Plan 2016/17 - 2020/21 by 93.8 percent. The Second Plan has had many successes in the implementation of major flagship projects including: Construction of Central Corridor Standard Gauge Railway (SGR); Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project - 2,115 MW; and Revamping Tanzania Airline Corporation Limited - ATCL. In addition, in the manufacturing sector, 105 percent of the targets were achieved whereby the sector’s contribution to GDP reached 25.1 percent compared to 21.1 percent in 2015/16. Similarly, the growth rate of production activities increased from 5.2 percent in 2016/17 to 8.5 percent in 2020/21 while the annual growth of the mining sector increased to 12.6 percent from 6.9 percent in 2015/16. In the social services sector, achievements include improving access to social services for rural and urban residents where school enrolment has increased at all levels of education, and access to health care services has reached the villages level. Further, the analysis of human development index shows that the country has made progress on human development indicators including: increase in life expectancy; increase in literacy rate; decline in gender inequality index; and decline in the basic needs and food poverty.
The main objective of the Third National Five-Year Development Plan is to contribute to the achievement of goals of the Tanzania Development Vision 2025. To achieve the vision, the third National Development Plan is organized to accommodate eight (8) main chapters as follows: Chapter one summarizes the preparation of the Plan; Chapter two deals with the evaluation of the Second National Development Plan; Chapter three focuses on modalities for promotion of participation of the Private Sector and Non-State Actors in economic development in the country; Chapter four presents the concept behind building a competitive and industrial economy for human development as well as provide a definition of the importance and relationship of the five priority areas of the Plan; Chapter five outlines strategic measures for competitiveness, industrial development and human development; Chapter six sets out the estimates of financial resources for financing the implementation of the Plan; Chapter seven outlines the tools that will be used to oversee the implementation of the plan as well as outlines the roles of various institutions in the implementation of the Plan and Chapter eight describes the Monitoring and Evaluation of the implementation of the Plan.
Preparation of the Third Plan has involved various stakeholders from the Government, the Private Sector, Civil Society, Non-Governmental Organizations, Development Partners and the community at large. Preparation also involved consideration of various documents that included: TDV 2025, the Long Term Perspective Plan 2010/11 – 2025/26, CCM Election Manifesto for the General Election of year 2020, speeches by the Fifth and Sixth Phase Presidents during the opening of the 12th National Assembly in November, 2020 and March
x “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” xi
2021 respectively, The United Nations Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs-2030), Addis Ababa Action Agenda for Financing for Development, Paris Agreement on Climate Change, EAC Vision 2050, The main objective SADC Vision 2050 and SADC Regional Indicative Strategic of the Third National Development Plan (RISDP–2030) and the Africa Union Agenda 2063. Five-Year Development Plan is to contribute In implementing the Third Five Year National Development Plan the Government will focus on to the achievement of stimulating an inclusive and competitive economy, goals of the Tanzania strengthening industrial production capabilities and service delivery, promoting investment and trade, Development Vision bringing development to our citizens and building 2025. To achieve human resource capacity. the vision, the third To facilitate its implementation, this Plan has been National Development developed in line with the Implementation Strategy Plan is organized to which is divided into three implementation plans. First, is the Action Plan which outlines all activities and accommodate eight (8) objectives intended for whole period of implementation. main chapters as follows: The second is the Financing Strategy (FS) that shows how to avail funding for development projects as well as other strategic steps outlined in the Plan. The latter has prepared a Monitoring and Evaluation Strategy (MES) for monitoring the implementation of projects to know whether the intended results are being met and prompt corrective measures whenever needed to ensure delivery of the intended results. Through the slogan of the Sixth Phase Government of Kazi Iendelee, each of us has a responsibility to fulfil assigned responsibilities effectively in order to achieve effective implementation of this Plan.
GOD BLESS AFRICA, GOD BLESS TANZANIA
Dkt. Mwigulu Lameck Nchemba (MP), Minister of Finance and Planning JUNE 2021 ABBREVIATIONS
ADP Annual Development Plan AfCFTA African Continental Free Trade Area AIDS Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ASDP II Agricultural Sector Development Programme II ATCL Air Tanzania Company Limited BEST Business Environment Strengthening Tanzania BITs Bilateral Investment Treaties BoT Bank of Tanzania BTAs Bilateral Trade Agreements CBOs Community-Based Organisations CBWSOs Community-Based Water Supply Organisations CHF Community Health Fund COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa COSTECH Tanzania Commission for Science and Technology CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment CSA Climate Smart Agriculture CSOs Civil Society Organisations CSR Corporate Social Responsibility DANID Danish Development Cooperation DART Dar es Salaam Rapid Transit DDI Domestic Direct Investment DFID Department for International Development DIB Development Impact Bond DPs Development Partners DRC Democratic Republic of the Congo DSA Debt Sustainability Analysis EAC East African Community EACOP East African Crude Oil Pipeline ECAs Export Credit Agencies
xii “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EPZs Export Processing Zones ESDP Education Sector Development Plan ESPR Education Sector Development Plan EWURA Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority FBOs Faith-Based Organisations FDCs Focal Development Colleges FDI Foreign Direct Investment FYDP Five Year Development Plan GCF Green Climate Fund GDP Gross Domestic Product GFC Global Financial Crisis GNI Gross National Income GVC Global Value Chain HBS Household Budget Survey HDI Human Development Index HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus HSSP III Health Sector Strategic Plan III ICT Information and Communications Technology IMTC Inter-Ministerial Technical Committee IWRMDPs Integrated Water Resources Management and Development plans JNHPP Julius Nyerere Hydro Power Project LED Local Economic Development LGAs Local Government Authorities LGRP Local Government Reform Programme LIC Low-income country LLGs Lower-Level Governments LMIC Lower middle-income country LNG Liquidation of Natural Gas
xiii LSRP Legal Sector Reform Programme LTPP Long Term Perspective Plan MDAs Sector Ministries, Independent Departments and Agencies MDG Millennium Development Goals MEL Monitoring Evaluation and Learning MES Monitoring and Evaluation Strategy MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantees Agency MKUKUTA Mkakati wa Kukuza Uchumi na Kupunguza Umaskini Tanzania MoFP Ministry of Finance and Planning MPI Multi-dimensional Poverty Index MSME Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise MTEF Medium- Term Expenditure Framework MVA Manufacturing Value Added MW Megawatt NACTE National Council for Technical Education NBS National Bureau of Statistics NCD Non-Communicable Diseases NaCONGO National Council of Non-Government Organisations NDC National Development Corporation NEEC National Economic Empowerment Council NGOs Non-Government Organisations NHC National Housing Corporation NHIF National Health Insurance Fund NIS National Innovation System NRW Non-Revenue Water NSGRP National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty ODA Official Development Assistance OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PMO Prime Minister’s Office PO-RALG President’s Office - Regional Administration and Local Government PPP Public Private Partnership PPD Public - Private Dialogue
xiv “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” PPPFF Public Private Partnerships Facilitation Fund PRS Poverty Reduction Strategy PSRP Public Service Reform Programme PTR Pupil Teacher Ratio R&D Research and Development RISDP Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan RWSSP Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Programme SADC Southern African Development Community SC Steering Committee SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SEZs Special Economic Zones SGR Standard Gauge Railway SIB Social Impact Bond SIDO Small Industries Development Organisation SIDP Sustainable Industrial Development Policy SME Small and Medium Enterprise SPR Strategic Petroleum Reserve STAMICO State Mining Corporation STI Science, Technology and Innovation STEM Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics SUMATRA/LATRA Surface and Marine Transport Regulatory Authority/Land Transport Regulatory Authorities TADB Tanzania Agricultural Development Bank TAF Technical Assistance Fund TANESCO Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited TANROADS Tanzania National Roads Agency TANTRADE Tanzania Trade Development Authority TAZARA Tanzania Zambia Railway Authority TB Tuberculosis TBT Technical Barriers to Trade TCCIA Tanzania Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture TDV Tanzania Development Vision TECC Tanzania Entrepreneurship and Competitive Centre
xv TEMDO Tanzania Engineering and Manufacturing Design Organisation TFDA Tanzania Food and Drugs Authority TIB Tanzania Investment Bank TIC Tanzania Investment Centre TIRA Tanzania Insurance Regulatory Authority TIRP Tanzania Intermodal and Rail Development Project TMDA Tanzania Medicines and Medical Devices Authority TNBC Tanzania National Business Council TPA Tanzania Ports Authority TPB Tanzania Postal Bank TPSF Tanzania Private Sector Foundation TRA Tanzania Revenue Authority TRC Tanzania Railways Corporation TZS Tanzanian Shillings TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training USADF United States African Development Foundation USAID United States Agency for International Development USD United States Dollar VAT Value Added Tax VETA Vocational Education and Training Authority VET Vocational Education and Training WHO World Health Organisation
xvi “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” TABLE OF CONTENTS
KEYNOTE v
PREFACE ix
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xii
LIST OF TABLES xvii
CHAPTER ONE 1
INTRODUCTION 2
1.1. Background 2
1.2. Objectives of the FYDP III 4
1.3. Salient Features 5
1.4. Process of Developing the FYDP III 6
1.5. The Layout of FYDP III 7
CHAPTER TWO 9
REVIEW OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SECOND NATIONAL FIVE-YEAR DEVELOPMENT 10 PLAN 2016/17-2020/21
2.1. Overview 10
2.2. Macroeconomic Performance 11
2.3. Sectoral Performance 16
2.4. Human Capital Development and Social Services 20
2.4.1. Education 20
2.4.2. Health Sector 24
2.4.3. Coverage of Health Insurance Schemes 26
2.4.4. Access to Sources of Safe Water and Improved Sanitation 26
2.5. Poverty Reduction and Economic Empowerment 26
2.5.1. Human Development Index, Status of Poverty and Inequality 26
2.5.2. Employment Creation 28
2.5.3. Gender Equality and Women Economic Empowerment 28
xvii 2.6. Interventions to Foster Investment 29
2.6.1. Improvement of Hard Infrastructure 29
2.6.2. Development of Soft Infrastructure 31
2.6.3. Business Environment 31
2.6.3.1. Private Sector Facilitation 32
2.6.3.2. Public Private Partnership (PPP) 33
2.6.3.3. Good Governance and Accountability 33
2.6.4. Peace, Security and Political Stability 35
2.7. Assessment of Financing of the FYDP II 35
2.8. Monitoring and Evaluation of FYDP II 35
2.9 Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Challenges (SWOC) of the FYDP II 36
2.10 Status of Flagship Projects 38
2.11 Overall Performance and Emerging Issues 39
2.11.1 Overall Performance 39
2.11.2 Implementation Challenges 40
2.12 Way Forward 41
CHAPTER THREE 43
PROMOTING PRIVATE SECTOR AND NON-STATE ACTORS’ PARTICIPATION IN 44 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
3.1. Overview 44
3.2. The Private Sector in Tanzania 44
3.2.1. Participation in Agriculture 45
3.2.2. Participation in Other Productive Sectors 45
3.3. The Non-State Actors in Tanzania 47
3.4. Regulatory and Policy Limitations Impacting Private Sector and Non-State Actors Development 47
3.4.1.Private sector 47
3.4.2.Non-State Actors 48
3.5. Policies and Institutional Position on Private Sector and Non-State Actors Development 48
3.6. Local Content and Local Economic Development 49
xviii “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” 3.7. Proposed Strategic Interventions for Private Sector and Non-State Actors Development 50
3.8. Building Trust in the Public-Private Dialogue (PPD) 51
CHAPTER FOUR 53
STRATEGIC POSITIONING FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF FYDP III. 54
4.1. Overview 54
4.2. Consolidating the Middle-Income Status 54
4.3. Guiding Norms and Values for FYDP III 56
4.4. Experience from Global Context of Competitiveness 57
4.5. Framework of FYDP III 60
4.5.1. Highpoints of the FYDP III 60
4.5.2. Good Governance 61
4.5.3. Economic Growth 62
4.5.3.1. Competitiveness 62
4.5.3.2. Industrialisation and Services 66
4.5.3.3. Trade and Investment 70
4.5.4. Social Development 71
4.6. Towards Specific Interventions 72
CHAPTER FIVE 73
STRATEGIC INTERVENTIONS FOR COMPETITIVENESS, INDUSTRIALISATION AND HUMAN 74 DEVELOPMENT
5.1. Introduction 74
5.2 Interventions for Realizing an Inclusive and Competitive Economy 74
5.2.1 Competitive Economy 75
5.2.2 Promoting Macroeconomic Stability for a Competitive Economy 76
5.2.3 Unlocking Infrastructural Competitiveness 77
5.2.4 Communication Sector 79
5.2.5 Energy Sector 80
5.2.6 Leveraging Institutions for Competitiveness 83
xix 5.3 Interventions for Deepening Industrialization and service provision 84
5.3.1 Agriculture 84
5.3.1.1 Application of Science, Technology and Innovation to Improve Productivity and Yields in 85 Agriculture Sector
5.3.2 Manufacturing 91
5.3.3 Mining 93
5.3.4 Construction 94
5.3.5 Environmental and Natural Resources Management 95
5.3.6 Science, Technology and Innovation 96
5.3.7 Tourism Sector 99
5.3.8 Information, Sports and Creative Arts 100
5.3.9 Financial Services 103
5.3.10 The Blue Economy 106
5.4 Investment and Trade Promotion 107
5.4.1 Consolidating Business and Investment Environment Reforms 107
5.4.2 Trade 108
5.4.3 Foreign Relations and Economic Diplomacy 109
5.5 Interventions for Human Development 111
5.5.1 Quality and Relevant Education 112
5.5.2 Health 115
5.5.3 Water Supply and Sanitation 116
5.5.4 Urban Planning, Housing and Human Settlement Development 117
5.5.5 Food Security and Nutrition 118
5.5.6 Social Protection 120
5.5.7 Good Governance and Rule of Law 122
5.5.8 Effective and Efficient Justice Service Delivery System 123
5.5.9 Peace, Security and Political stability 125
5.5.10 Development of New Capital City of Tanzania – Dodoma 126
5.6 Interventions for Skills Development 127
xx “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” 5.7 Flagship Projects of FYDP III 130
5.8 Other Strategic Projects for the FYDP III 133
5.9 Expected Outcomes for a Competitive Economy 133
CHAPTER SIX 135
FINANCING IMPLEMENTATION OF FYDP III 136
6.1. Overview 136
6.2. Resource Envelope for FYDP III 136
6.3. Sources of Development Finance for the FYDP III 138
6.3.1. Public Sector Sources of Finances 138
6.3.1.1. Domestic Revenue 139
6.3.1.2. Domestic Borrowing 139
6.3.1.3. External Public Sources 140
6.3.2. Private Sector Sources of Financing 141
6.3.2.1. Domestic Private Sector Sources 141
6.3.2.2. External Private Sector Sources 142
6.4. Institutional, Policy and Legal Reforms 143
6.4.1. Domestic Revenue 143
6.4.2. Domestic Private Finance 144
6.4.3. External financing 145
6.4.4. Climate Change Fund 145
6.5. Financing Risks and Mitigation Measures 146
6.6. Stakeholders Role in Supporting the Financing Plan 146
6.6.1. Government 147
6.6.2. Private Sector 148
6.6.3. Development Partners 148
6.6.4. Non-state Actors 148
6.6.5. Financial Service Providers 149
6.6.6. Academia and Research Institutions 149
xxi CHAPTER SEVEN 151
IMPLEMENTATION OF FYDP III 152
7.1. Overview 152
7.2. Implementation Frameworks of FYDP III 152
7.3. Implementation Strategies of FYDP III 152
7.4. Implementation Coordination Structure 153
7.4.1. Government 155
7.4.2. Private Sector and Civil Society 155
7.5. Implementation Risk 155
CHAPTER EIGHT 157
MONITORING AND EVALUATION 158
8.1. An Overview of M&E 158
8.2. Monitoring and Evaluation Conceptual Framework 158
8.3. Objective of the M&E Framework 160
8.4. Operationalization for FYDP III M&E 160
8.4.1. M&E Strategy 160
8.4.2. Result Framework for FYDP III 160
8.4.3. Deliverables of the M&E Framework 161
8.4.4. Approaches to deliver M&E outputs 161
8.5. Evaluation of FYDP III 163
ANNEXES: IMPLEMENTATION MATRICES OF FYDP III INTERVENTIONS 165 - 321
xxii “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Tax Reforms during Implementation of FYDP II 12
Table 2: External Debt Sustainability Indicators 15
Table 3: Foreign Direct Investment between 2016 and 2019 16
Table 4: Trends of Inequality in Mainland Tanzania 16
Table 5: Jobs Created by Main Sectors from 2016/17 to 2018/19 28
Table 6: Trend of Loans Issued to Women Entrepreneurs 29
Table 7: Tanzania’s Position in the Ease of Doing Business Reports (2015-2020) 31
Table 8: PCCB Corruption Cases Statistics, 2015/16–2019/20 34
Table 9: SWOC Analysis after Evaluation of FYDP II 36
Table 10: Flagship Projects 38
Table 11: Increasing Knowledge and Technology Content (selected examples) 66
Table 12: Performance Indicators and Targets for Implementation of Agriculture 75
Table 13: Target and Indicator Trends for Manufacturing 77
Table 14: Indicators and Targets for Implementation of Mining Sector Interventions 81
Table 15: Performance Indicators and Targets for Construction Sector 83
Table 16: Performance Indicators and Targets for Natural Resources and Environmental Protection 84
Table 17: Overall Competitiveness Indicators 89
Table 18: Indicators for Macroeconomic Stability for a Competitive Economy 92
Table 19: Indicators and Targets for Banking and Payment Sub-Sector 94
Table 20: Targets and Indicators for Creative Industries 95
Table 21: Resource Envelop for FYDP III (Million TZS) 96
Table 22: Target Indicators for Innovation, Science and Technologies 97
Table 23: Targets and Indicators for Tourism Sub-sector 100
xxiii Table 24: Targets and Indicators for Creative Industries 102
Table 25: Indicators and Targets for Banking and Payment Sub-Sector 104
Table 26: Indicators and Targets for Insurance Sub-Sector 105
Table 27: Indicators and Targets for Capital Market Sub-Sector 106
Table 28: Indicators and Targets for Trade Development 109
Table 29: Indicators and Targets for Foreign Relations and Economic Diplomacy 110
Table 30: Human Development Indicators 111
Table 31: Indicators and Targets for Education and Capacity Development 112
Table 32: Indicators and Targets for the Health Sector 116
Table 33: Indicators for Water Supply and Sanitation 117
Table 34: Indicators and Targets for Urbanization, Housing and Sustainable Human Settlements 118
Table 35: Indicators and Targets for Food Security and Nutrition 119
Table 36: Indicators and Targets for Social Protection 121
Table 37: Performance Indicators and Targets for Effective and efficient Justice Delivery System. 124
Table 38: Indicators and Targets for Enhanced Public Safety, Law and Order 125
Table 39: Indicators and Targets for Skills Development 128
Table 40: Expected Outputs 134
Table 41: Resource Envelop for FYDP III (Million TZS) 137
xxiv “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Total Enrolments in Government and Non-Government 21 Pre-Primary Schools by Sex, 2014-2018
Figure 2: Conceptual Framework for the FYDP III 61
Figure 3: High-Tech Exports as Percentage of Total Manufactured Exports. 67
Figure 4: Implementation and Coordination Structure 154
Figure 5: Conceptual Framework for FYDP III M&E Framework 159
Figure 6: Result Chain for the FYDP III 161
LIST OF BOXES
Box 1: The State of Start-ups 52
Box 2: Spin-off Products from Cashew nuts 68
Box 3: Horticultural Industry in Tanzania 86
Box 4: Leather Industry 87
Box 5: Commercialization and Scaling-Up Technology 92
Box 6: Promoting Digital Economy in Tanzania 98
Box 7: Promoting Blue Economy in Tanzania 107
Box 9: Flagship projects of FYDP III 130
xxv
1
INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
1.1. Background
In 1999, Tanzania launched the National Development Vision 2025 (TDV 2025) as a tool to rally national efforts towards achieving the expected social and economic development goals. The launch was followed by a series of policy, institutional and systemic reforms in the 2000s. The breadth and depth of these reforms were substantial following the scale of economic challenges Tanzania had experienced in the 1980s and 1990s. During that period, the country had experienced a slower economic growth rate, severe shortages of essential goods and services, high inflation, low government revenue collection, shortage of revenue from exports, as well as large and unsustainable debt.
During the 1990s and 2000s, the Government introduced reform programmes aimed at improving performance and service delivery in the public sector. Key among these were the Public Service Reform Programme (PSRP), the Local Government Reform Programme (LGRP), the Public Financial Sector Reform Programme (PFSRP) and the Legal Sector Reform Programme (LSRP). Reforms also aimed to address shortcomings in social service delivery which saw regulatory and process related reforms in the key sectors of Education, Health and Water. In addition, the Government established and strengthened regulatory institutions in the economic and infrastructure sectors, including the Surface and Marine Transport Regulatory Authority (SUMATRA, 2001) recently divided into the Land Transport Regulatory Authorities (LATRA) and Tanzania Shipping Agency Corporation (TASAC), Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority (EWURA), and other specialized institutions such as the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA, 1996), the Tanzania Ports Authority (TPA, 2004) , and Tanzania Roads Agency (TANROADS, 2000).
Reforms also included review of the Government’s core responsibilities and those of other stakeholders especially the Private Sector and Civil Society. On that basis, the Government introduced a number of programmes including the Business Environment Strengthening for Tanzania (BEST), Financial Sector Reforms, and privatization of public enterprises, with a view to enabling the private sector to participate in economic activities. The reform era also saw the preparation of long-term sector development plans such as the Transport Sector Development Plan, Integrated Tourism Plan (2002), Agricultural Sector Development Programme, Ports Comprehensive Development Plan (2009), Energy Sector Development Plan and Power Sector Development Plan (2008).
The launch of the TDV 2025 took place at a time when the country was facing a huge external debt burden. As a result, the country entered into the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) and the Highly Indebted Poor Countries initiatives (HIPC) Debt Relief Programme (HIPC). This situation forced the Government to prepare medium-term plans in the framework of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) which was supported by international financial institutions and donor countries. The strategies that were under the PRSP framework
2 “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” INTRODUCTION
include: The three-year Poverty Reduction Strategy (2000/01 - 2002/03) which was followed by the five-year Poverty Reduction Strategy known as the first National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (NSGRP I or MKUKUTA I in Kiswahili) 2005/06 - 2009/10. MKUKUTA I was followed by the Second National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty – NSGRP II or MKUKUTA II (2010/11 – 2015/16).
Following evaluation of the progress made towards the TDV 2025 goals that was conducted in 2009/10, the Government prepared a Long-Term Perspective Plan (LTPP) 2011/12 - 2025/26 whose implementation was planned to be divided into three sequential phases of five-year development plans. The decision to return to the medium-term planning process aimed at redirecting efforts to achieve the Vision’s goals by focusing on economic growth in tandem with poverty reduction and human development.
The three five-year development plans are interlinked and prepared based on specific themes. The first Five-Year National Development Plan 2011/12-2015/16, with the theme Unleashing Tanzania’s Latent Growth Potentials, identified intervention areas (sectors/issues) to more effectively unlock growth potentials. FYDP III, which was implemented in conjunction with MKUKUTA II, focused on addressing infrastructure challenges, especially access to electricity (with emphasis on availability, accessibility and reliability), ports (with emphasis on Dar es Salaam Port), roads, railways and expansion of social service infrastructure. Efforts to reduce poverty, improve livelihoods, good governance and accountability were included in all the five-year development plans.
An evaluation of the implementation of the first Five-Year National Development Plan identified mixed results: in some areas the performance was satisfactory while in others, implementation was below the set targets. The major challenges identified by the evaluation of FYDPI include: financing (the trend of allocation of development funds compared to actual disbursement, availability, and timely disbursement of funds), poor performance in management and deficiencies in the business environment and discipline in execution. However, this assessment faced the challenge of accessibility of data.
In the LTPP, the second Five-Year National Development Plan (FYDP II) (2016/17-2020/21) was assigned the theme: - Nurturing an Industrial Economy. However, the theme was reviewed in line with the Government’s decision to integrate FYDP III and the Tanzania Poverty Reduction Strategy (MKUKUTA II) in May 2015. This move included issues of poverty reduction and improved living conditions that were key to the MKUKUTA. Thus, the focus on economic growth and reform as well as reducing poverty and improving people’s lives led to the revision of the theme of the second Plan (FYDP II) to Nurturing Industrialisation for Economic Transformation and Human Development.
The change of the theme of FYDP II along with the Government’s commitment to continue implementing the industrial agenda, has led to a change in the theme of FYDP III. The theme of the FYDPIII (2021/22-2025/26) has changed from Realising Competitiveness–led Export Growth as stipulated in the LTPP to “Realising Com- petitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development”, to reflect the goals of the vision which include building a strong, competitive economy, of middle-income status and semi-industrialised economy that can compete regionally and internationally without losing the goal of strengthening human development.
The FYDP III, therefore, will seek to enable the country to more effectively use her geographical opportunities and resources for production and economic growth, while, ensuring that the outcomes benefit all citizens in line with the Vision’s goals of a high quality of life.
The FYDP III Plan is the final phase in the implementation of the DTV 2025 and the last part of the LTPP); It aims to put up a specific environment for building on the achievements obtained since the launching of the TDV 3 NATIONAL FIVE YEAR DEVELOPMENT PLAN FYDP III - 2021/22 – 2025/26
2025. For that reason, FYDP III will continue to implement the projects and programmes aimed at opening up economic opportunities, build an industrial economy, strengthen competitiveness in domestic, regional and global markets as well as strengthen human development. In addition, FYDP III provides guidance and insights for the country’s next long-term development vision. In view of that, the Government recognizes the importance of the use of Science and Technology and Innovation (STI) and digitalisation, attendant skills development, creative potential, and the use of digital issues to ensure that Tanzania does not lag behind.
1.2. Objectives of the FYDP III
The main objective of the Third Plan is to contribute to realisation of the National Development Vision 2025 goals. These goals include Tanzania becoming a middle-income country status and continue with transformation of becoming an industrial country with a high human development or a high standard of living. Upon reaching its vision, the Tanzania is envisioned to have the following attributes: peace, stability and unity; good governance; an educated and learning society; and a strong economy that can withstand competition and benefit many people.
Therefore, the FYDP III enhances the thrust of previous plans by emphasizing economic reform, industrial development, and the knowledge and ability to participate fully in international trade. Tanzania can benefit more from its geographical location, abundance natural resources than it is now. The peace and political stability of a country are valuable assets that, among other things, will attract local and foreign investors to areas with economic growth opportunities. Further, FYDP III highlights for increased investment in science, technology and innovation as a way for the country to move from comparative advantage into competitive advantages, stimulate industrial development and become competitive in local, regional and global markets.
The third Plan aims to strategically use resources to achieve the goals of the National Development Vision 2025. In addition, FYDP III aims to implement sectoral strategic plans, agreements and regional and international strategic plans including the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals - SDGs to accelerate economic growth and social development.
The specific objectives of the FYDP III are: (i) To build on achievements realised towards attainment of TDV 2025 to make Tanzania a semi-industrialised, middle-income country by 2025; (ii) To strengthen capacity building in the areas of science, technology and innovation to enhance compet- itiveness and productivity in all sectors especially the productive, manufacturing and services sectors to enable Tanzanians to benefit from the opportunities available within the country; (iii) To strengthen the industrial economy as a basis for export-driven growth including investing in new products and markets and enabling Tanzania to become a production hub in the countries of the East, Central and Southern Africa and thus increasing the country’s contribution to international trade; (iv) To enhance the scope of Tanzania’s benefits from strategic geographical opportunities through enabling improved business environments and strengthening the country’s regional position as a hub for production, trade, supply and transportation; (v) To facilitate increased business start-up and private sector involvement to find the best way to promote the growth of the sector in tandem with job creation and make the sector a strong and reliable partner in development;
4 Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development INTRODUCTION
(vi) To promote exports of services including tourism, banking services, insurance and entertainment; (vii) To strengthen the implementation of FYDP III including prioritization, planning, integration and alignment of implementation interventions; (viii) To accelerate inclusive economic growth through poverty reduction and social development strategies as well as productive capacity for youth, women and people with disabilities; (ix) To ensure that regional and global agreements and commitments are fully integrated into national development for the benefit of the country; (x) To strengthen the relationship between the sectors that are endowed with natural wealth and resources with other economic and social sectors; (xi) To strengthen the role of Local Government Authorities (LGAs) in bringing about development and increasing income at the community level; and (xii) To strengthen the country’s capacity to finance development by ensuring access to domestic revenue and effective management of public expenditure.
1.3. Salient Features
The pursuit of FYDP III objectives focuses on the following policy thrusts: (i) Identification of interventions designed to improve competitiveness of the country (competitive economy): both productivity and quality of products/services and attractiveness of the country to foreign investment. One of the main requirements for improved productivity and competitive economy is enhanced levels and quality of human capital mainly in science, technology and innovation (STI) capabilities; (ii) Interventions to further deepen industrialisation, driven by STI capabilities for value addition in manufacturing and productive sectors (agriculture, fishing, livestock, mining, natural resources and others); (iii) Trade and investment: Increasing Tanzania’s participation in global and regional trade in which exports shall embody local value addition (raised from medium to high technology content). Further, apart from understanding international trade policy requirements, economic diplomacy will be applied to promote foreign investment and trade. In addition, considering the role of private sector in investment, trade, employment creation, developing coherent revenue strategies, broadened tax base, the FYDP III focused on strengthening private sector capacity and deepening engagement capability that will facilitate implementation of the policy that attracts domestic and foreign investment and trade; (iv) To enhance the quality of the outcomes of FYDP III, consistent with high-level human development goal of TDV 2025, interventions for social development are articulated. Emphasis has been given on coverage, equity and quality of services in order to attain inclusive economy; and (v) FYDP III amplifies on skills development, through interventions that address the problem of low soft skills (knowledge, creativity, persistence, self-drive and attitude) and mismatch between the skills demanded by employers and compared to training by academic institutions. The behavioural nature of soft skills requires sustainable skills development from early child education as well as demands from the labour market and self-employment. It is evidently clear that for many decades ahead, countries that will benefit will include those with internationally competitive skills. In that regard, Tanzania needs to continue to develop its human capital as well as increasing the local skills on rare and specialized areas in order to efficiently exploit the country’s enormous natural resources. The implementation of these sub-themes will require cross-sector coordination and collaboration.
5 NATIONAL FIVE YEAR DEVELOPMENT PLAN FYDP III - 2021/22 – 2025/26
FYDP III recognises the contribution of the private sector, civil society organizations and development partners in facilitation of key outcomes. The implementation of strategic intervention outlined will require effective coordination and collaboration of these complementary efforts.
1.4. Process of Developing the FYDP III
Preparation of the FYDP III applied a mix of methodologies and customized institutional arrangements embedded in the current Government structure. The process involved the following stages:
(a) Comprehensive Evaluation of the Implementation of FYDP II The Government conducted an independent evaluation of the implementation of FYDP II. The evaluation assessed progress towards the set objectives and targets with the aim of establishing achievements, opportunities, challenges and gaps relative to the targets set by FYDP II. The objective of the evaluation was to identify lessons for improving the formulation and implementation of FYDP III. The evaluation also assessed progress made in implementing agreeable international and regional commitments.
(b) Literature Review The preparation of this Plan involved a comprehensive review of various documents including national and sectoral policies, speeches and guidance from national leaders, international and regional commitment, research, peer-reviewed journals and international publications. The review informed the appraisal of Tanzania’s socio-economic status and competitiveness. Documents reviewed include the Tanzania Development Vision 2025, Tanzania Long Term Perspective Plan (LTPP) 2011/12 – 2025/26, United Nations Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development (Agenda 2030), Addis Ababa Action Agenda for Financing for Development, Paris Agreement on Climate Change 2015, EAC Vision 2050, SADC Vision 2050, SADC Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan (RISDP–2030) and the Africa Union Agenda 2063. In addition, references were made to various political parties Manifestos including the 2020 – 2025 CCM Election Manifesto. Other documents reviewed include commissioned background studies focusing on the Demographic Dividend, Development Financing, Blue Economy and digital economy. Further, other official surveys (or reports thereof) which were reviewed include: Household Budget Surveys; Industrial Production Surveys; and Demographic and Health Surveys. These reviews provided insights on a contextually relevant framework for building a competitive, industrialising economy capable of supporting trade, investment and human development.
(c) Consultations Stakeholders were consulted at different levels of FYDP III preparations including: (i) Internal consultations: These were conducted within and among Government institutions, technical experts and leaders in various levels of Government in order to ensure common understanding of the process and key issues for FYDP III. (ii) Sector consultations: The Ministry of Finance and Planning worked closely with all sector ministries to ensure consistency, validity, and accuracy of information and data throughout the initial drafting of the FYDP III. A twin objective of engaging sector ministries throughout focused on enhancing ownership of FYDP III. (iii) Wider stakeholder consultations: These involved experts from Government Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), Local Government Authorities (LGAs), Regional Secretariat (RS) the Private Sector, Civil
6 Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development INTRODUCTION
Society Organisations (CSOs), Academic and Research Institutions, Parliament and Development Partners. The consultations were aimed at collecting views and opinions, building common understanding, capacity building and validation of FYDP III
The FYDP III is developed in line with its three implementation strategies including: (i) The Action Plan, also referred as the Implementation Strategy (IS), details all activities and targets to be undertaken; (ii) Financing Strategy which identifies sources of funds to finance development projects and other interventions in FYDP III; and (iii) A Monitoring and Evaluation Strategy for tracking implementation of FYDP III.
Further, the Communication Strategy of the Ministry of Finance and Planning will be updated to serve as a tool to ensure the FYDP III is well communicated to all stakeholders.
Drafting of FYDP III involved a series of drafting and selective expert consultations to finalise FYDP III document. These were drawn from the government Ministries, Departments and Agencies, and Training and research institutions and the Private Sector.
FYDP III was approved by the Government involving Cabinet Secretariat, Inter-Ministerial Technical Committee (IMTC), Cabinet, Budget Committee and Parliament of United Republic of Tanzania.
FYDP III will be disseminated to all domestic and international stakeholders through FYDP III books, digital platforms as well as dialogue forums such as interviews and seminars.
1.5. The Layout of FYDP III
The FYDP III is organised into eight chapters. Following this introduction, Chapter Two reviews the results from implementation of FYDP II and draws implications for the way forward. Chapter Three dwells on the development of a competitive Private Sector in the country. Chapter Four presents FYDP III’s conceptual framework for building a competitive and industrialized economy for human development as well as clarifying on the relevance and linkages of the five priority areas of FYDP III. Chapter Five brings together specific interventions needed to realise FYDP III goals. Chapter Six is on financing FYDP III implementation. Chapter Seven presents arrangements for implementation of FYDP III while Chapter Eight covers monitoring and evaluation.
7
2 REVIEW OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SECOND NATIONAL FIVE-YEAR DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2016/17-2020/21 2 CHAPTER TWO REVIEW OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SECOND NATIONAL FIVE-YEAR DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2016/17-2020/21
2.1. Overview
This chapter highlights the evaluation of performance of the National Five-Year Development Plan 2016/17- 2020/21 (FYDP II). It presents results from the assessment of FYDP II implementation against set objectives, targets and performance indicators and provides insights on the achievements as well as, challenges to inform FYDP III strategic interventions. Analysis is organised as follows:
Section 2.2 presents macroeconomic performance. It covers growth (GDP) performance, inflation, external balance stability (foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate), fiscal performance and analysis of external debt. Section 2.3 covers performance by sector, including agriculture, livestock, construction, energy, mining, trade, tourism and industrial development (mainly manufacturing). Section 2.4 is on human capital development and social services, covering education, health and safe water and sanitation improvements. The chapter further includes narratives on trends in poverty and inequality, gender and women empowerment under section 2.5.
Section 2.6 covers two related dimensions of investment/business climate: ‘enabling environment’ which covers improvements in physical infrastructure (roads, railways, marine transport) and soft infrastructure (ICT - related), and ‘business environment’ which focuses on private sector facilitation, Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) and governance and accountability. Section 2.7 makes a short assessment of the financing of FYDPII and Section 2.8, the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of FYDP II. Section 2.9 provides an analysis of the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Challenges (SWOC) in Table 8. This is followed by Section 2.10 on a snapshot of performance of the flagship projects followed by a summary of overall performance, outstanding limitations and a way forward note in section 2.11
10 “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” REVIEW OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE FYDP II
2.2. Macroeconomic Performance
Growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Tanzania has, over the past decade, continued to register robust economic growth coupled with a stable macro-economic environment that it has been enjoying since the turn of the century. Over the past decade, annual GDP growth was maintained at an average of 6 to 7 percent, peaking at an average rate of 6.9 percent between 2016 and 2019. Though impressive, the annual GDP growth rates are still lower than TDV 2025 targeted rate of more than 8 percent per annum, which was deemed necessary to eradicate absolute poverty and to take the country on a right path for realizing the ambitious objectives of the vision. Nevertheless, the country has been able to qualify as a lower middle-income country as of July 2020. According to the World Bank, Tanzania’s Gross National Income (GNI) per capita increased from TZS 2,225,099 (USD 1,022) in 2016 to TZS 2,577,967 (USD 1,080) in 2019, exceeding the lower threshold for middle-income status (USD 1,035).
Over the period of FYDP II implementation, growth was attributed to continued execution of major infrastructure projects, particularly in transport and energy sectors; measures taken by the Government to improve management of the mining activities aiming at streamlining operations and curbing illegal and un- der-declaration of minerals; enhanced efficiency in revenue collection and expenditure management; as well as improved performance of the agriculture sector due to favourable weather conditions.
The sectors with highest annual average growth rates between 2016 and 2019 were construction (14.4 percent); manufacturing (8.3 percent); transportation and storage (8.2 percent); mining and quarrying (8.0 percent); and information and communication (6.2 percent). The share of agriculture in total GDP declined from 29.0 percent in 2015 to 26.6 percent in 2019. The decline of the share of agriculture in total GDP and the corresponding rise in the shares of ‘modern sectors’ apparently confirms that structural transformation is taking place in Tanzania.
Inflation: The annual rate of inflation has remained in a single digit range, averaging of 4.4 percent over the past four years, slightly below the FYDP II projection of 5 percent per annum. Headline inflation declined from annual average of 5.2 percent in 2016 to 3.3 percent in 2020. Generally, the moderation has been on account of improved food supply in the domestic market and neighbouring countries, stability of global oil prices, and prudent fiscal and monetary policies.
Foreign Reserves and Exchange Rates: Over the last five years, the foreign exchange reserve levels have been sufficient to meet required imports, servicing external debt other external. For instance, as of December 2020, foreign reserves were USD 4,767.7 million, which were sufficient to cover 5.6 months’ imports of goods and services. This is above the national monetary policy goal of 4 months and the EAC target of 4.5 months. Good levels of foreign exchange reserves were attributed to the increase in the value of export of goods and services and low oil prices. The size of the reserve not only serves as a cushion against external crises, but also a signal that imbues confidence for potential investors and creditors. In addition, the reserves have enabled the Bank of Tanzania to manage unwarranted volatility in the foreign exchange market. Through close supervision of the interbank foreign exchange market operations and bureaux de change, the Bank was able to manage perverse trading behaviour of market players that would bring instability in the exchange rate and ‘speculative attacks’ on the currency.
As a result, the value of the Tanzanian Shilling (TZS) against major foreign currencies has remained relatively stable. According to the Bank of Tanzania’s Annual Report for 2019/20, while end of the period exchange rate for 2016/17 was TZS 2,230.1 to one USD, the end of the period rate for 2019/20 was TZS 2,295.5 to one USD.
11 NATIONAL FIVE YEAR DEVELOPMENT PLAN FYDP III - 2021/22 – 2025/26
The stability of the exchange rate is a result of the combination of effective management of fiscal and monetary policies and keen supervisory practices of the Central Bank in enforcing transparency and efficient trading in the foreign exchange market. Other factors contributing to the stability of the exchange rate include a decrease in the current account deficit and low inflation relative to the rates of inflation in Tanzania’s major trading partners.
Fiscal Performance: Domestic revenue has been increasing consistently though below the set annual target. In 2019/20, domestic revenue realized was 13.7 percent higher than the amount collected in the previous year but was 8.6 below the annual target. In addition, domestic revenue as percentage of GDP increased from 13.4 percent in 2015/16 to 14.7 percent in 2019/20. The increase in revenue collection was a result of implementation of various domestic revenue policies focusing on widening tax base, strengthening management of existing sources especially by intensifying the use of electronic collection systems and other administrative measures. Table 1 summarises tax policy reforms during the FYDP II.
Table 1: Tax Reforms during Implementation of FYDP II
Tax Reforms Objectives
During 2015/16
Income Tax Reforms- Government reduced PAYE • To reduce tax burden to low-income earners from 12% to 11% and the Government reduced • To induce voluntary compliance and reduce the rates applicable to presumptive tax regimes by business cost. 25 percent.
During 2016/17
Income Tax Reforms - Reduce PAYE from 11% to 9% To reduce tax burden to low-income earners
Excise Duty Reforms - Extend Excise Duty on To limit tax evasion and increase Government Mobile Money Services to include commission Revenue. payable from money withdrawal
VAT Reforms - Introduce VAT on fee based • To remove tax distortions and reducing Financial services supplied; Abolish Exemption exemptions. for Tourism Services and abolish exemptions to • To enhance tax base and Government revenue. the armed forces and instead, provide allowances as an alternative and suitable way to deliver the • To ensure fairness to all member of armed forces goods to them. and avoid loss of Government revenues.
Import Duty Reforms - Increase import duty rate To protect and promote local production of on cement from 25 percent to 35 percent; Increase furniture as well as promotion of employment and Import Duty on Furniture’s from 15% to 20% and to ensure fairness to all member of armed forces abolish exemptions to the armed forces and and avoid loss of Government revenues instead, provide allowances as an alternative and suitable way to deliver the goods to them
12 “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” REVIEW OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE FYDP II
Tax Reforms Objectives
During 2017/18
Excise Duty Reforms - Merge Annual Motor Vehicle To simplify collection mechanism, reduce Fees with Fuels Excise by undertaking a reform collection costs, making it convenient for taxpayers through the revising upwards the excise duty rates to pay tax, improve compliance rate; To recover on petrol and diesel by TZS. 40 per litre, from TZS Revenue loss from the reform on abolishment of 339/= to TZS. 379/= per litre of motor spirit. annual motor vehicles license fees
Income Tax Reforms - 5% Withholding Tax to To increase government revenue and correct Small Miners and Increase qualifying amount income inequality and strengthening collection of for depreciation of non-commercial vehicles Government revenue from gaming activities collecting all potential from Gaming Tax
During 2018/19
Income Tax Reforms - Reduce the Corporate • To promote investment in the manufacturing Income Tax rate from 30% to 20% for new entrants of pharmaceutical and leather products so as to in Pharmaceuticals industries and Manufacturers of create employment opportunities and increase Leather Products for a period of 5 years Government revenue. • To save foreign exchange which is currently being used for the importation of these products,
Import Duty Reforms - Increase the import duty To protect local industries. rate for Gap Sugar from 25% to 35%
Gaming Reforms - Increasing gaming tax from • To Increase tax revenue from casino games; 15% to 18% on Gross Gaming Revenue for • To Increase Government revenue from gaming land-based casino operations; Increasing gaming tax collections; tax from TZS 32,000 to TZS 100,000 per machine/ months on slot machines; • To Increase Government revenue from gaming tax collections; and Increase the rate of tax on sport betting from 6% to • To Increase gaming tax collections and thus 10% on Gross Gaming Revenue; Increase the rate of contributing more to the Government revenue Gaming Tax on Winnings from 18% to 20% for SMS Lottery, Sports Betting, Slot Machine Operations, National Lottery, Forty machines (Forty machines site), and online casino (Internet /online casino)
During 2019/20
Tax Reforms-To introduce Presumptive tax regime To reduce the tax compliance burden on small to taxpayers with annual turnover from TZS four businesses as well as to align the tax rates with million (4,000,000/=) and TZS hundred million the minimum amount of turnover required for (100,000,000/=) who will not be obliged to submit businesses to use Electronic Fiscal Device (EFD) financial accounts to Tanzania Revenue Authority machine. for determining income tax. (a) Proposal to introduce the turnover tax for PIT traders.
13 NATIONAL FIVE YEAR DEVELOPMENT PLAN FYDP III - 2021/22 – 2025/26
The reorientation of expenditure towards public investment reflects the Government’s commitment to narrow the infrastructure gap and thus facilitate private sector investment and economic growth. The aim of the fifth phase Government was to increase development spending to the tune of 30–40 percent of the total budget as articulated in the FYDP II to finance development projects. Development spending increased from 22.5 percent of the actual budget in 2015/16 to 31.4 percent in 2019/20. Budget dependency continued to be in single digit for the past five years with the ratio of concessional loans and grants averaging at 9.3 percent of the total budget in 2019/20. In GDP terms, development spending has increased to 6.3 percent of GDP (2019/20), up from 4.3 percent in 2015/16. Capital investments have been directed towards the construction and rehabilitation of health and education facilities, Government buildings in Dodoma, transport sector projects such as the standard gauge railway, the energy sector projects of Kinyerezi I&II, construction of Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (JNHPP), and the construction, upgrading and rehabilitation of airports across the country.
The fiscal deficit narrowed from 3.4 percent of GDP in 2015/16 to 1.4 percent in 2019/20. It remains below 3 percent, which is the set target for macroeconomic convergence in the EAC and SADC. The deficit is financed through foreign and domestic borrowing. In the short to medium term, the deficit is expected to widen (but within the agreed target) as Government continues to implement major infrastructure projects such as the new standard gauge railway (SGR) and power infrastructure.
Financial Sector Performance: The Bank of Tanzania has continued to implement and sustain monetary policy which aims at increasing credit to the private sector. In this regard, the Bank of Tanzania reduced the discount rate from 12.0 percent to 9.0 percent and further reduced it to 5 percent in May 2020. Also, the Bank of Tanzania has continued to inject liquidity into the economy through different financial instruments in order to meet market requirements. These measures have improved liquidity in the money markets. In terms of interest rates on Treasury bills, the rates have been reduced from 17.49 percent in December 2015 to an average rate of 11.06 percent in December 2020. The overall time deposit rate has declined from 9.3 percent registered in December 2015 to 7.09 percent in December 2020.
For the past five years the banking sector has remained sound and stable with capital and liquidity levels being above minimum regulatory requirements. As of 31st December 2019, there were two private credit reference bureaux operating in Tanzania, namely Credit info Tanzania Limited and Dun & Bradstreet Credit Bureau Tanzania Limited. During this period, 55 out of 56 banking institutions were submitting data to the credit reference databank, which amounted to 98.21 percent of the financial institutions required to submit data to the CRB. By the end of 2019, the number of borrowers and loans submitted by banking institutions to the databank reached 5.22 million and 3.9 million, respectively. Also, the number of banking agents have increased from 3,299 agents in December 2015 to 28,358 agents in December 2019.The growth in the number of banking agents is reflected by the increase in the volume and value of transactions. The volume of cash deposits by agents was TZS 5,464.9 in billion in 2019 compared to TZS 28.37 billion in 2015 whereas the volume of withdrawals was TZS 1,833.1 billion and TZS 4.14 billion respectively. Total Market Capitalization of 28 companies listed on the DSE increased to TZS 19,676.92 billion in 2018, compared to Total Market Capitalization of TZS 16,464.3 billion recorded in December 2015. The number of companies listed at the DSE has also increased to 28 companies in 2018, compared to 18 companies in 2015, which is equivalent to a 55.6 percent increase.
Debt Sustainability: Tanzania’s national debt continued to be sustainable throughout FYDP II implementation period. All debt burden indicators show that Tanzania remains at a low risk of debt distress, with all relevant debt ratios below the thresholds for distress. The Composite Indicator (CI) calculated based on the October 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) for Tanzania is 3.07, indicating that the country’s debt-carrying capacity is strong. In nominal terms, the public debt was 39.0 percent of GDP in 2019/20. Debt Sustainability Analysis
14 “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” REVIEW OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE FYDP II
(DSA) 2020 results indicated that the present value (PV) of external (public and private) debt-to-GDP ratio in 2019/20 stood at 16.4 percent against the threshold of 55 percent and was projected to decrease moderately in the medium-term to long-term, reaching 14.0 percent by 2030/31. The long-term projection is supported by strong GDP growth and expected slowdown of borrowing after completion of major projects under the FYDP II. The present value (PV) of external debt-to-export is projected to decrease from 103.9 percent in 2019/20 to 81.2 percent in 2025/26 and thereafter to 68 percent by 2030/31. The liquidity indicators, as measured by the ratios of debt service to exports, is projected to decrease from 11.9 percent in 2019/20 to 11.1 percent in 2025/26 (Table 2).
Table 2: External Debt Sustainability Indicators
External DSA Threshold 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2030/31
PV of debt-to 55 16.3 17.3 17.5 17.9 17.9 17.2 16.7 14.0 GDP ratio PV of debt-to- 240 103.9 113.2 109.7 103.5 94.3 87.9 81.2 68.0 exports ratio Debt service- 21 11.9 14.0 13.4 10.6 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.1 to-exports ratio
Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning
The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) suggests that overall risk of debt distress for Tanzania is low, reflecting the recent GDP rebasing and reclassification of the country from a medium policy performer to a strong policy performer, which raised its debt carrying capacity and accompanying debt burden thresholds. All debt burden indicators remain below the thresholds under stress tests.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): During FYDP II, Tanzania continued to invite foreign investors. The value of Foreign Direct Investments has been increasing over time (Table 3). The sectors (sub-sectors) that attracted FDIs include mining and quarrying, finance and insurance, food and accommodation, manufacturing and agriculture. Most of the FDIs1 originate from the Canada, Kenya, Germany, China, India, Mauritius, the Netherlands, Oman, South Africa, United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States.
Foreign direct investments (FDIs) bring in new capital, along with technical, managerial and networking capabilities. Among the concerns that feature frequently include the speed of investor facilitation and administration of incentives as well as the costs of obtaining permits (work, residence, building, licenses and approvals). At the Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC) which is a formal investment promotion agency, a One Stop Centre (OSC) was established, in order to make possible provision of (most of) the facilitation services by government agencies under ‘one roof’. This arrangement saves the investor’s cost in time and money by removing the need for moving from one MDA to another.
1 Not in order of shares
15 NATIONAL FIVE YEAR DEVELOPMENT PLAN FYDP III - 2021/22 – 2025/26
Table 3: Foreign Direct Investment between 2016 and 2019
Year 2016 2017 2018 2019
FDI (Million USD) 755.4 937.7 971.6 990.6
Source: Bank of Tanzania
2.3. Sectoral Performance
Agriculture Sector: The key targets were to attain real growth rate of 7.6 percent; GDP share of 29.4 percent; 24.9 percent share in total exports and share in total employment at 56.5 percent. Over the past four years, the sector has grown by an annual average of 5.1 percent, accounted for an average of 27.7 percent to GDP, 24.1 percent to export earnings and 65 percent of total employment. Cash crop production increased to 1,156,389 tonnes in 2018/19 (from 796,502 tonnes in 2015/16). Food crops production continued to flourish such that food self-sufficiency reached 118 percent. Exports of horticultural produces rose to USD 779 million in 2018/19 (from USD 412 million in 2015). Irrigated area increased to 694,715 hectares in 2020 (from 461,376 hectares in 2015). Food crops storage capacity increased up to 621,000 tonnes in 2020 (from 371,000 tonnes in 2015).
Most farmers/livestock keepers/fishermen still use very low technology and production and productivity is very low even by regional standards. Productivity is still low and so is the level of commercialization. According to the preliminary results of 2019/20 agriculture census only about 20 percent of the 13.5 ml. hectares planted used improved seed and only 2.8 ml. Hectares (about 20 percent) used mineral fertilizers.
Also, during implementation of FYDP II, the Government constructed new irrigation infrastructure and repaired the old irrigation infrastructure. This has led to an increase in the irrigation area, from 461,376 hectares in 2015 to 694,715 hectares in 2020. Until December 2020, the Government was continuing with the construction of irrigation schemes in Kigugu-Mvomero (200 ha); Mvumi – Kilosa (249 ha); Msolwa Ujamaa – Morogoro (675 ha); Njage – Kilombero (325 ha) and Shamba la Mbegu Kilangali – Kilosa (400 ha). Furthermore, production of quality seeds has increased from 36,614 tons in 2015 to 71,000 in 2020. The completion of construction of seeds laboratory in Morogoro has led to production of 14,700 kilograms of pre-basic rice/paddy seeds (TXD 306, TXD 88, Komboka, Tai, Supa and NERICA 1). The construction of five warehouses for storage of rice under Expanded Rice Production Project have been completed. Also, the availability of fertilizer has increased from 302,450 tons in 2015 to 727,719 tons in 2020.
Livestock: During the period under review the population of cattle reached 33.4 million, poultry (83.28 million), of which traditional chicken were 38.77 million and improved/hybrid chicken were 44.51 million; pigs (2.14 million) and donkeys (657,389). Improvements of private sector owned cattle ranches and investments in beef processing factories have started to flourish. Annual livestock vaccine production has increased from 26,367,200 doses in 2015/16 to 58,016,325 doses in 2019/20 equivalent to an increase of 120 percent. The incidence of animal diseases has decreased from 20 percent in 2015/16 to 11 percent in 2019/20 respectively. Also, livestock mortalities due to diseases have decreased from 352,726 in 2015/16 to 221,732 in 2019/20 equivalent to 37 percent decline. The decrease in the incidence of livestock diseases is due to the construction of 104 new dips and the rehabilitation of 542 dips. During the period under review, livestock subsector growth has been stagnated where the average growth was 4.9 percent. However, during 2020 the livestock sub-sector
16 “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” REVIEW OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE FYDP II
growth reached 5 percent. Furthermore, the contribution of livestock subsector to GDP has had inconsistence growth. However, during 2020, the contribution of livestock subsector to GDP was 7.2 percent.
Construction Sector: The construction sector has also consistently expanded its share of GDP. The sector’s GDP in 2019 share stood at 14.2 percent, which is 3.1 percentage points higher than the baseline of 11.1 percent and 3.0 percent points higher than the end of FYDP II’s target of 11.8 percent. Over the past four years, the sector has been growing by 14.3 percent per annum. The growth of the sector has been primarily driven by the works on the road network, buildings and mining industries. In the road network, for instance, the Government has made massive investment by tarmacking a total of 3,537.0 kilometres of roads between 2015/16 and 2019/20; rehabilitating 300.9 kilometres of trunk roads, and construction of 10 large bridges, airports and other infrastructures (e.g., health facilities, Government buildings in Dodoma, student hostels at the University of Dar es Salaam).
The formal construction sector has been growing at a fast rate; but along with it, informal construction (building of structures, mainly dwellings without contracts, for instance, in many urban and rural settlements). Like in most Sub-Saharan African countries, many large-scale infrastructure construction contracts have been awarded to foreign contractors. Generally, local construction firms face shortage of funds (capital) and technical and managerial capability to undertake most of the foreign-funded and large projects.
The fifth-phase Government has taken keen interest in encouraging domestic firms to enhance their technical capacity to compete along with global (large) players. The presence of large international firms (including also in mining and gas sub-sectors) offers scope for technology transfer and the development of local firms to explore opportunities for upgrading, taking advantage of the possible access to (new) technology (transfer). In the meantime, the Government has also spoken firmly against corrupt practices in the sector in order to have transparent operating environment in which domestic private companies can thrive.
Energy Sector: During implementation of FYDP II electricity generation capacity has increased to 1,602.3 MW in 2019/20 from 1,308 MW in 2015/16. The rate of electricity loss has also declined from 19.0 percent in 2015/16 to 16.4 percent in 2019/2020. The number of customers connected to the national grid reached 2,766,745 in 2020 from 1,473,217 in 2016 and an overall Electricity Access Rate has increased from 67.8 percent to 78.4 percent in the same period. About 99.6 percent of the total population in urban areas have access to electricity while households connected are 39.9 percent. The households electrified by solar photovoltaic technology are 30.4 percent. Access to electricity in rural areas has increased from 49.3 percent in 2016 to 69.6 percent in 2019/20. The number of villages with access to electricity has increased from 2,018 villages in 2015 to 10,018 villages in December 2020. Further, the number of rural households connected to electricity has increased from 16.4 percent in 2016/17 to 24.3 percent in 2019/20. The increase in access and connectivity in rural areas was attributed to, among others, the Rural Energy Agency (REA) programme. The Energy Access and Use Situation Survey in Tanzania (2019/20) shows that the main energy source for cooking is firewood (63.5 percent) followed by charcoal (26.2 percent), Liquefied Petroleum Gas (5.1 percent), electricity (3 percent) and other sources (2.2 percent). Likewise, there is an increase in the use of modern energy sources for lighting, whereby in 2020, about 36.3 percent of households are using electricity as the main source of energy for lighting compared to 25.1 percent in 2016. This is followed by solar power which is used by 30.4 percent of households and rechargeable battery/torch (23 percent). The traditional sources of energy for lighting from kerosene have decreased from 22.3 percent in 2016/17 to 6.4 percent in 2019/20. While four (4) percent of households use other energy sources for lighting.
17 NATIONAL FIVE YEAR DEVELOPMENT PLAN FYDP III - 2021/22 – 2025/26
Mining Sector: During 2016 to 2019, the growth of mining sector has averaged 8.0 percent and its contribution to GDP has increased from 4.6 percent in 2015/16 to 5.9 percent in 2019/20. Also, revenues from export of minerals have increased from USD 1,912 (equivalent to TZS 4,464.71 billion) in 2015/16 to USD 2,898.8 (equivalent to TZS 6,769.0) in 2019/20 and non-tax revenues (fees and other charges) have increased from TZS 196 billion in 2015/16 to TZS 528.3 billion in 2019/20. The mining sector contribution have continued to increase since 2016/17 partly due to radical changes in extractive industry policies, rules and regulations, strategies that plugged the loopholes that hitherto hindered the flow of benefits out the natural endowments to the country’s citizenry.
Among the efforts and actions taken by the Government included construction of the wall at Mirerani (24 km long) to curb rampant smuggling of Tanzanite and establishment of mineral trading centres (39 centres) to enable orderly sales of minerals. Export of raw minerals was banned in preference for local value-addition processing. The 2017 legislation requires all minerals to be beneficiated in the country. In another bold move, in 2019, the Government was able to garner development agreements and issue of Special Mining Licences (SMLs) for Bulyanhulu, North Mara and Geita, Tulawaka and Buzwagi. In May 2017, new mines, Shanta Gold’s medium scale and New Luika Mine were opened, adding more firms in gold mining in the country. Also, the Government and Barrick established Twiga Minerals Corporation which is jointly owned by the Government (16 percent of shares) and Barrick (84 percent of shares). In 2019/20 Barrick disbursed TZS 100 billion to the Government as dividend. Other effort included Government partnership with LZ NICKEL Company to mine nickel minerals whereby Tembo Nickel Corporation Limited has been established where the Government owns 16 percent of shares and LZ NICKEL Company owns 84 percent of shares.
In terms of employment, between 2016/17 and 2019/20, the sector contributed 1,000,505 jobs, of which 809,696 (80.9 percent) were direct employment. The artisanal, small-scale mining sub-sector employs about 1.5 million people in rural areas, contributing not only to household income but also supporting Government’s efforts to reduce poverty particularly in rural areas.
Trade: In respect of trade there is an increased share of Tanzania’s exports to SADC from the baseline share of 12 percent (2015) to 14 percent (2019). The share of exports to EAC has declined from 16.0 percent (2015) to 12.3 percent in 2019. Other progress includes an increase in manufacturing exports to EAC from 6.3 percent (2016) to 10.8 percent (2019) which is 3 percentage points higher than the FYDP II’s target of 7 percent. The target for the share of exports to SADC has been surpassed reaching 26.4 percent (2019) against the target of 22 percent by 2020. Exports to EAC have increased from USD 430.6 in 2016 to USD 674.4 in 2019. In SADC, exports have increased from USD 1,112.7 in 2016 to USD 1,350.9 in 2019. The value of exports in SADC has increased due to increase in export of minerals compared to exports of manufactured goods.
Despite the recorded achievements realized in the period under review, trade sector encountered some challenges which are; Failure to meet international quality standards and or failure to compete, lack of information on availability of preferential markets, existence of non-tariff barriers especially along the border, lack of commitment/will by some private sector to meet the demands of specified markets, higher cost of doing business, lack of cold chain and storage facilities at the port and air ports for storage of manufactured and horticultural goods, lack of e-commerce skills and platforms and the onset of COVID-19 pandemic.
18 “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” REVIEW OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE FYDP II
Tourism Sector: The number of tourists increased from 1,137,182 in 2015 to 1,527,230 in 2019. Positive progress is also observed from the FYDP II’s indicator, ‘earnings from tourists.’ The earnings increased from the baseline figure of USD 1.9 billion in 2015 to USD 2.6 billion (equivalent to 6,071.3 TZS) by 2019 which is 36.8 percent increase from the baseline. Other achievements are an increase of licenced tourism operators from 1,242 in 2016 to 2,051 in 2020, also cultural tourism enterprises increased from 66 in 2016 to 76 in 2020. However due to the COVID-19 pandemic shock, the earnings are projected to significantly decline, and likely to fall short of the FYDP II’s target of USD 3.6 billion.
Industrial Development: The FYDP II identifies industrialisation, along with human development and implementation effectiveness, as the main policy objectives and a key driver of economic transformation. In 2016, the Government prepared an action plan for implementing FYDP II with regards to industrialisation. The strategy promoted the use of domestic inputs, improving an enabling environment for private sector investment and mobilisation of Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs). During the past four years of FYDP II 8,477 industries were established, of which 201 were large-scale, 460 were middle-scale, 3,406 were small and 4,410 were micro enterprises. Also, in 2019/20 alone, 303 industries were established, of which 138 were large establishments (95 established under Tanzania Investment Centre - TIC).
The establishment of these industries has led to the increase in the number of industries from 52,633 in 2015 to 61,110 industries in 2019. These establishments have increased the number of newly created jobs from 254,687 in 2015 to 482,601 in 2019. The contribution of industrial sector to GDP has increased from 7.9 percent in 2015 to 8.5 percent in 2019. The average growth of 8.3 percent in industrial sector has led to increases in the production of different manufactured goods. Overall, as of September 2020, Government achieved 75 percent of the targets set in 2015/16.
In pushing the agenda further, the Government called upon the Pension Funds to participate in industrialisa- tion by financing the revamping of manufacturing industries that had long stopped production and investing in new industries. In response to this call, over 35 industries were funded by the Pension Funds, creating 250,000 jobs. The major industries so established include: (i) An investment worth TZS 54 billion for a Shoe Factory in Moshi in cooperation with TIRDO and the Parastatal Pension Fund (PPF); (ii) A National Social Security Fund (NSSF) Joint Venture project for the construction of a 200,000 tonnes per year sugar factory at Mkulazi Prison in Morogoro; (iii) A TZS 9 billion NSSF loan to revive the Mwanza Milling Factory; and TZS 4.7 billion investment to expand the NDC Biotech Product in Kibaha; and (iv) Over TZS 339 billion have been invested by Pension Funds in 12 firms and several others.
19 NATIONAL FIVE YEAR DEVELOPMENT PLAN FYDP III - 2021/22 – 2025/26
2.4. Human Capital Development and Social Services
2.4.1. Education
Implementation of the Secondary Education Programme II involved construction of vital infrastructures in 3,904 schools (3,021 primary schools and 883 secondary schools); 547 dormitories, 101 houses for teachers; 25 administration buildings and 43 libraries. Infrastructures across all education levels have been improved through renovations of old schools, strengthening teaching and learning infrastructures and renovation of colleges of education. Use of ICT in teaching and learning has been increase by procuring ICT equipment for the institutions which were rehabilitated. This has led to increased enrolment of students studying mathematics, science and ICT subjects. Out of 89 old schools, 84 schools have been renovated and infrastruc- tures in 54 Folk Development Colleges (FDC) have been improved.
During the implementation of FYDP II, the number of classrooms has increased from 115,665 in 2015 to 136,292 in 2020; desks from 3,024,311 desks in 2015 to 8,095,207 desks in 2020; primary schools from 16,899 in 2015 to 18,158 in 2020. Also, the number of secondary schools have increased from 4,708 schools in 2015 to 5,402 schools in 2020. In addition, the Government continued to provide higher education loans where a total of 2.26 trillion shillings was disbursed; continuing to fund leadership allowances for head teachers, student compensation and school operating grants where 1.22 trillion shillings was provided for funding free primary education; the establishment of vocational training centers in vocational education institutions; and the strengthening of technical colleges and universities. Similarly, 1,696 schools have been provided with science laboratory equipment. Of these, 1,625 are public schools (commonly known as Ward Schools) and 71 are the oldest schools.
Overall, the assessment revealed that the implementation of Second Five-year Plan 1contributed to: an increase in the number of students enrolling in vocational training from 196,091 in 2015/16 to 320,143 in 2019/20 and vocational education from 117,067 in 2015/16 to 151,379 in 2019/20; an increase in the number of students enrolling in universities in the country from 65,064 in 2015/16 to 87,813 in 2019/20; and an increase in the number of beneficiaries of higher education loans from 125,126 students in 2015 to 132,392 in 2020. In addition, the pass rate for Standard Seven examinations has increased from 67 percent in 2015 to 81.5 percent in 2019 and Secondary (Form Four) from 68 percent in 2015 to 80.7 percent in 2019. Similarly, higher education graduates reached 60,940 in 2019/20, 90,849 vocational training in 2018/19 and vocational education 86,547 in 2019/20. During the period of implementation of the Second Plan, an amount of 3.15 trillion shillings has been spent on improving the education sector. The indicators of the education sector are as follows:
Gross Enrolment Ratio: Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) in pre-primary education declined from 112 percent in 2016 to 76.2 percent in 2020. The decline is a result of decline in the pupils eligible for enrolment. The GER in primary education has been steadily increasing over the years since 2016 and stands at 110.3 percent in 2019 compared to 91.3 percent in 2015. Similarly, in 2020, the Gender Parity Index (GPI) is at 1.01 meaning the numbers are closer in terms of male and female pupils. With regard to lower secondary education, the GER experienced an increasing trend from 36 percent 2016 to 43.9 percent 2020. The increasing trend, in an increasing population, indicates that more students are transitioning from primary to secondary education. The increase in enrolment in pre-primary, primary and lower secondary levels is mainly attributed to the implementation of “Fee-Free Basic Education Policy”, improving teaching and learning environment including rehabilitation and construction of infrastructures as well as strong partnership between Government, the private sector, Faith-Based Organisations (FBOs) and Community-Based Organisations (CBOs).
20 “Realising Competitiveness and Industrialisation for Human Development ” REVIEW OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE FYDP II
Net Enrolment Ratio: The Net Enrolment Ratio (NER) in pre-primary experienced a declining trend as it decreased from 44.6 percent in 2016 to 38.7 percent in 2019. The NER for girls stands at 40.3 percent slightly higher than for boys at 39.6 percent as shown in Figure 1.0. This indicates that there is relative gender equity in enrolment of pupils in pre-primary schools. The huge increase in Net Enrolment in 2016 is no doubt due to the Government’s introduction of fee-free basic education. In the same vein, NER in primary education increased from 84.0 percent in 2016 to 95.4 percent in 2019; implying high participation of official school-age population in primary education. This reveals also that the contribution of both Government and Non-Government education stakeholders to improve access and equity in primary education is bearing fruit. However, the great majority of pupils are enrolled in Government schools, even though both Government and Non-Government schools have shown an increase in enrolment. Regarding lower secondary, NER increased slightly from 33.3 percent in 2016 to 34.8 percent in 2019.
Figure 1: Total Enrolments in Government and Non-Government Pre-Primary Schools by Sex, 2014-2018