ETHIOPIA Food Security Update December 2007 • Ongoing restrictions on trade and movement, poor Figure 1. Estimated current food security conditions, quarter deyr (October to November) rains, locust 4 (Oct to Dec) 2007 infestations and limited humanitarian access to Warder, Korahe, Fik, Degehabur and Gode Zones have led to extreme levels of food insecurity (Figure 1). Unless humanitarian access and restrictions on trade and movement improve significantly, they could cause a humanitarian crisis among pastoral and agropastoral populations living in these areas as the dry season progresses. • Nominal prices for cereals and other commodities remain high in Addis Ababa and several other monitored markets (Bahir Dar, Mekelle and Dire Dawa). Despite some increases in income, these high prices are affecting the food security of the rural and urban poor, who heavily rely on the market to purchase food. Data source:FEWS NET and WFP/VAM Graphics by FEWS NET, October 2007 • This year’s meher season (June to October) production is at a record high. It is the fourth consecutive year of above average production. Despite this, about 8 eight million chronically food insecure people and an additional 2.4 million acutely food insecure people continue to require food and cash assistance due to chronic problems as well as decreased production this year and market‐related factors. Seasonal calendar and critical events FEWS NET Ethiopia FEWS NET Washington P O Box 1014, Addis Ababa 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Tel: 251-116-620217/18 Washington DC 20006 publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Fax: 251-116-620230 [email protected] for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] www.fews.net/ethiopia ETHIOPIA Food Security Update December 2007 Meher 2007/08 preliminary results Overall, meher crop production prospects are above average this year, even though some pockets across the country face poor harvests as a result of weather‐related hazards and locust infestation. Although official assessment figures are not available yet, the findings of the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Suppy Assessment Mission (CFSAM) indicate that overall area planted and production this year is slightly higher than that of last year. Last year’s bumper harvest was estimated at 20.11 million MT of cereals and pulses, which was 53 percent higher than the previous five‐year production average. The CFSAM, conducted between late November and the beginning of December, visited all crop‐producing zones of the country. According to the mission, the good performance of the belg (March to May) rains in most areas except for parts of Tigray and lowlands of Oromiya Regions, allowed for good land preparation. In addition to the good belg rains, high cereals prices and timely onset of the meher rains in most production areas were among the major factors contributing to increases in area planted. A slight increase in yield was also reported due to an increase in the use of fertilizer (388,000 MT of fertilizer was used this year, 13,000 MT more fertilizer than was used last year) and limited occurances of pests and diseases. Actual results from the assessment are expected to be released in January. Meher production is one of the most important determinants of food security in Ethiopia, especially in the crop‐producing parts of the country, which cover all regions except the dominantly‐pastoral Afar and Somali regions. The Meher season contributes 90 to 95 percent of total crop production in almost all crop‐dependent areas, with the exception of a few woredas in Southern Nations Nationalities and People’s Region and pocket areas of the Northeastern highlands that depend on belg production. This year’s above‐average meher harvest is expected to improve household food availability and income for farmers. It also provides good labour opportunities for poor farmers who depend on seasonal agricultural labor to earn their income. Despite the above‐average production, nominal prices of cereals may continue to rise, as they have for the past two years. Since labor wages have also increased this year, with an increase in the overall level of inflation, the impact of rising cereal prices on the food insecurity of poor households may be compensated for by the increase in wage labor. A detailed study on the impact of the high and rising prices of food and other essential commodities on the food security of the rural and urban poor is needed to understand the real impact. In addition to the CFSAM, which mainly assessed meher crop production, the annual Multi‐Agency Needs Assessment was also conducted between the end of November and beginning of December. The main objective of this assessment, which was led by the Disaster Prevention and Prepardness Agency (DPPA), is to assess food security at the woreda level. The assessment was conducted in all regions of the country, inclulding in pastoral areas. This year, assessments in Tigray, Amhara, Afar, Somali and Southern Nations Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNPR) was conducted using the Household Economy Approach (HEA), while, in the remaining regions, the traditional method was used. Assessments in Somali, Afar, Benshangul Gumuz and Gambella regions started late, and results are expected in January. Findings of assessments in Tigray, Amhara, Oromiya, Harari, Dire Dawa and Southern Nations nationalities and People’s Region (SNNPR), indicate that overall production prospects this year are above average, with almost all areas assessed reporting an increase in production compared to last year and to the five‐year average. The assessment team also reported increases in the price of cereals, livestock and labor wages across the country. Despite overall improvement, the assessment found that a number of people in Tigray, Amhara, Oromiya, Harari and SNNP Regions are projected to face survival and livelihood protection deficits in the current year. Those most at risk are from pocket areas of various livelihood zones in these areas. The main reasons for a higher proportion of the deficits, especially in Tigray and Amhara regions are chronic, such as small land holding, high population density, land degradation, limited off‐farm opportunities, limited use of improved farming techniques, rain‐fed production systems and repeated droughts. There are also areas that will require assistance due to weather‐related hazards such as floods, hailstorms, landslides and a dry spell (in parts of Gedeo, Sidama, S.Omo Amaro and Wolayita Zones of SNNP Region); erratic kiremt (June to September) rains (in the lowlands of East Hararghe, West Hararghe, Shewa, Bale and Guji Zones of Oromiya Region, as well as Harari Region) and hailstorms, frost, water logging, floods and pest infestations in Amhara Region. Locust infestations are also expected to cause a need for some level of assistance, though it is expected that the requirements stemming from this hazard will be low. Final figures for the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) and emergency relief requirements are expected to be released by the Food Security Coordination Bureau and the DPPA, respectively, in January 2008. Famine Early Warning Systems Network and World Food Programme 2 ETHIOPIA Food Security Update December 2007 Somali Region update Food security among pastoral and agro‐pastoral populations in southeastern Ethiopia remains precarious, despite temporary improvements following the deyr rains, which somewhat replenished pastures and water points. Most parts of Somali Region did not receive rain after mid‐November, and the rains they did receive were erratic, inadequate and below‐ normal. The regeneration of pasture and water was much lower than normal this year, and it is unlikely to sustain animals throughout the upcoming jilaal (December through January) dry season. Early animal movements and concentrations of animals in areas that received relatively better rains have already been reported from parts of Dagahabour, Fik, Afder and Liben zones. Disease outbreaks are increasingly likely as animals have already started moving and concentrating in some grazing areas such as Gode and Ferfer woredas of Gode Zone and Gashamo woreda of Korahe Zone in search of pasture and water. In addition, inadequate efforts to contain ongoing desert locust infestations, especially in the restricted zones (Warder, Korahe, Fik, Degehabur and Gode Zones) of the Region, will likely aggravate the pasture and browse problem, particularly in areas of Geladin, Danot, Boh, Degahabur and Gunagado woredas. As the dry season progresses, a livestock emergency appears imminent. Children, women, elderly, and the sick, who are left behind in areas where early animal movements have started, remain the most vulnerable. In addition to food security issues among pastoral populations of Somali Region, agro‐pastoral populations in the deyr‐ receiving zones (Degehabur, Fik, Gode, Korahe, Warder, Liben and Afder Zones) also face increased food insecurity due to inadequate and erratic rains in October which prevented planting efforts. A near total crop failure is expected in these areas. Thus, food availability among households in these areas is threatened, and in local markets it will not be available. In Jijiga and Shinile, the only zones that receive karan rains (July and August), production prospect is mixed. Near‐normal crop production is expected in Jijiga Zone, due to near‐normal performance of the rains. Crop production will generally be below‐normal in Shinile Zone, where karan rains were below average. The availability of water, especially in chronically‐deficient areas such as Aware district of Dagahabour Zone and Hamero and Sagag Districts of Fik zone, is also of significant concern. Nominal prices for staples and imported foods such as sugar and rice continue to increase steadily in the Region. An increase ranging from 20 to 40 percent has been reported on staple prices in Fik and Dagahabour zones, while nominal prices for imported foods (wheat flour and rice) have increased by more than 55 percent, compared to same time last year.