The Solar Thermal Potential in Europe
Werner Weiss AEE – Institute for Sustainable Technologies
Peter Biermayr Vienna University of Technology Share of Renewables 2005 and target 2020
Share of Renewable Energies in 2005 and 2020 60,00%
Share of Renewable Energies 2005 50,00% Goal for Renewable Energies 2020
40,00%
30,00%
20,00%
10,00%
0,00%
Italy Malta Ireland Latvia Poland Spain Austria BelgiumBulgaria Cyprus Estonia Finland France Greece Portugal Denmark Germany Hungary Lithuania RomaniaSlovakiaSlovenia Sweden Luxemburg Netherlands Czech Republic United Kingdom Heating and Cooling in EU countries
Final Energy Demand in EU
Heating and Transport Cooling 31% 49%
Electricity 20% Source: EREC, 2006 Source of data: EU (2008) Background of the Study
ESTIF assigned a potential study in order to determine the contribution of Solar Thermal to the 20% Renewable Target of the European Union and the long term Potential by 2050
Detailed studies were carried out for Austria, Denmark Germany, Poland and Spain.
Based on the 5 county studies a methodology was developed in order to calculate the overall potential for solar thermal and the economic benefits and costs for EU 27 Content of the Study
1. Current Heat demand in the selected countries 2. Current solar thermal market in the selected countries 3. Development of the heating and cooling demand 2020 – 2050 4. Solar thermal market development 2020 – 2050
5. Potential in the five reference countries
6. Overall Potential – EU 27 Final Energy Consumption EU-27 by Sector in 2005
Final Energy Consumption by Sector - 2005 EU 27 [Total: 13,609 TWh] Industry Service 28% 15%
Housholds 26%
Transport 31%
Source of data:European Communities 2008, EU energy and transport in figures, Statistical Pocket book 2007/2008 Low Temperature Heat Demand EU-27 by Sector in 2005
Low Temperature Heat Demand by Sector - 2005 EU 27 [Total: 4,640 TWh]
Service Industry 19% 20%
Households 61%
Source of data:European Communities 2008, EU energy and transport in figures, Statistical Pocket book 2007/2008 Low Temperature Heat Demand EU-27 by Sector in 2006
Final Energy Consumption for Heating and Air Conditioning - EU 27 in 2006 Total 4640 TWh Air conditioning Service 1,5% Water Heating Residential - SFH Air conditioning Residential Water Heating Residential - 5,5% 0,4% MFH 4,7% Industrial Heat - Low Temp. 19,5%
Space Heating Service 17,3%
Space Heating Residential - SFH 33,8%
Space Heating Residential - MFH 17,2% Low Temperature Heat Demand: Germany Heating and Hot Water - 2006
600,0 Electricity Biomass 500,0 District Heat Gas 400,0 Oil Coal
300,0
200,0
final energy consumption (TWh) 100,0
0,0 Space heating Water heating Low Temperature Heat Demand: Spain Heating and Hot Water - 2006
80,0 Electricity 70,0 Biomass Gas 60,0 Oil Coal 50,0
40,0
30,0
20,0 final energy consumption (TWh) 10,0
0,0 Space heating Water heating Development of the Heating and Cooling Demand 2005 – 2050
120,0% Space heating Industrial heat 100,0%
80,0%
60,0%
40,0%
20,0% Relative development of energy sonsumption (2005=1) 0,0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source of data:Haas et al. (2007) and calculations EEG Energy consumption for Air Conditioning in the Residential Sector 2006 - 2050
Austria Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh) 2005 2020 2030 2050 0,15 0,26 0,57 0,83 Germany Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh) 2005 2020 2030 2050 0,88 1,63 3,34 5,22 Denmark Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh) 2005 2020 2030 2050 0,03 0,06 0,21 0,53 Spain Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh) 2005 2020 2030 2050 6,23 10,8 15,84 19,95 Poland Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh) 2005 2020 2030 2050 0,14 0,78 1,66 2,36
Source of data: EECCAC; sources of 2020, 2030 and 2050 data: calculations by EEG and AEE INTEC Energy consumption for Air Conditioning in the Service Sector 2006 - 2050
Austria: Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWhe) 2005 2020 2030 2050 0,40 0,49 0,77 1,03
Germany: Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWhe) 2005 2020 2030 2050 3,13 5,78 10,63 13,86
Denmark: Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWhe) 2005 2020 2030 2050 0,09 0,2 0,52 0,65
Spain: Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWhe) 2005 2020 2030 2050 22,1 34,1 45,98 57,97 Poland: Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh) 2005 2020 2030 2050 0,44 1,22 2,40 3,35
Source of data: EECCAC; sources of 2020, 2030 and 2050 data: calculations by EEG and AEE INTEC The Solar Thermal Potential
EU 27 Scenario 1 – Business As Usual
• No reduction of the heating and cooling demand compared to 2006. • Moderate political support mechanisms: Besides a few forefront countries no solar obligations for new residential buildings; subsidies (10-30% of the system cost) for residential buildings and moderate energy prices of fossil energy. • Low R&D rate and therefore no solution for high energy density heat stores or new collector materials; no sufficient and cost competitive solutions for solar thermal cooling. • Main focus on solar thermal systems for hot water preparation in the residential sector; solar combisystems with low solar fraction (10-20%); marginal market diffusion in all other sectors. • Low growth rates in all EU 27 countries of installed capacity (7-10% per annum until 2020). Scenario 2 – Advanced Market Deployment
• Moderate reduction of the heating demand compared to 2006 (depending on the country but on average: -5% by 2020, -10% by 2030 and -20% by 2050). • Political support mechanisms: Solar obligations for all new residential buildings; subsidies for existing residential, service and commercial buildings as well as for industrial applications (subsidies: 10 - 30% of the system cost) or constantly moderate rising energy prices of fossil energy. • Medium R&D rate and therefore solutions for high energy density heat stores and new collector materials; sufficient and cost competitive solutions for solar thermal cooling by the year 2020. • Main focus on solar combisystems for hot water preparation and space heating in the residential sector; solar combisystems with low solar fraction (10-20%) until 2020 and medium solar fraction (20-50%) from 2020; moderate market diffusion in all other sectors. • Medium growth rate of installed capacity (10-15% per annum until 2020). Scenario 3 – Full R&D and Policy Scenario
• Significant reduction of the heat demand compared to 2006 (depending on the country but on average: -10% by 2020, -20% by 2030 and -30% by 2050). • Full political support mechanisms: Solar obligations for all new and existing residential, service and commercial buildings as well as for low temperature industrial applications or high energy prices of fossil energy. • High R&D rate and therefore solutions for cost efficient high energy density heat stores and new collector materials; sufficient and cost competitive solutions for solar thermal cooling available by 2020. • Main focus on solar combisystems for hot water preparation and space heating in the residential sector; solar combisystems with low solar fraction (10-20%) until 2020 and high solar fraction (50-100%) from 2020; substantial market diffusion in all other sectors. • High growth rate of installed capacity (~25% per annum until 2020). In order to use the Potential… Solar Active House Large-Scale Prefabricated Solar Renovation Large-Scale Prefabricated Solar Renovation
source: gap solution Thermal Energy Storage – The Key Issue Thermal Energy Storage – The Key Issue
≈ 100 MJ/m³
≈ 300 - 500 MJ/m³
• Thermo-chemical Heat Storage
≈ 1000 MJ/m³ LARGE-SCALE INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS District Heating – 3MWth, AEVG, Graz, Austria
Source: S.O.L.I.D. RESULTS shown on two reference countries Final Energy Demand - Austria
Final Energy Demand in Austria - 2006 [Total: 311 TWh]
Industry Service 32% 14%
Housholds 25%
Transport 29% Share of Heat - Austria
Total Final Energy Consumption in Austria and share of heat - 2006 [Total: 311 TWh] High temperature heat >250°C 10%
Low temperature Electricity and heat <250°C Transport 35% 55% Solar Thermal Potential Austria
Contribution of Solar Thermal to the Austrian Heating and Cooling Demand by Sector
Industrial Heat - Low Temp. 120,00 CombisystemsAir conditioning Service Space Heating Service Air conditioning Residential (el.) 100,00 for spaceWater Heating heating Residential - MFHand Space Heating Residential - MFH Waterhot Heating water Residential - SFH Space Heating Residential - SFH 80,00
[TWh] 60,00
40,00 40% 19% 10% 20,00 0,9% Heat
0,00 Heating/Cooling Solar Thermal Heat Demand AT Solar Thermal Heat Demand AT Solar Thermal Heat Demand AT Solar Thermal Demand AT - 2006 - 2020 -7,5% 2020 - 2030 - 20% 2030 - 2050 - 38% 2050 2006 Roof and facade areas needed for installation of solar collectors to achieve the requirements of the Full R&D and Policy
Scenario - Austria Suitable area of roof and facade needed
40,00% 60,00
35,00% Share of suitable land area needed [%] 50,00 Share of suitable roof area needed [%] 30,00% Share of suitable facade area needed [%] Suitable land area needed [km²] Suitable roof area needed [km²] 40,00 25,00% Suitable facade area needed [km²]
20,00% 30,00
15,00% 20,00 [km² solar area needed]
10,00%
[% of architecturally suitable area needed] 10,00 5,00%
0,00% - 0,33 3 5 8 [m²/inhabit.] Solar Thermal Potential Spain
Contribution of Solar Thermal to the Spanish Heating Industrial Heat - Low Temp. and Cooling Demand by Sector Air conditioning Service CombisystemsSpace Heating Service Air conditioning Residential Water Heating Residential - MFH 300,00 for space heating, cooling and hot water Space Heating Residential - MFH Water Heating Residential - SFH Competition of PV drivenSpace Heating cooling?? Residential - SFH 250,00
200,00
63%
[TWh] 150,00
100,00 29% Cooling and 50,00 Heat 0,22% 5%
0,00 Heating/Cooling Solar Thermal Heat Demand ES Solar Thermal Heat Demand ES Solar Thermal Heat Demand ES Solar Thermal Demand ES - 2006 - 2020 -1% 2020 - 2030 -4.4% 2030 - 2050 -12% 2050 2006 Roof and facade areas needed for installation of solar collectors to achieve the requirements of the Full R&D and Policy Scenario - Spain
Suitable area of land, roof and facade needed in Spain
60,00% 250,00
Share of suitable land area needed [%] 50,00% Share of suitable roof area needed [%] 200,00 Share of suitable facade area needed [%] Suitable land area needed [km²] 40,00% Suitable roof area needed [km²] Suitable facade area needed [km²] 150,00
30,00%
100,00
20,00% [km² solar area needed]
50,00 [% of architecturally suitable area needed] 10,00%
0,00% - 0,02 0,5 3 6 [m²/inhabit.] Solar Thermal Potential EU27
Contribution of Solar Thermal to the EU 27 Heating and Cooling Demand by Sector
Industrial Heat - Low Temp. Air conditioning Service 5000,00 Space Heating Service Air conditioning Residential 4500,00 Water Heating Residential - MFH Space Heating Residential - MFH 4000,00 Water Heating Residential - SFH Space Heating Residential - SFH 3500,00
3000,00
[TWh] 2500,00
2000,00 47%
1500,00 15% 1000,00 3,6% 500,00 0,2%
0,00 Heating/Cooling Solar Thermal Heat Demand Solar Thermal Heat Demand Solar Thermal Heat Demand Solar Thermal Demand EU 27 - 2006 2020 -9% 2020 2030 -20% 2030 2050 -31% 2050 2006 Solar Thermal Potential EU27 Contribution to the overall low temperature heat and cooling demand
Market Development 2005 - 2050 according to 3 Szenarios - Europe 3500 Business as usual 3000 Advanced market deployment Full R&D and Policy Scenario 2500 Combisystems 2000 high solar fraction
1500 GWth Combisystems 1000 low solar fraction
500 1.5 m²/ inh = hot water 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Solar Thermal Potential EU27 Contribution to the overall low temperature heat and cooling demand
Market Development 2005 - 2050 according to 3 Szenarios - Europe 3500 Business as usual 3000 Advanced market deployment 8 m²/Inh = 2716 GW (3880 Mill m²) 47% Full R&D and Policy Scenario 2500
2000
1500 GWth 3 m²/Inh = 1019 GW (1455 Mill m²) 15% 1000
500 0.8m²/Inh = 271 GW (388 Mill m²) 3.6%
0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Solar Thermal Potential EU27
Contribution to the EU 20% Renewable Energy Goal
Assuming a 9% reduction of the overall final energy demand by 2020 compared to the year 2006, the contribution of solar thermal to the EU 20% Renewable Energies Goal would be 6.3% under the RDP scenario and 2.4% under the less ambitious AMD scenario.
Related to the 11.5 percentage points necessary increase of renewable energies (Reference share 2005 = 8.5%) in the EU 27 countries until 2020, the contribution of solar thermal would be 12% according to the RDP scenario; 4.5% according to the AMD scenario and 2.9% in the business as usual scenario. Growth Rate in terms of Installed Collector Area
Annual Growth 25,8%
GWth Mill. m² Status 2005 14,2 20,2 Installed in 2006 2,2 3,1 2007 2,8 4,0 2008 3,5 5,0 2009 4,4 6,3 2010 5,5 7,9 2011 6,9 9,9 2012 8,7 12,4 2013 10,9 15,6 2014 13,8 19,7 2015 17,3 24,7 2016 21,8 31,1 2017 27,4 39,1 2018 34,4 49,2 2019 43,3 61,9 2020 54,5 77,8 Economical Impact
Jobs in Solar Thermal EU 27 RDP Scenario
500.000
450.000
400.000
350.000
300.000
250.000
200.000 Number of Jobs 150.000
100.000
50.000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Economical Impact
Total Investment 2006 - 2020 [Total 214 Billion €]
70
67 60
50
40 44 Billion € 38 30 34
20
10 6 13 11 2
0 SFH MFH SFH MFH Service Service Low Temp. Residential - Residential - Residential Residential - Residential - Water Heating Water Heating Space Heating Space Heating Space Heating Industrial Heat - Air conditioning Air conditioning Economical Impact
Installed Total Investment capacity Collector area System cost excl. VAT until…
[GWth] [Mill. m²] [€/m²] [Bilion €]
2006 16 23 650 15 2020 272 388 553 214 2030 1.018 1.454 470 683 2050 2.716 3.880 399 1.549
Environmental Impact
Solar Yield
1.600 1.552 1.400
1.200
1.000
800 [TWh/a] 600 582 400
8 200 155
0 2006 2020 2030 2050 Environmental Impact
Oil Equivalent
250,0
217 200,0
150,0
Billion t/a 100,0 81 22 50,0 1,2
0,0 2006 2020 2030 2050 Environmental Impact
Avoided CO2 Emissions
700,0 687 600,0
500,0
400,0 Million t/a 300,0 258 200,0 69 3,8 100,0
0,0 2006 2020 2030 2050 Summary
It‘s the right moment:
Heat accounts for almost 50% of the Final energy demand in the EU
All EU 27 countries have to work out an Renewables Action Plan this year.
Without the renewable heat sector, the targets will not be reached
Solar Thermal can contribute considerable Thank you for your attention