Food Supply Prospects
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Food Supply Prospects FOR THE SECOND HALF OF 2011 ___________________________________________________________________________________ Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) July 2011 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Contents Glossary ............................................................................................................................... 3 Acronyms ............................................................................................................................ 4 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 5 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 9 Somali .............................................................................................................................. 9 Oromia ........................................................................................................................... 14 Amhara ........................................................................................................................... 18 SNNPR ............................................................................................................................ 21 Tigray ............................................................................................................................. 24 Afar ................................................................................................................................ 27 Annex 1: Emergency Beneficiaries and food requirement by Woreda, Zone & Region ...... 31 2 Glossary Belg Short rainy season from February/March to June/July (National) Deyr Short rains from October to November (Somali Region) Ganna Belg season during February to May ( (Borena and Guji zones) Gu Main rains from March to June ( Somali Region) Karan Rains from mid-July to September in the Northern zones of Somali region (Jijiga and Shinile zones) Karma Main rains from July to September (Afar Region) Kebele The smallest administrative unit Meher/Kiremt Main rains from June to September in crop dependent areas Sugum Short rains ( not more than 5 days )between March and April (Afar region) Woreda Equivalent to a district, consisting of Kebeles, Zone Administrative unit below a region (consisting of several weredas) 3 Acronyms CARE CARE Ethiopia DRMFSS Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector DPFSB Disaster Prevention and Food Security Bureau FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FEWS-Net Famine Early Warning System Network GOAL Irish NGO MoA Ministry of Agriculture MoH Ministry of Health MoWE Ministry of Water Resources and Energy NGOs Non- Governmental Organizations PSNP Productive Safety Net Programme Reference The year in which the baseline data for Household Economy Approach Year (HEA) analysis is collected SC-UK Save the Children - United Kingdom SNNPR Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Region UN United Nations UN/OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund WFP World Food Programme WVI World Vision International 4 Executive Summary The Food Supply Prospect document reports on the findings of the May-June mid-belg 2011 assessment jointly carried out by Government and Partners in six regions: Afar, Amhara, Oromia, Somali, SNNP and Tigray. In Somali Region, the 2011 gu rains came late, were below normal and poorly distributed. While the rains brought some relief, the overall performance has been poor, bringing only limited benefits on pasture, browses and water availability. Severe water shortages have exacerbated the situation. Expenditure on water and other essential non-food items has been very high due to high prices. Pastoralists have been forced to trek long distances to find water. Moreover, a significant number of pastoralists from Kenya and Somalia have migrated to the Region. Livestock conditions have severely deteriorated. Young, lactating and pregnant animals have suffered the most, resulting in rapidly declining milk production. Newborns slaughters have increased and livestock deaths have been reported during the extended dry period and onset of 2011 gu rains. The rains have not been enough to benefit rain-fed and flood recession farming communities but provided supplementary moisture for irrigated crops along Shebelle River. Furthermore, the prices for staple cereals and food items like sugar and rice have substantially increased following the failure of crop production and reductions in supply to remote areas. Prices of livestock deteriorated significantly, negatively affecting the terms of trade and the purchasing power of the pastoralists. Declining livestock production and products, deteriorating livestock-cereal terms of trade, Poor crop production and high food prices will all contribute to a worsening of the food security situation. As a result, a total 1,438,826 people will require emergency food assistance in the second half of 2011. In Oromia Region, the onset of ganna rain was late on average by 6-8 weeks in pastoralist areas of Borena, Guji and Bale zones. The onset of belg rain was also late, on average by 4-8 weeks, in cropping areas of Arsi, West Arsi, East Hararghe and West Hararghe zones. After onset, rains’ performance was erratic and uneven in distribution. The prolonged dry period caused by the failure of 2010 hagaya rains and delayed on set of 2011 ganna/belg rains led to serious shortages of water and pasture, late and below normal coverage of short maturing crops and delayed planting of long cycle crops in most parts of these zones. Furthermore, physical condition of livestock is severely emaciated and livestock death has been increasing in most affected pastoral and agro-pastoral areas. The supply of staple foods and other grain has been reported to decline except in East Hararghe. In Bale and Borena zones, the grain supply has been described as very low. On the other hand, livestock supply to the market was above normal in pastoral and agro pastoral zones as households have to sell 5 more livestock to buy grain and also to get rid of the weaker animals. Terms of trade are not favoring pastoral and agro-pastoral communities. Food insecurity is widespread in affected zones. Cases of severe malnutrition problem on children and mothers have been reported in some woreda of Bale, East Hararghe, West Hararghe, West Arsi and Arsi zones. Due to the combination of the factors above, food security may worsen further in the coming months, unless required interventions are carried out. The most affected areas include some parts of Borena, Guji, Bale, Arsi, West Arsi, East and West Hararghe zones. Thus, a total of 1,889,267 will require emergency food assistance in the Region in the second half of 2011 as a result of 2010 meher and this year belg rains failure. In Amhara Region, the amount of rainfall received during the season in most belg areas was inadequate and uneven in distribution. As a result of these factors, crops were at early stage at the time of the assessment and crop production prospects heavily depend on the rainfall condition of the coming months (June and July), which in turn extends the harvesting period by two to three months from the usual time. Belg rains have contributed to the improvement of pasture and drinking water. Nevertheless, conditions remain unsatisfactory in chronically water and pasture deficit areas in North Wollo, North Shoa, and South Wollo zones. Prices of cereals and pulses have increased considerably compared to the same month last year and further increases are also expected until the 2011 meher harvest (October-December). Livestock prices have shown more or less stable conditions, due to better market access and improvement of infrastructures. Considering available income sources, coping mechanism and the ongoing PSNP and relief food assistance, the food security situation will be stable up to the end of June 2011. However, the current belg production is not promising and it is anticipated that there will be additional beneficiaries after June 2011. Therefore, continuing ongoing emergency food interventions is needed to avert further deterioration of the security situation. Hence, the ongoing emergency food assistance in the Region will continue for 420,045 people in the second half of 2011. In SNNP Region, the onset, amount, intensity and distribution of the belg rains were very poor and seriously affected the overall agricultural activities. The harvest of sweet potato was extremely poor and planting of belg crops such as maize, haricot beans, sweet potato and teff was delayed. Planted area coverage decreased by 30-45 percent. No major harvest was expected between May and mid July. Water and pasture availability for livestock was also critically affected. Livestock migration and death was reported by some woreda due to pasture and water shortage (M.Abaya, Kemba, Konso , Benatsemaye and Hammer). 6 Cereal prices have shown considerable increases compared to the same period in 2010 and are expected to increase further until the coming harvest. On the other hand, livestock prices particularly that of breeding cattle have shown a declining trend since February 2011 due to their poor body conditions. The current food security situation is critical in the Region and therefore, a total of 255,336 people are likely to require additional assistance as of July 2011. In Tigray Region, the on-set of