RESTRUCTURING THE SOVIET-ETHIOPIAN RELATIONSHIP: A CASE STUDY IN ASYMMETRIC EXCHANGE TOMMIE CROWELL ANDERSON-JAQUEST A Thesis submitted to the University of London in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy London School of Economics and Political Science MAY 2002 UMI Number: U613342 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U613342 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 TH£S£S I" ABSTRACT This thesis aims to explore the dynamics of exchange operating in special relationships initially formed and largely sustained on an amicable basis between two states of vastly unequal power. The claim is made that the weak state is likely to be adversely affected in the longer term by the persistence of negative patterns of asymmetric exchange, despite the accrual of considerable benefits. To test the validity of this proposition, selected theoretical perspectives on exploitation and manipulation are examined and applied to the analyses of political, military, economic and development issues arising in respect of the Soviet-Ethiopian relationship in the Brezhnev and Gorbachev periods. The findings indicate that the dynamics of asymmetric exchange are much more complex than originally envisaged. The Soviet-Ethiopian relationship involved far more than the changing interests of officials whose interests and priorities were sometimes compatible and sometimes conflicting. A special relationship developed between ruling elites in these two sovereign states in the Brezhnev era, largely as a consequence of Cold War competition and ideological bonding. Although evidence indicates that Mengistu’s administration had a lot to do with the relationship’s progression, the negative patterns of asymmetric exchange that subsequently developed adversely affected Ethiopia more than they did the Soviet Union. These patterns persisted after Gorbachev assumed power, and the adverse impact lingered on after both sovereign states had fragmented. The complex dynamics and adverse impacts of asymmetric exchange are not unique to the Soviet Union and its relationship with non-capitalist states like Ethiopia. In this thesis, Cold War conditions may have largely determined the process of pattern formation, but the findings indicate that similar patterns have been demonstrated in relationships between powerful and weak states in the past and they continue to appear in the present. TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements i List of Charts and Tables ii List of Abbreviations iv Introduction 1 1. Changing Soviet Perspectives about Socialist-oriented States 5 The Soviet Union and socialist-oriented states during Brezhnev’s 5 time in power Gorbachev, New Thinking and socialist-oriented states. 16 Conclusion 30 2. Asymmetry, Interests and Exploitation 33 Patterns of asymmetric exchange in relations between powerful 33 and weak states Changing African interests in Soviet-style socialism 42 Asymmetry in the Soviet-Ethiopian relationship 45 Conclusion 58 3. Restructuring Political Relations 61 Interests and influence in Brezhnev’s time 62 The restructuring of political relations after 1985 70 Conclusion 90 4. Military Dimensions of the Relationship 94 Military relations before Gorbachev 94 The changing character of military relations in the Gorbachev era. 110 Conclusion 123 5. The Progression of Economic Relations 126 Trade, aid and debt in the Brezhnev period 126 Trade, aid and debt in Gorbachev’s time 146 Conclusion 172 6. Soviet Influence upon Ethiopian Plans for Agricultural 175 Development Soviet influence upon Ethiopian development strategies under 176 Brezhnev Emulation in Ethiopia’s agricultural development after 1985 195 Conclusion 217 7. The adverse impact of Asymmetric Exchange 219 The Soviet-Ethiopian relationship 219 Soviet relations with other non-capitalist states 227 Asymmetry in other relationships 240 Conclusion 249 Bibliography 252 Acknowledgement First of all, I should like to express my gratitude to my research supervisor Professor Margot Light for her patience, her guidance, and the very great care she has taken to review constructively all of my draft chapters over the years. I should also like to thank Professor Theo Barker and Dr Randolph Kent who initially encouraged me to undertake research studies at the London School of Economics (LSE) and supported my application to the School. Over the years, the academic staff in the International Relations Department of the LSE, the library staff of the British Library of Political and Economic Science and my own students have provided extremely valuable assistance and the motivation essential for this research effort. I would like to dedicate this thesis to Bruce Crowell, my father, who always encouraged me to do my best, and to my husband, Gordon Jaquest, for his understanding and support. ii LIST OF CHARTS AND TABLES No Description Page Chart 1 Ethiopian trade turnovers with major capitalist and socialist 127 trading partners, 1976-1984. Chart 2 Trade turnover comparisons for the periods 1976-1979,1980- 128 1983 and 1984. Chart 3 Changing patterns in Ethiopia’s balance of trade with the 129 major capitalist trading partners and the Soviet Union, 1976- 1984. Chart 4 Ethiopian imports from major capitalist trading partners 130 and the Soviet Union, compared for the periods 1976-1979 and 1980-1983. Chart 5 Soviet trade turnovers with Ethiopia, compared for the 131 periods 1967-1975 and 1976-1984. Chart 6 Ethiopian goods exported to the Soviet Union, 1981-1984. 133 Chart 7 Soviet goods imported into Ethiopia, 1981-1984. 134 Chart 8 Changes in the distribution of percentage shares of Soviet 136 goods imported into Ethiopia under codes 3, 6 and 7,1981- 1984. Chart 9 Ethiopia’s outstanding debt to the major capitalist trading 142 partners, the Soviet Union and the World Bank Group in percentage terms for the years 1976,1980 and 1984. Chart 10 Ethiopia’s increasing indebtedness to the Soviet Union, 1976- 143 1984. Chart 11 Soviet trade turnovers with Ethiopia from 1985 to 1989, in 147 comparison to 1980. Chart 12 Ethiopian trade turnovers with the major capitalist trading 148 partners and the Soviet Union for the period 1985-1991. iii LIST OF CHARTS AND TABLES (cont) No Description Page Chart 13 Annual percentage shares of the Soviet Union’s trade 149 turnover with Ethiopia, in comparison to the major capitalist partners, 1985-1991. Chart 14 Export-import comparisons in Ethiopia’s balance of trade 150 with the Soviet Union and the major capitalist trading partners for the period 1985-1991. Chart 15 Export-import comparisons in the Soviet Union’s trade 152 turnover with Ethiopia for the years 1985-1989. Chart 16 Ethiopian exports to the Soviet Union for the period 1985- 153 1990. Chart 17 Soviet goods imported into Ethiopia for the period 1985- 155 1990. Chart 18 Fluctuations in the value of Soviet petroleum products 156 imported into Ethiopia, 1985-1990. Chart 19 Comparisons in the values of Soviet manufactured industrial 157 goods imported into Ethiopia, 1985-1987 and 1988-1990. Chart 20 Comparisons in the values of Soviet machinery and transport 158 goods imported into Ethiopia, 1985-1987 and 1988-1990. Table Ethiopian agricultural projects partly funded by the Soviet 168 Union. iv List of Abbreviations 10YDP 10 Year Development Plan of Ethiopia (1984/5 to 1993/4) 3YDP Three Year Development Plan of Ethiopia (1986-1989) Abiotawi Seded Revolutionary Flame, a military-dominated socialist party. AETU All Ethiopian Trade Union AMC Agricultural Marketing Corporation CELU Confederation of Ethiopian Labour Unions CMEA Council of Mutual Economic Assistance, also known as Comecon COPWE The Commission to Organise a Party of the Workers of Ethiopia CPSC Central Planning Supreme Council of Ethiopia CPSU Communist Party of the Soviet Union Derg Coordinating Committee of the Armed Forces, Police and Territorial Army EAETS Ethiopian Annual External Trade Statistics ECMC Ethiopian Coffee Marketing Corporation EDORM Ethiopian Democratic Officers' Revolutionary Movement EPDM Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement EPLF Eritrean People's Liberation Front EPRDF Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front EPRP Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Party ETGVT Government of the People's Democratic Republic of Ethiopia ETPMG Ethiopian Provisional Military Government EUP Ethiopian Unity Party FNLA National Front for the Liberation of Angola FRELIMO National Front for the Liberation of Mozambique ICRC International Committee of the Red Cross MEISON Mella Ethiopia Socialist Nekenake (All-Ethiopia Socialist Movement) MLVP Marxist-Leninist Vanguard Party MPLA Marxist-oriented People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola MPLA PL MPLA Party of Labour NBE National Bank of Ethiopia NCCP The National Commission for Central Planning in Ethiopia NEP New Economic Policy OPDO Oromo People's Democratic Organisation PC Producer cooperative PDRE People's Democratic Republic of Ethiopia PIP Public Investment Programme of the Ethiopian government. PMAC Provisional