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Or a Classic Car) Laurs, DK; Renneboog, Luc Tilburg University My Kingdom for a Horse (or a Classic Car) Laurs, DK; Renneboog, Luc Publication date: 2018 Document Version Early version, also known as pre-print Link to publication in Tilburg University Research Portal Citation for published version (APA): Laurs, DK., & Renneboog, L. (2018). My Kingdom for a Horse (or a Classic Car). (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 2018-037). CentER, Center for Economic Research. 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Download date: 01. okt. 2021 No. 2018-037 MY KINGDOM FOR A HORSE (OR A CLASSIC CAR) By Dries Laurs, Luc Renneboog 11 September 2018 ISSN 0924-7815 ISSN 2213-9532 My Kingdom for a Horse (or a Classic Car) Dries Laurs Tilburg University and Luc Renneboog1 Tilburg University Forthcoming Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money Abstract: This paper investigates the price determinants and investment performance of classic cars comprising various categories starting from veteran cars (built between 1888 and 1907) up to modern classics (built between 1975 and 1990). We examine a sample of 29,000 classic car auction sales conducted globally between 1998 and 2017. A hedonic pricing methodology is used to construct several classic car price indices, which enable a risk-return analysis. Classic cars appreciated annually by 3.37% and 5.63%, respectively in real and in nominal terms before transaction costs. Investments in ‘blue chip’ classic cars (12.50%) and Italian classics (11.28%) generate the highest annual nominal returns. On a risk-adjusted basis, classic cars have outperformed equity and other emotional assets such as art, but underperformed bonds and gold over the past two decades. The risk-adjusted returns on the category of affordable classics are similar to those of equity investments. Keywords: alternative investments, collectibles, emotional assets, hedonic regression, collectible cars, vintage cars JEL codes: G11, G12, Z11, Z23 1 Corresponding author: Luc Renneboog: [email protected]; Tilburg University, POBox 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg, the Netherlands. Dries Laurs: [email protected]. 1 My Kingdom for a Horse (or a Classic Car) Abstract: This paper investigates the price determinants and investment performance of classic cars comprising various categories starting from veteran cars (built between 1888 and 1907) up to modern classics (built between 1975 and 1990). We examine a sample of 29,000 classic car auction sales conducted globally between 1998 and 2017. A hedonic pricing methodology is used to construct several classic car price indices, which enable a risk-return analysis. Classic cars appreciated annually by 3.37% and 5.63%, respectively in real and in nominal terms before transaction costs. Investments in ‘blue chip’ classic cars (12.50%) and Italian classics (11.28%) generate the highest annual nominal returns. On a risk-adjusted basis, classic cars have outperformed equity and other emotional assets such as art, but underperformed bonds and gold over the past two decades. The risk-adjusted returns on the category of affordable classics are similar to those of equity investments. 1. Introduction While trading in emotional assets yields financial returns, other benefits arise for these ‘investments of passion’. First, it is in the nature of emotional assets that part of the utility they produce to the owner is enjoyed in the form of an ‘emotional dividend’, which boils for example down to the aesthetic enjoyment of owning a collectible item or to the signalling of one’s wealth or social status. Second, the degree to which these type of investments are uncorrelated to traditional financial assets, such as equities or bonds, could make them attractive investment candidates from a portfolio diversification perspective. Within the investment class of collectibles, a vast range of different emotional assets have been studied, including wine (Burton & Jacobsen, 2001; Sanning, Shaffer & Sharratt, 2006; Dimson, Rousseau & Spaenjers, 2015), collectible stamps (Dimson & Spaenjers, 2011), fine violins (Ross & Zondervan, 1989; Graddy & Margolis, 2011), rare gemstones and diamonds (Renneboog & Spaenjers, 2012), and fine art (Baumol, 1986; Goetzmann, 1993; Mei & Moses, 2002; Renneboog & Spaenjers, 2013; Korteweg et al., 2016). To date however, no substantial research has been conducted into the risk and return characteristics of classic cars2, which are enjoying an increased popularity and constitute a substantial international market. Auction prices of high-end vintage cars such as classic Ferraris are regularly appearing in the news.3 In 2016, for example, a 1957 Ferrari 335S Spider Scaglietti was sold at a Paris auction for a record-setting €32 million (Sharman, 2016). And in August 2018, a 1962 Ferrari 250 GTO – one of 36 2 The Classic Car Club of America (CCCA) defines a classic car as “a fine or distinctive automobile, either American or foreign built, produced between 1915 and 1948” (CCCA, 2016). In this paper, the term ‘classic car’ refers to the much less restricting definition of any car that is older than 25 years. Terms such as ‘vintage car’, ‘classic car’, and ‘collectible car’ are often used interchangeably. 3 “Best of Money: the classic car is the investment star”. Financial Times. April 8, 2016: https://www.ft.com/content/fc2a08b8-f824-11e5-96db-fc683b5e52db; “Passion investing in classic cars is gaining speed”. CNBC. January 4, 2016: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/04/passion-investing-in-classic-cars-is- gaining-speed.html; “Stop kidding yourself. A classic car is (almost) never a good investment”. Bloomberg News. August 14, 2015. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-14/stop-kidding-yourself-a-classic- car-is-almost-never-a-good-investment 2 ever produced – changed hands for €41.6 million, making it the most expensive classic car ever sold in an auction (De Standaard, 2018). The popular press, however, often fails to consider risk-return trade- offs and investment benchmarks in its reporting on the viability of classic car investments. Moreover, claims regarding this viability are insufficiently backed by academic research (which is largely lacking). This paper contributes to the literature by filling this gap and answers the question as to whether classic cars be regarded as a viable alternative investment class. In order to do so, we will apply hedonic pricing models on an extensive data set of car auction records. The validity of our findings is enhanced by the fact that we are able to collect for a large sample of auction sales (29,002) more than 20 different physical characteristics of each car including technical aspects of the car(‘s engine), judgements of the condition, rarity, uniqueness, provenance etc. Hence, this analysis enables us to understand the price-determining factors of classic cars and as such whether prices are determined mainly by the physical car characteristics or by emotional considerations. In addition, we examine the financial aspects of this niche asset class which we can then compare to those of financial and other real asset classes. Within the segment of alternative investments, the collectable classic cars market is substantial as its auction segment alone represents about USD 1.3 billion a year (and the private market is estimated to be a multiple of this segment). The combined ownership value of classic cars around the world is estimated at USD 120 billion (Mische and Spizzirri, 2014). We report the following findings. First, classic cars have appreciated at a yearly average nominal (real) rate of 5.63% (3.37%). These returns compare favorably to those of other asset classes, both in absolute terms as on a risk-adjusted basis (Sharpe ratio). From a risk-adjusted perspective, both gold and government bonds showed larger Sharpe ratios, but classic cars outperformed US and global equities even after controlling for risk. The return volatility of classic cars is lower than that of equities but larger than the volatility of bond returns. Second, as few collectors would invest in all types of classic cars because they may face wealth constraints or have outspoken predilections for specific car types of marques, we calculate the financial characteristics of various sub-samples of classic cars. Collectors may indeed desire to specialize in specific production eras, have a preference for certain marques (e.g. Porsches or Ferraris) or cars built in specific countries (e.g. Italian or British cars), limit themselves to purchasing only the top end of the market (blue chip cars) or face wealth constraints (and can only invest in affordable classic cars). The returns of specific niche segments do indeed vary significantly. Strong nominal returns – above 10% annually - are found for blue chip classics, Italian classics, and Ferraris, but these higher
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