Eloping H++ Climate Nge Scenarios for Heat Es, Droughts, Floods, Storms and Cold
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Developing H++ climate change scenarios for heat waves, droughts, floods, windstorms and cold snaps Adaptation Sub-Committee October 2015 2015-10-20_CCRA2_Project_D_Final_Report_v19 - 1 – © Crown copyright 2008 Authors: Steven Wade, Michael Sanderson, Nicola Golding, Jason Lowe and Richard Betts, Met Office Nick Reynard, Alison Kay, Lisa Stewart and Christel Prudhomme, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) Len Shaffrey, Ben Lloyd-Hughes and Ben Harvey, University of Reading Internal reviewers: Simon Brown (Met Office); Helen Hanlon (Met Office) This report has been produced by the Met Office, University of Reading and CEH for the Adaptation Sub-Committee and to support the second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA). Acknowledgements A number of colleagues have provided valuable inputs to the early and final drafts including Sarah Johnson (Met Office), Lizzie Kendon (Met Office), Julia Slingo (Met Office), Kathryn Humphrey (ASC) and Manuela di Mauro (ASC). Prof Brian Hoskins (Imperial College London) and Peter von Lany (Ch2M Hill), provided very useful comments as peer reviewers at the draft stage. In addition, members of the Project Steering Group have provided useful inputs throughout the project: Amanda Charles (GO-Science), Claudette Thompson (Cabinet Office), Edward Foale (Cabinet Office), David Ramsbottom (HR Wallingford), Tracey Dunford (Natural Resources Wales), Zhong Zhang (Natural Resources Wales), Paul Dunhill (Welsh Government), Melanie Harrowsmith (Met Office), Helen Balmforth (Health and Safety Laboratory), Ken Wright (DECC), Mike Thompson (Environment Agency), Zebedee Nii-Naate (Defra), Patrick Cowdy (Welsh Government), Ragne Low (Edinburgh University), Helen Reeves (BGS), Simon Sharpe (FCO), Tim Reeder (Environment Agency), Glenn Watts (Environment Agency), Rosalind West (Defra), Kathryn Humphrey (CCC), Manuela DiMauro (CCC), Daniel Johns (CCC) and Steve Smith (CCC). Contents Summary ....................................................................................................................... iii Guidance on the use of H++ scenarios ....................................................................... iv Summary of H++ scenarios ......................................................................................... v Chapter 1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Project background ................................................................................................ 1 1.2 What is the H++ concept? ...................................................................................... 1 1.3 Guidance on using H++ ......................................................................................... 3 1.4 Approach ............................................................................................................... 5 Chapter 2 Heat waves ................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Summary of the High++ Hot Day and Heat Wave Scenarios ................................. 8 2.2 Historical data ........................................................................................................ 9 2.3 UKCP09 ............................................................................................................... 14 2.5 Physical limits ...................................................................................................... 14 2.4 Other evidence .................................................................................................... 15 2.6 H++ scenarios ...................................................................................................... 16 Chapter 3 Low rainfall ................................................................................................. 21 3.1 Summary of the High ++ low rainfall scenarios .................................................... 21 3.2 Historical data and methods ................................................................................. 22 3.3 UKCP09 ............................................................................................................... 31 3.4 Evidence from CMIP5 climate models ................................................................. 33 3.5 Physical limits ...................................................................................................... 38 3.6 Other evidence .................................................................................................... 39 3.7 Summary of H++ scenarios .................................................................................. 40 Chapter 4 Low flows ................................................................................................... 41 4.1 Summary of the H++ low flow scenarios .............................................................. 41 4.2 Historical data and methods ................................................................................. 42 4.3 UKCP09 ............................................................................................................... 50 4.4 Physical limits ...................................................................................................... 50 4.5. Other evidence ................................................................................................... 50 4.6 H++ scenarios ...................................................................................................... 52 Chapter 5 High rainfall ................................................................................................ 54 5.1 Summary of the High ++ high rainfall scenarios ................................................... 54 5.2 Historical observations ......................................................................................... 55 i | P a g e 5.3 UKCP09 ............................................................................................................... 63 5.4 Evidence from CMIP5 and other climate models .................................................. 67 5.5 Physical limits ...................................................................................................... 70 5.6 Other evidence .................................................................................................... 71 5.7 H++ scenarios ...................................................................................................... 72 Chapter 6 High flows ................................................................................................... 75 6.1 Summary of the High ++ ‘high flow’ scenarios ...................................................... 75 6.2 Background ......................................................................................................... 75 6.3 Approach ............................................................................................................. 76 6.4 Physical limits ...................................................................................................... 78 6.5 Review of other evidence ..................................................................................... 78 6.6. H++ scenarios ..................................................................................................... 82 Chapter 7 Windstorms ................................................................................................ 85 7.1 Summary of the H++ windstorm scenario ............................................................ 85 7.2 Historical data ...................................................................................................... 85 7.3 UKCP09 ............................................................................................................... 89 7.4 Evidence from CMIP5 models .............................................................................. 89 7.5 Physical limits ...................................................................................................... 95 7.6 Summary on Windstorms ..................................................................................... 95 Chapter 8 Cold snaps ................................................................................................. 97 8.1 Summary of L-- cold snap and cold winter scenarios ........................................... 97 8.2 Historical data ...................................................................................................... 98 8.3 UKCP09 ............................................................................................................. 106 8.4 Physical limits .................................................................................................... 107 8.5 Other evidence .................................................................................................. 110 8.6 L-- cold scenarios .............................................................................................. 110 Chapter 9 Other hazards, wildfires and combined events ..................................... 114 9.1 Other hazards .................................................................................................... 114 9.2 Systemic risks .................................................................................................... 114 9.3 Wildfires ............................................................................................................. 115 Chapter 10 References ............................................................................................