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The Social Life of Climate Change Models Routledge Studies in Anthropology The Social Life of Climate Change Models Routledge Studies in Anthropology 1 Student Mobility and Narrative 8 The Social Life of Climate in Europe Change Models The New Strangers Anticipating Nature Elizabeth Murphy-Lejeune Edited by Kirsten Hastrup and Martin Skrydstrup 2 The Question of the Gift Essays across Disciplines Edited by Mark Osteen 3 Decolonising Indigenous Rights Edited by Adolfo de Oliveira 4 Traveling Spirits Migrants, Markets and Mobilities Edited by Gertrud Hüwelmeier and Kristine Krause 5 Anthropologists, Indigenous Scholars and the Research Endeavour Seeking Bridges Towards Mutual Respect Edited by Joy Hendry and Laara Fitznor 6 Confronting Capital Critique and Engagement in Anthropology Edited by Pauline Gardiner Barber, Belinda Leach and Winnie Lem 7 Adolescent Identity Evolutionary, Cultural and Developmental Perspectives Edited by Bonnie L. Hewlett The Social Life of Climate Change Models Anticipating Nature Edited by Kirsten Hastrup and Martin Skrydstrup NEW YORK LONDON First published 2013 by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Simultaneously published in the UK by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2013 Taylor & Francis The right of Kirsten Hastrup and Martin Skrydstrup to be identified as the authors of the editorial material, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The social life of climate change models : anticipating nature / edited by Kirsten Hastrup and Martin Skrydstrup. — 1st ed. p. cm. — (Routledge studies in anthropology ; 8) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Climatic changes—Forecasting. 2. Ethnology. 3. Anthropology. I. Hastrup, Kirsten. II. Skrydstrup, Martin. QC902.9.S63 2012 551.601'1—dc23 2012013623 ISBN13: 978-0-415-62858-7 (hbk) ISBN13: 978-0-203-09387-0 (ebk) Typeset in Sabon by IBT Global. Printed and bound in the United States of America on sustainably sourced paper by IBT Global. Contents List of Figures vii Preface and Acknowledgements ix 1 Anticipating Nature: The Productive Uncertainty of Climate Models 1 KIRSTEN HASTRUP 2 How Climate Models Gain and Exercise Authority 30 MIKE HULME 3 Certain Figures: Modelling Nature among Environmental Experts in Coastal Tamil Nadu 45 FRIDA HASTRUP 4 Enacting Cyclones: The Mixed Response to Climate Change in the Cook Islands 57 CECILIE RUBOW 5 Anticipation on Thin Ice: Diagrammatic Reasoning in the High Arctic 77 KIRSTEN HASTRUP 6 Deciding the Future in the Land of Snow: Tibet as an Arena for Confl icting Forms of Knowledge and Policy 100 HILDEGARD DIEMBERGER 7 Scaling Climate: The Politics of Anticipation 128 ÁSDÍS JÓNSDÓTTIR vi Contents 8 Emancipating Nature: What the Flood Apprentice Learned from a Modelling Tutorial 144 ANDERS KRISTIAN MUNK 9 Modelling Ice: A Field Diary of Anticipation on the Greenland Ice Sheet 163 MARTIN SKRYDSTRUP 10 Predictability in Question: On Climate Modelling in Physics 183 PETER D. DITLEVSEN 11 Constructing Evidence and Trust: How Did Climate Scientists’ Confi dence in Their Models and Simulations Emerge? 203 MATTHIAS HEYMANN 12 Afterword: Reopening the Book of Nature(s) 225 MARTIN SKRYDSTRUP Contributors 231 Index 235 Figures 5.1 Three hunters dragging a walrus up onto the ice. 85 5.2 Three-dimensional wooden maps from the east coast of Greenland. 86 5.3 Map of coastline between Etah and the Humboldt Glacier. Drawn by unnamed hunter of the Thule District, 1903. 87 5.4 Map of coastline from Etah and the Humboldt Glacier. From the Diary of Knud Rasmussen, Second Thule Expedition, 1917. 89 6.1 Yak herd grazing in Porong. 106 6.2a Photograph of overshooting cumulus-nimbus above Mt Nyanchen Thanglha. 108 6.2b1 Development of convection and clouds, Tibet: image. 109 6.2b2 Development of convection and clouds, Tibet: graphs. 110 6.3 Tibetan document listing the Porong pastures. 115 6.4 Chokyi Dronma as depicted in a mural painting in Nyemo, Central Tibet. 117 8.1 Field notes. Water on the ground—conductivity, saturation, drainage, and overland fl ow. 148 8.2 Screenshot from HEC-RAS (the Hydraulic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System). 149 8.3 Cross-section data. The left bank station is highlighted at 21.15 ft elevation, which is the height at which the fl ow of water becomes “fl ooding”. 152 8.4 Flow hydrograph with discharge as fl ow in ft3/s (Q=A∙V) shown on the vertical axis. 154 9.1 The Swiss constructor of the sonar device Dr Jakob Schwander in the sub-surface drilling trench ready to send the “pinger” down the borehole towards the abyss. 171 10.1 Temperature models 1900–2000, reproduced from the IPCC report (2007) with permission. 192 11.1 Estimates of past and future global average temperature variations. 206 viii Figures 11.2 Estimates of past and future temperature variations. 207 11.3 Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with and without cloudiness according to model simulations (dotted), and the U.S. Standard Atmosphere based on observations (straight line). 210 11.4 Parameterization of cloudiness (left) and observed cloudiness (right) in latitude zones. 214 11.5 Increased temperatures in the stratosphere (above) and decreased temperatures in the troposphere (below) after the eruption of Mt Agung, Indonesia. 215 11.6 Validation experiments of Hansen’s one-dimensional climate model with the inclusion of various drivers (CO2, volcanoes, and solar radiation) and a simplifi ed (left) and explicit ocean model (right). 216 Preface and Acknowledgements This volume is the outcome of an interdisciplinary workshop that truly deserved its name. Anthropology, geography, and theoretical physics mixed with science and technology studies and the history of science. The refl exive space between the disciplines proved to be a major resource for a rethinking of nature itself. Analyzing climate modelling as a practice by which people across the globe seek to anticipate nature’s course, so as to be able to respond properly to the current challenges of global warming, the chapters below show a rare degree of self-refl ection. This allows for an important recognition that whether one engages with lay people or with scientists, the modes of reasoning are comparable and may lead towards similar goals. Arctic hunters, Tibetan pastoralists, Pacifi c fi shermen and other people engaged in forecasting the future on the ground share the wish to understand what is happening to their environment with climate scientists working in the same vein, if from a diff erent perspective. As social agents they all attempt at defusing the major uncertainties with which the increasing numbers of people on the Earth are faced. People are placed dif- ferently in the world, and have diff erent experiences upon which to act, but they have a common interest in establishing some sort of certainty vis-à-vis the waves of fear that follow from the process of global warming—quite irrespective of its root causes. The chapters below are revised versions of presentations to the work- shop; an additional paper was given by Myannah Lahsen, which unfortu- nately could not be included because it was spoken for in another context. Other participants in the workshop were Anette Reenberg, Frank Sejersen, Bruce Huett, Jonas Østergaard Nielsen, Laura Vang Rasmussen, Mette Fog Olwig, Astrid Andersen, and Christian Vium. Their genuine contribu- tions to the conversation are gratefully acknowledged. Rasmus Hastrup is thanked for his help in streamlining the draft, linguistically and typo- graphically. Henny Pedersen was in charge of the practical and economic organization of the event, which was carried out with her usual skill and commitment to the task. The larger context of the workshop was a major research project at the University of Copenhagen, Waterworlds, fi nanced by an Advanced Grant x Preface and Acknowledgements from the European Research Council, and studying the social responses to environmental challenges across the globe, which are more or less explicitly tied up with climate change in the minds of most. As the privileged holder of that grant, and on behalf of the entire group that works under its aus- pices, I want to acknowledge the debt to the ERC. The grant made new fi eld studies possible as well as a series of workshops and conferences, which have enabled us to discuss our fi ndings within a larger international com- munity of scholars. Finally, I want to thank Martin Skrydstrup for his fi ne job as a co-reader when the fi rst drafts came in. Beside the editorial work we shared the enthusiasm of discovering a remarkably coherent result of our interdisciplinary exercise: a shared understanding of the deeply social implications of climate change models. Kirsten Hastrup February 2012 1 Anticipating Nature The Productive Uncertainty of Climate Models Kirsten Hastrup The present volume addresses the profound question of how one can anticipate nature’s course, scientifi cally and practically; the question is answered from the points of view of several academic disciplines: anthropology, geography, science and technology studies, physics, and the history of science, brought together by a shared ambition to open up a new space for interdisciplinary discussion. This ambition is spurred by the intensifi ed discussion of climate change and the need to rethink the entanglement of natural and social pro- cesses contained within the fi gure of “climate”.
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