Nº 4 FEBRUARY 2012
Regional implications of NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan: What role for the EU?
Clare Castillejo
The US and NATO may have a date to leave Afghanistan, but they still lack a realistic exit strategy. There is no credible plan for a political and security transition within the Highlights country. It is difficult to believe that the weak Kabul government will be able to provide security or hold the Taliban at bay. Moreover, there is no meaningful strategy to embed the 2014 • Western actors have not draw-down within the complex power dynamics of the region. engaged sufficiently with the A sustainable solution for Afghanistan requires a negotiated regional power dynamics that political settlement that is backed by regional powers. will determine Afghanistan’s future. Although Afghanistan’s internal politics will be crucial, its neighbours will significantly shape the country’s future • The conflicting interests of following NATO’s departure. Moreover, developments in Afghanistan’s neighbours need Afghanistan will have profound implications for security in its neighbourhood. Despite this, the US and its EU allies to be resolved in order to build have so far failed effectively to situate their goal of stabilising a sustainable peace. Afghanistan within the broader dynamics of the region. To do so requires identifying the interests of the different regional • The EU must consider actors in Afghanistan and the incentives that could encourage how it can help promote a them to support an Afghan peace deal, as well as understanding regionally backed settlement how failure in Afghanistan may affect regional stability. for Afghanistan.
Afghanistan’s neighbourhood is both highly volatile and critical for global security. It poses a number of interrelated threats, including terrorism, drug trafficking, nuclear proliferation and long standing national, ethnic and sectarian conflicts. Regional implications of NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan: What role for the EU?
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Europe’s security is therefore at stake in the dominate policy making. The overall goal Afghanistan endgame. However, the EU so of Pakistan’s military is to ensure that pro- far lacks a joined up and strategic response to Pakistani militant groups gain power in post- Afghanistan’s neighbourhood. Europe needs NATO Afghanistan. Pakistan is concerned to adopt a more nuanced regional lens on at growing Indian influence in Kabul and Afghanistan and consider what role it could sees a friendly Afghanistan as necessary for play in promoting a regional solution. its security in the region.
Beyond the ‘India threat’, there are other Converging and Pakistani interests at stake in Afghanistan. conflicting interests The Pakistani military’s support for militants in Afghanistan has created space for militancy Given Afghanistan’s strategic location and in Pakistan’s border areas, from where an potential to undermine regional security insurgency has spread across the country. and prosperity, all its neighbours share a A political settlement in Afghanistan that common interest in the emergence of a stable enables Afghan militants based in Pakistan Afghan state. However, they have varying, to go home and reduces militant activity and in some cases profoundly conflicting, on both sides of the border would greatly interests regarding the nature of this state. improve Pakistan’s prospects of defeating If these conflicting interests are not resolved its internal insurgency. Moreover, Pakistan’s they could undermine the stability that all economy is in bad shape and an improved Afghanistan’s neighbours require. security situation and stable border with Afghanistan could facilitate trade and The country whose future is most intimately growth. These are compelling reasons for tied to that of Afghanistan is Pakistan. Pakistan to support stability in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s powerful military has consistently However, given the Pakistani military’s supported the Quetta-Shura Taliban, the obsession with India, it is likely to prioritise Haqqani network and other militants in a client Afghan state over a stable one. Afghanistan, as well as sought to derail any peace negotiations which exclude Pakistan. India also sees Afghanistan through the lens Pakistan has simultaneously accepted of its conflict with Pakistan. India has histori- huge quantities of US military aid to fight cally had excellent relations with Afghanistan, militancy, a double handed position that apart from during the rule of the Taliban who is becoming increasingly untenable as US were deeply hostile to India. India has rebuilt frustration grows. its influence in the country since 2001. It has given approximately $2 billion in aid to Ka- Pakistan’s spoiler role in Afghanistan must bul, making it the largest regional donor. In be understood within the context of its October 2011 India and Afghanistan devel- conflict with India and sense of regional oped a strategic partnership agreement. This insecurity, as well as the civil-military gives India a role in training Afghan security imbalance which allows the military to forces, much to Pakistan’s concern. There are AGORA ASIA-EUROPE Nº 4 - FEBRUARY 2012
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suggestions that New Delhi and Kabul are Iran’s influence in Afghanistan has increased also collaborating clandestinely to support since the fall of the Taliban. Iran provides Baloch insurgents within Pakistan. India’s political support to the Karzai government main interests are to counterbalance Pakistani while apparently also supporting elements of influence in Afghanistan and prevent the re- the Taliban in order to undermine the US turn of a Taliban regime that would provide mission. Iran wants to see foreign forces leave a haven for jihadi militants. Since 2001 trade Afghanistan and shares China’s concerns between India and Afghanistan has increased regarding any permanent US base. However, dramatically and a stable it does not want an unstable Afghanistan Afghanistan could pro- or the return of the Taliban. Iran’s main There is vide India with trade and interests are to control drug trafficking from energy access to Cen- Afghanistan; increase its access to markets no meaningful tral Asia. in Afghanistan and Central Asia; and use strategy to Afghanistan as a route to transport energy to China’s engagement with China. Iran would not like Afghanistan to embed the 2014 Afghanistan is primar- be entirely controlled by Pakistan. ily economic. Beijing is draw-down the biggest foreign direct Moscow understands that an unstable within the investor in Afghanistan, Afghanistan will compromise its own security. with major investments Russia’s interests are overwhelmingly in a complex power in mining and com- secure and moderate Afghanistan that will munications. China has not destabilise Central Asia or spread Islamist dynamics of avoided any direct in- extremism. However, Russia shares China the region volvement in Afghani- and Iran’s concerns regarding permanent US stan’s security or do- bases. Russia is seeking closer security ties mestic politics, fearing with the EU and greater influence in Euro- this would make it a target for Islamist ter- Atlantic and Eurasian security cooperation. rorism. However, as a close ally of Pakistan, It sees cooperation with the west over China must be assumed to have some indi- Afghanistan as an opportunity to strengthen rect influence over security in Afghanistan. these ties. Given its economic investments and con- cern about the spread of Islamic militancy, The Central Asian states have little influence China’s interest is overwhelming for a stable over developments in Afghanistan. However, and moderate Afghanistan. However, there their security could be threatened by greater is a danger that China’s extractive form of instability in the country, in particular investment may work against Afghanistan’s through the spread of radicalism and drug development. It could instead shore up elites trafficking. Given their porous borders and and increase inequality. China’s deep opposi- substantial ethnic minorities in Afghanistan, tion to permanent US bases in Afghanistan Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are particularly is a stumbling block to its engagement with vulnerable to negative spill-over from international actors on Afghanistan’s future. conflict in Afghanistan. Regional implications of NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan: What role for the EU?
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The need for a regionally concrete progress. This is partly because supported settlement of differences between the approach of western actors and regional powers, as It is widely accepted that conflict in well as the divisions among regional Afghanistan can only be ended through a powers themselves. The next international negotiated peace settlement that includes conference on Afghanistan, planned the Taliban. Both the US and the Karzai for 2013 in Tokyo, seems unlikely to government have made efforts to broker overcome these problems. In addition to such a settlement, but with little progress. these formal processes, the US and some The government’s attempts to reach out to EU member states are engaged in intense the Taliban were disrupted in September diplomatic dialogue with Afghanistan’s 2011 by the killing of its chief negotiator, neighbours on the future of the country. ex-President Rabbani, apparently on However, at the moment there is little the orders of Pakistan’s security services sign that a regionally owned solution for who did not appreciate being excluded Afghanistan is going to emerge in time from negotiations. Both Qatar and Saudi for the 2014 withdrawal. If NATO leaves Arabia are now apparently playing a role Afghanistan without a regionally backed in reinitiating dialogue. However, it is settlement in place the stability of the not clear if the Taliban is interested in whole region will be in jeopardy. negotiating, with NATO’s withdrawal so closely in sight. Without a regionally backed settlement the greatest danger is of a proxy war As Rabbani’s killing demonstrates, any in Afghanistan, with regional powers settlement that excludes regional powers backing different ethnic or sectarian or undermines their interests is doomed factions in pursuit of their own interests. to fail. What is needed is a political Such a conflict would be dominated by settlement between Afghanistan’s main the struggle between India and Pakistan actors that is actively supported by for control of Afghanistan. However it regional powers. This requires that both is possible that Iran and Russia would national and regional actors play a role collaborate with India to support anti- in negotiations. It also requires finding Taliban actors, while Saudi Arabia may a compromise between the competing support Pashtun groups in alliance with interests of Afghanistan’s neighbours. Pakistan. Given the tensions between these neighbours, this will be an extremely Such a conflict would not only be difficult task. devastating for Afghanistan, but would have serious implications for regional The Istanbul and Bonn processes were security and prosperity. It would intended to build international and regio- dangerously heighten tensions between nal cooperation concerning Afghanistan. India and Pakistan. It could also increase However, these have not resulted in any ethnic and sectarian violence across AGORA ASIA-EUROPE Nº 4 - FEBRUARY 2012
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the region, given that proxy groups in EU engagement Afghanistan are defined along ethnic and sectarian identities. Moreover, The EU has invested heavily in Afghanistan. such a regionally sponsored conflict in EU civilian assistance to the country is Afghanistan would block any progress approximately €1 billion per year; the towards regional agreement on key issues EUPOL mission has been in place since such as nuclear proliferation, water 2007 to strengthen the Afghan police sharing, energy and trade. force and the rule of law; and EU member states have contributed extensively to A stable Afghanistan could provide an the NATO military mission. However, important trade route for India, Pakistan this investment (like that of the US) has and China to reach Central Asian markets, not significantly improved Afghanistan’s as well as for Central Asian and Iranian governance, development or security energy to reach China and South Asia. The situation. This failure is not only due to development of such trade routes could ineffective western strategies or corruption increase prosperity across the region and within the Afghan government. It is also enhance regional stability. Conversely, an because Afghanistan’s neighbours have increase in conflict in Afghanistan would undermined progress. have serious economic consequences for the region. It would block prospects for Given that the Afghanistan endgame is increased trade, prevent international controlled by Asian powers, the US will actors from providing development have limited influence on the outcome assistance and threaten China and India’s and the EU even less. The challenge for the investments in Afghanistan. It could also EU is that, while it has minimal influence precipitate another mass flow of Afghan within Afghanistan’s neighbourhood, that refugees into neighbouring countries, neighbourhood’s future is vitally important with serious economic and security costs. for European security. This means the EU must continue to search for modest ways in Of greatest concern to the international which it can promote regional support for community is that Afghanistan’s collapse a viable negotiated peace in Afghanistan. into civil war or return to Taliban rule The EU must use quiet diplomacy, would again make it a haven for jihadi mediation and targeted support to key terrorism. These concerns are reflected actors within Afghanistan and the region within the region. India is particularly to help foster such agreement. worried about the prospect of a Taliban return, given that the last Taliban The EU institutions have so far failed to take government supported terrorist activities up this challenge. While Brussels provides against India. China and Russia would assistance to Kabul, it has not developed also be concerned at an Afghanistan that any strategic approach to promote a provides even more space for international regional solution to the conflict. Its role terrorist networks. has primarily been as an aid donor, with Regional implications of NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan: What role for the EU?
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limited political engagement. However, Pakistan and could potentially use this this is beginning to change. Recognising position to wield greater political influence. the importance of Pakistan’s future to Although an EU waiver on tariffs for European security, the EU increased its Pakistan was recently approved, Pakistan aid to Pakistan by 50 per cent from 2011- is desperate for a free trade agreement 2013 and in February 2012 signed a 5 year (FTA). The offer of rapid progress on a engagement plan with the country. The FTA could perhaps provide incentives EU is strengthening political dialogue with for improved regional cooperation by India and the issue of regional cooperation Islamabad. Through support to regional on Afghanistan featured in the February trade cooperation initiatives the EU could 2012 India-EU summit. also possibly help strengthen economic links and ease tensions between India, At present, the EU pursues separate Pakistan and Afghanistan. Of course, in policy initiatives in different parts of the these tough economic times, Brussels’ region with limited inter-linkages. For trade dialogue with India is inevitably example, the EU’s security assistance more focused on Europe’s economic needs in the region has been piecemeal and and finalising the drawn out EU-India mostly has not addressed the regional FTA negotiations than on the security aspects of insecurity, apart from one challenges of South Asia. initiative under the Instrument for Stability to support increased civilian anti-terrorism cooperation between Priorities Pakistan and Afghanistan. Likewise, while the EU provides support to democratic The EU must make every effort to institutions and civil society across the encourage Pakistan to give up its spoiler region, this support could be better joined role in Afghanistan. This requires reducing up. In particular the EU could help link Pakistan’s sense of external insecurity and progressive actors from Afghanistan, encouraging Pakistan and India bilaterally Pakistan, Iran and India in dialogue on to resolve some of the outstanding tensions the future of Afghanistan and the region. between them. It also means encouraging In contrast, the US recently launched India to step back from more provocative its New Silk Road initiative, which aspects of engagement with Kabul. aims to strengthen regional linkages through region-wide infrastructure and The EU should also encourage Pakistan other projects. However, this initiative and Afghanistan to work together to lacks funding and remains a somewhat address their differences and reduce imprecise vision. suspicion. This includes addressing their long running border dispute and agreeing The EU’s greatest leverage in this region on how the border can best be managed. is arguably through trade. The EU is the It could also involve working jointly largest trade partner of both India and to address the anxieties of the Pashtun AGORA ASIA-EUROPE Nº 4 - FEBRUARY 2012
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community – who make up the bulk of important that growing tension over Iran’s Afghan and Pakistani insurgents – on nuclear programme does not completely both sides of the border. As a major donor close the door to EU engagement with to both countries the EU can support Iran on the future of Afghanistan – even if governance reforms, institution building this looks a remote prospect in the current and development initiatives that address climate. the grievances of Pashtun populations. Clare Castillejo is a senior researcher at FRIDE. It is difficult to imagine that the EU could wield any influence with the Chinese government regarding its role in Afghanistan. However, it should certainly raise the issue of Afghanistan and related regional security challenges as part of its political dialogue with China. Disappointingly it appears that Afghanistan was not discussed during the latest EU-China summit on 14 February 2012. The EU should provide technical support to Afghan authorities to help ensure that contracts with Chinese investors provide the best deal for Afghanistan; more transparent governance would also temper growing Chinese unease over investment conditions in the country.
The EU must seek opportunities to draw Iran into international dialogue on Afghanistan. Iran’s interest in regional level engagement can be seen in President Ahmadinejad’s participation in three way discussions on regional security and trade issues with Afghan and Pakistani leaders in February 2012. Despite deteriorating relations between the EU and Iran, the two share some interests in relation to Afghanistan. Both want to avoid the return of the Taliban, would like to curb drug e-mail: [email protected] trafficking and want to see the Afghan www.fride.org economy and trade routes developed. It is I SS N : 2 2 5 4 - 0 4 8 2