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Regional Power Politics: the Behavior and Motivations of Regional Powers in Settings of Conflict and Coalition Cagla Mavruk Cavlak Wayne State University

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Regional Power Politics: the Behavior and Motivations of Regional Powers in Settings of Conflict and Coalition Cagla Mavruk Cavlak Wayne State University Wayne State University Wayne State University Dissertations 1-1-2017 Regional Power Politics: The Behavior And Motivations Of Regional Powers In Settings Of Conflict And Coalition Cagla Mavruk Cavlak Wayne State University, Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.wayne.edu/oa_dissertations Part of the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Mavruk Cavlak, Cagla, "Regional Power Politics: The Behavior And Motivations Of Regional Powers In Settings Of Conflict And Coalition" (2017). Wayne State University Dissertations. 1843. https://digitalcommons.wayne.edu/oa_dissertations/1843 This Open Access Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by DigitalCommons@WayneState. It has been accepted for inclusion in Wayne State University Dissertations by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@WayneState. REGIONAL POWER POLITICS: THE BEHAVIOR AND MOTIVATIONS OF REGIONAL POWERS IN SETTINGS OF CONFLICT AND COALITION by CAGLA MAVRUK CAVLAK DISSERTATION Submitted to the Graduate School of Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY 2017 MAJOR: POLITICAL SCIENCE Approved By: ______________________________________ Advisor Date ______________________________________ ______________________________________ _______________________________________ _______________________________________ © COPYRIGHT BY CAGLA MAVRUK CAVLAK 2017 All Rights Reserved DEDICATION I dedicate this work to my son, Cagan, for all the times you asked for me when I could not spend time with you. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank all the people who have provided personal and professional guidance throughout the research process and made completion of this doctoral dissertation possible with their support. Foremost, I want to thank my amazing son Cagan, who was born at the very begin- ning of my PhD study and has been such a great boy and my best friend throughout this journey. He has been my motivation and inspiration during the past few years. Without him, my degree would have been far less meaningful. Thanks also to my loving husband, Engin, who patiently took care of our little son and allowed me to focus on my study. I would have not made it through without his patience and support. I am also extremely grateful to my parents, Tulay and Husamettin Mavruk, my sister, Gizem and my brother, Ali Haydar for their encouragement for all of these years. I cannot describe the sacrifices made by my mother and my father. So much of my success is possible because of their endless love and support. I owe my deepest gratitude to my dissertation advisor, Dr. Frederic Pearson for his pa- tience, guidance, and support from the beginning to the final level. He set an example of excellence as a researcher, mentor, and instructor. His ideas, recommendations and instructions shaped this research, and without his help and encouragement, this dissertation would not have been written. In addition to my advisor, I would like to thank the rest of my dissertation committee, Dr. Nadejda Marinova, Dr. David Merolla, and Dr. Yumin Sheng, for their support and feedback throughout this process. Also, I appreciated Dr. Merolla’s invaluable advice and assistance on the statistical analyses. His contributions to the dissertation were invaluable. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Dedication ___________________________________________________________________ ii Acknowledgments_____________________________________________________________ iii List of Tables _______________________________________________________________ vii List of Figures _______________________________________________________________ viii Chapter 1: Introduction _________________________________________________________ 1 Overview of the Literature ____________________________________________________ 2 What is Missing in the Literature? _____________________________________________ 10 Theoretical Framework ______________________________________________________ 11 Key Concepts _____________________________________________________________ 14 Layout of the Dissertation ____________________________________________________ 24 Chapter 2: Research Design ____________________________________________________ 27 Propositions _______________________________________________________________ 28 Methodology Model ________________________________________________________ 32 Case Study Method and Case Selection _________________________________________ 34 Operationalizing Variables in Statistical Analysis and Dataset _______________________ 37 Conclusion ________________________________________________________________ 40 Chapter 3: Regional Powers and Regional Structures in the Post-Cold War Era ____________ 41 Determining Regional Powers ________________________________________________ 41 Regional Structures _________________________________________________________ 43 An Overview of Regional Dynamics in Post-Cold War Era __________________________ 45 Conclusion ________________________________________________________________ 65 iv Chapter 4: Results and Analysis _________________________________________________ 66 Conclusion ________________________________________________________________ 81 Chapter 5: Selected Case Studies of Regional Hegemons and Regional Great Powers _______ 83 Regional Hegemons ________________________________________________________ 83 Brazil’s Hegemony in South America _________________________________________ 83 South Africa’s Hegemony in Southern Africa __________________________________ 89 India’s Hegemony in South Asia _____________________________________________ 96 A Comparison of Regional Hegemons: Brazil, South Africa and India ______________ 104 Regional Great Powers _____________________________________________________ 115 Germany in Europe ______________________________________________________ 116 Iran in the Middle East and North Africa _____________________________________ 120 A Comparison of Regional Great Powers: Germany and Iran _____________________ 125 Conclusion _______________________________________________________________ 131 Chapter 6: Conclusion________________________________________________________ 132 Summary of the Study ______________________________________________________ 132 Summary of Findings ______________________________________________________ 133 The Aggregate Data Analysis ______________________________________________ 133 The Cases: Brazil, South Africa, and India as Regional Hegemons _________________ 134 The Cases: Germany and Iran as Regional Great Powers _________________________ 137 A Discussion on the Global and Regional Hegemonic Strategies ____________________ 138 v Conclusions ______________________________________________________________ 150 Agenda for Future Research _________________________________________________ 152 References _________________________________________________________________ 155 Abstract ___________________________________________________________________ 177 Autobiographical Statement ___________________________________________________ 179 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1. Memberships in Regions, 2010 ................................................................................... 21 Table 2.1. Suggested Typology of Regional Powers .................................................................... 33 Table 2.2. Cases Selected for Analysis ......................................................................................... 36 Table 3.1. Types of Regional Powers in Regional Hierarchies .................................................... 42 Table 3.2. International Structure ................................................................................................. 45 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1. Relative National Power Capabilities in North America ........................................... 47 Figure 3.2. Regional Shares of Hard Power Sources in North America....................................... 48 Figure 3.3. Relative National Power Capabilities in South America ........................................... 49 Figure 3.4. Regional Shares of Hard Power Sources in South America....................................... 49 Figure 3.5. Relative National Power Capabilities in Europe ........................................................ 51 Figure 3.6. Regional Shares of Hard Power Sources in Europe ................................................... 51 Figure 3.7. Relative National Power Capabilities in Central Eurasia ........................................... 52 Figure 3.8. Regional Shares of Hard Power Sources in Central Eurasia ...................................... 52 Figure 3.9. Relative National Power Capabilities in West Africa ................................................ 55 Figure 3.10. Regional Shares of Hard Power Sources in West Africa ......................................... 54 Figure 3.11. Relative National Power Capabilities in Southern Africa ........................................ 55 Figure 3.12. Regional Shares of Hard Power Sources in Southern Africa ................................... 56 Figure 3.13. Relative National Power Capabilities in MENA ...................................................... 57 Figure 3.14. Regional Shares of Hard Power Sources in MENA ................................................. 57 Figure 3.15. Relative National Power Capabilities in South Asia ................................................ 58 Figure 3.16. Regional Shares of Hard Power Sources in South Asia ..........................................
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