Montreal Economist to Protect Tom Brady Vincent Brousseau-Pouliot La Presse

Montreal economist to protect Tom Brady Vincent Brousseau-Pouliot La Presse

Caption: The Montreal economist Jimmy Royer was one of the experts accompanying Tom Brady in the courtroom, on June 23rd, when the parties were heard by Judge Richard Berman.

This fall, economist Jimmy Royer no longer watches the New England Patriots' matches with the same eye.

The Vice-President for Analysis Group, a Boston-based firm with an office in Montreal, has always been an American football fan. But something was different this year: he spent some of the summer months analyzing the Wells' Report on the ''Deflategate'' crisis for Tom Brady and the National Football League Players Association (NFLPA). "Since I am a big fan of football, I was happy to take up this mandate,'' says Jimmy Royer. ''And it is very rewarding to work with a star player as Tom Brady.''

The Montreal economist was one of the experts accompanying Tom Brady in the courtroom, on June 23rd, when the parties have been heard by Judge Richard Berman. Half a dozen people composed the Brady clan on that day: his lawyers, his agent, Edward Snyder, the Dean of the Faculty of Management at Yale, as well as the economists of Analysis Group who filed a report contradicting the statistical conclusions drawn in the report commissioned by the NFL about the pressure difference found on the Patriots' footballs.

''After testimony, Tom Brady thanked the team with great enthusiasm. He was very kind and took a keen interest in everything that occurred in the courtroom, even if there were sometimes quite dry topics,'' says the 41-year old economist, who holds a Doctorate in Economy from the Laval University.

A specific expertise

It is the Director of Analysis Group, Royer's employer, who had the idea of contacting the Players Association' lawyer, after having analyzed Ted Wells' report, which the NFL has taken as a basis to suspend the Patriots' quarterback. ''A colleague from Boston called me and told me: Have a look at this report. I believe there are some problems in there,'' Jimmy Royer added.

In the past, as a specialist in statistical analyses applied to economy, Royer had already worked for Samsung, in its proceedings against Apple. He had also took part in the defense of two former Bear Stearns fund managers, facing criminal charges in the wake of the financial crisis - they were acquitted.

And then came the Brady file. ''The statistical analysis [of the Wells' Report] seemed rather weak to us,'' he says.

While it is true that the Patriots' footballs were inferior to the limit of 12,5 pounds per square inch (PSI), at halftime of the much-discussed playoffs match against the Indianapolis Colts, such a pressure deviation may be explained by several statistical reasons, according to Jimmy Royer. ''In our report, we demonstrate that the pressure differentials measured on the Patriots' balls are consistent with the pressure deviations noticed in the Colts' balls, if we take the time of measurement of the footballs into account,'' he claims.

Temperature deviance The main reason for this difference: the balls were not measured by the officials at the same moment of the halftime. ''There was a very significant factor that was not considered in the Wells' Report: the temperature deviance between the field (40°F or 4°C) and the locker rooms (70°F or 21°C), Jimmy Royer points out. The balls' pressure may drop as a result of temperature changes. The referees have measured the 11 Patriots balls at the beginning of the halftime, when they were cold and damp, and then the Colts' balls at the end of the halftime, when they were warmer. They re-inflated the 11 Pats' balls to 12,5 pounds per square inch (PSI), but they didn't have enough time to measure all the Colts' balls [they only measured 4 balls out of 13].

Incidentally, the Patriots' balls were exposed to bad weather for a longer time during the first half of the game. ''Humidity also has the effect of causing the pressure to drop, since water takes up the heat that exist inside the ball. The Pats had the ball for a longer time during the first half of the game [on the whole match, the Patriots have had the ball for almost 38 minutes, while the Colts had the ball for only 22 minutes],'' adds Jimmy Royer.

Finally, in early September, Judge Richard Berman repealed Tom Brady's 4-match suspension, essentially for legal reasons (see Note 1), and not in reaction to the statistical evidence presented by Analysis Group. Judge Berman decided not to pronounce on the merits of that matter.

During the court session, the Dean of the Yale University Faculty of Management, economist Edward Snyder, testified to explain the conclusions of the report filed by Analysis Group, a Boston-based firm with an office in Montreal. The team led by Jimmy Royer counted two other economists who have links with the city of Montreal: Paul Greenberg, himself a true Montrealer and Pierre Crémieux, a former UQAM University professor, both now working for the Boston office of Analysis Group.

This is not the first media-covered mandate for Jimmy Royer. But he never had to work on such a highly-publicized story, and never for a client that he used to watch on television almost every Sunday afternoon. ''This is one of the most interesting mandates I had in my whole career,'' says Jimmy Royer.

___ Note 1: In summary, Judge Berman has repealed Tom Brady's suspension, on the grounds of the way the NFL has led its disciplinary process, because most of the documents invoked to suspend Tom Brady had not been negotiated with the Players' Association in the scope of the collective agreement, and because Tom Brady had not the opportunity to question the NFL Chief-Counsel who published the Wells Report.