The Impact of the Development of the Countries of Central and Eastern Europe on the Community Territory
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······ European Union ···?■ ►··· *S*f Regional Policy #:: 2«: and Cohesion • · •••ï -.-.» *·*! ····" ····' ···· ····*·' ······' :::::: •••••ï ::··::: •ζ·!·?' •••••i ·2·•••ϊI Regional development stud of,the cc^Yries^Centr ' " . and f^ternj^ope-J 1 ^Ξ. - J« ^SJS ft ' " // *>v ■ τ —*π ϊ&* E&fopean Commission ft' European Union Regional Policy and Cohesion Regional development studles The impact of the development of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe on the Community territory European Commission Already published in the series Regional development studies 01 — Demographic evolution in European regions (Demeter 2015) 02 — Socioeconomic situation and development of the regions in the neighbouring countries of the Community in Central and Eastern Europe 03 — Les politiques régionales dans l'opinion publique 04 — Urbanization and the functions of cities in the European Community 05 — The economic and social impact of reductions in defence spending and military forces on the regions of the Community 06 — New location factors for mobile investment in Europe 07 — Trade and foreign investment In the Community regions: the impact of economic reform in Central and Eastern Europe 08 — Estudio prospectivo de las regiones atlánticas — Europa 2000 Study of prospects in the Atlantic regions — Europe 2000 Étude prospective des régions atlantiques — Europe 2000 09 — Financial engineering techniques applying to regions eligible under Objectives 1, 2 and 5b 10 — Interregional and cross-border cooperation In Europe 11 — Estudio prospectivo de las reglones del Mediterráneo Oeste Évolution prospective des régions de la Méditerranée - Ouest Evoluzione delle prospettive delle regioni del Mediterraneo occidentale 12 — Valeur ajoutée et ingénierie du développement local 13 — The Nordic countries — what impact on planning and development in the Union ? 14 — Development prospects of the central Mediterranean regions (Mezzogiorno-Greece) 15 — The spatial consequences of the integration of the new German Länder into the Community 16 — The Impact of the development of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe on the Community territory 17 — Étude prospective des régions de l'arc alpin et pérlalpin Studio delle prospettive delle regioni dell'arco alpino e pedalpino 18 — The prospective development of the northern seaboard 20 — Evolución prospectiva de las regiones interiores (y de los espacios rurales de baja densidad de población en la Comunidad) Évolution prospective des régions intérieures (et des espaces ruraux de faible densité de population de la Communauté) 22 — The perspective development of the central and capital cities and regions 23 — La notoriété des politiques régionales en Europe 24 — Cohesion and the development challenge facing the lagging regions 25 — In den Regionen für die Regionen Europas — Über die Aneignung eines neuen gewerk• schaftlichen Arbeitsfeldes At regional level on behalf of Europe's regions — Developing a new field of trade union activity Forthcoming publications in this series 19 — L'impact sur le développement régional et l'aménagement de l'espace communautaire des pays du Sud et de l'Est méditerranéens (PSEM) 21 — The regional impact of the Channel Tunnel throughout the Community Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 1996 ISBN 92-826-8802-X © ECSC-EC-EAEC, Brussels · Luxembourg, 1996 Reproduction is authorized, except for commercial purposes, provided the source is acknowledged Printed in Germany Preface Each year, the European Commission's Directorate-General for Regional Policy and Cohesion launches a number of studies in the field of regional policy and regional planning. These studies mainly aim at providing a basis for policy formulation internally, as well as the preparation of programmes and initiatives and a basis for analysing the impact of current or planned activities. The most interesting or innovative of these are published in a series entitled Regional development studies. With this series, the Directorate-General hopes to stimulate discussion and action in a wider sphere on the research results received. The publication of the studies is addressed to politicians and decision-makers at European, regional and local level, as well as to academics and experts in the broad fields of issues covered. It Is hoped, that by publicizing research results, the Commission will enrich and stimulate public debate and promote a further exchange of knowledge and opinions on the issues which are considered important for the economic and social cohesion of the Union and therefore for the future of Europe. Readers should bear in mind that the study reports do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Commission but first and foremost express the opinion of those responsible for carrying out the study. Contents Page 1. Introduction 11 2. Reform processes and spatial development in Central and Eastern Europe 19 2.1. Path of transition in Central and Eastern Europe — Between instability and slow progress ... 20 Present economic situation 20 Foreign trade 21 Trade balance and foreign debt , 23 Structural crisis 23 Progress on the path of reform 24 Foreign investment 26 2.2. Spatial dimension of the structural crisis 26 Problem regions with predominantly agrarian structures 26 Monostructural industrial regions 30 Prospering sectors and spatial impact 33 Regional unemployment 38 2.3. Regional disparities in infrastructure and in standards of living 41 Transport infrastructure 42 Rail and road 42 Inland navigation, major river and sea ports and combined transport 48 Telecommunications infrastructure 50 Social/medical infrastructure 50 Standards of living 50 2.4. Ethnic tensions and conflict regions 55 2.5. Migration 56 International migration 56 Interregional migration 57 2.6. Environmental and energy problems — Ecological crisis areas 57 Air and water pollution 57 Transborder pollution 62 Energy consumption 63 Environmental renewal 63 2.7. Border and transit areas 63 The Polish-German border area 66 The Czech-German border area 68 The border area between Albania, former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia, Bulgaria and Greece 71 The Slovenian-Italian border area 74 2.8. Summary: Regional development obstacles and potentials 76 3. Regional impact in the Community territory in the short term 79 3.1. Current degree of involvement between Eastern and Western Europe 79 3.2. Short-term likely-impact model — Methodology and selection of parameters 80 Economic sensitivity 80 Accessibility potential 81 Response potential 81 Contents 3.3. Operationalization of the model 81 Economic sensitivity 83 Accessibility potential 85 Interpénétration potential 89 Response potential 92 Response potential index 97 Short-term likely impact 100 4. Possible spatial developments in Central and Eastern Europe in the medium term (scenarios) 107 4.1. Basic assumptions 110 Likely path of future developments 110 Relative normalization ν growing instability 110 Isles of growth 111 Lasting crisis areas 111 Increasing regional disparities 114 4.2. Ongoing migration 115 Future migration flows 115 Spatial impact on EC regions 117 4.3. Increasing transit and traffic flows and impact on transit areas 118 Increasing transit and traffic flows between Central and Eastern Europe and the Community 118 Spatial impact of future transit and traffic flows on Central and East European countries 126 Likely impact on border and transit areas in Central and Eastern Europe 127 Spatial impact of future transit and traffic flows on the Community 127 Likely bottlenecks and spatial impact on border and transit areas in Central and Eastern Europe 129 4.4. Slow ecological renewal and spatial implications 130 Spatial impact on the Community territory 131 The reduction of global environmental damage: the example of acid rain 131 Possible environmental impacts on the external border areas of the Community territory 131 4.5. Medium-term likely-impact on the external border areas of the Community 133 Cohesion effect 133 Draining effect 133 Island effect 134 Exclusion effect 134 Typifying of the external border areas 134 5. Medium-term likely-impact on the Community territory 141 5.1. Possible determinants of future spatial impact 141 5.2. Medium-term likely-impact model 141 Modification of economic sensitivity 141 Increase in accessibility potentials 143 Medium-term interpénétration 148 Response potential 149 Medium-term likely impact 149 5.3. Specification of likely impact and evaluation of prototypes of regional sensitivity 152 6. Summary and conclusions 157 Contents Bibliography 161 Annex 169 List of tables Tablela Growth rates of GDP, 1990-92 20 Tablelb Level of GDP, 1991 21 Table 1 c Unemployment and inflation, 1990-92 21 Table 2 Trade flows between the EC and Central and Eastern Europe, 1989-90 22 Table3 Trade balance and foreign debt, 1990-92 23 Table 4 Breakdown of national population by main ethnic groups in Central and Eastern Europe, 1990 55 Table 5 Demographic and economic profile, 1990 67 Table 6 Air pollution and water purification, 1990 68 Table 7 Demographic and economic profile, 1991 70 Table 8 Wage/price differentials, June/July 1992 70 Table 9 Demographic and economic profile, 1990 72 Table 10 Standard of living, 1990 72 Table 11 Trade and tourist flows between Greece and its northern neighbours, 1989-92 72 Table 12 Demographic and economic profile, 1990 75 Table13 Standard of living, 1990 75 Table 14 Wage/price differentials, June/July 1992 75 Table 15