Peter A Forbes Air Transport Consultant Qualifications: BA (Hons) Economics with Mathematics, Sussex University Postgraduate Diploma in Business Studies, Sheffield University Affiliations: Fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society (FRAeS) Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (FCILT) Member, Aviation Club of the UK Member, International Consulting Economists Association Fields of Special Competence: Peter Forbes is an air transport economist with over 35 years' experience in air transport planning and consultancy both in the UK and overseas. His studies have included aviation policy and strategy, regulation, air traffic forecasting, new route evaluation, and the financial and economic appraisal of a variety of airport, airline and ATC infrastructure developments. His consultancy work has included detailed analysis of airport and airline planning, operations, finance and environmental impact at airports and smaller general aviation airfields in the UK and overseas. In addition to his consultancy work, Mr Forbes has also worked on secondment to the European Commission in Brussels, where he acted as an air transport advisor to the EC’s programme of technical assistance to Russia and the CIS. He has also acted as an Expert Witness on airport development at Public Inquiries, written a number of published articles on air transport issues and has contributed to several BBC and independent TV and radio programmes. Professional Experience: ALAN STRATFORD AND ASSOCIATES LTD 1996 to date Managing Director EUROPEAN COMMISSION (DGIA) 1995-1996 Transport Expert – Tacis Programme - Brussels (on secondment from Alan Stratford and Associates) ALAN STRATFORD AND ASSOCIATES LTD 1991-1995 Senior Consultant UK CIVIL AVIATION AUTHORITY 1988-1990 Senior Scientific Officer (Dept of Operational Research and Analysis) BRITISH CALEDONIAN AIRWAYS 1983-1988 Controller Economics / Computer Systems (Ground Operations and Engineering Division) Significant Aviation Experience: OVERSEAS PROJECTS Air Traffic Forecasts – Athens International Airport A review of the air traffic forecasts as part of the assessment of the airport master plan and capital expenditure programme for Athens International Airport. The review was carried out for the WSP Group in preparation for the sale of the Greek Government's shareholding in the airport. Evaluation of EU-funded Aviation Sector Support Programme in Zambia Team Leader for a mid-term and subsequently for a final evaluation of an EU-funded Aviation Sector Support Programme (ASSP) in Zambia. This EUR 3.0m project, carried out as a part of a Framework Contrasct with Planet SA, provided technical assistance and training to the Zambian Civil Aviation Authority. Following the final evaluation, Terms of Reference were prepared for a new EUR 5.6m project (ASSP II) to provide technical assistance and training to the Zambian Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation Authority. Nigerian airport and MRO facility dispute - Expert witness report Preparation of an expert witness report in relation to a dispute concerning the construction of Akwa Ibom airport and associated MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) facility in Nigeria. The assignment was undertaken for a US law firm, Amsterdam and Partners. Airport Concession Agreement, Abidjan International Airport Review of the technical and financial performance of the Concession Agreement held by AERIA, a consortium including Egis Avia and Marseilles Airport, at Abidjan International Airport. The review, which was carried out the Ministry of Economic Infrastructure in Cote d’Ivoire, also included an appraisal of AERIA’s proposals for renewal of the Agreement, including the traffic forecasts and capital investment programme. Airport Passenger Terminal Valuation, St Petersburg Pulkovo Airport Expert witness for a valuation of a proposed new international passenger terminal at St Petersburg Pulkovo Airport. The valuation, which was supported by a detailed financial model, was used as part of a compensation claim by a prospective developer. Feasibility study for a new air charter company Feasibility study for a proposed new air charter company in Togo in west Africa. The study assessed market demand and the operational and financial viability of the operation, based on various aircraft types. Evaluation of the EC Flight Service, Somalia An evaluation of the EC Flight Service, an air charter operation for humanitarian aid and project staff on behalf of the European Commission. The service was assessed in terms of its effectiveness and cost-efficiency. Airline Business Plan, Air Senegal International Preparation of a five-year business plan for the West African airline, Air Senegal International. The project was carried out as part of a due diligence exercise for a potential Middle Eastern investor. Strategic Market Assessment, Shenzhen International Airport A strategic assessment of the competitive position of Shenzhen International Airport, one of five airports located in the Pearl River Delta in southern China. The assessment covered airport and airline marketing strategy, catchment area analysis and a financial appraisal of possible airport development options, including a second runway to be built on reclaimed land. Commercial Due Diligence Assessment – Air Senegal International Preparation of a five-year business plan for Air Senegal International. The business plan, which included the proposed route network, fleet, traffic forecasts organisational structure and financial projections, was produced as a part of a due diligence assessment for a prospective investor. Privatisation of Sydney Airport Preparation of passenger and cargo traffic forecasts, an evaluation of future airline market implications and project risk assessment as part of a bid by the Connect Consortium (Schiphol International/Fraport/ABN AMRO/National Bank of Australia) for the purchase of Sydney Airport. The privatisation of Sydney Airport represents the largest single airport trade sale undertaken throughout the world to date. Feasibility Study for a new multi-national airline in West and Central Africa Commissioned by a consortium of investment banks to carry out a major feasibility study and business plan for a new airline in West and Central Africa. The airline was established as ASKY and is how 40% owned by Ethiopian Airlines. Financial Evaluation of a New International Terminal at St Petersburg (Pulkovo) Airport, European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) As part of EBRD's evaluation of a build operate transfer (BOT) scheme for a new international terminal at Pulkovo Airport, St Petersburg, the existing economic and financial projections were reviewed and advice was given in respect of the proposed management services contract with the new operator. Traffic Forecasting Study, Berlin Brandenburg Airport Preparation of traffic forecasts for Berlin Brandenburg Airport on behalf of the IGV Consortium’s bid for an equity stake in the proposed new airport. The project involved projections of traffic levels at the three existing Berlin airports (Tegel, Tempelhof and Schonefeld) over the period 1998-2007, and at the new Berlin Brandenburg Airport over the period 2008-2030. Chek Lap Kok Airport Study, Scott Wilson Kirkpatrick/Cathay Pacific Airways Study involved a quantitative assessment of Cathay Pacific Airways’ requirements for aircraft gate and passenger terminal facilities (check in, departure lounge and transfer desk) at Chek Lap Kok Airport, Hong Kong. Future passenger flows and dwell times were analysed to identify the size and potential location of preferred and common use facilities at the new airport and at the downtown rail (MTR) terminal. UK AND IRISH PROJECTS The future of Fairoaks Airport A review of the aviation implications of the potential closure of the airport on behalf of Surrey Heath and Runnymede Councils. A planning application has been submitted for a new garden village to be built on the airfield site. Norwich Airport – Masterplan advice Advice on the masterplan and future land use at Norwich airport on behalf of Norwich City Council. Passenger traffic at the airport is expected to triple by 2045. Wycombe Air Park – Proposed development Consultancy advice to Wycombe District Council in relation to a proposed stadium at Wycombe Air Park (Booker Airfield) and for potential industrial development on the southern area of the airfield site. Wycombe District Council is the freeholder owner of the airfield. Future development of Carlisle Airport Advice to Carlisle City Council relating to the potential development of Carlisle Airport following its purchase by the Stobart Group. The advice included financial projections for the development of the airport which included a new freight distribution centre to be collocated at the site. Panshanger Airfield – Future Development A study on the potential runway options for Panshanger Airfield to facilitate residential development on the site with continued aviation use. The study was carried out with Nathaniel Lichfield and Partners (NLP). Cotswold Airport Development Study A study on the options for the development of Cotswold Airport (formerly Kemble Airfield) in Gloucestershire. The airfield's current uses include general aviation (including flight training), aircraft maintenance and corporate events. Farnborough Airport – Expert Witness Expert witness at a Public Inquiry for a proposed increase in the permitted number of business movements at Farnborough Airport in Hampshire. The evidence related to the air traffic