Peter A Forbes

Air Transport Consultant

Qualifications: BA (Hons) Economics with Mathematics, Sussex University Postgraduate Diploma in Business Studies, Sheffield University

Affiliations: Fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society (FRAeS) Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (FCILT) Member, Aviation Club of the UK Member, International Consulting Economists Association

Fields of Special Competence: Peter Forbes is an air transport economist with over 35 years' experience in air transport planning and consultancy both in the UK and overseas. His studies have included aviation policy and strategy, regulation, air traffic forecasting, new route evaluation, and the financial and economic appraisal of a variety of , airline and ATC infrastructure developments. His consultancy work has included detailed analysis of airport and airline planning, operations, finance and environmental impact at and smaller general aviation airfields in the UK and overseas. In addition to his consultancy work, Mr Forbes has also worked on secondment to the European Commission in Brussels, where he acted as an air transport advisor to the EC’s programme of technical assistance to Russia and the CIS. He has also acted as an Expert Witness on airport development at Public Inquiries, written a number of published articles on air transport issues and has contributed to several BBC and independent TV and radio programmes.

Professional Experience: ALAN STRATFORD AND ASSOCIATES LTD 1996 to date Managing Director

EUROPEAN COMMISSION (DGIA) 1995-1996 Transport Expert – Tacis Programme - Brussels (on secondment from Alan Stratford and Associates)

ALAN STRATFORD AND ASSOCIATES LTD 1991-1995 Senior Consultant

UK CIVIL AVIATION AUTHORITY 1988-1990 Senior Scientific Officer (Dept of Operational Research and Analysis)

BRITISH CALEDONIAN AIRWAYS 1983-1988 Controller Economics / Computer Systems (Ground Operations and Engineering Division)

Significant Aviation Experience:

OVERSEAS PROJECTS

Air Traffic Forecasts – Athens International Airport A review of the air traffic forecasts as part of the assessment of the airport master plan and capital expenditure programme for Athens International Airport. The review was carried out for the WSP Group in preparation for the sale of the Greek Government's shareholding in the airport.

Evaluation of EU-funded Aviation Sector Support Programme in Zambia Team Leader for a mid-term and subsequently for a final evaluation of an EU-funded Aviation Sector Support Programme (ASSP) in Zambia. This EUR 3.0m project, carried out as a part of a Framework Contrasct with Planet SA, provided technical assistance and training to the Zambian Civil Aviation Authority. Following the final evaluation, Terms of Reference were prepared for a new EUR 5.6m project (ASSP II) to provide technical assistance and training to the Zambian Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation Authority.

Nigerian airport and MRO facility dispute - Expert witness report Preparation of an expert witness report in relation to a dispute concerning the construction of Akwa Ibom airport and associated MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) facility in Nigeria. The assignment was undertaken for a US law firm, Amsterdam and Partners.

Airport Concession Agreement, Abidjan International Airport Review of the technical and financial performance of the Concession Agreement held by AERIA, a consortium including Egis Avia and Marseilles Airport, at Abidjan International Airport. The review, which was carried out the Ministry of Economic Infrastructure in Cote d’Ivoire, also included an appraisal of AERIA’s proposals for renewal of the Agreement, including the traffic forecasts and capital investment programme.

Airport Passenger Terminal Valuation, St Petersburg Pulkovo Airport Expert witness for a valuation of a proposed new international passenger terminal at St Petersburg Pulkovo Airport. The valuation, which was supported by a detailed financial model, was used as part of a compensation claim by a prospective developer.

Feasibility study for a new air charter company Feasibility study for a proposed new air charter company in Togo in west . The study assessed market demand and the operational and financial viability of the operation, based on various aircraft types.

Evaluation of the EC Flight Service, Somalia An evaluation of the EC Flight Service, an air charter operation for humanitarian aid and project staff on behalf of the European Commission. The service was assessed in terms of its effectiveness and cost-efficiency.

Airline Business Plan, Air Senegal International Preparation of a five-year business plan for the West African airline, Air Senegal International. The project was carried out as part of a due diligence exercise for a potential Middle Eastern investor.

Strategic Market Assessment, Shenzhen International Airport A strategic assessment of the competitive position of Shenzhen International Airport, one of five airports located in the Pearl River Delta in southern China. The

assessment covered airport and airline marketing strategy, catchment area analysis and a financial appraisal of possible airport development options, including a second to be built on reclaimed land.

Commercial Due Diligence Assessment – Air Senegal International Preparation of a five-year business plan for Air Senegal International. The business plan, which included the proposed route network, fleet, traffic forecasts organisational structure and financial projections, was produced as a part of a due diligence assessment for a prospective investor.

Privatisation of Sydney Airport Preparation of passenger and cargo traffic forecasts, an evaluation of future airline market implications and project risk assessment as part of a bid by the Connect Consortium (Schiphol International/Fraport/ABN AMRO/National Bank of ) for the purchase of Sydney Airport. The privatisation of Sydney Airport represents the largest single airport trade sale undertaken throughout the world to date.

Feasibility Study for a new multi-national airline in West and Central Africa Commissioned by a consortium of investment banks to carry out a major feasibility study and business plan for a new airline in West and Central Africa. The airline was established as ASKY and is how 40% owned by Ethiopian Airlines.

Financial Evaluation of a New International Terminal at St Petersburg (Pulkovo) Airport, European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) As part of EBRD's evaluation of a build operate transfer (BOT) scheme for a new international terminal at Pulkovo Airport, St Petersburg, the existing economic and financial projections were reviewed and advice was given in respect of the proposed management services contract with the new operator.

Traffic Forecasting Study, Berlin Brandenburg Airport Preparation of traffic forecasts for Berlin Brandenburg Airport on behalf of the IGV Consortium’s bid for an equity stake in the proposed new airport. The project involved projections of traffic levels at the three existing Berlin airports (Tegel, Tempelhof and Schonefeld) over the period 1998-2007, and at the new Berlin Brandenburg Airport over the period 2008-2030.

Chek Lap Kok Airport Study, Scott Wilson Kirkpatrick/Cathay Pacific Airways Study involved a quantitative assessment of Cathay Pacific Airways’ requirements for aircraft gate and passenger terminal facilities (check in, departure lounge and transfer desk) at Chek Lap Kok Airport, Hong Kong. Future passenger flows and dwell times were analysed to identify the size and potential location of preferred and common use facilities at the new airport and at the downtown rail (MTR) terminal.

UK AND IRISH PROJECTS

The future of Fairoaks Airport A review of the aviation implications of the potential closure of the airport on behalf of Heath and Runnymede Councils. A planning application has been submitted for a new garden village to be built on the airfield site.

Norwich Airport – Masterplan advice Advice on the masterplan and future land use at on behalf of Norwich City Council. Passenger traffic at the airport is expected to triple by 2045.

Wycombe Air Park – Proposed development Consultancy advice to Wycombe District Council in relation to a proposed stadium at Wycombe Air Park (Booker Airfield) and for potential industrial development on the southern area of the airfield site. Wycombe District Council is the freeholder owner of the airfield.

Future development of Carlisle Airport Advice to Carlisle City Council relating to the potential development of Carlisle Airport following its purchase by the Stobart Group. The advice included financial projections for the development of the airport which included a new freight distribution centre to be collocated at the site.

Panshanger Airfield – Future Development A study on the potential runway options for Panshanger Airfield to facilitate residential development on the site with continued aviation use. The study was carried out with Nathaniel Lichfield and Partners (NLP).

Cotswold Airport Development Study A study on the options for the development of (formerly Kemble Airfield) in Gloucestershire. The airfield's current uses include general aviation (including flight training), aircraft maintenance and corporate events.

Farnborough Airport – Expert Witness Expert witness at a Public Inquiry for a proposed increase in the permitted number of business movements at in . The evidence related to the air traffic forecasts and the likely economic and employment impacts. The assignment was carried out for District Council.

Heathrow Airport – Capital Investment Programme Review (Q6) Project Director for a review of the Q6 capital investment programme covering the period 2014-2019 on behalf of the Civil Aviation Authority. The assessment covers an appraisal of the business cases for the proposed projects, an evaluation of the costing procedures and other cross-cutting issues and an assessment of the expected capital efficiency and value for money.

Duxford Airport Consultancy advice in relation to the impact of a proposed mast on operations at Duxford Airport in Cambridgeshire. The assignment was carried out for Cambridgeshire County Council.

Dublin Airport Capacity Parameters Study Advice to the Commission for Aviation Regulation in on the capacity and slot coordination parameters for Airport, including performance analysis and interviews with airlines. Dublin is an EU Level 3 Coordinated Airport and the Commission has a statutory duty to declare its capacity.

Heathrow Airport – Capital Efficiency and Consultation Review (Q5) On behalf of the Civil Aviation Authority, a review of the Q5 capital investment programme (CIP) and the consultation process with stakeholders. The Q5 CIP covered the period 2008-2013 and had an initial budget of £4,734m.

New Airport Capacity in /South East Responsible for the preparation of the Royal Aeronautical Society’s submission to the Davies Commission following its short-listing of three options for a new runway at London Heathrow or Gatwick Airports.

Farnborough Airport – Expert Witness Expert Witness for a claim under the Land Compensation Act relating to the development of Farnborough Airport. The evidence involved an appraisal of the impact of a runway extension and the expansion of the aprons at the airport following the purchase of the airport by TAG Aviation from the Ministry of Defence.

Options for New Airport Capacity in the UK – Advice to Kent County Council Advice to Kent County Council relating to the long-term options for new capacity in the UK as part of their submission to the Airports Commission. The advice included consideration of the future role of in Kent.

Feasibility Study for a Business Park at City of Airport Team leader for a feasibility study for a new business park at in . The study reviewed the potential demand for the various types of businesses that might be attracted to the business park, eg aircraft maintenance, aircraft paint facility, warehousing etc .

Manchester International Airport - Second Runway Project Manager for a comparative analysis of the aircraft noise impact of the second runway at International Airport. The assessment was undertaken as part of a claim by residents under the Lands Tribunal Act.

London Stansted Airport – Proposed Second Runway and Terminal Development Appointed by the Competition Commission to provide advice on the air traffic forecasts, layout options and capital costs for BAA's G2 proposals (second runway and terminal development) at . The project, which is being carried out in the context of the Competition Commission's market investigation into the supply of airport services by BAA, was undertaken in conjunction with the cost consultants, Gleeds.

London Stansted Airport – Evaluation of BAA’s Proposed Capital Investment Programme (CIP 2008) An evaluation of the BAA’s Capital Investment Programme (CIP 2008) and associated traffic forecasts at London Stansted Airport. The evaluation was undertaken for the Competition Commission following the referral of the price control review for Q5 for the airport by the CAA. The assessment covered all major items of capital expenditure in terms of meeting future capacity requirements and, for certain items, in achieving a suitable commercial return to be passed through to airport users.

Sale of Exeter International Airport Preparation of a business plan for the future development of Exeter International Airport on behalf of a consortium bidding for the sale of the airport. The plan included air traffic forecasts, 20 year financial projections and an indicative benchmark valuation range.

Section 106 Planning Agreement, London Manston Airport Assistance to Thanet District Council in the preparation of a Section 106 Agreement (under the Town and Country Planning Act 1990). The Agreement covered aircraft noise and other environmental safeguards for the possible development of London Manston Airport (previously Kent International Airport), which had recently been purchased from the Ministry of Defence by the Wiggins Group.

Traffic Forecasting Study, East Midlands International Airport Responsible for preparing passenger and cargo traffic forecasts to evaluate the effect of a future runway extension at East Midlands International Airport. The forecasts,

which were broken down by aircraft movements and by aircraft type, were used to generate noise contours for an Environmental Statement for the runway extension

London Stansted Airport - Expert Witness at Public Inquiry Expert Witness at the Public Inquiry for the relaxation of aircraft movement limits at London Stansted Airport. The Proof of Evidence submitted to the Inquiry provided comments on the air traffic forecasts prepared by BAA plc.

Dublin Airport Commercial Revenue Assessment As part of the assessment of future revenue under the single till principle, preparation of forecasts of commercial revenue at Dublin Airport including duty-free and tax paid retailing, food and beverage, property, ground handling, advertising and all other concessions. The study was carried out for the Commission for Aviation Regulation as part of their next airport charges review.

Bagby Airfield – Expert witness at Public Inquiry Expert Witness at a Public Inquiry concerning the level of aircraft movements at Bagby Airfield in North Yorkshire. The assignment was carried out on behalf of Hambleton District Council.

Bournemouth International Airport - Car Parking Cost Assessment Provision of a report concerning the comparative costs of providing car parking at alternative site locations at Bournemouth International Airport. The assessment was used as evidence in a court claim by the site lessor.

Development of London A review of the planning and financial implications of developing London Luton Airport. The options assessed included an extension of the existing runway and four possible alignments for a replacement runway to the south and to the east of the existing site. An assessment of capital and operating costs was made for a financial model of the existing concession held by Abertis. The review was carried out for Luton Borough Council.

Advice on the Development of London Luton and Stansted Airports Advice on the options for the development of London Luton and Stansted Airports resulting from the Department of Transport’s South East and East of England Regional Air Services Study (SERAS). Commissioned by North Hertfordshire District Council.

SERAS Study, Transport for London (TfL) Advice to Transport for London (TfL) on three specific topics concerning the development of London’s airports for TfL’s response to the UK Government’s SE Regional Air Services Study. The topic areas included the validity of the DETR traffic forecasts, the implications of the possible development of three London hub airports and the possible environmental impacts and policies including the effects of an aviation fuel tax and/or VAT on air fares.

Passenger Terminal Study, Belfast City Airport Advice to Belfast City Council in respect of a planning application for a new passenger terminal at Belfast City Airport. The plans submitted by the airport operator, Shorts Brothers, were evaluated in terms of the required size of the terminal to meet the forecasted passenger demand.

Market Feasibility Study, Kent International Airport Preparation of a route feasibility study for the development of scheduled and charter passenger services from Kent International Airport, which is based at RAF Manston in

Kent. The study formed part of a strategic review following the withdrawal of the Ministry of Defence from the airport site.

Financial Evaluation of a Major Airport Development in South East England Responsible for the financial evaluation of a major airport development at a confidential site in south east England. Cash flow and profit projections were produced for the proposed investment, to be funded by a combination of debt and equity finance. Sensitivity analysis was used to test the effect of key variables such as forecasted traffic levels and the phasing of capital expenditure .

Traffic Forecasting and Route Evaluation Study, City of Derry Airport Preparation of traffic forecasts for a range of possible new routes to be served from City of Derry airport in Northern Ireland. The traffic forecasts were used as the basis of a route evaluation study, which assessed the financial viability of various routes using different aircraft types.

Customer Satisfaction and Demographics Survey - Belfast International Airport This survey, which involved interviews with over 10,000 departure passengers, was designed to identify passenger demographics, surface origin/destination, and airport access mode. In addition, the survey also provided key airport marketing data such as new route analysis, ticket booking methods and travel agent used.

Passenger Survey Research, London Luton Airport Responsible for a continuous programme of quarterly passenger surveys at London Luton Airport to monitor passenger demographics, origin/destination, surface access mode and the usage of existing and potential new airport facilities. The surveys also monitored tour operator, holiday type and travel agent used, and assessed quality of service standards for check in, baggage reclaim, car parking, flight information systems, airport/station coach links and airport retail/catering outlets.

Airport Slot Allocation Model, London Gatwick Scheduling Committee Development of a model to assess the availability of noisy (Chapter I) airport slots on behalf of the Gatwick Scheduling Committee. The model was used to reallocate unwanted slot quotas to airlines that operated Chapter I aircraft.

Languages: English (mother tongue) French (good) Russian (basic)

Papers and Presentations: ‘The Future of the Aviation Sector in Africa’, Southern African Airlines Association Conference

‘Airport Hub development’, IIR Conference

‘Airport Development – Adapting to Changing Market Conditions’, Passenger Terminal Expo Conference

‘Airport Privatisation’, Association of European Transport Conference

'Will the Privatisation Trend Continue', SMi Conference - Private Financing of Airports and Airlines