(Little Hadham) Business Case

Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

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Issue 3 | 27 February 2014

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Job number 225805-31

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

Contents

Page

Executive Summary 4

1 Introduction 5 1.1 Background 5 1.2 Guidance 5 1.3 Scheme Overview 6 1.4 Project Status 6 1.5 Layout of Document 6

2 The Strategic Case 8 2.1 Introduction 8 2.2 Hertfordshire County Council Business Strategy 8 2.3 Policy Environment 10 2.4 The Problem Identified 14 2.5 Options Identification and Appraisal 18 2.6 Final Proposed Scheme 22 2.7 Impact of Do Nothing 23 2.8 Internal Drivers for Change 24 2.9 External Drivers for Change 24 2.10 Need and Objectives 27 2.11 Scope 27 2.12 Constraints 28 2.13 Inter-dependencies 28 2.14 Stakeholders 29 2.15 Measures of Success 30

3 The Economic Case 31 3.1 Introduction 31 3.2 Options Appraised 31 3.3 Costs 32 3.4 Traffic Data Sources 34 3.5 Growth 37 3.6 Benefits 39 3.7 Appraisal Summary Table 46 3.8 Value for Money Statement 48 3.9 Sensitivity and Risk Profile 50

4 Financial Case 53 4.1 Introduction 53

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

4.2 Costs 53 4.3 Funding Sources 54 4.4 Budgets / Funding Cover 56

5 Commercial Case 57 5.1 Introduction 57 5.2 Procurement Strategy 57

6 Management Case 59 6.1 Introduction 59 6.2 Evidence of Similar Projects 59 6.3 Project Dependencies 60 6.4 Governance, Organisational Structure and Roles 60 6.5 Programme 62 6.6 Approvals 63 6.7 Dependencies 64 6.8 Project Plan 64 6.9 Document Log 66 6.10 Project Controls and Reporting 68 6.11 Risk Management 68 6.12 Communications and Stakeholder Management 70 6.13 Benefits Realisation Plan 71 6.14 Monitoring and Evaluation 72 6.15 Options 72

References

Appendices

Appendix A Proposed Scheme Drawings

Appendix B Construction Risk and Opportunities Register

Appendix C Highways Agency Optimism Bias Tool

Appendix D Environmental Appraisal Report

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

Appendix E Project Plan

Appendix F Risk and Controls Report

Appendix G WebTAG Guidance

Appendix H Draft Memorandum of Understanding between Hertfordshire County Council and the Environment Agency

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

Executive Summary

The A120 is an important east-west link in Hertfordshire’s primary road network. The road runs from the A10 at Puckeridge eastwards to join the M11 near Stansted Airport and then through Essex to the port of Harwich. A single carriageway bypass carries the A120 around Bishop’s Stortford but at Little Hadham the road experiences severe congestion and delays as a result of a one-way working signal controlled junction in the centre of the village. A bypass for Little Hadham has been under consideration since the 1970s. The existing traffic signals have been upgraded several times over the years but there is no further scope for improvement. There are no options for physical widening or other localised infrastructure improvements due to the close proximity of Grade II listed private properties. An assessment of strategic options for improving the A120 was undertaken in 2006 with a local bypass to Little Hadham being identified as the preferred option. Route variations for the bypass were consulted on and appraised leading to county council cabinet approval of the preferred route in 2008. This forms the proposed scheme. With the bypass in place, congestion would be removed in the village and journey times along the A120 would be reduced, improving the quality of life for residents. In addition, a flood alleviation scheme will be brought forward as part of the scheme to help reduce the risk of flooding in Little Hadham and communities south of the bypass route. Within the current policy background, key themes have contributed to the environment from which the A120 proposals have evolved. These include the aspiration to enable growth, relieve traffic congestion and improve main interurban corridors. The scheme ‘fits’ with these topics by alleviating congestion along a key route through which faster journey times will help to stimulate growth. The economic case demonstrates very high value for money with a Benefit Cost Ratio of 9.1. Sensitivity tests of the underlying assumptions show that the scheme is still likely to represent high value for money even if traffic growth and time savings resulting from the bypass are lower than forecast. The capital funding required to deliver the scheme places it within the class of infrastructure project categorised as a local major transport scheme. Funding for such projects has been devolved from central government to Local Transport Bodies (LTBs) and ultimately to Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) via the Single Local Growth Fund (SLGF). The total funding required to deliver the scheme is £29.86m including inflation. Of this, £1.55m is preparation costs which will be funded by the county council with the rest being the subject of bids to the LTB fund for £18.50m and to the LEP for the balance of £9.81m. Approximately £1m towards the scheme is likely to be sourced via the Environment Agency due to the flood alleviation measures and Stansted Airport will provide £0.33m as part of a planning obligation. These contributions should reduce the requirement for the additional LEP SLGF funding to approximately £8.48m. The project will be managed and delivered by the sponsor, Hertfordshire County Council. Procurement will be undertaken and delivered in accordance with the council’s constitution. The contract strategy is still being finalised, although it is likely to be a Design and Build contract. The county council will use its in-house project and programme management procedures to provide strategic and financial control throughout the project life-cycle. The county council has delivered similar major schemes in the past and has staff with the required knowledge, skills and capabilities. A staged delivery programme has been developed to include design development, environment assessment and statutory procedures. The completed scheme is forecast to open in April 2019.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

1 Introduction

1.1 Background In 2012, the Department for Transport (DfT) announced its intention to devolve funding for local major transport schemes to Local Transport Bodies (LTBs) from 2015. LTBs are voluntary partnerships between local authorities, Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) and other organisations. Their primary role is to prioritise investments, to review and approve individual business cases for those investments, and to ensure effective delivery of the programme. In March 2013, the government, in its response to a report by Lord Heseltine commissioned to look at all aspects of government policy that affect economic growth, announced the creation of a Single Local Growth Fund to be made available through LEPs. The fund is an amalgam of other funding streams including the local major transport scheme funding devolved to LTBs. LTBs and promoting local authorities were instructed to continue developing proposals in order to be ready for 2015. In Hertfordshire, an initial priority list of schemes was identified by the county council and recommended by the LTB Shadow Board in March 2013. These schemes were then taken forward to develop a programme of expenditure for 2015- 2019. The Hertfordshire priority list submission, in July 2013, to enable the DfT to be able to determine LTB allocations, comprised three transport schemes identified as high priorities for the county. Subsequent to the submission of the priority schemes, indicative funding of £18.5m was announced for the Hertfordshire LTB with a profile of funding to be finalised by autumn 2013. The LEPs will produce Strategic Economic Plans for bidding to the Local Growth Fund. The government’s position is that as LTB plans should have been developed in close collaboration with LEPs, the LEP Strategic Economic Plans should include schemes identified in the prioritised list and the government will confirm a guaranteed minimum allocation for this element of the Local Growth Fund in line with the indicative funding allocation. The county council’s Framework Consultants were consequently commissioned to prepare business cases for schemes on the prioritised list for consideration by the LTB. This document, prepared by Arup, is the Business Case for the A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Scheme.

1.2 Guidance The current guidance; The Transport Business Cases was issued by the DfT in January 2013. This Business Case has been produced in line with the guidance where practicable although there are some aspects, particularly related to the early stages of the scheme development, where the methodology employed was current at the time but has now been superseded. The approach of the Transport Business Case guidance is based on the Office of Government Commerce’s Five Case Model that is used extensively within Central Government and across the public sector. Its aim is to show whether schemes:  Are supported by a robust case for change that fits with wider public policy objectives – the strategic case;

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

 Demonstrate value for money – the economic case;  Are commercially viable – the commercial case;  Are financially affordable – the financial case; and  Are achievable – the management case. As required by the guidance, and as set out in the LTB Assurance Framework, the scheme has been appraised within the Business Case in accordance with WebTAG1. In a few TAG Units, it was not possible for the exact guidance to be followed and so a practical and proportionate alternative methodology was developed; in these cases, a full explanation is set out in the relevant section of the text. The alternative approach was assessed and approved through the LTB’s Scrutiny process.

1.3 Scheme Overview The A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) provides a northern 3.9km bypass to the village of Little Hadham, which currently experiences congestion and delays as a result of a one-way working signal controlled junction in the centre of the village. The bypass also includes a flood alleviation scheme which would be delivered in partnership with the Environment Agency. The flood alleviation scheme will result in a reduction of flood risk to Little Hadham.

1.4 Project Status A bypass for Little Hadham has been under consideration since the 1970s. An assessment of the strategic options for improving the A120 was undertaken in 2006 with a local bypass to Little Hadham being identified as the preferred option. Route options for the bypass were consulted on and appraised in 2006-2007 with further refinement of the selected preferred option then carried out leading to county council Cabinet approval of the revised preferred route in 2008. This forms the proposed scheme. The proposed scheme has been progressed sufficiently to enable detailed and comprehensive assessments to be carried out as required for a WebTAG appraisal, which is the basis of this business case.

1.5 Layout of Document This document is structured in accordance with the guidance as follows: Chapter 1 provides the introduction that briefly sets out the background to the project, the guidance followed, a scheme overview, the present status of the project and the structure of the Business Case. Chapter 2 presents the strategic case and includes a detailed scheme description; the national, regional and local policy environment; issues that are faced locally including the problems that the scheme is designed to address; and the objectives of the scheme, against which its success will be measured.

1 WebTAG is being updated in January 2014. The versions of WebTAG currently at the time of producing the Business Case in 2013 have been used. These are listed in Appendix G. 1.0 | Issue 3 | 27 February 2014 Page 6 J:\225000\225805-00 HCC CST\225805-31\4 INTERNAL PROJECT DATA\4-05 REPORTS\A120 LITTLE HADHAM BYPASS\A120 BUSINESS CASE REPORT\UPDATES POST DECEMBER SUBMISSION\A120 BUSINESS CASE_ISSUE 3 27.02.14.DOCX

Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

Chapter 3 presents the economic case, setting out the appraisal of the costs and benefits of the scheme and demonstrating the scheme’s value for money. Chapter 4 presents the financial case, including the outturn cost estimate for the scheme. Chapter 5 presents the commercial case, setting out the procurement strategy and planned contract details. Chapter 6 presents the management case, outlining the governance, stakeholder management and risk management plans. Appendices and a glossary are provided at the end of the document.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

2 The Strategic Case

2.1 Introduction The A120 is an important east-west link in Hertfordshire’s primary road network. The road runs from the A10 at Puckeridge eastwards to join the M11 near Stansted Airport and then through Essex, past Braintree and Colchester, to the port of Harwich. The road is also used as part of an official signed emergency diversion route for the M11 and M25. A single carriageway bypass carries the A120 around Bishop’s Stortford but at Little Hadham the road goes through the village and is constrained by a signalised junction in the centre. Increasingly severe delays to traffic have occurred on a daily basis in the centre of the village since the 1970s and this congestion is forecast to get worse with future development growth in the area. A bypass scheme has been developed over a number of years and consideration given to all of the alternatives in the selection of the preferred option. With the bypass in place, congestion would be removed in the village and journey times along the A120 would be reduced, improving the quality of life for residents. Furthermore, a flood mitigation scheme for the River Ash, supported by the Environment Agency, can be brought forward as part of the scheme to help reduce the risk of flooding to Little Hadham and communities south of the bypass route.

2.2 Hertfordshire County Council Business Strategy Hertfordshire County Council is the lead statutory authority for the county. Its areas of responsibility encompass:  Education;  Social Care;  Highways and public transport;  Waste disposal;  Fire and Rescue;  Strategic Planning Authority (for Transport, Minerals, Waste, and County Services such as Schools and Libraries);  Emergency Planning;  Trading Standards; and  Libraries. The strategic aims and responsibilities of the county council, relevant to this Business Case, are set out in a number of key documents.

2.2.1 Corporate Plan The county council’s Corporate Plan 2013 - 2017 relates to how the council’s ambitions for Hertfordshire and its people go well beyond the services that the

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

council is directly responsible for delivering. In setting out the vision for the county, the document states: ‘We want Hertfordshire to remain a county where people have the opportunity to live healthy, fulfilling lives in thriving, prosperous communities.’ The vision for Hertfordshire sets out a common purpose to see:  Citizens who enjoy life and are healthy;  Safe and active communities that get on well;  A strong economy where businesses thrive;  A high quality environment; and  People who are able to achieve their potential. The Corporate Plan is reviewed each year and revised if appropriate to ensure focus is maintained on the priorities, and targets and indicators are appropriately set. As part of the aim to provide a thriving economy, the following statement is made; ‘Across Hertfordshire, we want to see…A transport network which enables reasonable and predictable journey times, with reduced congestion and reliable bus services.’ This aim is relevant to the A120 Bypass scheme, which will reduce congestion, and bring improved and more reliable journey times for cars and bus services which travel east and west via the A120 across the county and through Little Hadham.

2.2.2 Sustainable Community Strategy The Sustainable Community Strategy ‘Hertfordshire 2021: A Brighter Future’ identifies nine key areas of concern for improvement, including ‘Transport and Access’. The council began the development of the Strategy by drawing on a wide range of sources to build a detailed evidence base for Hertfordshire. This helped identify a number of key issues for the county, both on a county-wide and more local basis and also provided the starting point for stakeholders to explore those key issues to 2021 at a series of workshops. These were held alongside a series of one-to-one scoping sessions with partner organisations and further workshops with groups ranging from local councillors to youth advocates. This development work culminated in a draft strategy to which over 55 separate organisations responded – feedback was collated, analysed and taken into account when producing the final strategy. The document states that, ‘As businesses have confirmed, good transport links within and through the county are essential to Hertfordshire’s economy. There are several major transport routes running through the county, with more than 4 million car journeys every day….’. The county is ‘well connected, both nationally and internationally, but also brings with it a number of challenges which need to be overcome. Traffic flows in the county are 35% higher than the national average. Congestion is seen by local people as one of the biggest issues facing Hertfordshire and something which has got worse in recent years. Car ownership is high…. and as a consequence car reliance is heavy – Hertfordshire residents travel 65% further by car than the UK average and two thirds of people use it as the main mode of travel to work.’ This creates an ‘exceptionally busy road network 1.0 | Issue 3 | 27 February 2014 Page 9 J:\225000\225805-00 HCC CST\225805-31\4 INTERNAL PROJECT DATA\4-05 REPORTS\A120 LITTLE HADHAM BYPASS\A120 BUSINESS CASE REPORT\UPDATES POST DECEMBER SUBMISSION\A120 BUSINESS CASE_ISSUE 3 27.02.14.DOCX

Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

particularly during rush hour.’ ‘In addition, given Hertfordshire’s transport network is based largely on routes in and out of London, moving across the county is more problematic with east-to-west travel (on routes such as the A120) in particular need of improvement.’ Although numbers are falling, people continue to be killed or seriously injured on the county’s roads each year. These incidents also add to congestion and even small road traffic collisions can produce disruption. The Sustainable Community Strategy Actions and Objectives for Transport and Access include:  Improve the reliability of journey times and improve east-to-west travel;  Ensure effective long term management and maintenance of the transport network;  Improve road safety;  Tackle the worst congestion hot spots;  Maintain the footways and roads of the county in a safe condition, making best use of existing resources; and  Reduce road casualties. The A120 Bypass will address a major congestion hot spot, and improve journey times for vehicles travelling east or west across the county, in line with the objectives. The reduction in traffic passing through the centre of Little Hadham would also improve the environment and the safety characteristics for pedestrians and cyclists in Little Hadham.

2.3 Policy Environment The government’s 2011 Transport White Paper sets the course for future transport investment and influences the current policy framework at the national and local level. Beneath the strategic national policy environment, local policies are tailored to local needs and conditions while still reflecting the wider framework. The following section describes the policy environment within which the A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) scheme has been developed and highlights how the proposals comply with national and local policies, and fit into the European framework. Relevant studies have also been included that have contributed to the framework in which the scheme has evolved.

2.3.1 Transport White Paper (Creating Growth, Cutting Carbon Making Sustainable Local Transport Happen) 2011 The 2011 Government Transport White Paper ‘Creating Growth, Cutting Carbon’ represents a step forward towards meeting two key government objectives: 1) to help create growth in the economy, and 2) to tackle climate change by cutting carbon emissions. The White Paper also states that the government is committed to tackling shared local and national network congestion hotspots. It also acknowledges that there are places where congestion causes slow and unreliable

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

journeys with significant impacts on the economy and the environment. The paper recognises that it is simply not possible for public transport, walking or cycling to represent a viable alternative to the private car for all journeys, particularly in rural areas and for some longer or multi-leg journeys. The A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) scheme is therefore consistent with the approach set out in the White Paper related to congestion and economic growth. The present road network in Hertfordshire leads to significant congestion which is likely to worsen with the substantial housing and employment opportunities that are planned in the area over the coming decades.

2.3.2 The National Planning Policy Framework 2012 The National Planning Policy Framework outlines that local authorities should work with neighbouring authorities and transport providers to develop strategies for the provision of viable infrastructure necessary to support sustainable development, including ... ‘transport investment necessary to support strategies for the growth of ports, airports or other major generators of travel demand in their areas’. This is relevant to the A120 scheme. Whilst it is not suggested that the airport is seeking to increase its existing permitted passenger numbers, in November 2013, Ryanair announced a deal with the owners of London Stansted Airport (which lies some 10km east of Little Hadham) to increase the number of passengers it serves at the airport from just over 13m a year at present to more than 18m by 2018 and to nearly 21m by 20232. This follows the June 2013, agreement with easyJet to enable that airline to more than double its passenger numbers at Stansted from a current 2.8million passengers to six million passengers a year over the next five years3.

2.3.3 The Eddington Transport Study: The case for action: Sir Rod Eddington’s advice to Government 2006 In 2006, HM Treasury published the findings of a national study commissioned by the Government into the impacts of transport on economic growth. This work recommended three strategic economic priorities for transport policy over the next 20 years, to address: congested and growing city catchments; and the key interurban corridors and the key international gateways that are showing signs of increasing congestion and unreliability. These are the most heavily used and economically significant parts of the network.

2.3.4 Transport and the Economy in the East of England: the Transport Economic Evidence Study September 2008 The Transport Economic Evidence Study undertaken in 2008 recognises the extent to which the section of the A120 to the east is close to capacity and the importance of its economic potential. The report makes the observation … ‘removal of transport constraints (congestion) would, if achievable, deliver significant economic benefits to the region’.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

The A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) will reduce the congestion at the A120 Standon Road/Stortford Road/Albury Road junction, which will assist in delivering economic benefits to the region.

2.3.5 Local Enterprise Partnership Growth Strategy Local Enterprise Partnerships are a Government initiative led by local authorities and businesses across natural economic areas. They provide the vision, knowledge and strategic leadership needed to drive sustainable private sector growth and job creation in their area. The LEP Growth Strategy reveals that Hertfordshire’s LEP holds aspirations to harness the economic growth potential for Hertfordshire that can be associated with Stansted Airport. Reducing delays on the A120 is likely to support this LEP goal.

2.3.6 The Hertfordshire Infrastructure and Investment Strategy November 2009 This 2009 strategy considers where investment in transport infrastructure should be directed over the period 2011 to 2031. It identifies that east-to-west journeys across the county are less well catered for than strategic north to south movements. Whilst the M1, A1(M), A1, A10 and M11 provide the main framework for strategic north-to-south movements, the M25 offers the main east to west corridor in the south of the county, supplemented by a variety of route combinations to cater for journeys further north including the A414-A1169 and A505-A602. The report highlights that the A120 Standon Road/Stortford Road/Albury Road junction in Little Hadham experiences capacity problems. The report shows that if there was no growth within the county up to 2021, the programmed infrastructure would not be effective at solving highway capacity problems, and therefore once growth is added these problems are likely to worsen. The increase in highway network issues is largely attributed to a historic deficit in network improvements and the added pressure of growth. The A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) scheme would alleviate the capacity problems currently experienced at the A120 Standon Road/Stortford Road/Albury Road junction and assist with catering for future forecast growth.

2.3.7 Hertfordshire’s Local Transport Plan 2011 – 2031 The vision for Hertfordshire’s third Local Transport Plan (LTP3) is: ‘To provide a safe, efficient and resilient transport system that serves the needs of business and residents across Hertfordshire and minimises its impact on the environment.’ Making best use of the existing network and introducing targeted schemes where improvements are required so as to deliver a reliable and readily usable transport network to benefit local business, encourage further economic growth and allow access for all to everyday facilities is identified as one of the ways to achieve this vision.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

LTP3 has five main goals that form the basis of the County Transport Strategy. The A120 scheme supports all of these goals, and goals 1 and 3 in particular by reducing congestion to support economic growth and enhancing the quality of life in Little Hadham.

LTP3 Goal Level of Benefits of Scheme Support 1. Support economic development and High Reduces congestion on a key network planned dwelling growth route 2. Improve transport opportunities for Low Improves public transport reliability all and achieve behavioural change in and enhances the environment to mode choice support walking and cycling in Little Hadham 3. Enhance quality of life, health and High Removes congestion and improves the natural, built and historic journey reliability. Reduces environment for all Hertfordshire environmental impacts of congestion residents for residents of Little Hadham. Benefits the built /historic fabric in Little Hadham and reduces flooding risk. 4. Improve the safety and security of Medium Safety improvements for A120 users residents and other road users and residents of Little Hadham 5. Reduce transport’s contribution to Medium Reduced congestion will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve greenhouse gases its resilience Table 1: Local Transport Plan goals

2.3.8 Inter-Urban Route Strategy (2013) The county council has adopted an Inter-Urban Route Strategy as a daughter document to LTP3, which identifies a strategy for a series of key corridors linking the urban centres within the county and across the borders to neighbouring authorities. Eight corridors were considered including Standon to Bishop’s Stortford (A120 corridor). The strategy recognises that there is a significant bottleneck at Little Hadham due to the narrow width of the A120 in this location, and how the traffic signals at the junction with Albury Road create significant congestion. The document takes into account the aspiration of a long standing proposal to implement a bypass around Little Hadham and lists this in the table of longer term options.

2.3.9 East Herts Local Plan Second Review April 2007 The Local Plan describes the aim of East Herts Council’s transport planning strategy as to promote the development of an integrated transport system to serve all users, and thus aid the reduction of the dominance of private motorised traffic and its adverse effects on the environment, in order to enhance East Hertfordshire as an attractive place in which to live and work. The objectives include supporting the development of an integrated transport system, in a manner that allows for the movement of people and goods, necessary to sustain the economic, social and environmental well-being of East Hertfordshire.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

As part of the objectives, East Herts Council recognises the importance of the road hierarchy and supports the maintenance and improvement of primary roads, including the A120 between Standon/Puckeridge and Bishop’s Stortford. East Herts supports primary route network improvements identified in the Hertfordshire Local Transport Plan, including the A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) scheme so long as it ensures that traffic flows are smoother, safer and less polluting than current circumstances. The A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) scheme will improve journey times for vehicles that currently pass through the village, which should in turn lead to less traffic pollution in the local area. The reduction in traffic passing through Little Hadham should also improve the safety characteristics for pedestrians and cyclists in the village. These benefits are in line with those that East Herts Council identified as requirements for their support.

2.3.10 East Herts Transport Plan April 2007 The Eastern Herts Transport Plan has been developed as part of the county council initiative to develop integrated, sustainable transport facilities which will serve the needs of the current population whilst protecting the interests of future generations. The Plan is a long term plan providing a framework on which transportation improvements over the next 15 - 20 years will be focused. It contains interrelated elements which are transport issues, objectives, strategies, schemes and measures. The Plan recognises problems on the A120; ‘Little Hadham has a main road dividing the village and is a well-known bottleneck on the A120.’

2.3.11 Conclusions on the Policy Environment Within the historic and current policy background, key themes include the aspiration to create growth, relieve traffic congestion, improve key interurban transport corridors, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the importance of east- west routes to Hertfordshire’s economy. These principal areas of concern have contributed to the policy environment from which the A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) scheme has evolved. The scheme fits with these topics by alleviating congestion at a key bottleneck on an east-west route, through which greenhouse gases will also be reduced and faster journey times will help to stimulate growth.

2.4 The Problem Identified This section describes the problem identified, the evidence base underpinning this and provides justification for Government intervention. The traffic congestion and delays in Little Hadham originate from the constraints imposed by a narrow S bend on the A120 as it passes east to west in the centre of the village. Two minor side roads, from Albury to the north and Much Hadham to the south, join the main road at this location, forming a staggered cross roads. The roads and footways are very constricted by adjacent historic buildings and a bridge over the River Ash. The width restrictions mean that only one-way working is possible with only one arm at green at a time. The two junctions lie at the bottom of a shallow dip with the A120 climbing away in both directions, see Figure 1.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

Figure 1: Little Hadham. A120 east to west (right to left)

2.4.1 History Traffic signals were introduced at the double junction in the village in 1974 due to safety concerns and the difficulty for HGVs to negotiate the narrow S bend4. This improved road safety and eased the problem of HGV access but exacerbated traffic delays, which worsened as traffic grew over time. Over a period of years, additional capacity has been squeezed from the traffic signals through the use of new technologies, but there is now little capacity enhancement available from further changes. Road layout improvements are not possible due to the physical constraints and listed status of the buildings. An assessment of the operation and capacity of the traffic signals undertaken in 2006 showed that, at times, the westbound queue amounted to 230 vehicles and extended some 3 km5. The county council has been considering the need for a bypass of Little Hadham since the 1970s, with its then Highways Committee discussing options at a meeting in 1976. The project was identified in October 2004 at a Transport Panel for further work. Following careful consideration, in July 2006 the county council’s Highways and Transport Panel, endorsed the continued Primary Route function of the A120 and the need for improvements in the form of local bypasses. The adopted strategy for the corridor between the A10 and Bishop’s Stortford is:

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

 To recognise the important role of the A120 between A10 and Bishops Stortford as a Primary Route, by bringing the route up to modern safety standards and providing appropriate capacity, whilst minimising adverse environmental impacts;  To make future improvements within the corridor ‘on-line’ where possible, but to promote local bypasses for Standon and Little Hadham; and  The local bypasses for Standon and Little Hadham should be of single carriageway standard. The second Local Transport Plan (LTP2) (2006/7 – 2010/11) identified the A120 at Little Hadham as a Major Scheme to be put forward to the DfT for funding, with the county council stating they would undertake full public consultation to investigate all the options to address the issue at Little Hadham. In the current LTP3 the A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) is identified as one of the three main major schemes being developed. The Hertfordshire Infrastructure and Investment Strategy lists the A120 Bypass as an example of strategic (countywide scale) infrastructure, i.e.: ‘projects that the county’s infrastructure planning partners consider worth prioritising to ensure concerted action by a range of agencies and possibly funding streams’.

2.4.2 Traffic Flows and Journey Times Traffic flows on the A120 east of Little Hadham, shown in Table 2, have been collected by the county council since 1995 and have shown a steady overall increase in excess of the county-wide traffic growth up until 2006. After 2008, traffic showed a decrease in line with elsewhere in the county. The 2011 Average Annual Weekday Traffic (AAWT) flow was 15,706 vehicles two-way, which decreased to a two way 24 hour annual average weekday flow of 15,197 vehicles in 2012 (based on data from the county council’s permanent Automatic Traffic Count site to the east of Little Hadham).

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 AAWT 16,337 16,923 16,404 16,248 16,076 15,578 15,706 15,197 Table 2: Annual Average Weekday Traffic – total vehicles two-way 6

Traffic has decreased by around 3% from 2011 to 2012, continuing a period when traffic on the route had been decreasing, and 2012 traffic levels are lower than in 2005.

Queue surveys undertaken in May 2013 showed a queue of over 240m from 07:25 to 08:40 and again from 16:10 to 18:30 in the eastbound direction, with the queue over 100m for most of the 07:00-19:00 period. Similarly, in the westbound direction the queue was at least 235m from 07:10 to 09:45 and again from 16:00 to 18:10 and was longer than 100m for almost all of the day. Journey time surveys from May 2013 showed an average journey time in the peak periods of around 11 minutes in the AM in both directions and in the PM in the

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

Eastbound direction, with an average journey time of around 9.5 minutes in the PM in the westbound direction. This was measured along a 3.3km section of the A120 from the Tilekiln Farm entry west of Little Hadham through the village to the junction with the minor road towards Cradle End and Hadham Park access. This equates to an average speed of between 18 and 21kph (11-13 mph). This compares with around 4.5 minutes in the inter-peak periods (45-46 kph or 28-29mph) indicating that road users are experiencing considerable delays during the peak times. However, journey times are also variable during the inter-peak periods due to the long cycle time. The cycle at the junction can be as long as five minutes, which can result in a long delay for road users in both directions even when the traffic volume is low should they arrive shortly after the signal turns red. Little Hadham is identified as a congested junction on a key route in the current congestion map for the county from the 2012 Traffic and Travel Data Report as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Hertfordshire Congestion Map

2.4.3 Recent Developments Traffic continues to cause substantial impacts within the village for residents and the travelling public. At most times of the day there are considerable queues to get through the village leading to unpredictable journey times, noise, poor air quality and long queues of standing or slow moving traffic. Life in the village is greatly affected by the road conditions with a clear severance caused by the road. Motorist frustration at the delays caused by the traffic lights is resulting in drivers jumping red lights at the junction in Little Hadham. It is reported that over 100 drivers were apprehended by the police running a red light at this junction in

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

January and February 20137. As a result police are being called out to monitor the lights resulting in a cost on police resources. This behaviour will also increase the risk of accidents occurring at the junction (although recent accident data does not indicate red light running as a cause of any injury accidents).

2.5 Options Identification and Appraisal This section sets out all options identified (including do nothing) and evaluates their impact on the proposal’s objectives and wider public policy objectives. Risks associated with each option have been identified as well as any risks common to all options.

2.5.1 Development of the Preferred Option The scheme option described in this business case is the culmination of a large amount of analysis over a number of years. The current proposals were instigated in October 2004 when the council began a study of strategic options for addressing the problems of the A120 between the A10 and M11 and Little Hadham in particular. The preferred route decision timeline is shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Route Decision Timeline Note that funding for the project was not obtained after the 2008 decision, and the scheme was not progressed until 2013 when it was shortlisted as a priority scheme for Local Transport Body funding.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

It should also be noted that in 2008, the Highways and Transport Panel indicated that a bypass of Standon would be considered for the future and prioritised in line with county priorities and available funding, and is therefore not included within the scope of the current scheme.

2.5.2 Do-Nothing The do nothing option would be to make no changes to the current situation. The existing traffic signals have been upgraded to utilise MOVA8 within the last two years and are currently operating at the optimum level but due to the narrowness of the bend which is difficult for HGVs to negotiate, the signal controls only allow traffic through the junction in one direction at a time. There are no options for physical widening or other localised infrastructure improvements due to the close proximity of Grade II listed private properties. With housing growth planned at Bishop’s Stortford and the possibility of growth at Stansted Airport in the future, there is significant risk of the worsening of current traffic congestion through Little Hadham, as any additional traffic will add to the already substantial queues caused by the signals, increasing delays to traffic and severance and air pollution in the village.

2.5.3 Strategic Assessment A long list of strategic options for the A120 was put to the Council’s Transport Panel on 2 March 2006. These were: A. Local improvements in the centre of the village of Little Hadham B. A local bypass to Little Hadham C. Upgrading A120 between A10 and M11 to a local standard i.e. single carriageway (by providing local bypasses to Little Hadham and Standon) D. Upgrading the A120 between A10 and M11 to strategic standard i.e. dual carriageway E. Alternative east-west routes for strategic movements: E1. Strategic east-west route, with many options north of the M25 as far as the A505 E2. A new east-west rail route F. Alternative transport solutions. These options were assessed and it was recommend in March 2006 that options B, C, D, and E1 be developed further. This assessment identified the preferred option as B, a local bypass to Little Hadham, with Option C, including a further bypass to Standon, as the second best option. As a result, a strategy was agreed for the A120 corridor and objectives drawn up for a Little Hadham bypass.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

2.5.4 Bypass Route Option Assessment In November 2006, six local bypass alignments were approved for consultation as shown in Figure 4. These comprised two alignments to the south of the village and four to the north. The northern routes gave the advantage of being able to provide a flood alleviation scheme for Little Hadham, whilst the southern routes were shorter and closer to the village, although would need a viaduct to cross the road to Much Hadham and the River Ash flood plain9.

Figure 4: Bypass route options Assessment work was then undertaken on these six options, including, capital cost estimates, economic assessments, environmental assessments and a public consultation. From this work, the preferred option was identified as Option 5. The Public Consultation and Data Analysis Report10 showed that Option 5 was the most preferred route by the general public and had the support of East Herts District Council and Little Hadham Parish Council. The Environment Agency welcomed any scheme with the potential to provide flood attenuation. Traffic modelling was undertaken to support the options assessment. This included an initial course test of routes north or south of the village to understand the influence of the route on traffic volumes followed by further model runs to provide information on flows and journey times to inform the public consultation. Following this, tests of all six options were undertaken to feed into the economic assessment as part of the consultation report. Option 5 had a very high Benefit to Cost Ratio, although it was the most expensive option. It was more acceptable to residents of Hadham Hall than Option 2, and creates the greatest environmental benefit to the village centre. It does not sever the

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

village as the southern options would do although it creates the greatest severance of agricultural land. Option 5 was adopted as the preferred route by Hertfordshire County Council Cabinet in September 2007 on the basis of multiple factors, including technical assessments, cost factors and consultation results, with the recommendation for further localised analysis and landowner engagement to determine the optimum arrangement for the tie-ins at the east and west extremities.

2.5.5 Development of Preferred Option The preferred route was amended as a result of a landscape appraisal, preliminary fauna survey, a habitats assessment and an agricultural land classification study, and to take account of issues raised during the public consultation. An alternative alignment was developed for the west end of the route, whilst two options were considered for the east end. The alternative alignment at the west end followed the advice of the landscape assessment and moved the junction east, reducing the effects on several properties and locating the bypass on lower ground, reducing its visual impact. The east end options included one which was recommended by the landscape assessment (5A) and another which moves the route away from Hadham Lodge but closer to Savernake and Plantings Cottages (5B). Option 5B was endorsed as the optimum route for the bypass and this was approved by the full Cabinet in June 2008. See Figure 5.

Figure 5: Route 5B preferred option

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

2.5.6 Current Preferred Option Work on the A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) was put on hold in 2010. Current work in preparing a Major Scheme Business Case for funding the bypass in the 2015- 2019 period has continued to use the preferred option for the route developed in 2008. The criteria for funding from the LTB included that the scheme had to be deliverable by 2019. This required a scheme with a preferred route. The steps to determine the preferred route were reviewed, including assessing whether the traffic patterns might have changed since the previous work was done. The assessment found that the way in which the preferred route was chosen was sound, and that traffic patterns have not changed significantly and therefore it was reasonable to progress to seek funding with the preferred route.

2.6 Final Proposed Scheme This section provides a physical description of the proposed A120 Bypass (Little Hadham). The scheme was originally developed in 2006-2008 and has been through the extensive option appraisal set out above, to reach the final proposed scheme; Option 5B presented here. The proposed scheme drawings are provided in Appendix A and reproduced in Figure 6.

Figure 6: Scheme Drawing The western end of the preferred bypass route diverges from the existing A120 at an at-grade roundabout approximately 650m west of the Little Hadham traffic signals. It then heads north-east across open countryside, mainly in cutting, until it passes beneath a new bridge that would carry the C15 Albury Road over the bypass. It should be noted that there is no junction with the C15. East of Albury Road the bypass would rise above the River Ash flood plain on an embankment that forms part of the proposed flood alleviation scheme. Continuing eastward the bypass would pass under a new access bridge adjacent to Mill Mound before curving southward between Hadham Park and Hadham Lodge to connect back onto the existing A120 at a new roundabout approximately 600m west of the Bishop’s Stortford Northern Bypass.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

The proposed bypass is a single carriageway with differential acceleration lanes provided at each end and at mid-length. The bypass shall be designed to Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB) standards. There are a number of side roads and farm tracks and rights of way that cross the route of the proposed bypass. The design of these roads and tracks will be in accordance with DMRB and will be in-character with the existing roads and tracks. There are three main structures required for the side roads over the proposed bypass. It is intended to divert a number of Rights of Way, the details of which will be agreed with the county’s Rights of Way Officer. The legal statutes required to divert will be incorporated within the Roads Orders. No provision for Non-Motorised Users (NMU) has been allowed for along the new bypass between two new roundabouts, as east-west NMUs will find the former A120 through the village more direct, convenient and attractive, and for north- south NMUs, Albury Road or public footpaths and bridleways are available. To build on the opportunity provided by the removal of A120 through traffic, a traffic calming scheme will be brought forward within Little Hadham. The proposals will be delivered by a different unit of Hertfordshire Highways and, subject to safety assessment and detailed design, are likely to incorporate removal of the traffic signals and enhancements for pedestrians and cyclists including consideration of access to the village school. Other cycle facilities associated with the bypass will be considered during detailed design of the scheme. The flood-retention embankment across the River Ash valley will be designed to provide a flood storage area that will extend northwards as far as Upwick Green Road. The design will allow for a freeboard of up to 1.0m above the maximum height of water retained by the embankment. The requirement for the freeboard and its height will be confirmed at the detailed design stage. A smaller flood retention embankment is provided across the Albury Tributary to provide a flood storage area for this watercourse. As part of the flood alleviation scheme for the flood basin, a flood storage area will also be delivered at Lloyd’s Drain, near the western end of the bypass. All three flood storage areas are required to address the flood risk issues in Little Hadham and communities to the south.

2.7 Impact of Do Nothing It is likely that a number of factors will lead to increased traffic on the A120 corridor in future that will increase the serious delays that already occur and have occurred for a large number of years, and worsen the detrimental community and environmental impacts already evident in Little Hadham. In 2006 the county council endorsed the continued primary route function of the A120 and the need for improvements in the form of local bypasses at Standon and Little Hadham. There has been a decrease of 1.2% in vehicle kilometres travelled from 2011 to 2012 in Hertfordshire as a whole, and similarly traffic on the section of the A120 through Little Hadham traffic also decreased from 2011 to 2012 based on data from the county council’s permanent monitoring site. 2011 Census data shows that car ownership levels are higher in Hertfordshire than nationally with 83% of households having access to one or more vehicles as against 74% in England as a whole. East Herts is even higher at 87%. Similarly, forecast traffic growth of 14.9% from 2012 to 2031 is higher in the county than Great 1.0 | Issue 3 | 27 February 2014 Page 23 J:\225000\225805-00 HCC CST\225805-31\4 INTERNAL PROJECT DATA\4-05 REPORTS\A120 LITTLE HADHAM BYPASS\A120 BUSINESS CASE REPORT\UPDATES POST DECEMBER SUBMISSION\A120 BUSINESS CASE_ISSUE 3 27.02.14.DOCX

Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

Britain (11.7%)11. Despite having 2% of the population and 1.3% of the land, nearly 3% of all national vehicle miles are in Hertfordshire.12 In addition to underlying trends, there are plans for the new developments in the local area and substantial push for expansion of passenger throughput (up to permitted levels) at Stansted Airport that are expected to increase traffic flows on the A120 through Little Hadham. The Bishop’s Stortford and Uttlesford areas are targeted for housing growth. The Bishop’s Stortford North area has been ‘safeguarded’ for development for 25 years, with a total estimated capacity of 2,600 houses plus related development and facilities. It is currently anticipated that the area will be built out over a ten year period between the years 2015 and 2025. A residential scheme for c. 2,200 houses was submitted for planning approval in February 2013. The outline application was approved by East Herts Planning committee in January 2014, subject to the completion of a legal agreement and revisions to some of the conditions. The terms of the S106 agreement are still to be finalised, but the contribution to the A120 bypass is expected to be less than £100,000. Stansted Airport is likely to expand from its current throughput of 17 million passengers per annum, which is down from a peak of 23.7 million but is likely to grow again as the economy picks up. Further expansion and the previous plans for a second runway are currently ruled out, although the national airport strategy is under review. This scheme is intended to address current permitted passenger throughput levels only, and any expansion plans not already approved have not been considered. Stansted Airport is required to review its airport surface access strategy every two years as part of its S106 obligations. Stansted Airport has committed £250,000 in 2008 prices to the construction of the A120 bypass at Little Hadham as part of an existing S106 planning obligation.

2.8 Internal Drivers for Change The county council vision is to provide a safe, efficient and resilient transport system that serves the needs of business and residents across Hertfordshire and minimises its impact on the environment. This is to be achieved by making best use of the existing network and introducing targeted schemes where improvements are required so as to deliver a reliable and readily usable transport network to benefit local business, encourage further economic growth and allow access for all to everyday facilities.

2.9 External Drivers for Change

2.9.1 Traffic Congestion The need to address increasing traffic congestion and delays on the A120 through Little Hadham is the primary driver of the proposed scheme. The planned growth of housing in Uttlesford and Bishop’s Stortford plus the possible increase in passengers at Stansted Airport up to approved levels supports the assertion that the

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

existing problems are likely to worsen in future. There is a local demand for the proposed scheme; the MP for the area, Oliver Heald, wrote to the county council in April 2013 to ask them to consider the bypass a priority transport scheme based on the feelings of local residents that the current situation is untenable. There are also local concerns about safety and while this is not a primary driver, there are accidents due to long queues and blind hills that might be prevented if the queues were reduced. There has also been a recent letter of support in 2013 for the scheme from Little Hadham Parish.

2.9.2 Flooding Little Hadham and Hadham Ford have suffered flooding from the River Ash on several occasions, including a number of recorded flood events between 2001- 2012. See Figure 7.

Figure 7: Flood Events (data from Environment Agency for information only) The Environment Agency’s modelling of the river indicates that 48 properties in Little Hadham and Hadham Ford are at risk from a 1% (1 in 100) chance of flooding in any year. There are also some properties at risk of flooding from Lloyd Taylor Drain and Albury Tributary which join the River Ash in the centre of Little Hadham. The modelled risk is shown in Figure 8.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

Figure 8: Modelled Flood Risk (data from Environment Agency for information only) Following the flooding in October 2001 the Environment Agency undertook the River Ash Flood Risk Management Strategy to examine the extent of flooding along the river and evaluate potential solutions. Unfortunately the study concluded that flood alleviation measures for the River Ash would not meet the minimum criteria for Defra Flood Defence Grant in Aid at that time. However, by incorporating flood alleviation measures into the bypass proposals the flood scheme is more cost beneficial. In addition, the new Partnership Funding approach to flood and coastal erosion risk management projects means there is an opportunity to re-investigate funding available for the scheme. The Environment Agency used modelling from the River Ash Flood Risk Management Strategy Study to assess the benefit of using the road embankments of the northern bypass routes for flood storage. It estimated that 47 residential properties would have a reduced risk of flooding. By protecting these properties this could prevent an estimated £3 million worth of flood damages. As the project progresses the details of the flood alleviation scheme and benefits to properties in Little Hadham and Hadham Ford will be updated following further assessment of the flood model.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

2.10 Need and Objectives The need for the scheme has been driven by several factors:  Concern within the county council that the traffic signals and nature of the A120 in Little Hadham is constraining traffic to a degree unacceptable on a primary route;  Pressure from the public and commercial interests in respect of congestion;  Substantial planned growth in residential and commercial development in the county plus possible growth of Stansted Airport to permitted passenger throughput levels; and  Impact on economic performance due to uncertainty of journey times. The objectives are: 1. To decrease the journey time along the A120 between Bishop’s Stortford and the A10 by providing a local bypass at Little Hadham in scale with the other sections of the route by 2019. 2. To reduce the risk of fluvial flooding in Little Hadham and communities to the south by working with the Environment Agency to deliver integral flood attenuation areas as part of the delivery of the bypass. 3. To reduce severance in the centre of Little Hadham by removal of the majority of the through traffic congestion and, as a result, improving the overall well-being of residents in Little Hadham. These objectives will be reviewed during the project lifetime and will form the basis for the Monitoring and Evaluation Plan (Section 6.16).

2.11 Scope The scheme is to construct a 3.9km bypass of Little Hadham village to alleviate traffic congestion and delays, support planned commercial and housing growth in the area and mitigate flooding of the River Ash in Little Hadham and communities to the south. The scheme does not include an upgrading of the overall route standard to dual carriageway. Recent traffic data confirms that the levels of traffic on the A120 in Little Hadham would not require a dual carriageway standard. Automatic Traffic Counts undertaken on the A120 to the west of Little Hadham in May and June 2013 give an average daily two way flow of around 14,000 vehicles. Data from the permanent monitoring site to the east of Little Hadham between September 2012 and September 2013 gives an Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) flow of just over 15,000 vehicles. The Congestion Reference Flow (CRF) for the A120 has been calculated as just over 27,000 vehicles. The CRF is the point above which flow breakdown, queuing and reduced throughput will occur. This suggests that the traffic would need to almost double from current levels before a dual carriageway was required on this section of the A120. Not all of the traffic on the existing A120 would transfer to the bypass as some is local traffic. The forecast AADT for the bypass in 2034 (15 years after opening), based on the existing AADT for the A120 with standard growth rates applied and a

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

proportion diverting to the bypass based on current proportions of through traffic, is just under 14,000 vehicles per day, which is just over half of the CRF. A single carriageway standard is therefore considered to be sufficient to accommodate the forecast volumes of traffic. Even if all of the current A120 traffic were to transfer to the bypass, the AADT of around 19,500 in 2015 would still be less than the CRF value and therefore a dual carriageway would not be required. Whilst the scheme includes flood storage areas to mitigate flooding from the River Ash and its tributaries, it will not address any issues with drainage and resulting surface water flooding on existing roads in Little Hadham. A bypass of Standon village to the west of the proposed scheme is not included, as per the decision in June 2008 by the Highways and Transport Panel. The Panel indicated at that time that a bypass of Standon would be considered for the future and prioritised in line with county priorities and available funding options. (The current funding period is 2015 – 2019).

2.12 Constraints The proposed scheme will have environmental impacts that will need to be assessed and managed according to statutory requirements. An Environmental Impact Assessment will be required and is programmed to be undertaken after the decision to proceed by the accountable body (Hertfordshire County Council). Initial environmental surveys and associated work that has been undertaken has not identified any significant environmental factors although the proposed scheme will be constrained by the requirements to manage and or mitigate environmental impacts. It is necessary to acquire third party land for the scheme to proceed. Such land might be acquired by negotiation with landowners, although Compulsory Purchase Order procedures and a Public Inquiry may be required and have been accounted for in programme terms.

2.13 Inter-dependencies There are internal and external factors upon which the successful delivery of project is dependent. The proposed scheme conforms with priorities set by the national, regional and local policy environments. Successful delivery will require continued alignment with policy priorities and subsequent political support. Delivery of the proposed scheme is dependent on securing funding from sources external to the county council, the project sponsor. The current arrangements as set out by the Government are still evolving but would see the project sponsor applying to the Local Transport Body for funding that originates from the Department for Transport. However, the Hertfordshire LTB’s allocation of £18.5 million is insufficient to fund the scheme and thus the county council will seek additional funds to cover the difference between the total scheme costs and Hertfordshire’s LTB funding allocation from the Local Enterprise Partnership’s access to the Single Local Growth Fund. There is also some funding (£0.25m in 2008 prices) available from the Section 106 agreement with Stansted Airport (provided certain conditions are met) and, for the flood alleviation scheme, from funding sourced via the Environment Agency and from the Thames Regional Flood and Coastal Committee (RFCC) in the order of approximately £1 million. The Thames RFCC sub-committee recommended in their meeting of 07 November 1.0 | Issue 3 | 27 February 2014 Page 28 J:\225000\225805-00 HCC CST\225805-31\4 INTERNAL PROJECT DATA\4-05 REPORTS\A120 LITTLE HADHAM BYPASS\A120 BUSINESS CASE REPORT\UPDATES POST DECEMBER SUBMISSION\A120 BUSINESS CASE_ISSUE 3 27.02.14.DOCX

Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

2013 to support the funding of the flood alleviation scheme. Further contributions towards the Flood Alleviation Scheme will be sought by the Environment Agency.

2.14 Stakeholders This section outlines the main stakeholder groups and their contribution to the project as well as any potential conflicts between different stakeholder groups and their demands. The key stakeholders in the scheme are: Hertfordshire County Council is the highway authority and project sponsor for the transport element. The scheme’s management and development is the responsibility of the authority’s Major Projects Group within Highways. Hertfordshire is the planning authority for transport schemes. East Herts District Council is supportive of the proposed scheme and is responsible for the Local Development Framework and is the local planning authority for Little Hadham for new development in the local area. Little Hadham Parish Council is supportive of the proposed scheme and in September 2013 confirmed its support for the Little Hadham bypass as agreed in April 2007 and September 2009. The Environment Agency has a strategic overview of flood risk and is responsible for the management of fluvial flood risk. The Environment Agency is a contributor of funding to enable flood alleviation measures to be incorporated within the proposed scheme. The Environment Agency will be a joint sponsor for the flood alleviation measures and will maintain the flood storage area and the water control structures after the scheme is built. Manchester Airports Group, the owner and operator of Stansted Airport. Stansted Airport is a contributor of S106 funding towards the scheme. The Highways Agency is responsible for trunk roads and motorways. The A120 is used to take diverted traffic when the M25/M11 are closed. Local Community and Environmental Groups are likely to represent a variety of views. Public consultations carried out by the county council during the options assessment process revealed an overall level of support for the scheme amongst respondents although a minority were shown to be against a bypass. Local Residents of Little Hadham will benefit from improved environmental conditions and reduced severance within the village and improved journey times if they are motorists. A number of properties will benefit from the flood alleviation element of the scheme. Local Residents of Standon will also benefit from improved journey times should they use the A120 to the east of their village. Concerns from some residents of Standon have been raised regarding the likelihood of motorists wishing to turn onto the A120 finding adequate gaps in the westbound traffic stream in future when traffic will not be interrupted by the traffic lights in Little Hadham. In 2008, during scheme development, research was undertaken into the characteristics of traffic flow and platooning effects, that is, the effect that the signal might have on gaps in traffic. This indicated that platoons of traffic forming at the Little Hadham traffic signals would be expected to largely disperse by the time they reach Standon (some

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

5.5km from the Little Hadham signals) and would not be significantly different from an uninterrupted stream, such as may be expected from the proposed bypass, given the steep gradient on the single carriageway and the various right turns that occur prior to reaching Standon. The county council made a commitment, when the in principal agreement to the alignment of the Little Hadham Bypass was made, to look at impacts in Standon. That work will be progressed and will be made available prior to more detailed discussions that will have to take place if, and when, the Little Hadham Bypass is agreed for funding.

2.15 Measures of Success This section sets out what constitutes successful delivery of the objectives for the proposed scheme:  A decrease the journey times along the A120 between Bishop’s Stortford and the A10;  The provision of a local bypass at Little Hadham in scale with the other sections of the route;  The opening of the bypass by 2019;  A reduction in the risk of fluvial flooding in Little Hadham and communities to the south;  A reduction in severance in the centre of Little Hadham caused by traffic; and  An improvement to the overall well-being of residents in Little Hadham.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

3 The Economic Case

3.1 Introduction The economic case demonstrates the value for money in the use of taxpayers’ money for the scheme. The impacts considered are not limited to those directly impacting on the measured economy, nor to those which can be monetised. The economic, environmental, social and distributional impacts of a proposal are examined, using qualitative, quantitative and monetised information. This determines the extent to which the scheme’s benefits outweigh its costs. The current situation results in delays to road users as a result of the capacity restraints and traffic signals in the village of Little Hadham. Long queues occur at the traffic signals, particularly during the peak hours. The proposed bypass would relieve this congestion and reduce travel time as set out below. A strategic traffic model was used to assess the impacts of the scheme during the option appraisal stage of the project’s development and has not been rerun for the business case due to time limitations (see section 2.5.4 above for more information about the previous modelling work). However, it is proposed that a model would be run and the outputs used to carry out a final economic appraisal using TUBA13 before the application for planning permission, currently anticipated in 2015. The economic appraisal for the business case has therefore been carried out in a spreadsheet using WebTAG inputs and assumptions and information from traffic surveys (see Section 3.3.1). Strategic traffic reassignments and induced traffic has not been considered in this appraisal which may reduce the benefits slightly, although as parallel routes are some distance away there is not likely to be a large volume of reassignment.

3.2 Options Appraised A strategic assessment was carried out of options for the A120. These options were: A. Local improvements in the centre of the village of Little Hadham B. A local bypass to Little Hadham C. Upgrading A120 between A10 and M11 to a local standard i.e. single carriageway (by providing local bypasses to Little Hadham and Standon) D. Upgrading the A120 between A10 and M11 to dual carriageway E. Alternative east-west routes for strategic movements F. Alternative transport solutions.

13 DfT’s Transport User Benefits Appraisal

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

The initial assessment, in March 2006, conforming to NATA/GOMMMS14 principles identified the preferred option as B, with Option C (including a bypass at Standon) being the second best option. Six route options were then developed for a bypass to Little Hadham. These were tested in the East of England Regional Model and the results of the modelling used to carry out an economic appraisal for the options in 2007. Of these options, Option 5 was selected as the preferred option. Whilst it had the highest scheme costs and lowest Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), all options gave a high return on the investment and the BCR of 7.3 for Option 5 is categorised as giving very high value for money (as it was greater than 4). Option 5 was the most preferred option by the public, and had the support of East Herts District Council and Little Hadham Parish Council. It creates the greatest benefit to the village centre and as it passes to the north of the village, it does not sever the village as the southern options do. The decision on the preferred route option took into account the consultation results as well as the technical input and other inputs in coming to the final conclusions. Following the selection of the preferred option, further revisions were made to the alignment of Option 5. All of the options considered for the revised preferred option produced slightly better benefits than the original Option 5. The final preferred alignment moved the junction with the A120 approximately 650m to the east at the west end and used Option 5B, moving the route away from Hadham Lodge, at the east end. This gave a BCR of 7.86 using the revised costs for this option, although the model was not rerun with the final option. The final preferred option has not been altered in the current work on the scheme, but the costs and benefits have been updated based on the latest information.

3.3 Costs

3.3.1 Scheme Costs The scheme cost estimate is shown in Table 3 below.

Cost (£m) Q2 2013 Stage 1: Scheme Development £0.31m Stage 2: Statutory Procedures £1.22m Stage 3: Procurement £0.10m Stage 4: Design and Construction £20.95m Risk Contingency £3.81m Total estimated construction cost £26.39m Optimism Bias (30%) £7.92m Total cost including Optimism Bias £34.32m Table 3: A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Cost Estimate

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

The construction cost estimate includes an allowance of £0.94m for the flood alleviation scheme comprising inlet structure, outlet structure, stepped concrete spillway, culvert, spillway culvert and earthworks embankment.

3.3.1.1 Risk Contingency An on-going risk and opportunities assessment has been carried out. The semi- quantitative assessments of risk probability and severity have been reviewed to determine the need for appropriate risk responses and also the scope of a Quantified Risk Assessment. All significant capital cost and schedule risks have been modelled in @RISK and Pertmaster respectively, in order to quantify suitable contingencies. Risk exposure has been assessed both before and after accounting for the benefit of risk response measures. The subsequent mean contingency sum of £3.81 million (around 17% of the scheme costs) has been applied to the scheme costs profile. Section 6.13 below provides details of risk assessment and management. The Construction Risk and Opportunities Register is provided in Appendix B.

3.3.1.2 Optimism Bias WebTAG (Unit 3.5.9, August 2012) allows for a reduction from the recommended uplift of 44% dependent on the stage of scheme development, quality of risk assessment and extent to which optimism bias has been mitigated. The Highways Agency’s tool has been used to assess these elements for this scheme and indicates an appropriate uplift of 30% which has been applied to the economic appraisal. The Highways Agency tool is provided in Appendix C.

3.3.2 Deflation of Costs for Economic Appraisal In the remainder of this chapter, which gives details of the economic appraisal, costs used, including risk allowance and optimism bias, are deflated to 2010 prices using the Retail Price Index. This is in line with WebTAG guidance and provides consistency with other inputs and the Department for Transport’s standard base year. The Retail Price Index has been used to deflate the prices as this is the index used as the deflator in the DfT’s TUBA software. Within the economic appraisal, costs incurred by the county council in preparing the scheme up to the end of July 2014 (when the final funding should be approved) are considered to be sunk costs in line with WebTAG 3.5.9 (August 2012) as they have been spent prior to scheme approval. The total scheme cost for the purposes of the economic appraisal in 2010 prices and including Optimism Bias is £30.60 million.

3.3.3 Maintenance Costs The maintenance profile has been taken from the QUADRO15 manual (DMRB Volume 14 Section 1 Part 2 Chapter 4) for a Single (2+1) Lane new road. These rates have been inflated from 2002 to 2010 prices using the Retail Price Index for

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

consistency with other inputs to the economic appraisal. The rates are shown in Table 4 below.

Year 0 11 22 32 42 52 Single (2+1) Lane Works TS Ov TS Ov In Initial flow 19,000 Cost (£000 per km, 102 381 102 400 165 AADT 2010 prices) TS: Thin surfacing Ov: Overlay In: Inlay Table 4: Maintenance Profile The maintenance rates per kilometre have been applied to the length of the bypass to give a total maintenance cost for each year. There may be some minor savings in maintenance costs for the existing A120 through Little Hadham due to the removal of through traffic and the downgrading of the road status. These have not been quantified as any changes to the maintenance costs would not be large.

3.4 Traffic Data Sources Traffic survey data was collected on the A120 to give an up to date assessment of the current traffic situation in the area. The data collected is summarised below with comments on any relevant issues as appropriate. Data from a permanent Automatic Traffic Count site maintained by the county council has been used to provide annual traffic data for the A120. Where data was collected on a single day, this was undertaken on Thursday 9 May 2013. The date was chosen as being midweek, during school term time and in a neutral month. Checks have been made to ensure that this day is representative. A comparison was made between the traffic volume on 9 May against the average traffic for the whole of May 2013 and the Annual Average Weekday Traffic (AAWT) for the year from September 2012-September 2013. This is summarised in Table 5.

9 May May 2013 % AAWT % AAWT 2012- % 2013 weekdays variation 2012- variation 2013 excluding variation excluding vs May 2013 vs Bank Holidays vs Bank 2013 AAWT and Christmas adjusted Holidays period AAWT AM peak 558 551 +1% 530 +5% 550 +1% hour Eastbound AM peak 725 685 +6% 631 +15% 652 +11% hour Westbound PM peak 650 636 +2% 614 +6% 625 +4% hour Eastbound PM peak 717 707 +1% 672 +7% 688 +4% hour Westbound Table 5: Comparison of traffic data

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

This shows that when compared against all May weekdays (except Bank Holidays), the traffic flow on the survey day was within 3% in both directions in the PM and in the Eastbound direction in the AM. Comparing against the AAWT flow when Bank Holidays and the period between Christmas and New Year is excluded, traffic flows on the survey day are within 5% with the exception of the Westbound direction in the AM when there was a difference of 11%. The traffic flows on the day of the survey are therefore considered to be representative of traffic on the A120 throughout the year.

3.4.1 Automatic Traffic Count data One Automatic Traffic Count (ATC) was undertaken on the A120 to the west of Little Hadham as shown in Figure 9. Data was collected for two 7 day periods; from 9 to 15 May and from 8 to 14 June. Data is broken down by vehicle type and direction.

Figure 9: ATC site The average 7 day traffic flow in the eastbound direction was 7,021 in May and 7,044 in June and for the westbound direction was 6,757 in May and 6,864 in June. The county council also has a permanent ATC site to the east of Little Hadham. Data from the period 20 September 2012 to 19 September 2013 was used to calculate average annual traffic flows. At this site, the AADT over this period was 7,484 vehicles in the eastbound direction and 7,652 vehicles in the westbound direction. The 24 hour AAWT was 7,989 in the eastbound direction and 8,244 in the westbound direction.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

3.4.2 Manual Classified Count and Queue Length Data One Manual Classified Count was undertaken at the signalised junction in Little Hadham. Data was collected from 0700-1900 on Thursday 9 May. Data is recorded in 15 minute segments and classified by vehicle type. Queue lengths have been recorded as the maximum queue length in metres in each 5 minute interval. The queue length surveys show extensive queuing. In the eastbound direction on the A120, the queue extended at least 240m from 0725 to 0840 and again from 1610 to 1830. The queue was over 100m for the vast majority of the 12 hour period. Similarly in the westbound direction, the queue was at least 235m from 0710 to 0945 and again from 1600 to 1810 (with the exception of one 5 minute period when it was 205m), and was over 100m for almost all of the day.

3.4.3 Journey Time Surveys Journey time surveys were undertaken in both directions on the A120 with the timing points as shown in Figure 10. The surveys were undertaken on Thursday 9 May.

Figure 10: Journey time survey timing points Four runs in each direction were undertaken in each of the AM and PM peak hours. Eight runs in both directions were undertaken in the Inter Peak (IP). These were averaged to give a journey time along the route as shown in Table 6.

Direction AM IP PM Eastbound 11 min 57 sec 5 min 13 sec 11 min 44 sec Westbound 11 min 56 sec 5 min 4 sec 10 min 19 sec Table 6: Journey Times

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

This indicates an average delay of between 5 and 7 minutes in the peak hours compared to the Inter Peak.

3.4.4 Number Plate Matching Survey A number plate matching survey was undertaken over 12 hours (0700-1900) to indicate the proportion of traffic passing through Little Hadham that would be likely to divert to the new bypass when it is open. The survey was undertaken on Thursday 9 May. This showed that in the eastbound direction, 74% of the vehicles recorded to the west of Little Hadham continued to the Bishop’s Stortford roundabout, whilst in the westbound direction 61% of the vehicles recorded to the west of the Bishop’s Stortford roundabout continued through Little Hadham.

3.5 Growth Base year (2012-3) traffic has been taken from the permanent ATC site to the east of Little Hadham over the period 20 September 2012 to 19 September 2013. The annual data from the permanent ATC site was selected as it is based on a greater number of daily observations than the one week ATC carried out. Growth factors have been applied for the forecast years of 2019 (opening year), 2024 and 2034. These forecast years have been chosen as the opening year, 15 years post opening (this is the design year in DMRB guidance and fits with WebTAG’s requirement that a forecast year would usually 10-15 years after opening), and an intermediate year, with 5 years post opening being a year often used by Local Authorities. The growth factors are based on NTM16 adjusted for local Hertfordshire growth rates from TEMPRO. The A120 is within East Herts Council’s area from its origin at the A10 north of Ware through to the east side of Bishop’s Stortford and including the area around Little Hadham subject to the scheme. The local authority boundary runs around the edge of Bishop’s Stortford meaning that the rest of the A120 to the east lies within Essex. TEMPRO growth is considerably higher in Essex than in East Hertfordshire while Hertfordshire as a whole is somewhere between the two as shown in Table 7. The A120 is clearly very heavily used and is a major strategic route into Hertfordshire from the east. East Hertfordshire growth may underestimate the benefits because the route is strategic rather than just serving East Hertfordshire and therefore Hertfordshire growth factors were used as representing the best information available.

2019 2024 2034 Essex 1.083 1.174 1.334 Hertfordshire 1.078 1.161 1.293 East Hertfordshire 1.058 1.120 1.216 Table 7: TEMPRO adjusted NTM growth factors from 2013 by area

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

However, it should be noted that in the Do Minimum scenario, it is likely that growth will be suppressed by the congestion currently occurring in Little Hadham. Sensitivity tests using zero/suppressed growth and high growth have been included in the economic analysis (see Section 3.9). The factors used in the appraisal are shown in Table 8.

From To AM IP PM Average day 2013 2019 1.075 1.0875 1.075 1.079 2013 2024 1.152 1.1836 1.154 1.163 2013 2034 1.270 1.3447 1.276 1.296 Table 8: TEMPRO adjusted NTM growth factors for Hertfordshire To calculate the traffic flows on the bypass, information was used from an ANPR17 survey conducted in May 2013 which showed that in the eastbound direction 74% of traffic was through traffic, and in the westbound 61%. All of this through traffic was assumed to switch to the bypass with the scheme, with the remaining traffic continuing to use the current A120 in to the village. The existing and forecast traffic flows in the scenarios with and without the bypass are shown in Table 9.

2013 2019 2024 2034 AIP P A IP P A IP P A IP P M M M M M M M M A120 E 530 488 614 569 531 661 610 578 709 673 656 784 B W 631 474 672 678 515 723 727 560 776 801 637 858

Do Do Minimum B Bypass E 423 395 491 453 429 527 500 488 583 B W 414 315 441 444 342 474 489 389 524 B Existing E 146 136 170 157 148 182 173 168 201 A120 B W 264 200 281 283 218 302 312 248 334

Do Something Do Something B Table 9: A120 traffic flows

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

3.6 Benefits

3.6.1 Scope of benefit assessment

3.6.1.1 Time periods For all benefits except for accident benefits, calculations are based on 0700-1900 on weekdays only. Journey time information was not collected for the 1900-0700 period or at weekends, and as traffic is lower at these times it was not considered appropriate to factor the results from day time on a weekday to represent these periods. Calculations were made for the AM (0800-0900), IP (1300-1400) and PM (1700- 1800) peak hours and factored to each of the three periods based on the traffic relative to the peak hour, based on the annual traffic information. These time factors are:  AM peak hour to period (0700-1000) 2.93  IP hour to period (1000-1600) 6.15  PM peak hour to period (1600-1900) 2.85 The annualisation factor applied is 253, representing all weekdays excluding Bank Holidays. It is therefore likely that benefits will be higher than those calculated as there will be some benefits during evenings and weekends, but a conservative approach has been taken as information on these periods is limited. For accident benefits, the AADT traffic figure has been annualised using a factor of 365; therefore the full year of benefits have been included.

3.6.1.2 Coverage Benefits have been calculated for the section of the existing A120 which will be bypassed by the scheme and for the bypass itself. Benefits have not been calculated for the minor arms of the signalised junction in Little Hadham. Whilst it is likely traffic using these arms would benefit, as they currently experience queues, only limited traffic information is available from a one day Manual Classified Count and queue length survey. Peak hour traffic on the minor arms is 108 vehicles in the AM peak hour and 88 vehicles in the PM peak hour on Albury Road north of the junction, and 58 vehicles in the AM and 109 in the PM on Albury Road south of the junction. The MOVA control on the signals at the junction allows for green times of up to 13 seconds in the AM peak for the south arm and up to 18 seconds for the north arm. As the total cycle time at the junction can be as long as five minutes, the delays experienced by traffic on these arms are likely to be significant. With the scheme, whilst some delay would still remain as with the signals removed, minor arm traffic would need to wait for a gap in the traffic to join the A120, these delays are likely to be much less than with the current cycle times. The approach taken is therefore conservative.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

3.6.1.3 Appraisal period The appraisal has been carried out over a period of 60 years from scheme opening in line with WebTAG guidance. Benefits have been calculated for three forecast years, 2019, 2024 and 2034. Benefits have been interpolated linearly between these years, and beyond the final year the benefits are extrapolated using a horizontal line (before any real increases in the value of the benefits are applied). This is consistent with the approach used by TUBA18.

3.6.2 Time saving benefits

3.6.2.1 Journey times – Do Minimum scenario Journey time surveys were carried out on the A120 in May 2013 as described in Section 3.4.3. The average journey time between the timing points closest to the locations where the bypass will join the existing A120 was calculated. The journey time for this 3.3km section was used as the Do Minimum journey time. These journey times are shown in Table 1019. The journey time surveys are based on a single day only. Local reports suggest that on occasion the queues from the traffic lights in Little Hadham extend even further than they did on the day of the survey20. On occasions, journey times would therefore have been longer than indicated here, when queues were up to around 1.3km.

AM IP PM Eastbound 11 min 8 sec 4 min 25 sec 10 min 56 sec Westbound 11 min 8 sec 4 min 18 sec 9 min 32 sec Table 10: Average journey times – Do Minimum scenario The journey times on the existing A120 have been assumed to remain constant over time. In reality, it is likely that queues at the signalised junction and therefore total journey time on the route would increase as traffic grows. The volume of traffic queuing at the signals when the lights turn green during the peak hours already exceeds the number of vehicles that can pass through during the green phase. This results in extensive queuing and any additional traffic demand on the A120 will only extend this queue. The current appraisal is therefore robust as it is likely to be an under-representation of the benefits of the scheme. There may be some suppression of growth on the A120 due to the extent of queuing occurring in Little Hadham discouraging travel.

18 TUBA User Manual, Chapter 9. 19 These journey times differ from those shown in section 3.4.3 as they are based on only the section of the A120 which will be bypassed where the full journey time survey route extended to the roundabout to the west of Bishop’s Stortford 20 A letter sent to Hertfordshire County Council in September 2013 by an Albury End resident in relation to the Bishop’s Stortford North development refers to queues on the approaches to the lights typically being 1.5km long in the peak periods, and a queue of 2km in both directions on the evening of 4 September 2013. It also reports that queues of 3km or more have been observed when there are problems on the M11 or M25 and that these incidents occur on average once a week. 1.0 | Issue 3 | 27 February 2014 Page 40 J:\225000\225805-00 HCC CST\225805-31\4 INTERNAL PROJECT DATA\4-05 REPORTS\A120 LITTLE HADHAM BYPASS\A120 BUSINESS CASE REPORT\UPDATES POST DECEMBER SUBMISSION\A120 BUSINESS CASE_ISSUE 3 27.02.14.DOCX

Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

Future year delays at the junction could be assessed using LINSIG21, but currently a conservative approach of constant journey times has been taken.

3.6.2.2 Journey times – Do Something scenario Journey times in the Do Something scenario with the bypass constructed have been calculated using speed flow curves. Speed flow curves were taken from DMRB volume 13 Section 1 chapter 5. For the bypass the speed flow curve for a rural single carriageway road was used, and for the current A120 through Little Hadham the speed flow curve for a small town road was used (appropriate for villages) for the section with a 30 or 40mph speed limit and the rural single carriageway speed flow curve for the 60mph speed limit section. Default values were used for the geometric inputs to the speed flow formulas. The bypass includes new roundabouts at each end to connect with the existing A120. To allow for the additional time taken to travel through the roundabouts compared with the speed flow curve speed, ARCADY22 models were run of each roundabout. The average delay per vehicle for each arm of the roundabout was calculated. It was also assumed that over the 150m on the approach to and travelling away from each roundabout the average speed would reduce to 30mph to allow for deceleration and acceleration. The journey times calculated on the current A120 assume that the scheme will include the removal of the existing traffic signals. No further adjustments have been made to the journey times on the current A120 to reflect the proposed traffic calming scheme. The total journey times with the scheme in the opening year of 2019, assuming the traffic lights are removed for the current A120 and based on applying a speed flow curve on both the existing A120 and the bypass, are shown in Table 11.

AM IP PM Bypass Eastbound 3 min 14 sec 3 min 13 sec 3 min 17 sec Westbound 3 min 14 sec 3 min 10 sec 3 min 15 sec Current A120 Eastbound 3 min 41 sec 3 min 40 sec 3 min 42 sec Westbound 3 min 45 sec 3 min 42 sec 3 min 46 sec Table 11: Average journey times – Do Something scenario The average journey time savings resulting from the bypass in the opening year of 2019 are shown in Table 12.

AM IP PM Bypass Eastbound 7 min 53 sec 1 min 11 sec 7 min 39 sec Westbound 7 min 54 sec 1 min 7 sec 6 min 17 sec Current A120 Eastbound 7 min 26 sec 0 min 44 sec 7 min 14 sec Westbound 7 min 22 sec 0 min 35 sec 5 min 46 sec Table 12: Average journey time savings compared with Do Minimum scenario

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

The modelling work undertaken in 2007 gave time savings on the A120 of around 5 to 5.5 minutes per vehicle on both the existing A120 and the bypass with the scheme in the then opening year of 2011. Total vehicle hours saved in 2019 are shown in Table 13.

Hourly vehicles Daily vehicles Annual vehicles AM IP PM AM IP PM AM IP PM

Bypass EB 423 395 491 1,239 2,431 1,397 313,491 615,068 353,540 WB 414 315 441 1,213 1,939 1,255 306,821 490,497 317,538 Existing EB 146 136 170 428 837 484 108,203 211,770 122,407 A120 WB 264 200 281 773 1,231 800 195,654 311,427 202,332

Time saving per Total annual time saving (hours) vehicle (min) AM IP PM AM IP PM Total

Bypass EB 7.9 1.2 7.7 41,189 12,131 45,076 98,396 WB 7.9 1.1 6.3 40,398 9,129 33,253 82,780 Existing EB 7.4 0.7 7.2 13,405 2,588 14,757 30,750 A120 WB 7.4 0.6 5.8 24,022 3,028 19,446 46,496 119,014 26,875 112,533 258,423 Table 13: 2019 vehicle hours saved The total annual time saving in the opening year of 2019 is substantial; almost 260,000 vehicle hours.

3.6.3 Monetisation of benefits The journey times in the Do Minimum and Do Something scenarios have been monetised in order to calculate the value of the time savings. In order to do this, values of time have been taken from WebTAG Unit 3.5.6 (August 2012) in 2010 values and adjusted for forecast growth in the real value of time23.Separate values of time have been used for different vehicle types and journey purposes (car business, car commute, car other, LGV, OGV, PSV). The values of time for each year used in the appraisal are shown in Table 14.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

2010 2019 2024 2034 VOT Business - Car driver 33.74 38.50 42.05 50.78 VOT Business - Car passenger 24.17 27.58 30.12 36.38 VOT Commute 6.46 7.18 7.71 8.96 VOT Other 5.71 6.35 6.81 7.92 VOT LGV 13.00 14.83 16.20 19.57 VOT OGV 13.00 14.83 16.20 19.57 VOT PSV driver 13.00 14.83 16.20 19.57 VOT PSV passenger 25.81 29.45 32.17 38.85 Table 14: Values of time (VOT) (£ per hour) The number of vehicle trips calculated for each scenario and year has been broken down into vehicle type using the proportions of cars, LGVs, OGVs and PSVs from a one week ATC in May 2013 by time of day and direction. See Table 15.

Car LGV HGV PSV AM Eastbound 82% 13% 4% 1% Westbound 90% 7% 3% 0% IP Eastbound 78% 14% 7% 1% Westbound 87% 10% 3% 0% PM Eastbound 88% 10% 2% 1% Westbound 94% 5% 1% 0% Table 15: Vehicle proportions Journey purpose splits (Table 16) have been taken from WebTAG Unit 3.5.6 (August 2012) in the absence of any local information for the A120. A sensitivity test on the proportion of business trips assumed has been carried out using the proportion of business trips assumed in the Harlow Stansted Gateway Model (see Section 3.9). This was partly based on household survey information from Bishop’s Stortford and Harlow, and shows a lower proportion of business trips than WebTAG.

Business Commute Other AM 18% 46% 36% IP 20% 11% 69% PM 13% 41% 46% Table 16: Journey purpose splits Occupancy rates24 have then been applied to the number of vehicles in each category as shown in Table 17.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

2010 2019 2024 2034 Car work 1.19 1.18 1.18 1.17 Car commute 1.13 1.13 1.12 1.11 Car other 1.74 1.70 1.68 1.64 Average LGV 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 OGV 1 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 OGV 2 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 PSV driver 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 PSV passenger 12.20 12.20 12.20 12.20 Table 17: Vehicle occupancies The total value of the travel time in the Do Something scenario has then been subtracted from the total value of the travel time in the Do Minimum scenario to give a time saving benefit in each year assessed. Travel time benefits in the opening year of 2019 total £4.4 million.

3.6.4 Vehicle Operating Costs Changes in fuel and non-fuel vehicle operating costs as a result of the scheme have been calculated using the formulas in WebTAG Unit 3.5.6 (August 2012) and average speeds for the existing A120 and the bypass in the Do Minimum and Do Something scenarios by time period and direction. These are based on the journey times as described in Section 4.2. 2 The formula for fuel consumption is L = a/v + b + c.v + d.v where: L = consumption, expressed in litres per kilometre; v = average speed in kilometres per hour; and a, b, c, d are parameters defined for each vehicle category. The formula for the non-fuel elements of VOC is C = a1 + b1/V where: C = cost in pence per kilometre travelled; V = average link speed in kilometres per hour: a1 is a parameter for distance related costs defined for each vehicle category; b1 is a parameter for vehicle capital saving defined for each vehicle category (this parameter is only relevant to working vehicles). The average speeds on the A120 and bypass in each of the forecast years are shown in Table 18.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

AM EB AM PM EB PM IP EB IP WB WB WB DM 2019 19 19 19 22 48 49 2024 19 19 19 22 48 49 2034 19 19 19 22 48 49 DS bypass 2019 72 72 71 72 73 74 2024 72 72 71 72 72 73 2034 71 71 70 71 72 73 DS existing 2019 57 56 57 56 58 57 2024 57 56 57 56 57 57 2034 57 56 57 55 57 56 Table 18: Average speeds (kph) There are vehicle operating cost savings as a result of the increased vehicle speeds with the bypass and therefore reductions in fuel consumption.

3.6.5 Indirect Tax Revenues The change in indirect tax revenues as a result of the scheme has been calculated using the formula in WebTAG Unit 3.5.3 (April 2011) Section 5. There is a loss of indirect tax revenue with the bypass scheme due to the reduced fuel consumption. This is small at around £28,000 in the opening year of 2019.

3.6.6 Carbon Dioxide Emissions To calculate the change in carbon dioxide emissions as a result of the scheme, values for the emissions of carbon dioxide per litre of fuel burnt for petrol and diesel by year have been taken from WebTAG Unit 3.3.5 (February 2013) Table 1. These have been used with the calculation of total fuel consumption from the vehicle operating cost calculations and the central value per tonne of non-traded carbon dioxide25 to calculate the value of the change in carbon emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions reduce with the scheme as a result of the reduced fuel consumption with higher vehicle speeds.

3.6.7 Accidents Observed personal injury accident (PIA) data for the five year period from 1 December 2007 to 30 November 2012 for the A120 was supplied by the county council. This showed a total of 10 accidents occurring over this period on the section of the A120 which would be bypassed, two on the section with a 60mph speed limit and eight on the section with a 30 or 40mph speed limit. Using AADT traffic figures for 2012 based on data from the ATC site to the west of Little Hadham, this shows the following accident rates. This is compared with the COBA accident rate for this type of road adjusted to 2012; Table 19.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

Speed limit Observed injury COBA rate per accidents per million million vehicle vehicle km km 60mph 0.046 0.282 30/40mph 0.177 0.707 Table 19: Observed and COBA accident rates on the A120 Observed accident rates are considerably lower than those predicted by COBA. In the Do Something scenario, the COBA accident rate for a modern S2 A road is assumed to apply (0.217 PIA/mvkm in 2012). For the current A120 through Little Hadham it is assumed that the COBA rates for an older S2 A road would apply as shown in Table 6 above as the observed accident rate can no longer be assumed to apply with a substantial change to the traffic using this section of the road and to the junction in the village. These accident rates have been adjusted for each forecast year using the change rates shown in the COBA Manual for the appropriate road type. The total vehicle kilometres on each section of road has been calculated using the forecast AADT and the accident rate applied to calculate a number of accidents occurring in each scenario. The value per personal injury accident saved of £72,094 has been taken from WebTAG Unit 3.4.1 (August 2012) Table 3 and is assumed to grow in line with Gross Domestic Product per capita using values from WebTAG Unit 3.5.6 (August 2012) Table 3. This value has been applied to the change in the number of accidents in each forecast year. Overall there are accident disbenefits with the scheme due to the increased vehicle kilometres travelled and the accident rates reverting to COBA rates which are higher than those currently observed on the A120. There are around four additional Personal Injury Accidents per year based on the predictions from this analysis. Given the slow moving and queuing traffic in Little Hadham due to the traffic lights, it is likely that minor accidents such as vehicle shunts occur in the queues which are not reflected in the accident numbers here as they do not result in injury. Whilst it is not possible to quantify as records are not kept of damage only accidents, it is likely that there will be a benefit from reducing these minor accidents. However, there could also be some additional accidents to traffic turning out from minor roads onto the A120 with the scheme, as these vehicles currently are able to use gaps in traffic caused by the signals to make their manoeuvre.

3.7 Appraisal Summary Table The Appraisal Summary Table for the scheme is shown below. The methodology used and results from the environmental appraisals carried out to complete the Appraisal Summary Table are provided in Appendix D.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

Appraisal Summary Table Date produced: 11 12 13 Contact:

Name of scheme: A120 Little Hadham Bypass Name Alissa Ede Description of scheme: 3.9km bypass to the north of the village of Little Hadham in Hertfordshire. Includes a flood alleviation scheme Organisation Hertfordshire County Council Role Promoter/Official Impacts Summary of key impacts Assessment Quantitative Qualitative Monetary Distributional £(NPV) 7-pt scale/ vulnerable grp Business users & transport The junction in Little Hadham currently experiences long delays. The bypass w ill remove £123.9 Value of journey time changes(£) providers this congestion resulting in large journey time savings and vehicle operating cost savings m Large due to increased speeds Net journey time changes (£) £125.5m beneficial

Economy 0 to 2min 2 to 5min > 5min £14.7m £0m £109.2m Reliability impact on The long cycle time at the traffic lights in Little Hadham and the large queues result in Business users variability of journey times for road users. Journey times can be variable even outside of Large N/A N/A the peak hours due to the signal timings. The bypass w ould provide a more reliable beneficial journey time. Regeneration Scheme is not located in a regeneration area N/A Neutral N/A

Wider Impacts The junction in Little Hadham has been identified as a congested junction on a key route. The bypass w ill remove this congestion and help to facilitate economic development and Moderate N/A N/A housing grow th, particulary in nearby Bishop's Stortford and Stansted Airport. beneficial

Noise Due to the nature of the bypass, substantial traffic flow s still remain along the A120 and therefore noise exposure to dw ellings along this route remains similar w ith and w ithout Net difference in people annoyed in the longer term as a Net present value the scheme. It is on this basis that a net gain has not been achieved in the ‘do something’ result of the scheme, compared to the Do-Minimum of noise proposal scenario. An increase in average traffic speeds along the A120 in the ‘do something’ situation scenario in the 15th year = 3. (60 year period):.- scenario influences the noise exposure level attributing to the increase. £266,499. Air Quality The scheme w ill reduce traff ic in the village of Little Hadham, reducing emissions. It w ill Environmental also remove the queues currently experienced in the village and associated emissions. Air quality w ould be improved (reduced pollutant The proposed scheme is anticipated to lead to an overall improvement in air quality concentrations) at properties for both NO2 and PM10 N/A (exposure to PM10 and NO2 concentrations) and it does not affect any Air Quality concentrations. Management Areas (AQMAs). Greenhouse gases Total CO2 emissions are expected to decrease w ith the operation of the proposed Change in non-traded carbon over 60y (CO2e) 66,484 approximately £3 scheme. Change in traded carbon over 60y (CO2e) million Landscape There w ill be a slight adverse impact on Little Hadham and individual farmsteads and private houses adjacent to the route along w ith limited indirect visual impact from existing housing tow ards proposed route. At the eastern and w estern extents w here the alignment meets the A120 there w ill be a moderate adverse intrusion at Hadham Park, Hadham Lodge, Savernake and Plantings Cottages. Generally any potential impact of the N/A Slight adv erse N/A alignment has been reduced through careful positioning of both the vertical and horizontal road design w hich w hen coupled w ith the integrated landscape mitigation proposals contribute to filtering adverse visual impacts on the identified residential and commercial dw ellings Tow nscape There w ill be moderate beneficial impact on the settlement of Little Hadham and individual Moderate farmsteads and private houses adjacent to the route and limited indirect visual impact N/A N/A beneficial from existing housing along route. Heritage of Historic This assessment is considered to pose a Moderate adverse overall impact, based upon Moderate N/A N/A resources desk-based information and professional judgement alone. adverse Biodiversity The appraisal has identified that there is likely to be slight adverse effects to the hedgerow netw ork and w atercourses along the alignment. Further ecological surveys N/A Slight adv erse N/A are recommended to further inform the assessment. Water Environment The unmitigated scheme w ould have a significant impact on the surface and groundw ater environment as surface w ater discharges w ould increase potentially increasing dow nstream flood risk, floodplain storage across the River Ash system and there w ould be a detrimental effect on w ater quality and groundw ater quality. How ever, by incorporating sustainable drainage and taking due regards of the underlying principle aquifer (limiting infiltration using liners) the impact of the receiving ground and surface w aters can be strictly limited in such a w ay that the impact w ould be minor. N/A Slight beneficial N/A As a result of the flood mitigation measures w hich form part of the scheme, it is estimated that 53 residential properties w ould have a reduced risk of flooding, 15 of w hich w ould no longer be at risk from a 1% (1:100) chance of flooding in any year. Whilst there are slight adverse impacts to the surface and groundw ater environment, these are balanced by the beneficial impacts of the flood mitigation measures that form part of the scheme, resulting in an overall rating of slight beneficial.

Commuting and Other users The junction in Little Hadham currently experiences long delays. The bypass w ill remove £111.8 Value of journey time changes(£) this congestion resulting in large journey time savings and vehicle operating cost savings m Large Social due to increased speeds Net journey time changes (£) £113.7m beneficial 0 to 2min 2 to 5min > 5min £11.5m £0m £100.3m Reliability impact on The long cycle time at the traffic lights in Little Hadham and the large queues result in Commuting and Other users variability of journey times for road users. Journey times can be variable even outside of Large N/A N/A the peak hours due to the signal timings. The bypass w ould provide a more reliable beneficial journey time. Physical activity It is considered unlikely that the number and length of journeys, either w ithin Little Hadham for cyclists and pedestrians or through Little Hadham f or cyclists, w ill change N/A Neutral N/A signif icantly. Journey quality The overall effect on travellers' view s w ould be neutral. The new bypass w ould provide view s of landscaping and better driving conditions than the current A120 through Little Hadham. There w ould be a beneficial effect on driver stress as using the bypass instead Moderate N/A N/A of travelling through the narrow section through the village w ill lead to a reduced f ear of beneficial potential accidents. The bypass provides the opportunity to significantly increase the quality of traveller view s and reduce driver stress. Accidents The reduction in traffic in Little Hadham w ould reduce the number of accidents experienced in the village. How ever, the increased length of the bypass compared w ith Moderate 4 additional personal injury accidents per year overall -£17.3m the current length of the A120 through Little Hadham w ould increase accidents overall adverse due to the increased vehicle kilometres. Security No change to road users' perception of security. N/A Neutral N/A

Access to services Reduction in journey times for residents of Little Hadham to access services in Bishop's N/A Slight beneficial N/A Stortford Affordability Small impact as a result of changes to the journey time through relief of congestion N/A Slight beneficial N/A chaging vheicle operating costs Severance The existing A120 runs through the centre of the village of Little Hadham and the current volume of traffic through the village and congestion resulting in queuing traffic through the village effectively severs it. With the scheme, there w ill be a large reduction in severance as traffic through the village w ill significantly reduce and in combination w ith traf fic calming measures w ill allow better access from one side of the village to the other. Moderate The flow of traffic past other side roads along this section of the A120 may be altered by N/A N/A beneficial the bypass, w ith the current signals providing gaps in traffic passing nearby minor roads. This could result in a small increase in severance for residents on these roads w ho may find it harder to turn on to the A120. How ever, these residents are small in number compared to the total number w ho w ill benefit from the bypass, and they w ill also benefit from the bypass w hen they use the A120 to travel through LIttle Hadham Option values No impact as no change to modes available N/A Neutral Cost to Broad Transport This is the total capital costs of the scheme Total cost including optimism bias at Q2 2013 prices is Budget n/a £24.1m £34.32m

Indirect Tax Revenues Changes in vehicle speeds w ith the scheme, and therefore reduction in fuel used, w ould result in changes in indirect tax revenues to central government n/a -£0.6m

Public Accounts

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

3.8 Value for Money Statement The Value for Money is calculated in accordance with DfT WebTAG guidelines. The calculated benefit cost ratio does not take into account the wider economic benefits such as enabling potential future growth. The DfT categorises Value for Money based on the benefit cost ratio of the scheme as follows:  Poor VfM – BCR less than 1.0  Low VfM – BCR between 1.0 and 1.5  Medium VfM – BCR between 1.5 and 2.0  High VfM – BCR between 2.0 and 4.0  Very high VfM – BCR greater than 4.0. The Hertfordshire LTB Assurance Framework specifies that they will only ordinarily recommend schemes that meet the high VfM threshold, that is have a BCR of at least 2.0. Table 20 below summarises the net present value of the costs and benefits over the 60 year appraisal period. All values are discounted to 2010 as per WebTAG guidelines. The discount rates used are 3.5% for years 0 to 30 from the current year and 3.0% for years 31 onwards in line with standard discount rates.26

Value (£) Capital cost NPV 24.13m Maintenance cost NPV 0.19m Present Value of Costs 24.13m Time saving benefits NPV 235.73m VOC benefits NPV 3.51m Indirect tax revenues NPV -0.62m CO2 benefits NPV 1.02m Accident benefits NPV -17.33m Present Value of Benefits 222.31m Overall NPV 197.99m BCR 9.1 Table 20: Summary of Results The project offers very high value for money with a BCR of 9.1. The vast majority of the benefits of the project come from time saving benefits, with smaller benefits from reductions in vehicle operating costs and carbon dioxide emissions. There are disbenefits from a loss of indirect tax revenues as a result of less fuel being used due to the higher average speeds with the bypass. There are also accident disbenefits. This is a result of the low existing accident

26 WebTAG 3.5.4, August 2012, Table 1

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

rates on the A120, which are lower than the COBA default rates assumed in the Do Something scenario. The bypass is also longer than the current A120 which increases the total vehicle kilometres in the Do Something scenario compared to the Do Minimum scenario. The BCR calculated here is slightly higher than the BCR reported for the final preferred option following the consultation of 7.9, despite costs having increased since the original BCR was calculated. The original BCR used model outputs, so would include the effects of traffic rerouting and induced traffic which has not been accounted for in this analysis and would be likely to reduce the benefits shown here. There were also changes in the DfT WebTAG guidance for cost benefit analysis in 2012 which included changing the base year for discounting and price base from 2002 to 2010 and updating the values used such as values of time. This may have had an effect on the results. Growth rates are also likely to be different to those used in the original appraisal. However, whilst the actual BCR varies from that calculated in 2008, both show very high value for money as they are over 4.0. It is planned that the model will be rerun for the planning application process in 2014 and the BCR recalculated. It is anticipated that the BCR will remain in the very high value for money category. In addition to the quantified benefits included in the BCR there are other benefits which have not been quantified. The quantified benefits do not include benefits from the side roads at the Little Hadham junction, which would no longer experience queuing due to the signals with the scheme. There would also be some benefits during the evening and at weekends, as although traffic volumes are lower at these times, the long cycle time at the traffic lights can sometimes result in delays and variability of journey times. There will also be reliability benefits, as on some days the queues from the Little Hadham traffic lights are reported to extend beyond the section to be bypassed and are longer than on the day the journey time surveys were undertaken. Currently police are having to monitor the traffic lights in Little Hadham due to drivers jumping the red lights because of their frustration at the length of the queues. With the bypass in place, traffic would no longer be held at traffic lights and the junction in Little Hadham would have its signals removed. The scheme would therefore save the current cost of the police resources being used to monitor the junction and reduce the likelihood of an accident occurring when a vehicle passes through the lights on red. The scheme includes traffic calming in the village. Removing the traffic and associated queues from the village will reduce severance and this combined with the traffic calming will make Little Hadham more appealing for non-motorised users. All of the benefits included in the BCR are based on benefits to traffic. There will also be benefits resulting from the flood alleviation scheme which have not been included in the BCR. There will also likely be some economic benefits to improved east west access across Hertfordshire, which are generally considered wider regeneration benefits and are not included in the BCR calculation in WebTAG. There are some negative impacts on the scheme as a result of building a bypass through agricultural land and the resulting landscape and severance issues. There may also be some severance impacts on side roads along the A120 outside of

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

Little Hadham due to the change in the traffic profile passing the road resulting from the removal of the lights and queuing. However, these are balanced with the positive impacts for residents of Little Hadham, the reduced journey times for all users of the A120 and by the inclusion of the flood alleviation measures which will bring further benefits, with up to 53 properties having a reduced level of flood risk, 15 of which would no longer be at risk from a 1% change of flooding in any year. There may also be some traffic impacts on the junctions with the A10 and Bishop’s Stortford as a result of the bypass, as a result of suppressed and induced traffic altering flows at the junctions. This would require more detailed modelling work to assess the changes to traffic at the junctions, and will be examined at the next stage once the traffic model has been rerun. The BCR may change from that currently presented once the model has been rerun and other impacts accounted for, although it is anticipated that the BCR will remain very high.

3.9 Sensitivity and Risk Profile Sensitivity tests have been carried out on the economic appraisal to assess the robustness of the results to changes to the key input variables. The following sensitivity tests have been carried out: 1. No traffic growth – traffic levels remain at 2013 levels throughout the appraisal period 2. High traffic growth – traffic growth in the area occurs at the NTEM adjusted by TEMPRO levels for Harlow (which is the district close to the A120 with the highest forecast growth over the period from 2013 to 2034). The growth factors used are shown in Table 21 below.

From To AM IP PM Average day 2013 2019 1.098 1.1112 1.098 1.102 2013 2024 1.200 1.2315 1.199 1.209 2013 2034 1.375 1.4480 1.376 1.398 Table 21: TEMPRO adjusted NTM growth factors for Harlow – high growth test 3. Reduced journey time savings – Do Something journey times have been calculated based on forecast traffic volumes and speed flow curves. If there were to be a significant amount of induced traffic with the scheme, the journey time savings may not be as high as estimated in the Base case. A sensitivity test has been carried out based on journey time savings being half those assumed in the Base case. See Table 22.

AM IP PM Bypass Eastbound 3 min 57 sec 0 min 36 sec 3 min 50 sec Westbound 3 min 57 sec 0 min 34 sec 3 min 9 sec Current A120 Eastbound 3 min 44 sec 0 min 23 sec 3 min 37 sec

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

Westbound 3 min 41 sec 0 min 18 sec 2 min 53 sec Table 22: Average journey time savings compared with Do Minimum scenario – sensitivity tests reducing time savings by 50% 4. Lower proportion of business trips – a test has been carried out using the lower proportions of business trips assumed in the Harlow Stansted Gateway Model; see Table 23. As the other journey purposes did not directly correspond to commute and other, the WebTAG values for these purposes have been adjusted proportionately.

Business Commute Other AM 10% 50% 39% IP 9% 12% 78% PM 9% 43% 48% Table 23: Journey purpose splits – based on HSGTM

A “worst case” sensitivity test has also been carried out combining Test 1, Test 3 and Test 4, that is no traffic growth, lower journey time savings and lower proportion of Business trips. The results of the sensitivity tests are summarised in Table 24 below.

Scenario NPV (£ million) BCR Base Case 197.99 9.1 Test 1 – No growth 154.88 7.4 Test 2 – High growth 231.29 9.8 Test 3 – reduced journey time savings 80.12 4.3 Test 4 – reduced proportion of Business trips 166.32 7.8 Test 1, Test 3 and Test 4 combined – “worst case” 47.29 2.9 Table 24: Sensitivity test results The results of the sensitivity tests show that whilst the tests with no traffic growth, lower journey time savings and lower proportion of business trips reduce the BCR, it remains in the very high value for money category (higher than 4.0). Even when these three tests are combined the BCR is still 2.9 and would fall in the high value for money category (over 2.0). This shows that the economic case for the scheme is robust and the scheme is still likely to represent value for money even if both the traffic growth and the time savings resulting from the bypass are lower than expected and the proportion of business trips in the area has been overestimated. The high traffic growth test shows a slightly higher BCR than the base case. Even taking the highest growth rate in the area, the volumes of traffic forecast for the bypass are not sufficient to require a dual carriageway standard. As described in Section 2.11, the Congestion Reference Flow for the bypass is an AADT flow of just over 27,000 vehicles. The high growth test indicates an AADT flow for the bypass in 2034 of almost 15,000 vehicles, much lower than the CRF value. The

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

growth factor used from 2013 to 2034 is 1.4. To reach the CRF value and require a dual carriageway, a growth by a factor of 1.8 would need to occur and all traffic on the existing A120 divert to the bypass. This is an unlikely scenario. There is a moderate risk that traffic growth rates will be different to those forecast as traffic growth has been variable in recent years and actual traffic growth may vary from the rates forecast by NTEM adjusted to TEMPRO. However, the impact of this risk occurring is low as even with no growth the scheme still represents very high value for money, and substantially higher growth than forecast anywhere in the vicinity of Little Hadham would need to occur for a dual carriageway to be required rather than a single carriageway. The risk that journey time savings will be lower than predicted is moderate as higher than forecast volumes of traffic using the bypass (due to induced traffic) would increase journey times on the bypass from those estimated. However, the impact of this risk is low as the scheme still generates very high value for money even with a lower journey time saving. A further sensitivity test was undertaken on the costs, testing the effect on the economic appraisal if the optimism bias was taken at the full rate of 44% for Stage 1 of scheme development27 rather than 30%. This reduces the BCR slightly to 8.3.

27 Taken from WebTAG 3.5.9 (August 2012)

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

4 Financial Case

4.1 Introduction The financial case concentrates on the affordability of the scheme, its funding arrangements and technical accounting issues.

4.2 Costs The total estimated scheme cost, excluding inflation, is £26.40m in 2013 Quarter 2 cost base as shown in Table 25.

Cost (£) Q2 2013 Stage 1: Scheme Development £0.31m Stage 2: Statutory Procedures £1.22m Stage 3: Procurement £0.10m Stage 4: Design and Construction £20.95m Risk Contingency £3.81m TOTAL CONSTRUCTION COST £26.40m Table 25: Scheme Cost Estimate Inflation has been applied at the point of spend for each scheme element based on the project plan (Section 6.8) at a rate of 3% per annum28. This indicates total outturn costs of £29.86m as shown in Table 26.

Financial Year 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Total

Construction Cost £0.11m £0.63m £1.07m £0.70m £9.74m £14.14m £26.40m Inflation £0.00m £0.02m £0.06m £0.07m £1.19m £2.13m £3.47m

Outturn Cost £0.12m £0.65m £1.13m £0.76m £10.93m £16.26m £29.86m

Table 26: Costs Profile

4.2.1 Flood Alleviation Costs The construction cost estimate includes an allowance of £0.94m for the flood alleviation scheme comprising inlet structure, outlet structure, stepped concrete spillway, culvert, spillway culvert and earthworks embankment. This is based on current information and may change as the scheme is developed further. Any additional costs associated with the flood alleviation elements of the scheme will be the responsibility of the Environment Agency.

28 Based on RPI inflation from 2011/12 to 2012/13 and on BCIS Resource cost index of road construction 2011/12 to 2012/13

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

4.3 Funding Sources The funding required to deliver the proposed Little Hadham bypass scheme is in excess of the sums that can be provided by the county council. The cost of the scheme places it within the class of infrastructure project previously categorised by DfT as a transport major scheme. Funding for such projects has been devolved from Central Government to LTBs and ultimately to LEPs via the Single Local Growth Fund. The DfT has indicated that £18.5m will be provided to the Hertfordshire LTB to cover transport Major Scheme expenditure for the period 2015 to 2019. The A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) scheme has been identified as a high priority scheme for the county for LTB expenditure. The total funding required to deliver the scheme is £29.86m including inflation. Of this, £1.55m in preparation costs will be funded by the county council. However, if the entire LTB ‘pot’ of £18.5m is made available for this scheme, there remains a shortfall of £9.81m in 2018/19 (including inflation) that will be the subject of an application by the scheme sponsor (Hertfordshire County Council) to the Hertfordshire LEP. Should this funding not be available, it is likely that the scheme will not proceed although the county council would evaluate all available options at the appropriate time to seek additional financing if it became necessary. It is anticipated that approximately £1m of funding for the dam element of the scheme would be sourced via the Environment Agency due to the flood alleviation measures. It is anticipated that the whole scheme would be procured under a single construction contract. The relationship between the two schemes is shown in Figure 11.

Figure 11: Relationship of transport scheme and flood alleviation scheme business cases Stansted Airport has made a Deed of Unilateral Undertaking for a contribution of £0.25m (in 2008 prices to point of payment) to be paid three months following completion of a A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) if construction starts before 31 December 2018. Once inflated this equates to approximately £0.33m. These contributions would reduce the total LEP funding to approximately £8.48m.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

Funding sources are summarised in Table 27 below. Table 28 sets out a full spending profile based upon the project programme showing the expenditure in each year up to scheme opening and the proposed funding sources. Due to the uncertain timing of the potential contributions via the Environment Agency and from Stansted Airport, these sums are grouped in third party funding streams up to 2018/19 to be repaid later.

Funding Source Amount (£m) Project Sponsor (Hertfordshire County Council) £1.55m Growth Fund (LTB) £18.50m Environment Agency sources £1.0m Stansted Airport Ltd £0.33m Growth Fund (LEP) £8.48m Total £29.86m Table 27: Funding Sources

Financial Year 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 Total

Hertfordshire £0.12m £0.65m £0.68m £0.10m £0 £0 £1.55m County Council LTB £0 £0 £0.45m £0.66m £10.93m £6.45m £18.50m

Third Party £0 £0 £0 £0 £0 £9.81m £9.81m

Total £0.12m £0.65m £1.13m £0.76m £10.93m £16.26m £29.86m

Table 28: Costs Profile (including inflation)

4.3.1 Affordability In terms of the strategic options considered to relieve the traffic problems in Little Hadham, the local bypass option is relatively low cost compared to the longer more elaborate bypasses or strategic route options considered and is therefore more affordable. Whilst it is more expensive than any scheme involving local improvements in the village, it gives a greater degree of relief to the residents from traffic congestion, air pollution and severance and therefore has greater benefits. It also provides a longer term solution as opposed to a local improvement scheme which would be less robust against future traffic growth and traffic from new developments.

4.3.2 Financial Risk There are four sources of funding for the scheme; the LTB proportion of the Growth Fund, the LEP controlled element of the Growth Fund, the Environment Agency sourced funding and Stansted Airport Ltd. The bid to the LTB and the LEP is for 95% of the capital funding and if either of these streams were not forthcoming the scheme will not go ahead.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

In the event that funds committed by either Environment Agency or Stansted Airport were not forthcoming the county council would review the funding of the scheme both internally and with stakeholders. In the event that no additional funds could be secured nor the scheme reduced in scope while still retaining its benefits, the project would not proceed.

4.4 Budgets / Funding Cover The total funding required to deliver the scheme is £29.86m including inflation. Of this, £1.55m in preparation costs will be funded by the county council. However, if the entire LTB ‘pot’ of £18.5m is made available for this scheme, there remains a shortfall of £9.81m that will be the subject of an application by the scheme sponsor (Hertfordshire County Council) to the Hertfordshire LEP. Should this funding not be available, the scheme will not proceed.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

5 Commercial Case

5.1 Introduction The commercial case provides evidence on the commercial viability of the scheme and the procurement strategy that will be used. It sets out the financial implication of the proposed procurement strategy and presents evidence on risk allocation and transfer, contract timetables and implementation timescale as well as details of the capability and skills of the team delivering the project.

5.2 Procurement Strategy The procurement strategy will be developed to ensure that the most appropriate approach is taken in order to deliver the best value solution to meet the requirements of the project within the required timeframe. The procurement of the project will be undertaken and delivered in accordance with the Contract Regulations contained within Annex 13 of the council’s constitution. The Contract Regulations aim to set out the rules required to:  achieve best value and deliver savings from the market;  achieve accountability and transparency at all levels within the council, and ensure an adequate audit trail is maintained;  ensure that officers comply with the law and follow proper, fair and proportionate procedures for the involvement and selection of tenderers and the award of contracts;  ensure that all procurement processes reflect appropriate and realistic quality requirements and that offers are judged by objective criteria set out in invitation to tender or quote documentation; and  ensure that all procurement processes are delivered within an appropriate legal framework. This value of the scheme is above the EU Procurement thresholds and therefore the Public Contracts Regulations 2006 (as amended) will be complied with and the county council Strategic Procurement Group will be involved through the procurement process. The contract strategy is still being finalised, however it is envisaged it is likely to be a Design and Build or a traditional construction only contract. Contract strategies of Design, Build, Finance and Operate and Early Contractor Involvement prior to planning applications have been discounted. The final decision will be based on risk allocation, ability to meet the required programme, and availability of county council resource. Discussions are also on going with the Environment Agency about how the design and construction of the flood alleviation elements would be procured. The current intention is that all the works (both highways and flood attenuation) would be delivered through a single contract. The principles of the arrangements agreed between the county council and the Environment Agency will be set out in a Memorandum of Understanding which will form the basis of a Collaboration Agreement once the details have been settled.

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The draft Memorandum of Understanding is provided in Appendix H. As the legislation and requirements around Sustainable Drainage Systems (SUDS) approvals will be changing in 2014, this may have an impact on the chosen procurement route. The options are currently being evaluated. The procurement process would be undertaken in accordance with the appropriate UK and European regulations (EU Public Procurement Directive). The procurement of the contract would be managed through the council’s eProcurement system. The evaluation of tenders shall be in line with the pre published criteria for award and the evaluation methodology set out in the tender documents. The evaluation will be undertaken in an objective, consistent and fair manner. Evaluation scoring and comments regarding the submission responses will be recorded in order to satisfy the requirement to give feedback in writing.

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6 Management Case

6.1 Introduction The management case assesses the deliverability of the project, testing project planning, governance structure, risk management, communications and stakeholder management, benefits realisation and assurance. It sets out a plan to ensure that the benefits set out in the economic case are realised and includes measures to assess and evaluate this.

6.2 Evidence of Similar Projects The county council has delivered similar major projects in the past such as the A505 Baldock Bypass, (including tunnel construction), Royston Railway Crossing and is currently in the process of delivering the Croxley Rail Link (an extension to the London Underground's Metropolitan Line in Watford) as a major project. Examples are provided below.

6.2.1 A505 Baldock Bypass The A505 Baldock Bypass was constructed between April 2004 and March 2006, with complementary works completed in December 2006. The bypass is a 6.5km long dual carriageway with a 70mph speed limit. It includes the 200m long twin bore Weston Hills Tunnel. At one end there is a grade separated interchange and at the other an at grade roundabout. The bypass cost £43m. The objectives of the Baldock Bypass scheme were: 1. To relieve traffic congestion within Baldock by removing through traffic 2. To improve access from the north to employment areas in Letchworth 3. To improve environmental conditions in Baldock 4. To improve conditions for the operation of public transport services through Baldock 5. To improve safety, particularly for pedestrians and cyclists in Baldock town centre A Before and After Study was carried out with data collected in 2003/04 being compared with data collected in March 2007, a year after the bypass opened to traffic. The bypass was found to be carrying a two way flow of around 20,000 vehicles between 0600 and 2200. It has removed large volumes of traffic from the previous through route in the town, reducing traffic on these roads by between 55 and 67%. The Before and After assessment was concluded to indicate that there is evidence that all of the scheme objectives had been met.

6.2.2 Royston Railway Crossing Another project successfully delivered recently by the county council is the Royston Railway Crossing. The project cost £3.8m and involved the construction of a new railway underpass providing cycle and pedestrian links across north

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

Royston, connecting areas previously separated by the railway line. Works began in March 2011 and the scheme was opened in June 2012.

6.2.3 Croxley Rail Link The Croxley Rail Link is a proposed diversion and extension of the Watford Branch of the Metropolitan line to Watford Junction via Watford High Street. New stations will be provided on the new rail link at Ascot Road, which will provide parking for the area, and Watford General Hospital serving the proposed Watford Health Campus. Scheme objectives include enhancement of sustainable links for residents to employment, business, education, health and leisure opportunities; provision of local connectivity and provision of sustainable and value-for-money alternatives to car travel, with lower environmental impacts per trip. The £100m plus scheme is being delivered by the county council as lead promoter in partnership with London Underground and Network Rail and is due to open in 2017. The civil engineering elements of the scheme were procured by the county council through an Early Contractor Involvement Design and Build contract. The specialist railway related elements of the scheme will be delivered by London Underground using their existing contractors. The Procurement Strategy was reviewed with the scheme partners to establish the most cost effective solution for procuring the works. This included establishing an independent Assurance team to reduce the number of industry interfaces. A single contract has been procured through the county council, apart from signalling, communications, rolling stock and ticketing equipment, which would use existing London Underground frameworks.

6.3 Project Dependencies The total funding required to deliver the scheme is £29.86m including inflation. Of this, £1.55m in preparation costs will be funded by the county council. However, if the entire LTB ‘pot’ of £18.5m is made available for this scheme (Section 4.2.1), there remains a shortfall of £9.81m that will be the subject of an application by the scheme sponsor (Hertfordshire County Council) to the Hertfordshire LEP. Should this funding not be available, the scheme will not proceed. It is anticipated that £1m from the Environment Agency and £0.33m from Stansted Airport will be contributed and this would reduce the total LEP funding to £8.48m

6.4 Governance, Organisational Structure and Roles This section describes key roles, lines of accountability and how they are resourced. The county council is leading the project to deliver the A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Scheme. It is responsible for providing staff and other resources to manage the project from the county council’s perspective and ensure the Project is

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

organised and controlled effectively with regular updates made available to all key stakeholders. The Environment Agency is leading the flood alleviation component of the project.

6.4.1 Governance Structure The governance structure for the project is shown in Figure 12.

Figure 12: Governance Structure

6.4.2 Key Responsibilities and Roles Table 29 below defines the key responsibilities of the project team.

Role Responsibility

Project Board Sponsors and signs off on strategic decisions and risk mitigation strategy. Escalates to Chief Officer and/or political decision makers. Steering Group Responsible for overseeing the delivery of the Project and making strategic decisions Working Groups Delegated to look after the day to day delivery of the Project Project Manager Responsible for managing the delivery of the Project Table 29: Project Roles and Responsibilities The composition and role of the various groups are summarised below:

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

6.4.3 Project Board The Project Board comprises the Senior Responsible Officers from the two sponsoring organisations (Hertfordshire County Council and the Environment Agency) plus the county council’s Major Projects Programme Manager. Support is provided as required by the county council Property, Legal and Finance. The LEP Infrastructure Manager is represented and East Herts District Council are invited to attend these meetings to address a particular item on the agenda. The technical advisor may be expected to present at the Board meetings. The Project Board meets on an ‘as-needed basis’ but may confirm decisions via e- mail if necessary. As the project progresses into future stages, the Board will be required to meet on a more regular basis. The key tasks of the Project Board are:  Review progress against the agreed plan and approve cost and/or programme implications outside of agreed tolerances;  Review Risk Mitigation elements;  Approve decisions to move to next stage of the project; and  Agree position statements (except when referred to elected members).

6.4.4 Steering Group The Steering Group comprises next tier of stakeholder representatives and meets every month. From time to time other key stakeholders may be invited to attend these meetings. The technical advisor will be expected to present at the Steering Group meeting. The key tasks for the Steering Group are to review progress against the agreed plan; and the Group is responsible for the day to day running of the project, including:  Agree strategy;  Resolve escalated issues from Working Groups; and  Recommend position statements.

6.4.5 Working Groups These are targeted groups responsible for individual components of the project such as procurement, legal issues, communications, finance and technical issues. The Working Groups meet as needed. Keys tasks are:  Develop strategy, identify risks, costs and programme;  Resolve issues;  Record Decisions; and  Report to Project Board via Steering Group with recommendations.

6.5 Programme The indicative Strategic Programme is shown in Table 30.

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Stage Description Target Completion Date Stage 1 Project Initiation Complete Gateway: Approval to proceed to Stage 2 Complete Stage 2 Option Assessment Complete Gateway: Preferred Option Agreed and Signed off by Cabinet Complete Gateway: Funding options identified and Approval to proceed to Complete Stage 3 Stage 3 Scheme Development including Business Case March 2014 Gateway: Indicative Funding Obtained and “Programme Entry” Status April 2014 Granted Gateway: Approval to Proceed to Stage 4 April 2014 Gateway: Additional Funding Obtained July 2014 Stage 4 Statutory Processes and Powers December 2015 Gateway: Approval to seek planning permission and publish statutory January 2015 documents (planning permission, CPO, TRO) Gateway: Decision on whether to convene a Public Inquiry Mid-2015 Gateway: Awarded Powers and Decision to Proceed to Stage 5 Early 2016 Stage 5 Procurement (Tender/Evaluation) September 2016 Gateway: Approval to Issue OJEU Early 2016 Gateway: Approval of pre-Qualification Assessment and Mid-2016 Recommendations Gateway: Award Contract and Decision to Proceed to Stage 6 Early 2017 Stage 6 Detailed Design Mid 2017 Gateway: Agree Detailed Design and Decision to Proceed to Stage 7 2018 Stage 7 Construction 2018-19 Gateway: Complete Construction and Proceed to Stage 8 2019 Stage 8 Handover December 2019 Gateway: Proceed to Stage 9 2019 Stage 9 Closeout and Review February 2020 Gateway: Complete Review and Lessons Learned and Proceed to 2020 Stage 10 Stage 10 Maintenance and Monitoring Feb 2020 On going Table 30: Strategic Programme and Gateways

6.6 Approvals At each stage, it is assumed that the county council has delegated authority for the Chief Officer to approve the decision to proceed to the next stage on recommendation of the Project Board, except as shown in Table 31. Environment Agency Approvals are shown in Table 32.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

Hertfordshire County Council Element Approval Required Application for CPO Order Cabinet approval Agreed Final Draft of Legal Contracts Director (after consultation with Executive Member/Cabinet), if necessary Agreement to Procure Director (after consultation with Executive Member/Cabinet), if necessary Award of Contract and Decision to Proceed Director (after consultation with Executive Member/Cabinet) informed by report from tender evaluation team via Project Board Table 31: Hertfordshire County Council Approvals Required

Environment Agency Element Approval Required Levy Funding Approval Regional Flooding Coastal Committee’s sub- committee – November 2013 Flood Defence Grant in Aid Funding Project Approval Board – Mid 2014 Table 32: Environment Agency Approvals Required

6.7 Dependencies Figure 13 illustrates the key dependencies for the Invitation to Tender and Award of Contract:

Figure 13: Key Dependencies

6.8 Project Plan The Project Plan with key assurance and approval milestones, including critical path is provided in Appendix E and reproduced in Figure 14.

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Figure 14: Project Plan and Key Milestones

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6.9 Document Log A detailed document production log has been maintained and is set out in Table 33. This is a living document and will be updated as appropriate as the project progresses. Statutory Processes and Powers Scheme Development (Business Maintenance andMonitoring Closeout and Review Option Assessment Project Initiation Project Detailed Design Procurement Construction Handover Case)

Document

Key: C= Create U = Update R= Review A = Agree Project Governance Document Log C U U U U U U U U R Project Initiation Document C U R R R R R Programme Plan C U U U U U R Project Brief C U U R R R Risk Management Strategy C U R R R R R Project Board Risk Register C U U U U U R Issues Log C U U U U U R Decision Log C U U U U U R Progress Reports C C C C C C R Maintenance Strategy C U R R R R R Evaluation and Monitoring Plan C U U U U U U R Communications Strategy C U U U U R R Lessons Learned Report C Financial Documents Business Case C R Financial Report C C C C C R Funding Decision C R Procurement Documents Procurement Strategy C U U/R Tender Evaluation Process C R including agreed evaluation criteria and methodology Clarification Process, for both C R pre-tender (all Bidders) and post

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

tender submission (individual Bidders) clarifications OJEU Notice C R Invitation to Tender including C R Specification, Conditions of Contract and Response Document Final Contract Documents C R Contract Management C U U U R Arrangements Procurement Report C R R Technical Documents Construction Risk and C U U U U U R Opportunities Register CDM Compliance C U U U U U U U R Environmental Statement C R R R R R R Environmental Impact C R R R R R Assessment Preliminary Design Report C NMU Context Report and Audit C Stage 1 Roads Safety Audit C Specimen design C Maintenance Risk Register C U Legal/Statutory Power Documents Memorandum of Understanding C/A R between Environment Agency and Hertfordshire County Council Collaboration Agreement C A R R R R R Environment Agency/Hertfordshire County Council Planning Permission C R R R R R CPO Order C R R R R R Draft Rights of Way Diversions C R R R R R TROs C R R R R R SUDS Approvals C R R R R R Legal Agreements with Land C R R R R R owners Environment Agency Documents Project Appraisal Report C Performance Specification for C U R R R R R R Flood Storage Table 33: Document Log

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6.10 Project Controls and Reporting The following project controls will be maintained by the Project Manager. These documents will be updated at the Working Group meetings and presented by the Project Manager at the Project Board meetings:  Project Programme;  Progress Report, including issue escalation;  Risk Register;  Issues Log;  Decision Log;  Document Log; and  Document Naming Standards. The Project Manager will prepare progress reports at regular intervals. The key elements, against which progress will be monitored, include the following:  Progress against plan;  Involvement of stakeholders;  Issues and risks;  Review of project objectives;  Deliverables achieved;  Cost control and budget review; and  Quality management.

6.11 Risk Management

6.11.1 Strategic Risks The county council’s Risk Management Information System will be used to identify and manage risks effectively. The Council’s Performance and Risk Management team has produced a suite of guidance and support information based upon the Office of Government’s approach to the management of risk. The risk management methodology will include the essential elements within the ‘management systems’ approach to risk, namely identification, assessment, control, monitoring and review. These elements will mostly occur sequentially, but may also occur concurrently and iteratively. The web-based Risk Register will be accessed via the project team portal and will allow the project team to register, control and review risks. Risk will be managed in accordance with the county council’s Project Risk Management Strategy which clearly identifies:  Process;

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

 Roles & Responsibilities;  Risk Identification and Assessment; and  Report & Escalation Procedures. The Risk Register will be maintained and updated on a regular basis by the project’s Risk Manager and circulated for review, as specified in the above document and summarised below:  Red Risks will be discussed and reviewed at the Project Board Meetings; and  Red and Amber Risks will be discussed and reviewed at the Steering Group Meetings. A separate guide has been provided online outlining how RISK should be assessed to provide consistency and training sessions will been arranged for all project team members requiring access to the system. A Steering Group Risk Workshop, facilitated by the county council's Performance and Risk Management team, was held in October 2013 to review scheme objectives and identify risks to three key aims:  To ensure that the A120 bypass (Little Hadham) will be built and it will include a flood storage area;  To be successful at obtaining all of the funding necessary for the scheme; and  To ensure that the scheme will be delivered by 2019. A risk questionnaire was distributed independently to all Steering Group members that initially identified some 60 risks. These were distilled into nine summary strategic risks that were considered in detail at the meeting and scored against likelihood and impact in accordance with the Project Risk Management Strategy scoring matrix. The Steering Group subsequently identified owners and controls for each of the nine strategic risks. The Risk and Controls Report is attached at Appendix F.

6.11.2 Construction and Programme Risks A Construction and Programme Risk Workshop was held early in 2013 with the Project Manager and the scheme’s technical consultants to identify cost, programme, environmental and construction risks. Complementary methods of risk identification were used to ensure there is a comprehensive list of risks to all variables and these were inputted to a Construction Risk and Opportunities Register. This will form the basis of future risk review workshops and risk interviews with key project stakeholders as the project proceeds. All project team members will be encouraged to identify and report any additional risks as project circumstances change (e.g. as a result of design development). This will ensure that the Construction Risk and Opportunities Register is reviewed and updated continually throughout the life of the project. The semi-quantitative assessments of risk probability and severity have been reviewed to determine the need for appropriate risk responses and also the scope

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

of Quantified Risk Assessment modelling. All significant capital cost and schedule risks have been modelled in @RISK and Pertmaster respectively, in order to quantify suitable contingencies. Risk exposure has been assessed both before and after accounting for the benefit of risk response measures. The subsequent Mean Contingency sum has been applied to the scheme costs profile (Section 3.3.1). Optimism bias, as a potential source of error for the purpose of calculating the Benefit Cost Ratio, was also assessed. WebTAG (Unit 3.5.9, August 2012) allows for a reduction from the recommended uplift of 44% dependent on the stage of scheme development, quality of risk assessment and extent to which optimism bias has been mitigated. The Highways Agency’s tool has been used to assess these elements for this scheme and indicates an appropriate uplift of 30% which has been applied to the economic appraisal. The Highways Agency Tool is provided in Appendix C. The risk type and the assessed magnitude of risk exposure will highlight whether or not risk responses are necessary to ensure risk exposure remains within tolerable levels. Consideration will be given to responses based on risk avoidance, risk reduction, risk transfer and risk absorption strategies. Where risk responses are considered necessary, a risk response plan will be produced. A suitably qualified and experienced project team member will be responsible for managing individual risk response plans. The overall responsibility for the Construction Risk and Opportunities Register will lie with the Project Manager. The Construction Risk and Opportunities Register is provided in Appendix B.

6.12 Communications and Stakeholder Management Public and stakeholder engagement will be a key part of the delivery of the project. The overriding objective of the engagement process is for it to be transparent, flexible and robust so that the public and stakeholders can engage in a meaningful way at the key stages of the project. There have already been public consultation events undertaken during the early development of the scheme and preferred route. These events included a questionnaire asking members of the public to provide feedback and their preferred route. The responses were then used and considered alongside other information in determining the preferred route. The statutory consultees and other key stakeholders will be engaged throughout the scheme assessment and delivery process. The team will endeavour to address concerns and gain wide-spread support for the scheme. We would envisage holding public information events, one-to-one meetings with potentially directly affected landowners and other interested parties. These events and meetings would be coordinated with the Environment Agency. We will hold Environmental Liaison Group Meetings (ELG) throughout the environmental assessment process. An ELG will be formed in order to fully engage the relevant statutory consultees in the assessment and development process. We propose a number of ELG meetings with further targeted individual consultation activities with specialists within the regulatory authorities. During the development and implementation of the scheme, the project team will work closely with the key stakeholders, keeping them informed of progress at

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

regular intervals. Partnership working has already been established in developing the scheme appraisal and this will be continued through the next stages. Further engagement is also planned during the detail design stage. Key stakeholders will be involved, as necessary, in developing the scheme proposals and also in the engagement process. Other stakeholders include statutory undertakers and statutory consultees. Liaison with these organisations will be continued during the scheme development to ensure that the proposals are robust to minimise any unforeseen risks.

6.13 Benefits Realisation Plan A Benefits Realisation Plan will be prepared for the A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) scheme. The plan will be designed to enable benefits that are expected from the scheme to be planned for, tracked and realised. The plan will demonstrate whether the implemented scheme actually generates the benefits intended and set out the key activities that will be required to manage the successful realisation of those benefits. The benefits anticipated for the scheme relate to the following:  A decrease the journey times along the A120 between Bishop’s Stortford and the A10;  The provision of a local bypass at Little Hadham in scale with the other sections of the route;  A reduction in the risk of fluvial flooding in Little Hadham;  A reduction in severance in the centre of Little Hadham caused by traffic; and  An improvement to the overall well-being of residents in Little Hadham. The county council Project Manager will develop the Benefits Realisation Plan (in parallel with the monitoring and evaluation strategy outlined below) based on the following:  Identifying the stakeholders impacted – car drivers and passengers, commercial vehicle companies and drivers, pedestrians and cyclists, public transport operators and users and local residents;  Any additional enablers required over and above the proposed bypass;  Outcomes displayed, quantified through the monitoring and evaluation strategy;  Identification of the responsible body and/or individual; and  Targets dates for achievement of the anticipated benefits. Having created the Benefits Realisation Plan at the start of the project, the document will remain ‘live’ and will be reviewed at agreed points throughout the project lifecycle. This will show if the scheme is delivering the desired benefits and allow addition of unforeseen impacts. The plan will also set out the process for delivering corrective action where the outcomes anticipated for the project may not be being achieved.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

6.14 Monitoring and Evaluation A monitoring and evaluation strategy is being developed in accordance with DfT guidance in order to measure the effectiveness of the intervention in meeting the scheme objectives. The strategy is based upon two elements:  assessment of data that is already collected by the county council on a before and after basis; and  collection and assessment of data collected specifically for the purpose of developing and appraising the scheme. The results will be reported in a Before and After Study to be produced one year after full scheme opening. Evaluation of the scheme based upon the monitored impacts and outcomes will be reported in the study. Table 34 shows the scheme objectives and monitoring arrangements. Data collected during scheme development will provide baseline data. Monitoring will be undertaken by the schemes sponsors (Hertfordshire County Council and Environment Agency).

Objective Monitoring Arrangement 1. To decrease the journey Repeat the journey time surveys that were originally undertaken time along the A120 between in May 2013. These were carried out between the Tilekiln Farm Bishop’s Stortford and the entry and the roundabout to the west of Bishop’s Stortford A10 by providing a local (junction with the A1184) with four intermediate timing points bypass at Little Hadham in (junction with Albury Road in Little Hadham, junction with scale with the other sections minor road at Church End, junction with Millfield Lane, junction of the route by 2019. with minor road towards Cradle End). These surveys should be undertaken on a weekday (Tuesday – Thursday) with at least four runs in each direction being carried out in each of the AM Peak (0800-0900), PM Peak (1700-1800) and Inter-peak (1300-1400). Journey time surveys should be carried out over the route described for both the bypass and the current A120 through Little Hadham 2. To reduce the risk of fluvial The Environment Agency will monitor. flooding in Little Hadham by working with the Environment Agency to deliver a flood attenuation area as part of the delivery of the bypass. 3.To reduce severance in the Repeat the number plate matching survey surveys that was centre of Little Hadham by originally undertaken in May 2013. This survey should be removal of the majority of the undertaken over 12 hours (0700-1900) to indicate the proportion through traffic congestion of traffic passing through Little Hadham and, as a result, improving the overall well-being of residents in Little Hadham. Table 34: Scheme Monitoring Arrangements

6.15 Options The project will be subject to governance and management procedures in accordance with the county council’s standard processes and will be managed according to the protocols developed.

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Glossary

Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

AADT Annual Average Daily Traffic

AAWT Annual Average Weekday Traffic

ATC Automatic Traffic Count

BCR Benefit Cost Ratio

CDM Construction, Design and Maintenance

COBA DfT COst Benefit Analysis computer program

CPO Compulsory Purchase Order

CRF Congestion Reference Flow

Defra Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

DfT Department for Transport

DMRB Design Manual for Roads and Bridges

EA Environment Agency

ELG Environmental Liaison Group

HGV Heavy Goods Vehicle

IP Inter Peak

LEP Local Enterprise Partnership

LGV Light Goods Vehicle

LTB Local Transport Body

NMU Non-Motorised User

NPV Net Present Value

NTM National Trip Model

OGV Ordinary Goods Vehicle

1.0 | Issue 3 | 27 February 2014

Hertfordshire County Council A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case

OJEU Official Journal of the European Union

PSV Public Service Vehicle

S106 Section 106 (of the Town and Country Planning Act 1990)

SUDS Sustainable Drainage System

TEMPRO Trip End Model Presentation Program

TRO Traffic Regulation Order

TUBA Transport User Benefits Appraisal

VfM Value for Money

VOC Vehicle Operating Cost

VOT Value of Time

1.0 | Issue 3 | 27 February 2014

Appendix A Proposed Scheme Drawings

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Revision Amendment Approved Revision Date Project 01 For Information ON 23-05-13 A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Based upon the Ordnance Survey material with the u permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Officec Crown copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings.?? ??Hertfordshire County Council, 100019606 2012 ?? Sheet

3 571 Drawn Designed Approved Revision Date General Arrangement COUNTY HALL Pegs Lane DW AP ON 23-05-13 Sheet 3 of 3 m r a Hertford, Herts F Project No. Scale Drawing No. Sheet. No. Revision

e 1:1@ A1 s SG13 8DN ou 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 mm H 1:2@ A3 t Phone: 01992 555555 t 225805-31 1:2500 22580531-A120-CH004 01 A

Original Sheet Size A1 [841x594] Plot Date

Appendix B Construction Risk and Opportunities Register

Project ref: 225805-31 Hertfordshire County Council Probability Severity (Liability, Impact) Risk Classification Scheme ScaleTypical Range (%) Value Scale Cost (£) Time Value Rev: 01 Risk Likelihood

Remote Very Low Low Medium High Very High Remote 0% 1% 1 Insignificant <100,000 <1 week 1 0.85(5) Date: 0.05 (1) 0.25(2) 0.45(3) 0.65(4) 1.05(6) 19.11.13 Catastrophic Very Low 1% 10% 2 Low 100,000 300,000 1 week 2 weeks 2 1.6(6) 0.08 0.4 0.72 1.04 1.36 1.68 Very High 0.8(5) 0.04 0.2 0.36 0.52 0.68 0.84 Project Title: Low 10% 30% 3 Medium 300,000 500,000 2 weeks 1 month 3 Checked High by: IGC 0.4(4) 0.02 0.1 0.18 0.26 0.34 0.42 A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Medium 30% 50% 4 Serious 500,000 1,000,000 1 month 6 months 4 Medium 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.13 0.17 0.21

Risk Severity Severity Risk 0.2(3) Design stage: High 50% 70% 5 Very Serious 1,000,000 5,000,000 6 months 12 months 5 Approved Low 0.1(2) 0.005 0.025 0.045 0.065 0.085 0.1 by: PAS Very High 70% 100% 6 Catastrophic >5000000 >12 months - 6 Very Low Business Case Phase 0.05(1) 0.0025 0.013 0.023 0.033 0.043 0.05

Refer Mitigation Target ence Statu Risk ID Work Package or Discipline Cause Effect/Risk Description Partially Mitigated Risk Rating Probability Severity Risk Analysis Actions/ Mitigation Measures to be considered Risk Owner Comments Date Num s bers

Probability Impact Forced Probability Severity Risk P1 P0 Min Likely Max Distribution Distribution Sampling A120 0.00 0.0% 100.0% #NAME? 0 #NAME? Footbridge included in scheme estimate, no risk at this 1 Allowance to maintain footpath crossing scheme Increased cost 3 1 0.02 20.0% 80.0% £5,000 £12,000 £20,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Preliminaries stage Allowance include in cost estimate, no risk at this stage 2 Drainage Allowance for flood compensatory scheme Embankment requires clay lined centre 3 3 0.09 20.0% 80.0% £150,000 £250,000 £500,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Allowance include in cost estimate, no risk at this stage 3 Preliminaries Preconstruction drainage needs to consider flooding Increased cost 3 1 0.02 20.0% 80.0% £10,000 £20,000 £30,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Allowance for tempoary fencing to allow hedge 4Fencing 6 2 0.10 85.0% 15.0% £20,000 £100,000 £250,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? establishment 5 Fencing Ecological measures - badger or otter fencing 6 2 0.10 85.0% 15.0% £15,000 £50,000 £150,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Noise barrier - potential double counting with land and 6Fencing 4 2 0.07 40.0% 60.0% £20,000 £100,000 £250,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? comp part 1 claims Allowance for tree and soft landscaping, risk of additional 7 Landscaping 5 3 0.17 60.0% 40.0% £50,000 £200,000 £400,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? requirements above allowance Potential Opportunity not consider in risk analysis at this Cost estimate based on kerb and gully potential 8Drainage 2 2 0.03 5.5% 94.5% -£20,000 -£5,000 £0 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? stage opportunity to change drainage system to reduce costs Cost estimate includes for flood attenuation scheme. Risk if flood attenuation removed may need 9 Drainage 5 3 0.17 60.0% 40.0% -£100,000 £200,000 £450,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Scope of works may change/increase to review route. Risk of surveys identifying additional species which Allowance made for mitgation in estimate, require further 10 Environmental Mitgation 4 3 0.13 40.0% 60.0% £50,000 £100,000 £250,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? require mitgation surveys. Cost estimate based on known information, areas of soft Assumed increase by 20% 11 Earthworks ground or bad ground conditions, contamination not be 5 3 0.17 60.0% 40.0% £150,000 £400,000 £750,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? identified 12 Earthworks Unidentified mines or mine shafts 1 4 0.02 0.5% 99.5% £75,000 £250,000 £550,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Included in single risk for earthworks above Included in single risk for earthworks above 13 Earthworks High ground water table affects construction sequence 3 2 0.05 20.0% 80.0% £15,000 £25,000 £40,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Cost estimate is based on percentage for prelims, 14 Preliminaries detailed site access arrangement and haul roads may Increased cost 4 2 0.07 40.0% 60.0% £50,000 £100,000 £200,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? increase allowance. Ground conditions may affect sub-base and capping Included in single risk for earthworks above 15 Earthworks 3 2 0.05 20.0% 80.0% £25,000 £75,000 £200,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? requirements No allowance in cost estimate for footways along bypass 16 Footpaths 3 4 0.18 20.0% 80.0% £200,000 £500,000 £750,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? - check HCC design standards Cost estimate includes high allowance for works in village. Cost estimate based on removal of traffic signals, 17 Little Hadham Improvements provision of mini roundabouts, cushions and pedestrain Cost estimate inaccurate 4 2 0.07 40.0% 60.0% -£100,000 £0 £150,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Outline design produced within estimate crossings, speed limits local 20 zone, lighting Cost estimate includes high allowance for works in village. 18 Little Hadham Improvements Do you widen footpaths to cover local cycle provision 1 1 0.00 0.5% 99.5% £0 £0 £20,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Cost estimate includes high allowance for works in village. 19 Little Hadham Improvements Measures to ensure HGVs don't use the existing road Bishops Stortford works example 3 2 0.05 20.0% 80.0% £50,000 £80,000 £175,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 20 Lighting Roundabouts lighting allowance inaccurate 2 2 0.03 5.5% 94.5% £15,000 £25,000 £35,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Cost estimate incldues allowance for lighting Cost based on deck area, no allowance for foundations 21 Structures 5 4 0.34 60.0% 40.0% £200,000 £400,000 £800,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? design need to confirm structural form. 22 Structures Additional asthetic requirements may increase costs 3 2 0.05 20.0% 80.0% £25,000 £50,000 £100,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 23 Structures Check highload or exceptionally load road 2 3 0.05 5.5% 94.5% £50,000 £100,000 £150,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Initial inquiries confirm it is not a high load route Can we remove the footbridge, at grade crossing or 24 Structures 2 2 0.03 5.5% 94.5% -£100,000 £0 £0 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? divert Allowed for farm bridges in cost estimate - 25 Accommodation Works 3 4 0.18 20.0% 80.0% -£300,000 £500,000 £1,000,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? risk/opportunity than number change Cost estimated based on allowance, actual costs may More detailed required to prce the risk, OB level covers at 26 Accommodation Works 5 3 0.17 60.0% 40.0% -£20,000 £200,000 £400,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? differ this stage 27 Stats Review allowances and costs estimate 0.00 0.0% 100.0% #NAME? 0 #NAME? Include in other stats risks 28 Stats Cost estimate makes allowance, actual costs differ 5 4 0.34 60.0% 40.0% £50,000 £500,000 £750,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 29 Stats Delays getting stats diversions to site 3 2 0.05 20.0% 80.0% £20,000 £50,000 £80,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Include in other stats risks 30 Stats Unknown stats require diversion and cause delay 5 4 0.34 60.0% 40.0% £50,000 £500,000 £750,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 31 Preliminaries Temporary land requirements for works Unanticipated additional costs 3 2 0.05 20.0% 80.0% £50,000 £100,000 £300,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Percentage allowance made for Prelims 32 Preliminaries Unknown archeology Design changes leading to cost increase 3 4 0.18 20.0% 80.0% £75,000 £250,000 £750,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Preliminary search undertaken Percentage allowance made for Prelims 33 Preliminaries Pollution events during construction Compnesation 1 3 0.01 0.5% 99.5% £10,000 £50,000 £80,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Percentage allowance made for Prelims Land ownership inquiries commenced ahead of Programme allows for PI 34 Pre-construction Programme Delay to statutory process due to landownership unclear Delay leading to cost increases 2 2 0.03 5.5% 94.5% £10,000 £50,000 £75,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? programme Percentage allowance made for Prelims, no further risk 35 Construction programme delays due to protest 3 2 0.05 20.0% 80.0% £50,000 £100,000 £300,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? allowance applied on top at this stage Programme allows for PI 36 Pre-construction Programme Landowner representatives challenge scheme Public Inquiry required 3 2 0.05 20.0% 80.0% £50,000 £100,000 £200,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 37 General Unknown changes to future design standards 2 2 0.03 5.5% 94.5% £50,000 £75,000 £150,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Minor cost impact Politcal risk - General election in 2015 local elections in Minor cost impact 38 General Delays to scheme result in additional costs 3 3 0.09 20.0% 80.0% £50,000 £200,000 £500,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2018 39 General District Council plans for land around village 1 2 0.01 0.5% 99.5% #NAME? 0 #NAME? Minor cost impact Traffic Management allowed for in estimate, actual may Percentage allowance made for Prelims, no further risk 40 Construction programme 5 2 0.09 60.0% 40.0% -£10,000 £50,000 £100,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? differ allowance applied on top at this stage On-going Scrutiny during development of Business Minor cost impact 41 Pre-construction Programme Requirements to amend business case Increased pre-construction costs 3 2 0.05 20.0% 80.0% £10,000 £30,000 £60,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Case Delay to statutory process due to need to rerun traffic Minor cost impact 42 Pre-construction Programme Delay leading to cost increases 2 3 0.05 5.5% 94.5% £50,000 £100,000 £150,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? model 43 Land and Compensation Risk of Part 1 claims 5 5 0.68 60.0% 40.0% £500,000 £1,100,000 £3,000,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Contigencies identified in estimate - actual cost of land 44 Land and Compensation 4 3 0.13 40.0% 60.0% -£10,000 £150,000 £350,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? and comp differs from estimate Area included therefore potential opportunity Cost estimate assumes EA on board and therefore 45 Land and Compensation excludes cost of flood compensatory. Risk that if they are 2 2 0.03 5.5% 94.5% -£50,000 £0 £50,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Early dialogue initiated not involved the cost of land may need to be included. Flood compensatory removed from scheme which Area included therefore potential opportunity 46 Pre-construction Programme Delay leading to cost increases 2 3 0.05 5.5% 94.5% £30,000 £75,000 £150,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? impacts on management and procurement Area of land is based on estimated areas, actual areas 47 Land and Compensation 3 3 0.09 20.0% 80.0% £50,000 £150,000 £350,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Land identified in outline design may be greater or less. Land and compensation included is based on estimates, 48 Land and Compensation 3 2 0.05 20.0% 80.0% £10,000 £25,000 £50,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? contigencies advised that these may change 49 Land and Compensation Land rates are higher than expected low risk 2 3 0.05 5.5% 94.5% £10,000 £50,000 £200,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Inflation for construction, land, and general may be 50 Inflation Cost inaccuracy 3 4 0.18 20.0% 80.0% £50,000 £750,000 £1,750,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? different from forecast rate Design modified to accommodate consultees Increased cost associated with redesign & 51 Consultation 3 2 0.05 20.0% 80.0% £5,000 £25,000 £75,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? requirements associated works Detailed design modified to accommodate outcome of Increased cost associated with redesign & 52 Safety Audit 2 2 0.03 5.5% 94.5% £5,000 £25,000 £75,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? safety audit associate works Detailed design modified to accommodate outcome of Increased cost associated with redesign & 53 Statutory Procedures 2 3 0.05 5.5% 94.5% £5,000 £20,000 £50,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? statutory procedures associate works 54 Consultation Consultations over Little Hadham traffic calming Modifications arising from local public input 3 2 0.05 20.0% 80.0% £5,000 £25,000 £75,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

A120 Construction and Opportunities Risk Register revised Jan 2014.xlsx 27/02/2014 1 of 3 Refer Mitigation Target ence Statu Risk ID Work Package or Discipline Cause Effect/Risk Description Partially Mitigated Risk Rating Probability Severity Risk Analysis Actions/ Mitigation Measures to be considered Risk Owner Comments Date Num s bers

Probability Impact Forced Probability Severity Risk P1 P0 Min Likely Max Distribution Distribution Sampling Programme implication: time requirement to EIA will determine and costs allowed for Unanticipated protected species constraints requring prepare and submit protected species licence 55 Environmental translocation of species under appropriate licensing via aplications and to gain necessary consent. 2 4 0.10 5.5% 94.5% £25,000 £75,000 £150,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? DEFRA/ English Nature etc Costs associated with preparing the licence and surveys EA may require more stringent design basis 56 Interfaces Design Standards - Environment Agency 2 3 0.05 5.5% 94.5% £30,000 £50,000 £100,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Early dialogue initiated for flood alleviation scheme Contractors overloaded with work. Large differential 57 Financial/ Economical Tender prices higher than expected 2 4 0.10 5.5% 94.5% £500,000 £750,000 £1,500,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? between assumed and actual construction prices 58 Project Management LTB / LEP require amendments to Business Case Additional costs 3 2 0.05 20.0% 80.0% £5,000 £20,000 £40,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 59 Project Management Ineffective project management Programme delays 1 3 0.01 0.5% 99.5% £20,000 £50,000 £75,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? May need to undertake field surveys to collect additional Changes in legislations and data, re-assess scheme impacts, consider additional 60 policy guidance including Programme delays and additional costs 3 4 0.18 20.0% 80.0% £20,000 £100,000 £250,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? requirements for scheme mitigation. Cost and DMRB and WebTAG programme implications Changes in design to modify layout to incorporate 61 Public Inquiry Cost increase 3 3 0.09 20.0% 80.0% £20,000 £50,000 £100,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? comments 62 Programme delay costs Pre-Construction Cost increase 3 4 0.18 20.0% 80.0% £80,000 £240,000 £480,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 63 Programme delay costs Construction Cost increase 4 4 0.26 40.0% 60.0% £130,000 £390,000 £1,560,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 64 Construction costs Pavement cost estimate uncertain Cost increase 5 4 0.34 60.0% 40.0% £200,000 £350,000 £500,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Additional unanticipated services required for EIA 65 Environmental Cost increase 3 4 0.18 20.0% 80.0% £50,000 £200,000 £500,000 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? development

A120 Construction and Opportunities Risk Register revised Jan 2014.xlsx 27/02/2014 2 of 3 @RISK Output Report for Cost(Risk) Performed By: Emma Payne Date: 19 November 2013 16:26:55

Simulation Summary Information Workbook Name A120 Construction and Oppo Number of Simulations 1 Number of Iterations 5000 Number of Inputs 555 Number of Outputs 1 Sampling Type Latin Hypercube Simulation Start Time 19/11/2013 16:26 Simulation Duration 00:00:17 Random # Generator Mersenne Twister Random Seed 1309106799

Summary Statistics for Cost(Risk) Statistics Percentile Minimum 646,244 5% 1,788,489 Maximum 9,049,709 10% 2,107,785 Mean 3,807,807 15% 2,343,899 Std Dev 1,343,136 20% 2,555,971 Variance 1.80401E+12 25% 2,737,286 Skewness 0.245324263 30% 2,914,329 Kurtosis 2.477617434 35% 3,110,050 Median 3,760,592 40% 3,350,140 Mode 3,857,689 45% 3,556,632 Left X 1,788,489 50% 3,760,592 Left P 5% 55% 3,947,802 Right X 6,072,445 60% 4,155,298 Right P 95% 65% 4,356,739 Diff X 4,283,955 70% 4,583,575 Diff P 90% 75% 4,791,196 #Errors 0 80% 5,008,018 Filter Min Off 85% 5,283,637 Filter Max Off 90% 5,637,369 #Filtered 0 95% 6,072,445

Change in Output Statistic for Cost(Risk) Rank Name Lower Upper 1 43 2,739,386 5,518,778 2 50 3,642,117 4,841,409 3 30 3,560,007 4,311,523 4 28 3,551,977 4,270,977 5 25 3,714,829 4,388,082 6 11 3,564,611 4,214,923 7 21 3,549,598 4,165,133 8 16 3,712,493 4,316,323 9 57 3,747,786 4,347,995 10 7 3,666,484 4,162,862 11 32 3,737,512 4,201,394 12 9 3,657,687 4,116,112 13 38 3,752,410 4,147,971 14 26 3,663,474 4,050,128

Appendix C Highways Agency Optimism Bias Tool

MP DIRECTOR'S INSTRUCTION 06/07, ANNEX 1 ver 1.2 final-a Issued: 04-May-07 MP SCHEME COST This supersedes ANNEX 1 of MP DIRECTOR'S INSTRUCTION 07/06 (Version 1.1), which is now withdrawn. SUMMARY FORM (Replaces Appendix 5 in OD Guidance Note 01/03 and ANNEX 4 in MP DIRECTOR'S INSTRUCTION 04/05) NOTE - ALL COST DATA TO BE AT RCTPI Q2/2006 EXCEPT FOR SCHEMES AT (OR ABOUT TO BE AT) WORKS PRICE REVIEWED/CONFIRMED STAGE (ie. TO BE USED ON ALL MP DIRECTORATE SCHEMES Target Cost agreed, Works contractually committed, etc). From Works Price Reviewed / Confirmed stage, all forecasts should be the contractually This proforma is to be re-submitted to MP Programme Control Team (cc SSR Quantity committed costs, at current values. Surveyor, for certification) each time the Scheme Cost Estimate is revised. Forecasts on Cascade should follow the same principles.

1. SCHEME & ESTIMATING DETAILS Scheme Title, PIN and Project Leader Project Leader's Name: Please enter Full Scheme Title, as agreed with NS: Cascade PIN (Capital: Major National or Regional) : A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Description and Classification of the Scheme Date of this Estimate (DD/MM/YYYY): 21/11/2013 Description Give a short description of the scheme 3.9km bypass of the A120 through the village of Little Hadham, Hertfordshire

Classification Is the Scheme categorised as: Widening On Line Offline Bypass Scheme Improvement (eg Junction) Technology Project Operation and Maintenance If Operation and Maintenance, is it: Structural Pavement Maintenance Routine Maintenance Source Data Used For Pricing Method Is your estimate based on: Work Elements (or Packages) Quantities “Bottom-up” Approach If a combination of the above, please give details:

Did you obtain data from: Reference Bill of Quantities from Specific Projects A source of general rates/prices Data Sources If rates were obtained from specific projects, please list:

If rates were obtained from a database or reference book, please give details of source: Name Date

Source of data in Database: Do the source-derived rates: Exclude on-costs (ie. net) Include on-costs Reference Projects Where rates were obtained from a priced Bill of Quantities for a particular project please give details: Price Basis Value Project Name Date VOP Fixed Price (£m)

Scheme Economics What is the current Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) relevant to this estimate ?

Funding Organisation(s) Amount (£) Please list all 3rd Party Funding Contributions expected on this scheme:

A120 OB Calculator 21.11.13.xls Page 1 of 10 Scheme Details Scheme Title A120 Bypass (Little Hadham)

ECC Target Cost (D&B) What procurement method is to be used ? What is the next Critical / Key Project Event (see HA Business Plan events list)? What is the length of the Scheme ? 3.9 Kilometres Long What is the Lane Design Width ? 7.30 Metres How many additional Lane Kilometres will the scheme create ? n/a Additional Lane Kilometres

When is the earliest possible Start of Works n/a How Long is the Construction Period ? n/a years n/a months date ? (eg. March-07)

2. OPTIMISM BIAS SECTION

Please select appropriate Level of Complexity (as listed in CHE Memo 121/03) Standard Scheme / Non-Controversial

Please select appropriate Stage of Preparation (as listed in CHE Memo 121/03) Scheme Conception/Preliminary Business Case (up to OGC2)

Has a HARM Risk Analysis been undertaken? Please select Yes or No : Ye s No -

Please detail the level of HARM analysis completed and taken into account in the Works Cost Estimate

Basic Optimism Bias Addition Factors : Basic Optimism Factor (%) Scheme Type Stage of Preparation Lower bound Upper bound Scheme Conception/Preliminary Business Case (up to OGC2) 15 45 Standard Scheme / Non- Outline Business Case confirmed (OGC 2) 5 25 Controversial Draft Orders published (OGC 3A) 5 N/A Works Price Reviewed / Confirmed (OGC 3B) 3 N/A Scheme Conception/Preliminary Business Case (up to OGC2) 32 65 Non-Standard / Controversial / Tunnels / Outline Business Case confirmed (OGC 2) 15 40 Complicated Structures Draft Orders published (OGC 3A) 8N/A Works Price Reviewed / Confirmed (OGC 3B) 3 N/A

Optimism Bias Mitigation Factors : For schemes prior to Draft Orders, please tick boxes where you have relevant mitigation evidence, in table below: Control Cause Evidence Required Select % Poor planning Delivery fails to meet objectives Workshop undertaken with facilitator independent of project - Lack of innovation Value Management Stated objectives expressed to team/stakeholders 5.00 Stakeholder involvement Critical item programme Optioneering undertaken differentiating using performance criteria - Scope change / late changes in design Buildability issues unknown until construction Desktop study identifies likely risks (comply with HD22 process) 10.00 Site Surveys / investigations Unforeseen service diversions Unforeseen archaeological find Environmental stage two surveys completed and reported -

Fail to sufficiently scope project Workshop carried out with facilitator independent of project 5.00 Contractual disputes Risk Management Uncertainties in scope and risk contingency defined 5.00 Delivery fails to meet objectives Optimistic benefits Evidence risk register is continually updated / risks managed 5.00

Communication plan in place - Identify internal and Third party approvals not granted Potential changes in ministerial/local strategy identified in risks - external approvals and Fail to secure permits, consents approvals prepare timeline Approvals built into project programme - Written communications with key third party stakeholders 2.50

Scope of works, objectives and scheme outputs documented 5.00

Deliverables at key gateways defined 5.00 HA corporate governance/political/standards influences Lack of adequate change control Change control system implemented/experienced Project Leader - Effective governance Funding availability Duration to construction start Adequate funds allocated within specific spend years - Construction duration Detailed programme for development reflecting most likely option 5.00

Detailed programme available from ECI contractor -

Organogram exists 1.67 Contractual disputes Clear roles and Poor communication Procurement route selected - responsibilities Duplication Role of client/consultant expressed in terms of reference -

Cost build-up independently checked & signed 1.67 Estimates cost/benefits Estimates unsound Comparison made on cost build-up and use of benchmarked prices - independently verified Independent check of this checklist - Mitigation Mitigation Gross, Mitigated Optimism Bias calculation : TOTAL 50.8% proportion OB Gross OB = Upper Lower 45.0% 15.0% Difference = 30.0% x 49.2% = 14.8%Lower Bound 29.8% Bound = Bound = + Mitigation OB

Total Optimism Bias which will be applied to this Cost Estimate in Section 7 = 29.8%

A120 OB Calculator 21.11.13.xls Page 2 of 10 3. ROAD CONSTRUCTION TENDER PRICE INDEX (RCTPI or ROADCON) CALCULATION : Please select Location that the scheme is predominantly in: South East

Please select Road Type of work : New Construction

Please select estimated scheme Value £20m - £30m (based upon Works Total '(a)' from Section 5 below : The Scheme forecast cost data is to be entered to a Q2/06 price base. However Q1/05 = 138.7Q2/06 = 171.9 Section 14b of this form will compare how the estimate has changed since Q1/05 (the previous Road Programme reference point). For information, the two Factors and Ratio are: Ratio from Q1/05 to Q2/06 = 1.24

All forecasts are based on Q2 2013 Please provide details of the RCTPI indices calculation you have applied. To calculate RCTPI for other quarters, refer to guidance in HAMIS, @HAMIS/Information Centre/Reference Documents/RCTPI. NOTE: ALL FORECASTS MUST BE BASED ON Q2/2006 UNTIL ADVISED OTHERWISE (Unless at Works Price Reviewed / Confirmed, when current Contractual forecasts to be used)

4. FUTURE INFLATION PROFILES :

If the Scheme is at "Works Price Reviewed / Confirmed" or beyond, actual Contractual forecast costs are to be entered into Section 5 of this form and future inflation will not be added on to the estimate. In this case the figures in the table below will default to "N/A". If the Scheme is prior to "Works Price Reviewed / Confirmed" all costs should be entered to a common price index, based upon RCTPI for Q2/06. The form then adds on future inflation using the 'HA Inflation Forecast' profile. For comparison purposes, at the end of Section 10, the estimate is also calculated using the Treasury future inflation profile (2.5%/2.7%). Finally, to enable Project Teams to assess the sensitivity of future inflation, an optional column is provided below for them to enter their own future inflation profile. The effect of using this user-defined profile is also compared at the end of Section 10.

HA Inflation Forecast HM Treasury Profile User-defined Profile Year Profile (for comparison only) (for comparison only) (%) (%) (%) NOTE: Q2/06 to mid-2007-08 6.4% 3.1% Q2/06 to mid-2007-08 2008-09 5.2% 2.7% is 1.25 years at 5.1% 2009-10 4.5% 2.7% 2010-11 4.0% 2.7% 2011-12 4.0% 2.7% 2012-13 4.0% 2.7% 2013-14 4.0% 2.7% 2014-15 4.0% 2.7% 2015-16 4.0% 2.7% 2016-17 4.0% 2.7% 2017-18 4.0% 2.7% 2018-19 4.0% 2.7% 2019-20 4.0% 2.7% 2020-21 4.0% 2.7% 2021-22 4.0% 2.7%

A120 OB Calculator 21.11.13.xls Page 3 of 10

Appendix D Environmental Appraisal Report

Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

REP/225805/ENV001

P02 | 11 December 2013

Job number 225805-31

Ove Arup & Partners Scotland Ltd Scotstoun House South Queensferry Edinburgh EH30 9SE United Kingdom www.arup.com

Document Verification

Job title A120 Little Hadham Job number 225805-31 Document title Environmental Appraisal File reference

Document ref REP/225805/ENV001 Revision Date Filename A120 Environmental Appraisal Report.docx Draft 1 1 Aug Description First draft 2013

Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Various Authors Chris Stocks Mick Hall

Signature Issue 12 Nov Filename A120 Environmental Appraisal Report Issue 12 11 13.docx 2013 Description

Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Various Authors Chris Stocks Mick Hall

Signature P02 11 Dec Filename A120 Environmental Appraisal Report Issue P02 10 12 13.docx 2013 Description Amended following client comments

Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name Various Authors Chris Stocks Mick Hall

Signature

Filename Description

Prepared by Checked by Approved by Name

Signature

Issue Document Verification with Document 

REP/225805/ENV001 | P02 | 11 December 2013

J:\225000\225805-00 HCC CST\225805-31\4 INTERNAL PROJECT DATA\4-05 REPORTS\A120 LITTLE HADHAM BYPASS\ENVIRONMENTAL\A120 ENVIRONMENTAL APPRAISAL REPORT ISSUE P02 11 12 13.DOCX

Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

Contents

Page

1 Introduction 2

2 Methodology 2

3 Appraisal Summary Table 4

4 Supporting Worksheets & Assessments 6 4.1 Noise 6 4.2 Local Air Quality 10 4.3 Greenhouse Gases 14 4.4 Landscape 16 4.5 Townscape 25 4.6 Heritage of Historic Resources 32 4.7 Biodiversity 35 4.8 Water Environment 42 4.9 Physical Fitness 45 4.10 Journey Ambience 46

5 Appraisal of the A120 Little Hadham bypass preferred option 47 5.1 Noise 47 5.2 Air Quality 50 5.3 Greenhouse Gases 59 5.4 Landscape 61 5.5 Townscape 66 5.6 Heritage and Historic Resources 69 5.7 Biodiversity 70 5.8 Water Environment 74 5.9 Physical Fitness 77 5.10 Journey Ambience 80

REP/225805/ENV001 | P02 | 11 December 2013

J:\225000\225805-00 HCC CST\225805-31\4 INTERNAL PROJECT DATA\4-05 REPORTS\A120 LITTLE HADHAM BYPASS\ENVIRONMENTAL\A120 ENVIRONMENTAL APPRAISAL REPORT ISSUE P02 11 12 13.DOCX

Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

1 Introduction

This report provides the findings of the environmental appraisal that has been undertaken to accompany the Business Case for the A120 Bypass (Little Hadham). This environmental summary appraisal document is a supporting volume to the Arup report entitled A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Business Case. That report describes the process of developing the existing preferred route option upon which this environmental appraisal was based. 2 Methodology

This Appraisal follows the Department for Transport (DfT) Web Based Transport Analysis Guidance (WebTAG) methodology which is appropriate for major highway and public transport schemes. The guidance should be seen as a requirement for all projects/studies that require government approval. WebTAG provides a formal mechanism for the appraisal of transport schemes against the Government’s 5 core objectives for transport. An appraisal of the environment core objective is supported by the consideration of the following 10 sub-objectives:  Noise;  Local Air Quality;  Greenhouse Gases;  Landscape;  Townscape;  Heritage of Historic Resources;  Biodiversity;  Water Environment;  Physical Fitness;  Journey Ambience. The appraisal of the preferred route option was undertaken and key results entered onto individual supporting worksheets, so that the context behind the appraisal score can be understood. The assessment scores of the individual appraisals were then carried forward, with qualitative/quantitative scores of significance, into a single Appraisal Summary Table (AST). A TAG appraisal is dependent upon the level of information and data that is readily available. Where there was insufficient information/data to complete AST’s for individual sub-objectives, these were supported by qualitative comments to provide some detail as to the current understanding and the potential level of impact.

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The appraisal of the environment sub-objectives was undertaken by discipline specific environmental specialists having appropriate experience. These specialists completed the appraisal in line with the appropriate TAG guidance for each sub-objective or using methodologies from the Design Manual or Roads and Bridges where appropriate. There was no consultation with statutory/non- statutory bodies or consents authorities at this stage as scheme design is still under early development.

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3 Appraisal Summary Table

Description Problems Present Value of Costs to Public Sub-objective Qualitative impacts Quantitative impacts Assessment

Noise Due to the nature of the bypass, some traffic flows still remain along Net difference in people Net present value of noise the A120 and therefore noise exposure to dwellings along this route annoyed in the longer term as a proposal (60 year period):.- remains similar with and without the scheme. It is on this basis that a result of the scheme, compared £266,499. net gain has not been achieved in the ‘do something’ scenario. to the Do-Minimum situation An increase in average traffic speeds along the A120 in the ‘do scenario in the 15th year = 3. something’ scenario influences the noise exposure level attributing to the increase. Local Air Quality The proposed scheme is anticipated to lead to an overall improvement Air quality would be improved n/a in air quality (exposure to PM10 and NO2 concentrations) and it does (reduced pollutant not affect any Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs). concentrations) at properties for both NO2 and PM10 concentrations.

Greenhouse Gases Total CO2 emissions are expected to decrease with the operation of the Reduction in CO2 emissions over approximately £3 million proposed scheme. 60 year appraisal period = 66,484 tonnes Landscape There will be a slight adverse impact on Little Hadham and individual n/a farmsteads and private houses adjacent to the route along with limited indirect visual impact from existing housing towards proposed route. At the eastern and western extents where the alignment meets the A120 there will be a moderate adverse intrusion at Hadham Park, Hadham Lodge, Savernake and Plantings Cottages. Generally any potential impact of the alignment has been reduced through careful positioning of both the vertical and horizontal road design which when coupled with the integrated landscape mitigation proposals contribute to filtering adverse visual impacts on the identified residential and commercial dwellings Townscape There will be moderate beneficial impact on the settlement of Little n/a n/a Hadham and individual farmsteads and private houses adjacent to the Environment route and limited indirect visual impact from existing housing along

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route.

Heritage of This assessment is considered to pose a Moderate adverse overall n/a n/a Historic Resources impact, based upon desk-based information and professional judgement alone. Biodiversity The appraisal has identified that there is likely to be slight adverse n/a n/a effects to the hedgerow network and watercourses along the alignment. Further ecological surveys are recommended to further inform the assessment. Water The unmitigated scheme would have a significant impact on the surface n/a n/a Environment and groundwater environment as surface water discharges would increase potentially increasing downstream flood risk, floodplain storage across the River Ash system and there would be a detrimental effect on water quality and groundwater quality. However, by incorporating sustainable drainage and taking due regards of the underlying principle aquifer (limiting infiltration using liners) the impact of the receiving ground and surface waters can be strictly limited in such a way that the impact would be minor. Physical Fitness It is considered unlikely that the number and length of journeys, either n/a Neutral within Little Hadham for cyclists and pedestrians or through Little Hadham for cyclists, will change significantly. Journey Ambience The bypass provides the opportunity to significantly increase the n/a moderate beneficial quality of traveller views and reduce driver stress.

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4 Supporting Worksheets & Assessments

4.1 Noise

Option Name: Option 1 Year: 2015 Mode: Road

Opening Year 15th Year After Opening Noise Estimated Population Estimated Population Estimated Population Exposed Estimated Population Exposed – Level Exposed – Without scheme Exposed – – Without scheme With scheme With scheme (LAeq, 18hr dB)) <45 0 0 0 0 45<48 13 4 20 14 48<51 13 21 35 27 51<54 27 16 38 43 54<57 65 53 63 62 57<60 32 46 19 26 60<63 19 21 8 7 63<66 10 16 5 9 66<69 7 6 4 4 69<72 6 6 0 0 72<75 0 3 0 0 75<78 0 0 0 0 78<81 0 0 0 0 81+ 0 0 0 0

TAG Noise Spreadsheet:

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Current Appraisal Year: 2013

Proposal Opening Year: 2019

Average Household Size: 2.36

Project: Road

No. of households experiencing 'without scheme' & 'with scheme' noise levels (given in dBLeq) in Opening Year

With 45- 48- 51- 54- 57- 60- 63- 66- 69- 72- 75- 78- scheme <45 47.9 50.9 53.9 56.9 59.9 62.9 65.9 68.9 71.9 74.9 77.9 80.9 81+ Without scheme <45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 45-47.9 0 4 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48-50.9 0 0 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 51-53.9 0 0 0 15 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 54-56.9 0 0 0 0 41 24 0 0 0 0 0 57-59.9 0 0 0 0 0 22 10 0 0 0 0 60-62.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 8 0 0 0 63-65.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 2 0 0 66-68.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 69-71.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 72-74.9 75-77.9 78-80.9 81+ Number of households experiencing noise levels during the opening year (2019).

No. of households experiencing 'without scheme' & 'with scheme' noise levels (given in dBLeq) in 15th Year After Opening

With <4 45- 48- 51- 54- 57- 60- 63- 66- 69- 72- 75- 78- 81 scheme 5 47.9 50.9 53.9 56.9 59.9 62.9 65.9 68.9 71.9 74.9 77.9 80.9 +

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Without scheme <45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 45-47.9 0 14 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 48-50.9 0 0 21 14 0 0 0 0 0 51-53.9 0 0 0 29 9 0 0 0 0 54-56.9 0 0 0 0 53 10 0 0 0 57-59.9 0 0 0 0 0 16 3 0 0 60-62.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 63-65.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 66-68.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 69-71.9 72-74.9 75-77.9 78-80.9 81+ Number of households experiencing noise levels during the 15th year after opening (2034).

Net Present Value of Noise of Proposal -£226,499.00 *positive value reflects a net benefit (i.e. noise reduction) (60 Year Period) Estimated Population Annoyed (Without Scheme): 46 Estimated Population Annoyed (With Scheme): 49 Net Noise Annoyance Change in 15th Year After Opening (no. of people): 3 *positive value reflects an increase in people annoyed by noise Traffic Data Sources: The forecast flows are based on 2013 traffic counts with NTM growth factors applied adjusted for local Hertfordshire growth rates from TEMPRO

Population Data Sources: House counts from OS mapping based on an average household size

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Assumptions  National average household size = 2.36 (taken from WebTAG 3.3.2 Guidance August 2012 which cites national average from 2001 Census).  Traffic flows along Albury Road and B1004 remain the same in the ‘Do Something’ scenario. Assessment scores: Net difference in people annoyed in the longer term as a result of the scheme, compared to the Do-Minimum situation scenario in the 15th year = 3. Net present value of noise proposal (60 year period): -£266,499.00. Qualitative Comments: Due to the nature of the bypass, substantial traffic flows still remain along the A120 and therefore noise exposure to dwellings along this route remains similar with and without the scheme. It is on this basis that a net gain has not been achieved in the ‘do something’ scenario. An increase in average traffic speeds along the A120 in the ‘do something’ scenario influences the noise exposure level attributing to the increase seen in Tables 3 and 4.

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4.2 Local Air Quality

Local air quality PM10 results for 2019

PM10 A120 Little Hadham Bypass 0–50 m 50-100 m 100-150 m 150-200 m 0-200 m Assessment year: 2019 (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v=i+ii+iii+iv) Properties (amin) 90 29 25 9 153 Properties (asome) 90 29 25 9 153 at 20m at 70m at 115m at 175m PM concentration at average point within band for do- 10 16.5 15.7 15.5 15.9 n/a minimum (bmin) PM concentration at average point within band for do- 10 16.0 15.6 15.5 15.7 n/a something (bsome)

Do-minimum PM10 assessment (c = amin*bmin) 1,485 454 387 143 Total route assess PM10 (I): 2,469

Do-something PM10 assessment (c = asome*bsome) 1,436 452 386 141 Total route assess PM10 (II): 2,416

Net total route assessment for PM10 (II-I) -52.90

Local air quality NO2 results for 2019

NO2 A120 Little Hadham Bypass 0–50 m 50-100 m 100-150 m 150-200 m 0-200 m Assessment year: 2019 (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v=i+ii+iii+iv) Properties (amin) 90 29 25 9 153 Properties (asome) 90 29 25 9 153 at 20m at 70m at 115m at 175m NO concentration at average point within band for do- 2 12.3 9.7 8.9 8.8 n/a minimum (bmin) NO concentration at average point within band for do- 2 9.6 8.9 8.6 8.5 n/a something (bsome)

Do-minimum NO2 assessment (c = amin*bmin) 1,107 282 223 79 Total route assess NO2 (I): 1,691

Do-something NO2 assessment (c = asome*bsome) 866 258 216 77 Total route assess NO2 (II): 1,417

Net total route assessment for NO2 (II-I) -274.03

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Local air quality PM10 results for 2024

PM10 A120 Little Hadham Bypass 0–50 m 50-100 m 100-150 m 150-200 m 0-200 m Assessment year: 2024 (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v=i+ii+iii+iv) Properties (amin) 90 29 25 9 153 Properties (asome) 90 29 25 9 153 at 20m at 70m at 115m at 175m PM concentration at average point within band for do- 10 16.1 15.2 15.1 15.5 n/a minimum (bmin) PM concentration at average point within band for do- 10 15.6 15.2 15.0 15.3 n/a something (bsome)

Do-minimum PM10 assessment (c = amin*bmin) 1,448 442 377 139 Total route assess PM10 (I): 2,406

Do-something PM10 assessment (c = asome*bsome) 1,401 440 376 138 Total route assess PM10 (II): 2,355

Net total route assessment for PM10 (II-I) -50.76

Local air quality NO2 results for 2024

NO2 A120 Little Hadham Bypass 0–50 m 50-100 m 100-150 m 150-200 m 0-200 m Assessment year: 2024 (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v=i+ii+iii+iv) Properties (amin) 90 29 25 9 153 Properties (asome) 90 29 25 9 153 at 20m at 70m at 115m at 175m NO concentration at average point within band for do- 2 11.2 8.7 7.9 7.7 n/a minimum (bmin) NO concentration at average point within band for do- 2 8.6 7.9 7.6 7.5 n/a something (bsome)

Do-minimum NO2 assessment (c = amin*bmin) 1,012 252 197 70 Total route assess NO2 (I): 1,531

Do-something NO2 assessment (c = asome*bsome) 775 228 190 68 Total route assess NO2 (II): 1,261

Net total route assessment for NO2 (II-I) -269.58

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Local air quality PM10 results for 2034

PM10 A120 Little Hadham Bypass 0–50 m 50-100 m 100-150 m 150-200 m 0-200 m Assessment year: 2034 (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v=i+ii+iii+iv) Properties (amin) 90 29 25 9 153 Properties (asome) 90 29 25 9 153 at 20m at 70m at 115m at 175m PM concentration at average point within band for do- 10 16.1 15.2 15.0 15.4 n/a minimum (bmin) PM concentration at average point within band for do- 10 15.5 15.1 15.0 15.2 n/a something (bsome)

Do-minimum PM10 assessment (c = amin*bmin) 1,447 441 375 139 Total route assess PM10 (I): 2,401

Do-something PM10 assessment (c = asome*bsome) 1,398 439 375 137 Total route assess PM10 (II): 2,349

Net total route assessment for PM10 (II-I) -52.30

Table 1 Local air quality NO2 results for 2034

NO2 A120 Little Hadham Bypass 0–50 m 50-100 m 100-150 m 150-200 m 0-200 m Assessment year: 2034 (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v=i+ii+iii+iv) Properties (amin) 90 29 25 9 153 Properties (asome) 90 29 25 9 153 at 20m at 70m at 115m at 175m NO concentration at average point within band for do- 2 11.1 8.5 7.6 7.5 n/a minimum (bmin) NO concentration at average point within band for do- 2 8.5 7.6 7.4 7.3 n/a something (bsome)

Do-minimum NO2 assessment (c = amin*bmin) 1,002 246 191 67 Total route assess NO2 (I): 1,506

Do-something NO2 assessment (c = asome*bsome) 763 222 184 66 Total route assess NO2 (II): 1,234

Net total route assessment for NO2 (II-I) -271.96

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Reference Sources: Highways Agency (2007) Design Manual for Roads and Bridges: Volume 11 HA 207/07 Department for Transport (2012) The Air Quality Sub-objective: Tag Unit 3.3.3

Quantitative measures:

Air quality would be improved (reduced pollutant concentrations) at properties for both NO2 and PM10 concentrations.

Assessment scores:

The assessment score for the opening year of 2019 is -52.90 for PM10 and -274.03 for NO2.

The assessment score for 5 years after opening (i.e. 2024) is -50.76 for PM10 and -269.58 for NO2.

The assessment score for 15 years after opening (i.e. 2034) is -52.30 for PM10 and -271.96 for NO2.

Qualitative measures:

The proposed scheme is anticipated to lead to an overall improvement in air quality (exposure to PM10 and NO2 concentrations) and it does not affect any Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs).

No properties experience exceedance of the air quality standards for NO2 and PM10 as a result of the proposed scheme. No properties are being constructed or demolished as a result of the proposed scheme.

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4.3 Greenhouse Gases Summary of Greenhouse Gasses assessment A120 Little Hadham Bypass Present value base year 2010 Current year 2013 Proposal opening year 2019 Project Road

Overall assessment score Net Present Value (NPV) of CO emissions 2 £3,143,477 (60 year period)

Sensitivity analysis

Upper estimate NPV of CO2 emissions £4,836,696

Lower estimate NPV of CO2 emissions £1,450,257 positive value reflects a net benefit (i.e. CO2 emissions reduction)

Quantitative assessment

Change in CO2 emissions over 60 year appraisal period -66,484 tonnes Of which traded 0 Change in CO emissions in opening year (between ‘with scheme’ and 2 -791 tonnes ‘without scheme’ scenarios)

Qualitative comments: Only non-traded emissions have been included in the calculations.

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Data Sources: Department for Transport (2012) The Greenhouse Gases Sub-objective: Tag Unit 3.3.5 Emissions calculations were undertaken using Defra’s Emissions Factor Toolkit v5.2c (January 2013), available from: http://laqm.defra.gov.uk/review-and- assessment/tools/emissions.html#eft

Assessment (positive/neutral/negative):

The net present value for CO2 emissions for the proposed scheme is approximately £3 million, a positive value which reflects a net benefit in emissions.

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4.4 Landscape

Features Description Scale it Matters Rarity Importance Substitutability Impact Additional Mitigation Pattern A120 Standon Road to Albury End Local and up to Common at The alignment avoids Yes within 10-15 With the introduction of a The landscape is characterised by strongly regional level. local scale. nationally recognised or years three armed roundabout at undulating river valley slopes with a flat locally protected approx. 100mAOD on the valley floor. Steeper, undulating slopes landscapes. The alignment A120 Standon Road a two define the valley sides, some of which are will result in the loss and lane highway passes over the densely vegetated others wide and open, severance of open, arable open countryside gently arable fields that are irregular in shape but fields and field boundaries falling to approx. 80mAOD generally medium/large in scale are of mature native at Albury Road. bounded with well managed hedgerows. hedgerows and hedgerow Careful positioning of the There is little pasture. trees. alignment would minimise The loss of these elements loss of existing local field will be experienced at a pattern coupled with local level. replacement tree and hedgerow planting to the top of cutting and embankments to reflect existing field pattern boundaries. The scheme alignment will be predominantly in cutting so little opportunity to avoid severance of field pattern. The existing landform has good capacity to accommodate the proposed

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Features Description Scale it Matters Rarity Importance Substitutability Impact Additional Mitigation alignment Slight adverse Albury End to Albury Road Local and up to Common at The alignment avoids Yes within 10-15 The scheme alignment Forming part of the ‘Upper Ash Valley’1 regional level. local scale. nationally recognised or years continues across the local character area the landscape is local landscape protected landscape partly on characterised by a more open yet less areas. The alignment will embankment that will remain defined watercourse with scattered result in the loss of open unplanted whilst continuing woodland blocks on upper edges of valley arable fields and the loss of in cutting north of Hadham slopes. Field patterns within the valley are field boundaries of mature Hall and Mill Mound. typically small /medium scale with some native hedgerows and Slight adverse areas of larger field amalgamation within trees. the vicinity of the alignment. The loss of these elements will be seen at a local level.

Hadham Hall to Hadham Park and farm Local and up to Common at The alignment avoids Yes within 10-15 The alignment continues in Consider access regional level. local scale. nationally recognised or years cutting to ch. 2550.000 replacement tree and Forming part of the ‘Hadham Plateau’2 locally protected where it continues primarily hedgerow planting local character area the landscape is landscapes. The alignment at grade to ch.3100.000 at along the top of characterised by its generally flat will result in the loss and approx. 100mAOD. Existing cutting and appearance punctuated with very gentle severance of open, arable mature hedges and trees embankments to undulations and similarly gentle slopes fields and field boundaries defining field boundaries screen vehicular towards the River Ash valley floor. of mature native ensure the alignment will be movements during Pattern is distinguished by large, hedgerows and hedgerow screened and its presence day and night. agglomerated, arable geometric fields trees. reduced.

1 Area 147 Upper Ash Valley – East Herts District landscape Character Assessment 2 Area 150 Hadham Plateau – East Herts District landscape Character Assessment

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Features Description Scale it Matters Rarity Importance Substitutability Impact Additional Mitigation interspersed with occasional woodland The loss of these elements Moderate adverse blocks will be experienced at a local level. Hadham Park and Church End Farm Local and up to Common at Where the alignment re- Yes within 25-50 From ch. 3100.000 the Consider low acces) to junction with A120 regional level. local scale. joins the A120 Stortford years. alignment severs arable fields sodium lanterns at Forming part of the ‘Hadham Plateau’ Road it passes through largely at grade and roundabout with local character area the landscape is green belt designation that 100mAOD. It separates reduced height characterised by its general flat appearance is important at regional and between Hadham Park and columns where with very gentle undulations and falls national level. Hadham Lodge two large possible. towards the River Ash valleyfloor. residential properties that Consider Typified by large, geometric fields defined within the Green Belt will replacement tree and by hedgerow boundary interspersed with result in the loss of this hedgerow planting occasional woodland blocks designation. The alignment along the top of meets the A120 at a final cutting and three arm roundabout embankments to adjacent to Plantings screen vehicular cottages. movements during Large adverse day and night.

Tranquillity A120 Standon Road to Albury End Local/Regional. Common Although wide open No Not wholly intrusive the Consider low The current A120 Standon Road and agricultural fields with proposals will impact on sodium lanterns at Albury End Road within Little Hadham mature trees and views into and across the roundabout with are the primary vehicular routes with hedgerows and natural landscape. There will be reduced height continuous vehicular movements. Public looking blocks of further conflict with local columns where right of way off Albury End Road passes a woodland are visual authority policy and cannot possible. disused pit and kiln that formed part of the elements within the be completely mitigated for brick making industry in Little Hadham, landscape that support the because the nature of the splitting and crossing the proposed concept of tranquillity. proposal itself.

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Features Description Scale it Matters Rarity Importance Substitutability Impact Additional Mitigation alignment, the area forms part of ‘GBC2 - The background noise of Slight adverse Rural area beyond green belt’3. low flying aircraft taking At Albury End Wood the location is off and landing at Stansted tranquil with the exception of audible along with HV power noise from airplane traffic using Stansted cables, roads and scattered airport 10 kms to the east. houses and development visually detract the tranquillity of the setting. Although birdsong can be heard along with wildlife, natural sounds and silence according to direction, noise from low flying aircraft, vehicular noise from the A120 and farming machinery impact on the levels of tranquillity. Therefore the balance in this location leans more greatly towards a less tranquil environment. Albury End to Albury Road Local/Regional Common As above No Not wholly intrusive the N/A Relatively inaccessible except for farm proposals will impact on machinery and a bridleway access. The views into and across the alignment crosses arable fields presenting landscape. There will be a largely rural tranquil environment with further conflict with local

3 East Herts District – Local Development PLAN

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Features Description Scale it Matters Rarity Importance Substitutability Impact Additional Mitigation the exception of audible noise from authority policy that cannot airplane traffic using Stansted airport 10 be completely mitigated for kms to the east. because the nature of the proposal itself. Slight adverse Hadham Hall to Hadham Park and farm Local/Regional Common As above No Not wholly intrusive the N/A access proposals will impact on Relatively inaccessible except for farm views into and across the machinery as alignment crosses arable landscape. There will be fields, a semi tranquil feel with frequent further conflict with local low droning noise from airplanes circling authority policy that cannot to land at Stansted airport to the east. be completely mitigated for because the nature of the proposal itself. Slight adverse Hadham Park and farm access to junction Local Common As above No Not wholly intrusive the Consider low with A120 proposals will impact on sodium lanterns at Access to a number of residential views into and across the roundabout with properties Hadham Park, Hadham Lodge landscape. There will be reduced height and Plantings Cottages off the old Hadham further conflict with local columns where Road. Mature trees and woodland blocks authority policy that cannot possible. along with orientation of property provide be completely mitigated for a semi tranquil setting with the elevated because the nature of the A120 present in the background. The low proposal itself. droning noise from airplanes circling to Moderate adverse land at Stansted airport to the east can still be heard.

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Features Description Scale it Matters Rarity Importance Substitutability Impact Additional Mitigation Cultural A120 Standon Road to Albury Road. Local Common High at a local level Yes Although not very intrusive N/A The current A120 Standon Road and protected designations and proposals will impact on Albury End Road within Little Hadham listings protect the historic certain views into and across are the primary vehicular routes with core of the village. the area. The alignment continuous vehicular movements. Public cannot be completely right of way off Albury End Road passes a mitigated for because of the disused pit and kiln that once formed part nature of the proposal itself of the brick making industry in Little or the character of the Hadham this is surrounded by residential landscape through which it properties, with the area being classified as passes. ‘GBC2 - Rural area beyond green belt’. Slight adverse Albury Road to Hadham hall Local Common High at a local and Yes Although not very intrusive N/A Contains Hadham Hall to the east of Little regional level designations proposals will impact on Hadham that formed the centre of a 14th and listings protect the certain views into and across century estate that included 980 acres of historic value of Hadham the area. The alignment farmland, St Cecilia Church, Hadham Park Hall. cannot be completely and Hadham Lodge. Interspersed between mitigated for because of the these are Church Farm and extensive farm nature of the proposal itself buildings and barns. or the character of the landscape through which it passes. Slight adverse Hadham Hall to Hadham Park and farm Local Common Important at local level. Yes Although not very intrusive N/A access proposals will impact on Between Hadham hall and Hadham Park a certain views into and across series of un-amalgamated fields retaining the area. The alignment original size and scale. cannot be completely mitigated for because of the

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

Features Description Scale it Matters Rarity Importance Substitutability Impact Additional Mitigation nature of the proposal itself or the character of the landscape through which it passes. Slight adverse Hadham Park and farm access to junction Local Common Where the alignment re- Yes Although not very intrusive N/A with A120 joins the A120 Stortford proposals will impact on At the eastern end of the alignment there is Road it will pass through certain views into and across Hadham Park and Hadham Lodge along green belt designation that the area. The alignment with Savernake and Plantings cottages that is important at regional and cannot be completely would have formed part of the wider estate national level. mitigated for because of the dwellings nature of the proposal itself or the character of the landscape through which it passes. Slight adverse

Land Cover A120 Standon Road to Albury End Local Common Common Yes The proposals although not N/A The landscape is characterised by strongly visually intrusive, will undulating river valley slopes with a flat impact on certain views into valley floor. Steeper, undulating slopes and across the area. define the valley sides which are an Slight adverse intensively farmed arable landscape of fields, irregular in shape but generally medium/large in scale, bounded with well managed hedgerows. Albury End to Albury Road Local Common Common Yes The proposals although not N/A The landscape is characterised by wider visually intrusive, will

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

Features Description Scale it Matters Rarity Importance Substitutability Impact Additional Mitigation open undulating slopes which are an impact on certain views into intensively farmed arable landscape of and across the area. fields, irregular in shape but generally Slight adverse medium/large in scale, bounded with well managed hedgerows. Hadham Hall to Hadham Park and farm Local Common Common Yes The proposals although not N/A access visually intrusive, will The landscape is characterised by wider impact on certain views into open undulating slopes which are an and across the area. intensively farmed arable landscape of Slight adverse fields, irregular in shape but generally medium/large in scale, bounded with well managed hedgerows. Hadham Park and farm access to junction Local Common Common Yes The proposals although not N/A with A120 visually intrusive, will The landscape is characterised by wider impact on certain views into open undulating slopes which are an and across the area, affect an intensively farmed arable landscape of area of recognised landscape fields, irregular in shape but generally quality and conflict with medium/large in scale, bounded with well local policies for protecting managed hedgerows. Woodland is the local character of the generally scarce however; Bloodhounds’ area. Wood and High Wood are prominent Slight adverse elements.

Summary of Characterised by wide open undulating Local Common Common In part The proposals although not character arable landscape fields that are irregular in visually intrusive, will shape and medium/large in scale, bounded impact on certain views into

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

Features Description Scale it Matters Rarity Importance Substitutability Impact Additional Mitigation with well managed hedgerows. The A120 and across the area and will Standon Road is the primary vehicular affect an area of recognised route through the study area. landscape quality and Development within Little Hadham is conflict with local policies controlled by a conservation area that protect the local designation. Culturally Hadham Hall to character of the area. the east of Little Hadham formed the centre of a 14th century estate that included 980 acres of farmland, St Cecilia Church, Hadham Park and Hadham Lodge. Interspersed between these are Church End Farm and associated farm buildings and barns. The landscape is relatively inaccessible except for farm machinery and has a semi tranquil feel disturbed with frequent low droning noise from airplanes circling to land at Stansted airport to the east. At the eastern end of the alignment the alignment passes through green belt areas adjacent to this designation is ‘GBC2 - Rural area beyond green belt’ that ensures any development remains sensitive to location. Reference Source(s): WebTag TAG Unit 3.3.7 the Landscape Sub-Objective, Department for Transport

Summary assessment score:

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

Moderate adverse.

Qualitative comments: There will be a slight adverse impact on Little Hadham and individual farmsteads and private houses adjacent to the route along with limited indirect visual impact from existing housing towards proposed route. At the eastern and western extents where the alignment meets the A120 there will be a moderate adverse intrusion at Hadham Park, Hadham Lodge, Savernake and Plantings Cottages. Although not wholly intrusive the proposals impact on views into and across the landscape. There will be conflict with local and national policy that cannot be completely mitigated for because of the nature of the proposal itself. At either eastern or western extents where the alignment meets the A120 there will be visual intrusion. Hadham Park, Hadham Lodge, Savernake and Plantings Cottages at the eastern end of the alignment will be mitigated with native tree and shrub planting this will only begin to have effect between 5-10yrs after planting. Generally any potential impact of the alignment has been reduced through careful positioning of both the vertical and horizontal road design which when coupled with the integrated landscape mitigation proposals contribute to filtering adverse visual impacts on the identified residential and commercial dwellings

4.5 Townscape

Features Description Scale it Rarity Importance Substitutability Changes in do Impact Additional Matters minimum Mitigation Layout Little Hadham, Church End and Hadham Hall to Local Common Common Where Designations Settlements Hadham Park and Hadham Lodge individual and listings Little Hadham village centre properties are protect the Church End Settlement: Little Hadham/Church End listed or within historic core of Hadham Hall Little Hadham is the main settlement divided by conservation the village Proposals enable a sense of place the east/west A120 Standon Road/Stortford Road areas although and scale to be restored. Allow for and Albury Road to the north. The River Ash substitutability development on a sense of quality to be restored passes through Little Hadham from north to will be limited. the edges and through sensitive design. south. The main village core consists of Outside of these sympathetic Characteristic features are enhanced

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

Features Description Scale it Rarity Importance Substitutability Changes in do Impact Additional Matters minimum Mitigation dwellings constructed between 1500-1726 where designations infill may be through use of local materials. these are either listed or form part of the wider substitutability possible. Moderate beneficial conservation area. Beyond the conservation area may be possible the dwellings appear to be generally modern to Church End, Hadham Hall and the south whilst along Albury Road there are outlying buildings many period homes which become increasingly The alignment is likely to impact on more modern including 20c towards the edge of the visual amenity of residential settlement. Church end up the hill towards dwellings. The intervention of the Bishops Stortford is St Cecilia Church the rectory alignment between Hadham Park and Church End Farm. and Hadham Lodge is in cutting yet at the roundabout joining the A120 Residential properties: Hadham Hall to the east of will be screened with bunding and Little Hadham formed the centre of a 14th century native tree and shrub planting to estate that included 980 acres of farmland, St reduce visual impact. Cecilia Church, Hadham Park and Hadham Moderate adverse Lodge. Interspersed between these are Church Farm and extensive farm buildings and barns. At the eastern end of the alignment there are is Hadham Park and Hadham Lodge along with Savernake and Plantings cottages that would have formed part of the wider estate dwellings Density and Village scale within Little Hadham into a wider Local Common Common Yes Change is Neutral mix agriculture environment with individual possible but dwellings. unpredictable. Scale Little Hadham Local Common Common Yes Develop Little Hadham Mainly two storey residential dwellings clustered understanding Proposals enable a sense of place around the historic central crossroads expanding of Little and scale to be restored. Allow for to the north along Albury Road and south Hadham and a sense of quality to be restored

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

Features Description Scale it Rarity Importance Substitutability Changes in do Impact Additional Matters minimum Mitigation adjacent to the River Ash. surrounding through sensitive design. area to Characteristic features are enhanced Church End, Hadham Hall accommodate through use of local materials. Further sporadic development including extensive additional Moderate beneficial large scale and prominent farm buildings at development. Church End Farm. Hadham Hall to the east of Church End, Hadham Hall Little Hadham a large scale redisdential Maintains existing character in an development formed the centre of a 14th century area which is not a designated estate that included 980 acres of farmland, St townscape Cecilia Church. Neutral

Residential properties Residential properties Hadham Park and Hadham Lodge along with The proposals are out of scale, Savernake and Plantings cottages would have visually intrusive and cannot be formed part of the wider estate dwellings fully mitigated for, will have an adverse impact on recognised quality and important characteristic elements. Moderate adverse Appearance Little Hadham Local Common Common Yes Designations Little Hadham 15-17c historic wooden framed central village and listings Proposals enable a sense of place core with increasingly modern housing styles protect the and scale to be restored. Allow for reaching edge of settlement. historic core of a sense of quality to be restored the village through sensitive design. Church End, Hadham Hall although Characteristic features are enhanced Historic buildings within the wider landscape that development on through use of local materials. formed the Hadham Hall estate. the edges and Moderate beneficial sympathetic

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

Features Description Scale it Rarity Importance Substitutability Changes in do Impact Additional Matters minimum Mitigation Residential properties infill may be Church End, Hadham Hall Historic buildings within the wider landscape that possible. Proposals enable a sense of place formed the Hadham Hall estate and scale to be restored. Allow for a sense of quality to be restored through sensitive design. Characteristic features are enhanced through use of local materials. Moderate beneficial

Residential properties The proposals are out of scale, visually intrusive and cannot be fully mitigated for, will have an adverse impact on recognised quality and important characteristic elements. Moderate adverse Human Little Hadham Local Common Common Yes Change is Little Hadham interaction Village primary school serves local and wider possible but Proposals enable a sense of place community, no community shops. Margaret unpredictable. and scale to be restored. Allow for Dane School at Hadham Hall a sense of quality to be restored through sensitive design. Characteristic features are enhanced through use of local materials. Moderate Beneficial

Cultural Little Hadham Local Common Common Where Hadham Hall Little Hadham The centre of Little Hadham and its Conservation individual Designations Proposals enable a sense of place

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

Features Description Scale it Rarity Importance Substitutability Changes in do Impact Additional Matters minimum Mitigation Area status includes many listed buildings and its properties are and listings and scale to be restored. Allow for historic brick making kilns. listed or within continue to a sense of quality to be restored conservation protect historic through sensitive design. Church End, Hadham Hall areas core and Characteristic features are enhanced Historic Hadham Hall and St Cecilia Church form substitutability associations through use of local materials. the principal cultural focus. will be limited. with wider Moderate beneficial cultural Residential properties features. Church End, Hadham Hall Historic buildings within the wider landscape that Proposals enable a sense of place formed the Hadham Hall estate, Hadham Park Church End, and scale to be restored. Allow for and Hadham Lodge form the principal cultural Hadham Hall a sense of quality to be restored focus. Listings protect through sensitive design. individual Characteristic features are enhanced buildings and through use of local materials. associations Moderate beneficial with wider cultural Residential properties features. The proposals are out of scale, visually intrusive and cannot be Residential fully mitigated for, will have an properties adverse impact on recognised With the quality and important characteristic Majority of elements. route in cutting Moderate adverse where it passes close to cultural assets alignment has

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

Features Description Scale it Rarity Importance Substitutability Changes in do Impact Additional Matters minimum Mitigation limited impact. Native hedgerow and occasional tree planting should ensure the setting is restored. Summary of Little Hadham Local Common Local/regional Settlement: Designations Little Hadham character Little Hadham is a historic village within the Where and listings Proposals enable a sense of place wider context of the Hadham Hall estate and its individual protect historic and scale to be restored. Allow for associated agricultural background. Development properties are core and a sense of quality to be restored is principally small in scale. The village of Little listed or within associations through sensitive design. Hadham has declined over the years with a conservation with wider Characteristic features are enhanced reduction in community resources. areas cultural through use of local materials. substitutability features. Moderate beneficial Church End, Hadham Hall will be limited. Hadham Hall remains active as a girl’s only Outside of these Church End, Hadham Hall school. designations Proposals enable a sense of place substitutability and scale to be retained. Residential properties may be possible Historic buildings within the wider landscape that Residential properties formed the Hadham Hall estate, Hadham Park The proposals are out of scale, and Hadham Lodge form the principal cultural visually intrusive and cannot be focus. fully mitigated for, will have an adverse impact on recognised quality and important characteristic elements.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

Features Description Scale it Rarity Importance Substitutability Changes in do Impact Additional Matters minimum Mitigation Moderate adverse

Reference Source(s): WebTag TAG Unit 3.3.8 the Townscape Sub-Objective, Department for Transport

Summary assessment score: Moderate adverse. Qualitative comments: There will be moderate beneficial impact on the settlement of Little Hadham and individual farmsteads and private houses adjacent to the route and limited indirect visual impact from existing housing along route. Church End/Hadham hall is positioned between the A120 and the new alignment. With the alignment being mainly in cutting the impact should be moderate beneficial as existing vehicular movements and associated noise will be reduced. At either eastern or western extents where the alignment meets the A120 there will be visual intrusion. Hadham Park, Hadham Lodge, Savernake and Plantings Cottages at the eastern end of the alignment will be mitigated with native tree and shrub planting this will only begin to have effect between 5-10yrs after planting. Generally any potential impact of the alignment has been reduced through careful positioning of both the vertical and horizontal road design which when coupled with the integrated landscape mitigation proposals contribute to filtering adverse visual impacts on the identified residential and commercial dwellings.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

4.6 Heritage of Historic Resources

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Feature Description Scale it matters Significance Rarity Impact

Form Nationally Important National National National Major adverse impact upon the form of buried A scheduled monument (a moated The heritage resource The moated mound is a The heritage resource is archaeological remains mound dating from the medieval contributes to policy at a Scheduled Monuments common within a national within the footprint of the period) is located approximately 80m national level (scheduled and therefore of context, alignment. However the to the south of the route. monuments) national importance. extent and importance of

these remains is not known at 21 Grade II Listed Buildings are present and therefore the present within 500m of the proposed overall effect of the alignment. Regional Listed Buildings are nationally important Regional alignment upon the remains Regionally important cannot be determined at this The heritage resource is time. Local Importance The heritage resource common within a regional contributes to policy at a Regional context. It A Romano British and Iron Age regional level (Areas of settlement site was investigated at Archaeological Buried archaeological Local Hadam school. Importance, individual remains have not been The heritage resource is sites) investigated, but are The existing A120 is located on the likely to be of regional common within a local alignment of Stane Street, a Roman or local importance context road. Local Local The heritage resource N/A contributes to policy at a local level (other sites noted on the HER).

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Feature Description Scale it matters Significance Rarity Impact Survival The scheduled monument is Preservation of the The survival of the The survival of elements of There will be a major adverse upstanding and the scheduled barrow heritage resource is a heritage resource is the heritage resource is not impact on the survival of is upstanding. material consideration in significant at a national, known at present. buried archaeological national policy. regional and local level. remains, if these are present Elsewhere, buried archaeological within the alignment. remains are believed to survive either However the importance of as buried archaeological remains or as these remains is not known at scatters of artefacts within the present and therefore the ploughsoil. However no overall effect of the alignment investigations have been undertaken upon the remains cannot be to investigate the presence of determined at this time. archaeological remains within the alignment.

Condition The condition of the heritage resource The condition of the The condition of the The condition of the The buried archaeological not known. heritage resource is a heritage resource is as heritage resource is remains have been subject to material consideration in expected for the current average. plough damage in the recent its management. land use. past, and therefore it is likely that the alignment would Complexity The archaeological and heritage The complexity of the The complexity of the The complexity of the There will be moderate resource originates from a number of heritage resource matters heritage resource is heritage resource is adverse effect on the dates, and is of a variety of types. at a national, local and nationally, regionally average in a local and complexity of the heritage Context The context (setting) of the heritage The context of the The context of the The context of the heritage There will be a slight adverse resource has been generally heritage resource matters heritage resource is resource within the effect on the context of the compromised, and little survives of at a national, regional and significant at a national, assessment area is similar heritage resource due to the upstanding remains. local level. regional and local level. to large areas of England. construction of the new road.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Feature Description Scale it matters Significance Rarity Impact Period The resources present represent The area represents The period of the The periods represented There will be a neutral effect evidence of occupation from a resources from a range of heritage resource is within the heritage on the period of the heritage number of periods. periods which are significant at a national, resource are considered to resource. nationally, locally and regional and local level. be average on a national, regionally important. regional and local context

Reference Source(s):English Heritage datasets for listed buildings and scheduled monuments; HER data,

Summary assessment score: Moderate adverse

Qualitative comments: This assessment is based upon desk-based information and professional judgement alone, and therefore the actual impacts and effects upon buried archaeological remains cannot be determined until the presence, condition and significance of the remains has been evaluated through field evaluation. No liaison has been undertaken to seek the views of statutory consultees.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

4.7 Biodiversity

Foxearth Wood Broad-leaved ancient Local A habitat of Ancient Medium Neutral Neutral Ancient Woodland semi-natural woodland. principal woodland sites Inventory Site importance that are declining in (AWIS), which is is listed on England. located Schedule 41 of approximately the Natural 300m south-west of Environment the alignment. and Resources (NERC) Act 2006. Albury End Wood Broad-leaved ancient Local A habitat of Ancient Medium Neutral Neutral AWIS, which is semi-natural woodland. principal woodland sites located importance that are declining in approximately is listed on England. 500m north-west of Schedule 41 of the alignment. NERC Act 2006. Bloodhounds Wood Broad-leaved ancient Local A habitat of Ancient Medium Neutral Neutral & High Wood semi-natural woodland. principal woodland sites AWIS, which is importance that are declining in located is listed on England. approximately Schedule 41 of 200m north-east of NERC Act

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

Area Description of Scale (at which Importance Trend (in Biodiversity and Magnitude Assessment feature / attribute attribute matters) (of attribute) relation to earth heritage of impact score target) value the alignment. 20064. Little Plantings Broad-leaved ancient Local A habitat of Ancient Medium Neutral Neutral Wood AWIS, which semi-natural woodland. principal woodland sites is located importance that are declining in approximately 50m is listed on England. south of the Schedule 41 of alignment. NERC Act 2006. Great Plantings Broad-leaved ancient Local A habitat of Ancient Medium Neutral Neutral Wood AWIS, which semi-natural woodland. principal woodland sites is located importance that are declining in approximately is listed on England. 100m south-east of Schedule 41 of the alignment. NERC Act 2006. East Wood AWIS, Broad-leaved ancient Local A habitat of Ancient Medium Neutral Neutral which is located semi-natural woodland. principal woodland sites approximately importance that are declining in 400m south of the is listed on England. alignment. Schedule 41 of NERC Act 2006. Little Hadham Unimproved calcareous Local Unimproved Unimproved Medium Neutral Neutral Chalk Pit Wildlife grassland, which calcareous calcareous

4 Natural Environment and Rural Communities Act 2006 (2006 CHAPTER 16). The Stationery Office Ltd, London.

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Site, which is supports two notable grassland is a grassland is located species: early spider habitat of declining in approximately orchid (Ophrys principal England. 300m south-east of sphegodes) and importance that the alignment. Chiltern gentian is listed on (Gentianella Schedule 41 of germanica). NERC Act 2006. Various hedgerows Hedgerow network. Local Hedgerows Hedgerows are Lower Intermediate Slight adverse along the alignment. that contain at declining in negative least 80% England. cover of native trees and shrubs are a habitat of principal importance that is listed on Schedule 41 of NERC Act 2006. The hedgerow network is of importance because it

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

facilitates species dispersal. Some hedgerows may be classified as 'Important' according to the 'Wildlife and Landscape' criteria described in The Hedgerows Regulations 19975. Two water-filled Watercourse Local Water-filled Many Lower Intermediate Slight adverse ditches (Feature 1), ditches are of watercourses negative which are located importance are subject to approximately because they pollution. Few 250m north-west of facilitate watercourses Little Hadham. species have good

5 The Hedgerow Regulations 1997 (1997 No. 1160). The Stationery Office Ltd, London.

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

dispersal. water quality and high species diversity in England. River Ash is a Watercourse Local Rivers are a Many Lower Intermediate Slight adverse Chalk River located habitat of watercourses negative approximately principal are subject to 750m north-west of importance that pollution. Few Little Hadham. is listed on watercourses Schedule 41 of have good NERC Act water quality 2006. and high species Rivers are also diversity in of importance England. because they facilitate species dispersal. A water-filled Watercourse Local Water-filled Many Lower Intermediate Slight adverse ditches (Feature 3), ditches are of watercourses negative which are located importance are subject to approximately because they pollution. Few 720m north-east of facilitate watercourses Hadham Hall. species have good

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

dispersal. water quality and high species diversity in England. Various ponds Ponds Local Ponds are a Many ponds are Lower Neutral Neutral within 500m of the habitat of subject to alignment including principal pollution. Few those at Hadham importance that ponds have Hall and north-east is listed on good water of Hadham Park Schedule 41 of quality and high NERC Act species 2006. diversity in England. Arable land along Arable land Local Arable land Arable land is a Negligible Intermediate Neutral the alignment. supports low common and negative species widespread diversity. habitat in England.

Reference Source(s): Hertfordshire Biological Records Centre

Summary assessment score: A slight adverse

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

Qualitative comments: The appraisal has identified that there is likely to be slight adverse effects to the hedgerow network and watercourses along the alignment. To further inform the assessment it will be necessary to undertake a Phase 1 Habitat Survey on land 500m either side of the alignment and a survey of affected hedgerows and watercourses. Depending on the findings of the Phase 1 Habitat Survey the following surveys may also need to be undertaken:  Plants (including invasive non-natives);  Great crested newt (Triturus cristatus);  Reptiles;  Breeding birds;  Bats;  Water vole (Arvicola amphibius);  Hazel dormouse (Muscardinus avellanarius); and,  Badger (Meles meles)

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Hertfordshire County Council A120 Little Hadham Environmental Appraisal

4.8 Water Environment

Description of study area / Feature Attributes / Quality Scale Rarity Substitutability Importance Magnitude Significance Summary of potential Services impacts Study Area: Little Hadham River Ash Conveyance Medium Local The The attributes Medium and of flows and quality importanc channels are replaceable Tributaries material. based on e and locally GQA floodplai River Conveyance grade of n of this channel and of flood the River river floodplain flows Ash system are Biodiversity relatively undevelo Aesthetics ped and so they are relatively common Groundwater Water High Regional The chalk low Very high – supply importanc principle e aquifer Chalk Biodiversity occupies principle an aquifer aquifer extensive Woolwich area and and Reading so its

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Description of study area / Feature Attributes / Quality Scale Rarity Substitutability Importance Magnitude Significance Summary of potential Services impacts Beds rarity is secondary A low aquifer Potential Impacts:

Increased flood risk due to Major Significant increased surface water discharges form the proposed road surface Reduction of flood storage Major Significant (flooplain associated with River Ash and its tributaries) Reduction in surface water Major Significant quality due to the presence of highway related pollutants Reduction in ground water Major Very quality due to the presence of significant highway related pollutants

Reference Source(s): EA website including indicative Flood Zoning, Groundwater, River Basin Plan mapping, and historic water quality. Summary assessment score: Unmitigated significant. Mitigated - insignificant Qualitative comments: The unmitigated scheme would have a significant impact on the surface and groundwater environment as surface water discharges would increase potentially increasing downstream flood risk, floodplain storage across the River Ash system and there would be a detrimental effect on water quality and groundwater

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quality. However by incorporating sustainable drainage and taking due regards of the underlying principle aquifer (limiting infiltration using liners) the impact of the receiving ground and surface waters can be strictly limited in such a way that the impact would be minor.

In addition there is a known flooding problem at Little Hadham. Proposals have been submitted to use the proposed embankment as a formal flood management structure. The watercourse crossings would be engineered to regulate flow of water downstream. Flood flows would be held back and stored behind the embankment and contained within an area designed to accommodate this excess water. The design of the crossing and the storage area would have to be undertaken to ensure there was no increase to developed areas upstream. The Environment Agency are supporters of using the proposed scheme to lessen flooding occurring at Little Hadham.

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4.9 Physical Fitness

Activity Duration per day Change in Number of People

Pedestrians Cyclists Less than 30 minutes n/a n/a Greater than 30 minutes n/a n/a

Reference Source(s): WebTag TAG Unit 3.3.12 The Physical Fitness Sub-Objective, Department of Transport, April 2009. http://www.dft.gov.uk/webtag/documents/worksheets.php

Summary assessment score: n/a

Qualitative comments: It is considered unlikely that the number and length of journeys, either within Little Hadham for cyclists and pedestrians or through Little Hadham for cyclists, will change significantly.

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4.10 Journey Ambience

Factor Sub-factor Better Neutral Worse

Traveller Care Cleanliness n/a n/a n/a Facilities n/a n/a n/a Information n/a n/a n/a Environment n/a n/a n/a Travellers’ Views n/a n/a n/a

Traveller Stress Frustration n/a n/a n/a Fear of potential n/a n/a n/a accidents Route uncertainty n/a n/a n/a

Reference Source(s): WebTag TAG Unit 3.3.13 The Journey Ambience Sub-Objective, Department of Transport, June 2003. http://www.dft.gov.uk/webtag/documents/worksheets.php

Summary assessment score: n/a

Qualitative comments: The bypass provides the opportunity to significantly increase the quality of traveller views and reduce driver stress.

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5 Appraisal of the A120 Little Hadham bypass preferred option

The following section identifies the potential impacts, both beneficial and adverse, that may be associated with the A120 Little Hadham bypass, based on the current design information available.

5.1 Noise

5.1.1 Introduction A plan level WebTAG noise assessment has been undertaken in accordance with the guidance of WebTAG unit 3.3.2 The Noise Sub-Objective. The noise assessment involves two steps. The first, based on the concept of noise annoyance, involves calculating the difference in the estimated population who would be annoyed by noise from alternative sources, comparing the do-minimum and do-something scenarios. The second is related to the effect of noise on amenity and property values and involves calculating the present value of households' willingness to pay to avoid transport related noise over the whole appraisal period for each scenario.

5.1.2 Methodology Acoustic modelling has been undertaken to calculate the difference in the estimated population who would be annoyed by noise from alternative sources. The Calculation of Road Traffic Noise (CRTN) model has been implemented within the SoundPLAN modelling software suite. The model takes into account distance, topography, speed, gradient and number of vehicles. Traffic data was provided by the Transport team and included 18 hour Annual Average Weekly Traffic (AAWT) flows with an associated % of heavy goods vehicles. This data has been provided below in Table 1 and input into existing road alignments within the model. Average 12 hour speed data was provided for the A120 road although no data was available for Albury Road to the north of the A120 junction and B1004 to the south of the A120 junction. In this instance the 30mph posted speed limit was used. The noise levels have been used to generate the noise contours (calculated at 1.5m above the ground) as shown in

Figure 1 to Figure 4. These have then been used to estimate population falling within 3dB noise bands. Acoustic screening from houses and structures has not been included in the model at this stage.

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Figure 1: Indicative noise map of 'do minimum 2019' scenario.

Figure 2: Indicative noise map of 'do minimum 2034' scenario.

Figure 3: Indicative noise map of 'do something 2019' scenario.

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Figure 4: Indicative noise map of 'do something 2034' scenario.

Table 2 Baseline traffic data Road Direction 18 hour AAWT 18 hour % HGV Average 12 hour 2019 AAWT 2034 speed (kph)

Do Minimum Albury Road North of NB 1018 1224 4.5% Not provided junction SB 1143 1373 3.8% Not provided A120 East of junction EB 8824 10603 7.5% 45 WB 8090 9721 7.7% 18 B1004 South of NB 1190 1430 7.1% Not provided junction SB 920 1105 8.1% Not provided A120 West of junction EB 7807 9381 8.1% 25 WB 7467 8973 8.1% 58 Do Something Proposed bypass EB 5803 6972 10.4% 83 WB 5389 6475 12.0% 84 A120 East of junction EB 3021 3630 2.0% 68 WB 2701 3245 1.0% 68 A120 West of junction EB 2004 2408 1.6% 69 WB 2078 2497 .04% 68

5.1.3 Baseline It has been assumed that the dominant source of noise within the assessment area to 600m of either side of the road is that of noise generated by road traffic on the existing roads.

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5.1.4 Assessment Road traffic noise levels were predicted for all potentially noise sensitive receptors, with and without the scheme, for the following scenarios;  Year of opening – 2019  15th year after opening – 2034 The results of this assessment are presented in the worksheet tables in Section 4.1.

5.1.5 Potential mitigation and conclusions Net difference in people annoyed in the longer term as a result of the scheme, compared to the Do-Minimum situation scenario in the 15th year = 3. Net present value of noise proposal (60 year period): -£266,499.00. Due to the nature of the bypass, substantial traffic flows still remain along the A120 and therefore noise exposure to dwellings along this route remains similar with and without the scheme. It is on this basis that a net gain has not been achieved in the ‘do something’ scenario. An increase in average traffic speeds along the A120 in the ‘do something’ scenario influences the noise exposure level attributing to the increase seen in the tables in Section 4.1. The assessed scheme did not contain any noise mitigation measures. The requirements for noise mitigation measure may be considered in later design stages.

5.2 Air Quality

5.2.1 Introduction This section presents the likely air quality impacts from the operation of the proposed scheme, focussing on emissions of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM10).

5.2.2 Air Quality Legislation European Air Quality Management In 1996 the European Commission published the Air Quality Framework Directive on ambient air quality assessment and management (96/62/EC)6. This Directive defined the policy framework for 12 air pollutants known to have harmful effects on human health and the environment. Limit values (pollutant concentrations not to be exceeded by a certain date) for each specified pollutant were set through a series of Daughter Directives, including Directive 1999/30/EC 7 (the 1st Daughter Directive) which sets limit values for sulphur dioxide (SO2),

6 Directive 96/62/EC of 27 September 1996 on ambient air quality assessment and management 7 Directive 1999/30/EC of 22 April 1999 relating to limit values for sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and oxides of nitrogen, particulate matter and lead in ambient air

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nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and oxides of nitrogen (NOX), particulate matter (PM10) and lead in ambient air. In May 2008 the Directive 2008/50/EC8 on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe came into force. This Directive consolidates the above (apart from the 4th Daughter Directive, which will be brought within the new Directive at a later date), provides a new regulatory framework for PM2.5 and makes provision for extended compliance deadlines for NO2 and PM10. The Directives were transposed into national legislation in England by the Air Quality Standards Regulations 20109. The Secretary of State for the Environment has the duty of ensuring the air quality limit values are complied with. Environment Act 1995 Part IV of the Environment Act 199510 places a duty on the Secretary of State for the Environment to develop, implement and maintain an Air Quality Strategy with the aim of reducing atmospheric emissions and improving air quality. The Air Quality Strategy11 for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland provides the framework for ensuring the air quality limit values are complied with based on a combination of international, national and local measures to reduce emissions and improve air quality. This includes the statutory duty, also under Part IV of the Environment Act 1995, for local authorities to undergo a process of local air quality management and declare Air Quality Management Areas (AQMA) where necessary. Air Quality Standards Air quality limit values and objectives are quality standards for clean air. Some pollutants have standards expressed as annual average concentrations due to the chronic way in which they affect health or the natural environment (i.e. effects occur after a prolonged period of exposure to elevated concentrations) and others have standards expressed as 24-hour, 1-hour or 15-minute average concentrations due to the acute way in which they affect health or the natural environment (i.e. after a relatively short period of exposure). Some pollutants have standards expressed in terms of both long-term and short-term concentrations. Table 3 sets out these EU air quality limit values and national air quality objectives for the pollutants relevant to this study (NO2 and PM10). In the majority of cases the air quality limit values and air quality objectives have the same pollutant concentration threshold and date for compliance. The key difference is that the Secretary of State for the Environment is required under European Law to ensure the air quality limit values are complied with, whereas local authorities are only obliged under national legislation to undertake best efforts to comply with the air quality objectives. To assist local authorities in demonstrating best efforts, the Environment Act 1995 requires that when carrying out their local air quality management functions, local authorities shall have regard to guidance issued by the Secretary of State.

8 Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008 on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe 9 The Air Quality Standards Regulations 2010, SI 2010/1001 10 Environment Act 1995, Chapter 25, Part IV Air Quality 11 The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, Volume 1, July 2007

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Table 3 Air quality standards Averaging Pollutant Limit value / Objective Date for compliance period UK(a) 11 June 2010 Annual mean 40μg/m3 (b) Nitrogen EU 01 Jan 2010 3 Dioxide (NO2) 200μg/m UK(a) 11 June 2010 1-hour mean not to be exceeded more than 18 times a (b) year (99.8th percentile) EU 01 Jan 2010 UK(a) 11 June 2010 Annual mean 40μg/m3 (b) Particulate EU 01 Jan 2005 3 Matter (PM10) 50μg/m UK(a) 11 June 2010 24-hour mean not to be exceeded more than 35 times a (b) year (90.4th percentile) EU 01 Jan 2005 3 (a) (b) Fine Particulate 25μg/m UK /EU 01 Jan 2015 Annual mean Matter (PM2.5) 20μg/m3 EU* 01 Jan 2020 (a) The Air Quality Standards Regulations 2010, SI2010/1001 (b) Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008 on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe * Indicative until the 2013 review of air policies by the European Commission (currently under way)

5.2.3 Methodology The overall approach to the air quality assessment comprises:  A review of the existing air quality conditions in the study area;  An assessment of the potential changes in air quality arising from the operation of the proposed development; and,  Formulation of mitigation measures, where appropriate, to ensure any adverse effects on air quality are minimised. Method of baseline assessment Existing or baseline ambient air quality refers to the concentration of relevant substances that are already present in the environment – these are present from various sources, such as industrial processes, commercial and domestic activities, traffic and natural sources. A desk-based review of the following data sources has been undertaken to determine baseline conditions of air quality in this assessment:  East Hertfordshire District Council (EHDC) and Uttlesford District Council (UDC) review and assessment reports and local air quality monitoring data;  The UK Air Information Resource website12; and,  The Environmental Agency (EA) website13. Method of operational assessment Air quality impacts from the operation of the proposed scheme arise principally as a result of traffic changes along the local road network. Effects of traffic generated by the scheme have been assessed using the WebTAG methodology14:

12 http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk 13 http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk

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1. Identify the affected road network; 2. Quantify the number of properties in four bands (0-50m, 50-100m, 100- 150m and 150-200m);

3. Calculate NO2 and PM10 concentrations;

4. Calculate property-weighted NO2 and PM10 concentrations; 5. Calculate the number of properties that improve, worsen or stay the same. Due to the size of the proposed scheme and the rural nature of the surrounding area, all main roads have been included in the assessment. Sensitive receptors (residential, schools, hospitals, care homes) have been identified within 200m from these roads and pollutant concentrations predicted using the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB) screening methodology spreadsheet 15 . The WebTAG spreadsheets16,17 were then used to calculate the property weighted concentrations and the number of properties with improvements/worsenings in order to assign a final score to the proposed scheme. Assessment scenarios The following scenarios have been used in the assessment:  2013 baseline scenario;  2019 Do-Minimum (DM) scenario: the traffic scenario at the year of opening without the proposed scheme;  2019 Do-Something (DS) scenario; the traffic scenario at the year of opening with the proposed scheme;  2024 Do-Minimum scenario: the traffic scenario at a forecast of 5 years after opening without the proposed scheme;  2024 Do-Something scenario: the traffic scenario at a forecast of 5 years after opening with the proposed scheme;  2034 Do-Minimum scenario: the traffic scenario at a forecast of 15 years after opening without the proposed scheme;  2034 Do-Something scenario: the traffic scenario at a forecast of 15 years after opening with the proposed scheme. Traffic data Traffic data was provided for the above scenarios by the Arup transport consultants. The data consisted of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) flows, Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) flows and average speeds for the local road network and the proposed scheme. Traffic flows for the assessed network are given in Table 4.

14 Department for Transport (2012) Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG): The Air Quality Sub- objective (TAG Unit 3.3.3) 15 Highways Agency (2007) Design Manual for Roads and Bridges, Volume 11 Section 3 Part 1 Air Quality HA207/07 16 Department for Transport (2012) Unit 3.3.3 Pollution Concentration Entry, Available from http://www.dft.gov.uk/webtag/documents/expert/unit3.3.3.php [Accessed August 2013] 17 Department for Transport (2012) Unit 3.3.3 Air Quality Worksheet, Available from http://www.dft.gov.uk/webtag/documents/expert/unit3.3.3.php [Accessed August 2013]

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Receptors Pollutant concentrations have been forecast at a total number of 153 receptors in the study area. These are mainly residential dwellings and a school, which are located within 200m of the existing local road network and the proposed bypass. A breakdown of all properties within specified distance bands from the road network are given on Table 5. Assessment of significance Once the concentrations have been derived for both the Do-Minimum and Do- Something scenarios, an assessment of significance has been carried out using the Environmental Protection UK (EPUK) guidance18. The absolute change in annual 3 mean NO2 and PM10 concentrations (in μg/m ) has been used to determine the magnitude of change using the criteria set out in Table 6. The magnitude was then used to determine the impact descriptor, also taking into account the concentrations in relation to the air quality standards, using the criteria set out in Table 7. The impact descriptor is then used in the assessment of significance. The guidance provides a set of factors that determine the significance of a proposal in terms of air quality (Table 8).

18 Environmental Protection UK (2010) Development Control: Planning for Air Quality

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Table 4 Traffic data used in the air quality assessment Baseline 2013 Do-Minimum 2019 Do-Something 2019 ID Road AADT HDVs Speed (kph) AADT HDVs Speed (kph) AADT HDVs Speed (kph) 1 Albury Road 1,926 80 48 2,078 86 48 2,078 86 48 2 Minor road 1,881 142 48 2,029 153 48 2,029 153 48 3 A120 (east) 15,078 1,148 32 16,266 3,904 32 5,503 83 68 4 A120 (west) 13,616 1,102 41 14,689 3,525 41 3,926 39 69 5 Proposed scheme – – – – – – 10,763 1,205 84

Do-Minimum 2024 Do-Something 2024 Do-Minimum 2034 Do-Something 2034 ID Road Speed Speed Speed AADT HDVs AADT HDVs Speed (kph) AADT HDVs AADT HDVs (kph) (kph) (kph) 1 Albury Road 2,239 93 48 2,239 93 48 2,497 104 48 2,497 104 48 2 Minor road 2,186 165 48 2,186 165 48 2,438 184 48 2,438 184 48 3 A120 (east) 17,529 1,335 32 5,930 89 68 19,546 1,488 32 6,613 99 67 4 A120 (west) 15,829 1,281 41 4,231 42 69 17,651 1,428 41 4,718 47 68 5 Proposed scheme – – – 11,598 1,299 83 – – – 12,933 1,449 82

Table 5 Receptors within distance bands from road network Existing road network Proposed A120 Bypass Receptor 0 – 50m 50 – 100m 100 – 150m 150 – 200m Total 0 – 50m 50 – 100m 100 – 150m 150 – 200m Total Residential 89 29 25 9 152 89 29 25 9 152 School 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 Total 90 29 25 9 153 90 29 25 9 153

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Table 6 EPUK classification of magnitude of change 3 Magnitude of Change Change in NO2 and PM10 Annual Mean Concentrations (µg/m ) Large > 4.0 Medium 2.0 – 4.0 Small 0.4 – 2.0 Imperceptible < 0.4

Table 7 EPUK impact descriptors for NO2 and PM10 annual mean concentrations Absolute concentration in relation to Change in concentration air quality standard Small Medium Large Increase with Scheme above air quality standard with scheme Slight Adverse Moderate Adverse Substantial Adverse (> 40 µg/m3) just below air quality standard with Slight Adverse Moderate Adverse Moderate Adverse scheme (36 - 40 µg/m3) below air quality standard with scheme Negligible Slight Adverse Slight Adverse (30 - 36 µg/m3) well below air quality standard with Negligible Negligible Slight Adverse scheme (< 30 µg/m3) Decrease with Scheme above air quality standard with scheme Slight Beneficial Moderate Beneficial Substantial Beneficial (> 40 µg/m3) just below air quality standard with Slight Beneficial Moderate Beneficial Moderate Beneficial scheme (36 - 40 µg/m3) below air quality standard with scheme Negligible Slight Beneficial Slight Beneficial (30 - 36 µg/m3) well below air quality standard with Negligible Negligible Slight Beneficial scheme (< 30 µg/m3)

Table 8 EPUK factors to judge significance

 Number of people affected by slight, moderate or major air quality impacts and a judgment on the overall balance.  Where new exposure is being introduced into an existing area of poor air quality, then the number of people exposed to levels above the objective or limit value will be relevant.  The magnitudes of the changes and the descriptions of the impacts at the receptors.  Whether or not an exceedance of an objective or limit value is predicted to arise in the study area, where none existed before, or an exceedance area is substantially increased.  Whether or not the study area exceeds an objective or limit value and this exceedance is removed, or the exceedance area is reduced.  Uncertainty, including the extent to which worst case assumptions have been made.

3  The extent to which an objective or limit value is exceeded; eg. an annual mean NO2 of 41μg/m should attract less significance than an annual mean of 51μg/m3.

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5.2.4 Baseline Air Pollution Sources Industrial Processes Industrial air pollution sources are regulated through a system of operating permits, implementing emission limits to be met and ensuring that any releases to the environment are minimised and controlled. Regulated processes are classified as Part A or Part B processes, regulated through the Environmental Permitting Regulations (as Amended)19,20. The more complex processes are regulated by the Environment Agency (EA) and the potentially less polluting processes by local authorities. Local authorities regulate for emissions to air only whereas the EA regulates emissions to air, water and land. There are no permitted processes within 2km of the study area. Road Traffic In recent decades, transport atmospheric emissions, on a national basis, have grown to match or exceed other sources in respect of many pollutants, particularly in urban areas. Vehicle emissions are likely to be the dominant source of air pollutants in the study area and as a result of the proposed scheme. The main pollutants associated with road traffic and considered in this assessment are:

 Nitrogen dioxide (NO2); and,  Fine particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5). The A120 Stortford Road/Standon Road passes through the village of Little Hadham. There is one main junction, where the A120 crosses Albury Road. Traffic data for this junction was provided by the transport consultants using automatic traffic counts collected in 2013. The west branch of the A120 (Stortford Road) has AADT flows of 13,616. Albury Road at the north of the junction has an AADT of 1,926 and the minor road at the south of the junction has 1,881. The east brach of the A120 (Standon Road) has an AADT of 15,078. Local Authority Review and Assessment The Environment Act 1995 requires local authorities to review and assess air quality with respect to the objectives for seven pollutants specified in the National Air Quality Strategy. Local authorities are required to carry out an Updating and Screening Assessment (USA) of their area every three years. If the USA identifies potential hotspot areas likely to exceed air quality objectives, then a Detailed Assessment of those areas is required. Where objectives are not predicted to be met, local authorities must declare the area as an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) and produce an Air Quality Action Plan (AQAP) with measures to improve air quality.

Currently, EHDC has declared two AQMAs for NO2 concentrations, but these are located more than 2km away from the study area and therefore do not result in a constraint for this scheme. EHDC and UDC also carry out automatic and passive monitoring of pollutants in various locations within their boroughs, however no sites are within 2km of the study area.

19 Directive 2010/75/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 24 November 2010 on industrial emissions (integrated pollution prevention and control) 20 The Environmental Permitting (England and Wales) Regulations 2010, SI 2010/675

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Background Pollutant Concentrations DEFRA has produced estimated background air pollution data for each 1x1km OS grid square for each local authority area21. Background maps are available for 2010 and projected through to 2030. Average background pollutant concentrations in the study area are presented in Table 9 for the baseline and future assessment years. It can be observed that concentrations are well below the respective air quality standards for all pollutants. Table 9 Background pollutant concentrations (μg/m3) Pollutant 2013 2019 2024 2034 NOx 15.9 12.0 10.4 10.0

NO2 10.8 8.3 7.3 7.1

PM10 16.7 15.9 15.5 15.4

PM2.5 10.4 9.8 9.4 9.3

5.2.5 Assessment As mentioned above, air quality impacts from the operation of the proposed scheme have been assessed for a baseline scenario, a future opening year and two future scenarios 5 and 15 years from opening (2024 and 2034). Due to the nature of the surrounding area and the extent of the existing local network, all roads in the area where included in the assessment. Sensitive receptors were also identified within four bands of these roads (0-50m, 50-100m, 100-150m and 150-200m). A total of 153 receptors were included in the assessment (152 residential properties and 1 school). Pollutant concentrations have been modelled for all these receptors in the study area, taking into account road traffic emissions, distance to the road and background concentrations. The range of pollutant concentrations and average in the study area for all assessment years are shown in Table 10. It can be observed that forecast pollutant concentrations are well below the air quality standards for all assessment years both with and without the proposed scheme. There is also a decrease in concentrations with the proposed scheme, which is expected due to the traffic being shifted from the local road network to the proposed bypass, which is located further away from the receptors. Table 10 Modelled pollutant concentrations 3 3 NO2 (μg/m ) PM10 (μg/m ) Assessment year Range Average Range Average 2013 baseline 10.2 – 28.3 14.0 16.0 – 19.9 17.0 2019 Do-Minimum 7.9 – 23.7 11.1 15.2 – 18.8 16.2 2019 Do-Something 7.9 – 14.4 9.3 15.2 – 16.6 15.8 2024 Do-Minimum 7.0 – 22.6 10.0 14.8 – 18.4 15.8 2024 Do-Something 7.0 – 13.5 8.2 14.8 – 16.2 15.4 2034 Do-Minimum 6.8 – 22.8 9.8 14.7 – 18.5 15.7 2034 Do-Something 6.8 – 13.8 8.1 14.7 – 16.3 15.4

The change in modelled concentrations has also been calculated for the future assessment years to determine the impact of the proposed scheme to local air quality. As a worst case, the maximum and minimum changes in pollutant

21 http://laqm.defra.gov.uk/review-and-assessment/tools/background-maps.html

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concentrations have been used in the assessment of significance as shown in Table 11. It can be observed that NO2 concentrations are expected to have, at worst, small increases at the junction where the proposed bypass meets the A120 west of Little Hadham and large decreases at the rest of the study area. PM10 concentrations are expected to have no change or medium decreases across the study area. Overall, the proposed scheme is expected to be slight beneficial for NO2 concentrations across most of the study area and negligible for PM10 concentrations. Table 11 Changes in pollutant concentrations and assessment of significance NO concentrations PM concentrations Assessment 2 10 year Change Magnitude Impact Change Magnitude Impact (μg/m3) of change descriptor (μg/m3) of change descriptor Opening year 2019 Maximum 0.0 No change Negligible 0.0 No change Negligible Large Medium Minimum -11.5 Slight beneficial -2.4 Negligible decrease decrease Future assessment year 2024 Maximum +0.2 Imperceptible Negligible 0.0 No change Negligible Large Medium Minimum -11.3 Slight beneficial -2.3 Negligible decrease decrease Future assessment year 2034 Small Maximum +0.5 Negligible 0.0 No change Negligible increase Large Medium Minimum -11.4 Slight beneficial -2.4 Negligible decrease decrease Population-weighted concentrations have also been calculated for each band distance. The results are presented in section 4.2. It can be observed that the scores for both NO2 and PM10 are negative for all assessment years, thus the proposed scheme is assessed to be beneficial for local air quality.

5.2.6 Potential mitigation and conclusions Given that only negligible or slight beneficial impacts on local air quality have been predicted from the operation of the proposed scheme, no air quality specific mitigation measures are proposed.

5.3 Greenhouse Gases

5.3.1 Introduction This section presents the likely greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts from the operation of the proposed scheme, focussing on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

5.3.2 Methodology GHG impacts from the operation of the proposed scheme arise principally as a result of traffic changes along the local road network. Effects of traffic generated 22 by the scheme have been assessed using the WebTAG methodology : CO2

22 Department for Transport (2012) Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG): The Greenhouse Gases Sub-objective (TAG Unit 3.3.5)

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emissions for all roads in the study area were calculated using Defra’s Emissions Factor Toolkit v5.2c (January 2013) and an economic analysis of these emissions was undertaken using the WebTAG Greenhouse Gases Spreadsheet (February 2013)23. The following scenarios have been used in the assessment:  2019 Do-Minimum (DM) scenario: the traffic scenario at the year of opening without the proposed scheme;  2019 Do-Something (DS) scenario; the traffic scenario at the year of opening with the proposed scheme;  2034 Do-Minimum scenario: the traffic scenario at a forecast of 15 years after opening without the proposed scheme;  2034 Do-Something scenario: the traffic scenario at a forecast of 15 years after opening with the proposed scheme. Traffic data was provided for the above scenarios by the Arup transport consultants. The data consisted of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) flows, Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) flows and average speeds for the local road network and the proposed scheme. Traffic flows for the assessed network are given in Table 4 (Section 5.2 Air Quality). th Annual CO2 emission rates were calculated for the opening year 2019 and the 15 year after operation (i.e. 2034), taking into account the length (in km) of each road. The total annual emissions were assumed to have linear growth between the years. As such, a growth step was calculated between 2019 and 2034 for the Do- Minimum and the Do-Something scenarios. This was then applied to consecutive years from 2019 in order to calculate annual CO2 emissions (in tonnes/year) for a total of 60 years. The emissions were then used in an economic assessment using WebTAG Greenhouses Gases Spreadsheet, which includes 2010 based annual carbon prices (£/tCO2) until 2100.

5.3.3 Assessment

The calculated annual CO2 emissions for the above scenarios (with and without the proposed scheme) are presented in Table 12. The total CO2 emissions in the study area for these scenarios are presented in Table 13, along with the growth step used to calculate annual emissions for 60 years after 2019. It can be observed that total CO2 emissions are expected to decrease with the operation of the proposed scheme. When assigning monetary values to these emissions, using the WebTAG Greenhouse Gases Spreadsheet, it was found that the net present value of CO2 emissions for the proposed scheme over a 60 year period is positive at approximately £3 million. The full results are presented in Section 4.3.

23 Department for Transport (2013) Unit 3.3.5 Greenhouse Gases Spreadsheet, Available from http://www.dft.gov.uk/webtag/documents/expert/unit3.3.5.php [Accessed October 2013]

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Table 12 Annual CO2 emissions for all roads 2019 2034 ID Road CO2 emissions (tonnes/year) CO2 emissions (tonnes/year) Do-Minimum Do-Something Do-Minimum Do-Something 1 Albury Road 150 150 171 171 2 Minor road 58 58 67 67 3 A120 (east) 3,900 849 4,528 962 4 A120 (west) 1,026 192 1,192 217 5 Proposed scheme – 3,095 – 3,588

Table 13 Total CO2 emissions in the study area and annual growth step

CO2 emissions (tonnes/year) Year Do-Minimum Do-Something 2019 5,134 4,344 2034 5,959 5,006 Growth step (per year) 55 44

5.3.4 Potential mitigation and conclusions No mitigation measures are proposed in relation to the greenhouse gases assessment.

5.4 Landscape

5.4.1 Introduction This section presents the likely impacts of the scheme focussing on the impacts the proposed alignment may have on both the landscape and character areas of the study area.

5.4.2 Methodology The methodology for appraising impact that plans will have on landscape follow a four stage general approach to appraising ‘environmental capital’ as set out in the WebTag TAG Unit 3.3.7 the Landscape Sub-Objective, Department for Transport. Applied to landscape, the approach is:  Describe sequentially the characteristic the characteristic features of the countryside;  To appraise environmental capital – using a set of indicators, done by assessing:  importance of characteristic features;  who they are important to, and why;  their relationships in overall landscape patterns.

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 To describe how proposals impact on the landscape features, including effects on distinctive quality and substantial local diversity; and,  To produce an overall assessment score on a seven point scale. For this assessment the alignment has been split into four distinct areas that ensure the assessment is focused and direct. These areas are;  A120 Standon Road to Albury End  Albury End to Albury Road  Hadham Hall to Hadham Park and farm access  Hadham Park and Church End Farm access to junction with A120 A walk over study was undertaken, and Landscape Character Assessments completed by EHDC reviewed, to establish existing conditions. This provided a local level character understanding of the area which enabled a full appreciation of the nature of landscape and character where the alignment crosses the countryside.

5.4.3 Baseline The following descriptions detail the baseline conditions which the alignment passes through taking in both local and national landscape designations A120 Standon Road to Albury End The landscape is characterised by strongly undulating river valley slopes with a flat valley floor. Steeper, undulating slopes define the valley sides, some of which are densely vegetated others wide and open. Arable fields are irregular in shape but generally medium/large in scale and bounded with managed hedgerows; there is little pasture. The current A120 Standon Road and Albury End Road within Little Hadham are the primary vehicular routes with continuous vehicular movements. A public right of way off Albury End Road passes a disused pit and kiln that formed part of the brick making industry in Little Hadham. The right of way splits and crosses the proposed alignment in an area that forms part of ‘GBC2 - Rural area beyond green belt’. Generally the location is tranquil with the exception of audible noise from airplane traffic using Stansted airport 10 kms to the east. Albury End to Albury Road Forming part of the ‘Upper Ash Valley’ local character area the landscape is characterised by a more open yet less defined watercourse with scattered woodland blocks on upper edges of valley slopes. Field patterns within the valley are typically small /medium in scale with some areas of larger field amalgamation within the vicinity of the alignment which are bounded with managed hedgerows. The area is relatively inaccessible except for farm machinery and bridleway access. The alignment crosses arable fields presenting a largely rural tranquil environment with the exception of audible noise from airplane traffic using Stansted airport 10 km to the east.

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Hadham Hall to the east of Little Hadham formed the centre of a 14th century estate that included 980 acres of farmland, St Cecilia Church, Hadham Park and Hadham Lodge. Between these are Church Farm and extensive farm buildings and barns.

Hadham Hall to Hadham Park and farm access Forming part of the ‘Hadham Plateau’ local character area the landscape is characterised by its generally flat appearance punctuated with very gentle undulations and similarly gentle slopes towards the River Ash valley floor. Pattern is distinguished by large, agglomerated, arable geometric fields interspersed with occasional woodland blocks. Relatively inaccessible except for farm machinery the alignment crosses arable fields, which is a semi tranquil setting with the exception of audible noise from airplane traffic using Stansted airport 10 km to the east. Between Hadham Hall and Hadham Park a series of fields retain original size and scale. The landscape is characterised by wider open undulating slopes which are an intensively farmed arable landscape of fields, irregular in shape but generally medium/large in scale, bounded with managed hedgerows. Hadham Park and Church End Farm access to junction with A120 Forming part of the ‘Hadham Plateau’ local character area the landscape is characterised by its general flat appearance with very gentle undulations and falls towards the River Ash valley floor. The landscape is typified by large, geometric fields defined by managed hedgerow boundaries that are interspersed with occasional woodland blocks. Residential properties Hadham Park, Hadham Lodge, Savernake and Plantings Cottages would have formed part of the wider estate are accessible from the old Hadham Road. Mature trees and woodland blocks along with orientation of property provide a semi tranquil setting with the elevated A120 present in the background. A low droning noise from airplanes circling to land at Stansted airport to the east can still be heard. The landscape is characterised by wider open undulating slopes which are an intensively farmed arable landscape of fields, irregular in shape but generally medium/large in scale, bounded with well managed hedgerows. Woodland is generally scarce however; Bloodhounds’ Wood and High Wood are prominent elements.

5.4.4 Assessment A120 Standon Road to Albury End With the introduction of a three exit roundabout at approx. 100mAOD on the A120 Standon Road a two lane highway passes over the open countryside gently falling to approx. 80mAOD at Albury Road. The alignment design has avoided nationally recognised or locally protected landscapes. The alignment results in the loss and severance of open, arable fields

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and field boundaries of mature native hedgerows with hedgerow trees. Loss will be experienced at a local level. Wide open agricultural fields with mature trees and hedgerows alongside natural looking blocks of woodland are all visual elements within the landscape that support the concept of tranquillity. The presence of low flying aircraft taking off and landing at Stansted along with HV power cables, roads, scattered houses and further development visually detract the tranquillity of the setting. However, although birdsong can be heard along with wildlife, natural sounds and at times no discernible noise according to direction, noise from low flying aircraft, vehicular noise from the A120 and farming machinery impact on the levels of tranquillity. Therefore, the balance in this location leans more towards a less tranquil environment. Careful positioning of the alignment has minimised the loss of the existing local field pattern, this, coupled with replacement tree and hedgerow planting to the top of cutting and embankments, will reflect existing field pattern boundaries. The scheme alignment is predominantly in cutting so there is little opportunity to avoid severance of field pattern. However, the existing landform has good capacity to accommodate the proposed alignment. Although not wholly intrusive, the proposals impact on views into and across the landscape. There will be conflict with local authority policy and this cannot be completely mitigated because of the nature of the proposal itself. Impact - Slight adverse

Albury End to Albury Road The scheme alignment continues across the landscape primarily in cutting rising from approx. 80mAOD to100mAOD, remaining in cutting north of Hadham Hall and Mill Mound. The alignment does not impact any nationally recognised or locally protected landscape areas. However, it will result in the loss of open arable fields and the loss of field boundaries of mature native hedgerows and trees. The loss of these elements will impact at local level. Wide open agricultural fields with mature trees and hedgerows alongside natural looking blocks of woodland are all visual elements within the landscape that add to the sense of tranquillity. However, the presence of low flying aircraft taking off and landing at Stansted along with HV power cables, roads, scattered houses and further development visually reduce the tranquillity of the setting. Although birdsong can be heard along with wildlife, natural sounds and at times no discernible noise according to direction, noise from low flying aircraft, vehicular noise from the A120 and farming machinery impact on the levels of tranquillity. Therefore the balance in this location leans more towards a less tranquil environment. Although not wholly intrusive the proposals impact on views into and across the landscape. There will be conflict with local authority policy that cannot be completely mitigated because the nature of the proposal itself or the character of landscape through which it passes.

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Impact - Slight adverse Hadham Hall to Hadham Park and farm access The alignment continues in cutting to ch. 2550.000 then continues primarily at grade to ch.3100.000 at approx. 100mAOD. Existing mature hedges and trees defining field boundaries ensure the alignment will be screened and its impact reduced. The alignment does not impact any nationally recognised or locally protected landscapes. However, it will result in the loss and severance of open, arable fields and field boundaries of mature native hedgerows and hedgerow trees. The loss of these elements will be experienced at a local level. Wide, open agricultural fields with mature trees and hedgerows alongside natural looking blocks of woodland are all visual elements within the landscape that add to the sense of tranquillity. However, the presence of low flying aircraft taking off and landing at Stansted along with HV power cables, roads, scattered houses and further development visually reduce the tranquillity of the setting. However, birdsong can be heard along with wildlife, natural sounds and at times no discernible noise according to direction, noise from low flying aircraft, vehicular noise from the A120 and farming machinery impact on the levels of tranquillity. Therefore, the balance in this location leans more towards a less tranquil environment. Although not overly intrusive, proposals will impact on certain views into and across the area. There will be conflict with local authority policy that cannot be completely mitigated because of the nature of the proposal itself. The impact of the alignment cannot be completely mitigated because of the nature of the proposal itself or the character of the landscape through which it passes. Impact - Slight adverse Hadham Park and Church End Farm access to junction with A120 From ch. 3100.000 the alignment severs arable fields largely at grade and 100mAOD. The alignment passes between Hadham Park and Hadham Lodge, two large residential properties that sit within the Green Belt, resulting in impact on this designation. The alignment meets the A120 at a final three exit roundabout adjacent to Plantings cottages. Wide open agricultural fields with mature trees and hedgerows alongside natural looking blocks of woodland are all visual elements within the landscape that add to the sense of tranquillity. However, the presence of low flying aircraft taking off and landing at Stansted along with HV power cables, roads, scattered houses and further development visually detract from the tranquillity of the setting. Although birdsong can be heard along with wildlife, natural sounds and at times no discernible noise according to direction, noise from low flying aircraft, vehicular noise from the A120 and farming machinery impact on the levels of tranquillity. Therefore, the balance in this location leans more towards a less tranquil environment. Although not wholly intrusive the proposals impact on views into and across the landscape. There will be further conflict with local authority policy that cannot be

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completely mitigated because of the nature of the proposal itself or the character of the landscape through which it passes. Where the alignment re-joins the A120 Stortford Road it passes through green belt that is important at both regional and national level. In turn the proposals affect an area of recognised landscape quality and conflict with local policies for protecting the local character of the area. Impact - Large adverse

5.4.5 Potential mitigation and conclusions It is expected that a design will include appropriate mitigation measures as part of its design to achieve best fit within the landscape. Where practicable, any potential impact of the alignment has been reduced through careful positioning of both vertical and horizontal road design which, when coupled with an integrated landscape mitigation proposals that can be developed during later design stages, contribute to reducing adverse visual impacts on the affected residential and commercial dwellings. In addition, low impact directional lighting at the roundabout with reduced height columns where possible could be considered.

5.5 Townscape

5.5.1 Introduction This section presents the likely impacts of the scheme focussing on the impacts the proposed alignment may have on the townscapes within the study area.

5.5.2 Methodology The methodology for appraising impact of plans on townscape uses the following four stage approach as set out in the WebTag TAG Unit 3.3.8 the Townscape Sub- Objective, Department for Transport:  Describe sequentially the characteristic features of the townscape;  Appraise environmental capital – using a set of indicators and assessing:  importance of characteristic features;  who they are important to and why;  their relationships in overall landscape patterns.  Describe how proposals impact on the landscape features, including effects on distinctive quality and substantial local diversity; and,  Produce an overall assessment score on a seven point scale. The assessment has considered the alignment as a whole but divided the scheme into the following key areas for clarity;

 Little Hadham –the principle townscape in the study area;  Church End, Hadham Hall- these locations are made up of culturally sensitive locations;

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 Residential properties - that include Hadham Park and Hadham Lodge along with Savernake and Plantings cottages.

5.5.3 Baseline The following descriptions detail the baseline conditions that the proposed scheme may impact: Little Hadham Little Hadham is the main settlement and is divided by the east/west A120 Standon Road/Stortford Road and the Albury Road to the north and south. The River Ash passes through Little Hadham from north to south. The main village consists of dwellings constructed between 1500-1726 which are either Listed or form part of the wider Conservation Area. Little Hadham consists of mainly two storey residential dwellings which are clustered around the historic central crossroads expanding to the north along Albury Road and south adjacent to the River Ash. Beyond the Conservation Area the dwellings appear to be more modern however to the south along Albury Road there are homes from different periods which become increasingly more modern including 20c towards the edge of settlement. The setting of the village is small in scale within Little Hadham moving into a wider agriculture environment with individual dwellings. There are no community shops in Little Hadham but the village primary school serves local and wider communities. Church End, Hadham Hall Church End is away from Little Hadham to the east and up the hill towards Bishops Stortford, it is a small group of buildings that are made up of St Cecilia Church, the rectory and Church End Farm. Hadham Hall further to the east formed the centre of a 14th century estate that included 980 acres of farmland, the Church, Hadham Park and Hadham Lodge. Hadham Hall is now the Margaret Dane School. Residential properties At the eastern end of the alignment there is Hadham Park and Hadham Lodge along with Savernake and Plantings cottages that would have formed part of the wider estate dwellings. Hadham Park faces towards the current A120 whereas Hadham Lodge is orientated away and screened from the A120.

5.5.4 Assessment Little Hadham The proposed alignment will remove current high levels of traffic away from the heart of Little Hadham. Designations have protected the historic core of the village and ensured development within Little Hadham has been controlled. With the removal of traffic the proposals present the opportunity to enhance the existing townscape restoring a sense of place, scale and quality. Impact - Moderate beneficial

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Church End, Hadham Hall The proposed alignment passes Church End and Hadham Hall to the north and remains in cutting as it passes. The proposals do not fit the layout, mix, scale, appearance, human interaction and cultural aspects of the setting. However, proposals will enable a sense of place and scale to be restored through well designed mitigation measures, maintaining existing character in an area which is not a designated townscape. Designations have protected individual buildings and associations with wider cultural features at Church end and Hadham hall and this should remain the case. Where further development may occur it would be necessary to develop a clear understanding of Church End and Hadham Hall and surrounding areas to accommodate development. Impact - Slight adverse Residential properties At the eastern end of the alignment there is Hadham Park and Hadham Lodge along with Savernake and Plantings cottages that would have formed part of the wider estate dwellings. Hadham Park faces towards the current A120 whereas Hadham Lodge is orientated away and screened from the A120. The alignment is likely to impact on the visual amenity of these residential dwellings. The alignment between Hadham Park and Hadham Lodge is in cutting and the roundabout joining the A120 will be screened with bunding and native tree and shrub planting to reduce visual impact. Although with the majority of route is in cutting where it passes close to cultural assets, the scheme will have a moderate impact. The proposals are at odds with the layout, mix, scale, appearance, human interaction and cultural aspects of the properties and will adversely impact on the location. Native hedgerow and occasional tree planting should ensure the setting is restored over time. Impact - Moderate adverse

5.5.5 Potential mitigation and conclusions There will be moderate beneficial impact on the settlement of Little Hadham and individual farmsteads and private houses adjacent to the route, and limited indirect visual impact from existing housing along route. Church End/Hadham Hall is positioned between the A120 and the new alignment. With the alignment being mainly in cutting the impact should be moderate beneficial as existing vehicular movements and associated noise will be reduced. At eastern and western extents where the alignment meets the A120 there will be visual intrusion. Impact on Hadham Park, Hadham Lodge, Savernake and Plantings Cottages at the eastern end of the alignment will be mitigated with native tree and shrub planting; this will only begin to take effect between 5-10yrs after planting.

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Where practicable, potential impact of the alignment has been reduced through careful positioning of both the vertical and horizontal alignment which, when coupled with integrated landscape mitigation proposals to be developed, contribute to reducing adverse visual impacts on the identified residential and commercial dwellings.

5.6 Heritage and Historic Resources

5.6.1 Introduction This section provides an overview of the known heritage assets that may be affected by the proposed alignment, assesses the likely impacts and suggests mitigation.

5.6.2 Methodology The assessment has been undertaken using desk-based resources, comprising:  English Heritage GIS datasets for nationally designated heritage assets;  Historic Environment Record (HER) Data provided within the data room for previous studies undertaken in connection with the scheme, assumed to be dated 2007. Heritage assets have been identified within 500m of the centreline of the proposed alignment. The assessment has been undertaken using professional judgement, and has also been entered into Plan level WebTAG assessment worksheets. As a function of the design stage of the proposed scheme, the assessment has been undertaken at a high level; when a final design has been agreed it is recommended that a full Desk Based Assessment is undertaken to the standards and guidance of the Institute for Archaeologists.

5.6.3 Baseline The assessment of available datasets has identified 22 nationally designated heritage assets, which comprise:  1 Scheduled Monument, a Medieval moated mound, located approximately 85m to the south of the proposed alignment;  21 Listed Buildings, all Grade II, located to the south of the proposed alignment. Four non-designated heritage assets are known with 500m of the proposed alignment:  An Iron Age and Romano-British settlement at Hadham School;  The remains of an 18th century windmill, which survives only as a brick base;  A probable Medieval moated site;  Stane Street, a Roman road, now overlaid by the existing A120.

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These non-designated assets are of local, and in the case of Stane Street, regional importance.

5.6.4 Assessment The only known heritage asset that would be directly affected by the proposed alignment, is Stane Street, which would be impacted to the east and west of Little Hadham where the proposed alignment ties into the existing A120. The available data suggests that there is a high potential for as-yet undiscovered archaeological deposits dating from the Iron Age, Romano-British and Medieval periods; the potential for remains from other periods cannot be stated with confidence on the basis of existing data. Where archaeological deposits lie within the proposed alignment, the construction working area and compound locations, these would likely be destroyed by construction, which is considered likely to be a major/moderate adverse impact. The new alignment would alter the setting of Listed Buildings, and it is considered likely that this impact would be slight adverse. The proposed alignment would pass within 85m of the scheduled Medieval moated mound, however, at this point the road would be in cutting and it is considered likely that the impact upon the setting of the monument would be slight adverse.

5.6.5 Potential mitigation and conclusions The following mitigation is considered appropriate for the proposed scheme, based on current information:  Full archaeological Desk Based Assessment, taking into account any new data that may have been made available since 2007 when the HER data considered in this assessment was acquired;  Geophysical survey should be undertaken of the proposed alignment and the Limit of Land to be Acquired or Used (LLAU), to identify areas for archaeological interest;  Archaeological trial trenching should be undertaken to characterise the date, extent and significance of archaeological deposits that may be identified by the geophysical survey;  A programme of archaeological recording should be implemented prior to or during construction, commensurate with the significance of the archaeological deposits that would be affected by the proposed alignment.

5.7 Biodiversity

5.7.1 Introduction The ecological appraisal was informed following review of desk-based and field survey data collected from within 2km of the route alignment. The methodology

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and baseline conditions are described and predicted impacts and potential mitigation are outlined. Preliminary conclusions and recommendations for further work to inform later assessments are provided.

5.7.2 Methodology Desk Study Data on designated nature conservation sites and species subject to the provisions of legislation, and otherwise notable species within 2km of the alignment were obtained from the Hertfordshire Biological Records Centre. Field Survey A walkover survey from public rights of way within 500m of the alignment was undertaken by two Arup ecologists on 7th August 2013. During the survey details of habitats and characteristic plant species potentially impact by the scheme were recorded in accordance with standard guidance (JNCC, 201024). The habitats were also assessed for their potential to support species that are subject to the provisions of legislation or otherwise notable species including: plants (including invasive non-natives), great crested newt (Triturus cristatus), reptiles, breeding birds, bats, water vole (Arvicola amphibius), hazel dormouse (Muscardinus avellanarius) and badger (Meles meles). Limitations It was not possible to survey the entire affected area because access was restricted to adjacent public rights of way; however, much of the route was visible from public rights of way to facilitate habitat recording. No account can be made for the presence or absence of a species on any one survey occasion, as certain species may only be evident at certain times of year or have extensive territories. However, professional judgement and experience allows the likely presence of these species to be predicted with sufficient certainty so as to not significantly limit the validity of these findings.

5.7.3 Baseline Habitats The alignment crosses undulating farmland on chalky boulder clay. The majority of fields are used for growing arable crops. During the survey, bread wheat (Triticum aestivum) was the main crop type with occasional fields of oilseed rape (Brassica napus), lucerne (Medicago sativa) and fallow land. The eastern end of the alignment is in species-poor semi-improved grassland which was grazed by cattle. Hedgerows are the main type of field boundary along the alignment. The hedgerows vary considerably in terms of structure, management and tree and shrub species diversity. Some hedgerows may qualify as ‘Important’ according to the Wildlife and Landscape Criteria of the Hedgerows Regulations 1997.

24 JNCC (2010). Handbook for Phase 1 Habitat Survey: A Technique for Environmental Audit. Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Peterborough.

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The alignment traverses four watercourses, which are:  Two water-filled ditches (Feature 1 in Section 5.8 ), which are located approximately 250m north-west of Little Hadham;  The River Ash, which is located approximately 750m north-east of Little Hadham; and,  A water-filled ditch (Feature 3), which is located approximately 720m north- east of Hadham Hall. There are scattered blocks of semi-natural broad-leaved woodland within 500m of the alignment, all of which are designated Ancient Woodland Inventory Sites and Wildlife Sites:  Foxearth Wood, which is located approximately 300m south-west of the alignment;  Albury End Wood, which is located approximately 500m north-west of the alignment;  Bloodhounds Wood & High Wood, which is located approximately 200m north-east of the alignment;  Little Plantings Wood, which is located approximately 50m south of the alignment;  Great Plantings Wood, which is located approximately 100m south-east of the alignment; and,  East Wood, which is located approximately 400m south of the alignment. The above designated woodlands are characterised by standard pedunculate oak (Quercus robur), with coppiced hornbeam (Carpinus betulus) and hazel (Corylus avellana). Several ponds were recorded within 500m of the alignment at Hadham Hall and north-east of Hadham Park. Calcareous grassland occurs at Little Hadham Chalk Pit Wildlife Site, which is located approximately 300m south-east from the alignment. Notable plant species recorded in Little Hadham Chalk Pit are:  Early spider orchid (Ophrys sphegodes) which is Nationally Scarce25, but introduced to this site which was last reported on 4 May 2003; and,  Chiltern gentian (Gentianella germanica) which was last reported in 1988. Species No signs of species that are subject to the provisions of legislation or otherwise notable were recorded near the alignment. However, habitats capable of supporting the following protected species were noted:  Plants (including invasive non-natives);  Great crested newt;  Reptiles;

25 National Scarce species occur in between 16 and 100 one kilometre squares of the Ordnance Survey Grid.

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 Breeding birds;  Bats;  Water vole;  Hazel dormouse; and,  Badger.

5.7.4 Assessment Habitats Further surveys are required to determine predicted impacts. Impacts will include the severance of hedgerows and potential realignment of watercourses at crossing- points (Feature 1, River Ash and Feature 3). This will affect connectivity between areas of semi-natural habitats and the ability of species to disperse across the preferred option alignment. Species At this stage, it is not possible to determine if impacts of the alignment will result in significant adverse effects to species.

5.7.5 Potential mitigation and conclusions Habitat Hedgerows would be planted in suitable locations to link existing sections to help maintain integrity and species dispersal, including either side of the alignment. A diverse range of native tree and shrub species will be used, which are of local provenance and typical of the South Suffolk & North Essex Clayland Natural Character Area (NCA), which includes this part of Hertfordshire where the route is proposed. Realigned sections of watercourse could be naturalised with pools to provide refuge for aquatic animals during storm surges, with soft banks and shelves to facilitate the establishment of marginal vegetation and to attract a wide range of species. Calcareous grassland would be established on cutting and embankment slopes. The calcareous grassland seed mixture would contain grass and forb species which are of local provenance and typical of the South Suffolk & North Essex Clayland NCA. Consideration would be given to inclusion of larval food plants of certain butterfly species, such as grizzled skipper (Pyrgus malvae) and chalkhill blue (Polyommatus coridon), which are listed on the Hertfordshire Local Biodiversity Action Plan (LBAP). Species At this stage, it is not possible to determine what mitigation may be required to avoid or reduce impact to species. Conclusions The loss of farmland, severance of hedgerows and realignment of watercourses of low ecological value along the alignment are certain to have at least a slight

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adverse impact. However, until further ecology surveys are undertaken it is not possible to determine the full range of predicted impacts. Where possible, impacts to valued ecological receptors would need to be avoided and appropriate mitigation and/or compensation measures implemented in accordance with legislation and planning policy. Opportunities for biodiversity gain and contribution to Hertfordshire LBAP objectives and targets would need considered in accordance with best practice. Recommendations To inform further assessment of the impacts it will be necessary for land access to be arranged 500m either side of the proposed works area for ecology surveys. Is it suggested that a Phase 1 Habitat Survey be undertaken to ascertain whether the following surveys should be undertaken:  Hedgerows (Hedgerows Regulations survey),  Plants (including invasive non-natives that are listed on Schedule 9 of the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981 [as amended]),  Great crested newt,  Reptiles,  Breeding birds,  Bats,  Water vole,  Hazel dormouse; and,  Badger.

5.8 Water Environment

5.8.1 Introduction This appraisal examines the potential impacts on the water environment within the area surrounding the alignment of the A120 Little Hadham bypass

5.8.2 Methodology A desk based WebTAG appraisal (Section 3.3.11) has been applied to the preferred alignment.

5.8.3 Baseline The baseline conditions have been established from the drawing ‘Approved Route Alignment’ produced by Mouchel in August 2008. Internet based mapping and aerial photos and easily obtainable data in the public domain such as the mapped data available on the Environment Agency’s website have also been reviewed.

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The surface water hydrology is characterised by a number of existing watercourses. Figure 2 indicates that there are a number of water features in the vicinity of the preferred route.

Figure 5 Existing Surface Water Features

These include:  The River Ash;  Feature 1 – A network of watercourses to the west of the River Ash and to the north of the existing A120. These coalesce to become tributaries of the River Ash. These are referred to as the Albury tributaries in the River Ash Flood Risk Management Strategy (River Ash FRMS 2006) produced by Atkins on behalf of the Environment Agency (EA);  Feature 2 – A length of drainage channel;  Feature 3 – The Cradle End Brook;  Feature 4 – A small tributary to the River Ash located south of the existing A120 flowing from the west;  Feature 5 – A small tributary to the River Ash located south of the existing A120 flowing from the east;  An irrigation reservoir;  Large waterbody (not indicated on Mouchel’s Plan). In addition there are small ponds located within the grounds of Hadham Hall, in and around Church End and Church End Farm and at Hadham Park. All the watercourses except for Features 2 and 5 are main river.

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The River Ash has a flood zone associated with it, as shown on the Environment Agency’s (EA’s) indicative flood mapping. This is based on detailed fluvial hydraulic modelling undertaken as part of the River Ash FRMS . Therefore, the extent of this outline should be treated with caution. The other watercourses are not shown any flood zone on the EA’s indicative flood mapping but that does not mean that flooding does not occur it merely indicates a lack of analysis or assessment. The only water quality information available is for the River Ash. The EA’s website indicates historic water quality monitoring located approximately 8km downstream of Little Hadham. This indicates a river with a chemical General Quality Assessment (GQA) Grade of B, a biological grade of A, phosphate levels registered at Grade 2 and nitrates at Grade 5. This indicates good water quality but elevated levels of nitrates, probably caused by the application of fertilisers over surrounding farm land being washed into the river system. In terms of the WebTAG appraisal methodology the baseline conditions of the surface water environment is only assessed in terms of the River Ash and its tributaries. This system is characterised as medium quality, local importance, low rarity and relatively easy to replace. The hydrogeology of the proposed route is variable and is dictated by the underlying geology. This is comprised of:  Fluvial deposits (alluvium) along the River Ash and its tributaries - Designated ‘secondary undifferentiated’ indicating low water bearing potential;  Glacial-fluvial deposits – highly variable strata with the potential to contain significant volumes of water at some locations. Designated Secondary A aquifer.  London Clay - a highly impermeable rock and prevents infiltration from occurring;  Woolwich and Reading Beds - designated a secondary A aquifer indicating that there is potential for significant quantities of water in some locations;  Chalk - Hydro-geologically the most important strata. This outcrops in the vicinity of Little Hadham and has been designated a principle aquifer. This indicates that it is a significant waterbody and it is utilised as a potable water supply. Furthermore there is an abstraction point and associated Source Protection Zone (SPZ) located in the vicinity of Little Hadham. The River Basin Management Plan data available from the EA’s website indicates that the existing groundwater regime is at risk and that the quality of the water is lower than would be expected both in the Chalk and the other water bearing strata. In terms of WebTAG the groundwater environment is characterised by the chalk aquifer. This is considered high quality, regionally important and of low rarity due to its significant geographical extent. The substitutability of this feature is also low as it is virtually impossible to replace an aquifer if the water within the strata is compromised.

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5.8.4 Assessment There is potential for the local water environment to be impacted by the proposed scheme in terms of quality and quantity. Each watercourse indicated in Figure 5 will act as a receptor for surface water discharges. In comparison to the existing conditions the amount of surface water generated from rainfall events will increase due to the placement of hardstanding. This could potentially increase flood risk to adjacent land users. In addition, the surface water discharges will contain highway related pollutants (hydrocarbons and heavy metals) from the road surface and discharge these to the receiving watercourses. If these discharges were left uncontrolled the impact to the receiving watercourses considered moderate adverse. If contaminated surface water were allowed to infiltrate to the underlying principle chalk aquifer, the impact could be large adverse as this could lead to an overall reduction in water quality. This stratum currently supports potable water supply abstractions. The watercourse crossing points could increase flood risk due to a potential for flow capacity to be reduced and a loss of floodplain storage constricted. On the whole this would increase the risk posed to undeveloped areas (farm land etc); such an increase in flooding would still be a moderate adverse as it would change the way the land can be used.

5.8.5 Potential mitigation and conclusions By incorporating sustainable drainage and taking due regards of the underlying principle aquifer (limiting infiltration using liners) the impact of the receiving ground and surface waters can be strictly limited in such a way that the impact would be minor. In addition there is a known flooding problem at Little Hadham. Proposals have been submitted to use the proposed embankment as a formal flood management structure. The watercourse crossings would be engineered to regulate flow of water downstream. Flood water would be held back and stored behind the embankment and contained within an area designed to accommodate this excess water. The design of the crossing and the storage area would have to be undertaken to ensure there was no increased risk to developed areas upstream. The Environment Agency are supporters of using the proposed scheme to lessen flood risk at Little Hadham.

5.9 Physical Fitness

5.9.1 Introduction Transport schemes can have many different impacts in relation to human health, which can be both positive or negative. Positive impacts include providing links between land uses (and therefore community facilities, such as doctors, dentist

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and pharmacies), promoting physical fitness and providing recreational infrastructure. Negative impacts can be associated with air pollution from increased traffic generation, severance of important land use linkages and increase nuisance from noise. Many of these potential issues are addressed through particular sections of this report, with this section specifically addressing how the preferred option will affect physical fitness within the local area. In particular, it identifies people’s ability to undertake cycling and walking trips, the number of trips made and the effect on journey times as a result of the preferred option being implemented.

5.9.2 Methodology The appraisal of physical fitness impacts associated with the preferred option has been undertaken using a methodology described in TAG and based on guidance contained within DMRB, Volume 11. This methodology requires consideration of the changes in the number and length of journeys that are made by bicycle or on foot. It is recognised that the minimum time for beneficial health effects to result from physical activity is approximately 30 minutes, therefore impacts should be assessed using the four point scale below:  For new walking and cycle trips where journey times are below 30 minutes, there will be some minor health benefits;  For new walking and cycle trips where journey times are above 30 minutes, there will be significant health benefits;  For existing walking and cycle trips, where the journey time remains above 30 minutes, health benefits will be largely unchanged;  For existing walking and cycle trips, where the journey time falls below 30 minutes, there will be minor reductions in health benefits. At this level of assessment it is not possible to calculate changes in the numbers of walking and cycling trips and journey times. Instead, general conclusions have been reached based on the possible impact of the preferred scheme, expressed in terms of an overall positive, neutral, adverse or unknown impact.

5.9.3 Baseline For this level of assessment, no information has been gathered in relation to pedestrian journeys, though cycle turning count information has been provided for the Station Road / Albury Road junction. The turning count information is observed data based on a 0700 – 1900 attended survey on 9 May 2013 and is presented below.

Table 14: Cycle turning counts – Station Road / Albury Road Route Cycle Count Station road West to Station Road East 0 Station road West to Albury Road North 0 Station road West to Albury Road South 0 Station Road East to Station Road West 0

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Station Road East to Albury Road North 1 Station Road East to Albury Road South 0 Albury Road North to Albury Road South 5 Albury Road North to Station Road East 1 Albury Road North to Station Road West 0 Albury Road South to Albury Road North 4 Albury Road South to Station Road East 0 Albury Road South to Station Road West 2 Total 13

Apart from the information in the table above, there is no currently available data on the number and routes (origin and destinations) of cycling and pedestrian journeys, though certain assumptions can be made on the likelihood of impacts relating to trips. It has also been noted, based on work undertaken by HCC in 2007, that the following observations have been made:  There are many public rights of way crossing the existing A120;  There are no cycling facilities along the A120 however cycling is not prohibited;  Some sections of the A120 have footways alongside the road to allow pedestrians to walk in certain areas;  Due to its rural nature, horse riding is popular in the area;  There are no controlled crossing points along the existing route. It is unlikely that these observations have changed from 2007 onwards.

5.9.4 Assessment Whilst there is limited information relating to walking or cycling journeys within the local study area, the design of the preferred option (including grade separated junctions and restrictions on use) suggests that impacts within the local study area are likely to be negligible. It is unlikely that the number and length of journeys, either within Little Hadham for cyclists and pedestrians or through Little Hadham for cyclists, will change significantly. Infrastructure improvements will result in new roundabouts to the east of the village near The Lodge and to the west of the village near Little Plantings Wood. These new infrastructure features do not represent a barrier to movement and may give pedestrians in particular a safer method of crossing the main road, should crossing points be provided. The alignment of the bypass incorporates grade separation at various locations to maintain access. Where access is being stopped up, alternative access is being provided with a negligible change in journey time. Based on information received to date, no significant impacts are likely in relation to pupil journeys to Little Hadham primary school.

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5.9.5 Potential mitigation and conclusions The implementation of a bypass to the north of Little Hadham is likely to have neutral impacts with respect to physical fitness. Associated pedestrian journeys are unlikely to change as movements are still likely to be centered within the village of Little Hadham with little need to utilise the bypass. Cycllists will be prevented from using the bypass, and directed through the village. Through traffic will be reduced, so cycling journeys may become more appealing. Based on current cycling turning count data, there is unlikely to be a large increase in cycling numbers. Incorporating mitigation through design will be one way of maximising physical fitness benefits associated with the scheme. Ensuring that bypass crossings (both existing and proposed) are grade separated will offer a safer environment for non- motorised users. Providing appropriate pedestrian crossings on, or near, roundabouts will also help to encourage safer pedestrian journeys.

5.10 Journey Ambience

5.10.1 Introduction Journey ambience refers to the quality of a journey, which can be affected, positively or negatively, by those undertaking the journey as well as those designing or operating new infrastructure. The assessment of journey influence focuses on measures that are controlled by infrastructure designers and operators, which fall into the following three groupings:  Traveller care;  Traveller views; and,  Traveller Stress. The preferred option for the A120 Little Hadham bypass potentially incorporates specific design elements that can affect journey ambience.

5.10.2 Methodology Traveller Care The following factors should be taken into consideration when assessing traveller care:  Facilities – number and frequency of lay-bys, rest-areas and service stations and the various facilities that are provided at these sites such as toilets, catering and petrol;  Condition of the facilities including cleanliness and extent of overcrowding;  Information such as directional and warning signs. The potential impacts on traveller care will be assessed using a simple three point scale of better, neutral or worse, as it is difficult to objectively quantify levels of impact change.

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Traveller Views Changes to the transport infrastructure can affect how travellers interpret the surrounding environment, which can affect the attractiveness of the travelling environment. With respect to the A120 Little Hadham bypass, the construction of new infrastructure may enable travellers to see and appreciate notable landscape features, or alternatively, construction that is predominantly in cutting may screen such features. The potential impacts on traveller care will be assessed using a simple three point scale of better, neutral or worse, as it is difficult to objectively quantify levels of impact change. Traveller Stress Traveller stress is the adverse mental and physiological effects experienced by travellers. There are three main factors that can influence traveller stress, which are:  Frustration;  Fear of potential accidents; and  Route uncertainty. Factors which may influence frustration levels include:  Congestion / slow speeds;  The road layout and geometry;  The condition of the road network; and,  The ability to make good progress along a route. The main factors that lead to a fear of accidents are the presence of other vehicles, inadequate sight distances and the possibility of pedestrians stepping out into the road. In addition there are secondary factors that may be considered such as whether the flow in each direction is physically separated, the width of the carriageway, presence and quality of lighting, road markings, road studs and safety barriers and also the quantity of HGVs. A road scheme has the potential to increase vehicle flow and speeds, but will also be built to a superior standard, offering a higher quality road surface and possibly lighting. Route uncertainty relates to the travellers’ planning of a particular journey and how sure they are about it en-route. Clear signs and layouts can assist drivers making the correct route decisions when travelling. The potential impacts on traveller care will be assessed using a simple three point scale of better, neutral or worse, as it is difficult to objectively quantify levels of impact change. Overall Score Once the factors described above have been assessed, the following nine point scale can be used to derive an overall assessment score for impacts of options on journey ambience:  Large Adverse – If the numbers of travellers affected adversely across the sub- factors is high (more than 10,000 a day);

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 Moderate Adverse – If the numbers of travellers affected adversely across the sub-factors is moderate (between 500 and 10,000 a day);  Slight Adverse – If the numbers of travellers affected adversely across the sub-factors is low (less than 500 a day);  Adverse - If the change in impact across the sub-factors is, on balance, for the worse;  Neutral – When the assessment is neutral for all or most of the sub-factors, or improvements on some sub-factors are generally balanced by deterioration in others;  Beneficial – If the change in impact across the sub-factors is, on balance for the better;  Slight Beneficial – If the numbers of travellers affected beneficially across the sub-factors is low (less than 500 a day);  Moderate Beneficial – If the numbers of travellers affected beneficially across the sub-factors is moderate (between 500 and 10,000 a day); and  Large Beneficial – If the numbers of travellers affected beneficially across the sub-factors is high (more than 10,000 a day).

5.10.3 Baseline Traffic along the A120 is heavy at certain times of the day, with traffic subject to long queues at the Little Hadham lights during both morning and evening peak times. The eastbound 5-day and 7-day averages along the A120 through Little Hadham are 7,615 and 7,021 movements respectively. The eastbound 5-day and 7-day averages along the A120 through Little Hadham are 7,189 and 6,757 movements respectively. The study area is rural in nature and therefore views are pleasant throughout.

5.10.4 Assessment The effects are associated with traveller care are likely to be neutral. Despite the number of travellers being affected falling within the range of 500 to 10,000 per day, the travellers will only be beneficially affected by the improvement in the local environment (rural, open fields) as there will be limited facilities provided on the bypass. Therefore, travellers seeking these facilities (food, petrol, rest) may still need to travel through Little Hadham, though albeit in a slightly better traveling experience. The effect on traveller views is likely to be a moderate beneficial impact as the majority of traveller views will now be that of a pleasant, open rural environment. In terms of traveller stress, the construction of a new bypass is likely to be a moderate beneficial impact. This will be as a result of:  Good sight lines and visibility either to or above design standards will improve the feel of safety along the route;  The route will have new road markings leading to a better and clearer layout;

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 No lighting will be provided along the proposed routes except at roundabouts and junctions. This will result in limited light pollution and reduce fear of accidents at junctions;  Carriageway widths will be designed to standard and will allow sufficient width for larger vehicles;  Safety barriers will be installed along the route at locations where it is recommended in current guidance; and,  Clear signs and simple roundabout entry and exit will make access to the bypass simple for travellers.

5.10.5 Potential mitigation and conclusions Overall, the new bypass is likely to lead to moderate beneficial impacts on journey ambience. Further assessment will be required once the final design is known, particularly in relation to traveller care, but the bypass provides the opportunity to significantly increase the quality of traveller views and reduce driver stress.

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Appendix E Project Plan

Project Plan A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) Version: v2 Key Milestones 03/12/2013 Hertfordshire County Council 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Activity Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Jun-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Feb-14 Mar-14 Feb-15 Mar-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 Feb-17 Mar-17 Feb-18 Mar-18 Feb-19 Mar-19 Aug-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Aug-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Aug-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Aug-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19

Stage 1: Scheme Development Design Development Design Review Full Business Case Stage 2: Statutory Procedures Approval of Business Case sign-off and Environmental Impact Assessment major scheme funding approved (Local Approval to proceed to Statutory Engagement Transport Body) Procedures (Hertfordshire County Council) CPO Procedures/ Road Orders

Potential Inquiry Approval of Growth Fund contribution (Local Enterprise Partnership)

Stage 3: Procurement Process Tender Procedures Approval to commence Statutory Procedures Approval to proceed to (Hertfordshire County Public Inquiry if Inspector's Report: Council) required (Hertfordshire Approval to proceed to County Council) Procurement Payment of Environment Payment of Agency contribution of (Hertfordshire County Approval to issue Stansted Airport £1.0M Council) OJEU Notice contribution of (Hertfordshire £0.33M (inc. Stage 4: Design & Construction County Council) inflation) Detailed Design Mobilisation Final Decision to proceed: Approval to `` Construction award contract (Hertfordshire County Maintenance Council)

Key: Work Package Critical Path Milestones Hertfordshire County Council Decision

Funding Approval

Funding Point

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Appendix F Risk and Controls Report

Date Printed: 09-Jan-2014 A120 Little Hadham Bypass Risk and Controls

Current Risk Score Target Risk Score Risk Ref Short Description Consequences Risk Status Controls Control Risk Owner Next Review Start date Owner End Date Likelihood Impact Score Likelihood Impact Score LH0001 As a result of relying Which may result in the 4 16 64 Reduce Clarify all the various Alissa Ede 1 16 16 Richard 6-Jan-14 on multiple funding project not being fully Likely Very Severe sources of funding for the Rare Very Significant Boutal sources, there is a risk funded and therefore High scheme High that one or more undeliverable A120 Little Hadham sources are unable to Complete Bypass provide sufficient funding Clarify the process to obtain Alissa Ede funding In Progress

Prepare/present business Alissa Ede case to Local Transport Body (LTB) In Progress

Detail required funding for Alissa Ede scheme In Progress

Prepare business case for Alissa Ede Environment Agency (EA)

In Progress

Prepare business case for Alissa Ede Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) In Progress

Include Environment Agency Alissa Ede (EA) Representative on board In Progress

Created by Performance and Risk Manangement Team Page 1 of 11 Date Printed: 09-Jan-2014 A120 Little Hadham Bypass Risk and Controls

Clarify the position held by Alissa Ede Stansted Airport regarding their contribution to the scheme.

In Progress

Ensure milestones/deadlines Alissa Ede are identified in the project plan

In Progress

Agree Memorandum of Alissa Ede Understanding (MoU) and Partnership Agreement details with Environment Agency (EA)

In Progress

Include a Local Enterprise Alissa Ede Partnership (LEP) Representative on the project board

Proposed

Created by Performance and Risk Manangement Team Page 2 of 11 Date Printed: 09-Jan-2014 A120 Little Hadham Bypass Risk and Controls

Current Risk Score Target Risk Score Risk Ref Short Description Consequences Risk Status Controls Control Risk Owner Next Review Start date Owner End Date Likelihood Impact Score Likelihood Impact Score LH0007 In the event of not Which may result in a 4 16 64 Reduce Develop a procurement Evelyn 2 8 16 Richard 6-Jan-14 clarifying contractual significant whole life Likely Very Severe report outlining the various Poulton Unlikely High Significant Boutal responsibilities, cost or liability for the High procurement options liabilities, regulatory County Council A120 Little Hadham frameworks and risks Proposed Bypass there is a risk that the procurement process and contractual Allocate a sufficient amount Alissa Ede documents are not of time in the programme for drafted correctly the procurement process

Proposed

Ensure procurement issues Alissa Ede are outlined in the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and understood by the Environment Agency (EA)

Proposed

Ensure that the HCC Alissa Ede Procurement and Legal Teams are represented on the Steering Group

Complete

Ensure that correct Pauline insurance requirements are Tinelly included in the relevant procurement documents

In Progress

Created by Performance and Risk Manangement Team Page 3 of 11 Date Printed: 09-Jan-2014 A120 Little Hadham Bypass Risk and Controls

Current Risk Score Target Risk Score Risk Ref Short Description Consequences Risk Status Controls Control Risk Owner Next Review Start date Owner End Date Likelihood Impact Score Likelihood Impact Score LH0003 As a result of Which may result in 3 16 48 Reduce Hold prebidder meetings to Richard 1 1 1 Richard 6-Jan-14 improvement within the little or no interest in Possible Very Severe identify potential contractors, Boutal Rare Negligibl Manageable Boutal economy there is a risk the scheme High advise them of the work e that there will be timetable and monitor their A120 Little Hadham insufficient capacity availability Bypass within the market Proposed

Include this project as part of Alissa Ede the overall list of schemes to be delivered within the period

Proposed

Identify list of approved EA Alissa Ede contractors for dam construction Proposed

Keep funding sources Alissa Ede informed on any capacity constraints within the market

Proposed

Created by Performance and Risk Manangement Team Page 4 of 11 Date Printed: 09-Jan-2014 A120 Little Hadham Bypass Risk and Controls

Current Risk Score Target Risk Score Risk Ref Short Description Consequences Risk Status Controls Control Risk Owner Next Review Start date Owner End Date Likelihood Impact Score Likelihood Impact Score LH0004 As a result of HCC and Which may result in 3 16 48 Reduce Agree Memorandum of Alissa Ede 2 4 8 Richard 6-Jan-14 the Environment conflict, delay or Possible Very Severe Understanding (MoU) and Unlikely Medium Material Boutal Agency working in contractual failures High Partnership Agreement partnership to deliver details with Environment A120 Little Hadham multiple objectives, Agency (EA) Bypass there is a risk that the project objectives and Proposed partner responsibilities are not well defined Define the project Alissa Ede governance structure in the Project Initiation Document (PID) ensuring we understand liability and risk

Proposed

Implement and manage a Alissa Ede robust Project Plan Proposed

Identify the milestone for Alissa Ede delivery of the Little Hadham Bypass without the flood storage area

Proposed

Review the backup plan of Alissa Ede delivery the Little Hadham Bypass without the flood storage area

Proposed

Created by Performance and Risk Manangement Team Page 5 of 11 Date Printed: 09-Jan-2014 A120 Little Hadham Bypass Risk and Controls

Ensure that the approvals Alissa Ede process for all aspects of the scheme is understood and defined in the relevant documents

Proposed

Liaise with the Maintenance Alissa Ede Team to understand their concerns Proposed

Created by Performance and Risk Manangement Team Page 6 of 11 Date Printed: 09-Jan-2014 A120 Little Hadham Bypass Risk and Controls

Current Risk Score Target Risk Score Risk Ref Short Description Consequences Risk Status Controls Control Risk Owner Next Review Start date Owner End Date Likelihood Impact Score Likelihood Impact Score LH0005 In the event of Which may result in the 3 16 48 Reduce Undertake a review and Alissa Ede 2 8 16 Alissa Ede 6-Jan-14 unanticipated project being delayed Possible Very Severe workshop of the decision Unlikely High Significant objections that could or cancelled High process to this point be raised by external A120 Little Hadham stakeholders at Complete Bypass different points in the programme there is a risk that the objections Identify any potential Aaron are significant and objections to the scheme Douglas deemed to be within the issues register reasonable Proposed

Prepare template to Aaron document decisons and Douglas assumptions Proposed

Brief local member on any Alissa Ede potential issues whenever they arise Proposed

Implement a communication Alison Mully strategy outlining stakeholder/public engagement including through scheme website and newsletters

Proposed

Ensure that the scheme Alissa Ede programme has the flexibility to properly address objections when they arise

Created by Performance and Risk Manangement Team Page 7 of 11 Date Printed: 09-Jan-2014 A120 Little Hadham Bypass Risk and Controls

LH0009 In the event of national 3 16 48 Accept 3 16 48 6-Feb-14 Which may result in No Controls Richard or local political delays, increased costs Possible Very Severe Possible Very Severe Boutal changes, there is a risk or cancellation of the High High that funding or scheme A120 Little Hadham governance Bypass arrangements may change

Created by Performance and Risk Manangement Team Page 8 of 11 Date Printed: 09-Jan-2014 A120 Little Hadham Bypass Risk and Controls

Current Risk Score Target Risk Score Risk Ref Short Description Consequences Risk Status Controls Control Risk Owner Next Review Start date Owner End Date Likelihood Impact Score Likelihood Impact Score LH0008 In the event of a lack of Which may result in 4 8 32 Reduce Implement and manage a Alissa Ede 2 2 4 Alissa Ede 6-Jan-14 good planning and delays or additional Likely High Severe Project Plan Unlikely Low Manageable programming, there is cost to the project Proposed a risk that an A120 Little Hadham unanticipated activity Bypass or objective has not been thought through Ensure programme is robust Alissa Ede properly or not enough enough to anticipate time has been allowed resource issues and cover unforeseen resourcing limitations

Proposed

Establish an issues register Aaron to manager key issues on Douglas the scheme and add escalting issues as an agenda item

Proposed

Implement a Project Alissa Ede Initiation Document (PID) including a robust project governance structure

Proposed

Created by Performance and Risk Manangement Team Page 9 of 11 Date Printed: 09-Jan-2014 A120 Little Hadham Bypass Risk and Controls

Current Risk Score Target Risk Score Risk Ref Short Description Consequences Risk Status Controls Control Risk Owner Next Review Start date Owner End Date Likelihood Impact Score Likelihood Impact Score LH0002 As a result of Which may result in 3 8 24 Reduce Add resources to the Major Richard 1 4 4 Richard 6-Jan-14 insufficient resources delays in the Possible High Significant Projects Group Boutal Rare Medium Manageable Boutal (due to transformation completion date or Complete agenda, multiple failure to deliver by the A120 Little Hadham simultaneous deadline Bypass procurements, multiple demands on central Monitor resource Aaron departments or third requirements on Steering Douglas party partners) there is Group by adding an agenda a risk that resources item are not available at the required time to In Progress support the project

Ensure all resources are Alissa Ede named in the Project Initiation Document (PID) Complete

Agree Memorandum of Alissa Ede Understanding (MoU) and Partnership Agreement details with Environment Agency (EA)

In Progress

Ensure programme is robust Alissa Ede enough to anticipate resource issues and cover unforeseen resourcing limitations

In Progress

Created by Performance and Risk Manangement Team Page 10 of 11 Date Printed: 09-Jan-2014 A120 Little Hadham Bypass Risk and Controls

Current Risk Score Target Risk Score Risk Ref Short Description Consequences Risk Status Controls Control Risk Owner Next Review Start date Owner End Date Likelihood Impact Score Likelihood Impact Score LH0006 In the event of not Which may result in 3 8 24 Reduce Establish an issues register Aaron 2 2 4 Alissa Ede 6-Jan-14 managing stakeholder damage to the County Possible High Significant to manager key issues on Douglas Unlikely Low Manageable expectations there is a Council's reputation the scheme and add risk that the escalating issues as an A120 Little Hadham programme does not agenda item Bypass go to plan Proposed

Implement a communication Alison Mully strategy outlining stakeholder/public engagement including through scheme website and newsletters

Proposed

Ensure all scheme Alissa Ede objectives are achievable and measureable Proposed

Implement a Project Alissa Ede Initiation Document (PID) including a robust project governance structure

Proposed

Implement and manage a Alissa Ede Project Plan Proposed

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Appendix G WebTAG Guidance

WebTAG Guidance – current December 2013

2.9.1 Variable Demand Modelling – Advice Overview ‐ Date June 2006

2.9.2 An Introduction to Variable Demand Modelling – Date June 2006

3.3.1 The Environment Objective – Date December 2004

3.3.2 The Noise Sub‐Objective – Date August 2012

3.3.3 The Air quality Sub‐Objective – Date August 2012

3.3.5 The Green House Gases Sub‐Objective – Date February 2013

3.3.6 The Environmental Capital Approach – Date June 2003

3.3.7 The Landscape Sub Objective – Date December 2004

3.3.8 The Town Landscape Sub Objective ‐ Date December 2004

3.3.9 The Heritage or Historic Resources Sub Objective – Date June 2009

3.3.10 The biodiversity Sub‐Objective – Date December 2004

3.3.11 The Water Environment Sub‐Objective – Date June 2003

3.3.12 The Physical Fitness Sub‐Objective – Date April 2009

3.3.13 The Journey Ambience Sub Objective – June 2003

3.4.1 The Accidents Sub Objective – Date August 2012

3.4.2 The Security Sub‐Objective – date April 2011

3.5.1 The Public Accounts Sub‐Objective – Date April 2011

3.5.2 The Transport Economic Efficiency Sub‐Objective – Date April 2011

3.5.3 Transport Benefit Computation ‐ Date April 2011

3.5.4 Cost Benefit Analysis – Date August 2012

3.5.6 Values of Time and Operating Costs – Date August 2012

3.5.7 The Reliability Sub‐Objective – Date April 2009

3.5.8 Regeneration Impacts – Date April 2011 3.5.9 The Treatment of Costs – Date August 2012

3.5.14 The Wider Impacts Sub‐Objective – Date August 2012

3.6.1 The Option Values Sub‐Objective – Date August 2012

3.6.2 The Severance Sub‐Objective – Date April 2011

3.6.3 The access to the Transport System Sub‐Objective – Date April 2011

3.6.4 The Personal Affordability Sub‐Objective – Date April 2011

3.9.2 MSA – Cost Benefit Analysis – Date April 2004

3.10.1 Variable Demand Modelling – Preliminary Assessment Procedures – Date June 2006

13.15.2 Use of TEMPRO Data – Date April 2009

Appendix H Draft Memorandum of Understanding between Hertfordshire County Council and the Environment Agency

MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN HERTFORDSHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL AND THE ENVIRONMENT AGENCY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FLOOD ATTENUATION WITHIN THE A120 LITTLE HADHAM BYPASS

DRAFT 171213 HCC DRAFT SUBJECT TO FURTHER AMENDMENTS

1. The Parties

1.1 This Memorandum of Understanding (the “MOU”) is between the Environment Agency (“the EA”) and Hertfordshire County Council (“HCC”) in respect of collaborative working in the development of flood attenuation within the A120 Bypass Little Hadham.

1.2 Through this MOU the EA and HCC will seek ways of conducting business in such a manner to achieve improved efficiency and increased value for money in respect of the Scheme

2. Background Information

2.1 HCC is developing a solution to solve the traffic problem of the A120 at Little Hadham. A series of improvement options were developed and presented at a public exhibition in March 2007. HCC is currently proposing to pursue the construction of a road bypass at the A120 Little Hadham (HCC Bypass) having consulted on a range of options.

2.2 The EA had undertaken a study, following flooding in the Little Hadham area in 2001, to examine the extent of flooding along the River Ash and to evaluate potential solutions. They concluded that flood alleviation measures for the River Ash would not meet minimum criteria for central government funding at the time. The criteria for funding schemes has recently changed to a Flood and Coastal Resilience Partnership Funding process but it is likely that the EA would still need to seek contributions towards such a scheme in order to meet the gap in funding.

2.3 The proposed HCC Bypass does however offer potential opportunities for the advancement of flood alleviation measures and the EA has worked with HCC to discuss possible flood alleviation benefits that could be provided through the bypass.

2.3 The ‘outer’ northern bypass route, known as Option 5, was approved by HCC Cabinet in September 2007. A scheme along the Option 5 corridor offers potential flood storage from the embankments crossing the River Ash and Albury Tributary. This proposal would benefit the flood risk from the main River Ash.

2.4 Amendments of the tie-ins to the existing alignment, made as a result of consultation with local residents and landowners and considering the environmental impact assessment, may allow an opportunity to provide flood attenuation on the Albury Tributary of the River Ash and the Lloyd Taylor Drain.

MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN HERTFORDSHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL AND THE ENVIRONMENT AGENCY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FLOOD ATTENUATION WITHIN THE A120 LITTLE HADHAM BYPASS

DRAFT 171213 HCC DRAFT SUBJECT TO FURTHER AMENDMENTS 3. Objectives

3.1 HCC is seeking to develop a solution which meets the requirements of the EA with regard to the impact on the watercourses in the area, the flood plain and groundwater.

3.2 The EA wish to bring forward flood alleviation measures for the benefit of properties in Little Hadham and environs.

3.3 Incorporating flood alleviation works as part of the bypass may assist in meeting the objectives of both parties and as such HCC and the EA will work closely to develop FAS elements of the Scheme

3.4 HCC and the EA will work together to develop any necessary agreements and to ensure that all legal requirements in relation to FAS elements of the Scheme are met.

3.5 The main aspects of the design of FAS elements of the Scheme to be agreed between HCC and EA relate to:

 The requirement for the road embankments (if used as a flood storage bank) to meet the design and monitoring requirements of the appropriate reservoir legislation (Reservoirs Act 1975).

 The obtaining of landowners’ agreement or easements for the agricultural land upstream of the embankments that would be flooded occasionally.

 The Scheme should be designed in such a way that it ensures that there is no deterioration to relevant waterbodies status as set under the Water Framework Directive (“WFD”)

3.6 The EA will support HCC during any consultation regarding the Scheme and will provide support, as required, at public meetings / exhibitions.

3.7 The EA and HCC will outline their intention to develop the FAS elements of the Scheme. HCC and the EA will work closely to ensure that any costs accrued by the each party will be minimised through collaborative working and sharing of appropriate information.

4. Collaboration

4.1 HCC and the EA resolve to work closely on this Scheme and to pool their separate skills to achieve FAS elements of the Scheme and in accordance with an agreed timetable.

MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN HERTFORDSHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL AND THE ENVIRONMENT AGENCY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FLOOD ATTENUATION WITHIN THE A120 LITTLE HADHAM BYPASS

DRAFT 171213 HCC DRAFT SUBJECT TO FURTHER AMENDMENTS 4,2 HCC and the EA will use their reasonable endeavours to complete all work in connection with FAS elements of the Scheme to a good standard.

4.3 The Parties will work in a spirit of mutual trust and co-operation to serve the best interests of the Scheme and its objectives.

4.4 It is agreed that neither party to this MOU will seek to profit unduly from the other.

4.5 The EA will report back to HCC on their tasks in the FAS elements of the Scheme and will keep HCC up-to-date with their plans and programmes.

4.6 Where possible, efforts would be made to minimise duplication of survey works in the development of the embankments design and the design aspects required for the EA.

4.7 A collaboration agreement will be developed between HCC and the EA to formalise the relationship between both parties in respect to (amongst other things) land agreements, the flood attenuation design specification including intellectual property rights therein, construction timescales and completion, financial responsibilities, maintenance responsibilities and insurance liabilities.

5 Funding

5.1 HCC will seek appropriate funding for the HCC Bypass. The EA will offer its support in the production of the Major Scheme Business Case.

5.2 The EA will seek support from the Thames Regional Flood and Coastal Committee (RFCC) to the principle of a combined bypass and flood alleviation scheme.

5.3 The EA will seek funding approval according to its Financial Scheme of Delegation for the aspects of work which the EA would carry out, including necessary land agreements for the FAS elements of the Scheme. Any fees accrued by the EA will be funded by the EA.

5.4 It is expected that “Programme Entry” status from Local Transport Body (“LTB”) will be sought in early 2014 with construction expected around 2017. The timetable for funding will be monitored.

5.5 Design and construction costs of the embankments will form part of the Scheme. Any additional costs incurred by HCC, or savings made, as a result of including FAS elements of the Scheme , will be identified and recorded to inform the EA’s business case of all costs and benefits in kind. The Parties will work together to identify all costs and provide information MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN HERTFORDSHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL AND THE ENVIRONMENT AGENCY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FLOOD ATTENUATION WITHIN THE A120 LITTLE HADHAM BYPASS

DRAFT 171213 HCC DRAFT SUBJECT TO FURTHER AMENDMENTS necessary to claim funds for the design and construction of the Scheme from all relevant funding sources.

5.6 Subsequent maintenance responsibilities of the embankments which form the FAS elements of the Scheme will be divided between HCC and the EA and parties will work towards agreement of these prior to entering into the aforementioned collaboration agreement.

5.7 The EA will endeavour to fund and agree any necessary land ownership or agreements required for the areas behind the embankments which will be subject to flooding as a result of incorporating the FAS elements of the Scheme within the bypass design. HCC and the EA will work together to define the exact extent of boundaries required for the road construction and those required for flooding.

5.8 HCC and the EA agree to work together should significant changes occur in the development of the Scheme. Should the EA or HCC withdraw its support from the Scheme, they will continue to support each other in developing an alternative solution. An alternative would need to meet the normal regulatory requirements for development and the EA will not unreasonably withhold its consent.

5.9 Where one Party is commissioned specifically by the other Party to carry out work on their behalf which is outside the scope of 5.5 then such work shall be subject to separate invoicing and not included within the costs identified within 5.5.

5.10 HCC and the EA will provide notice to each other of any funding deadlines. All works should be completed and claimed within the timescales agreed with the funding authority.

5.11 The Parties will work together in relation to all relevant consents and permissions with the aim of, wherever possible and relevant, applying for such consents and permissions on a joint basis.

6 Procurement

6.1 The Parties are working towards a procurement strategy which envisages that HCC will be the lead party in relation to the contract for the Scheme with the aim for the appointment of a single contractor to deliver both the bypass and flood alleviation elements as one scheme

6.2 Discussions should be had between the parties prior to the letting of the contract in regard to the EA being granted third party rights to relevant MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN HERTFORDSHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL AND THE ENVIRONMENT AGENCY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FLOOD ATTENUATION WITHIN THE A120 LITTLE HADHAM BYPASS

DRAFT 171213 HCC DRAFT SUBJECT TO FURTHER AMENDMENTS design and construction contracts in relation to FAS elements of the Scheme

6.3 Any third party rights granted to the EA will be formalised within the said collaboration agreement.

6.4 The EA will provide advice and assistance in relation to the required specification for the FAS elements of the Scheme Project in line with the relationship flow diagram set out in Appendix 1 which is included within this MOU for information only

6.5 The Parties note that as part of the procurement strategy it will be necessary for the design to be approved by any independent Reservoir Engineer appointed in respect of the the FAS elements of the Scheme.

7 The Scheme

7.1 The proposed A120 Bypass (Little Hadham) lies to the north of the village. The road will be constructed on embankments where it crosses the River Ash and Albury Tributary. The embankments will be designed to a specification to allow normal regular flow and suitable to provide flood attenuation when necessary.

7.2 The EA will provide necessary design data and specification guidance to assist HCC and its partner consultancy, Opus/ARUP, in its development of the embankments design.

7.3 HCC will inform the EA of the exact extent of the land acquired for the road and embankments. The EA will inform HCC of the extent of the land which will be subject to agreement with landowners behind the embankments which will be subject to flooding. HCC and the EA will work closely to establish the extent of land ownership and agreements sought by each party.

8. Maintenance, liabilities

8.1 It is anticipated that the FAS elements of the Scheme will fall within the EA’s remit, who will carry out any regular maintenance inspections in accordance with their permissive powers subject to anything agreed in a collaboration agreement.

8.2 It is anticipated that maintenance of the road structure including any safety barriers, lighting and road construction will be adopted by HCC, who will carry out any regular maintenance inspections in accordance with their powers. MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN HERTFORDSHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL AND THE ENVIRONMENT AGENCY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FLOOD ATTENUATION WITHIN THE A120 LITTLE HADHAM BYPASS

DRAFT 171213 HCC DRAFT SUBJECT TO FURTHER AMENDMENTS

8.3 The detailed extent of maintenance and insurance liabilities will be contained within the said collaboration agreement and any rights of access agreed at that time. At the date of signature of this MOU it is anticipated that these will be in line with flow diagram attached at Appendix 1 which is attached for information only.

8. Liaison and Contacts

8.1 For HCC: Richard Boutal is Project Sponsor Mike Younghusband is Senior Responsible Officer

8.2 For the EA: Harsh Patel is Project Manager.

8.3 From time to time, HCC or the EA may appoint other officers as necessary. In the first instance, all parties will communicate through the above staff, who are responsible for liaising with their separate departments and colleagues.

9. Communications and Publicity

HCC, and the EA will draw up a communications strategy in relation to the the Scheme Agreement will be sought from all parties where and when each organisation is to be named in any statement made about the Scheme and agreement reached over the use of each Parties logo. MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN HERTFORDSHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL AND THE ENVIRONMENT AGENCY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FLOOD ATTENUATION WITHIN THE A120 LITTLE HADHAM BYPASS

DRAFT 171213 HCC DRAFT SUBJECT TO FURTHER AMENDMENTS

10. Monitoring

The EA and HCC will work together to ensure the appropriate use and performance of the embankments for the life of the structures. This will be further set out within the planned Partnership Agreement.

11. Timetable

11.1 Under the current timetable, funding should be assured in 2014, an application for planning permission anticipated by 2015 with construction programmed for 2018.

11.2 The EA and HCC will work together to create a programme timetable, agreeable to both parties. Key dates, which impact on the progress of any parts of the scheme, will be identified and both parties will work to meet key deadlines. The programme for delivery of the Scheme will form an addendum (Appendix 2) to this MOU.

11.3 This MOU will provide guidance for the initial working relationship between HCC and the EA and will be replaced when the formal collaboration agreement is put in place. HCC and the EA will aim to complete the said collaboration agreement by end of 2014.

12. Revision of Memorandum of Understanding

The Parties agree that this MOU is not legally binding, is without prejudice to the Parties statutory functions, powers and duties and should be periodically reviewed, at the instigation of any Party, should there be difficulties in delivery of the Scheme as envisaged. In this case all parties would work to give reasonable notice of any difficulties and to develop alternative options or bring the arrangements under this MOU to an end.

Signed by: ………………………………………………………….

Mike Younghusband on behalf of Hertfordshire County Council Head of Highways Operations and Strategy

Date: …………………………………………………………

MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN HERTFORDSHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL AND THE ENVIRONMENT AGENCY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FLOOD ATTENUATION WITHIN THE A120 LITTLE HADHAM BYPASS

DRAFT 171213 HCC DRAFT SUBJECT TO FURTHER AMENDMENTS

Signed by: ………………………………………………………..

[ ] on behalf of the Environment Agency Thames NE Area Manager Environment Agency

Date: ……………………………………………………….

Design, Procurement and Construction (assuming D&B). Construction Procurement/ Design Tender Process The works required for the A120 bypass and flood storage area can be split into a number of categories; Provide Complete Design Complete Embankment/Dam Works – this is the works to construct an Specification/ (potentially Construction embankment/dam to support the highway but also retain flood waters Requirements through D&B Works and during a storm event. This element of the works has elements that are Contract) manage required for both the flood alleviation scheme and the bypass scheme construction risks The works are also likely to include a culvert high up within the Prepare Tender embankment/dam to act as a spillway without affecting passage of the and Contract Ensure relevant highway. HCC responsible for obtaining funding for embankment any Documents. planning significant additional elements would be responsibility of EA. conditions are On‐going Supervision by Highways Works – this is the works on top of the embankment closed out. Independent designed to carry highway traffic. The works will primarily include Engineer highway drainage, pavement, safety barriers, and road signs. This is Review Tender likely to only represent works within a maximum of 1m below road and Contract level. HCC responsible for obtaining funding. Documents to Technical ensure all Review/Approval Works Sign‐off by Flood Attenuation Control Measures – these are the culverts, valves requirements are by Independent Independent and structures designed to restrict the flow of water during a storm met Engineer and EA Engineer event. These will be constructed upstream and downstream of the embankment/dam, but will form part of the embankment/dam. EA responsible for obtaining funding. Manage tender Incorporate Other Associated Measures – these are the other minor works, e.g process and design into the access laneways and turning areas that are primarily required for appoint Works access to the flood control measures but may be shared with the Contractor. Requirements highway authority. Minimal costs HCC responsible for obtaining funding.

The flow diagram for procurement, design and construction shown covers three of the four categories but excludes design of the Highway Works. It is envisaged HCC would be responsible for this design, procurement and construction of these works as normal.

HCC Responsibility

EA Responsibility

Shared Responsibility Design, Procurement and Construction (assuming advance detailed design of at least the flood attenuation works).

Construction The works required for the A120 bypass and flood storage area can be Design Procurement/ split into a number of categories; Tender Process

Embankment/Dam Works – this is the works to construct an embankment/dam to support the highway but also retain flood waters Incorporate during a storm event. This element of the works has elements that are Provide Complete design into the required for both the flood alleviation scheme and the bypass scheme Specification/ Construction Works The works are also likely to include a culvert high up within the Requirements Works and Requirements embankment/dam to act as a spillway without affecting passage of the manage highway. HCC responsible for obtaining funding for embankment any construction risks significant additional elements would be responsibility of EA. Complete Design (potentially Prepare Tender Highways Works – this is the works on top of the embankment through D&B and Contract designed to carry highway traffic. The works will primarily include Contract) Documents. On‐going highway drainage, pavement, safety barriers, and road signs. This is Supervision by likely to only represent works within a maximum of 1m below road Independent level. HCC responsible for obtaining funding. Engineer Ensure relevant Flood Attenuation Control Measures – these are the culverts, valves planning Review Tender and structures designed to restrict the flow of water during a storm conditions are and Contract Documents to event. These will be constructed upstream and downstream of the closed out. Works Sign‐off by ensure all embankment/dam, but will form part of the embankment/dam. EA Independent requirements are responsible for obtaining funding. Engineer met Other Associated Measures – these are the other minor works, e.g access laneways and turning areas that are primarily required for Technical access to the flood control measures but may be shared with the Review/Approval highway authority. Minimal costs HCC responsible for obtaining by Independent Manage tender funding. Engineer and EA process and appoint The flow diagram for procurement, design and construction shown Contractor. covers three of the four categories but excludes design of the Highway Works. It is envisaged HCC would be responsible for this design, procurement and construction of these works as normal.

HCC Responsibility

EA Responsibility

Shared Responsibility Operation (Liability), Maintenance and Defects/Improvements

Operation with Associated Maintenance Defects/ Improvements Liability

Grass cutting of embankment Works Defect, within Defects Improvements required Improvements required Operation and Management of slopes and surveying for period, as defined within the following changes to following changes to the use of the Flood monitoring embankment/ dam Construction Contract/ Design. Legislation associated with Legislation associated with Attenuation Control Structures dams/ reservoirs highways.

Highway surfacing, drainage, Works Defect outside or Works following a traffic Operation and Management of safety barrier, road signage, defects period or not defined accident or vandalism based on the Highway etc maintenance within the Construction ownership. Contract/ Design. Maintenance of access laneways (assuming sole use by EA) Within EA ownership and solely related to the dam/reservoir (inlet, outlet, Maintenance of inlet and access laneway) outlet structures for watercourse Within HCC ownership and solely related to the highway (road pavement, drainage, etc) Removal of debris from trash screens. Defects to the dam/embankment

Settlement beyond acceptablelimits for dam but acceptable for highway embankment – no cause identified

Settlement beyond acceptable limits for dam but acceptable for highway embankment – caused by highways (e.g drainage leak)

Settlement beyond acceptable limits for dam and highway embankment – no cause identified