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The East Central European Party Systems 1 Th e Ea st C en tr a l E u r o pe a n Pa r t y Sy stem s T h e De v e l o p m e n t o f C o m pe t it iv e P o l it ic s in a C o m pa r a t iv e P o l it ic s P e r spe c t iv e S u b m it t e d b y N ik o l a i S it t e r T h e L o n d o n S c h o o l o f E c o n o m ic s a n d P o l it ic a l S c ie n c e F o r P h .D. De g r e e 1999 UMI Number: U615807 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U615807 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 T M&StS F 752 2. 2 Ab st r a c t The thesis approaches the development, stability and change of party systems in Hungary, Poland and the Czech and Slovak Republics since the collapse of communism from a comparative politics perspective, thereby raising questions about whether party systems have developed, about the peculiarity of these systems and about the factors that drive party system development and change. The analysis of East Central European party systems therefore invites questions about party systems theory in general, hypothesising that parties are becoming increasingly independent of extra-parliamentary constraints. Applied to East Central Europe, this suggests that party system development has been driven by the parties, principally their strategic choices under conditions of economic and political transition. Nationalism provides a further dimension without which post-communist party competition and coalition building cannot be fully understood. The comparative politics analysis of the four East Central European party systems warrants a three-level set of conclusions. First, the Lipset- Rokkan cleavage model is re-worked, with particular focus on the definition and structure of cleavages (including non-structural cleavages) and the context in which they are translated in to political competition; the newly negotiated rules of the game; the comparatively weak links between voters and parties; the organisation and structure of the parties; and most significantly, party strategy as the key driver behind party system development, stability and change. Second, come the 1997/98 series of elections, the four party systems had developed from anarchic competition to party systems characterised by a degree of stability and predictability in terms of party competition and co-operation. Third, and finally, the project concludes that party system change and stability is driven primarily by the political parties. If comparative West European politics is influencing analyses of East Central European party systems, the East Central European experience has prompted re-working of comparative party system theory. And the parties have stolen the show. T a b l e o f C o n t e n t s: L is t o f T a b l e s a n d f ig u r e s A cknowledgements Main Parties, E lections and Government C oalitions at a G lance, East C entral Europe 1989-1999 A bbreviations a n d A c r o n y m s C h a p t e r O n e Introduction C h a p t e r T w o : A p p r o a c h e s t o P o s t -C o m m u n is t P o l it ic s in E a st C e n t r a l E u r o p e C h a p t e r T h r e e P a r t y S y s t e m s : D e v e l o p m e n t , S t a b il it y a n d C h a n g e C h a p t e r F o u r D e m o c r a c y D o m in a n t o r D o m in a n t D e m o c r a c y ? T h e L e g a c y o f P o l it ic a l C o m p e t it io n in In t e r -W a r E a st C e n t r a l E u r o p e in a C o m p a r a t iv e C o n t e x t C h a p t e r f iv e V o t e r s a n d E l e c t io n s : T h e A n t i-I n c u m b e n c y B ia s in E a st C e n t r a l E u r o p e C h a p t e r S ix D o e s P a r t y O rganisation M a t t e r ? C h a p t e r S e v e n C l e a v a g e s a n d P o s t -C o m m u n ist P a r t y A l ig n m e n t s C h a p t e r E ig h t Beyond the Anarchic Party System: The East C entral European Party Systems 1989-1998 C h a p t e r N in e C o n c l u s io n B ibliography 4 T a b l e s a n d F ig u r e s [Including description, where appropriate] Table 2.1 Approaches to analysis of post-communist politics in East Central Europe 45 Table 3.1 Lipset & Rokkan’s eight-fold typology 82 Table 3.2 Luebbert’s political alliances, party competition and inter-war regimes 83 Table 3.3 A possible post-communist East Central European eight-fold typology 85 Figure 3.1 [Functionally derived cleavages, Lipset & Rokkan] 90 Table 5.1 Votes for parties that failed to gain representation in parliament 174 Figure 5.1 GDP growth in % 1990 - 1997 177 Figure 5.2 Inflation in % 1990 - 1997 177 Figure 5.3 Unemployment in % 1990 - 1998 178 Figure 5.4 Average monthly wages in US $ 1990 - 1998 178 Table 5.2 Elections in Eastern Europe and the Baltic States (excluding Yugoslavia) 1989-98. 183 Figure 5.5 Coalition performance against economic performance 1 188 Figure 5.6 Coalition performance against economic performance 2 188 Table 5.3 Electoral Volatility 189 Table 5.4 Party identification in percent 190 Appendix: A note on calculations and electoral volatility 194-195 Table 6.1 [Four types of parties based on Panebianco] 203 Figure 6.1 [Party Structures] 212 Table 6.2 Total party membership as% of electorate 214 Figure 6.2 The FKgP [Party Structure] 220 Figure 7.1 [Political ideologies, 19th and 20th Century] 236 Figure 7.2 [Political ideologies, post-communism] 237 Figure 7.3 [Political ideologies and voters, post-communism] 240 Figure 7.4 [Party families, post-communism] 241 Figure 7.5 [Party families, post-communism, single dimension] 242 Figure 7.6 [Party families, post-communism, including nationalism] 249 Table 7.1 Comparative Party Alignments 270 Figure 8.1 [‘City block metric’, coalition theory] 275 Figure 8.2 [Minimal connected winning coalitions] 278 Figure 8.3 [Coalitions, Winset theory and strong parties] 281 Table 8.1 Cabinet durability in East Central Europe 285 Table 8.2 Coalition Theories Tested on East Central Europe 287 Figure 8.4 Polish Sejm 1992/93 292 5 A cknowledgements In the course of researching and writing this thesis I have benefited from the advice and support of a number of scholars of comparative politics, experts on both Western and East Central Europe. I would like to thank my supervisors at the London School of Economics and Political Science, Chris Binns, Dominic C. B. Lieven, George Schopflin and Jonathan Aves, for invaluable support. Patrick Dunleavy, Ketil Bjugan, Fredrik Holm, Bill Kissane, John Madely and Gordon Smith have generously provided very helpful and much appreciated advice and comments on the theoretical and comparative aspects of the thesis. Finally, I want to thank Dawn Thompson and the rest of the staff at the British Library of Political and Economic Science. 6 M a in P a r t ie s , E l e c t io n s a n d G o v e r n m e n t C o a l it io n s a t a G l a n c e , E a st C entral Europe 1989-1999 Governing parties in bold Non-coalition parties that support the government underlined “A:B” indicates party A becoming party B; “A:B,C” indicates party A becoming parties B and C POLAND 1989 Election 1991 Election 1991-1993 1993 Election 1997 Election National Solidarity: PC PC BBWR AWS right PC, ZChN ZChN ZChN KPN KPN KPN KPN RdR ROP Liberal Solidarity: UD UD UD (+ KLD + UW right ROAD KLD KLD PPPP): UW PPPP PPPP Formerly SLD SLD SLD SLD SLD communist PSL PSL PSL PSL PSL Other Solidarity: Solidarity Solidarity Polish UP, PSL-PL UP UP UP parties PSL-PL PL H u n g a r y 1989/1990 1990 Election 1992-1994 1994 Election 1998 Election National MDF MDF MDF MDF MDF right MIEP MIEP MIEP KNDP KNDP KNDP KNDP FKgP FKgP FKgP (split) FKgP FKgP Liberal Fidesz Fidesz Fidesz Fidesz Fidesz SzDSz SzDSz SzDSz SzDSz SzDSz Reform MSzP MSzP MSzP MSzP MSzP communist C z e c h 1989/1990 1990 Election 1992 1996 Election 1998 1998 R e p u b l ic Election Election Liberal OF OF: ODS, ODS + KDS ODS ODS ODS right KDS, ODA, KDU-CSL KDU-CSL KDU-CSL KDU-CSL OH ODA ODA KDU-CSL US US Soc Dem CSSD CSSD CSSD CSSD CSSD CSSD Ex- KSC KSCM LB KSCM KSCM KSCM communist Other HSD-SMS HSD-SMS parties LSU SPR-RSC SPR-RSC SPR-RSC SPR-RSC S l o v a k ia 1989/1990 1990 1992 1992 1994 1994 1998 Election Election Election Election Right VPN VPN HzDS HzDS HzDS HzDS HzDS DEUS DU (+++?) ADSR SOP NDS-NA Liberal KDH KDH KDH KDH KDH KDH SDK right DS DS (KDH + DU + DS) Reform KSC KSC SDL SDL SDL SV SDL communist Other SNS SNS SNS SNS SNS SNS SNS parties ZRS Hungarians MK MK MK MK MK MK SMK 7 A bbreviations a n d A c r o n y m s AC Milan Milan Football Club, Italy ADSR Alliance of Democrats (Aliancia demokratov), Slovakia, split from HzDS, joined DU AN National Alliance (Alleanza Nazionale), Italy, formerly MSI AWS Solidarity Electoral Action (Akcja Wyborcza Solidamosc), Poland BBWR Anti-party Bloc for Reform (Bezpartyjny Blok Wspierania Reform), Poland, Pilsudiski’s Nonpartisan Bloc for Cooperation with the Government (Bezpartyjny Blok Wspolpracy z Rzadem) bore the same abbreviation in inter-war Poland BRD Federal Republic of Germany C Centre Party (Centrepartiet), Sweden CDU Christian Democratic Union (Christlich-Demokratische Union), Germany CMWC Connected minimal winning coalitions CSCE Conference on
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