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Party Competition in Europe Struggle Over Dimensionality: Party Competition in Europe Jan Rovny A dissertation submitted to the faculty of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Political Science. Chapel Hill 2011 Approved by: Gary Marks Liesbet Hooghe John D. Stephens James A. Stimson Milada Anna Vachudová Georg Vanberg © 2011 Jan Rovny ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ii Abstract JAN ROVNY: Struggle Over Dimensionality: Party Competition in Europe. (Under the direction of Gary Marks) This work studies political issues and political competition. Political issues -- contestable concerns within the public sphere -- are multiple and infinitesimal, as people understand them in different contexts and at different levels. To become comprehensible and debatable political demands, individual preferences must be simplified into issue bundles or `issue dimensions'. The key actors in this process are political parties that use strategic calculus to join disparate political preferences into ideological platforms. This dissertation examines the considerations and constraints that figure in this partisan calculus. The dynamic that arises is one in which politics is not so much a contest over positioning on issues, as conceived by classical spatial theory, but rather a competition over the content and structure of these issues. Politics is a struggle over the dimensional composition of political issues. iii To my Affectionate iv Acknowledgements Rather than closure, a completed dissertation presents a true beginning. I would like to thank Gary Marks and Liesbet Hooghe for making this beginning both intellectually fascinating and humanly warm. I would like to thank all of my committee members: John D. Stephens, James A. Stimson, Milada Anna Vachudová and Georg Vanberg for stimulating discussions and invaluable comments. Additionally, I would like to thank George Rabinowitz and Herbert Kitschelt for their time and suggestions, and Bernhard Wessels for access to the library at the Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB). My gratitude also belongs to the innumerable friends, colleagues, interviewees, discussants and reviewers who have shaped my understanding of the subject. Among these, particular thanks go to Russell Bither-Terry for his technical assistance and to Martin Babic for his support. I would also like to thank the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada for their generous doctoral fellowship (752- 2005-0729), and the Center of European Studies at UNC Chapel Hill for their support throughout my doctoral research. None of this would have been possible without my parents, Lenka Rovná and Jan Komrs, and my family which has raised me to value knowledge, as well as social responsibility. My final thanks are reserved for my best friend, my stabilizing counterbalance and my most devoted supporter, Allison Rovny -- my companion on the journey which just commenced. v Table of Contents List of Tables............................................................................................................................... viii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... ix Introduction....................................................................................................................... 1 Who Emphasizes and Who Blurs? .................................................................................. 5 Introduction ................................................................................................................................5 Party Strategies in Multidimensional Context ........................................................................7 Who Emphasizes and Who Blurs? .........................................................................................11 Data and Measurement............................................................................................................17 Analysis and Results.................................................................................................................19 Conclusion.................................................................................................................................28 Where Do Radical Right Parties Stand? ...................................................................... 31 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................31 Where Do Radical Right Parties Stand?................................................................................32 Dimensional Approach.............................................................................................................37 Data and Operationalization ...................................................................................................43 Analyses and Results................................................................................................................45 Conclusion.................................................................................................................................67 The Westernization of Political Competition in Eastern Europe............................... 70 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................70 vi Political Competition in Eastern Europe ...............................................................................71 Party Competition Change in Eastern Europe......................................................................74 Explaining Competition Structure in Eastern Europe .........................................................80 Analyzing Competition Change in Eastern Europe..............................................................91 Discussion..................................................................................................................................95 Conclusion...............................................................................................................................104 Appendix........................................................................................................................ 106 Bibliography .................................................................................................................. 110 vii List of Tables Table 1 Effects of Position on Blurring and Salience....................................................... 24 Table 2 Variance Ratio Tests of Voter Positions.............................................................. 47 Table 3 Predicting Voter and Expert Placement Standard Deviations ............................. 59 Table 4 Party Position Change Over Time ....................................................................... 62 Table 5 Party Competition Change in Eastern Europe ..................................................... 75 Table 6 The Structure of the Socio-Cultural Dimension in Eastern Europe..................... 84 Table 7 Historical Experiences in Eastern Europe ........................................................... 90 Table 8 Predicting Competition Slope in Eastern Europe ................................................ 94 Table 9 Dimensional Structure of Used Datasets ........................................................... 106 Table 10 Multinomial Logit Analysis of Vote Choice ................................................... 107 Table 11 List of Party Types........................................................................................... 108 viii List of Figures Figure 1 Issue Salience ..................................................................................................... 20 Figure 2 Position Blurring ................................................................................................ 21 Figure 3 Effects of Position on Blurring and Salience ..................................................... 25 Figure 4 Issue Salience by Party Type.............................................................................. 50 Figure 5 Issue Salience in the Post-War Period................................................................ 52 Figure 6 Economic Positioning of Radical Right Parties ................................................. 55 Figure 7 Non-Economic Positioning of Radical Right Parties ......................................... 56 Figure 8 Vote Choice for Different Party Types .............................................................. 66 Figure 9 Unrotated Political Space in Eastern Europe 2002-2006 ................................... 76 Figure 10 Rotated Political Space in Eastern Europe 2002-2006..................................... 77 Figure 11 Political Space in Four Balkan Countries......................................................... 79 Figure 12 Freedom and Democracy as Share of Social Issues ......................................... 82 Figure 13 Four Patterns of Eastern European Party Competition................................... 103 ix Introduction In order to study the laws of history we must … turn to the homogeneous, infinitesimal elements that move the masses to action. Leo Tolstoy1 This work studies political issues and political competition. Political issues -- contestable concerns within the public sphere -- are multiple and infinitesimal, as people understand them in different contexts and at different levels. To become
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