GICS - Materials

Newcrest Mining Limited ASX Code: NCM Price: $22.82 12 Mth Target Price: $27.00 Rating: Neutral

Business Summary Snapshot Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM) is in exploration, mine development, mine Date 4 October 2021 operations and the sale of gold and gold/copper concentrate. Gold producer Market Cap. $18,666m Shares on issue 818.0m with its portfolio located in Australia, the Pacific region, Asia and Africa. 12 Month High $32.44 12 Month Low $21.85 Latest Research Rating FY21 record NPAT but FY22 guidance falls below 2.0Moz; downgrade to Rating Neutral Neutral 12 Mth Target Price $27.00 Capital Gain 19.3% While FY21 was a year of records, FY22 guidance indicates a softer year Gross Yield 2.5% ahead. Implied Total Return 21.7% Record Cadia copper prodn and high gold/copper prices resulted in record Investment Fundamentals underlying NPAT US$1.16bn, up 55% YoY. FY22 group prodn guidance FYE 30 Jun 2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F falls below 2.0Moz with Lihir below expectations. We reduce our TP to $27/sh on the back of softer FY22/23, and downgrade to Neutral on Profit $m 1,560.0 903.0 948.0 1,434.0 valuation, while looking ahead for growth project news flow. Profit (norm)* $m 1,560.0 903.0 948.0 1,434.0 For more information see research 23 Aug 2021. EPS* ¢ 191.0 110.0 116.0 175.0 EPS Growth % 32.6 -42.4 5.4 50.9 P/E* x 11.9 20.6 19.5 12.9 P/E Relative % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

DPS ¢ 74.0 2.0 39.0 38.0 Yield % 3.3 0.1 1.7 1.7 Franking % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 * Adjusted for goodwill and unusual items Source: Based on Citi estimates Share Price Chart

Total Return on $10,000 Investment

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Profit & Loss ($M) Cash Flow ($M) 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A Sales Revenue 4,520 4,819 5,336 5,715 6,087 Receipts from Customers 4,562 ------Total Revenue ex. Int. 4,520 5,043 5,397 5,809 6,409 Funds from Operations 2,107 ------EBITDA 1,845 1,978 2,381 2,777 3,260 Net Operating Cashflow 1,907 1,940 2,120 2,143 3,062 Depreciation & Amort. -896 -1,070 -1,064 -938 -895 Capex -715 -607 -439 -395 -1,403 Goodwill Amortisation ------Acquisitions & Investments -82 -372 -40 -1,240 -28 EBIT 949 908 1,318 1,839 2,365 Sale of Invest. & Subsid. -35 65 -- 29 -- Net Interest -172 -154 -134 -249 -136 Net Investing Cashflow -946 -1,127 -974 -3,048 -1,594 Profit Before Tax 777 754 1,184 1,590 2,229 Proceeds from Issues ------1,123 -- Income Tax -235 -160 -388 -492 -670 Dividends Paid -144 -175 -187 -258 -319 Outside Equity Int. -14 -9 4 17 -- Net Financing Cashflow -390 -189 -224 675 -911 Profit after Tax 528 584 800 1,115 1,559 Net Increase Cash 571 624 923 -230 557 Significant Items after Tax -127 -311 -- -172 -11 Cash at Beginning 69 666 1,359 2,331 1,930 Reported Profit after Tax 400 273 800 943 1,548 Exchange Rate Adjust. ------13 4 Preferred Dividends ------Cash at End 640 1,289 2,281 2,114 2,491

Ratios and Substantial Shareholders Balance Sheet ($M) 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A Profitability Ratios Cash & Equivalent 640 1,289 2,281 2,114 2,491 EBITDA Margin % 40.81 41.04 44.63 48.60 53.56 Receivables 114 104 192 370 286 EBIT Margin % 21.00 18.84 24.69 32.18 38.85 Inventories 723 750 821 800 748 Net Profit Margin % 11.68 12.13 14.99 19.51 25.61 Other Current Assets 147 119 101 172 246 Return on Equity % 5.45 5.84 7.41 8.88 11.58 Current Assets 1,624 2,262 3,397 3,456 3,771 Return on Assets % 4.35 4.53 5.48 6.78 8.58 Prop. Plant & Equipment 11,037 10,537 10,645 12,225 12,376 Intangibles 46 57 47 60 68 Debt/Safety Ratios Other Non-Current Assets 147 119 101 246 345 Net Debt/Equity % 19.90 13.94 5.18 7.24 -1.74 Non-Current Assets 13,435 13,270 13,482 15,839 15,801 Interest Cover x 5.53 5.89 9.83 7.38 17.43 Total Assets 15,059 15,532 16,879 19,295 19,572 Interest Bearing Debt 2,588 2,697 2,845 3,023 2,257 Top 5 Substantial Shareholders Other Liabilities 2,676 2,740 3,153 3,721 3,848 Allan Gray Australia Pty Ltd 9.9% Total Liabilities 5,264 5,436 5,997 6,745 6,105 BlackRock Group 9.1% Net Assets 9,795 10,096 10,881 12,550 13,466 Van Eck Associates Corporation 5.0% Share Capital 15,155 15,771 16,599 18,072 16,519 The Vanguard Group,Inc 5.0% Reserves -69 -262 -607 -903 -31 Retained Earnings -5,400 -5,503 -5,202 -4,619 -3,022 Outside Equity Int. 109 91 91 -- -- Total Shareholders Equity 9,795 10,096 10,881 12,550 13,466

Current Analyst Recommendations * Principals & Directors Principals Company Secretary Mrs Claire Hannon Ms Maria Sanz Perez Directors Mr Sandeep Biswas(Chief Executive Officer,Managing Director) Mr Philip Stanley Aiken(Non-Executive Director) Mr Peter William Tomsett(Non-Executive Director) Mr Peter Algernon Franc Hay(Non-Executive Director,Non-Executive Chairman) Ms Jane Frances McAloon(Non-Executive Director) Ms Vickki Anne McFadden(Non-Executive Director) Mr Gerard Bond(Chief Financial Officer,Finance Director) Dr Roger John Higgins(Non-Executive Director) Ms Sally-Anne Georgina Layman(Non-Executive Director)

* Source: Morningstar. This chart shows the spread of recommendations from those broker analyst's in Australia with research coverage of this stock.

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