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St Barbara Mining (SBM.AX) – Good Company but Fully Priced

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St Barbara Mining (SBM.AX) – Good Company but Fully Priced 24 March 2016 Asia Pacific/Australia Equity Research Precious Metals St Barbara Mining (SBM.AX / SBM AU) Rating NEUTRAL Price (23-Mar,A$) 2.19 INITIATION Target Price (A$) 2.15 Target price ESG risk (%) 0.0 Market cap (A$mn) 1,084.3 Good company but fully priced Yr avg. mthly trading (A$mn) 78.1 Projected return: ■ St Barbara operates the high grade, high margin Gwalia underground Capital gain (%) -1.8 mine (Leonora, WA) and the historically marginal but now cash generative Dividend yield (net %) 0.0 open pit mine, Simberi (PNG). A significant turnaround in production, Total return (%) -1.8 cash flow and outlook has been delivered under the leadership of MD *Stock ratings are relative to the relevant country benchmark. ¹Target price is for 12 months. Bob Vassie. Value has been created through: simple operational [V] = Stock Considered Volatile (see Disclosure Appendix) improvements at Gwalia; achievement of design capacity utilisation at Research Analysts Simberi; divestment of the loss making Gold Ridge (Solomons) operation and Michael Slifirski 61 3 9280 1845 debt reduction from strong cash flow. [email protected] ■ With organic growth absent, continued operational improvements and Nick Herbert, CFA mine life extension will be key value drivers. We expect existing 61 3 9280 1754 [email protected] operations will continue to generate strong free cash for remaining mine life, and assume conceptual implementation of an alternative haulage system at Gwalia will facilitate production growth and extend mine life by conceptually adding 1.2Moz to reserves at depth. ■ Aside from alternative haulage, growth options appear to be early stage concepts and exploration success dependent. A sulphide project at Simberi which could extend mine life by 7+ years appears viable, but a default use of capital (absent other opportunities) rather than a compelling investment. Exploration of near mine prospects is immature. Demonstrated management capability is not yet matched with opportunity suggesting an acquisition strategy may be pursued. ■ Our $2.15/share target price assumes capital investment in an alternative haulage system at Gwalia to utilise mill capacity and extend mining to 2,000m depth, conceptually adding ~1.2Moz to reserves. We include value for Simberi sulphide but expect this to be realised through divestment as a ready development opportunity. Risks include gold price and exchange rate risk. Total return forecast in perspective Financial and valuation metrics 143% Year 6/15A 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E 93% Revenue (A$ mn) 550 602 655 668 EBITDA (A$ mn) 149 262 273 284 43% EBIT (A$ mn) 64 183 194 206 - 7% Net Income (Adj.) (A$ mn) 21 112 124 139 - 57% EPS (Adj.) (Ac) 4.30 22.64 25.04 28.07 - 107% Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. 12mth 52 Week Hi- *Target EPS growth (%) n.m 426.2 10.6 12.1 Volatility Lo return Consensus EPS (Ac) 8.40 27.60 37.10 41.00 Share Price CS Target Rtn Mean P/E (x) 50.9 9.7 8.7 7.8 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, IBES, Credit Dividends (Ac) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Suisse estimates Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Performance 1M 3M 12M Price/Book (x) 7.7 4.6 3.0 2.2 Absolute (%) 26.63 52.86 872.7 Net debt/EBITDA (x) 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.2 Relative (%) 23.36 54.11 886.6 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 24 March 2016 St Barbara Mining (SBM.AX / SBM AU) Price (23 Mar 2016): A$2.19; Rating: NEUTRAL; Target Price: A$2.15 Income Statement 6/15A 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Earnings 6/15A 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Revenue 550 602 655 668 Equiv. FPO (period avg) 492 495 495 495 EBITDA 149 262 273 284 (mn)EPS (CS adj.) (c) 4.3 22.6 25.0 28.1 Depr. & Amort. (85) (79) (79) (77) EPS growth (%) 108.4 426.2 10.6 12.1 EBIT 64 183 194 206 DPS (c) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Associates - - - - Dividend Payout (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net interest exp. (42) (32) (17) (8) Free CFPS (c) 18.6 37.6 38.2 40.3 Other 0 0 0 0 Valuation 6/15A 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Profit before tax 22 150 177 199 P/E (CS) (x) 50.9 9.7 8.7 7.8 Income tax (1) (38) (53) (60) PEG (x) 0.5 0.0 0.8 0.6 Profit after tax 21 112 124 139 EV/EBIT (x) 21.2 6.7 5.8 5.5 Minorities -0 -0 -0 -0 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.1 4.7 4.1 4.0 Preferred dividends - - - - Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Associates & Other 0 0 0 0 FCF Yield (%) 8.5 17.2 17.4 18.4 Normalised NPAT 21 112 124 139 Price to book (x) 7.7 4.6 3.0 2.2 Unusual item after tax 19 0 0 0 Net profit (Reported) 40 112 124 139 Returns 6/15A 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Return on Equity (%) 15.1 47.3 34.3 27.8 Balance Sheet 6/15A 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Profit Margin (%) 3.8 18.6 18.9 20.8 Cash & equivalents 90 120 70 33 Asset Turnover (x) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 Inventories 52 49 60 60 Equity Multiplier (x) 4.2 2.4 1.6 1.4 Receivables 10 11 13 13 Return on Assets (%) 3.6 19.3 21.4 20.0 Other current assets 13 12 12 12 Return on Invested Cap. 14.8 36.7 33.8 26.2 Current assets 152 180 143 107 Gearing(%) 6/15A 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E Property, plant & equip. 382 351 386 536 Intangibles 0 0 0 0 ND/ND+E (%) 65.8 36.0 10.2 9.3 Other non-current assets 59 48 50 51 Net Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.2 Non-current assets 441 400 436 588 Int Cover (EBITDA) (x) 3.6 8.2 16.0 36.5 Total assets 593 579 579 694 Int Cover (EBIT) (x) 1.5 5.7 11.4 26.6 Payables 43 34 40 40 Capex to Sales (%) 9.2 7.7 17.4 34.0 Interest bearing debt 347 242 99 72 Capex to Depr (%) 59.6 58.7 144.1 294.3 Other liabilities 63 66 79 81 Total liabilities 452 342 218 194 MSCI IVA Rating Net assets 140 237 361 500 TP ESG Risk (%): 0.00 Ordinary equity 140 237 361 500 7 C TP Risk Comment: SBM's key asset (Gwalia) is Minority interests 0 0 0 0 C L located in Australia which is a low risk and well Preferred capital - - - - 6 understood mining jurisdiction. Their secondary L G asset (Simberi) is located in PNG which is Total shareholder funds 140 237 361 500 5 C Net Debt 270 133 41 51 G exposed to greater geopolitical and associated 4 risks. Supported by track record, we view SBM Cash Flow 6/15A 6/16E 6/17E 6/18E G L as being well managed from an ESG EBIT 64 183 194 206 3 perspective and accordingly do not factor any ESG valuation impact into our TP. Net Interest (28) (29) (17) (7) 2 Depr & Amort 85 79 79 77 MSCI IVA Risk: Positive 1 MSCI IVA Risk Comment: SBM is not rated by Tax Paid 0 0 (40) (58) MSCI. Change in Working capital (33) (6) (8) (0) 0 Other cash and non-cash items 25 (23) (1) (1) Operating cashflow 113 204 206 217 Environment Social Governance Capex (51) (46) (114) (227) Global Local Country Capex - expansionary (29) (29) (97) (210) Capex - Maintenance (22) (18) (18) (18) Share price performance Acquisitions & Invest 0 1 0 0 Asset sale proceeds 0 0 0 0 Other - - - - Investing cashflow (51) (46) (114) (227) Dividends paid 0 0 0 0 Equity raised 0 0 0 0 Net borrowings 0 0 0 0 Other financing cash in/(outflows) (71) (129) (143) (27) Financing cashflow (71) (129) (143) (27) Total cashflow (9) 30 (50) (37) Adjustments 6 2 0 0 Movement in cash/equivalents (3) 32 (50) (37) On 23-Mar-2016 the S&P ASX 200 Index closed at 5142.266 On 23-Mar-2016 the spot exchange rate was A$1.33/US$1 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates St Barbara Mining (SBM.AX / SBM AU) 2 24 March 2016 Table of contents Valuation 4 Investment Thesis 8 SWOT Analysis 13 Gwalia Mine – Leonora Operations, WA 15 Detailed overview 16 Mine history ....................................................................................................................... 16 Project Metrics .................................................................................................................. 16 Mining operations ............................................................................................................. 17 Milling operations ............................................................................................................. 20 Reserve upside ................................................................................................................ 20 Expansion ......................................................................................................................... 23 Simberi, PNG 26 Detailed overview 27 Mine History ...................................................................................................................... 27 Project Metrics .................................................................................................................. 27 Mining operations ............................................................................................................. 28 Milling operations ............................................................................................................. 29 Sulphide Project ............................................................................................................... 30 Exploration ........................................................................................................................ 31 Key risks 33 Financial 34 Board & Management 37 Environmental, Social Governance 38 Valuation 42 NPV scenarios .................................................................................................................
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