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Europe's Supergrid

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Europe's Supergrid PROTECTING EUROPEAN CIVILISATION: EUROPE’S SUPERGRID Eddie O’Connor Marcos Byrne Introduction 1. What Europe will look like in 2050. I. What will our electrical demand be? II. How influential will rooftop solar and storage be? III. What effect will electric vehicles have on this demand? IV. How will the demand be met by renewables? 2. What Resources are available to meet this demand. I. Where will the main sources of generation be located? II. How can we access the areas of great potential? 3. How we can distribute this renewable energy. I. How do we interconnect countries with great wind and/or solar resources with those with weaker renewable resources? II. What are the challenges involved? Hemispheric Temperature Change – Annual Mean Hemispheric Temperature Change - 5-Year Running Mean 1.4 1.2 Northern Hemishpere 5-Year Running Mean 1 Southern Hemisphere 5-Year Running Mean 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 Hemispheric Temperature Change (C) Change Temperature Hemispheric -0.4 -0.6 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 EU 2020 Strategy and the Paris Climate Agreement • 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990 levels). • 20% of EU energy from renewables • This target varies between countries depending on their starting points. • 20% increase in energy efficiency. • The 2020 strategy feeds into future targets such as reducing EU emissions by 40% by 2040. • All EU countries are also part of the Paris Climate Agreement. Source: UNEP What does European demand look like now? EU Electricity Generation by Fuel Type 4,000 3,500 3,335 3,269 3,265 3,237 3,204 3,213 3,244 156 3,159 143 142 130 129 128 131 131 3,000 510 765 702 583 458 497 597 639 Other Fossil 2,500 Gas 473 461 543 531 384 357 Hard Coal 493 496 2,000 Lignite 332 324 322 306 312 347 325 343 Nuclear 1,500 Renewables 857 839 830 877 876 882 917 907 1,000 ElectricityGenerated (TWh) 500 857 900 936 956 977 679 678 768 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: SuperNode Research Source: Eurostat Current State of Renewables in Europe 60% Share of Energy from Renewable Sources in EU28 2004 50% 2019 40% 2020 Target 30% 20% Renewable Share Renewable 10% 0% 20.0% • 2019 data shows that renewables had a 19% share of energy in 15.0% the EU28. 10.0% • 14 Countries have already met and exceeded their 2020 Historical targets. 5.0% 2020 Target Share of Renewables of Share 0.0% • Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Malta, Romania, Slovenia already have a RES over 30%. Source: Eurostat Year Dropping Cost of Wind & Solar Offshore Wind Source: Lazard EU Electricity Demand – Future Trend (Baseline) Electricity Demand (TWh per year) 4800 5000 Residential Transport Services Industry 4100 4000 1820 3450 3250 1530 3000 1440 1150 1480 2000 1250 1010 940 150 130 Power Demand (TWh/year) Power 1000 90 100 1350 980 990 1190 0 2005 2010 2030 2050 Source: SuperNode Research Source: SuperNode Research Future Power Demand - Assumptions The assumptions made for calculating the effect of Solar PV and storage on future power demand are: 1. 25% of residential demand will be met through rooftop solar along with battery storage by 2030, with this increasing to a 50% reduction from rooftop solar and storage by 2050. 2. The service industry will also benefit from a 10% reduction in power demand by 2030, increasing to 20% by 2050. 3. The manufacturing industry can benefit from reducing its power demand by 10% by 2030 and by 20% by 2050. Rooftop Solar – How can these reductions be met? • Meeting the 50% reduction in residential demand would require approximately 128 million homes in Europe to adopt 12m2 of Solar PV. Assumptions made: • 12m2 of Solar PV on each roof. • Panel conversion efficiency of 30%. This assumes that continued development takes the current efficiency from 17% - 18% to 30%. • Solar Radiation (kWh/m2/day) was obtained by taking an average of the solar radiation from Dublin, Berlin, Stockholm, Copenhagen, Seville, Athens, and Naples. • The 20% reduction in demand from the services sector from solar, under the same assumptions as residential, found that approximately 37.5 million premises will require rooftop solar in order to meet this reduction. • 18m2 of Solar PV on each roof. • For the industrial sector, it was assumed that, on average, 30m2 of solar PV could be installed per premises. This means that in order to meet the 20% target, 27.5 million rooftops would be required. • 30m2 of Solar PV on each roof. Future Power Demand – Energy Efficiency Assumptions The assumptions made for calculating the energy efficiency measures would have on future power demand are: • A 10% reduction in demand would be seen by 2030, further increasing to a 20% reduction by 2050 for residential demand. • A 5% reduction in demand from the services sector by 2030, increasing to a 10% reduction in demand by 2050. • Industry demand reducing by 2% by 2030, and by 4% by 2050. EU Space Heating and Cooling Loads • Calculated total EU space heating load is 3,158 TWh/annum, 1,904 TWh/annum is Residential, 758 TWh/annum is Service based, 496 TWh/annum is Industry • Calculated total EU space Cooling load is 540 TWh/annum. • Improvements in insulation, optimised ventilation with heat recovery, increased urbanisation (heat islands) and global warming will lead to a decrease of the load. • Growth of population, dwelling size, and comfort levels will lead to an increase in space heating load. Source: European Commission Electric Vehicles – What effect will they have? • The first key assumption was that car ownership will remain the norm. • The following assumptions were made with regards to performance in 2050: • Average Consumption: 12.67 kWh/100km. • Average Annual Mileage: 15,000 km. • Annual Power Usage per car: 1,900 kWh. • Average Charge Time (240V): 8 hours. • Charging of EV vehicles was mostly performed during the night using smart chargers. Commercial Electric Vehicles – What effect will they have? • The following assumptions were made with regards to performance in 2050: • The timing for the charging of commercial vehicles will be very different to private cars. • Fast charging for buses exist. ABB to install 450kW charger for buses at multiple worldwide locations. Growth of Electric Vehicles BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle PHEV = Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Source: Aurora Energy Research, & TYNDP 2022 Annual Demand From Private EV’s Annual Demand from Private Electric Vehicles 400 302 300 245 200 178 100 91 64 Annual Demand (TWh)Demand Annual 15 - 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Year Source: SuperNode Research Annual Demand From Commercial EV’s Annual Demand from Commercial Goods Electric 1,200 Vehicles 988 1,000 801 800 583 600 400 297 208 Annual Demand (TWh)Demand Annual 200 49 - 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 Year Source: SuperNode Research Importance of when Charging Occurs Smart Scenario Current Scenario • Smart Scenario: • Current Scenario: • 10% status quo charging. • 90% status quo charging. • 90% optimised charging. • 10% optimised charging. Source: Aurora Energy Research Effect of EV charging on Peak Demand - Commercial Electric Vehicles • The introduction of Autonomous HGV’s will usher in an era of 24hr goods transport. • Without regulation, commercial vehicles will massively increase the peak demand. • As with cars, the timing of charging is crucial. • Charging stations could have battery storage which may be charged by PV during the day and from the grid during periods of low demand. • The use of solar PV on commercial vehicles will also alleviate increases in peak demand. Effect of Electrification – Gross Electricity Demand Gross Electricity Demand 9,693 10,000 System Losses 9,000 Indirect Electricity Demand 881 Industry 8,000 1,504 /year) Services 7,000 Transport TWh 5,716 1,837 6,000 Residential 520 5,000 301 3,795 1,776 4,000 3,575 1,535 345 325 3,000 1,417 1,440 1,150 1,383 2,000 940 1,010 387 Electricity Demand ( Demand Electricity 2,278 1,000 90 100 1,589 980 990 - 2005 2010 2030 2050 Source: SuperNode Research Source: SuperNode Research The Chemical Industry – The Forgotten Industry Demand • The Chemical industry has decoupled energy consumption from production resulting in a 56% reduction in energy intensity since 1990. • Analysis of the chemical industry found a maximum potential demand from the industry could reach 11,700 TWh (including fuels). • It is important to note that this demand is based on renewable hydrogen and chemicals production Source: Dechema How Renewables can meet this Demand: Current Trend • In 2015, Renewable Energies accounted 2017 Renewable Energy Generation (TWh) for 77% of new EU generating capacity. 6.5 4.4 196 Hydro • Renewables generated 976.7 TWh of electricity in 2017 (30% of total electricity Onshore Wind demand). Offshore Wind 119.1 294.6 Solar PV • In 2016, 86% of new capacity was from 56.1 Solar CSP renewable energies. Biomass 300.0 Geothermal • As of 2017, there was 428 GW of Renewable capacity installed, including: • 169 GW of Wind. 2017 Renewables Total: 977 TWh • 150 GW of Hydro (excluding pumped storage). • 132 GW of Solar PV. Source: SuperNode Research Source: WindEurope How Renewables can meet this Demand: Future Need • The assumptions made for 2050: 2050 Renewable Energy Generation (TWh) • Offshore has a capacity factor of 60%. 32 307 • By 2050, 54% of total demand will come from Hydro Wind. Onshore Wind • Solar PV has a capacity factor of 30%. 701 Offshore Wind • By 2050, 27% of total demand will come from 2,628 Solar. Solar PV • All other renewable source remain at 2017 1,380 capacities in 2050.
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