Prediction of Top of Descent Location for Idle-Thrust Descents
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Ninth USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar (ATM2011) Prediction of Top of Descent Location for Idle-thrust Descents Laurel Stell Aviation Systems Division NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, CA, USA [email protected] Abstract—To enable arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents enabling continuous descents is being pursued by several re- computed by the flight management system (FMS) in congested search groups. Most of the previous research has focused on airspace, ground automation must accurately predict descent tra- prediction of arrival time at a waypoint. While this helps with jectories. Development and assessment of the trajectory predictor lateral separation, accurate prediction of the vertical profile is and the concept of operations requires models of the prediction also essential to ensure vertical separation from aircraft at dif- error due to various error sources. Polynomial approximations ferent altitudes, including crossing traffic. In fact, error in pre- of the along-track distance of the top of descent (TOD) from the diction of the vertical profile is likely to have more impact than meter fix are given in terms of the inputs to the equations of mo- tion. Polynomials with three different levels of complexity are pre- along-track prediction error on procedures and data exchange sented, with the simplest being linear. These approximations were necessary to enable more fuel-efficient descents in congested obtained by analyzing output from one predictor. While this pre- airspace. Only the TOD location is analyzed in this paper, dictor’s thrust and drag models do not seem to agree well with which is the first step in understanding the entire vertical pro- those used by the FMS, both laboratory and operational data us- file. Once prediction of TOD location is sufficiently accurate, ing commercial FMSs support the conclusion that, for given mod- analysis will be expanded to the rest of the vertical profile. els of thrust and drag, the TOD location is roughly a linear combi- nation of cruise altitude, descent CAS, aircraft weight, wind, and The purpose of this paper is to identify the factors that af- altitude and speed at the meter fix. The laboratory data include fect the TOD location and how they affect it. This is done by 14 descents each in a Boeing 737-700 simulator and a Boeing 777- developing several approximations, with varying accuracy, of 200 simulator, using a test matrix that varied aircraft weight and the distance between TOD and the meter fix. After presenting descent speed. The operational data include approximately 70 de- the background, related literature, and equations of motion in scents each in commercial Boeing 757 and Airbus 319/320 aircraft. Sec. II and Sec. III, this paper presents results from three dif- Keywords – idle-thrust descents; trajectory prediction; top of de- ferent types of analysis. Sec. IV describes analysis of the equa- scent; equations of motion; flight management system tions of motion to obtain polynomial approximations of TOD location. These approximations give insight into how factors affect TOD location. They must, however, be validated with I.I NTRODUCTION FMS data. Use of a laboratory environment makes it possible In congested airspace today, controllers direct aircraft to de- to use a test matrix, which simplifies analyzing and visualizing scend in steps. Since air density, and hence drag, increase as the effects of individual factors. On the other hand, an impor- the aircraft descends, significant reductions in fuel consumption tant concern is the amount of randomness that will occur under and emissions would result if aircraft stayed at cruise altitude operational conditions. This can only be determined by ana- longer and then descended smoothly at idle thrust. The flight lyzing operational data. Therefore, Sec. V presents analysis of management system (FMS) on a large jet can compute the lo- data from both FMS test bench experiments and commercial cation of top of descent (TOD) assuming an idle-thrust descent. operations. To merge aircraft, however, controllers impose level flight seg- ments, which make it easier for them to estimate the relative II.B ACKGROUND speeds of two aircraft given their calibrated airspeeds (CAS). There are many possible operational concepts to increase The ultimate goal of the research described in this paper is to fuel efficiency of descents. A few of these will be described enable more fuel-efficient descents in congested airspace. This here. For example, Klooster, Del Amo, and Manzi [1] proposed requires development of a trajectory predictor as well as its er- assigning each aircraft a controlled time of arrival at either the ror models so that aircraft can be given clearances with a low meter fix or runway threshold. The FMS chose its speed profile probability that a revision will be needed later. and vertical profile to meet that time. Their flight trials had good Due to the potential fuel savings and emissions reductions, compliance with the assigned times, but “controllers frequently asked the crews for the planned airspeeds to enable downstream for the trajectory prediction error. conflict detections.” In congested airspace, controllers would The costs and benefits of a concept that includes a trajectory likely also need information about the vertical profile. predictor will be determined by the error of that predictor — Giving considerably less flexibility to the aircraft, Ren and whether FMS, ground automation, or controller — and how the Clarke [2] used a stochastic technique to determine minimum concept of operations accommodates that error. For example, spacing at a control point, which is roughly the meter fix, and for a given prediction error distribution, increasing the buffer then assigned the same speed profile to all aircraft and used al- around trial trajectories will decrease the probability of a future titude constraints at several points below the meter fix. This revision but also decrease throughput. On the other hand, al- would increase controller situation awareness but might de- lowing a greater probability of a future revision will increase crease the fuel savings. Separation, especially vertically, was workload, which may also decrease throughput. Evaluation of assisted by segregating arrival flows, but the system perfor- the concept with some predictor thus depends critically upon mance ultimately depends upon controllers’ ability to deliver development of error models for that predictor. Papers such aircraft to the control point with the specified separation and as [5–8] have tried to quantify some of the trade-offs in con- then to maintain separation to the runway without excessive re- cepts to enable idle-thrust descents, but none of these included duction of fuel efficiency. a trajectory predictor to help with vertical separation based on the current traffic. Furthermore, many papers that assess con- With a level of flexibility in between these two concepts, cepts to enable fuel-efficient descents focus on the descent be- Coppenbarger et al. [3] are developing the Efficient Descent tween the meter fix and the runway, whereas the research de- Advisor (EDA), a controller decision support tool to determine scribed in this paper focuses on the descent to the meter fix. Of the speed profile and any necessary path stretching to meet published results, Boeing’s Trajectory Analysis and Modeling scheduled times at the meter fix. The tool also does rudimen- Environment (TAME) [9,10] provides the capabilities closest to tary conflict detection and resolution. The concept is intended those required for assessments along the lines described above. for voice-based communications, so it requires only minimal in- It does not, however, model errors in the vertical profile predic- formation exchange between the controllers and the flight crew. tion. Closely related to the previous approach, the Tailored Ar- Fig. 1 shows the error for operational data of the EDA tra- rivals concept [4] assumes a data link capability, which allows jectory predictor. The data will be described further in Sec. V. many more speed and altitude constraints. Some of these con- Over 90% of the meter fix crossing time predictions have abso- straints may be dynamically determined to avoid other traffic. lute error less than 30 sec, which is a common estimate of this The constraints are loaded into the FMS, which then computes accuracy requirement (see [5], for example). The TOD location and flies an optimized descent trajectory to the runway. Suit- prediction error, on the other hand, is much worse than desired, able adaptations of the concept have been used by commercial with fewer than half the predictions having absolute error less flights in the United States, Australia, and the Netherlands. In than 5 nmi. This is a rough estimate of this accuracy require- the United States, full operational capability would require en- ment based on the 1000-ft vertical separation requirement and hancement of the EDA automation tool. For the Netherlands, the likelihood that many aircraft will descend more than 1000 ft the Speed and Route Advisor (SARA) tool [5] is under devel- in 5 nmi after TOD, as indicated by consideration of both a the- opment to provide speed and route advisories to controllers in oretical 3◦ glide slope and the descents used in Fig. 1. The clear order to improve accuracy in meeting a specified time of deliv- need to address this problem motivated the current research fo- ery at the initial approach fix, but its design does not include cus on prediction of TOD location. Possible approaches include any conflict detection and resolution functionality. improving the predictor, modifying procedures, and enhancing Ideally, each aircraft would be able to fly its preferred de- data exchange. Choosing the most cost-effective concept of op- scent trajectory. Except when congestion is very light, how- erations requires understanding the tradeoffs between possible ever, this would lead to conflicts, and using tactical separa- solutions.