EURASIA The Geopolitics of TurkStream and the Complexities of Bulgaria’s Foreign Policy OE Watch Commentary: The January 2020 launching of the TurkStream natural gas dual pipeline (one for the Turkish market and the second to continue overland to SE Europe) not only streamlines the shipment of fuel to regional customers, such as NATO ally Bulgaria, but also has significant geopolitical implications. For Russia, it represents an important step in its continuing efforts to bypass Ukrainian territory in the provision of natural gas for its other European customers. Russia has long sought to bypass Ukrainian territory in this regard, increasing Moscow’s leverage over Kyiv. As the first accompanying article from Bulgarian newspaper Dnevnik notes, not only will Ukraine make far less money from transit fees, but Russia will be able to selectively limit the flow of its natural gas to Ukraine without affecting its other European customers. A geopolitical by-product within this context seems to be a tightening of mutual dependence among
Russia, Turkey, and Bulgaria, as TurkStream’s second, Then-European Council President Donald Tusk and Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, January 2018. overland line will continue from Turkish to Bulgarian Source: EU2018BG Bulgarian Presidency via Wikimedia, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Boyko_Borissov_welcomes_Donald_Tusk_(39632855571).jpg, CC BY 2.0 territory, and then to other SE European customers.
For Bulgaria, a NATO ally and EU member state that still retains pragmatic, if not amicable relations with Moscow, the TurkStream launch highlighted the inherent challenges in balancing western and eastern influences, as noted in the second accompanying reference. While a straightforward desire to receive needed Russian natural gas without having to pay transit fees to Ukraine and Romania may justify this financial decision by Bulgaria and its pro-EU governing coalition, the optics of TurkStream’s January 2020 launch ceremony, however, seemed to hint at more than purely economic deal making: in addition to the expected participation of Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdoğan, the two other national-level European leaders on stage were Bulgarian Prime Minister Borisov and Serbian President Vucic. (Also see: “TurkStream’s Role in Energy Security and Turkish-Russian Relations,” in this issue of OE Watch) End OE Watch Commentary (Sarafian)
“Regarding foreign policy, we Bulgarians have always learned from the Byzantines... in the east we say one thing, in the west we say another…”
“It is a ‘project with no economic sense, but with a large political element.’”
OE Watch | March 2020 20 EURASIA Continued: The Geopolitics of TurkStream and the Complexities of Bulgaria’s Foreign Policy
Source: “Киев оцени на $450 млн. годишно загубите от пускането на ‘Турски поток (Kiev estimates $ 450 million annually from Turkish Stream launch),” Dnevnik, 9 January 2020. https://www.dnevnik.bg/sviat/2020/01/09/4014280_kiev_oceni_na_450_mln_godishno_zagubite_ ot_puskaneto/
“The commissioning of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, which bypasses Ukraine’s transmission system, will bring annual losses of up to $ 450 million to the country… stated Sergey Makogon, head of GTS Operator of Ukraine [Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine LLC – the newly formed company that operates Ukraine’s gas transmission system].” “It is a ‘project with no economic sense, but with a large political element,’ he [Sergey Makogon] added” “ ‘Bulgaria, Turkey and other countries in the region no longer receive gas through Ukraine,’ he [Sergey Makogon] noted”
Source: “Защо България казва едно на Русия, а друго на САЩ (Why Bulgaria says one thing to Russia and the other to the USA),” Dnevnik, 9 January 2020. https://www.dnevnik.bg/analizi/2020/01/09/4014333_zashto_bulgariia_kazva_edno_na_rusiia_a_drugo_na_sasht/
“Regarding foreign policy, we Bulgarians have always learned from the Byzantines... in the east we say one thing, in the west we say another…”
Source: ““Борисов е поканен на среща с Путин и Ердоган в Истанбул за откриването на ‘Турски поток (Borisov invited to meet with Putin and Erdoğan in Istanbul to open Turkish Stream),” Dnevnik, 4 January 2020. https://www.dnevnik.bg/politika/2020/01/04/4012285_ borisov_e_pokanen_na_sreshta_s_putin_i_erdogan_v/
“The Bulgarian Prime Minister has been invited to the launching of TurkStream by President Erdogan [of Turkey].”
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