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Bulgaria Political Briefing: OUTLOOK of the POLITICAL 2020 YEAR for BULGARIA Evgeniy Kandilarov

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Bulgaria Political Briefing: OUTLOOK of the POLITICAL 2020 YEAR for BULGARIA Evgeniy Kandilarov ISSN: 2560-1601 Vol. 25, No. 1 (BG) Jan 2020 Bulgaria political briefing: OUTLOOK OF THE POLITICAL 2020 YEAR FOR BULGARIA Evgeniy Kandilarov 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. +36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01 OUTLOOK OF THE POLITICAL 2020 YEAR FOR BULGARIA One of the main factors that determines the spirit of the political 2020 in Bulgaria is that there are no regular elections during the year. From this point of view most analysts do not anticipate any particular political turmoil in the country during the year. In this sense, it is envisaged that the ruling coalition will remain seemingly stable. This stability does not depend on the actions of the opposition political forces, the largest of which is the Bulgarian Socialist Party. It seems that if the ruling coalition by any chance collapses, it will be for internal reasons, not external ones. Yet at this point it seems that the ruling coalition will remain relatively stable in the coming year. However, the past 2019 has shown that the government does not enjoy mass trust on the part of Bulgarian citizens and it is gradually losing its popularity and positions. This was largely demonstrated by the results of last year's local elections, in which the GERB ruling party lost much of its previous positions in local government. The political stability of the government has also been shaken by criticism it has endured on the part of Brussels. The ruling party GERB is facing criticism from the EU about the lack of any progress in reforming the judiciary and might lose even more votes if the country does not get a green light to join the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM2) in the coming months. The government has set April 30, 2020 as a new target date for joining ERM2, seen as the Eurozone so called “waiting room”. This practically means that the seeming stability of the ruling coalition does not mean a year without political tension. It seems that the level of tensions and clashes between the government and the opposition of the previous year will remain, without threatening the stability of the government. According to all political analyses at this moment there are no any indications about the any possibility for early elections during the year. The key factor that will determine the positions and behavior of the main political forces in the country this year will be the aspiration to hold as many and good starting positions as possible for the regular and most important for the country parliamentary elections to be held in 2021. From this point of view, the new 2020 is defined as a period of electoral calm before the storm. Actually this means that, despite the lack of elections, all political forces will launch an active election campaign that will be fought on all fronts precisely because the end of the term 1 of the Boyko Borisov government is approaching and the parliamentary elections in 2021 are coming soon. For the government, this will be a watershed year that will make clear how successful this governmental term was, and also the year that will remain most fresh impressions in the minds of the voters when they go to vote in 2021. From this point of view, the purpose of the government will be to continue and proceed with the achievements of the set goals in the fields of education, health, social affairs and justice throughout the year. Among them, the implementation of infrastructure projects that are usually most visible to the voters when deciding whom to cast their vote with, will be of major importance. It is no coincidence that at the end of last year, the Prime Minister Boyko Borisov repeatedly emphasized the large-scale infrastructure construction that is to come in 2020. Some of these projects that need to be built are some very important parts of the so called “Hemus” Motorway, as well as the overall construction of the so called “Europe” Motorway, which this year began partially. Despite its few kilometers, its implementation will have a great impact on the public because of the intense traffic passing through it. Other important infrastructure projects are the two vertical roads, connecting Northern Bulgaria with “Hemus” Highway - the Vidin-Botevgrad expressway and the Ruse-Veliko Turnovo expressway. Construction of the third subway line in Sofia will also be completed and a new extension may be launched. The start and at least partial realization of these grand scale infrastructure projects aim to make 2020 a successful year for the Government. In addition to the infrastructure projects, the government has another major task and it is to prevent the emergence of large-scale and prolonged protests that generate public negativism. Another important aim of the government will be to prevent the emergence of new scandals that have caused serious political turmoil last year, most notably in the leading GERB party. As for the political opposition, 2020 will be a year of regrouping and seeking new opportunities to destabilize the Government. The condition of the main opposition force in the face of the Bulgarian Socialist Party is quite difficult and unstable from the view point of its internal political situation. The 2019 BSP election results showed that the victory in the 2017 presidential election was more the merit of a majority vote than a party uprising. Cornelia Ninova's leadership has been called into question by a number of old and influential party members and the party itself is divided into two factions. The 2020 year will be a turning point for the Bulgarian Socialist Party and will depend entirely on internal party processes. This will predetermine the answer to the question of whether the BSP will enter in 2021election year stronger and stable or its 2 decline will continue, which creates the risk that the party may become the third parliamentary political force in Bulgaria. The key issue for the BSP will be the one of leadership. In April 2020, within the party will take place elections for a new leader. According to the BSP statute, "the chairman of the National Council cannot be elected for more than two consecutive full terms" - Cornelia Ninova will end her first term as party leader and has the right to run again. At the same time, Ninova encounters strong internal party opposition, which defines her as an incompetent and weak leader and wants her eliminated. The situation with GERB's opposition in the face of the other right-wing party coalition in the country called “Democratic Bulgaria”, does not suggest a major change in 2020. In numbers, their supporters are not numerous, but at the same time this political force is extremely active, vociferous and aggressive towards the ruling party coalition and its government. This is a serious precondition for joining in various coalition plans in order to cross the 4% barrier to entry in the future parliament. Last but not least, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms should be noted. Their goal in the 2020 is to find possible new future coalition partners for the next parliament in order to avoid a recurrence of the political isolation situation they were facing in 2017. With the scandals surrounding GERB, new political projects have found some room to develop. Although their support is not that significant, three have potential to develop in the coming years and enter the next parliament. Already mentioned “Democratic Bulgaria”, a coalition of three parties that strongly criticise Borissov’s politics, gained enough votes to send one MEP to the European Parliament in May 2019, and won almost half of the mayoral positions in the Sofia districts and several in the bigger cities too in the October local election. The coalition is seen as a potentially significant factor in the next parliament. Another political party that could attract support in the coming months is showman Slavi Trifonov’s “No Such State”, as Bulgarians have a history of backing charismatic individuals. Trifonov could gather support from the large number of Bulgarians who tend to seek a strong leader to follow and have been disappointed in the past. The same recipe as that offered by Trifonov has been used by Borissov himself and, before him, by Simeon Borisov Saxe-Coburg- Gotha, Bulgaria’s last monarch before the communist era who served as prime minister between 2001 and 2005. Now that Borissov’s appeal as a man of the people seems to be fading away, some of his followers are looking around for a new leader with similar qualities and characteristics using the same populist rhetoric. However, while some analysts believe that 3 Trifonov could take around 15% of the vote in the 2021 general election, others consider his moment to enter politics might have passed. Another project that may be able to break the status quo is the pressure group created by Maya Manolova. A former member of the opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and former ombudsman, she narrowly lost the race for Sofia mayor in October 2019. Manolova claims she will not turn her civil project into a political party, but analysts believe she could decide to join the race for the next parliament. At personal level in 2020, an even more intense confrontation is expected between Bulgarian President Rumen Radev and Prime Minister Boyko Borisov. The president slightly becomes a major opposition to the ruling party, taking over the functions of the Bulgarian Socialist Party and their leader Cornelia Ninova. If the BSP does not reform and stabilize its positions this year, Radev will continue to step up his role as an opposition leader in a shadows to fill the vacuum left by the leadership of the Socialist Party.
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