DR DIMITAR BECHEV RUSSIA’S INFLUENCE IN BULGARIA DEFENCE, FOREIGN POLICY AND SECURITY NEW DIRECTION The Foundation for European Reform is a Brussels-based free market, euro-realist think- tank and publisher, established in 2010 under the patronage of Baroness Thatcher. We have satellite offices in London and Warsaw. New Direction - The Foundation for European Reform is registered in Belgium as a non-for-profit organisation (ASBL) and is partly funded by the European Parliament. www.europeanreform.org Registered Office: Rue d’Arlon 40, Brussels 1000, Belgium. Director General: Naweed Khan. The European Parliament and New Direction assume no responsibility for the opinions Follow us @europeanreform expressed in this publication. Sole liability rests with the author. FOREWARD RUSSIA’S his report by New Direction comes in a very However, energy is only one of many ways in which Russia important moment in time, especially in light of interferes in Bulgarian domestic political and economical T recent developments taking place in Ukraine, in life. It has increased its role in the Bulgarian banking INFLUENCE Syria, as well as in different European countries. Using system and real estate market, with most recent purchase its old divide et impera tactics, Russia is challenging the of almost 64000 houses by Russian citizens in Varna and IN BULGARIA unity among EU Member States by taking full advantage Burgas. With regard to (dis)information, Russia exerts a of different factors, including economic links or support firm influence by generously funding Bulgarian media’s - Dr DIMITAR BECHEV from political parties which have especially strong ties with both at local and national level. Moscow (like Ataka in Bulgaria). It is time we look closer at TOMASZ PORĘBA MEP Putin’s game, big part of which is a conflict in the East of One could argue that one of the main pillars of the Ukraine and react before it is too late. common market is the opportunity to invest abroad, is a Member of the which usually has nothing to do with geopolitics. However, European Parliament and If Ukrainian conflict teaches us something, it is that Russia the case presented by Dr. Bechev proves otherwise. For President of New Direction has recently diverted much of its resources and focus instance when talking about Western sanctions against – The Foundation for from mobilising hard power in protecting its interests to Russia, the reluctance of Bulgaria can be explained by European Reform. soft power, including funding media outlets and political its tight economic links with Russia and the pro-Kremlin parties. Ataka party. When part of Bulgarian politicians started a debate on defence and security, which has shown the true The Bulgarian case study presented here by Dr. Dimitar extent of Russian interference in Bulgaria, pro-Kremlin Bechev precisely identifies this new aspect of the Russian parties caused a political crisis. Those are only two of many influence across the EU. His study describes in detail examples of the negative Russian impact on Bulgaria that the ongoing game played by the Russian regime and can be found in this report. neatly sums up the contemporary Russian policy towards its former Near Abroad and its attempts to undermine This new research by New Direction should be used European unity. by policy advisers and politicians to help them better understand Moscow’s way of acting and to reshape our By using gas exports as a political weapon in Bulgaria, policy towards Russia. It is important to understand that Russia has succeeded in undermining European solidarity before being able to compete in the external dimension, by creating political and economic rifts. As a result, Kremlin we must secure our internal fundamentals first. (and Gazprom) benefit from these divisions and retain the status of main supplier, while using Bulgaria to promote reviving of the now aborted South Stream project. INTRODUCTION n spite of previous Western efforts to welcome Russia After all, in terms of methods President Putin is who RUSSIA’S into its club, through economic engagement, a NATO- he is – a former KGB First Chief Directorate (Foreign I Russia Council and membership of the G8, Russia Intelligence) officer who has surrounded himself with under Vladimir Putin seemed to prefer a more traditional former intelligence officers. So-called “active measures” INFLUENCE view of Russia’s interests and strategic posture. He would are a key KGB function - giving currency to false rumours like to weaken, disarm and neutralise those European and conspiracy theories, spreading scare stories, and IN BULGARIA allies previously part of Moscow’s fiefdom, and split covertly supporting groups or individuals whose activities Europe from the United States (hence his encouragement may serve Russian purposes. Russia respects strength. - Dr DIMITAR BECHEV of distinctly European political initiatives and support for But it will exploit weakness for its own purposes. EU defence initiatives separate from Nato). GEOFFREY VAN ORDEN MEP While Russia’s GDP is less than Britain’s and its per capita Through its influence in countries with significant Russian GDP no greater than Poland’s its combination of military is Conservative MEP for minorities or residues of support among the population, and diplomatic strength and economic resources rank the East of England, Vice Moscow seeks to undermine Western resolve and the it once more among the powers. It has its own unique, Chairman of the ECR cohesiveness of Nato. Putin has trumpeted the spurt in historic world view. Under Putin Russia seeks to use Group, former European Russian defence spending as he creates and uses more all the instruments at its disposal to reassert influence Parliament rapporteur for agile, professional and rapidly deployable military forces. internationally and in its near abroad. Bulgaria, and Founding Through limited military operations and by raising the Presidentof New Direction spectre of a wider war, he hopes to intimidate western Bulgaria, for many historic and other reasons, has long – the Foundation for political leaders and public opinion, to strengthen been regarded as the European country most vulnerable European Reform opposition to Western military intervention and force to extended Russian influence. Dimitar Bechev explains recognition of Russia’s renewed importance. the deep and complex connections in Bulgaria used by Russia to promote support and muffle criticism. He Russian adventurism in the Ukraine and its dramatic explores a relationship which is most visible in the energy engagement in Syria are only the most obvious examples sector and its financial entrails and endures in the state of Russian efforts to reassert its influence in countries security and media, in political parties and in defence previously under its direct or indirect control and to industries. Our Bulgarian colleagues Nikolay Barekov MEP reclaim its seat at the top international table. Behind and Angel Dzhambazki MEP provide their own comment. the military power we witness the continued application of other Russian capabilities – the political, financial, economic and other instruments to create constituencies of support and to weaken western affiliation. CONTENTS Historical links - 03 DR DIMITAR BECHEV Visiting Fellow, LSEE-Research on Southeast Europe London School of Economics Dr. Bechev is Director of the European Policy Institute DR DIMITAR BECHEV Attitudes to Russia in Bulgarian politics and society - 07 and teaches international politics at Sofia University. He is currently a visiting fellow at the Center for RUSSIA’S INFLUENCE European Politics, Harvard University. Dr. Bechev was a Senior Policy Fellow and Head of European Council IN BULGARIA on Foreign Relations (ECFR) office in Sofia from 2010 till 2014. He is also affiliated with South East OVERVIEW OF RUSSIAN-BULGARIAN RELATIONS 03 European Studies at Oxford (SEESOX), St. Antony’s Historical links 03 College, Oxford. In 2006-2010, Dr. Bechev was a After the Cold War Research Fellow at Oxford’s European Studies Centre 04 and held a lectureship in International Relations at Economic relations 05 Worcester College, Oxford and a visiting professorship Attitudes to Russia in Bulgarian politics and society 07 The South Stream controversy - 15 at Hitotsubashi University in Tokyo. He is a Region THE NATURE OF RUSSIAN INFLUENCE 09 Head for Central and Eastern Europe at Oxford Use of historical, cultural and religious ties 09 Analytica. Dr. Bechev has published widely on the EU’s enlargement and neighbourhood policies as well as Links with political leaders, parties and businesses 11 the politics and modern history of the Balkans. The issue of Russian gas 13 The South Stream controversy 15 He is the author of The Historical Dictionary of The Belene nuclear station 17 the Republic of Macedonia (2009), Mediterranean Burgas-Alexandroupolis 18 Frontiers: Borders, Conflict and Memory in a Transnational World (2010, co-edited with ECFR VTB’s Bulgarian operation 19 Council Member Kalypso Nicolaidis) and Constructing Real estate market 20 Army and defence Industry - 21 South East Europe: the Politics of Balkan Regional Army and defence industry 21 Cooperation (Palgrave Macmillan, 2011) as well as Influence in the media 22 articles in leading periodicals such as the Journal RUSSIAN INFLUENCE IN ACTION of Common Market Studies and East European 23 Politics and Societies. He holds a D.Phil. (2005) in Bulgaria and the Western sanctions 24 International Relations from the University of Oxford The debate over defence and security policy 25 as well as graduate degrees in International Relations Bulgaria and the Russian reaction to protests in Macedonia 26 and Law from Sofia University. His areas of expertise CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 28 include EU enlargement and Neighbourhood Policy, the politics of wider South East Europe (post- COMMENTS 29 communist Balkans, Greece, Turkey), EU-Russia Angel Dzhambazki MEP 29 CONCLUSION - 28 relations, and Euro-Mediterranean relations. Nikolay Barekov MEP 31 ussian influence has always run strong in Bulgaria - once known, half-jokingly, as R the Soviet Union’s 16th republic.