Georgi Karasimeonov (Ed.) B A R O M E T E R ’s Political Parties Year 14, Issue 4, October - December 2014

Forming a government regularly elected by the National Assembly was an important step in the direction of overcoming the political and parliamentary crisis in this country. Despite the difficulties that the process of composing the government went through, at this stage it will have the necessary parliamentary support for passing the budget for next year and for taking steps for the financial stabilization of the country. These are the urgent measures that the ruling majority has to resolve in the short term.

The election victory and forming a government led by is of paramount importance for the establishment of GERB as a leading political force in the country. Borisov is the first politician to be Prime Minister for a second term since the start of the democratic changes in the country.

The achieved one of their goals – representation in Parliament and par- ticipation in the Executive. At the same time, there are still some serious challenges the Bloc is facing related to the assertion of its . The controversies between DSB and BCMon convening a congress to elect a party leader are about to undermine the frag- ile center right coalition. In its turn, this creates a danger for the integrity of the ruling coalition.

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CONTENTS

1. Political Situation...... 2 2. State and Development of the Party System...... 4 2.1. Trends in the parliamentary represented parties supporting the government ...... 4 2.1.1. GERB...... 4 2.1.2. Reformist Bloc...... 5 2.1.3. Patriotic Front ...... 6 2.1.4. ABV...... 7 2.2. Trends in the parliamentary opposition ...... 7 2.2.1. BSP…...... 7 2.2.2. MRF...... 9 2.2.3. BDC...... 9 2.2.4. “Ataka”...... 10 3. Main Conclusions and Forecasts…...... 11 2 B AROMETE R 4/2014

1. Political Situation gested conditions that were not possible to meet, and not in line with the fact that his The political situation after the elections party had four times higher outcome than was determined mainly by the negotiations the Bloc and that it would bear the main for forming a new government. The pres- political responsibility of the government. ence of 8 political formations in Parliament One of the conditions of RB was to form meant that the winner of the elections a government with a limited term of office GERB was faced with a serious challenge to of two years to carry out the reforms the find a formula for the future government. country needed, and then convene a Grand GERB appointed a team of negotiators – National Assembly to amend the Constitu- , Rumiana Buchvarova and tion. This demand of the reformists was un- Menda Stoyanova, who were tasked with ne- realistic because in order to convene a Grand gotiating with all parliamentary represented National Assembly, a decision was needed of parties for solutions to form a government. the current National Assembly passed with a At the very beginning GERB announced that 2/3 majority. In the given fragmentation of they would not enter into a coalition with the Parliament that would be impossible. MRF and “Ataka”. Borisov stated that MRF GERB countered the idea of forming a would be an appropriate partner in the gov- government with a limited term of office ernment but it would not be possible to have announced in advance because it would that, given the circumstances, because “his delegitimize its work from the very begin- party would never allow it”. In the process of ning. According to GERB the short horizon negotiations Borisov stated several times that would only demotivate the administration the country needed a stable government and from doing their job. that pre-term elections would be detrimental The difficulties in forming a GERB gov- to the state. ernment resulted from the fact that a coali- The talks with the Reformist Bloc (RB) tion of the minority only with RB was not were difficult and full of controversial sig- possible. The MRF stated that they would nals. At the very beginning of the negotia- support such a coalition without taking part tions DSB leader stated that in the government, which was not accept- the RB would not participate in a govern- able either for GERB or for the reformists. ment with Boyko Borisov as Prime Minis- ABV insisted on a wide coalition between ter. This demand blocked the negotiation BSP and GERB, for which Parvanov’s party process between the two formations. Later declared support. Radan Kanev announced that the demand GERB made a proposal to BSP for form- was premature and that the two parties ing a wide coalition. After a tête-a-tête should first talk of policies and a common meeting between the leaders of the two program and then about the people to be parties it was clear that Borisov proposed part of the government. Borisov said that to Mikov the position of speaker of the Na- the most natural thing was for him to be tional Assembly. Mikov refused the proposi- Prime Minister as the leader of the party that tion and said that the voters have given BSP won the elections. In that way it would be the role of the opposition, which the weak clear who carried the political responsibil- election outcome of the left was indicative ity for the government. Borisov stated even of. Furthermore, he said that BSP and GERB that RB were “twisting his arm” and sug- had some significant program differences B AROMETE R 4/2014 3

– mainly in the area of tax legislation and mographic and social policy and Minister of social policies, which might lead to contro- Labor and Social Policy. Kalfin was a mem- versy and instability of government. ber of the from Coali- The Patriotic Front turned out to be the tion for Bulgaria, and prior to that Minister key factor in forming a new government. of Foreign Affairs in the Cabinet of Sergei Attracting the PF was a problem, due to Stanishev (2005-2009). some demands the Front had which GERB In addition to , the Re- deemed unacceptable. Being an EPP mem- formist Bloc is represented in the govern- ber GERB was criticized by its European ment by: , UDF leader, Min- partners, voiced by during his ister of Economy; Peter Moskov from DSB, visit to Bulgaria, who said that a coalition elected Minister of Health; Prof. with the PF was unwarrantable due to dif- – Minister of Education and Science, mem- ferences in principles. ber of the Civil Board of RB; Nikolai Nenchev After nearly three weeks of efforts a gov- – Minister of Defense, Leader of BAPU. ernment was formed. GERB and RB signed The ministers from the caretaker gov- a coalition Agreement and a Common Pro- ernment of Bliznashki and gram, and the PF signed a Declaration of Sup- Hristo Ivanov were also elected from the RB port to the Program without taking part in the quota. They keep their positions of Minister government. ABV also pledged their support of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Justice, for the government after receiving the posi- respectively. tion of a Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. The other ministers are representatives The Coalition Agreement states that of GERB. is Minis- GERB and the Reformist Bloc shall unite ter of Energy. She is former Head of the their efforts to form a pro-European reform- National Financial Inspectorate. The new ist government for a stable development of Ministry of Tourism is led by Nikolina An- Bulgaria and for securing a parliamentary gelkova, who was Minister of Transport majority to support the policies implement- in the caretaker government of Bliznashki. ed by the government. Minister of Finance is , The second government with Boyko Deputy Minister of Finance in the former Borisov as Prime Minister has four Deputy Cabinet of Borisov. Ivailo Moskovski was Prime Ministers. Rumiana Buchvarova from elected Minister of Transport, IT and Com- GERB is Deputy Prime Minister for coalition munications. He had the same position in policies and state administration. She used the former government of GERB. Minister to be Chef de Cabinet of Boyko Borisov of Agriculture is , who is during his first term of office as PM. DPM former Chair of the Agricultural Committee for European Affairs and Cooperation and at the National Assembly. As was expected, Verification Mechanism is the leader of the Minister of Regional Development is again Bulgaria for Citizens Movement Meglena , who had the same position Kuneva (Reformist Bloc). GERB’s Tomislav in the first Cabinet of Borisov. Minister of Donchev was elected Deputy Prime Minis- Environment and Water is Ivelina Vassileva, ter for -funds and Economy. He was Deputy Minister at the same ministry in the Minister in charge of the Euro-funds in the former Cabinet of GERB. first GERB government. Ivaylo Kalfin from was elected Minister of the Interior. He was ABV became Deputy Prime Minister for de- ’s Deputy during the term 4 B AROMETE R 4/2014

of the previous GERB government. Vezh- 2. State and Development di Rashidov is Minister of Culture again. of the Party System is the new Minister of Sport. One of the first tasks of the National 2.1.Trends in the parliamentary Assembly and the new government was to represented parties supporting urgently update the state budget for 2015. the government The reasons were non-performance of the revenue part of the budget and the need to 2.1.1. GERB find funds to resolve the CCB crisis. At the After the elections GERB and their leader end of November the government submitted Boyko Borisov demonstrated a change in the the amendment act. It intends an increase of political tone and behavior. Borisov showed 3 billion BGN in the foreign debt. In addition, that he was capable of seeking dialogue, and State securities will be issued for a further GERB demonstrated a new type of coalition 1.5 billion BGN. According to the Ministry culture during the consultations they had of Finance data, 3 billon BGN is needed for with the other parliamentary represented resolving the crisis of the banking system. In political forces.To a great extent this change this way the budget deficit will reach 3.7% of behavior was due to the inevitable search GDP, which means an excessive deficit pro- for partners for the government. cedure for this country, according to EU reg- Borisov nominated for ministers peo- ulations. The BSP and “Ataka” MPs voted ple known from his first government, like against this update and MRF abstained. Liliana Pavlova, Ivailo Moskovski, Tomislav One of the topics that determined the Donchev, Vladislav Goranov, Vezhdi Rashi- political situation in the second half of the dov, Rumiana Buchvarova, who was Chief year – the crisis with CCB, has finally come of his political cabinet – personalities who to the point of resolution. After having have gathered political and managerial ex- been under special supervision for more perience over the past several years. than 5 months, an auditor’s report was is- In the coming months the major chal- sued that recommended writing off more lenge GERB will be facing will be related than 4.5 billion BGN from the bank’s capi- to finding the right decisions for overcom- tal. This raised the issue yet again about ing the economic crisis. Reforms in sev- the shortcomings of banking supervision eral public sectors are compelling and this of the and the can induce discontent among some of the question about the Governor of the Cen- citizens due the unpopular nature of the tral Bank – Ivan Iskrov - resigning was put former. The challenge for GERB will be to on the agenda again. After the auditor’s re- what extent they will manage to balance port BNB withdrew the license of CCB, and between the interests of the various parties the majority shareholder Tsvetan Vassilev that support the government. appealed before the Supreme Administra- The parliamentary group of GERB com- tive Court. In this way the insolvency pro- prises 84 MPs. After Boyko Borisov was cedure of the bank, which had to be heard elected Prime Minister his position of Chair- at the City Court, was suspended man of the parliamentary group was taken temporarily. Despite that, the guaranteed by Tsvetan Tsvetanov. Tvetanov’s deputies in deposits of up to 100,000 euro will start the parliamentary group are Krasimir Velchev to be paid. and . As expected, B AROMETE R 4/2014 5

Tsetska Tsacheva was elected Speaker of member of the government, the attempt to the National Assembly, and GERB’s Dimiter elect a new Co-Chairman of the parliamen- Glavchev is one of her Deputy Speakers. tary group failed, because the DSB repre- In spite of not being part of the Execu- sentatives blocked the nomination of BCM. tive, Tsvetan Tsvetanov retained his posi- Tension was caused by the election of tion as ‘second-in-command’ in GERB after Deputy Speaker of the Parliament from the Boyko Borisov. Being the Chairman of the quota of the Bloc too. Grozdan Karadzhov parliamentary group he will have ample op- from DSB stated that Nikolai Nenchev was portunities to influence not only the MPs, supported for the position initially, but but the party too. Borisov’s engagements as Meglena Kuneva impeded his election in Prime Minister most likely will result in him favor of Ivan Ivanov. Karadzhov accused withdrawing from the real party work, which Kuneva further that she was coercing the Tsvetanov will mainly be responsible for. Reformist Bloc all the time and, threatening GERB maintained the leadership of key it with a split up, always had it her way. parliamentary committees and allowed the op- Convening the RB Congress to elect the position to appoint chairmen of some of them. Bloc’s Chairman also sparked tension be- Thus, for instance, a representative of BSP be- tween DSB and Kuneva’sparty. The congress came head of the Economic Committee, and was even called off once after Bulgaria for MRF – of the Social Policies Committee. the Citizens Movement blocked it. After was elected Meglena Kuneva stated that there will Deputy Prime Minister, his seat in the Eu- be a congress when everyone believes that ropean Parliament was taken by Andrey the coalition is ready for it. She said further Novakov, who was Vice President of the that currently RB has no executive Board to students’ organization of EPP until recently. draft the rules for the congress. In addition, she believes that it would be counterpro- 2.1.2. Reformist Bloc (RB) ductive to hold a union congress of the Bloc The parliamentary group of the Reformist given the “current high level of distrust to- Bloc comprises 23 MPs. Radan Kanev and wards the parties in it”. Kuneva thinks that Meglena Kuneva were elected Co-chairper- a congress of this kind should be convened sons of the group. Meglena Kuneva became only when the results of the reforms that Deputy Prime Minister of the new govern- RB has committed to in the government are ment. Borislav Velikov from Bulgarian New seen. In her words “the lack of confidence Democracy Party, Korman Ismailov from can be overcome with reforms and work”. People’s Party ‘Freedom and Dignity’ and DSB leader Radan Kanev stated that he Borislav Milanov are Deputy Chairmen of the was in favor of a union congress. He ex- group. Well known political figures among pressed hope that “no one would backslide the Reformist Bloc MPs are the former leader on the congress because it would be a very of UDF Martin Dimitrov, Rumen Hristov, who unreasonable thing to do. It is about time to was presidential candidate from the Blue hold this congress.” Coalition in 2011, and former Mayor of the Tension was also caused by the wish of town of Pleven Nayden Zelenogorski. BCM to do away with the Civil Board of the After becoming part of the Executive, Bloc. Naiden Zelenogorski said that the Civil the tension in the Reformist Bloc remained. Board was a structure created when the So, for instance, after Kuneva was elected union was created to serve as a bridge to 6 B AROMETE R 4/2014

civil society and to participate in formulating missile stations along the Bulgarian-Turkish and making decisions. According to Zeleno- border as counter terrorist measures, teach- gorski that body had already exhausted its ing children compulsorily if they don’t speak role. UDF led by Bozhidar Lukarski also pro- Bulgarian when they start school. claimed abolition of the Civil Board. One of The Patriotic Front is a coalition compris- the reasons for his wish was that the parties ing two main parties – NFSB and VMRO, but of Kuneva and Lukarski felt strongly suspi- there are some smaller formations there too, cious of the Civil Board because of the pub- which makes the relations between them lic support of the majority for Radan Kanev’s quite complex and this was confirmed by the nomination for RB leader. A topical reason developments in the political situation dur- for the discontent of DBG and UDF was also ing the first days of the new government. the position of the Civil Board regarding the After PF signed a declaration of support withdrawal of the nomination of Bozhidar for the government of Borisov, in practical Lukarski for Minister of the Economy. terms they became part of the ruling major- One of the prominent figures of the Civil ity, in spite of not having any representatives Board – Prof. Velislav Minekov, left RB to in the government at the level of ministers. demonstrate his disagreement after RB en- The expectations, however, are that they have tered into a coalition with GERB. representatives in the second tier of the execu- The discontent from the participation in tive. The controversies in the Front became ap- a coalition together with GERB, ABV and parent as early as when the government was the Patriotic Front is also apparent among voted. The Members of Parliament Slavi Binev some circles of RB supporters. All these con- and Velizar Enchev, who had been some of the troversies demonstrate that the future of fiercest critics of Boyko Borisov and his govern- the coalition remains questionable and the ment over the past years, did not support Bor- inner-party squabbling may prevail in the isov’s nomination for Prime Minister. first more serious crisis of the government. The first serious challenge facing the new government majority came after Orhan 2.1.3. Patriotic Front (PF) Ismailov from the People’s Party ‘Freedom The parliamentary group of the Patriotic and Dignity’ was appointed Deputy Minis- Front is the fifth largest group in the Na- ter of Defense. said that tional Assembly and comprises 19 MPs. The he was a ‘representative of a pro-Turkish Leader of the National Front for Salvation party’ and it was unacceptable to be ap- of Bulgaria NFSB and Co-Chairman of PF pointed in that position. Simeonov urged Valeri Simeonov is Chairman of the group. Orhan Ismailov to step down or they would The other Co-Chairman of the Front – Kras- withdraw their support for the government. simir Karakachanov, VMRO leader, became The Patriotic Front was accused by rep- Deputy Speaker of Parliament. resentatives from almost the entire political PF is a typical nationalist and populist spectrum that their behavior was a manifesta- formation, similar to “Ataka”. In his speech tion of ethnic intolerance and that the reason at the opening of the 43rd National Assem- they demanded Ismailov’s resignation was bly Valeri Simeonov mentioned some of that he had a Turkish name. Krasimir Kara- the main goals the Front will attempt to at- kachanov denied the accusations and said tain, for instance: banning the newscasts that the problem was not the name of Orhan in Turkish on the national TV, deploying Ismailov, but the fact that he represented an B AROMETE R 4/2014 7

ethnic party, which he thought People’s Party the country. Parvanov outlined several major ‘Freedom and Dignity’ actually was. According reasons for ABV to be part of the govern- to Karakachanov, the PPFD leader “proudly ment. According to him the first one was poses for pictures with Erdogan, who claims that “Bulgaria should have a new govern- that men and women are not equal”. ment, rather than appoint new elections, as After another representative of the party this would be detrimental and catastrophic”. was appointed regional Governor of Sofia, PF On the other hand, to put it in his words, leaders declared that they are most likely to “Bulgaria needs a proper and stable govern- withdraw their support for the government. ment. In this respect, we stand close to the idea of GERB for a stable government.” 2.1.4. ABV Despite the fact that re- For a new formation like ABV, making it to fused to run for Member of Parliament, with the National Assembly in the first general the explanation that he had been President of elections they took part in is a success. De- the Republic, Georgi Parvanov is not only the spite the fact that the ABV parliamentary leader of ABV, but also the politician who, to group is one of the smallest in the parlia- a great extent, personifies the party. Another ment, comprising 11 MPs, it will have an im- significant figure of the left in ABV – Rumen portant role to play, as it is part of the newly Petkov, did not win a seat as a Member of formed ruling majority. Electing Parliament. Among the more-important and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Labor recognizable public and political figures in and Social Policy, ABV will practically be part ABV are Prof. Borislav Borislavov, Former Presi- of the executive and will bear the political dent of the University of National and World responsibility for one of the most sensitive Economy, former Chief of General Staff of the areas – social policy. For a left wing forma- Bulgarian Armed forces General Miho Mihov, tion like ABV, taking part in the Executive former Minister of Trade and International Eco- together with parties from the right wing is nomic Cooperation in ’s govern- a big challenge in view of its establishment ment (1994-1996) Kiril Tsochev, and recent as a political actor. On the one hand, ABV Mayor of the city of Pernik Rossitsa Yanakieva. is subjected to criticism from BSP for the fact that it had entered into a coalition with 2.2. Trends in the Boyko Borisov, and on the other – their part- Parliamentary Opposition ner from RB will look at the party without confidence because of the firm stance ABV 2.2.1 „BSP - Left Bulgaria“ in support of the Russian energy projects. The parliamentary group of BSP – Left Bul- ABV, however, stated that their participa- garia comprises 39 MPs. Chairman of the tion in the government would help the politi- group will be BSP leader . Angel cal stability this country needed at that mo- Naidenov, Atanas Merdzhanov and Kornelia ment. ABV leader Georgi Parvanov said that Ninova were elected his deputies, secretary the easier and more convenient way for the of the group is Zhelio Boychev. The MP with party to be established as a new formation the longest standing experience among BSP was to stay in opposition, but the nationally MPs – Yanaki Stoilov, was elected Deputy responsible approach required taking on the Speaker of the National Assembly. real political responsibility by sharing the bur- The severe loss of BSP in the elections den of carrying out the necessary reforms in gave reason for rethinking the party policy 8 B AROMETE R 4/2014

on the part of its leadership and looking for voiced the opinion that “this troika has been ways out of the crisis it is currently in. Im- deciding who will make progress and who mediately after the elections BSP declared will be crushed in the party lines for years”. that they would be a constructive opposition He said further that between “140 and 180 to GERB, because that was the role the vot- of the delegates in each congress are paid ers chose to give to the party. Nonetheless, apparatus – people who receive their salary the party participated in the talks initiated by from the party headquarters.” According GERB for forming a new government. There to Dobrev the last elections have demon- were voices in BSP that insisted that the strated the lack of ideas of the party and its party concede to forming a wide coalition, declining organizational potential. To put it proposed by GERB. Angel Naidenov said that in his words, “in these elections everything BSP “should express readiness to participate collapsed and we have no ideas, no cause. in a wide coalition government”. Accord- The myth of the organizational potential of ing to him, he was not the only one in the the party collapsed. We are talking about a party who believes that BSP should be part drowned and lost generation under the lead- of the government. ABV also urged their for- ership of these people”. Dobrev stated that mer fellow party members to participate in he would fight for a change in the party. a wide coalition, which they would support. Despite expectations for radical change in According to party activists, the reasons BSP Mihail Mikov parted with only three of for BSP to remain in opposition were due to the members of the Executive Bureau and cut the weak election results of the party. If the the composition of the top party leadership party had 60-70 MPs, then forming a wide from 21 to 18 people. This happened after a coalition would be possible, because it would decision of the National Council of the party. be a union between two parties of relatively The people dismissed from the leadership are equal weight. This was also the explanation indicative personae – two of the long stand- offered by BSP leader Mihail Mikov, who ing deputy chairmen of the party – Dimitar stated that the German variation of a wide Dabov and Evgeni Uzunov. The third person coalition between left and right was not pos- dismissed was the former Minister of Defense sible in Bulgaria at that moment, because and long serving BSP spokesman Angel Naid- GERB and BSP would have a total of 123 enov. The motif for his dismissal from the MPs in a house of 240 seats. Executive Bureau was that Naidenov was a The weak results of BSP resulted in Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Group changes of the leadership of the party. Mikov and it was necessary to separate party en- was urged by his fellow party members to gagements from those in Parliament. start reforms in BSP, without which the party In his capacity of Deputy Chairman would continue to shrink in electoral terms. Dabov was in charge of the organizational Kiril Dobrev was among the people in BSP affairs in the party. The recent secretary in who spoke most eloquently of the need charge of the media Anton Kutev and Stan- for reform in the party. According to him islav Vladimirov will be entrusted with this the party lost its positions because of three task and both of them will be organization- people in the leadership – Dimitar Dabov, Ev- al secretaries. geni Uzunov and Katya Nikolova, “who have Mikov kept the former deputy chairmen been sitting on the podium of each single Yanaki Stoilov and Dragomir Stoinev, and congress of the party since 1990”. Dobrev nominated yet another deputy – Boyko Ve- B AROMETE R 4/2014 9

likov. Georgi Pirinski, who was also deputy proclaims values that are incompatible with chairman of the party will no longer have the Euro-Atlantic orientation of the country. the position, as he became a Member of Lyutvi Mestan even wrote a letter to EPP the European Parliament. leader Joseph Daul where he expressed his concern that EPP member parties like GERB 2.2.2. MRF and RB participate in a coalition with ex- MRF attained some of the best results in treme nationalists who do not respect Eu- parliamentary elections so far and the par- ropean values. ty will have 38 MPs in the new parliament. When the new government of Boyko Party leader Lyutvi Mestan is Chairman of Borisov was voted into Parliament, Lyutvi the parliamentary group. Former minister Mestan stated that his party would be a cat- of Environment in the Oresharski cabinet egorical opposition to the majority where Stanislav Atanasov and the members of nationalists take part. The reasons were parliament Tuncher Kurdzhaliev and Feri- the insurmountable difference in values be- han Ahmedova were elected his deputies. tween MRF as a and the PF as Secretary of the parliamentary group is the an antipode to liberalism. Mestan accused lawyer Chetin Kazak. Borisov that he opted for a union with na- was elected Member of tionalists rather than the support by MRF as Parliament yet again. He had not attended a result of the ungrounded ‘satanization’ sessions in the plenary hall since his short- of the movement. Yet again Mestan noted lived election for Chairman of the State that the attempt to put MRF in isolation Agency for National Security that gave rise may have dangerous consequences for the to protests last summer. ethnic and religious peace in the country. After the elections MRF fell into politi- cal isolation, which became apparent during 2.2.3. Bulgarian Democratic the consultations GERB held with the other Center (BDC) parliamentary represented political forces for After entering the 43rd National Assembly forming a government. MRF stated that they the Bulgaria without Censorship coalition would unconditionally support a minority of Nikolay Barekov renamed themselves cabinet of GERB only, or of GERB and the Re- to Parliamentary Group Bulgarian Demo- formist Bloc without any participation on the cratic Center. The leadership of the group government on their part. Lyutvi Mestan said presented their motives for the change as that his party would even give a ‘600 days the intent of the parties in the coalition to tolerance” to such a cabinet if they commit- position themselves in the political center. ted to implementing the necessary reforms. The parliamentary group of BDC comprises According to Lyutvi Mestan the vote of 14 MPs. Svetlin Tanchev was elected Chair- the electorate had clearly demonstrated that man of the group. He was a GERB MP in the there should be a center-right government previous parliament, but left the party after formed in the country and that MRF would disagreement with the policies of the lead- support such a cabinet. Nonetheless, the MRF ership. Deputy Chairmen are Kuncho Filipov leader opposed sharply a new coalition with from the Leader Party and Rumen Yonchev the participation of the Patriotic Front. Mestan from the Agrarian Popular Union. called it an “anti-European” coalition because BDC was the first parliamentary group a national-populist party was part of it, which to be left by an MP elected on its lists. Anna 10 B AROMETE R 4/2014

Barakova, who was elected MP in mal leader. This is why in the mid-term it is left the party even before the first session of possible to have situational re-grouping, in the house was convened, and became the one direction or another, of the parties that first MP not to be a member of any parlia- compose the parliamentary group Bulgar- mentary group. ian Democratic Center. Nikolay Barekov, who was elected MP, chose to stay an MEP. In this way Barekov 2.2.4. “Ataka” in practical terms withdrew from the inter- Despite the expectations of a number of an- nal politics of this country. Proof of this is alysts, “Ataka” managed to overcome the that he had limited media exposure and less 4% barrier in the last elections too. Among public appearances last month. the main reasons for that are the increase in After the elections BDC took some electricity prices that the caretaker govern- controversial and unequivocal positions. ment passed a week prior to the elections, Barekov stated many times that he would and which made some extreme left voters be in opposition to GERB, but at the same vote for Ataka. The position of the party on time in the name of political stability he the sanctions against and the con- claimed that he would be prepared to sup- flict in the attracted in its turn some port an expert government with wider par- pro-Russian voters. Not insignificant for the liamentary support. success of “Ataka” was also the low turn- The talks GERB had with BDC within out in the elections, which made it possible the consultations initiated by the party that for smaller parties to enter parliament. won the elections were interrupted due to In his speech at the opening of the 43rd “insurmountable differences in values” to National Assembly Volen Siderov criticized quote GERB’s Menda Stoyanova. EU policies yet again. According to him the When voting the line-up of the cabinet current EU does not protect the interests of proposed by Borisov, BDC supported Bor- the member states and their peoples, and isov’s nomination for Prime Minister but this is why it “has to be disbanded”. The was against the composition of the govern- “Ataka” leader addressed the ambassadors ment. This position of BDC should be re- present in the plenary hall to convey to their garded as a signal to GERB and Boyko Bor- capital to “stop the sanctions against Rus- isov that Barekov’s formation would support sia immediately”, because in this way they the government on certain topics only. “are commiting suicide against their own On the whole, the BDC parliamentary nations”. Siderov added that Bulgaria “does group is mixed in terms of composition, not want to be pushed into war against our because different parties have representa- saviors”. “You did it on two occasions and tives in it. In the future this might result in both times we waged a war that ended in controversies in it and even split it up. The national catastrophe, we are not going to reasons are to a great extent in the high allow it to happen a third time,” he added. corporate dependence of the Bulgaria with- The parliamentary group of “Ataka” out Censorship project. The Leader Party, comprises 11 MPs. Desislav Chukolov and which is connected to the businessman Prof. Stanislav Stanilov were elected Deputy Hristo Kovachki might also prove unpredict- Chairmen. The lawyer Yavor Notev will be able as a partner from the point of view of Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly the personal business interest of their infor- from the quota of “Ataka”. B AROMETE R 4/2014 11

Immediately after the elections Ataka due to the mixed nature of the parties that made it clear that it will be in radical op- support the government. It is possible in position. The party refused to attend the the mid-term that the government relies consultations GERB initiated with the other on thematic parliamentary majorities to parliamentary represented parties. implement certain policies and legislative GERB stated that in the spirit of good decisions. parliamentary tradition they would give the 2. The victory in the elections and the opportunity to the opposition parliamenta- appointment of a government led by Boyko ry groups to chair one of the parliamentary Borisov is of paramount importance for GERB committees. However, Siderov declined this to be established as a leading political force proposal. in this country. Borisov is the first politician to Siderov did not attend the consultations be Prime Minister for a second time after the at the office of the President, which take beginning of the democratic changes in this place prior to giving the mandate for ap- country. GERB’s leader is trying to demon- pointing a government to the largest par- strate a new political image, different from liamentary group. He said that he would the one during his first term of office. This re- not attend any kind of talks behind closed flects on the style and the behavior of GERB doors. The leader of “Ataka” said that he which, at least for the time being, shows a would go to the consultations only if TV willingness for dialogue, seeking consensus cameras were allowed in. and a new coalition culture. As mandate car- rier GERB will bear the main political respon- 3. Main Conclusions and Forecasts sibility of the government, which is why the party will focus its effort on supporting the 1. Forming a government regularly elected Executive authority. by the National Assembly was an impor- 3. The Reformist Bloc attained one of its tant step in the direction of overcoming goals – representation in Parliament and the political and parliamentary crisis in this participation in the Executive. At the same country. Despite the difficulties that the time the Bloc is facing some serious chal- process of forming the government went lenges related to assertion of its unity. The through, at this stage it will enjoy the nec- controversies between DSB and BCM on essary parliamentary support needed for convening a congress to elect a party leader passing the budget for next year and the are heading towards undermining the frag- financial stabilization of the country. These ile center-right coalition. This, in its turn, are the urgent measures that the ruling ma- creates a danger for the integrity of the rul- jority has to resolve in the short-term. The ing coalition. RB took on the most difficult economic situation remains complex. Lack and unreformed sectors in the government, of investment and almost zero economic which might bring them additional nega- growth do not allow the economy to over- tives if there are no quick results in the lines come the crisis. The not reformed sectors, that their ministers are in charge of. like healthcare, education, the pension sys- 4. The Patriotic front is a coalition of tem and energy, worsen the economic and nationalist parties, which showed that it is social problems. The new ruling majority an unstable partner of GERB. The threats to promised that they will commit to reforms withdraw the support for the government if which, however, look difficult to carry out, Deputy Minister of Defense Orhan Ismailov 12 B AROMETE R 4/2014

is not replaced proved that PF is a formation cabinet of GERB and RB without partici- which the government can hardly depend pating in it with their own representatives, on in the mid- and long-term. On the other which was categorically rejected by the lat- hand, PF support for Borisov’s government ter two. MRF stated that they will be in op- creates an image problem in Europe. Criti- position to a government supported by na- cal voices were heard coming from Europe tionalists. The criticism toward MRF over the against their participation in the govern- past years and its negative image in society ment coalition. are due not to its electoral profile but to its 5. With ABV taking part in the govern- corporate and oligarchic dependencies. ment, the ruling majority expanded their sup- 8. BDC’s role has become less and less port for the left political wing. Taking part in significant over the past month. The main the government is undoubtedly a challenge reason for that is the decision of Nikolai for a new political formation like ABV, but Barekov to stay an MEP and not an MP in it is also an opportunity to establish itself by the Bulgarian National Assembly as elected. taking on political responsibility in one of the It seems that this decision will reflect on the most sensitive sectors – social policy. image of the formation, which was mainly 6. BSP refused to take part in a wide related to him. At this stage BDC has rather coalition, which GERB proposed, and the an oppositional behavior, which does not party remained in opposition. The main exclude support for the government on cer- challenge BSP is faced with is an internal re- tain topics. form that brings the party back on track as 9. “Ataka” will be an extreme anti- a leading political force. At this stage Mihail system opposition, which was seen in the Mikov is content with some insignificant behavior of the party over the past month. changes of the leadership, which will hardly Most likely it will rely on the same strategy be enough if that does not go hand in hand in the future too. For the first time, Ataka with a realistic evaluation of the problems has a real competitor in the nationalist field of the party and an overall strategy for its – the Patriotic Front. This will make its rhet- political and ideological renewal. oric even more radical, particularly given 7. MRF fell into political isolation. The the current situation, where PF still supports party offered their support to a center-right Borisov’s government.

About the editor: Professor, Doctor of Philosophy, Georgi Karasimeonov teaches at “St. Clement of Ohrid”, Director of the Institute for Political and Legal Studies and editor of “Political Research.” He was Chairman of the Bulgarian Political Science Association from 1991 to 1998. Contact: [email protected] Georgi Karasimeonov (Ed.) B A R O M E T E R Bulgaria’s Political Parties Year 14, Issue 2, April - June 2014

The results of the elections for European Parliament predetermined the fate of the government. The two parties in power – BSP and MRF – did not receive sufficient electoral support to be used as reasoning for continuation of the operations of the cabinet. The decision for holding preterm parliamentary elections on October 5th is a way to resolve the political and parliamentary crisis which this country has been facing for almost one year.

Inducing preterm parliamentary elections was one of the goals GERB has had over the past year. The victory in the European Parliament elections gives the party the opportunity to come to power yet again after the preterm elections. The most important question GERB has to answer regards finding partners for a future government.

BSP suffered a severe loss, which means the party faces serious political challenges in the future. The decision of Stanishev to become a Member of the European Parlia- ment will probably enhance the centrifugal processes in the party in view of electing a new party leader. Despite the declaration of Stanishev that he will remain party president, this will hardly be possible, due to his engagements in Brussels. The major challenge for BSP in the forthcoming elections will be the motivation of its traditional supporters to vote.

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