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SkyScoop The Newsletter of the National Service in Wilmington, Ohio

ISSUE 15 FALL/ 2007-2008 2007: A Year of Wild Weather

Dan Hawblitzel

2007 seemed like a roller coaster ride, taking the Ohio Valley through bitter cold snaps, record heat, a devastating late freeze and a significant . The year began with a prolonged warm spell that began in early December 2006, with 37 straight days of above-average temperatures into the middle of January. As a result, both Columbus and Cincinnati only reported 0.1” of in December 2006, which was the least snowfall ever recorded for the An hits Cincinnati in February, and extreme drought parches northern Kentucky in late month in Columbus. August. Photos courtesy of Robin Mahan and Julia Sells.

Following the unseasonably warm start to 2007, the pattern changed significantly and temperatures plummeted to below normal by late January; they continued to fall to record levels by the middle of February. Temperatures remained below normal until the end of February. The temperature at Dayton dropped below zero 6 times in February, and reached zero degrees or colder 9 times, which was a record for the month. This prolonged cold spell gave Dayton its 2nd coldest February on record with an average temperature of 18.4 degrees, and Columbus and Cincinnati both recorded their 3rd coldest Februarys ever (with average temperatures of 21.2 degrees and 22.7 degrees respectively). Along with the cold came a significant on February 13. This system led to near- conditions across west central Ohio, and produced a significant ice storm from southern Indiana into the Cincinnati and Columbus metro areas where ice accumulated up to an inch thick. (Continued on page 5)

INSIDE THIS ISSUE: Spotters got the word out!

A Letter from the WCM 2 As you may remember, radar alone cannot tell a meteorologist if a is on the ground or if The Enhanced Fujita Scale 3 severe winds or are occurring. This is where you come in! The National Weather Service in and in the Tri-State Area 4 Wilmington received countless real-time and tornado reports during the 2007 sea- Wilmington’s Upper Air Upgrade 5 son. These reports led to improved warning time, The Graphical Forecast Editor 6 and gave people the heads up they needed to pro- tect themselves and their property.

Storm-Based Warnings 7 Thank you spotters for helping us continue our mission! The NWS Incident Meteorologist Program 7 NWS Wilmington online: http://www.weather.gov/iln -- Email: [email protected] PAGEISSUE 2 15 SKYSCOOP PAGE 2 ISSUE 15

A Letter from the Warning Coordination Meteorologist

Hello Spotters and Emergency Managers,

It is hard to believe, but the current year is rapidly coming to a close. We began the year with the loss of a staff member who worked very diligently in the outreach area. Greg Tipton was a lead forecaster here and was known to many of you through spotter training and other outreach efforts. He has been missed by his colleagues, but we have continued to benefit from his efforts in the areas of spotter training and outreach.

WFO Wilmington’s forecast area saw fewer than the normal number of severe weather events during the and . The biggest story of the year through November was probably the drought in parts of southern Ohio, Indiana, and northern Kentucky. There is more on that subject in this newsletter. There are other articles in the newsletter that we hope you find in- teresting, such as an article on forest weather support and the installation of a new radiosonde/weather balloon system.

Although 2007 was a relatively slow severe weather year, I want to again thank our many volunteer spotters. You can provide very valuable information during severe weather, which can result in lives saved. Your dedication, which is expressed by at- tending training classes and providing severe weather reports when you have the appropriate information, is appreciated.

This newsletter is for you. If you have suggestions for a weather related topic(s) that you would like to see in the newsletter, please email them to the webmaster at our website. Please keep an eye on our website for updated schedules of spotter training classes. Again, thank you for your severe weather reports. We hope to see you at another training class during the next year.

Sincerely,

Mary Jo Parker Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Wilmington, Ohio

Got an Exciting Weather Photo? We Want to Hear from You!

The National Weather Service in Wilmington wants to make it possible for weather spotters across the tri-state region to show- case their weather photos to the world! We have introduced a “photo gallery” on the front page of our website. If you have a picture you’d like to share, we’d love to hear from you! Examples of photos we’d like to receive include: • features such as: • • Wall • Hail • Shelf clouds • Storm damage • Funnel clouds • Heavy /flooding • Turbulent clouds • Heavy snow • Optical phenomena • Icing/ • • Other phenomena

To participate, send your photos or any other questions to [email protected]. Video will also be accepted, but please contact us first to arrange a way to send any unusually large files. Remember to express your permission for your credited work to be displayed on our website and possibly used in spotter training courses. Anyone is welcome to participate!

Please be careful! Lightning, flooding, tornadoes, and ice make for great photography -- but great danger as well. The staff of the National Weather Service urges everyone to respect the weather and take photographs only when it is safe to do so. ISSUE 15 SKYSCOOP PAGE 3 NWS Introduces the Enhanced Fujita Scale for

Mike Ryan

The National Weather Service implemented the Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale on February 1. This new scale replaced the original Fujita Scale, which was developed by Dr. T. Theo- dore Fujita in 1971 as a method to rate tornadoes and estimate wind speed based on the damage observed. The new EF Scale was developed as a collaborated effort between the Texas Tech University Wind Engineering and Science Center, along with a forum of nationally renowned meteorologists and engi- neers. The enhanced scale addresses the limitations of the original Fujita Scale, which included a lack of damage indica- tors (DI), no definitive correlation between wind speed and damage, and an inability to account for construction quality and variability. These limitations often led to inconsistencies in tornado ratings and, in some cases, an overestimation of tornado wind speeds.

The EF Scale will continue to rate tornadoes from 0 to 5, but the ranges of wind speeds in each category are now more ac- curate. The scale incorporates 28 damage indicators such as building type, structures and vegetation. For each damage indicator, there are several degrees of damage ranging from the be- ginning of visible damage to the destruction of the indicator. This will allow for the meteorologist surveying the damage to make a more accurate assessment of the damage.

Our office was able to use the EF Scale for the first time on April 26, as an intense moved across por- tions of northeast Kentucky and south-central Ohio. The supercell produced two separate tornadoes in eastern Adams and north- east Pike Counties. The Adams County tornado was determined to be an EF-0 with wind speeds near 80 mph. The Pike County tornado was rated EF-1 with wind speeds near 90 mph. A third tornado produced EF-0 damage in northern Brown County, with wind speeds estimated near 80 mph.

Remembering Greg Tipton

Mike Ryan

Lead forecaster Greg Tipton passed away suddenly on January 6, 2007 at the age of 38. He is survived by his college sweetheart Jean, and their two boys Galen (13) and Nathan (10). Greg graduated from Pennsylvania State University in 1990 and joined the NWS at the Dayton weather office in 1991 as a Meteorologist Intern. He was promoted to a forecaster position at WFO Minnea- polis. During his time in Minneapolis, he received several awards and a bronze medal for his accomplishments in working se- vere weather events. In 1998, Greg became a lead forecaster at WFO Wil- mington Ohio. Greg was an outstanding employee with a positive attitude and someone who cared greatly about his customers and the people he worked with. He constantly sought ways to get more involved with custom- ers to understand their needs, and was largely responsible for the success and expansion of the office snow and storm spotter networks over the last several years.

Among the many things that Greg will be remembered for the most are his commit- ment towards serving customers and his passion for . Greg will be sorely missed and the void that he has left will remain for a long time. Greg’s family, friends, and coworkers gathered on August 19 to dedicate a tree in his memory. PAGE 4 SKYSCOOP ISSUE 15 10th Anniversary of the 1997 Event

Julie Dian-Reed

Overview of the flood event It remains the single worst since NWS Wilmington Ohio began warning responsibility in late 1994. The 1997 flood claimed 13 lives across our area of responsibility (with a total of 33 lives lost across the Ohio valley). Total damage estimated from the flood through all the impacted areas of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky was approximately $500 million. In Kentucky, both the Licking and Kentucky rivers experienced record flooding, as did Ohio Brush Creek in Ohio. Along the Ohio River, entire communities experienced major flooding, with thousands of homes inundated. Many communities in Kentucky, Ohio and Indi- ana experienced 3 to 7 feet of water in homes and businesses from the Ohio River. The Ohio River at Cincinnati crested at 64.7’ on March 5th, which is nearly 13 feet above flood stage. What must be realized is that as devastating as the Ohio River flood was in 1997, this was only the 9th highest crest in the 149 year history of river gage readings at Cincinnati. The flood along the Ohio River can be characterized as a ’30-year’ flood. This does not mean that such a crest is only experienced every 30 years, but rather, in any given year, there is a 1 in 30 chance of such a flood occurring.

What has changed since the flood? Three years after the 1997 flood, the U.S. Geological Survey installed automated river gages at both Blue Licks Springs and McKinneysburg, KY. These gages had to be cut in 1994 after financial cooperators with the USGS reduced gage funding. During the 1997 flood, river stage and flow data in much of the middle Licking basin was not available. The addition of these gages helps to monitor not only the height of the river as a crest approaches floodplain communities such as Falmouth, but also how fast the river is rising. During the 1997 flood, the Licking River rose 49 feet in about 36 hours. The record crest of 51.8’ ex- ceeded the previous record by nearly 5 feet, resulting in devastation over about 80% of the town. Compounding the record crest was the rate of the rise, which was difficult to monitor during the flood. The installation of the McKinneysburg and Blue Licks Springs gages, as well as the existing automated gage at Catawba, will allow for better monitoring. In addition, continual updates in model calibration of the Licking River basin will yield better forecasts during flood events. Drought “Grows” into Middle Ohio Valley

Julie Dian-Reed

Southern Ohio, northern Kentucky and southeast Indiana have endured extreme drought conditions, with some areas as much as 13 to 14 inches below normal rainfall for the year. In Kentucky, the deficits began nearly a year ago, as drought conditions in the southeast expanded north. Drought can occur in this manner, in which an area adjacent to existing drought be- comes drier over time. Drought can also perpetuate itself during the summer months, as lack of low level moisture results in ap- proaching rainfall to become more scattered or isolated, and only a few small areas end up receiving the beneficial rainfall.

While most locations north of the Ohio River had a wet fall and winter of 2006/2007 (including severe flooding in portions of central Ohio last October), a dry weather pattern in the southeast United States was beginning to expand into Kentucky. As the warmer began, that same persistent dry weather pattern from the southeast was continuing to expand northward. Some locations along and south of the Ohio River reported less than a half inch of rain for the entire month of May (normal is about 4.5”). The dry weather persisted into June, and then spotty relief came into early-mid July. Even with dry early summer condi- tions, the drought did not expand rapidly, as temperatures of June/July were cool. If this period had been very warm, evaporation would have been greater, and drought conditions would have worsened more rapidly.

The extreme August heat allowed the drought to expand and worsen rapidly. August rainfall was sharply different from north to south; northern areas were very wet, while much of the south experienced one of the driest Augusts on record. By month’s end, there was only a 30 mile separation between ‘near normal’ rainfall to ‘extreme drought’ conditions. Several county extension agents near and south of the Ohio River reported corn and soybean losses as high as 60%. Hay and pasture has been hit the hard- est. Many farmers and horse owners are paying high prices for hay and having to haul water, resulting in dramatically increased livestock sales. Many are concerned about the supply of winter forage for livestock. Lake and well levels in some areas are also well below normal.

The winter outlook this year for Ohio is quite uncertain. The fall will experience near to below normal rainfall, while the winter outlook is for slightly above normal precipitation. This forecast is heavily based on the assumption that the current La Nina pat- tern will hold. There is some speculation that the La Nina pattern will break down by early winter, which would result in a dry to near normal winter. Even with October’s above normal precipitation, sufficient soil moisture recharge is not likely to occur. If not recharged, there will be an even greater concern for drought during the 2008 growing season. ISSUE 15 SKYSCOOP PAGE 5 Wilmington Upper Air Program gets a much needed update

Mike Gallagher

The upper air program at the National Weather Service office was given an update this past spring, as the old tracking system was replaced with a modern antenna with much improved capabilities. The new system is known as the Radiosonde Replace- ment System (RRS). The tracking system works through the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking, a better-reacting antenna, and new improved radiosondes.

The older tracking system was an old radar antenna adopted for use as a sonde tracking system, consisting of tubes and some modifications for upgrade over the final years of operation. The antenna itself was not capable of tracking a target that went above 85 degrees in angular movement, or a target that went overhead. This would lock the antenna, and the operator would have to turn the tracking system off and manually track the sonde. This would be a guessing game if skies were cloudy. The newer system’s antenna will track over- head, as it is constructed with a u-shape mount, and has no restrictions limiting angular movement. The newer antenna also moves faster and will swing more rapidly when tracking an overhead balloon.

The new radiosondes that are in use have been updated with a GPS tracking system. This is a better system as it produces a more accurate picture of movement and positioning of the sonde. This in turn will improve the accuracy of the wind speed and direction, which is critical in the pro- duction of analysis charts of current weather. This, in The old and new tracking systems. Images courtesy NOAA. turn, helps produce a more accurate set of forecasts.

2007 Highlights

(continued from page 1)

Temperatures returned to above normal in March as readings rose into the 70s and lower 80s by the end of the month. This brought March 2007 into the top 10 warmest at Dayton, Cincinnati and Columbus. The much-above average temperatures were a welcome relief to the earlier bitter cold snap and allowed for an early start to the growing season. However many budding plants were devastated in April as temperatures again plummeted to below average and a prolonged deep freeze settled into the Ohio Valley. Light snow even fell in many areas on Easter Sunday.

Vegetation which survived April’s deep freeze was in for a very stressful summer as conditions rapidly began to dry out in May. Cincinnati’s 0.37 inches of precipitation made for its 3rd driest May on record, and Columbus’s May total was among its top 10 driest. One observer in south central Ohio reported no precipitation at all for the entire month. Drought conditions continued to deteriorate through the summer, and by the end of August, much of southern Ohio, northern Kentucky and southeast Indiana had been classified as extreme drought. From May 1 through August 31, Cincinnati only recorded 5.12” of rain which was its 2nd driest such period on record (beating out the dust bowl years of the 1930s). Drought conditions near the Ohio River were exacerbated by an unusual in August. At Cincinnati, the temperature rose to 100 degrees or higher 5 times during the month of August, which was a record for the month. Cincinnati also set a record for the most days at or above 90 degrees in any month, reaching 90 degrees 25 times in August. All this hot weather brought Cincinnati to its hottest August on record. Its average August temperature of 81.6 degrees broke the old record by nearly a degree and a half. Above normal temperatures persisted through September and into October, with the first 90 degree readings in October in decades.

October eventually brought about a chance of pace, as Cincinnati recorded 7.07 inches of precipitation in October (good for the 5th wettest on record). With so much rainfall across the region, the drought finally reached its conclusion. ISSUEPAGE 615 SKYSCOOP PAGE 6 ISSUE 15

“Different Strokes” - Painting a NWS Forecast Using GFE

Andy Hatzos

Ever wondered exactly how a forecast is generated? In the modern era of the National Weather Service, forecasts are not typed as text – rather, they are drawn on a map!

To create these meteorological works of art, forecasters use computer software known as the Graphical Forecast Editor – GFE for short. GFE allows a forecaster to edit “grids” – that is, maps that contain each element of a weather forecast. These ele- ments include high temperature, surface wind speed and direction, and the type of weather expected, among others. A fore- caster is free to change these grids in a number of ways, using different tools provided by the software. For example, a high temperature forecast can be raised or lowered, depending on observed conditions. This can be done across the entire forecast area, or just a small section. Grids can also be imported directly from other available sources, such as computer models and current observations.

GFE forecast grids for high temperatures (left), probability of precipitation (center), and winds (right). Images courtesy NOAA.

In the past, text forecasts were generated by hand. This process, as one can imagine, was very time-consuming – especially in weather situations where frequent updates to the forecast were necessary. With GFE, the production of text forecasts is as easy as a few clicks on a computer screen. The GFE software is programmed to look through all of the grids that have been created, and use that informa- tion to generate a text forecast. This text forecast is used in many different ways, such as broadcast on NOAA , and dissemination to the media.

When a forecaster is finished with his or her grids, the en- tire set of forecast elements is uploaded to the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). In the NDFD, grids are stored from every weather service office in the entire na- tion! With the input from meteorologists from coast to coast, a complete picture of the nation’s weather can be painted – for today, tomorrow, and the entire upcoming week.

A text forecast formatted by GFE. Image courtesy NOAA. ISSUE 15 SKYSCOOP PAGE 7 NWS Unveils New Warning System

Dan Hawblitzel

On October 1, 2007, the National Weather Service changed the way it issues severe thunderstorm, tornado and flood warnings. Under the old system, the NWS had been issuing warnings on a county-by-county basis. The new sys- tem employs storm-based warnings to show the specific threat area, which are not restricted to geopolitical boundaries. These warnings use latitude and lon- gitude points to construct a polygon-shaped warning area to depict the highest threat area corresponding to a storm’s expected path. By focusing on the true threat area, warning polygons are expected to improve NWS warning accuracy and quality by removing unaffected portions of a county from the warning. For instance, a severe thunderstorm moving across downtown Cincinnati will trigger a warning only for southeastern Hamilton county instead of the entire county.

Storm-based warnings promote improved graphical warning displays to make An example of storm-based warnings overlaid on radar it easier to visualize a storm’s path. on the NWS website. Image courtesy NOAA. The new warning system allows for delivery to cell phones, PDAs and other wireless devices (some wireless carriers may charge a fee for these services). On TV, the way the new storm-based warnings are viewed will depend on the television station. Some stations may display the poly- gon while others may still highlight the affected counties. However, radio listeners (including NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards) will not hear much change. In this case, designations such as “northwest Union county” will still be used to convey the storm’s path. NOAA weather radios will still alarm on a county basis.

Incident Meteorologists (IMETs)

John Franks

Scattered across the nation, there is a group of about 70 meteorologists that are called up and dispatched from their home units on a moments notice to provide specialized, on-site, 24 hour meteorological support to incidents of national significance. These forecasters are called IMETs (short for Incident METeorologist). In Wilmington, I have been serving in this capacity since 2002. I have been to several in Oregon, Idaho, California, and Montana, and provided weather support to FEMA and the Republican National Convention in New York City.

Typically, the incidents that require IMET support are large western where the Incident Command Structure (ICS) is employed to effectively organize personnel and equip- ment from various local, state, and federal agencies. Other incidents where IMETs have been dispatched include the Columbia space shuttle disaster, large HAZMAT spills such as ship wrecks, in the wake of hurricanes (Katrina and Rita), and other high-profile national security events such as the Democratic and Republican National Conventions. (Continued on page 8) PAGE 8 SKYSCOOP ISSUE 15 Incident Meteorologists (IMETs)

(continued from page 7)

When the IMET first arrives at the fire camp, he goes through a check-in process and sets up his personal tent where he will sleep with the fire support crews. Fire camp is located near or within a few miles of the fire so that the firefighters can wake up and hit the ground running. Unfortunately for the IMET, this usually means that he is well off the beaten path, without commu- nications and often without commercial electricity. At camp, loud diesel generators run 24/7 to provide electricity, which is all the IMET really needs. The IMET comes equipped with a 2-way satellite communications unit and laptop. Once connected, he can browse the internet for weather information and use FX-Net, a specially designed computer program that mimics the system used at NWS forecast offices.

Once the computer is connected to a satellite, the next step for an IMET is to get the lay of the land, which consists of hiking, driving, and/or flying the fire. He needs to do this to see how terrain will affect larger weather pat- terns, and observe how it often creates its own small scale weather and wind features. Being in such close proximity to the fire, he has to undergo special training each year to review standards for survival and practicing deploy- ing fire shelters, a last resort for a firefighter when they cannot outrun a fire or get to a safety zone in time.

The workday is long, starting around 4 a.m. and not ending until 9 or 10 p.m. The work is stressful, both physically and mentally, but extremely rewarding when those who use the weather information express their gratitude for accurate forecasts.

Whether in a planning meeting of 10 or 20 people working to keep the front line firefighters safe for their next shift, or at a morning briefing of a few hundred firefighters, it is a moment of instant job satisfaction to know that your forecast is helping these people do their jobs safely and effectively.

IMET on the web: http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/magazine/imet/welcome.html http://www.noaawatch.gov/themes/fire.php For more information on wildfires, see: http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/

The National Weather Service office in Wilmington, Ohio -- by day and by night. ISSUE 15 SKYSCOOP PAGE 9 ARE YOU READY FOR WINTER? This winter season, don’t be caught off guard in a life-threatening situation. Here are some tips and reminders to ensure you are ready for the season.

For a wind chill chart, more information on winter weather safety, and plenty of other items, visit: http://www.weather.gov/om/winterstorm/winterstorms.pdf

A Disaster Supplies Kit NOAA Weather Radio Should Include: A NOAA Weather Radio • A 3-day supply of water (NWR) All Hazards is your (one gallon per person, per day) best tool for receiving • Food that won't spoil important information • One change of clothing and shoes during a hazardous weather per person event. These radios are • Portable radio equipped with alarm toned • Flashlight with extra batteries features that will give • Extra set of car keys immediate information • Cash and a credit card during a life-threatening • Special items for infant, elderly or situation. Having a disabled family members battery-powered radio is • One blanket or sleeping bag per especially important in the person winter, when extreme • First-aid kit conditions can result in • Prescription medicines power outages for hours or even days. It is also very important overnight, when • Emergency tools a sleeping person may miss a warning if not for the alarm feature of a weather • Battery-powered NWR radio. Check with your local electronics or department store to purchase a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.

KNOW YOUR WINTER WEATHER TERMS

The National Weather Service reminds residents to keep abreast of local forecasts and warnings and familiarize themselves with key weather terminology. For information on the terms used by the National Weather Service, visit: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s794c.htm

Your spotter reports are very important to the warning process during winter storms. Here is a reminder of what and when to report:

∗ 1” or more of snow per hour - (Anytime)

∗ 1” or more of snow in past 24 hrs. Preferably between 5-8 AM and 5-8 PM

∗ Total snow depth. Preferably between 5-8 AM and 5-8 PM.

∗ When you first measure 2”, 4”, and 6” (Anytime)

∗ Any / - (Anytime)

∗ Thunder or lightning associated with snow/sleet/freezing rain - (Anytime) National Weather Service 1901 S. State Route 134 Wilmington, OH 45177

www.weather.gov/iln/